Potential Economic Outcomes Research Articles

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market in the Finance and Manufacturing Industry

This paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market within the finance and manufacturing industries. The primary objective is to identify the new skills required, the emerging types of jobs, and the extent to which these sectors will be affected by AI advancements. By employing the Solow growth model, the study forecasts potential economic outcomes and provides a framework to understand AI's influence on productivity and employment.

Challenges and opportunities in achieving sustainable mud crab aquaculture in tropical coastal regions

Aquaculture plays a significant role in food security and provides livelihoods and employment for millions of people among coastal communities worldwide. However, the growing aquaculture sector has also created debates around its long-term ecological sustainability, economic viability, potential social inequalities and governance issues. We investigated the perceived challenges and opportunities to achieving sustainable mud crab aquaculture in tropical coastal regions by using the case study of coastal mud crab farms in Andhra Pradesh, India. Informed by perceptions and indicative financial data from a sample of stakeholders we investigated the potential economic outcomes under different scenarios representing varying yield levels, risk factors and project time periods. The main risks identified by the stakeholders were associated with the limited supply of mud crab seeds and the lack of access to governmental and non-governmental support schemes. There are no financial buffers, therefore major disease outbreaks or extreme weather conditions caused by climate change would lead to a loss of livelihoods. This paper also highlights the most critical factor determining the level of success of mud crab farming being the crab survival rate which is influenced by a variety of factors including increasing sea surface temperature. The results of this study show that small-scale mud crab farming has fewer risks and higher flexibility involved than large-scale mud crab farming. It could be an economically sustainable enterprise and serve as a tool for poverty alleviation in developing countries if microfinance support and training are available.

Concurrent 8. Presentation for: Collaborative development of the Northern Territory low-emissions carbon capture, utilisation and storage hub – a blueprint for the rapid decarbonisation of Northern Australia

Presented on Tuesday 17 May: Session 8 As the world increases its decarbonisation ambition, Australia is well placed to offer low emission intensity energy supplies to our region. Northern Australia’s plentiful resources mean that the region can be both an energy export and regional decarbonisation powerhouse. The Northern Territory has abundant natural gas and solar resources, significant carbon dioxide (CO2) storage capacity and proximity to international markets. This paper will summarise the development of the business case for a large-scale Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) hub based in the Northern Territory. The work is a result of a collaborative initiative to bring together experience and expertise from CSIRO, the Northern Territory Government, major gas industry emitters and engineering companies. The approach has been to develop a common vision of a low emission CCUS hub, develop an understanding of the key attributes of a hub, the development decisions, value drivers, market analysis and an understanding of potential economic outcomes that could be realised from its collaborative development. This work contemplates both initial and long-term economies of scale required to provide a pathway for decarbonisation of existing industries while providing opportunities for the development of new low-emission industries. To access the presentation click the link on the right. To read the full paper click here

Collaborative development of the Northern Territory low-emissions carbon capture, utilisation and storage hub – a blueprint for the rapid decarbonisation of Northern Australia

As the world increases its decarbonisation ambition, Australia is well placed to offer low emission intensity energy supplies to our region. Northern Australia’s plentiful resources mean that the region can be both an energy export and regional decarbonisation powerhouse. The Northern Territory has abundant natural gas and solar resources, significant carbon dioxide (CO2) storage capacity and proximity to international markets. This paper will summarise the development of the business case for a large-scale Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) hub based in the Northern Territory. The work is a result of a collaborative initiative to bring together experience and expertise from CSIRO, the Northern Territory Government, major gas industry emitters and engineering companies. The approach has been to develop a common vision of a low emission CCUS hub, develop an understanding of the key attributes of a hub, the development decisions, value drivers, market analysis and an understanding of potential economic outcomes that could be realised from its collaborative development. This work contemplates both initial and long-term economies of scale required to provide a pathway for decarbonisation of existing industries while providing opportunities for the development of new low-emission industries.

Food as medicine? Exploring the impact of providing healthy foods on adherence and clinical and economic outcomes

BackgroundChronic disease prevalence is increasing. Adherence to dietary guidelines is low (<50%) despite positive impacts in disease progression, clinical outcomes, and medical costs. It is important to summarize the impact of providing medically-tailored meals to patients on adherence rates, clinical outcomes, and potential economic outcomes. MethodsA systematic review was conducted to identify, extract, and appraise food-provision studies from January 1, 2013-May 1, 2018 for heart disease, diabetes (DM), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The key findings related to adherence and clinical outcomes were compiled. Published literature was utilized to determine the economic impact of key clinical outcomes. ResultsAcross diseases, 100 articles (N = 43,175 patients) were included. Dietary adherence was considered “compliant” or ≥ 90% consistently. Significant (p < 0.05) clinical outcomes included 5–10% LDL reduction, 4-11 mmHg SBP reduction, 30% reduction in metabolic syndrome prevalence, 3–5% weight reduction, 56% lower CKD mortality rates, and increased dialysis-free time (2 years:50%, 5 years:25%, calculated cost savings of 80.6–94.3%). Literature review showed these outcomes would result in decreased: cardiovascular (CV) event risk (20–30% reduction: $5–11 billion annually), hospitalization costs ($1–8 billion), and dialysis rates (25–50% reduction: $14–29 billion annually). For heart failure patients, results include: 16% fewer readmissions (saving $234,096 per 100 patients) and a 38-day shorter length of stay (saving $79,425 per hospitalization). ConclusionProviding medically-tailored meals significantly increases dietary adherence above 90% and allows patients to realize significantly better chronic disease control. Through this, patients could experience fewer complications (CV events, hospital readmissions and dialysis), resulting in significant annual US healthcare cost reduction of $27–48 billion.

What makes for a creative-friendly community? Untangling the location attributes of creative clusters

ABSTRACT Increasing investment in attracting creative clusters has become a quintessentially common practice at the municipal level, particularly in progressive cities, which have long been concerned with economic development. While rationales behind such investments are highly contingent on the potential economic outcomes of creative clusters, a thorough understanding of factors that help foster creative-friendly communities could facilitate municipal decision-making processes. This paper revisits factors relating to the location attributes of creative clusters that have hitherto remained insufficiently explored. Contributing to the development of creative-friendly communities, these factors complement the mainstream literature, which is overly preoccupied with the creative class theory, by addressing soft, cultural features as well as hard, material attributes, including the built environment, creative individuals, the local creative identity, networks and technology, leadership and the economic context, and the consumer market. This paper introduces a framework that incorporates those factors into three phases of creative activity, including idea-generation, production, and circulation/consumption, which operate on different tiers but nonetheless mutually interact. The paper reflects on the policy implications of the framework for local communities at large and concludes by proposing future avenues for research into how to promote creative-friendly communities.

Putting land to work: An evaluation of the economic effects of recultivating abandoned farmland

Agricultural land abandonment is a relevant occurrence in mountainous and peripheral regions all over the world. While both positive and negative environmental consequences of this abandonment are documented (depending on the specific location and scale), in rural areas it is always linked to a reduction in production and income. To address some of these problems, the several administrative layers within the European Union (EU) have put in place public policies that focus either on the immediate causes or on the consequences. Policies aimed at promoting recultivating formerly abandoned fields have usually tried simultaneously to address both the causes (e.g., to increase farm productivity/output) and the consequences (i.e., to manage fields according to specific criteria), but the potential economic outcomes of these measures are unknown. In this paper, we estimate the effect of recultivation of abandoned farmland on the economy of a case study region in NW Spain (Galicia). We propose that this effect can be used to guide decisions on the viable expenditure levels of recultivation policy. Concerning the methodology, we relied upon geographic information systems to show the area of land suitable for recultivation is relevant: i.e. recultivation policies could result in an increase of at least 16% of current farmland. Using Standard Production Coefficients per hectare we show that the total output (at constant prices) generated by the recultivation of abandoned land would amount to 413.3 million euros/year. Calculations based on input output methods suggest that the benefits of the recultivation policies would be an increase of 1% of the total regional Gross Value Added (GVA). We show that the input-output methods underestimate the benefits of cultivation policies based on total factor productivity (TFP) improvements, which fundamentally come from the reallocation of factors among the rest of the sectors of the economy. In particular, if recultivation policies increase agricultural TFP by 26% (in order to increase the demand of land by 16%) the overall effect rises to around 3% of the total regional GVA. These results suggest that the margin for the implementation of recultivation policies before they turn unadvisable from a purely economic point of view is rather ample.

Assessment of oil-producing wells by means of stimulation approach through matrix acidizing: a case study in the Azraq region

The acidizing approach belongs to the well workover operations, where acid mixtures are initially implemented to treat damage near the wellbore area after drilling operations have been completed. Acidizing treatment is characterized by removal of fine particles and debris from the porous media of the damaged zone, hence leading to improve oil production from wells. This study evaluates the assessment of the acidizing treatment in vertical oil-producing wells. Gradually, the damage formation was reduced and then eliminated, and to a great extent, was compensated with the better performance of oil production from reservoirs. Target candidate wells were enriched by environmentally friendly additives and special chemicals, in predefined amounts, to achieve enhanced oil production rates from wells. A semi-analytical model was formulated for extrapolating the skin magnitude, depending on the damage formation’s permeability parameter as well as on the physical characteristics and reservoir depth. The figures of skin magnitude for all target wells were decreased, and oil production rates were enhanced after performing the matrix acidizing process. These findings are valid for diverse geological settings of different formations, as all treated intervals within the investigated wells have shown an objective response to the matrix acidizing approach. Eventually, productivity rates are imperative to increase potential economic outcomes.

Fire lines as fault lines: increased trade barriers during the COVID-19 pandemic further shatter the global food system.

In this opinion piece, we highlight that trade barriers established during COVID-19 as “fire lines” to prevent cross-border transmission of the pandemic could become “fault lines” that demolish the global food system. We review restrictions on both international agricultural exports and imports, especially unilateral border controls such as import refusals and alerts, in previous epidemics and arising with two novel features amid COVID-19. Institutional causes to pervasive trade barriers in epidemics that are embedded in the WHO-WTO coordination scheme have been discussed. In the meantime, discussions on potential economic outcomes and policy recommendations have been provided.

Commercial Orbital Transportation Services: A Case Study for National Industrial Policy

Abstract Debates over U.S. space policies often focus on the potential economic outcomes of funding a civilian space agency. NASA has consequently become an outlier in a political climate that has ...

Women at War: Understanding the Impacts of Combat on Women’s Educational Attainment

This paper offers a first view on the potential economic outcomes for American women serving along-side men in combat roles. Specifically, this paper examines the impact of deployment and exposure to intense combat for women who served in the most high-risk occupations open to them in Iraq and Afghanistan on their subsequent use of GI bill benefits for higher education. It also compares these women to men who served in the same capacities and women who served in lower risk occupations. Women in general, and in these occupations in particular, were more likely than their male counterparts to use the GI bill. Following deployment, this paper presents robust evidence that women in all capacities, and men, were more likely to use their GI bill benefits. Moreover, exposure to intense combat, which was far more likely to impact these women than other women, detracted from their propensity to use the GI bill. This negative impact on pursuit of higher education was similar for both men and women. Taken together, this paper provides evidence that deployment may benefit the young men and women alike who serve in the U.S. military, and that both suffer together when faced with exposure to intense fighting.

Market-Driven Scenarios: An Approach for Plausible Scenario Construction

The use of scenario analysis to better understand portfolios has increased significantly since the global financial crisis. In this article, the authors describe a stress scenario framework and process that has been developed for risk management and investment management purposes. This hybrid framework, which the authors refer to as market-driven scenarios, works as follows. Scenario forecasts of key market indicators are first formulated by market practitioners. An econometric framework then uses these indicators as inputs to imply plausible shocks to a global set of risk factors. These factor shocks are finally put into a portfolio valuation engine, yielding hypothetical fund profit and loss (P&L) that can be decomposed into its underlying drivers. Key to the effectiveness of this approach is the cross-functional involvement of investors, risk managers, and economists. In conjunction, the authors define potential geopolitical or other macro events, specify potential economic outcomes, and translate them into shocks to key policy risk variables and risk model factors. The process is completed by applying the shocks to portfolios and evaluating whether P&L outcomes are consistent with fund mandates and whether positioning is deliberate, diversified, and scaled.

Potential cost savings of medication therapy management in safety-net clinics

To evaluate potential cost savings based on estimated cost avoidance from medication therapy management (MTM) services delivered in safety-net clinics over 4 years. High-risk patients taking multiple medications and with chronic conditions were referred for MTM services in primary care safety-net clinics in Maryland from October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2013. Medication-related problems (MRPs) were identified and pharmacists' costs determined to evaluate the estimated cost savings and return on investment (ROI). A range of potential economic outcomes for each MRP identified was assigned to a cost avoidance for outpatient visit, urgent care visit, emergency department visit, and/or hospitalization. Over 4 years, 246 patients received MTM, nearly 2,100 medications were reviewed, and 814 MRPs were identified. The most common MRPs identified were subtherapeutic doses, nonadherence, and untreated indications, with respective prevalences of 38%, 19%, and 16%. The corresponding costs of medical services were estimated at $115,220-$614,570 for all MRPs identified, yielding a mean of $141.55-$755.00 per identified MRP. Pharmacists' expenses for encounters were calculated at a total expenditure of $57,307.50 for 16,965 minutes. ROI based on the time spent during billable face-to-face encounters ranged from 1:5 to 1:25. Pharmacist-provided MTM in safety-net clinics yielded potential economic benefits to the organization. The Primary Care Coalition of Montgomery County plans to expand MTM services to additional clinics to improve patient care and increase cost savings through preventable medical services.

Metro nature, environmental health, and economic value.

BackgroundNearly 40 years of research provides an extensive body of evidence about human health, well-being, and improved function benefits associated with experiences of nearby nature in cities.ObjectivesWe demonstrate the numerous opportunities for future research efforts that link metro nature, human health and well-being outcomes, and economic values.MethodsWe reviewed the literature on urban nature-based health and well-being benefits. In this review, we provide a classification schematic and propose potential economic values associated with metro nature services.DiscussionEconomic valuation of benefits derived from urban green systems has largely been undertaken in the fields of environmental and natural resource economics, but studies have not typically addressed health outcomes. Urban trees, parks, gardens, open spaces, and other nearby nature elements—collectively termed metro nature—generate many positive externalities that have been largely overlooked in urban economics and policy. Here, we present a range of health benefits, including benefit context and beneficiaries. Although the understanding of these benefits is not yet consistently expressed, and although it is likely that attempts to link urban ecosystem services and economic values will not include all expressions of cultural or social value, the development of new interdisciplinary approaches that integrate environmental health and economic disciplines are greatly needed.ConclusionsMetro nature provides diverse and substantial benefits to human populations in cities. In this review, we begin to address the need for development of valuation methodologies and new approaches to understanding the potential economic outcomes of these benefits.CitationWolf KL, Robbins AS. 2015. Metro nature, environmental health, and economic value. Environ Health Perspect 123:390–398; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408216

Nonprofit Collaboration And The Resurrection Of Market Failure

Collaboration is among the core values of many in the nonprofit sector (Oster 1995, Huxam and Vangen 2005. Though research has examined the prevalence of collaboration and network governance in the nonprofit sector, little empirical work has examined the potential economic outcomes of a resource sharing environment. This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology to demonstrate that while collaboration and resource sharing can maximize achievement of social objectives in resource-rich environments, it may be detrimental to the achievement of social objectives in a limited resource environment. These findings suggest that some social objectives that are not met in market or government settings may also not be met in nonprofit settings when collaboration is encouraged. This result has key implications for the matching of social institutions and social objectives.

Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050

Abstract We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in Mozambique. We pass a distribution of climate shocks through a series of structural biophysical models. The resulting joint distributions of biophysical outcomes are then imposed on a dynamic economywide model. This framework produces distributions of economic impacts of climate change thus identifying an explicit range of potential economic outcomes and associating probability levels with given sets of outcomes. For example, we find that the economy of Mozambique may be up to 13 % smaller in 2050 compared with a fictional no climate change scenario (and assuming global policy fails to constrain emissions growth). The probability of gross domestic product (GDP) declines of greater than 10 % is relatively small at 2.5 %. These large declines are principally the result of dramatic reductions in flood return periods. To 2050, about 70 % of future climates result in GDP losses of between zero and five percent. In about 9 % of cases, climate change shocks result in higher GDP outcomes. We conclude that, relative to current practice, this structural probabilistic approach provides (i) significantly more information to decision-makers, (ii) more detailed insight into the importance of various impact channels, and (iii) a more holistic and comprehensive approach for evaluating adaptation options.

Flat-rate tax systems and their effect on labor markets

The potential economic outcomes resulting from a flat rate of income tax have been the subject of an ongoing academic and political debate. Many observers have suggested that the introduction of a flat tax would be beneficial for a country’s economy, having a positive influence on the labor market and the gross domestic product by enhancing incentives to work, save, invest, and take risks. A flat tax also significantly simplifies income taxation which increases tax compliance and reduces tax planning, avoidance, and evasion. However, despite flat taxes being on the political agenda in many countries, in practice their implementation has mostly been restricted to the transition economy countries of Eastern Europe. There is no one single flat tax system in place in these countries though; one rate does not fit all.

Historical perspective and better regulatory governance: An agenda for institutional reform

AbstractCompared to economics, sociology, political science, and law, the discipline of history has had a limited role in the wide‐ranging efforts to reconsider strategies of regulatory governance, especially inside regulatory institutions. This article explores how more sustained historical perspective might improve regulatory decisionmaking. We first survey how a set of American regulatory agencies currently rely on historical research and analysis, whether for the purposes of public relations or as a means of supporting policymaking. We then consider how regulatory agencies might draw on history more self‐consciously, more strategically, and to greater effect. Three areas stand out in this regard – the use of history to improve understanding of institutional culture; reliance on historical analysis to test the empirical plausibility of conceptual models that make assumptions about the likelihood of potential economic outcomes; and integration of historical research methods into program and policy evaluation.