Potential Future Conditions Research Articles

Climate change influence on the trends of BFRs in the environment and food

Climate change poses new challenges for environmental protection and food safety. With reported consequences including warmer temperatures, melting of Alpine glaciers, higher sea levels, droughts, extreme rainfall events and increased surface UV radiation, concerns about the impact on food contaminants have been raised. While the effects of climate change on POPs were initially expected to have the biggest impact in the arctic region, given the intensity, frequency and spread of extreme weather events, global influence on environmental pollution and food safety is currently anticipated.Warmer temperatures are expected to enhance the volatilization of POPs and influence their partitioning between soil, sediment, water and atmosphere, enhancing their mobility and their potential for long-range atmospheric transport. Floods and strong winds can cause dilution but also spread of pollutants to wider areas. Limited data are available for the impact of climate change on BFRs levels, trends and toxicity. BFRs are widely used to protect people from fire hazards. Numerous BFR containing products are disposed in landfills where climate change could possibly induce increased leaching and resulting impacts on the food chain. Heat and UV exposure can lead to degradation of novel polymeric BFRs with adverse environmental effects.Long-term monitoring data are needed for feed, food and environmental compartments in order to evaluate climate change influence, which will also enable the development of prediction models specific for legacy and novel BFRs, for various climate change scenarios. Furthermore, there is a need to promote further discussion in the scientific community for the design of risk management and remediation activities for contaminated areas, in response to potential future conditions as the climate continues to change.

Environmental Insights: Democratizing access to ambient air pollution data and predictive analytics with an open-source Python package

Ambient air pollution is a pervasive issue with wide-ranging effects on human health, ecosystem vitality, and economic structures. Utilizing data on ambient air pollution concentrations, researchers can perform comprehensive analyses to uncover the multifaceted impacts of air pollution across society. To this end, we introduce Environmental Insights, an open-source Python package designed to democratize access to air pollution concentration data. This tool enables users to easily retrieve historical air pollution data and employ a Machine Learning model for forecasting potential future conditions. Moreover, Environmental Insights includes a suite of tools aimed at facilitating the dissemination of analytical findings and enhancing user engagement through dynamic visualizations. This comprehensive approach ensures that the package caters to the diverse needs of individuals looking to explore and understand air pollution trends and their implications. Code repository clickable linkEnvironmental Insights Github Home Page.

Mapping past and future shipping noise in European seas

Against the backdrop of a steadily increasing demand for sea transport of goods and people, the development of a reliable marine shipping soundscape model is an essential planning requirement to assess the effect on ocean noise of operational and technological changes aimed at mitigating the environmental impact of the shipping sector. The NAVISON (Navis Sonus) project, conducted with the support of the European Maritime Safety Agency, employs a specially developed parametric vessel source model with the objective of producing shipping sound maps in European seas for past, present, and potential future conditions over a time span from 2016 to 2050. The source model is combined with historical ship tracking data from the automated identification system (AIS), or projected shipping densities and mitigation scenarios, to calculate spatial ship noise emissions data for input to a sound mapping tool. The mapping tool computes underwater sound propagation using the parabolic-equation method, drawing upon ocean-scale databases of bathymetric, oceanographic, and sediment properties. Project outputs are provided as map layers of sound pressure level and sound energy according to vessel type, season, region, year, and operational conditions; from these layers, maps can be generated for user-specified combinations of mitigation measures. Maps are presented in two frequency bands (centred at 63 Hz and 125 Hz) selected for assessing Good Environmental Status in the context of the European Union’s Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Scenario Development for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Utilization Concepts Using Steel Mill Exhaust Gases with Linear Optimization Models

Utilizing exhaust gases from the steel mill generation to produce chemicals presents a promising avenue for carbon capture and utilization (CCU) concepts. Employing a model-based mathematical approach, specifically mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), enables the identification of optimal production concepts. To evaluate the long-term feasibility under uncertain future conditions, the construction of hypothetical scenarios to depict possible future states is necessary. This study introduces novel and tailored scenarios for a specific CCU concept aimed at producing methanol, ammonia, urea and/or acetic acid from steel mill exhaust gases by the year 2040 to enhance decision-making processes for identifying the optimal concept. These scenarios provide comprehensive insights into potential future conditions, spanning technical, economic and ecological domains. Unlike prior studies that focus on individual key factors, this approach involves analyzing the interactions of 24 identified key factors within the investigated CCU concept. The method yields five distinct scenarios: (1) Business as Usual (BAU), (2) CO2 Reduction and Renewable Energy Target (RE-Boom), (3) Technical Improvement and Market Booming (Market-Boom), (4) Energy and Market Crisis (Crisis) and (5) Hydrogen Booming (H2-Boom). These five scenarios can be directly integrated into MILP models, enhancing the significance of the optimization results for identifying the optimal CCU concept.

PepsiCo's Earnings Analysis and Strategic Management - Based on SWOT and PF5 Analysis

Global production and economic conditions are gradually shifting and improving as the COVID-19 scenario throughout the world evolves. Studying the financial statements and other publicly available information of beverage industry companies can help external information users understand the specific situation and support investors, the market, and other investors in making investment and decision-making decisions. The overall strategy and economic situation of these companies gradually become a concern. As a major player in the market, PepsiCo is well-represented, and its analysis may provide valuable insights into the current situation of the industry. Based on these insights, one can draw conclusions about the existing and potential future conditions of other businesses. The overall financial situation and corporate strategy of PepsiCo's financial statements and public disclosures from 2020 to 2022 are further examined and analyzed in this paper. Additionally, the real present status of the company's revenue shifts and overall strategy is forecasted and analyzed.

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Abstract. Understanding the extreme greenhouse of the Eocene (56–34 Ma) is key to anticipating potential future conditions. While providing an end member towards a distant high-emission scenario, the Eocene climate also challenges the different tools at hand to reconstruct such conditions. Besides remaining uncertainty regarding the conditions under which the large-scale glaciation of Antarctica took place, there is poor understanding of how most of the continent remained ice free throughout the Eocene across a wide range of global temperatures. Seemingly contradictory indications of ice and thriving vegetation complicate efforts to explain the Antarctic Eocene climate. We use global climate model simulations to show that extreme seasonality mostly limited ice growth, mainly through high summer temperatures. Without ice sheets, much of the Antarctic continent had monsoonal conditions. Perennially mild and wet conditions along Antarctic coastlines are consistent with vegetation reconstructions, while extreme seasonality over the continental interior promoted intense weathering shown in proxy records. The results can thus explain the coexistence of warm and wet conditions in some regions, with small ice caps forming near the coast. The resilience of the climate regimes seen in these simulations agrees with the longevity of warm Antarctic conditions during the Eocene but also challenges our view of glacial inception.

Context matters when using climate model projections for aquaculture

At present, specific guidance on how to choose, assess and interpret climate model projections for the aquaculture sector is scarce. Since many aspects of aquaculture production are influenced by the local farm-level environment, there is a need to consider how climate model projections can be used to predict potential future farming conditions locally. This study comparedin-situmeasurements of temperature and salinity from Norwegian salmon farms and fixed monitoring stations to simulations from a regional ocean climate model for multiple locations and depths in southern Norway. For locations considered in this study, a similar seasonal cycle in terms of phasing was visible for modelled and measured temperatures. For some depths and times of the year the modelled and measured temperatures were similar, but for others there were differences. The model tended to underestimate temperature. On occasion there were differences between average modelled and measured temperatures of several degrees and aquaculture users would need to consider the implications of using the modelled temperatures. As for salinity, the model does not include localized freshwater inputs, so the model overestimated salinity for locations close to shore and was not able to represent more brackish water conditions in shallower depths. It was not possible to draw a general conclusion as to whether the model was suitable for aquaculture purposes, as the similarities and differences between the modelled and measured values varied by variable, area, depth, and time. These findings made it clear that aquaculture users would have to implement a process to determine whether they could use climate model outputs for their specific purpose. A model vetting framework is presented that can be used to support decisions on the use of climate model projections for aquaculture purposes. The vetting framework describes four stages that can be used to establish the necessary context regarding the aquaculture requirements and model capabilities, and then check how the model is simulating the conditions of interest at farm sites. Although the focus was aquaculture, the findings are relevant for other sectors and the framework can guide use of climate models for more local-scale assessment and management in coastal locations.

Global enhanced vegetation photosynthesis in urban environment and its drivers revealed by satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data

Investigation on the future impacts of climatic and environmental change on vegetation photosynthesis has been largely restricted to controlled field experiments, which can hardly be extended to global scale due to limited spatial, species and ecosystem coverages. However, in urban areas plants experience altered environments that mimic potential future conditions, with higher air temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and pollution levels. Cities can therefore be used as global, unplanned experiments for assessing the photosynthetic response to multiple climatic and environmental drivers. Following this logic, here we investigate the urbanization impact on vegetation primary productivity and its drivers at global 160 mega-cities, using high-spatial resolution satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data as the proxy of photosynthesis. SIF enhancements were observed across most of the urban-rural gradients, accounting for more than 85% of the investigated land pixels. More importantly, SIF enhancements due to indirect urbanization impact (i.e., the impacts of climatic and environmental factors on vegetation growth) offset approximately 47% of the SIF reductions due to land cover change, a value significantly higher than that observed for a greenness spectral index (Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) (30%). Atmospheric CO2, air temperature, radiation and atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were found to be the main drivers accounting for the enhanced SIF in urban areas. These results prove a dominant and global enhancement of vegetation photosynthesis in urban conditions, and reveal the specific contribution of climatic and environmental factors. Our findings can help to forecast the impacts of future environmental conditions on vegetation photosynthesis, and enhance our knowledge on the overall response of terrestrial biomes to climate change.

Regional wave climate projections forced by EURO‐CORDEX winds for the Black Sea and Sea of Azov towards the end of the 21st century

AbstractWave phenomena impact high commercial value coastal and offshore activities, infrastructures and transportation. The knowledge of future wave conditions allows for consistent long‐term planning and decision‐making. The present study aims to provide robust, reliable projections of the potential future wave conditions of the Black Sea under the influence of climate change. For this purpose, an eight‐member dynamic wave climate ensemble that accurately represents the Black Sea's present wave climate has been produced, and future projections are assessed and analysed here. The wave climate ensemble was obtained by forcing the Simulating Waves Nearshore spectral wave model with eight regional wind fields from the EURO‐CORDEX. The future simulations of the regional wind fields are based on the RCP8.5 high‐emission scenario. The historical wave climate of the ensemble was evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis data. Projected changes in the mean wind and wave characteristics are examined by comparing historical and future simulations. In addition, the projected trends in the annual means during the future period of the wave simulations for significant wave height (Hs) and wave energy flux are also analysed. The projections for Hs and wind speeds are pronounced with significant decreases down to −10% across the basin, especially in the eastern region of the Black Sea. Changes in the Hs 99% percentiles of up to 16% are projected to occur. The projected changes in the annual mean of the wave energy flux are close to the projected changes in Hs means, while the seasonal changes (between −15% and 12%) are expected to be higher.

Modeling of Gully Erosion in Ethiopia as Influenced by Changes in Rainfall and Land Use Management Practices

Gully erosion is one of the most extreme land degradation processes that exhibit spatial and temporal variation depending on topography, soil, climate, and land use and management characteristics. This study investigated the impact of changes in rainfall, land use/land cover (LULC), and land use management (LUM) practices on gully erosion in two midland watersheds (treated Kecha and untreated Laguna) in the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia by using the LANDPLANER model in combination with intensive field measurements and remote sensing products. We simulated gully erosion under past (in 2005), present (in 2021), and three potential future curve number conditions, each time under four rainfall scenarios (10, 30, 60, and 100 mm) using the dynamic erosion index (e), static topographic (esp), and erosion channel (esp_channel) thresholds. Density plot analyses showed that gullies frequently occur in low-lying gentle slope areas with relatively higher curve number values. The best predictions of gullies identified through true positive rates (TPR) and true negative rates (TNR) were achieved considering the static esp_channel > 1 for Kecha (TPR = 0.667 and TNR = 0.544) and the dynamic e > 0.1 for 60 mm of rainfall in Laguna (TPR = 0.769 and TNR = 0.516). Despite the 10 mm rainfall having negligible erosion-triggering potential in both watersheds, the 60 and 100 mm rainfall scenarios were 4–5 and 10–17 times, respectively, higher than the 30 mm rainfall scenario. While the LULC change in the untreated Laguna watershed increased the impact of rainfall on gully initiation by only 0–2% between 2005 and 2021, the combination of LULC and LUM significantly reduced the impact of rainfall in the treated Kecha watershed by 64–79%. Similarly, the gully initiation area in Kecha was reduced by 28% (from 33% in 2005 to 5% in 2021) due to changes in LULC and LUM practices, whereas Laguna showed little increment by only 1% (from 42% in 2005 to 43% in 2021) due to LULC change. In addition, the future predicted alternative land use planning options showed that gully initiation areas in Laguna could be reduced by 1% with only LULC conversion; 39% when only LUM practices were implemented; and 37% when both were combined. These results indicate that LUM practices outweigh the impact of LULC on gully erosion in the studied paired watersheds. Overall, LANDPLANER successfully simulated the spatio-temporal variation of gully erosion with scenario-based analyses and hence can be used to predict gullies in the study area and other data-scarce regions with similar agro-ecological settings.

Atypical weather patterns cause coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia during the 2021–2022 La Niña

Widespread coral bleaching was observed over the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, the world’s largest coral reef during the 2021–2022 La Niña. This raised concerns that background global warming may have crossed a critical threshold causing thermal stress to corals during a climate state historically associated with increased cloud cover, rainfall and cooler summer water temperatures. Here we present an analysis of recent summer La Niña events focused on their synoptic meteorology and corresponding water temperatures over the Great Barrier Reef. Results show that the 2021–2022 summer La Niña caused accumulated coral heat stress to exceed previous La Niña conditions by 2.5 times. We find that weather patterns that favoured the build-up of heat in water overlying the Great Barrier Reef during the 2021–2022 summer were likely the result of repositioning of planetary scale atmospheric longwaves. This insight provides an additional means to predict potential future atmospheric conditions that increase the risk of extremely high water temperatures and coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef.

Abstract P193: Sexual Minority Men of Color With HIV Suggest a Virtual Environment May Be Promising to Support Cardiovascular Health: Findings From an Intervention Mapping Study

Introduction: Black and Latinx sexual minority men are disproportionately impacted by chronic conditions, such as HIV. Persons with HIV have a 1.5 to 2 times risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) when compared to White, HIV-negative persons. By the year 2030, it is estimated that 78% of persons with HIV will have CVD. Patient teaching in the clinical setting has been the traditional modality for prevention education. However, persons at the highest risk, and who are based in the community, may not have access to clinic-based prevention education. Objective: To use mixed methods to assess HIV illness perceptions, HIV-related comorbid conditions of concern, and understand perspectives on the use of an online virtual environment (VE) for CVD prevention education. Methods: The Gaming Protocol Study is a mixed methods study that used Life’s Simple 7 as a framework to map an intervention to support cardiovascular health in sexual minority men of color with HIV, ages 30-65. Data were collected in English, Spanish, and Creole. Using validated measures, HIV illness perceptions, nicotine exposure, and physical activity were assessed. Qualitative interviews explored chronic illnesses of concern outside of HIV and also perceptions about the use of an online VE for CVD prevention education. Results: Thirty participants completed the validated measures and interviews. Quantitative findings suggested that greater than 90% of participants had a strong understanding of their HIV status. More than 50% of participants reported they experienced feelings of anxiety or fear by having HIV. Close to 30% reported having used nicotine and/or e-cigarettes. Less than half of participants met the criteria for engaging in vigorous or moderate physical activity. Qualitative findings suggested concerns about existing and potential future conditions, such as hypertension, diabetes, asthma, obesity, and mental health. Additionally, COVID-19 and Monkeypox were highlighted as important considerations because they pose high risk in the community. Perceptions about using a VE were mostly positive. Concerns were focused on online engagement and digital privacy. Conclusions: Sexual minority men of color are concerned about health conditions beyond HIV. They desire accessible, culturally relevant information to manage their health. Findings provide early evidence about health communication and education preferences for technology tools so they are meaningful and actionable as CVD prevention education.

Suitability of Natura 2000 sites for threatened freshwater species under projected climate change

Abstract As part of the world's largest coordinated network of protected areas, Natura 2000, European Union member states designate special areas of conservation (SACs) to maintain or achieve favourable conservation status for imperilled aquatic species listed under Annex II of the Habitats Directive. Long‐term suitability of SAC habitats is potentially challenged by continuing climate change. To examine this emerging threat to aquatic species conservation, the habitat suitability of designated SACs (n = 8,221) for 24 Central European freshwater species (18 teleosts, two lampreys, two crayfish and two bivalves) was assessed under current and projected end‐of‐century climate using environmental niche models calibrated on species occurrences reported under the Habitats Directive (n = 33,995). Potential future conditions included three climate‐change scenarios representing a gradient from effective climate protection measures to a worst‐case warming scenario. Habitat suitability of SACs was consistently calculated as high under present climate but projected to decline severely for two‐thirds of the species under future climate conditions, with the magnitude of decline generally paralleling that of projected climate change. Under high emission scenarios, one third to more than half of the species were predicted to face unsuitable conditions in ≥75% of SACs. Predicted change in habitat suitability varied across biogeographical regions, with Alpine SACs often undergoing lower or no decline in predicted suitability. Given the discrepancy between the location of currently designated SACs and predicted areas of suitable habitat under projected end‐of‐century climate, climate change can be expected to undermine the long‐term effectiveness of currently protected areas. Fostering climate resilience of freshwater habitats within SACs, restoring stream connectivity among SACs, assisted migration to newly suitable SACs where natural dispersal is not possible, as well as designation of new protected areas within climate refugia represent key actions to overcome this potential future conservation gap.

Modeled Vegetation Community Trajectories: Effects from Climate Change, Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition, and Soil Acidification Recovery.

Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model - based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered "unattainable" in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed.

Climate Impact Assessment for Sustainable Structural Change in the Rhenish Lignite Mining Region

The Rhenish lignite mining region is facing enormous structural changes due to the withdrawal from opencast mining. The current planning of the regional transformation process, however, has so far only insufficiently considered the local impacts of climate change and thus also existing needs for action as well as opportunities in the context of sustainable regional development. However, the integrated consideration of these challenges is probably one of the biggest strategic challenges for this region. The aim of our study was therefore to apply a method for the integrated analysis of structural and climatic changes in the context of a climate impact assessment. We follow a parallel spatial modelling approach and use scenario corridors to describe the bandwidth of potential future conditions. The results clearly show the influence of other drivers such as changes in population and land use, and thus the adaptation options within the context of a sustainable transformation process. Structural changes should be considered in the context of climate impact analyses, as well as climate changes in the management of structural change.

Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Climatic Droughts, Snow Dynamics, and the Correlation between Them

Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of droughts, with the hydrology in alpine systems being largely determined by snow dynamics. In this paper, we propose a methodology to assess the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts, taking into account the dynamics of the snow cover area (SCA). We also analyze the correlation between these types of droughts. We generated ensembles of local climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCMs) representative of potential future conditions. We considered several sources of uncertainty: different historical climate databases, simulations obtained with several RCMs, and some statistical downscaling techniques. We then used a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to generate multiple climatic series preserving the characteristics of the ensemble scenario. These were simulated within a cellular automata (CA) model to generate multiple SCA future series. They were used to calculate multiple series of meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and a novel hydrological drought index (Standardized Snow Cover Index (SSCI)). Linear correlation analysis was applied to both types of drought to analyze how they propagate and the time delay between them. We applied the proposed methodology to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain), where we estimated a general increase in meteorological and hydrological drought magnitude and duration for the horizon 2071–2100 under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The SCA droughts also revealed a significant increase in drought intensity. The meteorological drought propagation to SCA droughts was reflected in an immediate or short time (1 month), obtaining significant correlations in lower accumulation periods of drought indices (3 and 6 months). This allowed us to obtain information about meteorological drought from SCA deficits and vice versa.

Diverging conditions of current and potential future urban forest patches

AbstractForested natural areas in cities provide a range of social, ecological, economic, and health benefits. Ensuring the delivery of these benefits requires an understanding of current and potential future forest conditions, yet urban forest dynamics are not well‐understood. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining forest structure and composition in 126 plots distributed across three forest patch sizes (large [95–126 ha], medium [1–19 ha], and small [0.05–0.65 ha] patches) in the city of New Haven, CT. We detected significant shifts in forest structure and composition suggesting a suite of distinct successional trajectories within each patch size. Large patches comprised 95% native tree species in the canopy (&gt;5 cm dbh), sapling (1–5 cm dbh), and seedling (&lt;1 cm dbh) layers, suggesting that these large patches will continue to be native‐dominated in the future—a primary objective for urban forest management. Moreover, in these large patches, shifts in the dominant species in each stratum suggest that as large patches move through succession they will transition from moderately shade‐tolerant forest types (i.e., oaks) to shade‐tolerant types (i.e., American beech)—a similar successional trajectory to surrounding second‐growth forests in the region. Medium patches were the most heterogeneous patch size sampled. Despite this heterogeneity, they generally resembled large patches in the canopy and sapling layers but diverged in the seedling layer. In medium patches, the invasive Norway maple replaced American beech as primary seedling species suggesting a future shift toward non‐native‐dominated forest in the future. Small patches were the most compositionally and structurally distinct patch size sampled. Only 36% of the canopy trees and saplings in small patches were native species; however, this increased to 71% native in the seedling layer. Additionally, the most important seedling species included those that are bird‐dispersed highlighting the potentially valuable role that these small, non‐native, forest fragments play as wildlife corridors. Collectively, our study demonstrates that multiple forest types, dynamics, and conditions can be found within a single city and that forest patch size offers a helpful framework to begin to parse out these differences.

Conservation under uncertainty: Innovations in participatory climate change scenario planning from U.S. national parks

AbstractThe impacts of climate change (CC) on natural and cultural resources are far‐reaching and complex. A major challenge facing resource managers is not knowing the exact timing and nature of those impacts. To confront this problem, scientists, adaptation specialists, and resource managers have begun to use scenario planning (SP). This structured process identifies a small set of scenarios—descriptions of potential future conditions that encompass the range of critical uncertainties—and uses them to inform planning. We reflect on a series of five recent participatory CC SP projects at four US National Park Service units and derive guidelines for using CC SP to support natural and cultural resource conservation. Specifically, we describe how these engagements affected management, present a generalized CC SP approach grounded in management priorities, and share key insights and innovations that (1) fostered participant confidence and deep engagement in the participatory CC SP process, (2) shared technical information in a way that encouraged informed, effective participation, (3) contextualized CC SP in the broader picture of relevant longstanding or emerging nonclimate stressors, (4) incorporated quantitative approaches to expand analytical capacity and assess qualitative findings, and (5) translated scenarios and all their complexity into strategic action.

Potentials and perspectives of food self-sufficiency in urban areas—a case study from Leipzig

AbstractRegionalization of food systems is a potential strategy to support environmental, economic and social sustainability. However, local preconditions need to be considered to assess the feasibility of such a transformation process. To better understand the potentials and perspectives of food self-sufficiency in urban and peri-urban areas, we determined the food self-sufficiency level (SSL) of a German metropolitan region, i.e., the percentage of the food demand that could be potentially provided on existing agricultural land. Main input parameters were actual food demand, agricultural productivity and its temporal variability and land availability. Furthermore, we considered changes in diet, food losses and land management. Based on current diets and agricultural productivity, the administrative region of Leipzig achieved a mean SSL of 94%, ranging from 77 to 116%. Additionally, an area of 26,932 ha, representing 12% of the regionally available agricultural land, was needed for commodities that are not cultivated regionally. Changes in food demand due to a diet shift to a more plant-based diet and reduced food losses would increase the SSL by 29 and 17%, respectively. A shift to organic agriculture would decrease the SSL by 34% due to lower crop yields compared with conventional production. However, a combination of organic agriculture with less food loss and a more plant-based diet would lead to a mean SSL of 95% (75–115%). Our results indicate the feasibility of food system regionalization in the study area under current and potential near future conditions. Addressing a combination of multiple dimensions, for example plant-based and healthier diets combined with reduced food loss and organic farming, is the most favorable approach to increase food self-sufficiency in urban and peri-urban areas and simultaneously provide synergies with social and environmental objectives.

Quantifying the Impacts of Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise, and Potential Reduction and Changes in Wetlands in Coastal Areas of the Chesapeake Bay Region

Along the North Atlantic coasts of the United States, sea levels are rising at higher rates than the global average. Additionally, sea level rise (SLR) can cause reduction and redistribution of wetlands across the low-lying coastal landscape. This study applied a coupled storm surge and waves model to the Chesapeake Bay regions that are prone to SLR. Two historical storms of low and high wind intensity were simulated for current and potential future sea-level and land cover conditions. The future scenarios incorporated projections of local SLR and land use due to potential reduction and changes in coastal wetlands. Simulated flood depths were used in depth–damage functions to estimate prospective property damages, and were combined with population density information to estimate potential number of people at risk. The results showed that, depending on storm intensity, the total flooded area can increase from the baseline by 1.3–2.3 times in the minimum SLR scenario, and by 2.1–4.7 times in the maximum SLR scenario. The maximum SLR was estimated to cause approximately $5.8 billion to $8.6 billion in additional damages and potentially to affect 1–1.2 million people more than the number affected in current conditions. Results also suggest that the low-intensity storm was projected to have greater impacts in the future than the high-intensity storm today, indicating that even relatively weak storms may cause considerable damage to coastal communities in a future with SLR. Finally, flooding, property damage, and the number of people affected in the future scenarios were exacerbated by wetlands reduction and change—in other words, the protective services currently provided by natural lands in coastal areas can be diminished in the future with SLR.