Potential Effects Of Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Understanding the economic impacts of sea-level rise on tourism prosperity: Conceptualization and panel data evidence

Sea-level rise is a long-term, intractable problem during which costly, large-scale inundation could occur in many countries; hence, tourism development should take this matter into account because ecology and biodiversity are the fundamentals underpinning tourism performance. This study conceptualizes an economic mechanism of the potential effects of sea-level rise on tourism development based on projected impacts for the 2001–2100 period. Data for 48 developing countries across Africa, Asia, and South America are analyzed. The theoretical framework proposes two hypotheses to determine the extent of contradiction between awareness and destruction in relation to environmental protection for tourism development. From the panel data regression results, although destructive effects are bound to dominate the entire 21st century, awareness is latent and has the potential to reverse the destructive outcomes. With evidence from essential economic elements, this study gives new insights into how severe the impacts of sea-level rise on tourism could be if shared values and adaptation measures to mitigate rising sea level are not substantively promoted around the globe. The new findings show a 0.95 standard-deviation decrease in tourism performance following a 1 standard-deviation increase in the economic loss related sea-level rise. Hence, in the main conclusions, we highlight that the projected effect of inundation-related deterioration on a country's tourism sector appears to be approximately on par with the costs of inundations to its economic growth.

A systematic review of methods used to study fish in saltmarsh flats

There is a growing body of research highlighting the importance of saltmarshes as habitats for fish for feeding, refuge from predation and reproduction. However, more work is needed on fish on vegetated marsh flats (or surfaces). We reviewed 60 studies that used 21 methods to sample fish assemblages on saltmarsh flats. Drop samplers, fyke nets and pop nets were most frequently employed, with considerably more studies being conducted in graminoid than succulent marsh. Reporting of sampling temporal and tidal details, environmental variables and fish attributes was inconsistent. Most of the papers focussed on one or more of conservation management, comparisons among habitat types, and the use of saltmarsh (including fish activity type or residency status). Important potential areas of research include the relationships between the fish assemblages of saltmarsh flats and coastal fisheries, the effects of invasive plant species and marsh restoration efforts in areas outside the United States, and the potential effects of sea-level rise on vegetated flats as fish habitat. Sampling methods that provide density measures are likely to be most useful for most of this research. Thus, drop samplers and pop nets are an appropriate choice, the former in graminoid saltmarshes and the latter in succulent saltmarshes.

Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Salt Marsh Elevation Dynamics in a New Hampshire Estuary

Salt marsh survival in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) depends largely on a marsh’s ability to compensate for increased flooding by building in elevation, but the rate of elevation gain depends on processes that are not well-understood (i.e., belowground productivity, sediment accretion, and subsidence). An array of planted and unplanted pots was installed in the field to examine the effects of tidal flooding on productivity and elevation change. We found that belowground plant volume increased linearly as elevation increased for both Spartina patens and Spartina alterniflora. Even though the volume of roots increased by 400% with elevation for S. alterniflora and > 200% for S. patens, there was no relationship between belowground volume and elevation change of the original soil surface, perhaps due to the infilling of porosity by roots. However, the soil in planted treatments subsided significantly less than in unplanted controls. Measurements from Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) indicated that local high marshes have been losing elevation relative to sea level at an average rate of 2.1 mm/year. The rate of vertical gain decreased at SET locations of greater marsh elevation, and high marshes did not keep pace with SLR even when sediment supply appeared to be high (TSS = 57 ± 7 mg/L). The high marsh accretion deficit, combined with a continuing trend of reduced belowground growth with increased flooding due to SLR, suggests that S. alterniflora will replace less flood-tolerant species over time, potentially causing loss of high marsh habitat.

Aquatic environmental changes and ecological implications from the combined effects of sea-level rise and land reclamation in Deep Bay, Pearl River Estuary, China

Rising sea levels due to climate change are altering the hydrodynamic and solute transport conditions in estuarine regions worldwide. At the same time, anthropogenic projects such as land reclamation could change the potential effects of sea-level rise (SLR). In this study, Deep Bay in the Pearl River Estuary of China was used as a case study to investigate the combined effects of SLR and reclamation. A numerical model was applied to simulate the changes of hydrodynamic and solute transport with 0.0, 0.3, and 0.5m of SLR in two groups of scenarios (i.e., before and after land reclamation). SLR alone substantially affected the hydrodynamics and strengthened the tidal influence. SLR resulted in a loss of intertidal regions and an increased tidal prism in the bay. Reclamation further magnified SLR’s effects on both the hydrodynamics and solute transport. The tidal energy entering the bay during each tidal phase increased by 39.2% and 66.4% with 0.3 and 0.5m of SLR (respectively) before reclamation, versus 40.7% and 68.9% (respectively) after reclamation. The reclamation projects in the bay helped the saline sea water to intrude further upstream, and magnified the effects of SLR on variations in seasonal salinity. SLR also decreased the bay’s ability to exchange water. However, the reclamation accelerated the solute circulation inside the bay, considerably reduced the water age, and offset the SLR’s effects on the bay’s ability to exchange water with the adjacent sea. The increase in salinity variation due to the combined effects of SLR and reclamation might exert stress on the ecological system of the inner bay, which contains a Ramsar wetland.

Modeling the potential effects of sea-level rise on the coast of New York: Integrating mechanistic accretion and stochastic uncertainty

The Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model was applied to coastal New York State at a 5 m horizontal resolution to investigate marsh conservation and potential migration under multiple sea-level rise scenarios. Feedbacks between sea-level rise and marsh accretion rates based on mechanistic modeling were included. Simulation results predict extensive marsh losses in microtidal regimes behind the barrier islands of Long Island, vulnerable dry lands on barrier islands, and opportunities for upland migration of coastal marshes. Results also indicate changes in the composition of marsh types. Confidence of predictions due to model parameter variabilities and spatial data error were estimated with the uncertainty estimation module. Likelihood maps of land cover changes were produced. Uncertainty results suggest that variability in land cover projections is mostly due to the wide range in potential sea-level rise signals by 2100 while impact from uncertainties in model parameters, spatial data errors and linked models is less significant.

Potential effects of sea-level rise on plant productivity: species-specific responses in northeast Pacific tidal marshes

Coastal wetland plants are adapted to varying degrees of inundation. However, functional relationships between inundation and productivity are poorly characterized for most species. Determining species-specific tolerances to inundation is necessary to evaluate sea-level rise (SLR) effects on future marsh plant community composition, quantify organic matter inputs to marsh accretion, and inform predictive modeling of tidal wetland persistence. In 2 macrotidal estuaries in the northeast Pacific we grew 5 common species in experimental mesocosms across a gradient of tidal elevations to assess effects on growth. We also tested whether species abundance distributions along elevation gradients in adjacent marshes matched productivity profiles in the mesocosms. We found parabolic relationships between inundation and total plant biomass and shoot counts in Spartina foliosa and Bolboschoenus maritimus in California, USA, and in Carex lyngbyei in Oregon, USA, with maximum total plant biomass occurring at 38, 28, and 15% time submerged, respectively. However, biomass of Salicornia pacifica and Juncus balticus declined monotonically with increasing inundation. Inundation effects on the ratio of belowground to aboveground biomass varied inconsistently among species. In comparisons of field distributions with mesocosm results, B. maritimus, C. lyngbyei and J. balticus were abundant in marshes at or above elevations corresponding with their maximum productivity; however, S. foliosa and S. pacifica were frequently abundant at lower elevations corresponding with sub-optimal productivity. Our findings show species-level differences in how marsh plant growth may respond to future SLR and highlight the sensitivity of high marsh species such as S. pacifica and J. balticus to increases in flooding.

Coastal Vertebrate Exposure to Predicted Habitat Changes Due to Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise (SLR) may degrade habitat for coastal vertebrates in the Southeastern United States, but it is unclear which groups or species will be most exposed to habitat changes. We assessed 28 coastal Georgia vertebrate species for their exposure to potential habitat changes due to SLR using output from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model and information on the species' fundamental niches. We assessed forecasted habitat change up to the year 2100 using three structural habitat metrics: total area, patch size, and habitat permanence. Almost all of the species (n=24) experienced negative habitat changes due to SLR as measured by at least one of the metrics. Salt marsh and ocean beach habitats experienced the most change (out of 16 categorical land cover types) across the three metrics and species that used salt marsh extensively (rails and marsh sparrows) were ranked highest for exposure to habitat changes. Species that nested on ocean beaches (Diamondback Terrapins, shorebirds, and terns) were also ranked highly, but their use of other foraging habitats reduced their overall exposure. Future studies on potential effects of SLR on vertebrates in southeastern coastal ecosystems should focus on the relative importance of different habitat types to these species' foraging and nesting requirements. Our straightforward prioritization approach is applicable to other coastal systems and can provide insight to managers on which species to focus resources, what components of their habitats need to be protected, and which locations in the study area will provide habitat refuges in the face of SLR.

Evaluating the Utility and Communicative Effectiveness of an Interactive Sea-Level Rise Viewer Through Stakeholder Engagement

The design of interactive applications for online communication is an ongoing area of research within technical communication. This study reports on the development of an interactive sea-level rise (SLR) viewer, a data visualization tool that communicates about the potential effects of SLR along coastlines. It describes the formative evaluation of a location-specific SLR viewer created via integral stakeholder engagement. Participants performed a series of tasks, answered questions about the tool's usability and communicative effectiveness, and made suggestions for ways to improve its application to desired tasks. The authors discuss the implications of this study for visual risk communication and make recommendations for others developing similar interactive data visualization tools with audience input.

A Simple Model that Identifies Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Estuarine and Estuary-Ecotone Habitat Locations for Salmonids in Oregon, USA

Diadromous aquatic species that cross a diverse range of habitats (including marine, estuarine, and freshwater) face different effects of climate change in each environment. One such group of species is the anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). Studies of the potential effects of climate change on salmonids have focused on both marine and freshwater environments. Access to a variety of estuarine habitat has been shown to enhance juvenile life-history diversity, thereby contributing to the resilience of many salmonid species. Our study is focused on the effect of sea-level rise on the availability, complexity, and distribution of estuarine, and low-freshwater habitat for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead (anadromous O. mykiss), and coho salmon (O. kisutch) along the Oregon Coast under future climate change scenarios. Using LiDAR, we modeled the geomorphologies of five Oregon estuaries and estimated a contour associated with the current mean high tide. Contour intervals at 1- and 2-m increments above the current mean high tide were generated, and changes in the estuary morphology were assessed. Because our analysis relied on digital data, we compared three types of digital data in one estuary to assess the utility of different data sets in predicting the changes in estuary shape. For each salmonid species, changes in the amount and complexity of estuarine edge habitats varied by estuary. The simple modeling approach we applied can also be used to identify areas that may be most amenable to pre-emptive restoration actions to mitigate or enhance salmonid habitat under future climatic conditions.

Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands in Southeastern Louisiana

Glick, P.; Clough, J.; Polaczyk, A.; Couvillion, B., and Nunley, B., 2013. Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana. In: Brock, J.C; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 211-233, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749–0208.Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

Hierarchical Organization of Ecosystems at Multiple Spatial Scales on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, U.S.A.

I conducted an ecological land survey near Hazen Bay, on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska during 1994–1998 in order to assess potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems in this region. Independent classification of three landscape components grouped ecological characteristics of the area into 10 geomorphic units (e.g., tidal flats, abandoned floodplain cover deposits), 9 surface forms (e.g., levees, basins), and 18 plant associations (e.g., Carex rariflora–Salix fuscescens). I then used hierarchical associations among these landscape components to derive an ecosystem classification at three levels of organization that included 10 ecosections (based on geomorphology), 11 ecoseries (based on surface forms and geomorphology), and 27 ecotypes (primarily based on vegetation).The nature and distribution of ecosystems at all levels showed a strong influence from geomorphic processes. The active floodplain, with frequent flooding and sedimentation, had brackish ecotypes that were dominated by graminoids and forbs. The inactive floodplain, where flooding and sedimentation were infrequent, had slightly brackish ecotypes with a wide diversity of species and growth forms. In contrast, the abandoned floodplain, which lacked flooding and sediment deposition, but was strongly affected by permafrost aggradation, had ecotypes that were dominated by evergreen shrubs, mosses, and lichens that were intolerant to salts, but tolerated acidic, nutrient-poor conditions. Ecotypes with similar vegetation generally had similar environmental properties, including surface elevation, soil morphology, sedimentation, organic matter accumulation, thaw depths, water depths, pH, and electrical conductivity. When similar ecotypes were aggregated into ecosections based on geomorphic similarities, differences in ecological properties increased.

Hierarchical Organization of Ecosystems at Multiple Spatial Scales on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, U.S.A.

I conducted an ecological land survey near Hazen Bay, on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska during 1994–1998 in order to assess potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems in this re...

The Political Ecology of Coastal Planning and Management in England and Wales: Policy Responses to the Implications of Sea-Level Rise

The potential effects of sea-level rise have heightened growing concerns over the effectiveness of the existing legal and administrative frameworks operating in the coastal zone. Of particular significance has been concern over the lack of coordination between coastal planning and coastal defence, together with the prevailing view in the past that coastal erosion and flooding are not planning issues. This paper outlines a number of the ways in which the Department of the Environment and local authorities have begun to address these issues.