Post-referendum Period Research Articles

Trick or treat? The Brexit effect on immigrants’ mental health in the United Kingdom

This paper investigates changes in the mental health of immigrants living in the United Kingdom (UK) during the European Union (EU) referendum. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, this paper assesses how the mental health of immigrants has changed before and after the referendum, compared to natives. Findings suggest that following the EU referendum result, mental health significantly improved overall for naturalised immigrants as a whole and for non-EU immigrants, relative to the changes in natives. Further, there is no evidence that mental health worsened even for EU immigrants. Our results vary by gender, with non-EU women experiencing a statistically significant improvement in mental health. The results are robust to several checks, including using balanced panel data and individual fixed effects. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the end of free movement for EU immigrants has alleviated the perception of discrimination against non-EU immigrants. This interpretation is supported by empirical results from a multinomial logit showing that non-EU migrants, particularly women, are more likely to perceive discrimination for race-related reasons when denied a job, an effect which is no longer significant in the post-referendum period.

Brexit and ‘Global Britain’: role adaptation and contestation in trade policy

AbstractBrexit has led to major changes in UK trade policy after decades of collective trade agreements and regulatory alignment with the European Union. Following the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership, the idea of ‘Global Britain’ was touted as the central goal in securing policy autonomy and regulatory independence with respect to trade, rooted in a strong sense of liberalization unencumbered by the perceived constraints of European membership. This article suggests that the UK’s role conception as a global trading (and finance) state has been revived by Brexit. Yet the performance of this role has been mixed. Role adaptation is far from complete, and evidence from the postreferendum period suggests that the post-Brexit economy has failed to fulfil the optimistic expectations of the those who favoured Brexit. In trade, the UK has been buffeted by the post-Brexit relationship with the EU and the changing demands of the global political economy.

The diplomacy of ‘Global Britain’: settling, safeguarding and seeking status

AbstractBrexit has induced a diplomatic reorientation on the part of the UK. In the post-referendum period, the UK has sought both to re-make its relationshipwithEurope (mainly through negotiating a position as a third country to the EU) and to reset its broader foreign and security policy objectivesbeyondEurope. This article explores how this has been pursued through the reinforcement of Britain’s identity, role and status as a Euro-Atlantic power, alongside a ‘plurilateral’ approach that has emphasised partnerships and foreign policy issues within and beyond Europe. Through an examination of the UK’s developing relationship with the EU and role in the United Nations and the Commonwealth, the article explores how the UK Government has sought to project British influence and to preserve the UK’s status as an international actor of note.

The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit

This paper analyzes recent developments in the British and European government bond markets with reference to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. The two main goals of the study are, firstly, to examine whether the Brexit referendum result has affected the risk premium and, secondly, whether there are any changes in risk pricing following the referendum. The paper finds a significant impact of the Brexit referendum on the risk premium in selected economies. Furthermore, the results suggest that there is a considerable change in risk pricing after the announcement of the referendum result. Credit default risk and the risk aversion play a much important role in the post-referendum period than they did prior to the vote, particularly in the UK.

A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Assessing the Pre- and Post-Brexit Preferences of UK Citizens

We analyze the persistence of the major determinants of distrust toward the European Union (EU) and pro-Brexit voting attitudes of citizens of the United Kingdom. Looking both backward and forward, our analysis confirms that Euroscepticism is deep-rooted, although the data reveal differences across different parts of the country. We observe no major transformation in the favor of the EU over the last two decades or in the post-referendum period. We also carry out an age-period-cohort analysis by interacting age and cohort effects with time to analyze the evolution of individual preferences. We find that an aging population will promote Eurosceptic assertiveness. We then implement a demographic forecasting analysis to predict whether the level of distrust of older cohorts can be offset by differing attitudes among younger cohorts in the future. On the contrary, we find that demographic trends will tend to strengthen distrust in the EU.

The Brexit Premium

I quantify the impact of no-deal Brexit (the potential departure of UK from EU without a withdrawal agreement) on European equity prices. I document their overwhelmingly negative response upon Brexit referendum results announcements and show that varying degrees of Brexit exposure explain differences in returns on European stocks between July 2016 and December 2019. I show that both results are far more pronounced in the UK than they are in the rest of the EU-15 region - numerous negative projections for various sectors and individual firms in the EU-14 economy are not corroborated by the equity market response. I exploit the cross-sectional variation in European equity returns to construct a Brexit mimicking portfolio tracking latent Brexit shocks over time. I show that it can explain significant amount of time-series variation of European stock market in the post-referendum period. Finally, its correlations with the European stock market indices suggest Brexit constitutes far greater and more lasting a shock to the local UK than the EU economy.

Re-framing free movement in the countdown to Brexit? Shifting UK press portrayals of EU migrants in the wake of the referendum

This article argues that long-standing press portrayals of economic migrants as threats to Britain’s economic wellbeing underwent a marked turn immediately after the 2016 ‘Brexit’ referendum. Following an intense campaign during which most national newspapers problematised European Union free movement, the month after the vote saw even ‘Euro-sceptic’ titles shift towards emphasising the economic costs of ending it. Within six months, however, discourses framing migrants as ‘invaders’ and/or ‘exploiters’ resurfaced. The article conceptualises the immediate post-referendum period as one of discursive aftershock, as key actors struggled to absorb the outcome and newspapers accustomed to years of spoon-feeding with simplistic pro- and anti-European Union rhetoric scrambled to find fresh sources of newsworthy conflict in a ‘post-war’ climate. In so doing, it contributes to our understanding of the multidirectional complexity of the agenda-setting process, by showing how shifts in the nature of public debate can help re-frame the narrative preoccupations of the media.

Network topology of FTSE 100 Index companies: From the perspective of Brexit

This study uses cross correlations in the daily closing prices of the London stock exchange FTSE 100 index companies from July 2010 to March 2018 to compute minimum spanning tree structures. A key aim of this study is to analyze the topological evolution of the market from the perspective of Brexit referendum. Therefore, the overall sample is divided into two sub-periods of equal time windows of pre-referendum, and post-referendum to obtain minimum spanning trees. The findings show formation of two major clusters belonging to financial, and consumer services sectors. Results further show surprising effect of Brexit referendum in form of expansion of tree after the event. The pre-referendum period tree demonstrates a less stable structure as compared to post-referendum period tree that shows weakening in the degree of connections per node. The sub metrics MST confirms the evidence of predominant central position by companies belonging to financials and consumer services sectors, while bridge role is being played by industrials sector afterwards referendum. In addition, the risk of affecting MST in the post-referendum period is lower in comparison with pre-referendum period suggesting a positive impact of Brexit referendum on FTSE 100 index companies.

The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets

Using event-study techniques, we investigate the impact of Brexit-related events on the corporate bond yield spreads in the United Kingdom and Eurozone, respectively. We want to find out whether Brexit-related news, including the Brexit referendum itself, had an impact on the risk conditions in those two corporate bond markets. Our estimation results indicate that the announcement of the referendum result is associated with increasing credit spreads in the UK and EA. However, only the actual announcement of the UK referendum result itself had an influence on the credit spreads. Furthermore, we distinguish between the financial and the non-financial economic sectors in order to analyze more specific sector-related effects of the referendum event. Our estimation results suggest that UK credit spreads were more strongly influenced by the announcement of the results of the Brexit referendum than credit bond spreads in the Eurozone were. Finally, we split our sample into pre-referendum and post-referendum periods to consider the potential changing evaluation of the determinants of corporate bond spreads due to altering risk pricing triggered by the Brexit referendum result. We find that the effect of credit default risk is far stronger and plays a significant role in the post-referendum period in UK and EA, respectively.

Brexit a sytuacja ekonomiczna Wielkiej Brytanii

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie wpływu wyniku referendum z 23 czerwca 2016 r. dotyczącego wyjścia Wielkiej Brytanii z Unii Europejskiej na stan gospodarki i finansów tego kraju. Publikacja zawiera przegląd światowej literatury i prasy ekonomicznej odnoszących się do kwestii następstw decyzji Brytyjczyków o opuszczeniu struktur unijnych. W artykule przedstawiono, że wynik referendum przyczynił się do wystąpienia rekordowych poziomów indeksu niepewności polityki gospodarczej (EPU) w Wielkiej Brytanii. Wysoki poziom niepewności ekonomicznej i finansowej wywarł w konsekwencji negatywny wpływ na kondycję brytyjskiej gospodarki. W artykule pokazano wpływ wyniku referendum na wartość brytyjskiej waluty, poziom podstawowych wskaźników makroekonomicznych, poziom aktywności gospodarczej w sektorze wytwórczym oraz sferę finansów publicznych. Kurs funta szterlinga w odniesieniu do dolara amerykańskiego i euro uległ silnej deprecjacji i spadł poniżej poziomów osiąganych w trakcie ataku spekulacyjnego przeprowadzonego przez George’a Sorosa w 1992 r., inwazji na Irak w 2003 r., czy kryzysu finansowego w latach 2008–2009. Wynik referendum można łączyć ze wzrostem inflacji oraz spadkiem tempa wzrostu PKB. Wielka Brytania zdecydowała się na wprowadzenie bardziej ekspansywnej polityki monetarnej poprzez obniżenie poziomu bazowej stopy oraz rozszerzenie programu luzowania ilościowego. Poziom aktywności gospodarczej w sektorze wytwórczym uległ krótkookresowemu obniżeniu w konsekwencji wyniku referendum. Perspektywa Brexitu miała również negatywny wpływ na stan brytyjskich finansów publicznych. Wysokość prognozowanego ujemnego salda finansów publicznych w 2017 r. wzrosła o ponad 30 proc., a minister finansów zmuszony był odstąpić od realizacji ambitnego celu eliminacji deficytu budżetowego do roku fiskalnego 2019–2020.

The EU Referendum in Northern Ireland: Closing Borders, Re-Opening Border Debates

The UK decision to leave the European Union (EU) following a referendum in June 2016 fundamentally alters the country’s relationship with the EU, with its European neighbours, with the rest of the world and potentially with its own constituent units. It is clear that different parts of the UK will be impacted differently by this decision and by the unfolding exit terms and process. In this context, Northern Ireland is considered to be particularly vulnerable. This article examines the referendum campaign in Northern Ireland by detailing input from the Northern Ireland administration, political parties, civil society and external figures. The article suggests that the overall referendum campaign in Northern Ireland was hamstrung by the opposing positions taken by key political protagonists, particularly Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This produced a challenging context for the referendum debate in Northern Ireland. The post-referendum period has also been marked by persistent differences in relation to how best to approach specific Northern Ireland issues and challenges. A continued absence of clear positions and a lack of contingency planning underline a poor level of preparedness for future political developments.

Redefining welfare in Scotland – with or without women?

The combination of the impact of welfare reform by the UK government and the opportunity for change presented by the debate on Scottish independence produced a profusion of alternative proposals for social security from scholars, formal political parties, the Scottish Government, and a range of think tanks and civil society organisations. The extent to which these proposals demonstrated considered gender analysis or specific objectives to address economic and social constraints principally experienced by women and arising from the constraints of gender relations varied considerably. This article considers the extent to which concerns for alternative approaches to social security policy reflect a political commitment to women’s economic and social well-being in a future Scotland through an analysis of proposals from key policy documents prior to the referendum and the proposals emerging in the post-referendum period.

The spread of coproduction: How the concept reached the northernmost city in the UK

Over the last years, engagement with politics in Scotland has increased significantly through involvement in the campaigns or party membership following the post-referendum period and the Leaders Debate in 2015. Recent general elections in the UK have shown that Scotland “voted for change” as they have become the third largest party in the House of Commons. Nevertheless, the cuts in public spending still remain as the major challenges for the Scottish Government. In the aftermath of the Christie Commission, there has been an increasing interest in the concept of coproduction in Scotland to overcome some of those challenges in public services. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, it explores how coproduction has become embedded in the Scottish context. Secondly, it uses Aberdeen as a case study and investigates how Aberdeen City Council has adopted this concept in its approach. The paper argues that coproduction needs a more critical perspective in managerial approaches to public services so that it can be a matter of democracy rather than administration.

Quebec and Asia: Lessons of Japan-Quebec Relations in the Post-Referendum Period

Introduction The current Government of Quebec declares that, except for the Francophone dimension and the dimension of solidarity, the interests of Quebec in bilateral relations with Asia and the Pacific are of an essentially economic and commercial nature. (1) Although it is not possible to establish the general features of bilateral relations between Quebec and Asian countries, Quebec has maintained the perception that Asia has an extremely promising economic potential whose mass consumption offers a substantial contribution to the world economy. The major concerns of Quebec with Asia include the participation of China in the World Trade Organization, the recovery of the South Korean economy, the expansion of economic trade and investment, and cultural and educational cooperation at multifaceted levels with Japan in full restructuring. The Government of Quebec regards Japan and China as its two principal partners in Asia. Historically, the first contacts of the Quebecois with these countries date back to the second half of the nineteenth century. According to the record of the Ministere des Relations Internationales of Quebec, along with the massive immigration of Chinese employed in the transcontinental railways, the first immigrants from China settled in Montreal in 1877. Escaping starvation wages in the west of Canada, Chinese workers principally of Canton origin settled down to form Chinatowns in Quebec. The arrival of two Franciscan Missionaries of Marie in China in 1902 was the beginning of the presence of the Quebecois in the Chinese Imperial Continent. The Chinese Communist revolution in 1949 provoked a massive retreat of the Quebecois missionaries from China to Canada, and to Japan and other countries in Asia. In October 1898, Marie-Helene Paradis, Sister of the Franciscan Missionaries of Marie who arrived at Nagasaki and settled in Kumamoto, marked the first presence of Quebecois in Japan. (2) She was the precursor of the many Quebecois missionaries who contributed to the propagation of Christianity as well as the reform and development of socioeconomic and educational institutions in the modern era in Japan facing the need for opening up the country. Since then, the Quebecois missionaries maintained a presence in Japan even during the Second World War and increased to four hundred until the 1970s when there was virtually no laity from Quebec. It was not until 1992 that the number of nonmissionaries equaled that of the missionaries and that economic considerations became prevailing in the bilateral relations between Japan and Quebec. The Quebecois missionaries established fifty-seven missionary schools at the first and secondary levels and kindergartens throughout the country, many of which served to provide useful members for the leading strata of modern Japanese society. (3) The missionaries also provided Japan with a model of development of local public and private social institutions in the fields of health and medical care, as well as humanitarian assistance for the most deprived and weak of the society, such as lepers and orphans. Their contributions to Japanese society left a spiritual vestige among Japanese people that would serve to identify the i mage of Quebec and Canada as distinct from other western nations such as the U.S.A and European countries. Since 1960, Quebec's foreign policy has been the affirmation of its national identity in international relations. Throughout the period until the Referendum 1995, Quebec alternated two approaches to cooperate with Japan, depending on the tendency of the political party in power: one with the opening of Quebec's economy coupled with sovereignist assertion, and the other with rapprochement confined to economic and technological relations. The governments of Rend Levesque and Jacques Parizeau represented the former, while the government of Robert Bourassa the latter. …

The Political Economy of the Food Crisis in Nepal

The National Panchayat of Nepal spent hardly any time discussing or debating national economic problems during the years 1961-79. The reasons are obvious. There was no direct election to the national assembly and hence no obligation to go to the people. The Cabinet members were all nominated by the king and were jointly accountable to him. The National Panchayat could neither elect its members to the government nor pass a motion of no confidence. Its sessions were held strictly in camera and the media were fully censored and controlled by the government. More important, the ideological and institutional base of the panchayat system was geared to denouncing the activities of the opposition forces, mainly of the Nepali Congress, which had been in power in the parliamentary days in the late fifties and had vowed to restore a fullfledged multiparty system of government in Nepal. The whole government machinery and resources of the panchayat system were used to check the activities of the opposition forces, hence development issues were given little political priority. The announcement of a national referendum on May 24, 1979, and the introduction of three democratic elements in the constitution made it difficult for the panchas (political workers) to ignore national economic problems. It also brought about internal conflict and functional contradictions within the partyless panchayat system. Political chicanery, sophistry, and group conflict between those in the government and those outside produced a serious dilemma regarding the functioning of the panchayat system, particularly in the post-referendum period. One of the very first issues to be hotly debated was the food crisis that had hit the country seriously in the early 1980s. This article examines the political and economic aspects of this food crisis, which was one of the major instruments

How to get Europe moving again

In 1984, the interlocking set of problems that had beset the European Community for so long and combined to threaten so many of the high hopes of the post-referendum period were, at last, either resolved or at least eased by the laying down of guidelines for their resolution. I refer, of course, to the settlement of the British contribution to the Community budget, the imposition of milk quotas (the first really serious attempt to tackle the problem of agricultural surpluses), the introduction of a new approach to budgetary discipline, and the agreement on extending the Community's financial 'own resources -which has yet to be ratified by national parliaments. The consequence of all this is that Britain has been released from the cage in which it had been imprisoned by the contribution dispute, and the Community as a whole has been freed to devote its energies to new challenges. The negotiations on the enlargement of the Community to include Spain and Portugal were also brought to their final stages in 1984, and have now been completed. When they enter, a process which began in 1961 with Britain's first application to join the Community will have been brought to a conclusion. (it is hard to see any other applicants on the horizon at present.) It is difficult to overestimate the disruption to the running of the Community that has been caused by the continued need to prepare for enlargement negotiations, engage in them and adjust to their consequences-and, in recent years, to do all three at once. This is therefore an important moment for the Community. Whatever problems the adjustment stage with Spain and Portugal may bring, the Community is on the verge for the first time in twenty-five years of being able to look forward to a period of stable membership. It is against such a background that there has recently been a burst of rhetoric from a number of capitals and in the European Parliament about European union and the need to take a new step in that direction. Heads of government have made speeches, committees have been set up, resolutions have been passed and there is much talk of a new treaty. Whether or not that particular idea comes to fruition-and it would be a mistake to see it in black-and-white terms-there is a sense of movement in the air. One has the feeling of ice breaking up and spring approaching. The words 'European union' create a good deal of difficulty in the English language. They sound clear and firm, like 'United Kingdom' or 'United States', and are often taken to convey the same sort of meaning. In other languages and cultures they imply something less precise, more compatible with separate national identities. In English the concepts of European union and the continued existence of the nation state seem by definition to be incompatible with each other. Elsewhere, that is by no means necessarily the case. To some, European union does represent an ambition to replace the nation state, but to most the two are complementary concepts. The nation state and