post-Bretton Woods Era Research Articles

Editorial for the Special Issue of Comparative Economic Studies: 50 Years After the End of Bretton Woods—The Experiences of Small Open Economies

AbstractThis special issue of Comparative Economic Studies, commemorating fifty years since the end of the Bretton Woods system, examines the adjustment of small open economies to floating exchange rates and new monetary policy frameworks. Based on a workshop held at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute in June 2023, six papers analyse dimensions such as the evolution of monetary policy regimes, the impact of economic crises and the use of unconventional monetary policies in Canada, Israel, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. The findings highlight the benefits and limitations of inflation targeting, the challenges of global financial integration and the strategic responses of central banks to maintain stability and independence, providing policymakers with valuable insights into the complex dynamics of monetary policy in the post-Bretton Woods era.

Made in Frankfurt? The Monetary Policy of the Swiss National Bank Since 1973

The paper investigates the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the post-Bretton Woods era, shedding light on the dynamics between the SNB and the Bundesbank and its successor, the European Central Bank, respectively. Our econometric analysis shows a high degree of synchronisation between the SNB’s interest rate changes and the decisions made in Frankfurt. The results also suggest a strong tendency toward direct exchange rate targeting before 1999, which coincides with a period of lower demand shock synchronization. This finding is supported by our analysis of the minutes of the Governing Board of the SNB for the period between 1982 and 1993. The discussions and decisions of the board show that Swiss monetary policy was largely guided by policy rate changes of the Bundesbank. The SNB routinely set the policy rate below the policy rate of the Bundesbank to enforce an implicit exchange rate target.

Sovereign currency and long-term interest rates in advanced economies from 1879 to 2016

ABSTRACT This paper explores the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates under different international monetary systems from the perspective of monetary sovereignty. The findings of this paper confirm conventional accounts of financial crowding-out and the adverse impact of growing public debt on interest rates among countries under the classical Gold Standard period (1879–1913) and non-sovereign countries under the recent fiat system (1973–2016). By contrast, countries in the Bretton Woods era (1959–1970) and sovereign countries in the contemporary post-Bretton Woods era (1973–2016) do not exhibit such positive debt-interest rates relationships while still showing crowding-out but with much less magnitude. Overall, the results support the Modern Money Theory (MMT) view that the consequence of monetary sovereignty from 1879 to 2016 is to remove, or greatly attenuate, the impact of default risk, fiscal balance, and bond vigilantes on the interest rate.

Fiscal policy and the twin deficits: structural changes matter

AbstractThis paper empirically and theoretically investigates the relationship between budget balances and external balances, the so-called twin deficit hypothesis. Using the US post-World War II data, I estimate a time-varying structural vector autoregressive model to evaluate the effects of structural breaks on this relationship. The empirical results reveal that the relationship is significantly time varying: (1) an increase in government spending and the consequent budget deficits tend to cause trade deficits in the Bretton Woods era; (2) in contrast, an increase in government spending tends to induce trade surpluses in the post-Bretton Woods era; and (3) with the exceptions of the 1980s and 2010s, government spending shocks cause trade deficits under a floating exchange regime. Using the open economy New Keynesian model with rule-of-thumb consumers, I find that a shift in exchange rate regimes helps in understanding empirical results (1) and (2). Moreover, slowly adjusted taxes inform our comprehension of exceptions in the 1980s, whereas zero lower bound aids our explanation of exceptions in the 2010s.

The Dollar Exchange Rate, Adjustment to the Purchasing Power Parity, and the Interest Rate Differential

This study applies a Markov switching error correction model to describe the single most important real exchange rate (Deutsche mark versus US dollar) over the flexible exchange rates period from 1973 to 2004. We show an alternative way of modelling non-linear adjustment to the purchasing power parity (PPP) besides standard threshold models. The model merges the two possible sources of non-linearity by additionally allowing the probability of a mean-reverting regime to increase with the distance from PPP. The interest rate differential as an additional determinant of real exchange rate behaviour in a Markov switching framework is introduced in the model. The study finds that the real dollar exchange rate during the post-Bretton Woods era is well described by a Markov switching error correction model with (PPP) as long-run equilibrium. There is one mean reversion regime where PPP and the interest parity condition are valid. Contrary, the second regime is characterised by persistent mean aversion, where a regime switch does not become more likely with increasing distance from PPP. The unconditional half-life of shocks is about 1.5 years.

Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257 - 2019

We present a new database of banking-crisis interventions since the 13th century. The database includes 1886 interventions in 20 categories across 138 countries, covering interventions during all of the crises identified in the main banking-crisis chronologies, while also cataloguing a large number of interventions outside of those crises. The data show a gradual shift over the past centuries from the traditional interventions of a lender-of-last-resort, suspensions of convertibility, and bank holidays, towards a much more prominent role for capital injections and sweeping guarantees of bank liabilities. Furthermore, intervention frequencies and sizes suggest that the crisis problem in the financial sector has indeed reached an apex during the post-Bretton Woods era – but that such trends are part of a more deeply entrenched development that saw global intervention frequencies and sizes gradually rise since at least the late 17th century. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257-2019

We present a new database of banking-crisis interventions since the 13th century. The database includes 1886 interventions in 20 categories across 138 countries, covering interventions during all of the crises identified in the main banking-crisis chronologies, while also cataloguing a large number of interventions outside of those crises. The data show a gradual shift over the past centuries from the traditional interventions of a lender-of-last-resort, suspensions of convertibility, and bank holidays, towards a much more prominent role for capital injections and sweeping guarantees of bank liabilities. Furthermore, intervention frequencies and sizes suggest that the crisis problem in the financial sector has indeed reached an apex during the post-Bretton Woods era – but that such trends are part of a more deeply entrenched development that saw global intervention frequencies and sizes gradually rise since at least the late 17th century.

THE DECENTRALIZING INTERNATIONAL TRADE ARCHITECTURE: PERSPECTIVES FROM AND ROLE OF ASIA

Global economic governance is in flux. The centralized international trade architecture of the post-Bretton Woods era is decentralizing as new regional institutions are being established for various reasons. Decentralization per se is neither good nor bad. It depends on whether there is “healthy” competition and functional complementarity or “unhealthy” competition between global and new regional institutions. This paper has three objectives, to: (i) review the decentralization of the international trade architecture; (ii) identify the benefits and the risks of the decentralization process and its implications for the centrality of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and (iii) recommend policies for the WTO to manage the process. The paper argues that, so far, the benefits of new regional institutions and trade decentralization appear to have outweighed the risks, and as a result global economic governance may have improved. Looking ahead, the paper recommends a number of policy actions that the WTO should take to manage trade decentralization. The paper argues that Asian countries, especially those that are members of the G20, should play a greater role in lobbying and driving the needed reforms of the WTO. They should also seek to expedite the conclusion and ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and eventually institutionalize the complementarity between RCEP, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Marikana Massacre and the Unstable Geographies of Capital: Spatialising Financialisation

ABSTRACTOn the 16th of August 2012, a protracted strike at a platinum mine in Marikana culminated in the killing of 34 mineworkers by local security officers. As literature on the historical significance of this event in post-apartheid South Africa grows, the many socio-spatial legacies of apartheid become exposed. This article builds on these discussions and considers how financialisation in the post-Bretton Woods era has reworked historical tensions between labour, capital, and state regulation. Financial markets, their intermediaries and interests have become central to the articulation of value, with finance centres like Wall Street and London dominating evaluations of worth, profit, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, as the Marikana massacre made clear, these articulations go far beyond the cloistered markets and exchanges of New York and London. Instead, the articulation and circulation of value resembles the functioning of an infrastructural assemblage that brings together multiple geographies of power in uneven and unstable ways. During times of disruption, like the Marikana massacre, we are able to expose and challenge the unequal politics of power and opportunity this infrastructure creates and stabilise.

An empirical analysis for the US of the impact of federal budget deficits and the average effective personal income tax rate on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries

We investigate the impact of federal government budget deficits and federal personal income tax rates on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year US Treasury notes. Using autoregressive two-stage least squares estimations for the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the yield on these Treasury issues has been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit as a percent of GDP, both in the form of the total/unified deficit and the primary deficit, and also an increasing function of the average effective federal personal income tax rate. The estimation reveals that growth in the M2 money supply (relative to GDP) acts to reduce the real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries. Consequently, while a growing money supply can help to keep real interest rates on Treasury notes (and hence federal debt service costs) down, policymakers should be sensitive to the fact that both budget deficit increases and tax rate increases can elevate the real interest rate. JEL codes : E43, E62, H62

Presidential Cycles in the USA and the Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate: Evidence from Over Two Centuries

In this paper, we analyze the impact of the U.S. presidential cycles on the dollar relative to the British pound over the longest possible monthly period of 1791:01 to 2018:10, based on GJR (or threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)) model. The usage of over two centuries of data controls for sample selection bias, while a GJR model accommodates for omitted variable bias. We find that over the entire sample period, the Democratic regime has indeed depreciated the dollar relative to the pound. However, during the post Bretton Woods era, the depreciation of the dollar is not statistically significant under the Democratic presidents.

Impact of U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year treasury notes during the post-Bretton Woods (1972–2016) era

This exploratory empirical study adopts an open-economy loanable funds model to investigate the impact of post-Bretton Woods U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. Autoregressive, two stage least squares (AR/2SLS) estimation for the 1972–2016 study period reveals that the ex ante real interest rate yield on these notes has been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit (expressed as a percent of GDP). It follows that elevating the federal budget deficit appears to elevate the real cost of borrowing in the U.S. Given the implications of higher longer-term ex ante real interest rates on investment in new plant and equipment and other economic variables, this finding is one that responsible policy-makers should not overlook.

A NONLINEAR ANALYSIS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE–CONSUMPTION RELATIONSHIP

A variety of international macroeconomic models predict a relationship between the real exchange rate and consumption. The empirical evidence in favor of such a relationship is limited, the so-calledBackus and Smith puzzle. In this paper, we extend the analysis to allow for nonlinear dynamics and volatility changes across exchange rate regimes. Our findings suggest that long-run relationships in line with standard international business cycle models do exist for many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Further, Monte Carlo experiments illustrate that the nonlinear models can generate the Backus and Smith and the exchange rate disconnect puzzles. In this paper, we also contribute to the nonlinear real exchange rate literature by establishing a theoretical relationship between volatility and persistence. In accordance with the theoretical results, our empirical findings suggest that the increase in volatility in the post-Bretton Woods era is associated with relatively fast mean reversion of the real rate toward its equilibrium value.

The synchronization of credit cycles

Abstract This paper proposes a simple econometric procedure to test for the synchronization of credit cycles. Using a century of data for 14 advanced economies, we find that credit cycle synchronization dropped in the early 1920s from initially relatively high levels. Between the 1920s and the 1970s synchronization was overall low and concentrated within five, predominantly regional, clusters. However, synchronization has significantly increased in the post-Bretton Woods era and has become less associated with geographic proximity: Australia, Denmark, France, Italy, Japan, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the US form a single major credit cycle cluster since the 1970s. A smaller cluster is formed by Canada, the Netherlands, and Sweden, while the German credit cycle follows a distinct path. Using logistic regressions, we find that the synchronization of credit and business cycles go hand in hand. Our findings are especially relevant for the international coordination of macroprudential policy, as well as to spur and inform further analysis on credit cycle dynamics.

Is There an Economically and Socially Sustainable Solution Space for the 21st Century Economy?

The consensus economic policy framework that evolved in the post-Bretton Woods era and the model of globalization to which it gave rise are in crisis due to political blowback. The framework has guided the system into a solution space that features stagnant growth and persistent deflationary pressures (stag-deflation), financial excess and fragility, and waning business dynamism. Perhaps of most immediate importance for the framework’s own viability, it has caused or enabled a massive widening of income and wealth disparities (more so in some countries than in others). As a result, we have witnessed the erosion of the social contract that implicitly (a) offers individuals fair prospects for sharing the benefits that the framework generates in return for political and social buy-in and (b) provides for a fair sharing of the tax burden of providing the public goods that underpin the system. From a longer-term perspective, the model also failed to generate the collective action needed to arrest climate change and the mass extinction event that human industrialization has triggered, which is polarizing polities in a second dimension. The result is disruptive political change, a reaction against the technocratic “elites” who manage the framework, and a burgeoning crisis of sustainability. This paper explores the extent to which responsibility can be attributed to a failure to manage the impacts of trade and technological change and whether globalization has to be “dialled back” in some respects to enable a managed transition to an economically and socially sustainable solution space at minimum cost.

Financial market determinants of the real cost of funds to public corporations in the US

Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of a variety of financial market forces on the ex post real cost of funds to corporations, namely, the ex post real interest rate yield on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds in the USA. The study is couched within an open-economy loanable funds model, and it adopts annual data for the period 1973-2013, so that the results are current while being applicable only for the post-Bretton Woods era. The auto-regressive two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations reveal that the ex post real interest rate yield on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds in the USA was an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yields on six-month Treasury bills, seven-year Treasury notes, high-grade municipal bonds and the Moody’s BAA-rated corporate bonds, while being a decreasing function of the monetary base as a per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and net financial capital inflows as a per cent of GDP. Finally, additional estimates reveal that the higher the budget deficit as a per cent of GDP, the higher the ex post real interest rate on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds. Design/methodology/approach After developing an initial open-economy loanable funds model, the empirical dimension of the study involves auto-regressive, two-stage least squares and GMM estimates. The model is then expanded to include the federal budget deficit, and new AR/2SLS and GMM estimates are provided. Findings The AR/2SLS and GMM (generalized method of moments) estimations reveal that the ex post real interest rate yield on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds in the USA was an increasing function of the ex post real interest rate yields on six-month Treasury bills, seven-year Treasury notes, high-grade municipal bonds and the Moody’s BAA-rated corporate bonds, while being a decreasing function of the monetary base as a per cent of GDP and net financial capital inflows as a per cent of GDP. Finally, additional estimates reveal that the higher the budget deficit as a per cent of GDP, the higher the ex post real interest rate on AAA-rated long -term corporate bonds. Originality/value The author is unaware of a study that adopts this particular set of real interest rates along with net capital inflows and the monetary base as a per cent of GDP and net capital inflows. Also, the data run through 2013. There have been only studies of deficits and real interest rates in the past few years.

The International Monetary System and the Available International Policy Options for Emerging Countries

This paper discusses how the available international monetary policy options for emerging countries changed over time during the post-Bretton Woods era in view of the trilemma. Upon the liberalization of the emerging countries' capital account, emerging countries suffered from excess volatility and economic crisis. They piled up reserves to survive in the region of free international capital mobility, but further reserve accumulation might not be sustainable in the future. Preventing the negative consequences of highly volatile international capital flows by providing global liquidity properly will dictate the available policy combinations for emerging countries. A fundamental reform on the international monetary and global liquidity provision systems will assist emerging countries in coping with liberalized capital accounts. However, the implementation of such a reform will take a long time. In this case, properly developed financial safety nets may help emerging countries in the interim. Otherwise, emerging countries have no choice but to impose capital controls. Advanced countries should understand the emerging countries' options and strive with these countries to implement an international monetary system reform that can reflect the recent worldwide developments.Keywords: Post-Bretton Woods system, Capital controls, International monetary system, Reform, Financial safety nets, Trilemma, Emerging countries, International capital mobility, Reserve hoarding, Global liquidity provisionJEL Classification: F33, F38, F42, F55I. IntroductionMore than 40 years had passed since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Since then, the post-Bretton Woods system had faced various challenges. The imbalanced trade among the United States, Japan, and Germany led to the Plaza agreement. Many emerging countries suffered from economic crises after liberalizing their capital accounts. To prevent another economic crisis, these countries piled up huge amounts of foreign exchange reserves, and this action caused a big international controversy. The recent global financial crisis, which occurred with the global imbalances, generated debates on international monetary system reform.The international monetary system limits a set of available international monetary policy options for each country. The exchange rate was fixed under the Bretton Woods system, which prompted the need to limit the international capital mobility to obtain monetary autonomy in view of the trilemma. The available policy options for each country change along with the economic environment. If the capital account is liberalized under a fixed exchange rate system, each country has to give up its monetary autonomy in view of the Trilemma.The post-Bretton Woods system imposed new restrictions on each country's available policy options. Emerging countries experienced substantial changes in their economy and in their available policy options after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Moreover, as emerging countries grew fast, their economic actions started to affect other countries and the entire system.This study discusses how available international monetary policy options for emerging countries changed over time during the post-Bretton Woods era in view of the trilemma. The available policy options for emerging countries changed along with their economic environment, and this occurrence increased the need for the reform of the international monetary system. After summarizing the current progress in the international monetary system reform, this study suggests that the evolution of the international monetary system will have an important implication on the available policy options of emerging countries.Section II explains the trilemma and the post-Bretton Woods system. Section III discusses how the changes in the economic environments affected the available policy options for emerging countries. Section IV summarizes the current progress in the international monetary system reform. …

Which Fundamentals Drive Exchange Rates? A Cross‐Sectional Perspective

Standard present‐value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals. We test this key empirical prediction of present‐value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to 2009. Employing a variety of tests, we find that exchange rates have strong and significant predictive power for nominal fundamentals (inflation, money balances, nominal GDP), whereas predictability of real fundamentals and risk premia is much weaker and largely confined to the post–Bretton Woods era. Overall, we uncover ample evidence that future macrofundamentals drive current exchange rates.

Risk, external adjustment and capital flows

This paper studies the process of external adjustment. I develop an open economy model with endowment and preference shocks that can account for the empirical behavior of real exchange rates, interest rates and consumption in the U.S. and Europe. The model includes cross border holdings of bonds and equity, and financial frictions that impede international risk-sharing. I find that external adjustment following endowment shocks predominantly takes place via trade flows, consistent with the intertemporal approach to the current account. In contrast, preference shocks that change investors' risk aversion induce adjustment via the trade and valuation channels; where the latter includes the effects of unexpected capital gains and loss on existing cross border holdings and changes in the expected future return differentials between foreign assets and liabilities. The model estimates imply that the valuation channel of external adjustment is more important for the U.S. than the trade channel. Consistent with this implication, I show that forecasts of future return differentials contributed most to the volatility of the U.S. net foreign asset position in the post Bretton-Woods era.

Hot Money and External Adjustment

This paper studies the behavior of international capital flows driven by the portfolio reallocation decisions of international investors; so-called hot money. I develop an open economy model with endowment and preference shocks that can account for the empirical behavior of real exchange rates, interest rates and consumption in the U.S. and Europe. The model includes financial frictions that impede international risk-sharing and hot money flows driven by optimal portfolio reallocations. My analysis reveals that hot money flows are an economically insignificant part of the international adjustment process following standard (temporary) endowment shocks. In contrast, preference shocks that change investors’ risk aversion produce sizable hot money flows. These shocks also produce sizable variations in the expected return differentials on foreign assets and liabilities that allow for external adjustment via the valuation channel. Consistent with the model’s predictions, I show that forecasts of future return differentials contributed most to the volatility of the U.S. net foreign asset position in the post Bretton-Woods era. Together, these findings indicate that hot money flows are an integral and empirically important part of the external adjustment process.