Potential Future Climate Research Articles

Proper orthogonal decomposition reduced-order model of the global oceans

AbstractA reduced-order model (ROM) of the global oceans is developed by projecting the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations of motion onto a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) basis. Three-dimensional POD modes are calculated from the ocean fields of an ensemble climate reanalysis dataset. The coefficients in the POD ROM are calculated using a regression approach. The performance of various POD ROM configurations are assessed. Each configuration is derived from an alternate sea-water equation of state, linking the density and temperature fields. POD ROM variants incorporating an equation of state in which density is a quadratic function of temperature, are able to reproduce the statistics of the large-scale structures at a fraction of the computational cost required to numerically simulate this flow. Due to the speed and efficiency of calculation, such reduced-order models of the global geophysical system will enable researchers and policy makers to assess the physical risk for a broader range of potential future climate scenarios.

Investigating the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina

Evaluating the forthcoming impacts of climate change is important for formulating efficient and flexible approaches to water resource management. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are primary tools that enable scientists to study both past and potential future climate changes, as well as their impacts on policies and actions. In this work, we quantify the future projected impacts of hydroclimatic extremes on the coastal, risk-prone Tar-Pamlico River basin in North Carolina using GCMs from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These models incorporate projected future societal development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) as defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Specifically, we have utilized historical residential expansion data, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Interquartile Range (IQR) method for analyzing extremes from 2024 to 2100. Our findings include: (1) a trend toward wetter conditions is identified with an increase in flood events toward 2100; (2) projected increases in the severity of flood peaks are found, quantified by a rise of 21% compared to the 2000–2020 period; (3) downstream regions are forecast to experience severe droughts up to 2044; and (4) low-lying and coastal regions are found as particularly susceptible to higher flood peaks and more frequent drought events between 2045 and 2100. This work provides valuable insights into the anticipated shifts in natural disaster patterns and supports decision-makers and authorities in promoting adaptive strategies and sustainable policies to address challenges posed by future climate changes in the Tar-Pamlico region and throughout the state of North Carolina, United States.

Longitudinal assessment of extreme climate events in Kinnaur district, Himachal Pradesh, north-western Himalaya, India.

It is vital to keep an eye on changes in climatic extremes because they set the stage for current and potential future climate, which usually have a reasonable adverse impact on ecosystems and society. The present study examines the variability and trends in precipitation and temperature across seasons in the Kinnaur district, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics ofthe Himalayan climate. Using Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS) datasets from 1951 to 2021, the study analyzes the data to produce 28 climate indices based on India Meteorological Department (IMD) convention indices and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although there may be considerable variation in climate indices in terms of absolute values within different products, there is consensus in both long-term trends and inter-annual variability. Analysis shows that even within a small area, there is variability in the magnitude and direction of historic temperature trends. Initially, the datawere subjected to rigorous quality control procedures, which involved identifying anomalies. Statistical analysis like trend analysis, employing Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, reveal significant (p < 0.05) increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) at 0.03days/year and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) at 0.02days/year. Notably, the frequency of heavy precipitation occurrences showed an increasing trend. Changes in precipitation in the Western Himalaya are driven by a complex interplay of orographic effects, monsoonal dynamics, atmospheric circulation patterns, climate change, and localized factors such as topography, atmospheric circulation patterns, moisture sources, land-sea temperature contrasts, and anthropogenic influences. Moreover, in case of temperature indices, there is significant increasing trend observed. Temperature indices indicate a significant annual increase in warm nights (TN90p) at 0.06%/year and warm days (TX90p) at 0.11%/year. Extreme temperature events have been trending upward, with monthly daily maximum temperature (TXx) increasing by 1.5°C yearly. This study enhances our comprehension of the global warming phenomenon and underscores the importance of acknowledging alterations in the water cycle and their repercussions on hydrologic resources, agriculture, and livelihoods in the cold desert of the northwestern Indian Himalaya.

Broadleaf afforestation impacts on terrestrial hydrology insignificant compared to climate change in Great Britain

Abstract. Widespread afforestation has been proposed internationally to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, the specific hydrological consequences and benefits of such large-scale afforestation (e.g. natural flood management) are poorly understood. We use a high-resolution land surface model, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), with realistic potential afforestation scenarios to quantify possible hydrological change across Great Britain in both present and projected climate. We assess whether proposed afforestation produces significantly different regional responses across regions; whether hydrological fluxes, stores and events are significantly altered by afforestation relative to climate; and how future hydrological processes may be altered up to 2050. Additionally, this enables determination of the relative sensitivity of land surface process representation in JULES compared to climate changes. For these three aims we run simulations using (i) past climate with proposed land cover changes and known floods and drought events; (ii) past climate with independent changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2; and (iii) a potential future climate (2020–2050). We find the proposed scale of afforestation is unlikely to significantly alter regional hydrology; however, it can noticeably decrease low flows whilst not reducing high flows. The afforestation levels minimally impact hydrological processes compared to changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2. Warming average temperatures (+3 °C) decreases streamflow, while rising precipitation (130 %) and CO2 (600 ppm) increase streamflow. Changes in high flow are generated because of evaporative parameterizations, whereas low flows are controlled by runoff model parameterizations. In this study, land surface parameters within a land surface model do not substantially alter hydrological processes when compared to climate.

Exploring Ecological, Morphological, and Environmental Controls on Coastal Foredune Evolution at Annual Scales Using a Process-Based Model

Coastal communities commonly rely upon foredunes as the first line of defense against sea-level rise and storms, thus requiring management guidance to optimize their protective services. Here, we use the AeoLiS model to simulate wind-driven accretion and wave-driven erosion patterns on foredunes with different morphologies and ecological properties under modern-day conditions. Additional sets of model runs mimic potential future climate changes to inform how both morphological and ecological properties may have differing contributions to net dune changes under evolving environmental forcing. This exploratory study, applied to represent the morphological, environmental, and ecological conditions of the northern Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA, finds that dunes experiencing minimal wave collision have similar net volumetric growth rates regardless of beach morphology, though the location and density of vegetation influence sediment deposition patterns across the dune profile. The model indicates that high-density, uniform planting strategies trap sediment close to the dune toe, whereas low-density plantings may allow for accretion across a broader extent of the dune face. The initial beach and dune shape generally plays a larger role in annual-scale dune evolution than vegetation cover. For steeper beach slopes and/or low dune toe elevations, the model generally predicts wave-driven dune erosion at the annual scale.

Mid-Holocene hydroclimatic change and hurricane activity in Central America recorded by an Isla de Mona Stalagmite

In recent years, Puerto Rico has been repeatedly hit by drought and hurricane, causing severe damage to the local society and economy. Therefore, understanding the region's climate variability and predicting extreme weather has become an important scientific problem. Cave stalagmites are widely recognized as high-quality terrestrial paleoclimate proxies due to their accurate dating and high resolution. In this study, we present a stalagmite-based multi-proxy reconstruction of hurricane and hydrological changes in Central America from the island of Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico, for the mid-Holocene period (4700–6260 a BP). Our data suggest a significant influence of solar activity on rainfall patterns in Central America via changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Our study further shows that El Niño may have played a role in influencing hurricane development at a decadal scale, and also found that the relationship of hurricane activities and El Niño intensity on the decadal and centennial scale is variable. The implications of our findings are crucial for informing contemporary climate models and enhancing our preparedness for potential future climate scenarios in the region.

Micro and nanoplastics pollution: A review on global concern and its impacts on ecosystems

AbstractIn recent decades, the ubiquity of micro and nanoplastics (MNPs) pollution has emerged as a global concern due to its potential risks to both ecological and human health. The detrimental effects of MNPs have resulted in significant changes in the physicochemical and biological properties of terrestrial soil and benthic sediment. These alterations have led to a disrupted nutrient cycle, potential future climate hazards, and further impacts on ecosystem services. This review aims to discuss the possible origins, composition, abundance, life cycle, and transport processes of MNPs in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. It seeks to understand the potential ecological and human health risks associated with MNPs pollution and explores their implications for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Moreover, this review highlights the advanced analytical techniques used to detect and quantify MNPs. It further suggests policy frameworks to combat this pollution in natural environments. The findings of this review are intended to assist environmentalists, microbiologists, hydrologists, and policymakers in identifying scientific gaps and pragmatic solutions to reduce MNPs pollution. Future research should investigate the intake mechanism and impact of MNPs on plants in different ecosystems, as well as their effects on food chains and human health. This will ensure that the ecological and human health risks associated with MNPs pollution can be timely mitigated.

Future climate projections for Vietnam: temperature and precipitation changes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report in 2023 highlights Vietnam's undeniable vulnerability to climate change, ranking it among the most severely impacted countries. In response, experts developed the CMIP6-VN dataset, offering high-resolution downscaled temperature and precipitation data tailored for Vietnam using the CMIP6 GCMs model. This study aims to analyze climate projections for Vietnam throughout the 21st century, incorporating data from 25 models to provide valuable insights into potential future climate scenarios. The investigation compares projected temperature and precipitation changes for the mid-term (2040÷2059) and long-term (2080÷2099) periods relative to the historical period (1980÷2014) in the six sub-climatic regions of the country. The results show a consistent upward trend in average temperature, projecting an average of 2.30C (SSP2-4.5) and 4.30C (SSP5-8.5) increases by the end of the century. The Northern regions, especially the Northwest, are experiencing the most significant temperature rise, while moving towards lower latitudes, the temperature increase becomes less severe. The Southern regions, on the other hand, are experiencing a relatively lowest temperature increase. Rainfall variability indicates a slight increase across Vietnam by the century’s end, aligned with rising temperatures, though not as pronounced as the temperature changes. This study emphasizes temperature disparities between the Northern and Southern regions, with the Northwest showing the highest increase and the Southern region displaying the least prominent rise. Policymakers and stakeholders can use these research insights to devise effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in addressing climate change challenges in Vietnam. Continued monitoring and further research are essential to enhance the accuracy and reliability of climate projections in the region, enabling Vietnam to better prepare and respond to the inevitable impacts of climate change.

Effects of varied modern pollen-climate calibration-set establishment approaches on quantitative climate reconstructions

A representative modern calibration dataset is an essential prerequisite for a reliable quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate. However, there has been a notable lack of systematic research on the optimal filtering of calibration sets. Four representative high-resolution pollen records were selected to repeatedly reconstruct paleoclimate using multiple approaches such as geographical distance, analogues and climate gradient. Comparisons of pollen-based reconstructions indicate that these varied approaches exhibit significant discrepancy in model performance and reconstruction accuracy under different geographical circumstances and time scales. Generally, in terms of calibration-set selection, the geographical distance method demonstrates greater efficiency for the plain region, but exhibit limitations in areas characterized by significant topographic changes. Analogue-calibration has been found to be more suitable for the edge of the database and also has been proven superior to other two methods for reconstructions exceed Holocene. Selecting calibration sets based only on climate gradients is inappropriate for independent applications, but may act as a limitation for other methods. This preliminary research can contribute to a more precise projection of potential future climate changes by providing essential data input or validating hindcasts for Earth system models.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Number of Days per Generation of the Egg-Parasitoid Telenomus Remus Nixon, 1937 (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) in Egypt

In this research, we forecasted both the degree-day units and annual generations of the egg parasitoid Telenomus remus Nixon, which parasitizes fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda). The aim was to comprehend its potential spread across diverse agro-climatic zones, considering both current conditions and potential future climates. This was achieved by examining the correlation between degree-day units and population fluctuations. Climate change data from the HadCM3 model was utilized, focusing on A1 scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We aimed to evaluate how temperature projections are anticipated to impact the annual generations in three Egyptian governorates. The investigation revealed that T. remus populations in Aswan, an Upper Egyptian governorate, exhibited a higher number of generations compared to other regions, namely El Sharkia and Beni Suef governorates, in the current climate. The completion of generations by T. remus in El Sharkia, Beni Suef, and Aswan took 13.42, 12.6, and 10.08 days, respectively. The results highlighted that the average generation period in 2021 was the longest, reaching 13.42 ± 6.17 days in El Sharkia governorate. Predictions suggest that T. remus is anticipated to undergo 23 generations between 2040 and 2060, indicating a two-generation increase from 2021. Conversely, in the Beni Suef governorate, where T. remus completed generations in 10.86 ± 5.72 days, the generation period was the longest in 2021. Projections indicate that T. remus is expected to have 24 generations in 2040 and 28 generations in 2060, compared to 22 generations in 2021. Additionally, Aswan’s T. remus is forecasted to experience 32 generations in 2040 and 35 generations in 2060, up from 29 generations in the 2021 climate. The duration of the first generation took 13, 11, and 12 days in the years 2021, 2040, and 2060, respectively. A comprehensive understanding of thermal requirements and biological factors is crucial for accurately predicting generation duration, serving as a valuable reference for the mass production and preservation of parasitoids.

Assessing compounding climate-related stresses and development pathways on the power sector in the central U.S.

Future configurations of the power system in the central region of the USA are dependent on relative costs of alternative power generation technologies, energy and environmental policies, and multiple climate-induced stresses. Higher demand in the summer months combined with compounding supply shocks in several power generation technologies can potentially cause a “perfect storm” leading to failure of the power system. Potential future climate stress must be incorporated in investment decisions and energy system planning and operation. We assess how projected future climate impacts on the power system would affect alternative pathways for the electricity sector considering a broad range of generation technologies and changes in demand. We calculate a “potential supply gap” metric for each pathway, system component, and sub-region of the US Heartland due to climate-induced effects on electricity demand and power generation. Potential supply gaps range from 5% in the North Central region under mild changes in climate to 21% in the Lakes-Mid Atlantic region under more severe climate change. We find increases in electricity demand to be more important in determining the size of the potential supply gap than stresses on power generation, while larger shares of renewables in the power system contribute to lower supply gaps. Our results provide a first step toward considering systemic climate impacts that may require changes in managing the grid or on potential additional capacity/reserves that may be needed.

Making climate reanalysis and CMIP6 data processing easy: two “point-and-click” cloud based user interfaces for environmental and ecological studies

Climate reanalysis and climate projection datasets offer the potential for researchers, students and instructors to access physically informed, global scale, temporally and spatially continuous climate data from the latter half of the 20th century to present, and explore different potential future climates. While these data are of significant use to research and teaching within biological, environmental and social sciences, potential users often face barriers to processing and accessing the data that cannot be overcome without specialist knowledge, facilities or assistance. Consequently, climate reanalysis and projection data are currently substantially under-utilised within research and education communities. To address this issue, we present two simple “point-and-click” graphical user interfaces: the Google Earth Engine Climate Tool (GEEClimT), providing access to climate reanalysis data products; and Google Earth Engine CMIP6 Explorer (GEECE), allowing processing and extraction of CMIP6 projection data, including the ability to create custom model ensembles. Together GEEClimT and GEECE provide easy access to over 387 terabytes of data that can be output in commonly used spreadsheet (CSV) or raster (GeoTIFF) formats to aid subsequent offline analysis. Data included in the two tools include: 20 atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic reanalysis data products; a new dataset of annual resolution climate variables (comparable to WorldClim) calculated from ERA5-Land data for 1950-2022; and CMIP6 climate projection output for 34 model simulations for historical, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. New data products can also be easily added to the tools as they become available within the Google Earth Engine Data Catalog. Five case studies that use data from both tools are also provided. These show that GEEClimT and GEECE are easily expandable tools that remove multiple barriers to entry that will open use of climate reanalysis and projection data to a new and wider range of users.

Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change.

Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and three time periods: 1991-2010 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-century) and 2081-2100 (end-century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90-day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop-growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End-century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid-century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions-reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub-Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor-intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.

The Protected Areas network may be insufficient to protect bird diversity in a fragmented tropical hotspot under different climate scenarios

We identified the 30% most-important forest remnants for conservation in the Atlantic Forest domain in South America based on three bird diversity components: (1) overall species potential distribution, (2) potential distribution of threatened species, and (3) diversity of functional traits. We evaluated the extent of overlap among priority areas using the different approaches and analysed the efficiency of the current Protected Areas network at protecting biodiversity in current and potential future (2040 and 2080) climate scenarios. The overlap among the most important areas is low among the different bird diversity components in all climate scenarios, and few changes were found in priority areas between the current and future scenario. The proportion of species that reached the minimum amount of their distribution areas protected varied from zero to 4% depending on the climate scenario and the species conservation status (threatened or not). Priority areas based on the potential distribution of threatened species were less correlated to areas based on the overall species potential distribution than to functional traits in all climate scenarios, suggesting that there might be considerable differences between species composition and their functionalities. Our analyses point out the main regions where resources should be allocated to conservation of birds in a mega-biodiversity region.

Distribution ofDrepanaphis acerifoliae– aphid pest of Acer trees – faced with global climate change

The genusDrepanaphisdel Guercio currently includes 16 species, all of which are found in North America. Representatives of this genus are narrow oligophages associated mainly with plants of the genusAcer.Previous studies have focused only on the morphology of selected species, while not considering their geographical distribution. Among all species, the painted maple aphidDrepanaphis acerifoliaedeserves particular attention, because it represents the broadest range in North America and is the only species of this genus to be found outside of its natural range, i.e. in Europe. Thanks to suitable niche modelling based on a maximum entropy model, we were able to present maps with the potential distribution ofD.acerifoliaein its natural range. In North America, its distribution coincides with the natural range of the host plants (native to the eastern part), as well as the areas where they are planted (the western part). An extrapolation of these results to the area of Europe allowed for the designation of places where the aphids can find suitable climatic conditions for developing and expanding their spatial distribution. The model indicated the Mediterranean basin, almost all of Italy, excluding mountainous areas, Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the western part of Germany, the southeast and central part of Great Britain, Hungary and the Balkan Peninsula. In a more continental view, the model pointed to areas stretching from the middle of eastern Ukraine, including Crimea, through Russia, to northern parts of Kazakhstan along the border with Russia. Additionally, the impact of climate change on the spread of the species within the next 80 years was analysed, both in North America and Europe. Models considering the potential future climate changes indicate thatD.acerifoliaemay find suitable niches further north of its current ranges. In North America, this is mostly areas of eastern Canada, while in Europe it includes the central and eastern part and the Asian part of Russia.

Microbial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of drought events, affecting soil functions including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are driven by growing microorganisms. Yet we know little about microbial responses to drought due to methodological limitations. Here, we estimate microbial growth rates in montane grassland soils exposed to ambient conditions, drought, and potential future climate conditions (i.e., soils exposed to 6 years of elevated temperatures and elevated CO2 levels). For this purpose, we combined 18O-water vapor equilibration with quantitative stable isotope probing (termed ‘vapor-qSIP’) to measure taxon-specific microbial growth in dry soils. In our experiments, drought caused >90% of bacterial and archaeal taxa to stop dividing and reduced the growth rates of persisting ones. Under drought, growing taxa accounted for only 4% of the total community as compared to 35% in the controls. Drought-tolerant communities were dominated by specialized members of the Actinobacteriota, particularly the genus Streptomyces. Six years of pre-exposure to future climate conditions (3 °C warming and + 300 ppm atmospheric CO2) alleviated drought effects on microbial growth, through more drought-tolerant taxa across major phyla, accounting for 9% of the total community. Our results provide insights into the response of active microbes to drought today and in a future climate, and highlight the importance of studying drought in combination with future climate conditions to capture interactive effects and improve predictions of future soil-climate feedbacks.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Al Abila Dam in the Western Desert of Iraq

The potential impacts resulting from climate change will cause significant global problems, particularly in underdeveloped nations where the effects are felt the most. Techniques for harvesting water such as small dams provide an alternative supply of water and are adaptive solutions to deal with water scarcity in the context of future climate change. However, it is difficult to determine how rainwater harvesting (dams) may be impacted by climate change since general circulation models (GCMs), widely utilized for predicting potential future climate change scenarios, work on an extremely large scale. The primary aim of this research was to quantify the effect of climate change on water availability at the catchment scale by statistically downscaling temperature and rainfall from the GCMs. Then, using a water harvesting model, the performance of the Abila Dam in Iraq’s western desert was evaluated in both the current climate (1990–2020) and various future climate change scenarios (2020–2100). Precipitation generally decreases as the annual temperature increases. To simulate future water availability, these changes in meteorological factors were incorporated into the water harvesting model. In total, 15% or less of net storage might fulfil the whole storage capacity during the baseline period, whereas it is 10% in RCP 2.6 in 2011–2040 for future scenarios. In contrast, RCP 8.5 will be able to meet water needs at a pace of 6% in 2011–2040. The findings of this study proved that the Al Abila dam will be unable to supply the necessary water for the area surrounding the Al Abila dam in the future scenarios.

AN ADAPTIVE PATHWAY TO COASTAL RESILIENCE

The sustainability of our coastal communities and economy is depend upon extensive systems of human and natural infrastructure. These systems need to be reliable, resilient to extreme events and adaptive to future changes in economic and environment conditions as well as adaptable to potential future climate change. In making long term decisions, it is important to make and implement choices that are robust and adaptive. This paper considers approaches being adopted to deliver confidence in coastal management decision making, while providing the scope to adjust course as necessary in the face of future climate.

Future Implications of Climate Change on Arum palaestinum Boiss: Drought Tolerance, Growth and Production

The objectives of the work were to understand the potential future climate changes in the Mediterranean region, assess the drought tolerance of the black calla lily (Arum palaestinum Boiss.), and investigate the mechanisms associated with its ability to withstand drought conditions. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to predict future temperature and precipitation changes. Both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios predicted a general increase in minimum and maximum temperatures and a decrease in precipitation. The projected increase in minimum temperature ranged from 2.95 °C under SSP2-4.5 to 5.67 °C under SSP5-8.5. The projected increase in maximum temperature ranged from 0.69 °C under SSP2-4.5 to 3.34 °C under SSP5-8.5. The projected decrease in precipitation ranged from −1.04 mm/day under SSP2-4.5 to −1.11 mm/day under SSP5-8.5. Results indicated that drought significantly impacted the physiological responses of the black calla lily. As drought increased, the black calla lily showed a reduction in leaf characteristics and non-structural carbohydrates, while proline content and reducing sugar content were increased, enhancing drought tolerance through osmoregulation. The black calla lily tolerates drought at a total ET of up to 50%. It has the potential to adapt to expected climate change through osmoregulation or by building a carbon and nitrogen sink for stress recovery.

The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Abstract. Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) UK-SCAPE (UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment) programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data – one observation-based (1980–2011) and one climate-projection-based (1980–2080) – for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km × 1 km grids across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7 d mean flow (m3 s−1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water / m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate-projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12 km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7 d flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested. The datasets are listed in Table 1.