Postal Districts Research Articles

Flat rent price prediction in Berlin with web scraping

Internet data pose a challenge to the traditional system of official statistics, which relies on more conventional sources such as surveys and registers, not readily adaptable to rapid changes. Expanding this system to include internet data is currently at an experimental stage, exploring these sources’ potentials and benefits. This paper describes a project conducted within the ESSnet Trusted Smart Statistics – Web Intelligence Network framework. It investigates the use of online apartment listings to analyze the rental market. We used web scraping to extract information from two online real estate portals for flats in the city of Berlin. Using this data, we developed a model to predict rental prices per square meter based on the accommodation’s features and location within the city. We detected offers which appear in both portals by means of statistical matching and removed duplicate offers. Missing values were treated by multiple imputation. The prediction model is a semi-parametric approach where the postal districts are used to describe the location effect. Comparisons with microcensus results and the local rent index reveal significant differences between the market of online flat offers and the stock of existing flat contracts. Interested readers will find the commented programming code in the internet supplement.

Reference values for accelerometer metrics and associations with cardiorespiratory fitness: a prospective cohort study of healthy adults and patients with heart failure

Reference values for accelerometer metrics and associations with cardiorespiratory fitness: a prospective cohort study of healthy adults and patients with heart failure

Adoption and continued use of mobile contact tracing technology: multilevel explanations from a three-wave panel survey and linked data

ObjectiveTo identify the key individual-level (demographics, attitudes, mobility) and contextual (COVID-19 case numbers, tiers of mobility restrictions, urban districts) determinants of adopting the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app and continued...

Spatial analysis of COVID-19 hospitalised cases in an entire city: The risk of studying only lattice data

We live in a global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 disease where severe social distancing measures are necessary. Some of these measures have been taken into account by the administrative boundaries within cities (neighborhoods, postal districts, etc.). However, considering only administrative boundaries in decision making can prove imprecise, and could have consequences when it comes to taking effective measures. To solve the described problems, we present an epidemiological study that proposes using spatial point patterns to delimit spatial units of analysis based on the highest local incidence of hospitalisations instead of administrative limits during the first COVID-19 wave.For this purpose, the 579 addresses of the cases hospitalised between March 3 and April 6, 2020, in Albacete (Spain), and the addresses of the random sample of 383 controls from the Inhabitants Register of the city of Albacete, were georeferenced.The risk ratio in those hospitalised for COVID-19 was compatible with the constant risk ratio in Albacete (p = 0.49), but areas with a significantly higher risk were found and coincided with those with greater economic inequality (Gini Index). Moreover, two districts had areas with a significantly high incidence that were masked by others with a significantly low incidence.In conclusion, taking measures conditioned exclusively by administrative limits in a pandemic can cause problems caused by managing entire districts with lax measures despite having interior areas with high significant incidences. In a pandemic context, georeferencing disease cases in real time and spatially comparing them to updated random population controls to automatically and accurately detect areas with significant incidences are suggested. This would facilitate decision making, which must be fast and accurate in these situations.

Residential Proximity to Zika Case Locations and Fertility Decline Among Married Couples in Singapore

Objective Latin American regions with higher Zika-linked microcephaly caseloads have experienced steeper declines in fertility. However, there is little research on geographical variability of response within states or cities. Due to the short flight dispersal of the vector mosquito, outbreaks tend to occur in small localized clusters of diameters of less than one kilometer in urban settings. This study investigates whether fertility decline was greater in postal districts with publicly disclosed Zika cases compared to unexposed districts within the city state of Singapore. Methods Survey data were collected from 657 married women aged 25-34 to retrospectively identify timing of conception leading to live births or ongoing pregnancies, generating 14,578 person-month observations between January 2015 and December 2017. The effect of living in a postal district with known Zika cases was estimated using a fixed effects regression model. Findings Average monthly probability of conception fell during the Zika epidemic in both exposed and unexposed postal districts. Regression results suggest that the decline was not significantly greater in districts with known cases. Discussion Despite the localized nature of arboviral outbreaks in urban settings, the fertility response to perceived health threats posed by the Zika virus was city-wide. There is little evidence that public disclosures of outbreak locations led to a disproportionate response in affected neighborhoods.

Do Online Ads Influence Vote Choice?

Do online ads influence vote choice? We partner with a German party to evaluate the effectiveness of online ads using a cluster-randomized experiment. During the 2016 Berlin state election, 189 postal districts were randomly assigned to (a) emotional ads; (b) factual ads; or (c) no ads. Analyzing electoral results at the postal district level, we find that the overall campaign weakly increased the party’s vote share by 0.7 percentage points (p-value = 0.155). We also estimate a negative effect of the campaign on the vote share of the party’s main competitors of 1.4 percentage points (p-value = 0.094). Turning to the mechanism of persuasion, we find that the factual ads, if anything, fared slightly better than the emotional ads. Our evidence thus provides tentative support that online ads positively affect vote choice.

Modelling the problem of parcel distribution in urban environments and analysis of the determining factors

Abstract This research has the objective to develop a model for the location selection of Automated Parcel Delivery Terminals to optimize the overall service, increasing satisfaction and consumption of users and reducing costs. A combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology with a geographic information system (GIS) has been applied to identify the influencing factors and perform the analysis of the alternatives. A case study focused on the city of Zaragoza, and specifically to a Spanish postal parcel delivery company, has been carried out to assess the model behavior. For this, a representative sampling of the postal districts and sections of Zaragoza has been performed, identifying the characteristics of the study areas. Next, sections and all possible locations have been identified and selected for study. Finally, the AHP methodology has been applied for the prioritization of alternatives. Results have shown that the operative criterion, accessibility (both pedestrian and with vehicle), time availability and safety are the most important elements to focus on, for solving the location selection problem. In addition, the use of GIS allows analyzing diverse urban areas in an agile and effective way.

Dietary Determinants of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Lean and Non-Lean Adult Patients: A Population-Based Study in Shiraz, Southern Iran

Background: Dietary components predisposing to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been conflicting to date. This study aimed to compare macro and micronutrients and food intake among non-lean and lean patients with NAFLD. Methods: Adult people older than 18 years from seven postal districts of Shiraz, Iran, were selected using multistage cluster randomized sampling. Nutrition status was queried by a standard food frequency questionnaire and NAFLD was detected by sonography. The participants were divided into four groups: non lean-NAFLD (participants with NAFLD and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), lean-NAFLD (participants with NAFLD, BMI < 25 kg/m2), Non lean-Non NAFLD (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 without NAFLD), lean-non NAFLD (BMI < 25 kg/m2 without NAFLD). Results: Of 478 participants, 204 (42.7%) were lean and 95 (19.9%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. The median age of interviewees was 42 years and male to female ratio was 0.7. Overall, starchy foods and potato intake was significantly different between the groups. In non-lean group, potato intake was higher among NAFLD compared to non-NAFLD (P = 0.02) individuals and in lean group, total starchy food intake was higher in those with NAFLD compared to the counterpart group (P = 0.02). Our study revealed that after adjusting for confounders, for each gram increase in carbohydrate intake, the chance of NAFLD increased by 1.99 times (95% CI: 1.982 - 1.997; P = 0.004). Also, for each gram increase in potato consumption, the risk of the disease increased by more than 2.5-fold (OR = 2.584; 95% CI: 1.281 - 5.213, P = 0.008). Moreover, NAFLD had an association with the intake of fat and the intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (P = 0.01 and P = 0.02, respectively). Conclusions: Besides studying NAFLD in obese patients, lean NAFLD patients should not be neglected and more studies should be conducted to assess their dietary intake. It seems greater attention should be given to fat and starches than before in order to prevent the rising trend of NAFLD in population.

The benefits of utilising geo-mapping for visualising the vitamin D status of Dublin city and the surrounding urban districts.

There have been few published reports of visualising vitamin D status at a micro level, i.e., within large individual urban centres of countries. To produce a visual map of the vitamin D status [25-hydroxy vitamin D-25(OH)D] of a large urban centre (n>350,000) incorporating the regions of Dublin city that constitute the general practitioner catchment area of a large academic teaching adult hospital. An observational investigation of 5287 free living Irish adults (>18years). Approximately, 15.2% of those sampled in the winter period (October-February) were vitamin D deficient (<30nmol/L) compared with 10.8% of those sampled in the summer period (March-September). Vitamin D tests requested from the most social economically deprived urban locations (Dublin 8 and Lucan postal districts) had the highest rates of deficiency (23.5 and 20.4%, respectively, both seasons). On average, females had a significantly higher 25(OH)D concentration compared with males (57.9 vs 52.3nmol/L, respectively), while the younger participants (18-50years) mean 25(OH)D concentration was 27% lower in winter and 20.7% lower in summer in comparison with the older participants (>50years) (P<0.0001). For the first time in Ireland, a visual depiction of data can be used to aid in the rapid identification of vitamin D status trends within a major urban area. These findings provide useful data to help inform public health policy regarding endemic vitamin D insufficiency to help target the population groups and resident location areas most at risk.

Uniform Service, Uniform Productivity? Regional Efficiency of the Imperial German Postal, Telegraph, and Telephone Service

Using the regional productivity of the Reichspost, the postal service of the German Empire, I investigate whether a public monopolist operates with uniform regional productivity. Using data envelopment analysis efficiency scores, we derive the relative productivity of the post, telegraph, and telephone sectors from 1891 to 1908. Results show a fairly stable system with substantial raw productivity differences between postal districts, and that the expansion of the service offset technological productivity increases for the mail service.

Geographically varying associations between personality and life satisfaction in the London metropolitan area

Residential location is thought to influence people's well-being, but different individuals may value residential areas differently. We examined how life satisfaction and personality traits are geographically distributed within the UK London metropolitan area, and how the strength of associations between personality traits and life satisfaction vary by residential location (i.e., personality-neighborhood interactions). Residential area was recorded at the level of postal districts (216 districts, n = 56,019 participants). Results indicated that the strength of associations between personality traits and life satisfaction depended on neighborhood characteristics. Higher openness to experience was more positively associated with life satisfaction in postal districts characterized by higher average openness to experience, population density, and ethnic diversity. Higher agreeableness and conscientiousness were more strongly associated with life satisfaction in postal districts with lower overall levels of life satisfaction. The associations of extraversion and emotional stability were not modified by neighborhood characteristics. These findings suggest that people's life satisfaction depends, in part, on the interaction between individual personality and particular features of the places they live.

Wait Times for Mohs Micrographic Surgery in Ottawa, Ontario

The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, in coordination with Cancer Care Ontario, records and analyzes wait times for cancer surgery in the province of Ontario. However, this strategy does not include wait times for skin cancer surgery. The wait times and referral patterns of patients undergoing Mohs micrographic surgery at The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) were examined to better assess the adequacy of access to skin cancer treatment in Ontario. The records of 101 Mohs surgeries (96 patients) consecutively performed at TOH between June 14, 2010, and October 19, 2010, were reviewed. The interval between the date the referral for Mohs surgery was first received and the date of surgery was calculated for each case. The specialty of the referring physician and the postal code of each patient treated were also recorded. The average wait time between the date of referral and the date of surgery was 122.6 days or 17.5 weeks (median 124 days, 17.7 weeks). Over 75% of patients waited over 12 weeks (84 days) for cancer surgery. All Mohs surgery patients treated at TOH resided within postal districts in eastern and northern Ontario. The current wait time for Mohs surgery in the Ottawa region is beyond the standard for cancer treatment. Improving access to care and incorporating Mohs surgery into the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care's Wait Time Strategy might significantly improve this.

Geographic-Time Distribution of Ambulance Calls in Singapore: Utility of Geographic Information System in Ambulance Deployment (CARE 3)

Pre-hospital ambulance calls are not random events, but occur in patterns and trends that are related to movement patterns of people, as well as the geographical epidemiology of the population. This study describes the geographic-time epidemiology of ambulance calls in a large urban city and conducts a time demand analysis. This will facilitate a Systems Status Plan for the deployment of ambulances based on the most cost effective deployment strategy. An observational prospective study looking at the geographic-time epidemiology of all ambulance calls in Singapore. Locations of ambulance calls were spot mapped using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology. Ambulance response times were mapped and a demand analysis conducted by postal districts. Between 1 January 2006 and 31 May 2006, 31,896 patients were enrolled into the study. Mean age of patients was 51.6 years (S.D. 23.0) with 60.0% male. Race distribution was 62.5% Chinese, 19.4% Malay, 12.9% Indian and 5.2% others. Trauma consisted 31.2% of calls and medical 68.8%. 9.7% of cases were priority 1 (most severe) and 70.1% priority 2 (moderate severity). Mean call receipt to arrival at scene was 8.0 min (S.D. 4.8). Call volumes in the day were almost twice those at night, with the most calls on Mondays. We found a definite geographical distribution pattern with heavier call volumes in the suburban town centres in the Eastern and Southern part of the country. We characterised the top 35 districts with the highest call volumes by time periods, which will form the basis for ambulance deployment plans. We found a definite geographical distribution pattern of ambulance calls. This study demonstrates the utility of GIS with despatch demand analysis and has implications for maximising the effectiveness of ambulance deployment.

Income differences within municipalities in Finland, 1989–1997

Differences in income between population groups in Finland have begun to increase since the recession of the early 1990s. These differences are examined here in terms of mean taxable incomes per household in 1989, 1993 and 1997 in 1 × 1 km grid cells, and the results are compared with those obtained using postal districts and municipalities as areal units. In spite of the increase, taxable income differences within municipalities are still relatively small. It is clear, however, that incomes have risen more in areas of increasing population than in areas of declining population. The results also indicate that the smaller the areal unit used, the greater the income differences, and vice versa. Thus the results of analyses based on different areal units cannot necessarily be regarded as comparable.

Clinical outcomes of one-to-one midwifery practice

One-to-one midwifery was established in 1993 to put into practice the principles of Changing Childbirth. This second cohort study was undertaken to assess differences between one-to-one and standard care and to assess whether or not differences had persisted since an early study. A random sample of all women receiving standard care (postal districts W4 and W6) and of all women receiving one-to-one care (postal districts W3 and W12) who were expecting to give birth in the same NHS Trust between 15May 1997 and 14May 1998 were invited to enter the study of women's responses to care, the notes of all women were audited. Clinical endpoints were specified in advance, these were: caesarean and assisted delivery rates, epidural rates in those not having elective caesarean section, rates of intact perineum in those not having elective caesarean section, and labour duration. Satisfaction with care was recorded through the postal questionnaires. These endpoints were analysed using linear and logistic regression adjusting for prespecified confounders. There was a lower rate of all clinical interventions associated with one-to-one care and rates of satisfaction were higher. Differences were increased from the first cohort study.

Community survey of the distribution of Lumholtz's Tree-kangaroo on the Atherton Tablelands, north-east Queensland

Lumholtz's Tree-kangaroo Dendrolagus lumholtzi is endemic to the rainforests of north Queensland, Australia. Most records of D. lumholtzi are from upland forests on the Atherton Tablelands, an area extensively cleared for agriculture. In 1997, residents of the Tablelands formed the Tree Kangaroo and Mammal Group Inc. (TKMG) with the aim of promoting the conservation of the species. The first project of TKMG was an intensive community-based survey of the distribution of D. lumholtzi. Residents of all postal districts encompassing areas of upland rainforest within the range of D. lumholtzi were sent a written questionnaire seeking details of tree-kangaroo sightings. The Malanda postal district was surveyed in 1998 while all other postal districts were surveyed in 1999. In total, 10 122 questionairres were distributed in the survey. "Nearly 800 responses were received to the survey, providing 2 368 sighting records of D. lumholtzi. Of these, 367 records were of dead tree-kangaroos, mostly road-kills." The survey has provided a much more comprehensive account of the distribution of the species than was previously available. Most records of D. lumholtzi obtained in the survey were from upland forests between Atherton and Ravenshoe, particularly remnant forests in the central and western Tablelands. Although the survey methodology is biased towards areas frequented by humans, these patterns are consistent with independent surveys. The conservation of D. lumholtzi on the Tablelands would benefit from the protection of remnant forests, the restoration of habitat and a reduction in the incidence of road-kills and dog attacks on tree-kangaroos.

Inner-city hospital closures in Dublin: implications for general practice

The Meath, Adelaide and National Children's Hospitals provided more than 300,000 ambulatory care episodes in 1996, half to residents of the adjacent inner-city postal districts. With the closure of the group in 1998, alternative care arrangements must now be provided. This paper examines the socio-economic and primary care characteristics of the communities most affected. Data on the 13 District Electoral Divisions surrounding the hospitals are drawn from a range of published sources. The populations affected include 52% in social classes 5 to 7, have an average Standardised Mortality Ratio of 122, have high levels of GMS eligibility and include special care issues such as drug dependency. A total of 38 GPs cover the area. Other markers of deprivation are summarised. The areas most affected by the closures have existing high levels of deprivation and social and medical need. Initiatives to respond to the closures must address these needs.

Socio-economic deprivation and the prevalence and prediction of depression in older community residents. The MRC-ALPHA Study.

The Townsend index is a measure of social deprivation. It can be applied to postal districts and has been employed in studies examining the ecological associations of mental illness. We examine the utility of the Townsend index in identifying older populations with a high prevalence and risk of developing depression. The study was carried out in the context of a cohort study of an age- and gender-stratified sample of 5222 community residents aged 65 years and over. Subjects were interviewed at intervals of two years. The relationships between Townsend score and psychiatric diagnoses (in particular, depression) were examined. High Townsend scores were associated with increased prevalence and incidence of depression and prevalence of organic psychiatric illness. The Townsend index can be used to prioritize psychiatric and primary care resources so as to cater for older populations likely to suffer from depression and organic psychiatric conditions.

Clinical interventions and outcomes of One-to-One midwifery practice

Changing Childbirth became policy for the maternity services in England in 1994 and remains policy. One-to-One midwifery was implemented to achieve the targets set. It was the first time such a service had been implemented in the Health Service. An evaluation was undertaken to compare its performance with conventional maternity care. This was a prospective comparative study of women receiving One-to-One care and women receiving the system of care that One-to-One replaced (conventional care) to compare achievement of continuity of carer and clinical outcomes. The evaluation took place in The Hammersmith Hospitals NHS Trust, the Queen Charlotte's and Hammersmith Hospitals. This was part of a larger study, which included the evaluation of women's responses, cost implications, and clinical standards and staff reactions. The participants were all those receiving One-to-One midwifery practice (728 women), which was confined to two postal districts, and all women receiving care in the system that One-to-One replaced, in two adjacent postal districts (675 women), and expecting to give birth between 15 August 1994 and 14 August 1995. Main outcome measures were achievement of continuity of care, rates of interventions in labour, length of labour, maternal and infant morbidity, and breastfeeding rates. A high degree of continuity was achieved through the whole process of maternity care. One-to-One women saw fewer staff at each stage of their care, knew more of the staff who they did see, and had a high level of constant support in labour. One-to-One practice was associated with a significant reduction in the use of epidural anaesthesia (odds ratio (OR) 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 0.59 (0.44, 0.80)), with lower rates of episiotomy and perineal lacerations (OR 95 per cent CI = 0.70 (0.50, 0.98)), and with shorter second stage labour (median 40 min vs 48 min). There were no statistically significant differences in operative and assisted delivery or breastfeeding rates. This study confirms that One-to-One midwifery practice can provide a high degree of continuity of carer, and is associated with a reduction in the rate of a number of interventions, without compromising safety of care. It should be extended locally and replicated in other services under continuing evaluation.

Perinatal death in ethnic minorities in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate differences in perinatal death rate and associated obstetric risk factors between ethnic groups in the Netherlands. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study based on the 1990-1993 birth cohorts in...