Possible Sources Of Systematic Errors Research Articles

Impact of modelling galaxy redshift uncertainties on the gravitational-wave dark standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant

ABSTRACT Gravitational wave science is a new and rapidly expanding field of observational astronomy. Multimessenger observations of the binary neutron star merger GW170817 have provided some iconic results including the first gravitational-wave standard siren measurement of the Hubble constant, opening up a new way to probe cosmology. The majority of the compact binary sources observed in gravitational waves are, however, without bright electromagnetic counterparts. In these cases, one can fall back on the ‘dark standard siren’ approach to include information statistically from potential host galaxies. For such a measurement, we need to be cautious about all possible sources of systematic errors. In this paper, we begin to study the possible errors coming from the galaxy catalogue sector, and in particular, look into the effect of galaxy redshift uncertainties for the cases where these are photometry-based. We recalculate the dark standard siren Hubble constant using the latest third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3) events and associated galaxy catalogues, with different galaxy redshift uncertainty models, namely, the standard Gaussian, a modified Lorentzian, and no uncertainty at all. We find that not using redshift uncertainties at all can lead to a potential bias comparable with other potential systematic effects previously considered for the GWTC-3 H0 measurement (however still small compared to the overall statistical error in this measurement). The difference between different uncertainty models leads to small differences in the results for the current data; their impact is much smaller than the current statistical errors and other potential sources of systematic errors which have been considered in previous robustness studies.

Constraining the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and Dense Matter Equation of State with NICER. III. Model Description and Verification of Parameter Estimation Codes

Abstract We describe the X-ray pulse profile models we use and how we use them to analyze Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars to obtain information about the mass–radius relation of neutron stars and the equation of state of the dense matter in their cores. Here we detail our modeling of the observed profile of PSR J0030+0451 that we analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al. and describe a cross-verification of computations of the pulse profiles of a star with R/M 3, in case stars this compact need to be considered in future analyses. We also present our early cross-verification efforts of the parameter estimation procedures used by Miller et al. and Riley et al. by analyzing two distinct synthetic data sets. Both codes yielded credible regions in the mass–radius plane that are statistically consistent with one another, and both gave posterior distributions for model parameter values consistent with the values that were used to generate the data. We also summarize the additional tests of the parameter estimation procedure of Miller et al. that used synthetic pulse profiles and the NICER pulse profile of PSR J0030+0451. We then illustrate how the precision of mass and radius estimates depends on the pulsar’s spin rate and the size of its hot spot by analyzing four different synthetic pulse profiles. Finally, we assess possible sources of systematic error in the estimates made using this technique, some of which may warrant further investigation.

Elastic scattering and electronic excitation in positron interactions with neon

We report measurements of low energy positron scattering from neon, with the first measurements of absolute differential cross sections (DCSs) and of state-selective electronic excitation. These measurements are compared to calculations using the relativistic optical potential (ROP) technique, as well as other recently published theoretical calculations. At the lowest energies, experimental DCS data are fitted to extract scattering phase shifts, which can be compared to theoretical values and also used to generate DCS values over the full angular range. For the most part we find good accord in the two descriptions of the scattering processes, with some key disagreements. An analysis of possible sources of systematic error has also been presented, in light of the discrepancies.

Inferring the gravitational wave memory for binary coalescence events

Full, non-linear general relativity predicts a memory effect for gravitational waves. For compact binary coalescence, the total gravitational memory serves as an inferred observable, conceptually on the same footing as the mass and the spin of the final black hole. Given candidate waveforms for any LIGO event, then, one can calculate the posterior probability distribution functions for the total gravitational memory, and use them to compare and contrast the waveforms. In this paper we present these posterior distributions for the binary black hole merger events reported in the first Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-1), using the Phenomenological and Effective-One-Body waveforms. On the whole, the two sets of posterior distributions agree with each other quite well though we find larger discrepancies for the $\ell=2, m=1$ mode of the memory. This signals a possible source of systematic errors that was not captured by the posterior distributions of other inferred observables. Thus, the posterior distributions of various angular modes of total memory can serve as diagnostic tools to further improve the waveforms. Analyses such as this would be valuable especially for future events as the sensitivity of ground based detectors improves, and for LISA which could measure the total gravitational memory directly.

The Astrophysical Distance Scale. III. Distance to the Local Group Galaxy WLM Using Multiwavelength Observations of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch, Cepheids, and JAGB Stars

Abstract The local determination of the Hubble constant sits at a crossroad. Current estimates of the local expansion rate of the universe differ by about 1.7σ, derived from the Cepheid- and TRGB-based calibrations, applied to Type Ia supernovae. To help elucidate possible sources of systematic error causing the tension, we show in this study the recently developed distance indicator, the J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch (JAGB) method, can serve as an independent cross-check and comparison with other local distance indicators. Furthermore, we make the case that the JAGB method has substantial potential as an independent, precise, and accurate calibrator of Type Ia supernovae for the determination of H 0. Using the Local Group galaxy Wolf–Lundmark–Melotte (WLM), we present distance comparisons between the JAGB method, a TRGB measurement at near-infrared (JHK) wavelengths, a TRGB measurement in the optical I band, and a multiwavelength Cepheid period–luminosity relation determination. We find μ 0 ( JAGB ) = 24.97 ± 0.02 ( stat ) ± 0.04 ( sys ) mag μ 0 ( TRGB NIR ) = 24.98 ± 0.04 ( stat ) ± 0.07 ( sys ) mag μ 0 ( TRGB F 814 W ) = 24.93 ± 0.02 ( stat ) ± 0.06 ( sys ) mag μ 0 ( Cepheids ) = 24.98 ± 0.03 ( stat ) ± 0.04 ( sys ) mag . All four methods are in good agreement, confirming the local self-consistency of the four distance scales at the 3% level and adding confidence that the JAGB method is as accurate and as precise a distance indicator as either of the other three astrophysically based methods.

Reduction of gravity effect on the results of low-frequency accelerometer calibration

This paper describes a study on the possible sources of systematic errors during the calibration of accelerometers at low-frequencies. This study was carried out on a primary calibration system that uses an air-bearing vibration exciter APS Dynamics 129 and applying the sine-approximation method. Tests performed and actions taken to reduce the effect on experimental results are presented.

An insight into the present capabilities of national metrology institutes for measuring sparkle

Large-effect pigments, due to their strongly specular reflectance, produce a special visual texture known as sparkle. The use of these pigments in many industries (automotive, cosmetic, paper, architecture...) makes the control of this visual texture necessary. Sparkle measurands have been defined in this article, so that traceability of sparkle measurements can be provided by national metrology institutes or designated institutes. Some of them (Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Eidgenössisches Institut für Metrologie, Cesky Metrologicky Institut and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas) have tested their existing measurement capabilities for the defined sparkle measurands, and their results are presented and thoroughly compared. Two possible sources of systematic error have been identified: inadequate illumination and collection solid angles, and an inadequate size of the virtual aperture used to assess the luminous flux reflected by the effect pigments. Finally, it has been shown that the measures correlate excellently with the sparkle visual data. The results shown in this research support the sparkle measurands defined here as adequate quantities for defining the standard measurement scale of sparkle claimed by industry.

Using variability and VLBI to measure cosmological distances

ABSTRACT In this paper, we propose a new approach to determining cosmological distances to active Galactic nuclei (AGNs) via light travel-time arguments, which can be extended from nearby sources to very high redshift sources. The key assumption is that the variability seen in AGNs is constrained by the speed of light and therefore provides an estimate of the linear size of an emitting region. This can then be compared with the angular size measured with very long baseline interferometryer to derive a distance. We demonstrate this approach on a specific well-studied low-redshift (z = 0.0178) source 3C 84 (NGC 1275), which is the bright radio core of the Perseus Cluster. We derive an angular diameter distance including statistical errors of $D_{\mathrm{ A}} = 72^{+5}_{-6}$ Mpc for this source, which is consistent with other distance measurements at this redshift. Possible sources of systematic errors and ways to correct for them are discussed.

Implications from Simulated Strong Gravitational Lensing Systems: Constraining Cosmological Parameters Using Gaussian Processes

Abstract Strong gravitational lensing systems (SGL) encode cosmology information in source/lens distance ratios as , which can be used to precisely constrain cosmological parameters. In this paper, based on future measurements of 390 strong-lensing systems from the forthcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) survey, we have successfully reconstructed the distance ratio (with the source redshift z s ∼ 4.0) directly from the data without assuming any parametric form. A recently developed method based on a model-independent reconstruction approach, Gaussian Processes, is used in our study of these strong-lensing systems. Our results show that independent measurement of the matter density parameter (Ω m ) can be expected from such strong-lensing statistics. More specifically, one can expect Ω m to be estimated at the precision of ΔΩ m ∼ 0.015 in the concordance ΛCDM model, which provides comparable constraints on Ω m with Planck 2015 results. In the framework of modified gravity theory (Dvali–Gabadadze–Porrati), 390 detectable galactic lenses from the future LSST survey can lead to stringent fits of ΔΩ m ∼ 0.030. Finally, we have discussed three possible sources of systematic errors (sample incompleteness, the determination of length of lens redshift bin, and the choice of lens redshift shells), and quantified their effects on the final cosmological constraints. Our results strongly indicate that future strong-lensing surveys, with the accumulation of a larger and more accurate sample of detectable galactic lenses, will considerably benefit from the methodology described in this analysis.

SHARP – VII. New constraints on the dark matter free-streaming properties and substructure abundance from gravitationally lensed quasars

ABSTRACT We present an analysis of seven strongly gravitationally lensed quasars and the corresponding constraints on the properties of dark matter. Our results are derived by modelling the lensed image positions and flux-ratios using a combination of smooth macro-models and a population of low-mass haloes within the mass range of 106–109 M⊙. Our lens models explicitly include higher order complexity in the form of stellar discs and luminous satellites, as well as low-mass haloes located along the observed lines of sight for the first time. Assuming a cold dark matter (CDM) cosmology, we infer an average total mass fraction in substructure of $f_{\rm sub} = 0.012^{+0.007}_{-0.004}$ (68 per cent confidence limits), which is in agreement with the predictions from CDM hydrodynamical simulations to within 1σ. This result is closer to the predictions than those from previous studies that did not include line-of-sight haloes. Under the assumption of a thermal relic dark matter model, we derive a lower limit on the particle relic mass of mth > 5.58 keV (95 per cent confidence limits), which is consistent with a value of mth > 5.3 keV from the recent analysis of the Ly α forest. We also identify two main sources of possible systematic errors and conclude that deeper investigations in the complex structure of lens galaxies as well as the size of the background sources should be a priority for this field.

First-excited state g factors in the stable, even Ge and Se isotopes

Transient-field $g$-factor measurements in inverse kinematics were performed for the first-excited states of the stable, even isotopes of Ge and Se. The $g$ factors of $^{74}\mathrm{Ge}$ and $^{74}\mathrm{Se}$ were measured simultaneously using a cocktail beam, which eliminates most possible sources of systematic error in a relative $g$-factor measurement. The results are $g(^{74}\mathrm{Se})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Ge})=1.34(7), g(^{70}\mathrm{Ge})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Ge})=1.16(15), g(^{72}\mathrm{Ge})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Ge})=0.92(13), g(^{76}\mathrm{Ge})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Ge})=0.88(5), g(^{76}\mathrm{Se})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Se})=0.96(7), g(^{78}\mathrm{Se})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Se})=0.82(5), g(^{80}\mathrm{Se})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Se})=0.99(7)$, and $g(^{82}\mathrm{Se})/g(^{74}\mathrm{Se})=1.19(6)$. The measured $g$-factor ratios are in agreement with ratios from previous measurements, despite considerable variation in previous reported absolute values. The absolute values of the $g$ factors remain uncertain, however, the Rutgers parametrization was used to set the transient-field strength and then compare the experimental $g$ factors with shell-model calculations based on the JUN45 and jj44b interactions. Modest agreement was found between experiment and theory for both interactions. The shell-model calculations indicate that the $g({2}_{1}^{+})$ values and trends are determined largely by the balance of the spin carried by orbital motion of the protons.

Hubble Space Telescope Trigonometric Parallax of Polaris B, Companion of the Nearest Cepheid*

Abstract Polaris, the nearest and brightest Cepheid, is a potential anchor point for the Leavitt period–luminosity relation. However, its distance is a matter of contention, with recent advocacy for a parallax of ∼10 mas, in contrast with the Hipparcos measurement of 7.54 ± 0.11 mas. We report an independent trigonometric parallax determination, using the Fine Guidance Sensors (FGS) on the Hubble Space Telescope. Polaris itself is too bright for FGS, so we measured its eighth-magnitude companion Polaris B, relative to a network of background reference stars. We converted the FGS relative parallax to absolute, using estimated distances to the reference stars from ground-based photometry and spectral classification. Our result, 6.26 ± 0.24 mas, is even smaller than that found by Hipparcos. We note other objects for which Hipparcos appears to have overestimated parallaxes, including the well-established case of the Pleiades. We consider possible sources of systematic error in the FGS parallax, but find no evidence they are significant. If our “long” distance is correct, the high luminosity of Polaris indicates that it is pulsating in the second overtone of its fundamental mode. Our results raise several puzzles, including a long pulsation period for Polaris compared to second-overtone pulsators in the Magellanic Clouds, and a conflict between the isochrone age of Polaris B (∼2.1 Gyr) and the much younger age of Polaris A. We discuss possibilities that B is not a physical companion of A, in spite of the strong evidence that it is, or that one of the stars is a merger remnant. These issues may be resolved when Gaia provides parallaxes for both stars.

Uncertainties in the solar photospheric oxygen abundance

The purpose of this work is to better understand the confidence limits of the photospheric solar oxygen abundance derived from three-dimensional models using the forbidden [OI] line at 6300 \AA , including correlations with other parameters involved. We worked with a three-dimensional empirical model and two solar intensity atlases. We employed Bayesian inference as a tool to determine the most probable value for the solar oxygen abundance given the model chosen. We considered a number of error sources, such as uncertainties in the continuum derivation, in the wavelength calibration and in the abundance/strength of Ni. Our results shows correlations between the effects of several parameters employed in the derivation. The Bayesian analysis provides robust confidence limits taking into account all of these factors in a rigorous manner. We obtain that, given the empirical three-dimensional model and the atlas observations employed here, the most probable value for the solar oxygen abundance is $\log(\epsilon_O) = 8.86\pm0.04$. However, we note that this uncertainty does not consider possible sources of systematic errors due to the model choice.

Spin flip loss in magnetic confinement of ultracold neutrons for neutron lifetime experiments

We analyze the spin flip loss for ultracold neutrons in magnetic bottles of the type used in experiments aiming at a precise measurement of the neutron lifetime, extending the one-dimensional field model used previously by Steyerl $\textit{et al.}$ [Phys.Rev.C $\mathbf{86}$, 065501 (2012)] to two dimensions for cylindrical multipole fields. We also develop a general analysis applicable to three dimensions. Here we apply it to multipole fields and to the bowl-type field configuration used for the Los Alamos UCN$\tau$ experiment. In all cases considered the spin flip loss calculated exceeds the Majorana estimate by many orders of magnitude but can be suppressed sufficiently by applying a holding field of appropriate magnitude to allow high-precision neutron lifetime measurements, provided other possible sources of systematic error are under control.

Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile

Abstract. Accurate representation of the real spatio-temporal variability of catchment rainfall inputs is currently severely limited. Moreover, spatially interpolated catchment precipitation is subject to large uncertainties, particularly in developing countries and regions which are difficult to access. Recently, satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) provide an unprecedented opportunity for a wide range of hydrological applications, from water resources modelling to monitoring of extreme events such as droughts and floods.This study attempts to exhaustively evaluate – for the first time – the suitability of seven state-of-the-art SRE products (TMPA 3B42v7, CHIRPSv2, CMORPH, PERSIANN-CDR, PERSIAN-CCS-Adj, MSWEPv1.1, and PGFv3) over the complex topography and diverse climatic gradients of Chile. Different temporal scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual) are used in a point-to-pixel comparison between precipitation time series measured at 366 stations (from sea level to 4600 m a.s.l. in the Andean Plateau) and the corresponding grid cell of each SRE (rescaled to a 0.25° grid if necessary). The modified Kling–Gupta efficiency was used to identify possible sources of systematic errors in each SRE. In addition, five categorical indices (PC, POD, FAR, ETS, fBIAS) were used to assess the ability of each SRE to correctly identify different precipitation intensities.Results revealed that most SRE products performed better for the humid South (36.4–43.7° S) and Central Chile (32.18–36.4° S), in particular at low- and mid-elevation zones (0–1000 m a.s.l.) compared to the arid northern regions and the Far South. Seasonally, all products performed best during the wet seasons (autumn and winter; MAM–JJA) compared to summer (DJF) and spring (SON). In addition, all SREs were able to correctly identify the occurrence of no-rain events, but they presented a low skill in classifying precipitation intensities during rainy days. Overall, PGFv3 exhibited the best performance everywhere and for all timescales, which can be clearly attributed to its bias-correction procedure using 217 stations from Chile. Good results were also obtained by the research products CHIRPSv2, TMPA 3B42v7 and MSWEPv1.1, while CMORPH, PERSIANN-CDR, and the real-time PERSIANN-CCS-Adj were less skillful in representing observed rainfall. While PGFv3 (currently available up to 2010) might be used in Chile for historical analyses and calibration of hydrological models, the high spatial resolution, low latency and long data records of CHIRPS and TMPA 3B42v7 (in transition to IMERG) show promising potential to be used in meteorological studies and water resource assessments. We finally conclude that despite improvements of most SRE products, a site-specific assessment is still needed before any use in catchment-scale hydrological studies.

Phylogenomics of Lophotrochozoa with Consideration of Systematic Error.

Phylogenomic studies have improved understanding of deep metazoan phylogeny and show promise for resolving incongruences among analyses based on limited numbers of loci. One region of the animal tree that has been especially difficult to resolve, even with phylogenomic approaches, is relationships within Lophotrochozoa (the animal clade that includes molluscs, annelids, and flatworms among others). Lack of resolution in phylogenomic analyses could be due to insufficient phylogenetic signal, limitations in taxon and/or gene sampling, or systematic error. Here, we investigated why lophotrochozoan phylogeny has been such a difficult question to answer by identifying and reducing sources of systematic error. We supplemented existing data with 32 new transcriptomes spanning the diversity of Lophotrochozoa and constructed a new set of Lophotrochozoa-specific core orthologs. Of these, 638 orthologous groups (OGs) passed strict screening for paralogy using a tree-based approach. In order to reduce possible sources of systematic error, we calculated branch-length heterogeneity, evolutionary rate, percent missing data, compositional bias, and saturation for each OG and analyzed increasingly stricter subsets of only the most stringent (best) OGs for these five variables. Principal component analysis of the values for each factor examined for each OG revealed that compositional heterogeneity and average patristic distance contributed most to the variance observed along the first principal component while branch-length heterogeneity and, to a lesser extent, saturation contributed most to the variance observed along the second. Missing data did not strongly contribute to either. Additional sensitivity analyses examined effects of removing taxa with heterogeneous branch lengths, large amounts of missing data, and compositional heterogeneity. Although our analyses do not unambiguously resolve lophotrochozoan phylogeny, we advance the field by reducing the list of viable hypotheses. Moreover, our systematic approach for dissection of phylogenomic data can be applied to explore sources of incongruence and poor support in any phylogenomic data set. [Annelida; Brachiopoda; Bryozoa; Entoprocta; Mollusca; Nemertea; Phoronida; Platyzoa; Polyzoa; Spiralia; Trochozoa.].

EXPLORING SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS IN THE RELATION BETWEEN STELLAR MASS, GAS PHASE METALLICITY, AND STAR FORMATION RATE

ABSTRACT There is evidence that the well-established mass–metallicity relation in galaxies is correlated with a third parameter: star formation rate (SFR). The strength of this correlation may be used to disentangle the relative importance of different physical processes (e.g., infall of pristine gas, metal-enriched outflows) in governing chemical evolution. However, all three parameters are susceptible to biases that might affect the observed strength of the relation between them. We analyze possible sources of systematic error, including sample bias, application of signal-to-noise ratio cuts on emission lines, choice of metallicity calibration, uncertainty in stellar mass determination, aperture effects, and dust. We present the first analysis of the relation between stellar mass, gas phase metallicity, and SFR using strong line abundance diagnostics from Dopita et al. for ∼130,000 star-forming galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and provide a detailed comparison of these diagnostics in an appendix. Using these new abundance diagnostics yields a 30%–55% weaker anti-correlation between metallicity and SFR at fixed stellar mass than that reported by Mannucci et al. We find that, for all abundance diagnostics, the anti-correlation with SFR is stronger for the relatively few galaxies whose current SFRs are elevated above their past average SFRs. This is also true for the new abundance diagnostic of Dopita et al., which gives anti-correlation between Z and SFR only in the high specific star formation rate (sSFR) regime, in contrast to the recent results of Kashino et al. The poorly constrained strength of the relation between stellar mass, metallicity, and SFR must be carefully accounted for in theoretical studies of chemical evolution.

Optical diffraction for measurements of nano-mechanical bending.

We explore and exploit diffraction effects that have been previously neglected when modelling optical measurement techniques for the bending of micro-mechanical transducers such as cantilevers for atomic force microscopy. The illumination of a cantilever edge causes an asymmetric diffraction pattern at the photo-detector affecting the calibration of the measured signal in the popular optical beam deflection technique (OBDT). The conditions that avoid such detection artefacts conflict with the use of smaller cantilevers. Embracing diffraction patterns as data yields a potent detection technique that decouples tilt and curvature and simultaneously relaxes the requirements on the illumination alignment and detector position through a measurable which is invariant to translation and rotation. We show analytical results, numerical simulations and physiologically relevant experimental data demonstrating the utility of the diffraction patterns. We offer experimental design guidelines and quantify possible sources of systematic error in OBDT. We demonstrate a new nanometre resolution detection method that can replace OBDT, where diffraction effects from finite sized or patterned cantilevers are exploited. Such effects are readily generalized to cantilever arrays, and allow transmission detection of mechanical curvature, enabling instrumentation with simpler geometry. We highlight the comparative advantages over OBDT by detecting molecular activity of antibiotic Vancomycin.

Neutron electric dipole moment and possibilities of increasing accuracy of experiments

The paper reports the results of an experiment on searching for the neutron electric dipole moment (EDM), performed on the ILL reactor (Grenoble, France). The double-chamber magnetic resonance spectrometer (Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute (PNPI)) with prolonged holding of ultra cold neutrons has been used. Sources of possible systematic errors are analyzed, and their influence on the measurement results is estimated. The ways and prospects of increasing accuracy of the experiment are discussed.

Study of quark mass dependence of binding energy for light nuclei in2+1flavor lattice QCD

We investigate the formation of light nuclei with the nuclear mass number less than or equal to four in $2+1$ flavor QCD using a nonperturbative improved Wilson quark and Iwasaki gauge actions. The quark mass is decreased from our previous work to the one corresponding to the pion mass of 0.30 GeV. In each multinucleon channel, the energy shift of the ground state relative to the assembly of free nucleons is calculated on two volumes, whose spatial extents are 4.3 and 5.8 fm. From the volume dependence of the energy shift, we distinguish a bound state of multinucleons from an attractive scattering state. We find that all the ground states measured in this calculation are bound states. As in the previous studies at larger ${m}_{\ensuremath{\pi}}$, our result indicates that at ${m}_{\ensuremath{\pi}}=0.30\text{ }\text{ }\mathrm{GeV}$ the effective interaction between nucleons in the light nuclei is relatively stronger than the one in nature, since the results for the binding energies are larger than the experimental values and a bound state appears in the dineutron channel, which is not observed in experiment. Possible sources of systematic error in this calculation are discussed.