Potential Field Source Surface Model Research Articles

Compositional Metrics of Fast and Slow Alfvénic Solar Wind Emerging from Coronal Holes and Their Boundaries

We seek to understand the composition and variability of fast solar wind (FSW) and slow Alfvénic solar wind emerging from coronal holes (CHs). We leverage an opportune conjunction between Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe (PSP) during PSP Encounter 11 to include compositional diagnostics from the Solar Orbiter Heavy Ion Sensor as these variations provide crucial insights into the origin and nature of the solar wind. We use potential field source surface and magnetohydrodynamic models to connect the observed plasma at PSP and Solar Orbiter to its origin footpoint in the photosphere and compare these results with the in situ measurements. A very clear signature of a heliospheric current sheet crossing as evidenced by enhancements in low first ionization potential (FIP) elements, ion charge state ratios, proton density, low Alfvénicity, and polarity estimates validates the combination of modeling, data, and mapping. We identify two FSW streams emerging from small equatorial CHs with low ion charge state ratios, low FIP bias, high Alfvénicity, and low footpoint brightness, yet anomalously low alpha particle abundance for both streams. We identify high-Alfvénicity slow solar wind emerging from the overexpanded boundary of a CH having intermediate alpha abundance, high Alfvénicity, and dips in ion charge state ratios corresponding to CH boundaries. Through this comprehensive analysis, we highlight the power of multi-instrument conjunction studies in assessing the sources of the solar wind.

Origin and Properties of the Near-subsonic Solar Wind Observed by Parker Solar Probe

We identify and examine the solar wind intervals near the sonic critical point (i.e., M S ∼ 1) observed by the Parker Solar Probe. The near-subsonic wind intervals show similar properties: a low density, an extremely low velocity, a low proton temperature, and essentially no magnetic field deflections compared with the surrounding solar wind. The extremely low velocity is the primary contributor to the near crossing of the sonic critical point rather than the sound speed, which is roughly constant in these intervals. Source tracing with a potential-field source-surface model suggests that the near subsonic intervals all connect to the boundaries inside coronal holes. Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and partial HCS crossings around the near subsonic intervals indicate that the near subsonic wind is a transition layer between the slow and fast winds. The above scenario is consistent with the nature of the near-subsonic wind as a low-Mach-number boundary layer, which facilitates the crossing of the sonic critical point at 15–20 R S . Moreover, we find a dependence of the amplitude of switchbacks on the radial sonic Mach number. Magnetic field deflections essentially disappear near the sonic critical point, which suggests that switchbacks originate from above the sonic critical point.

On the Origin of the Sudden Heliospheric Open Magnetic Flux Enhancement During the 2014 Pole Reversal

Coronal holes are recognized as the primary sources of heliospheric open magnetic flux (OMF). However, a noticeable gap exists between in situ measured OMF and that derived from remote-sensing observations of the Sun. In this study, we investigate the OMF evolution and its connection to solar structures throughout 2014, with special emphasis on the period from September to October, where a sudden and significant OMF increase was reported. By deriving the OMF evolution at 1 au, modeling it at the source surface, and analyzing solar photospheric data, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the observed phenomenon. First, we establish a strong correlation between the OMF increase and the solar magnetic field derived from a potential-field source-surface model (cc Pearson = 0.94). Moreover, we find a good correlation between the OMF and the open flux derived from solar coronal holes (cc Pearson = 0.88), although the coronal holes only contain 14%–32% of the Sun’s total open flux. However, we note that while the OMF evolution correlates with coronal hole open flux, there is no correlation with the coronal hole area evolution (cc Pearson = 0.0). The temporal increase in OMF correlates with the vanishing remnant magnetic field at the southern pole, caused by poleward flux circulations from the decay of numerous active regions months earlier. Additionally, our analysis suggests a potential link between the OMF enhancement and the concurrent emergence of the largest active region in solar cycle 24. In conclusion, our study provides insights into the strong increase in OMF observed during 2014 September–October.

Simulating gamma-ray production from cosmic rays interacting with the solar atmosphere in the presence of coronal magnetic fields* *Supported in China by the NSFC (12261160362, 12022502). KCYN is supported by grants provided by the NSFC (12322517, N_CUHK456/22) and RGC (24302721, 14305822, 14308023)

Cosmic rays can interact with the solar atmosphere and produce a slew of secondary messengers, making the Sun a bright gamma-ray source in the sky. Detailed observations with Fermi-LAT have shown that these interactions must be strongly affected by solar magnetic fields in order to produce a wide range of observational features, such as a high flux and hard spectrum. However, the detailed mechanisms behind these features are still a mystery. In this study, we tackle this problem by performing particle-interaction simulations in the solar atmosphere in the presence of coronal magnetic fields using the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. We find that low-energy (~ GeV) gamma-ray production is significantly enhanced by the coronal magnetic fields, but the enhancement decreases rapidly with energy. The enhancement directly correlates with the production of gamma rays with large deviation angles relative to the input cosmic-ray direction. We conclude that coronal magnetic fields are essential for correctly modeling solar disk gamma rays below 10 GeV, but above that, the effect of coronal magnetic fields diminishes. Other magnetic field structures are needed to explain the high-energy disk emission.

Global solar photospheric and coronal magnetic field over activity cycles 21–25

The evolution of the global solar magnetic field from the beginning of cycle 21 (mid-1970s) until the currently-ascending cycle 25 is described using photospheric full-disk and synoptic magnetograms from NSO Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope (KPVT) 512-channel and Spectromagnetograph (SPMG) and the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigation of the Sun (SOLIS) Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM) and Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG), and Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). The evolving strength and symmetry of the global coronal field are described by potential-field source-surface models decomposed into axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric, and even- and odd-ordered magnetic multipoles. The overall weakness of the global solar magnetic field since cycle 23 splits the 50-year observing window into the stronger, simpler, more hemispherically symmetric cycles 21 and 22 and the weaker, more complex cycles 23 and 24. An anomalously large decrease in the global solar field strength occurred during cycles 23, and an anomalously weak axial/polar field resulted from that cycle, accompanied by an anomalously weak radial interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during cycle 23 activity minimum and a weakened radial IMF overall since cycle 23. The general long-term decline in solar field strength and the development during cycle 24 of strong swings of hemispheric and polar asymmetry are analyzed in detail, including their transfer through global coronal structural changes to dominate mean in situ interplanetary field measurements for several years. Although more symmetric than cycle 24, the rise phase of cycle 25 began with the southern leading the northern hemisphere, but the north has recovered to lead this cycle’s polar field reversal. The mean polar flux (poleward of ±60°) has reversed at each pole, so far more symmetrically than the cycle 23 and 24 polar reversals.

Coronal diagnostics of solar type III radio bursts using LOFAR and PSP observations

Context. Solar type III radio bursts are common phenomena, recognized as the result of accelerated electron beams propagating through the solar corona. These bursts are of particular interest as they provide valuable information about the magnetic field and plasma conditions in the corona, which are difficult to measure directly. Aims. This study aims to investigate the ambiguous source and the underlying physical processes of the type III radio bursts that occurred on April 3, 2019, through the utilization of multi-wavelength observations from the Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) radio telescope and the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) space mission, as well as incorporating results from a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The primary goal is to identify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the radio sources, as well as the plasma conditions along their trajectories. Methods. We applied data preprocessing techniques to combine high- and low-frequency observations from LOFAR and PSP between 2.6 kHz and 80 MHz. We then extracted information on the frequency drift and speed of the accelerated electron beams from the dynamic spectra. Additionally, we used LOFAR interferometric observations to image the sources of the radio emission at multiple frequencies and determine their locations and kinematics in the corona. Lastly, we analyzed the plasma parameters and magnetic field along the trajectories of the radio sources using PFSS and MHD model results. Results. We present several notable findings related to type III radio bursts. Firstly, through our automated implementation, we were able to effectively identify and characterize 9 type III radio bursts in the LOFAR-PSP combined dynamic spectrum and 16 type III bursts in the LOFAR dynamic spectrum. We found that the frequency drift for the detected type III bursts in the combined spectrum ranges between 0.24 and 4 MHz s−1, while the speeds of the electron beams range between 0.013 and 0.12 C. Secondly, our imaging observations show that the electrons responsible for these bursts originate from the same source and within a short time frame of fewer than 30 min. Finally, our analysis provides informative insights into the physical conditions along the path of the electron beams. For instance, we found that the plasma density obtained from the magnetohydrodynamic algorithm outside a sphere (MAS) model is significantly lower than the expected theoretical density.

Data-constrained Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of an Intermediate Solar Filament Eruption

Solar eruptive activities could occur in weak magnetic field environments and over large spatial scales, which are especially relevant to eruptions involving intermediate or quiescent solar filaments. To handle the large scales, we implement and apply a flux rope embedding method using regularized Biot–Savart laws in the spherical coordinate system. Combined with a potential field source surface model and a magneto-frictional method, a nonlinear force-free field comprising a flux rope embedded in a potential field is constructed. Using the combined nonlinear force-free field as the initial condition, we then perform a zero-β data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation for an M8.7 flare at 03:38 UT on 2012 January 23. The MHD model reproduces the eruption process, flare ribbon evolution (represented by the quasi-separatrix layer evolution), and kinematics of the flux rope. This approach could potentially model global-scale eruptions from weak field regions.

Solar flares and active regions in the Hale sector boundary in Solar Cycle 24

ABSTRACT Solar eruptions, such as flares and coronal mass ejections, have serious impacts on the Earth’s environment and human activity. Predicting the eruptions and therefore avoiding their damages is a main goal in the research community. Heliospheric current sheet (HCS), the boundary dividing the positive and negative magnetic fields that open up to the interplanetary space, is believed to be related with solar eruptions. The HCS consists of two types of boundaries: the Hale boundary and the non-Hale boundary, and the former is suggested in previous studies to be the region producing most of the solar flares. In this work, we explore relationships between Hale boundary, flares, and property of active regions (ARs). The HCS is determined from the magnetic field in the heliosphere calculated from the observed photospheric magnetic field using a potential field source surface model. We have analysed 8075 flares of C-class and above and 1652 ARs in the period from May 2010 to May 2019 in Solar Cycle 24. The following results are obtained: (1) 5957 flares ($74\pm 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) and 1212 ARs ($73\pm 2~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) are in the HCS; (2) among them, 70 per cent ($\pm 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) flares and 57 per cent ($\pm 3~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) ARs are in the Hale boundary; and (3) big ARs tend to emerge in the Hale boundary. We conclude that the HCS is related tightly to solar activity, and the Hale boundary is a region favoured to produce flares and to host large ARs.

Near-Sun In Situ and Remote-sensing Observations of a Coronal Mass Ejection and its Effect on the Heliospheric Current Sheet

During the thirteenth encounter of the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission, the spacecraft traveled through a topologically complex interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) beginning on 2022 September 5. PSP traversed through the flank and wake of the ICME while observing the event for nearly two days. The Solar Probe ANalyzer and FIELDS instruments collected in situ measurements of the plasma particles and magnetic field at ∼13.3 R S from the Sun. We observe classical ICME signatures, such as a fast-forward shock, bidirectional electrons, low proton temperatures, low plasma β, and high alpha particle to proton number density ratios. In addition, PSP traveled through two magnetic inversion lines, a magnetic reconnection exhaust, and multiple sub-Alfvénic regions. We compare these in situ measurements to remote-sensing observations from the Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe Plus instrument on board PSP and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation on the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory. Based on white-light coronagraphs, two CMEs are forward modeled to best fit the extent of the event. Furthermore, Air Force Data Assimilative Flux Transport magnetograms modeled from Global Oscillation Network Group magnetograms and Potential Field Source Surface modeling portray a global reconfiguration of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) after the CME event, suggesting that these eruptions play a significant role in the evolution of the HCS.

Examining the Source Regions of Solar Energetic Particles Using an AI-generated Synchronic Potential Field Source Surface Model

We study the source regions of six solar energetic particle (SEP) events accelerated near or behind the limbs of the Sun. We use AI-generated farside magnetograms at a near real-time basis developed by Jeong et al. and AIHMI-PFSS extrapolations up to 2.5R ⊙ computed using the input of the synchronic data combining AI-generated farside and HMI magnetograms. By comparing the AIHMI, HMI, Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) synoptic magnetograms, and Air force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport synchronic magnetograms, as well as the PFSS extrapolations, we find interesting differences between them in view of SEP source regions and magnetic field configurations. First, the structures and sizes of the source active regions (ARs) are changed. The total unsigned magnetic field fluxes of the ARs are mostly stronger in the AIHMI than in the HMI and GONG magnetograms. Second, newly emerging ARs are observed in the SEP source regions in the AIHMI magnetograms for two events. Third, the alterations in the magnetic flux, the emergence, and the dissipation of ARs lead to modifications in the locations of the global polarity inversion lines (PILs). The EUV wave propagation is typically observed to be oriented nearly perpendicular with respect to the local PIL, suggesting that the AIHMI-PFSS extrapolations around the source region are more realistic. This study shows that the continuous farside evolution of AR magnetic fields, which is accomplished by our AI synchronic magnetograms, can lead to an improved understanding of SEP source ARs.

Which Component of Solar Magnetic Field Drives the Evolution of Interplanetary Magnetic Field over the Solar Cycle?

The solar magnetic structure changes over the solar cycle. It has a dipole structure during solar minimum, where the open flux extends mainly from the polar regions into the interplanetary space. During maximum, a complex structure is formed with low-latitude active regions and weakened polar fields, resulting in spread open field regions. However, the components of the solar magnetic field that are responsible for long-term variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are not clear, and the IMF strength estimated based on the solar magnetic field is known to be underestimated by a factor of 3–4 against the actual in situ observations (the open flux problem). To this end, we decomposed the coronal magnetic field into the components of the spherical harmonic function of degree and order (ℓ, m) using the potential field source surface model with synoptic maps from SDO/HMI for 2010–2021. As a result, we found that the IMF rapidly increased in 2014 December (7 months after the solar maximum), which coincided with the increase in the equatorial dipole, (ℓ, m) = (1, ±1), corresponding to the diffusion of active regions toward the poles and in the longitudinal direction. The IMF gradually decreased until 2019 December (solar minimum) and its variation corresponded to that of the nondipole component ℓ ≥ 2. Our results suggest that the understanding of the open flux problem may be improved by focusing on the equatorial dipole and the nondipole component and that the influence of the polar magnetic field is less significant.

Observational Evidence of S-web Source of the Slow Solar Wind

From 2022 March 18 to 21, NOAA Active Region (AR) 12967 was tracked simultaneously by Solar Orbiter at 0.35 au and Hinode/EIS at Earth. During this period, strong blueshifted plasma upflows were observed along a thin, dark corridor of open magnetic field originating at the AR’s leading polarity and continuing toward the southern extension of the northern polar coronal hole. A potential field source surface model shows large lateral expansion of the open magnetic field along the corridor. Squashing factor Q-maps of the large-scale topology further confirm super-radial expansion in support of the S-web theory for the slow wind. The thin corridor of upflows is identified as the source region of a slow solar wind stream characterized by ∼300 km s−1 velocities, low proton temperatures of ∼5 eV, extremely high density >100 cm−3, and a short interval of moderate Alfvénicity accompanied by switchback events. When the connectivity changes from the corridor to the eastern side of the AR, the in situ plasma parameters of the slow solar wind indicate a distinctly different source region. These observations provide strong evidence that the narrow open-field corridors, forming part of the S-web, produce some extreme properties in their associated solar wind streams.

Accounting for differential rotation in calculations of the Sun’s angular momentum-loss rate

Context. Sun-like stars shed angular momentum due to the presence of magnetised stellar winds. Magnetohydrodynamic models have been successful in exploring the dependence of this ‘wind-braking torque’ on various stellar properties; however the influence of surface differential rotation is largely unexplored. As the wind-braking torque depends on the rotation rate of the escaping wind, the inclusion of differential rotation should effectively modulate the angular momentum-loss rate based on the latitudinal variation of wind source regions. Aims. Here we aim to quantify the influence of surface differential rotation on the angular momentum-loss rate of the Sun, in comparison to the typical assumption of solid-body rotation. Methods. To do this, we exploited the dependence of the wind-braking torque on the effective rotation rate of the coronal magnetic field, which is known to be vitally important in magnetohydrodynamic models. This quantity has been evaluated by tracing field lines through a potential field source surface (PFSS) model, driven by ADAPT-GONG magnetograms. The surface rotation rates of the open magnetic field lines were then used to construct an open-flux weighted rotation rate, from which the influence on the wind-braking torque could be estimated. Results. During solar minima, the rotation rate of the corona decreases with respect to the typical solid-body rate (the Carrington rotation period is 25.4 days), as the sources of the solar wind are confined towards the slowly rotating poles. With increasing activity, more solar wind emerges from the Sun’s active latitudes which enforces a Carrington-like rotation. Coronal rotation often displays a north-south asymmetry driven by differences in active region emergence rates (and consequently latitudinal connectivity) in each hemisphere. Conclusions. The effect of differential rotation on the Sun’s current wind-braking torque is limited. The solar wind-braking torque is ∼10 − 15% lower during solar minimum, (compared with the typical solid body rate), and a few percent larger during solar maximum (as some field lines connect to more rapidly rotating equatorial latitudes). For more rapidly rotating Sun-like stars, differential rotation may play a more significant role, depending on the configuration of the large-scale magnetic field.

Modeling CME encounters at Parker Solar Probe with OSPREI: Dependence on photospheric and coronal conditions

Context.Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CMEs’ geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model.Aims.We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions.Methods.We modeled four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We varied the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employed the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model and varied its source-surface height in the range 1.5–3.0R⊙with 0.1R⊙increments.Results.We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun’s corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height.Conclusions.The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use.

Radio Measurements of Coronal Magnetic Fields in Fan-Spine Configurations on the Sun

Abstract Recent interest of solar physicists in the analysis of the coronal mass ejections and circular solar flares in fan-spine magnetic configurations (FSCs) necessitates measurements of the corresponding coronal magnetic fields. A dominant sunspot with the circumjacent magnetic flux of opposite polarity produces a specific coronal region of the quasi-transverse (QT-) propagation of microwaves. We make use of the theory of QT-propagation to evaluate the strengths of coronal magnetic fields in the active regions NOAA 11579, 12242, and 12488 while they are non-flaring. Microwave polarization changes were observed with the RATAN-600 radio telescope, the Siberian Solar Radio Telescope, and the Nobeyama Radioheliograph. Changes in the sign of circular radio polarization provide the strengths of coronal fields in a QT-region if the coronal plasma density N e and the length scale of magnetic field divergence L d are known. We evaluate the length scale by means of the potential-field source-surface (PFSS) model and the coronal density from the Gaussian inversion of the differential emission measure (from the Solar Dynamics Observatory observational data), obtaining N e L d = (0.46–0.64)×1010 m−2. The resulting coronal fields of 1.4×10−3 T and 2.34×10−3 T are attributed to the heights of 100 Mm and 50.2 Mm. We discuss the validity and consistency of the involved values to draw conclusions on the feasibility of coronal radio magnetography of FSCs.

Solar-MACH: An open-source tool to analyze solar magnetic connection configurations

The Solar MAgnetic Connection HAUS1 tool (Solar-MACH) is an open-source tool completely written in Python that derives and visualizes the spatial configuration and solar magnetic connection of different observers (i.e., spacecraft or planets) in the heliosphere at different times. For doing this, the magnetic connection in the interplanetary space is obtained by the classic Parker Heliospheric Magnetic Field (HMF). In close vicinity of the Sun, a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model can be applied to connect the HMF to the solar photosphere. Solar-MACH is especially aimed at providing publication-ready figures for the analyses of Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) or solar transients such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). It is provided as an installable Python package (listed on PyPI and conda-forge), but also as a web tool at solar-mach.github.io that completely runs in any web browser and requires neither Python knowledge nor installation. The development of Solar-MACH is open to everyone and takes place on GitHub, where the source code is publicly available under the BSD 3-Clause License. Established Python libraries like sunpy and pfsspy are utilized to obtain functionalities when possible. In this article, the Python code of Solar-MACH is explained, and its functionality is demonstrated using real science examples. In addition, we introduce the overarching SERPENTINE project, the umbrella under which the recent development took place.

Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations

Context. We apply our recently developed method to reconstruct synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field from observations of chromospheric plages and the magnetic polarity of sunspots. Here, we apply the method to an extended time interval from 1915 to 1985. Aims. Systematic magnetographic observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field were initiated as recently as the 1970s and the lack of earlier observations limits our ability to study and understand the long-term evolution of the Solar global field. This study is aimed at creating synoptic maps of magnetic fields for the pre-magnetograph era and using these maps as input for modern simulation models to investigate the long-term (centennial) evolution of the Sun’s global magnetic fields. Methods. We reconstructed active Solar regions by identifying chromospheric plages from Ca II K line synoptic maps and assigning magnetic polarities based on the observed polarity of sunspots. We used a surface flux transport (SFT) model to simulate the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field from the reconstructed active regions. We used the potential field source surface (PFSS) model to determine the amount of open magnetic flux from the reconstruction and from magnetographic observations. We also reconstructed the coronal field during two eclipses and compared the result with eclipse drawings. Results. We successfully reconstructed the photospheric magnetic field from 1915 to 1985. The number and total magnetic flux of the reconstructed active regions shows a realistic cyclic behavior that mostly follows the evolution of the sunspot number, even on relatively short timescales. The polar field strengths of cycles 19 and 20 do not reflect the evolution of the sunspot number very accurately, which may be related to problems related to the calcium data during cycle 19 and the long data gap during cycle 20. The polarity of polar fields and the amount of open field both at high and low latitudes all demonstrate the expected cyclic behavior. The agreement of the modeled coronal structure with eclipse drawings in 1922 and 1923 is fair.

Solar Cycle Variability in Coronal Holes and Their Effects on Solar Wind Sources

AbstractVarious upstream spacecraft have now observed the solar wind conditions affecting the Earth since the 1970s, covering over four solar activity cycles. These measurements provide a long term picture of the related patterns in large scale incident plasma and magnetic field parameters of interest for both interpreting cycles in geospace effects, and understanding how the Sun controls our space environment. This paper focuses on the latter, in part to provide context at the start of the new solar cycle 25, and toward establishing connections between the 1 AU ecliptic solar wind behavior and the unprecedented near‐Sun measurements of heliospheric features on Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter. Magnetograph data‐based potential field source surface models provide a basic picture of how the solar wind sources, including those that give rise to corotating high speed streams in the ecliptic, have changed since the beginning of the record of regular solar wind measurements. In particular, they suggest the contributions from low to mid latitude coronal holes dominate the observed cycles (21–24), especially the weaker cycles (23 and 24), impacting upstream measurement interpretations, modeling, and forecasting considerations. For example, recurring features are affected by differential rotation of the Sun's surface field, which through its effects on the corona, can produce solar wind streams reappearing at ∼25–30 days intervals instead of at the canonical 27.3 days Carrington rotation rate. In addition, the conditions that lead to the corotating stream structure that can dominate periods of low solar activity are seen to be more complicated than suggested by the simple concepts of early studies. The overall results illustrate where in the cycles well‐defined, long‐lived large scale structures can be expected, and the advantages of synoptic displays of 1 AU solar wind parameters for anticipating timings of recurring features.

Multispacecraft Remote Sensing and In Situ Observations of the 2020 November 29 Coronal Mass Ejection and Associated Shock: From Solar Source to Heliospheric Impacts

We investigate the source eruption, propagation and expansion characteristics, and heliospheric impacts of the 2020 November 29 coronal mass ejection (CME) and associated shock, using remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple spacecraft. A potential-field source-surface model is employed to examine the coronal magnetic fields surrounding the source region. The CME and associated shock are tracked from the early stage to the outer corona using extreme ultraviolet and white light observations. Forward models are applied to determine the structures and kinematics of the CME and the shock near the Sun. The shock shows an ellipsoidal structure, expands in all directions, and encloses the whole Sun as viewed from both SOHO and STEREO A, which results from the large expansion of the CME flux rope and its fast acceleration. The structure and potential impacts of the shock are mainly determined by its radial and lateral expansions. The CME and shock arrive at Parker Solar Probe and STEREO A. Only based on the remote sensing observations, it is difficult to predict whether and when the CME/shock would arrive at the Earth. Combining Wind in situ measurements and Wang–Sheeley–Arge-ENLIL simulation results, we confirm that the far flank of the CME (or the CME leg) arrives at the Earth with no shock signature. These results highlight the importance of multipoint remote sensing and in situ observations for determining the heliospheric impacts of CMEs.

A Parametric Study of Performance of Two Solar Wind Velocity Forecasting Models During 2006–2011

AbstractThere is an increasing need for the development of a robust space weather forecasting framework. State‐of‐the‐art MHD space weather forecasting frameworks are based upon the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) extrapolation models for the magnetic field using synoptic magnetograms. These models create a solar wind (SW) background for the simulations using empirical relations of Wang, Sheeley and Arge (WSA), at the inner boundary of heliosphere and have been used to simulate coronal mass ejections for specific cases in previous studies. Besides these MHD frameworks, the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) technique can extrapolate SW from inner heliospheric boundaries to L1 and can give a reliable estimate of the SW velocity at L1 comparable to MHD models but in a short computational time. We carried out an extensive parametric study of the performance of the Model1 (PFSS+WSA+HUX) and Model2 (PFSS+SCS+WSA+HUX) for SW velocity prediction at L1. We implemented this framework on 60 Carrington Rotations from CR2047 to CR2107 during 2006–2011, covering the descending and deep minimum phase of solar cycle (SC) 23, and the ascending phase of SC 24. Our results show an unexpected decrease in the performance of the framework during the deep minimum phase of cycle 23, which is attributed to the decrease in the observed coronal hole area. As SC 24 began, this decreasing trend vanished due to an increase in the coronal hole (CH) area at the low and mid‐latitudes, suggesting a good correlation between the performance of the framework and the variation in the CH area.