post-Kyoto Period Research Articles

Do we Need a Sustainable Development or Do We Have To Avoid a Sustainable Degrowth

Rentier and infra-rentier countries are more likely to overexploit their natural resources, which creates unfair growth (as long as we deprive future generations of their future endowments in terms of natural resources). This article reflects on the notion of “sustainable degrowth” by trying to situate it between economic growth and sustainable development. Our econometric study has allowed us to conclude that until then, the most prominent model is the pollutant. However, in the post-Kyoto period, 17 countries (from a sample of 33 countries) began to conceive growth that is less polluting.

TRAGEDY OF CLIMATE AGREEMENTS IN POST-KYOTO PHASE: COPENHAGEN AND BEYOND

Climate change is a global environmental problem that is caused due to human-induced increasing levels of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). The consequences of climate change are so severe that no country is immune from it. The problem of climate change has created a profound dilemma. There is no global treaty on climate change that can effectively reduce GHGs emission, fix the responsibilities and recompense damages caused to the environment. However, the contentious issue is: To what extent the developed countries should assist the poor countries in meeting the cost of adaptation? The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has emphasized on assisting poor and the most vulnerable developing countries. During the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, various countries adopted Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to stabilize their emissions of the GHGs. The key intention behind this collective action was to limit the level of temperature below 2oC over pre-industrial level in coming years. But mere pledges are not enough. In fact, more effective measures are needed to cope with rising global temperature. Moreover, significant changes are required in existing climate change policies and programmes. The United Nations (UN) emphasized the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility at the Kyoto, Bali, and Copenhagen conferences but the biggest contributors have refused to accept and abide by this principle. At the same time, things are not quite simple as limitation on CO2 mean limitations on economic growth. This has made climate negotiations a very contentious political issue as a result of which the very object of the UN to limit GHG emissions have turned into a tug of war. There is no serious political will to support climate change endeavours. Hundreds of measures have been negotiated in this direction, yet, most of these face problem of implementation. We should act efficiently and quickly to adapt to adverse consequences as projected by the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effective mitigation measures must be taken, worldwide, to tackle climate change urgently. The time is running out. The climate change is the greatest challenge that requires immediate solution. The present paper critically analyses progress made in the field of climate change in the post-Kyoto period and provides to what extent treaties, like, Copenhagen Accord has been successful in dealing with climate change. The work of paper is primarily based on analytical and empirical approach. The significance of the study lies in the fact that climate change is a burning phenomena that the world community facing today. In fact, its solution is required. In this paper authors argue that no country in an isolated manner can cope with the problem of climatic change. In fact, global efforts based on cooperation of all states are very important.

Why does the United States lack a global warming policy? The corporate inner circle versus public interest sector elites

ABSTRACTWhy has the United States not adopted global warming policies? Because the inner circle of the corporate elite has opposed these policies despite some corporate support for cap-and-trade and other policies. Pro- and anti-positions taken by think tanks that have led the policy debate in the post-Kyoto period are analyzed in order to demonstrate this. The corporate and upper class social ties of the directors of these pro- and anti-think tanks are examined, revealing a corporate elite split between the inner circle opposing these policies, and a ‘public interest sector’ of corporate law and media corporations along with top executives from higher education and other nonprofits that is supportive of policies addressing global warming. To enable adoption of major global warming policies, the corporate inner circle will need to become supportive and forge a class-wide corporate consensus on the need to address global warming.

Estrutura tecnológica e mudanças climáticas no Brasil: um estudo exploratório a partir de estatísticas de patentes

Este artigo analisa a evolução da estrutura tecnológica brasileira em áreas com potencial de mitigação de mudanças climáticas no período pós-Kyoto. A partir da constituição de uma base de dados original com patentes relacionadas às mudanças climáticas, propõe-se interpretar as transformações ocorridas na estrutura da especialização tecnológica do Brasil, bem como a evolução do seu desempenho em comparação a países selecionados. Os resultados da estimação de vantagens tecnológicas relativas mostram que o Brasil não acompanhou a dinâmica internacional e reduziu seu número absoluto de áreas com especialização tecnológica. A aplicação do método de decomposição estrutural revelou que o aumento da sua participação internacional é explicado, em sua maior parte, pelo efeito technology share, ou seja, a parte do crescimento que se deve ao dinamismo da sua atividade patenteadora. Nesse sentido, o país foi capaz de abandonar áreas estagnadas e os resultados seriam ainda mais favoráveis se contasse com uma melhor estrutura de especialização no período inicial.

Which factors drive CO2 emissions in EU-15? Decomposition and innovative accounting

This study breaks down carbon emissions into six effects within the 15 European Union countries group (EU-15) and analyses their evolution in four distinct periods: 1995–2000 (before European directive 2001/77/EC), 2001–2004 (after European directive 2001/77/EC and before Kyoto), 2005–2007 (after Kyoto implementation), and 2008–2010 (after Kyoto first stage), to determine which of them had more impact in the intensity of emissions. The complete decomposition technique was used to examine the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its components: carbon intensity (CI effect); changes in fossil fuels consumption towards total energy consumption (EM effect); changes in energy intensity effect (EG effect); the average renewable capacity productivity (GC effect); the change in capacity of renewable energy per capita (CP effect); and the change in population (P effect). It is shown that in the post Kyoto period there is an even greater differential in the negative changes in CO2 emissions, which were caused by the negative contribution of the intensity variations of the effects EM, GC, CP and P that exceeded the positive changes occurred in CI and EG effects. It is also important to stress the fluctuations in CO2 variations before and after Kyoto, turning positive changes to negative changes, especially in France, Italy and Spain, revealing the presence of heterogeneity. Moreover, the positive effect of renewable capacity per capita and the negative effect of renewable capacity productivity are the main factors influencing the reduction in CO2 emissions during the Kyoto first stage. It is possible to infer from the results that one of the ways to reduce emissions intensity will be by increasing the renewable capacity and the productivity in energy generation and consequently through the reduction of the share of the consumption of fossil fuels.

Technological contribution of MNEs to the growth of energy-greentech sector in the early post-Kyoto period

We consider the commitment of large firms with high R&D investments to the development of technologies of climate change mitigation related to the production or storage of energy. We analyze such climate change mitigation technologies focused on energy production and storage (energy CCMT) across the globe with the aim of assessing whether the Kyoto Protocol fosters the diffusion of inventive activity in energy greentech. Using patents as the key dataset, we give an empirical description of the corporate patenting activity and assess its contribution to the overall energy CCMT inventions across countries and sectors of energy greentech before and after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol (1997). Our observations indicate that climate change issues and greentech development have not been prioritized to the same extent by firms of western countries as opposed to, for example, Japanese firms in the beginning of the 2000s. However, we witness a growing commitment in most of the western countries. US large firms were more prone to gain skills in renewable energy technologies than most of their European counterparts, which continue to heavily invest in traditional energies such as Nuclear energy and Combustion.

A comparative analysis of global stakeholders’ perceptions of the governance quality of the clean development mechanism (CDM) and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+)

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the nascent solution of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) are two global market-based mechanisms that link developed and developing countries. This paper provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis of global-level stakeholders’ perceptions regarding the governance of the CDM focusing on environmental, social, economic, governmental and institutional participants. The research conducted was by means of an anonymous online survey using an analytical approach based on principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I). It compares these findings with the results of a similar survey conducted by the authors on REDD+. Stakeholders from both developed countries and the developing countries were asked to rate the quality of these mechanisms against 11 performance indicators using a Likert scale (1–5). Overall, the results of CDM stakeholders from both developed and developing countries were very similar, indicating a common perception. The highest and lowest total scores were obtained from institutional and social stakeholders, respectively, demonstrating that these two groups have considerable differences in perceptions from other interests. CDM failed two indicators, ‘equality’ and ‘resources’, and passed all other nine indicators only marginally. The performance of REDD+ was much higher than CDM in all aspects of governance surveyed. The major differences were in ‘equality’ and ‘problem solving’, followed by ‘transparency’ and ‘democracy’. If the CDM is to continue in the post-Kyoto period, some major systemic changes in governance are necessary. Here, there are some lessons to be learnt from REDD+.

Carbon market and global climate governance: limitations and challenges

Climate change has been a challenge to international diplomacy and to global climate governance (GCG) involving governments, companies and civil society. This paper discusses the limitations and challenges of the global carbon market as a mechanism of GCG and its role in the post–Kyoto period. This study is part of an interdisciplinary and multi–institutional research about GCG and carbon market and it is based on a deep literature review of national and international academic publications, as well as institutional documents from the United Nations international panel on climate changes (IPCC) and UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC). The findings reveal the limitations and challenges of the carbon market as a GCG mechanism to face the climate change. It defends the necessity of developing countries to strengthen their national and sub–national regulations in direction to a low carbon economy.

Analysis of China's Production- and Consumption-Based CO2Emission Inventories

Abstract: China, as the biggest GHG emitter and the largest developing country, has been urged by international society to take responsibilities for reducing GHG, especially in the post-Kyoto commitment period. Currently, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) assigns the responsibility to parties who produce the pollution, using the production-based GHG emissions inventories. In this article, we analyze the difference between China's production- and consumption-based emission inventories and conclude that consumption-based GHG emission inventories are preferred; as it is fair that whoever consumes the emission should pay for their consumption. In addition, in order to consider environmental justice, policy-makers should take both economic and administrative measures to support poor provinces for reducing CO2 emissions.

Economic impact assessment of Turkey's post-Kyoto vision on emission trading

For the post-Kyoto period, Turkey strongly emphasizes the establishment of national emission trading system by 2015 and its integration with the EU ETS along its accession process to the EU. In this paper, we study the mechanisms of adjustment and economic welfare consequences of various ETS regimes that Turkey considers to apply by 2020, i.e. regional ETS and international trading within the EU ETS. We conduct our analysis under the current EU 20–20–20 emission target, 20%, and also under its revised version, 30%. We find that Turkey has economic gains from linking with the EU ETS under the 20% cap, in comparison to the domestic ETSs. Despite the EU's welfare loss under linkage in comparison to the case where Turkey has domestic abatement efforts, it still prefers linking as it increases economic well being compared to the case where Turkey does not abate. Under 30% cutback, Turkey has critical output loss under linkage due to high abatement burden on the EU, while the EU is better off as it passes some of its abatement burden to Turkey. Therefore, emission quotas and their allocation across the ETS and non ETS sectors become highly critical in distributing the overall economic gains from bilateral trading.

The climate challenge for the energy system

If dangerous and irreversible climatic events are to be avoided, global averagetemperature should not increase by more than 2 C above pre-industrial levels(European Parliament and the Council 2009). Meinshausen et al. (2009) show thatin order to achieve such a global target, a mitigation pathway has to limit globalemissions to about 70% below 1990 levels by 2050. There is thus a clear need forimmediate binding commitments on greenhouse gas emission reductions in the post-Kyoto period. While the Copenhagen accord (affirmed by COP 16 in Cancun)recognized the need for deep cuts in emissions, within the UNFCCC framework(UNFCCC 2009, 2010), it has so proved impossible to obtain agreement on bindingcommitments with respect to quantification of reduction levels.The lack of global consensus did not deter the EU from acting alone. In an effort toestablish binding commitments to emission reduction, the EU introduced a ‘‘climateand energy package’’ at the end of 2008 (European Commission 2008). The newlegislation obliges Austria and other EU member states to implement several policychanges. Thus:• The ‘‘EU climate and energy package’’ agreed upon in December 2008 by theCouncil and the EU parliament stipulates the implementation of comprehensiveenergy and climate goals for 2020. At the overall EU level, greenhouse gasemissions are to be reduced by 20% below the 1990 level, the share ofrenewables in final energy demand is to be raised to 20%, and energy efficiencyis to increase by 20% (this latter point may be viewed as redundant once theother two goals are reached). The specific goals for Austria stipulate an increase

CDM contribution to RES penetration in the power generation sector of China and India

The clean development mechanism (CDM) could play an important role in the power generation sector of developing countries and emerging economies by providing additional revenue to support the diffusion of renewable energy sources (RES). This paper investigates the contribution of the CDM to deployment of renewable electricity projects in China and India, and highlights the main potentialities and limitations of this mechanism for their support. The outcome of our analysis shows many differences and similarities in the way and scale of CDM projects for renewable electricity generation have been implemented in the two countries. In both cases, the CDM has made a contribution to greening investments in the power generation sector, which is still largely dominated by subcritical coal-fuelled power plants. Nonetheless, some major problems still remain and they are mainly related to the distribution of projects across different technologies and to the environmental integrity of the mechanism. In view of the likely revision of the CDM in the post-Kyoto period, we find that the differentiation of the credit generation rate of different project categories could bring some level of improvement without significantly altering the current system functionality.

Protocolo de Kioto y desarrollo sostenible

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement that aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared with 1990 levels during the commitment period (2008-2012). Developed countries with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to limit or reduce GHG emissions (Annex I Parties) must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, to help these countries meet their targets in a cost-effective way, the Kyoto Protocol introduced three market-based mechanisms, thereby creating what is now known as the “carbon market”. The so-called “flexible” mechanisms are: Emissions Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI). The CDM allows a country to implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries that can earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting Kyoto targets. The CDM stimulates both emission reductions and sustainable development through investment and technology transfer. Therefore, it is very important to analyze its contribution to both objectives. While the contribution of CDM to emission reductions at minimum cost seems positive, its contribution to sustainable development has been often relegated to the background. New mechanisms will replace or coexist with the CDM in the post Kyoto period (2013-2020), and it would be desirable that they could contribute to sustainable development and biodiversity conservation more effectively than the CDM.

Investing in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects in Brazil

The discussion about Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects has its roots in global warming and its consequences. CDM projects enable developed countries to offset the pollution generated by the acquisition of Certified Emission Reductions (CER), concerning the reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions in developing countries. The article discusses the CDM in a comprehensive manner, based on the opinion of experts, and investigates the future of this market from 2012, the post-Kyoto period. The main results show that the CDM follows the principles of Sustainable Development, focusing on the climate changes and the profitability of projects. It shows that Brazil has real possibilities to act in the CER market which is expected to consolidate in the post-Kyoto. Controversial issues as the future of post-Kyoto, nuclear power and especially the conservation of forests, through the generation of CER, remain undefined.

La strategia energia-clima europea nel contesto globale e le sue implicazioni per l'Italia

Energy-climate European strategy in the global framework and its implications for Italy - The article aims to analyze the implications for Italy’s of the European policy on and climate for the post-Kyoto period. Chap. 1 analyzes the and climate package adopted by the EU in June 2009, as a concrete step of the Community Strategy towards the COP 15. The article shows that the and climate package adopted before COP 15 implements two of the three unilateral targets announced in spring 2007 by the European council (reducing emissions by 20%, renewables to 20%), forgetting, however, an integrated package of measures coherent to the 20% savings target through efficiency policies. In Chap. 2 some basic features of the package have been analysed: the main strategic choices, the national objectives, the flexibility mechanisms (use of the CDM, flexible trajectories to 2020, extending the range of economic instruments and international cooperation) and the expected costs for Member States. Many incoherences have been highlighted, comprised unequal cost effects on the various EU richer countries (in terms of GDP per capita). In Chap. 3 summarizes the main implications of the EU package for Italy in terms of policies needed to implement the new rules. The benefits of innovation for European industry will depend on Italy’s ability to respond quickly to the challenge dictated by the energy package. A strong effort on efficiency policies is needed to comply with the formal GHG and renewable targets, if the maximization of social, economic and environmental opportunities is what the EU in willing for.

Charcoal Behaviour by Its Injection into the Modern Blast Furnace

Nowadays the use of charcoal in metallurgy is intimately linked to small blast furnaces in Brazil. Due to the challenge for CO2 mitigation, interest for charcoal use as a renewable energy source is rising. In the scope of European efforts to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions in the steel industry in the post-Kyoto period, the use of charcoal in cokemaking and ironmaking has been investigated. This paper presents results of an experimental study on charcoal behaviour under the blast furnace simulating conditions performed at the Department of Ferrous Metallurgy, RWTH Aachen University and at the National Centre for Metallurgical Investigations, Madrid. Conditions in the raceway and in the furnace shaft were simulated using thermo-analytical, laboratory and pilot facilities. Charcoal samples were produced in two furnaces for pyrolysis from different wood types at various carbonisation conditions. Furthermore technological and ecological assessment of blast furnace process when injecting different types of charcoal was performed using a mathematical model. All the experiments and calculations were also performed with reference mineral coals for injection. Conversion efficiency of all the tested charcoals is better or comparable with coals. Change in coke rate, furnace productivity and further operation parameters when replacing pulverised coal with charcoal depends on charcoal ash content and composition.

Vincoli europei e internazionali. Il rilancio della politica climatica dell'Unione Europea per il periodo post Kyoto

- The relation describes the European strategy on energy and climate under the UNFCCC process for the post Kyoto period (after 2012), by which on march 2007 the EU Council adopted general targets at 2020 for a 20%/30% emission reduction, 20% renewables and 20% energy saving. Furthermore it highlights the main features of the legislative proposals published by the European Commission (EC) to implement the strategy on the 23rd January 2008, soon after the Bali COP13 (so called "energy and climate package"). The package contains proposals to implement the 20% emission reduction through EU level defined caps in the ETS sectors and by national targets differentiation in the non-ETS sectors (respectively under the "ETS revision directive" and "Effort Sharing Decision") and a further directive proposal to implement the 20% target for renewables through national target differentiation as well. The burden sharing criteria applied by EC in the energy package proposals are based on GDP per capita and they do not consider any environmental efficiency criteria, such as carbon intensity or potential for renewable sources based on land availability. As the Impact Assessment produced by the Commission itself shows, the way the "solidariety criteria" has been applied produced estimated costs on GDP highly differentiated between Member States and non-coherent with the GDP per capita distribution. Nevertheless, these burden sharings have not been timely corrected by the EC to bring optimisation with GDP per capita rankings in the UE. In addition, the EC package does not contain legislative proposals aimed to implement the 20% energy saving target. Recent disclosure of information by EC consultants (NTUA - Primes Model) shows that the implicit energy saving potential of the proposed package is limited to 7%, thus far away from the announced 20%. Due to these lackings, the EC package and related burden sharings may not be considered coherent to the EU Council spring 2007 mandate. European Parliament or Council emendments aimed at a higher efficiency and fairness for the whole package are deemed necessary by the author, even if politically difficult to be introduced.Key words: Energy & climate package, GHGs, energy efficiency, renewable sources, European policy.

The ETS Reform and Carbon Leakage: Economic Analysis of the New ETS Directive

After recalling to which extent the inefficiencies emerged during the Emissions Trading Scheme past trading periods are related to its institutional framework, as defined by the Directive 87/2003/EC, this article focuses on the major provisions of the 2008 European Commission Proposal for a new ETS Directive. The aim of this article is to analyze if and how the Emissions Trading Scheme functioning will be improved during the post-Kyoto trading period (2013-2020). The article focuses on three variables. First, it analyzes the new procedure and criteria for setting the ETS cap. Then, it moves to analyze the new default allocation rule, which is auctioning, and the related risk of Carbon Leakage, discussing both the criteria to assess it and the measures to prevent it. Finally the article focuses on the procedure and criteria to divide the ETS cap among the trading sectors in an effective way. The paper concludes that, while the ETS cap setting reform has contributed to improve the ETS effectiveness by reducing market distortions, the same cannot be written in the case of the new allocation rule. Instead of improving the allocation transparency and granting higher rules harmonization, the EC has defined highly discretionary and inefficient criteria to assess the sectors' exposure to Carbon Leakage and the corresponding allocation rule, thus increasing distortions, uncertainty and non-homogeneity within the ETS. While in a theoretical closed economy auctioning is superior to grandfathering, the way auctioning is going to be implemented in the third ETS trading period is far from being the efficient and effective allocation rule described by the European Commission.

The Group of 77 in the international climate negotiations: recent developments and future directions

First, we describe and analyze the main set of G77 positions in the climate negotiations and the dynamics behind the emergence of these positions. While it is puzzling that the G77 has managed to maintain itself as a group in spite of internal differences along variables as prosperity, emissions and vulnerability to climate change, we claim that a core element behind this cohesion is that these countries share domestic governance problems as much as poverty and economic underdevelopment. Second, we discuss how recent trends of economic and political development in the third world influence the climate policy strategies of the G77 group in the future. The main factor here is the economicand social progress in states like China, India and Brazil, which separates them from the poorer and less powerful G77 states. Increasing heterogeneity along variables like governance, growth, and importance for the international economy is creating an increasing drive among the most successful G77 states towards bilateral agreements with industrialised powers. We do not foresee a departure from traditional G77 positions and membership by these states in the official climate negotiations or a departure from the Kyoto process, but an increasing reliance on bilateral agreements with industrialized countries that link considerations for energy security and the environment. The ability to gain these advantages without commitments may make these states less interested in adopting commitments for the post-Kyoto period. This is unfortunate for the LDCs and the AOSIS groups within the G77, who probably are most vulnerable to climate change.

European objectives in the post-Kyoto period and expectations for Venice

European objectives in the post-Kyoto period and expectations for Venice