Post-conflict Democratization Research Articles

Why didn’t we know this before? Challenging the Culture of the Transition through the concentration camp at Castuera

ABSTRACT In post-conflict democracies with a recent past of intrastate violence and social fracture, depictions of the nation’s history play a role in efforts toward reconciliation. Public institutions act as agents in constructing the narrative of the country’s traumatic past, thus controlling public display of trauma and determining what is deemed essential to remember and what is not. In the case of contemporary Spain, the politics of oblivion normalized during the Transition produced an absence of democratic memory in Spanish education. This contribution examines the pedagogical possibilities of Spanish concentration camps, namely the concentration camp at Castuera (Badajoz), where the Asociación Memorial Campo de Concentración de Castuera (AMECADEC) has been working on the implementation of educational visits and the development of didactic guides. As with many other Spanish concentration camps, Castuera displays a lack of architectural remains, which poses a challenge to the concept of “ruins”. The activities developed by AMECADEC propose an alternative articulation of pedagogy and trauma, based on the educational possibilities of ruins and their political and material absences. As such, these activities offer an example of how to engage the processes of symbolization and memory intervention needed to create new historical narratives about Spain’s current democracy, challenging the Culture of the Transition.

Political power sharing in post-conflict democracies: investigating effects on vertical and horizontal accountability

ABSTRACT While it may be necessary to secure elite buy-in to peaceful competition, the literature is pessimistic about the long-term effects of a power-sharing settlement on the quality of democracy. Designing institutions to guarantee political inclusion is commonly thought to undermine vertical and horizontal accountability by incentivizing rent-seeking over responsiveness to voters. This study employs data from the Varieties of Democracy project to test arguments about the pernicious institutional effects of political power-sharing settlements in post-conflict democracies, relying on a panel dataset of 28 conflict-prone states in Sub-Saharan Africa since the onset of democracy’s Third Wave (1990–2021). The analytical technique is a time-series linear regression distinguishing between upturns and downturns across a range of continuous measures of accountability. The results show that, in line with much of the literature, political power-sharing settlements are associated with increasing executive corruption and fewer improvements in the rule of law. However, none of the other proposed mechanisms linking political power sharing to poor accountability outcomes finds consistent or significant support in the cross-national sample. Overall, these findings suggest that the relatively undemocratic institutional concessions designed to resolve conflict may not pose the serious barrier to democratic deepening and consolidation as previously assumed.

Unreconciled accounts? Screen and performing arts in post-conflict Northern Ireland

ABSTRACT In any post-conflict society, the work of creating an effective framework for truth and reconciliation is fraught with challenges that those in power will often seek to manage and manipulate. In this article we explore the critical role of the arts within the discourse of political reconciliation in contemporary Northern Ireland. Taking contemporary theatre and screen culture as our case-studies, we assess the extent to which these modes of cultural production create alternative spaces for dialogue and reconciliation in a dysfunctional post-conflict democracy, where the responsibility of political institutions and elites is failing to adequately address the rights of victims and survivors.

Born out of civil wars: Are former rebel parties an organizationally distinct type of party?

In recent years, there has been a considerable amount of work on the transformation of formerly rebel groups into political parties. However, there is little work that examines the organizational types of parties that formerly armed groups become. Are these parties more likely to exhibit certain organizational characteristics when compared to other parties? This is an important question especially as scholars consider the role these former rebel parties play in the development of peace and democracy in post-civil war politics. Using data from Daly (2020) and Tuncel and Manning (2022) , as well as recently released data from V-Dem on political parties (Coppedge et al 2020) we find that former rebel parties are more clientelistic and personalistic than other parties, even compared to parties in countries where they compete. We suggest that these parties are unlikely to play a constructive role in post-conflict democratization.

Tactics of resistance and post-conflict judicial independence

Scholars have found that nonviolent resistance is more effective than violence at promoting post-campaign democratization. We explore whether this relationship extends to judicial systems, specifically. Courts have been shown to be important for promoting and protecting economic development and political rights, yet they have been largely ignored in quantitative studies of post-conflict democratization. We posit that leaders who hold power after domestic unrest will be more inclined to use independent courts as a mechanism to prevent future campaigns–but they do so primarily when fearing a significant mobilization threat and when expecting legal action to be an acceptable channel for dispute resolution by dissidents. As such, we anticipate that levels of judicial independence are higher following nonviolent campaigns as compared to violent conflicts. Using quantitative data from violent and nonviolent campaigns globally, we find that judicial independence is indeed higher in the aftermath of nonviolent, as compared to violent, resistance campaigns. Furthermore, a campaign’s outcome does not matter; post-conflict judicial independence appears to be associated with tactics, not dissident success.

What structures ex-combatants’ political participation? Exploring the dynamics of identification and groupness in rebel-to-party transformations

ABSTRACT Academic literature on post-conflict peace-building and democratisation has established the important relevance of rebel-to-party transformations on the one hand, and of the political engagement of individual former combatants on the other hand. Yet, little is known about the interrelation between these two dimensions. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap, by proposing a framework to scrutinise former rebel parties’ ways of mobilising their former combatants politically. Based on a review of theoretical and empirical literature, we suggest three broad mobilisation strategies: the employment of material incentives, control and coercion, and strategies to nurture a sense of identification or even groupness. Given that this last dimension is less tangible than the first two, we further explore and conceptually dissect it, by discussing – what we argue to be – three of its main inherent components: ideology, emotions and patronage. By doing so, we hope to conceptually guide and inform future empirical research on the topic.

Vicious Cycles: Candidate Selection, Vertical Accountability, and MPs’ Performance in Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone is a successful case of postconflict democratization, but citizens' trust in parliament is low. Using qualitative and quantitative data, this article examines the relationship between MPs and their constituencies. Given the fierceness of the competition at the level of party primaries, aspiring MPs make promises they cannot keep. Confronted with unrealistic expectations, they reduce their presence in the constituency to a minimum. As a result, dissatisfaction increases, and disappointing MPs are voted out of office. The high turnover rate weakens the institutional memory and law-making capacities of parliament, thus creating even more disillusionment. In the long run, the continuation of this cycle may break the links between voters and political representatives.

Disaggregating democracy aid to explain peaceful democratisation after civil wars

AbstractDemocratisation is hailed as a pathway to peace by some, yet, blamed for provoking renewed violence by others. Can democracy aid explain the effect of democratisation after civil war? Building upon findings that transitions to democracy are prone to violence, this article shows that external democracy aid can mitigate such negative effects. It is the first to disaggregate democracy aid and analyse its effect on peace after civil war. To this end, it uses a configurational approach and focuses on support for competition (for example, promoting free and fair elections), institutional constraints (for example, strengthening the judiciary), and cooperation (for example, facilitating reconciliation). Combining Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) with an illustrative case study on Liberia, it demonstrates that democracy aid can help to prevent recurrence during postconflict democratisation. Two pathways can explain peaceful democratisation: first, fostering ‘cooperative democratisation’ characterised by substantial support for cooperation in lower-risk contexts; and second, fostering ‘controlled competition’ by combining substantial support for institutional constraints and competition. Importantly, democracy support does not trigger renewed violence. These findings speak to the academic debate on the destabilising potential of democratisation processes after civil wars and inform policymakers designing postconflict support strategies.

Gender Disparities in Post-Conflict Societies: A Cross-National Analysis

ABSTRACT This article investigates the impacts of conflict, resolution, and post-conflict democracy on gender bias. Exploring this question poses two methodological concerns. The first regards selection bias in which countries experience conflict and its resolution. The study addresses this issue using a generalization of the Heckman procedure. The second is that post-conflict democracy is likely endogenous to the level of pre-conflict democracy. This issue is addressed using two-stage least squares. Results show that conflict unambiguously worsens gender outcomes with respect to secondary school enrollment, labor force participation, fertility, and parliamentary representation. However, it does not affect the gap in life expectancy. Conflict resolution improves gender outcomes significantly, but not always by a magnitude that restores pre-conflict levels of equality. Greater post-conflict democratization improves parliamentary representation of women and the gender gaps in life expectancy and secondary school enrollment. However, it worsens the gap in labor force participation. HIGHLIGHTS The study corrects selection bias in conflict and its resolution with a three-step procedure. It instruments for post-conflict democratization using legal origin and geography. Conflict worsens gender inequities in education, the labor force, and representation. Conflict resolution mitigates most conflict-induced inequities, but not fully. Democratization further improves equity in representation and schooling.

Higher education, post-conflict democratization and the legacies of authoritarian rule: The Tripoli University Programme for Rebuilding Libya

In this paper, the role of higher education in post-uprising Libya is analysed in terms of its relationship with transitional processes of democratization and civic development. It begins by contextualising the Libyan uprising within the optimism of the ‘Arab Spring’ transitions in the Middle East. Following this, the relationship between higher education and politics under the Qadhafi regime and in the immediate aftermath of its overthrow is discussed. A case-study of a programme designed to support Tripoli University in contributing towards democratisation will then be presented. The findings of the case-study will be reflected upon to offer a set of recommendations for international actors engaging in political and civic education in conflict-affected settings, in particular in the Middle East.

Post-conflict democratisation in Sierra Leone: the role of the parliament

ABSTRACT Rebuilding political legitimacy after civil war and state collapse is a challenging task. This paper looks at the role of the Parliament of Sierra Leone in this process. The analysis is concerned with two key areas: descriptive representation of the electorate to build inclusive politics, and elite reconciliation as a means of making democracy the only game in town. Based on data from a survey among Members of Parliament (MPs) and additional qualitative interviews, it will be shown that political representatives are predominantly male, elderly, and highly educated. Using Social Network Analysis, the paper will demonstrate that social similarities, family networks, and networks formed in educational institutions provide the social glue that form Sierra Leone's MPs into an interconnected national elite cutting across party alignments and ethnic origins. While elite integration is positive for democratization, the underrepresentation of women, youth, and the poor presents future challenges to political inclusion.

Media Autonomy in Cross-road in Post-Conflict Democracy of Nepal

Nepali media intend towards neutral projections of their institutional stance covering politics in a balanced way despite a long practiced political parallelism in the country. The media also project both dark and bright sides of Nepalese politics for strengthening democracy in post-conflict period of Nepal. This study has examined editorial contents covered by two leading Nepali newspapers: The Kathmandu Post daily and Nepali Times weekly, both published in English language.
 The focus of this research has been to examine the editorials appeared during election campaign of Constitution Assembly, 2008. The study has chosen two dominant framing concepts: thematic vs. episodic framing, in order to explore the phenomenon of media autonomy in the Nepalese context. The findings show a mixed result where the media appear more likely to an instrumentalized phenomenon while projecting government/political parties’ policies and decisions. Their issues and activities were framed thematically putting public issues in general context, and also detracting political issues from negative stereotyping in their institutional viewpoints. At the same time, media portray the issues and activities focusing on particular events and occurrences while framing political parties/governments and their leaders with negative attributes of conflict and personalization frame. It can be argued that some external forces such as increasing dispute among political actors and increasing volume of impunity against journalism could be the consequences of media’s less likely instrumentalized appearance to political forces.

The democracy dilemma. Aid, power-sharing governments, and post-conflict democratization

How does development aid shape democracy after civil conflicts? I argue that political aid conditionalities and the economic utility that recipient elites gain from office give rise to a rent-seeking/democracy dilemma: recipients can initiate democratic reforms but also risk uncertainty over office and rents. Or they can refuse to implement such reforms, but risk losing aid rents if donors reduce aid flows in response to failed democratic reforms. This dilemma is strongest in power-sharing cabinets. By granting rebel groups temporally limited access to the state budget, such cabinets intensify elites’ rent-seeking motives. Thus, aid-dependent power-sharing elites will hold cleaner elections, but also limit judicial independence and increase particularistic spending to simultaneously reap aid benefits and remain in power. I find statistical support for this argument using data on aid flows and power-sharing governments for all post-conflict states between 1990 and 2010.

Political parties matter: a research agenda on interactions among elites in post-conflict democracies

ABSTRACTThe literature has devoted considerable attention to the understanding of state institutions and rule of law in the processes of democratization. However, despite the crucial relevance of dynamic and repeated interactions between actors and institutions in non-homogenous post-conflict societies, most research lacks systematic analyses on the role of parliaments, parties and party systems after civil wars. While several studies have examined the effects of electoral systems or veto rights after power-sharing agreements, as well as the transformation of rebel groups into political parties in post-conflict societies, the development of parties within parliaments has been largely ignored. Therefore, by combining conflict studies, institutional design perspectives and peacebuilding approaches, this paper presents a research agenda on the overlooked role played by parliament as a crucial arena for a better analysis, in the long term, of power-sharing mechanisms and state-building, post-war political framing and narratives, ethnic outbidding and party modernization strategies.

Bridging the Capabilities–Expectations Gap: Lessons Learned from Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance to Liberia

ABSTRACTThe unfulfilled expectations of post-conflict democracy assistance are palpable and disconcerting. The backsliding of several post-conflict states from democracy to authoritarianism, or even to violent conflict, has prompted a serious revision of the merits of democracy assistance. The lack of engagement with the very values and assumptions attached to democracy assistance can precipitate a debilitating gap between what assistance is capable of accomplishing through its strategic instruments and what people and partner organizations expect and demand assistance to deliver in post-conflict countries. Positively, the practice of post-conflict democracy assistance is responding to these challenges, showing signs of maturity and sophistication. The case of Liberia demonstrates that enhanced financial resources, improved peacekeeping, a broader conception of democracy, and a more refined use of instruments can bridge the capabilities–expectations gap on critical themes. Gaps, however, remain, including the conflation of democracy building and peacebuilding, unrealistic expectations of the benefits of democracy aid, and the often-exaggerated importance that international organizations proclaim for their work. These gaps ought to be addressed as they may not only undermine the successes and credibility of peacebuilding, but also shatter the hopes of local citizens who believe that international involvement will help them achieve democracy and peace.

The Long-Term Electoral Legacies of Civil War in Young Democracies: Italy, 1946-1968

Are there long-term legacies of civil wars on the electoral geography of post-conflict democracies? We argue that parties derived from armed bands enjoy an organizational advantage in areas where they fought and won the war. Former combatants can create a strong local party organization that serves as a crucial mobilization tool for elections. Parties have strong incentives to institutionalize this organizational advantage and retain electoral strongholds over time. We test our theory on the case of Italy (1946-1968). Our findings indicate that, on average, the communist party managed to create a stronger organization in areas where its bands fought the resistance war against Nazi-Fascist forces—and left-wing parties had a better electoral performance in those areas in subsequent elections. A stronger party organization is correlated with a positive electoral performance for many years, while the direct effect of civil war on electoral patterns decays after few years.

Domestic elites and external actors in post-conflict democratisation: mapping interactions and their impact

Following the end of the Cold War, post-conflict democratisation has rarely occurred without a significant international involvement. This contribution argues that an explanation of the outcomes of post-conflict democratisation requires more than an examination of external actors, their mission mandates or their capabilities and deficiencies. In addition, there is a need to study domestic elites, their preferences and motivations, as well as their perceptions of and their reactions to external interference. Moreover, the patterns of external–internal interactions may explain the trajectory of state-building and democracy promotion efforts. These issues deserve more attention from both scholars and practitioners in the fields of peace- and state-building, democracy promotion, regime transition and elite research. Analyses of external actors and domestic elites in post-conflict democratisation should therefore address three principal issues: (1) the identification of relevant domestic elites in externally induced or monitored state-building and democratisation processes, (2) the dynamics of external–domestic interactions and (3) the impact of these interactions on the outcomes of post-conflict democratisation.

Lean models, complex realities: elite interactions in post-conflict democratisation at the local level

This article argues that accounting for the complexity of interaction in post-conflict democracy promotion is important to understand how interactions influence post-conflict democratisation. Using the case of democracy promotion in Kosovo, the article uncovers two aspects in interaction processes where accounting for complexity is particularly useful: domestic goals and actor constellations. Taking into account the variety of domestic goals helps to understand how democratic reforms are subverted by domestic elites for the sake of their own domestic agenda. Disentangling the complexity of actor constellations demonstrates that interaction dynamics are shaped by the leverage and the number of international actors involved in the negotiation. The article draws on fine-grained local-level data from Kosovo to illustrate the argument.

The dynamics of donor and domestic elite interaction in Mozambique: formal decentralisation and informal power structures

This paper analyses the interaction of domestic political elites and external donors against the backdrop of Mozambique’s decentralisation process. The empirical research at national and local levels supports the hypothesis that informal power structures influence the dynamics of this interaction. Consequently, this contributes to an outcome of externally induced democratisation different to what was intended by external actors. The decentralisation process has been utilised by ruling domestic elites for political purposes. Donors have rather focused on the technical side and ignored this informal dimension. By analysing the diverging objectives and perceptions of external and internal actors, as well as the instrumentalisation of formal democratic structures, it becomes clear, that the ‘informal has to be seen as normal’. At a theoretical level, the analysis contributes to elite-oriented approaches of post-conflict democratisation by adding ‘the informal’ as an additional factor for the dynamics of external-internal interaction. At a policy level, external actors need to take more into account informal power structures and their ambivalence for state-building and democratisation.

Safeguarding Democracy: Powersharing and Democratic Survival

Democracy is often fragile, especially in states recovering from civil conflict. To protect emerging democracies, many scholars and practitioners recommend political powersharing institutions, which aim to safeguard minority group interests. Yet there is little empirical research on whether powersharing promotes democratic survival, and some concern that it limits electoral accountability. To fill this gap, we differentiate between inclusive, dispersive, and constraining powersharing institutions and analyze their effects on democratic survival from 1975 to 2015 using a global dataset. We find sharp distinctions across types of powersharing and political context. Inclusive powersharing, such as ethnic quotas, promotes democratic survival only in post-conflict settings. In contrast, dispersive institutions such as federalism tend to destabilize post-conflict democracies. Only constraining powersharing consistently facilitates democratic survival regardless of recent conflict. Institution-builders and international organizations should therefore prioritize institutions that constrain leaders, including independent judiciaries, civilian control of the armed forces, and constitutional protections of individual and group rights.