Positive Spatial Spillover Effect Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Urban Evolution Along the China–Laos Railway in Laos Determined Using Multiple Sources of Remote-Sensed Landscape Indicators and Interpretable Machine Learning

Constructing high-speed railways (HSRs) is critical for developing countries to stimulate economic growth and urbanization. This study focuses on the Lao section of the China–Laos Railway (CLR) and employs explicitly spatial remote sensing images to investigate the urban development surrounding HSR stations. Data-driven machine learning and causal inference approaches are integrated to quantify the spatial–temporal evolution and discover its driving factors. The results suggest that the CLR has had positive spatial spillover effects on the development of the surrounding urban space. These spillover effects have exhibited a distance attenuation pattern, reflecting obvious development in 2D rather than in 3D urban space. Meanwhile, the distance to stations and adjacent city centers as well as functional urban characteristics, such as land use patterns and industrialization level, have significantly influences the surrounding spatial development. Specifically, in industrial-dominated cities, the surrounding spatial changes have been most significant under the influence of the HSR. Change related to industrial and residential land use has shown significant land expansion patterns and increased utilization efficiency, reflecting that industrialization and urbanization have been the primary drivers of land demand surrounding the HSR. The findings offer valuable insights and references for developing nations to formulate and implement spatial management policies and initiatives related to HSR.

The impact of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural economic resilience: based on spatial spillover and threshold effect test

This study focuses on the role of agricultural production agglomeration in strengthening agricultural economic resilience, exploring the threshold effect of agricultural technological innovation level and the spatial spillover effect of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural economic resilience. We conducted research across 31 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2007 to 2022. By constructing the evaluation index system of agricultural economic resilience, the entropy value method is used to measure the value of agricultural economic resilience, and then kernel density estimation and spatial econometrics model, threshold regression model are used to analyze the relationship between agricultural production agglomeration, agricultural technological innovation and agricultural economic resilience. (1) The analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution trend shows that the overall level of China’s agricultural economic resilience continued to rise, and presented a spatial development pattern of “high in the east and low in the west.” The overall level of agricultural production agglomeration in China shows a trend of first rising and then falling, among which the level of agricultural production agglomeration in the central region is significantly higher than that in the northwest and southeast regions. (2) The spatial Durbin model shows that agricultural production agglomeration can not only effectively improve the level of local agricultural economic resilience, but also have a positive impact on neighboring agriculture economic resilience produces positive spatial spillover effects. (3) Agricultural production agglomeration can improve the level of agricultural economic resilience by promoting agricultural social service. (4) The impact of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural economic resilience shows great differences in different geographical regions. Among them, agricultural production agglomeration in the central region has a significant positive impact on the agricultural economic resilience of both local and adjacent areas. (5) The threshold effect model shows that the impact of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural economic resilience has significant nonlinear characteristics, and its impact shows an increasing marginal effect as the level of agricultural technological innovation increases. To address this, policymakers should reinforce agricultural cluster construction, boost innovation capacity and treasure spillover effects between regions. These insights provide valuable direction for policymakers in crafting effective measures to enhance agricultural economic resilience.

Influence of financial inclusion and industrial robots on the efficiency of China's OFDI: A heterogeneous spatial stochastic frontier analysis

Enhancing the efficacy of China's outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) constitutes a significant avenue for realizing the sustainable development of China's economy. This study analyzes panel data from 63 countries from 2010 to 2021 to create a heterogeneous spatial stochastic frontier model to examine how financial inclusion and industrial robotics in host nations affect COFDI efficiency. The findings are as follows. To begin with, COFDI manifests positive spatial spillover effects across countries. Moreover, from a spatial perspective, financial inclusion diminishes COFDI efficiency, whereas the interaction between financial inclusion and industrial robots increases its efficiency. Industrial robots, thus, counteract the diminishing impact of financial inclusion on COFDI efficiency. Additionally, concerning the heterogeneity of location choice and investment motivation in COFDI, the interaction between financial inclusion and industrial robots in developed economies augments COFDI efficiency as opposed to emerging market economies. Conversely, technology-seeking investment mitigates the adverse effects of financial inclusion on the efficacy of COFDI when juxtaposed with resource-seeking investment. This study provides theoretical insights and practical recommendations for improving the efficiency and guiding the destination selection of COFDI.

Issuance of urban investment bonds and high-quality urban economic development

High-quality economic development is a significant issue in China's new era, wherein an active government plays a crucial role in the rational allocation of public resources. This study examines the impact of urban investment bond issuance on the high-quality development of urban economies using panel data from Chinese cities. It further explores the specific mechanisms and regional heterogeneity of this impact. By clarifying the fundamental attributes and channels of influence of urban investment bonds, this study incorporates regional debt elements as a unique factor into the spatial Durbin model to investigate their specific spatial spillover effects, aiming to broaden and enrich economic growth theory. The findings reveal that urban investment bond issuance significantly promotes high-quality urban economic development and has a positive spatial spillover effect. The primary mechanisms include alleviating fiscal pressure, enhancing research and development expenditure, and increasing educational spending. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promotion effect of urban investment bonds on high-quality urban economic development is not significant in central and western cities. This study provides theoretical and practical insights into accurately understanding the relationship between government-issued urban investment bonds and high-quality economic development and aids different regions and cities in identifying their unique positions to implement tailored debt issuance strategies.

A Study on the Impact of Water Resource Tax on Urban Water Ecological Resilience

Urban water ecology has important ecological functions, such as urban ecological security, pollution purification and rain-flood regulation. Enhancing urban water ecological resilience (UWER) is a key approach to advancing urban water ecological governance, and a water resource tax (WRT) is an important measure for protecting the water ecological environment. On the basis of data from 264 prefecture-level cities and above from 2009 to 2021, this paper constructs an indicator to measure UWER and analyzes the impact of a WRT on UWER via the time-varying DID model. The study reveals that the implementation of a WRT significantly enhances UWER, but the effect shows diminishing marginal returns and insignificant long-term effects. However, spatial analysis indicates that a WRT has a positive spatial spillover effect on urban water ecology, enhancing the UWER of surrounding cities. Additionally, the heterogeneity analysis of different cities indicates that a WRT has a notably stronger impact on cities located on provincial borders, resource-based cities and small- to medium-sized cities. This study provides a new perspective on improving UWER and offers important references for further improving WRT policies.

Economic Decentralization and High-Quality Urban Development: Perspective from Local Effect and Spatial Spillover in 276 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

The advancement of high-quality urban development is of paramount importance for the enhancement of sustainable development and competitiveness at the city level. The economic decentralization system represents a pivotal institutional driving force in this regard. This paper examines the impact of decentralization on the high-quality development of Chinese cities. It constructs the high-quality urban development index (HUDI) through the entropy weight method and analyzes the mechanisms and spatial correlations between fiscal and financial decentralization on the high-quality development of cities through the establishment of panel and spatial regression models. The findings indicate that fiscal and financial decentralization exert a positive influence on urban high-quality development. However, the two forms of decentralization do not exhibit synergies but rather exert an inhibitory effect on one another. Furthermore, decentralization has a considerable positive spatial spillover effect on urban high-quality development. Heterogeneity analyses demonstrate that the impact of the economic decentralization system varies across different regions, reform periods, and cities with varying administrative levels. The robustness test of this paper provides further evidence of the reliability of the research findings. This paper offers theoretical support and policy recommendations for optimizing economic decentralization systems and promoting high-quality urban development.

Can transportation networks contribute to the sustainable development of urban agglomeration spatial structures?

The advancements in global urbanisation have significantly elevated the configuration of transportation networks for the sustainable development of urban agglomeration spatial structures (UASS). Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering 140 counties and districts in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle from 2014 to 2023, this study empirically examines the impact of transportation networks on the sustainability of UASS. It elucidates the underlying mechanisms using spatial Durbin, spatial spillover and multiple mediation effect models. The findings reveal that transportation networks considerably enhance the sustainability of UASS and generate substantial positive spatial spillover effects. The decay boundary of the spatial spillover effects exhibits a transition from positive to negative, eventually approaching ineffectiveness. The heterogeneity analysis indicates significant variations in terms of transportation network expansion and regional functional division on the sustainability of UASS across regions with various levels of economic development. This outcome suggests that regional development policies should carefully consider regional economic development disparities. The mechanism analysis further reveals that transportation networks enable the sustainability of UASS by accelerating regional hierarchical systems and regional connectivity.

Fostering Inclusive Green Growth in Chinese Cities: Investigating the Role of Artificial Intelligence

In the new round of global technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence (AI) provides an opportunity to foster urban inclusive green growth (IGG). On the basis of scientifically measuring the IGG level and AI development level of Chinese cities from 2010 to 2022, this paper systematically explores the impact and internal mechanism of AI on IGG. This study finds that AI development significantly promotes urban IGG, and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. The effect of AI on IGG will exhibit heterogeneity because of differences in urban characteristics such as government financial support, information infrastructure development, and innovation and entrepreneurship vitality. Mechanism test reveals that AI development fosters urban IGG through digital technology innovation and industrial structure optimization. Furthermore, AI development has a positive spatial spillover effect on IGG in neighboring cities. This study provides valuable theoretical insights and policy ideas for planning in emerging economies to promote high-quality economic development and ecological civilization through the application of AI technology.

The impact of national land supervision system on urban low-carbon transformation: evidence from China

The land system is a crucial factor influencing urban low-carbon sustainable development. However, previous research has paid little attention to the effects and mechanisms of the national land supervision system (NLSS) on urban low-carbon transformation (ULCT). This study uses China’s routine land inspection as a quasi-natural experiment and examines the impact of NLSS on ULCT using panel data from 283 Chinese cities between 2005 and 2016. The study finds that NLSS significantly promotes ULCT, with a series of robustness checks supporting this conclusion, showing a 1.95% improvement in carbon emission performance in cities under supervision. NLSS mainly facilitates ULCT by improving land use efficiency, upgrading the structural of the service sector, and promoting technological progress. Compared to eastern cities, southern cities, large cities, and non-resource-based cities, NLSS more effectively promotes low-carbon transformation in central and western, northern, small- and medium-sized, and resource-based cities. Additionally, in contrast to cities with high environmental awareness, high marketization levels, high financial development levels, and high fiscal pressure, NLSS more strongly promotes ULCT in cities with lower levels of these factors. Furthermore, NLSS exhibits a significant positive spatial spillover effect in promoting ULCT. In advancing ULCT, NLSS can be synergized with smart city pilot policies and innovative city pilot policies but has not shown synergies with low-carbon city pilot policies.

The role of the digital economy on the coordinated development of green agriculture and food security: evidence from China

Promoting the coordinated development of green agriculture and food security is important for global sustainable development, and digital economy is a potential path to realizing this goal. Using panel data of 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions) in China from 2014 to 2021, this study applies the entropy weight method and the coupling coordination degree model to measure the development of the digital economy and the coordination of green agriculture and food security. Moreover, the study constructs fixed-effects and spatial spillover effect models to determine the effect of the digital economy on the coordination of green agriculture and food security. We find a positive development trend between digital economy and coordination development in China, with no evident polarization phenomenon. The digital economy can effectively promote the coordinated development of green agriculture and food security, and has positive spatial spillover effects. Our findings expand the research related to the digital economy, and contribute to the promotion of sustainable agricultural development and food security.

The impact of urbanization in China on influenza incidence across neighboring cities

ObjectivesAlthough the relationship between urbanization and influenza has received increasing attention, previous studies have often examined this relationship based on single indicators, neglecting the multi-dimensions of urban development and their integrated impact on influenza incidence in neighboring cities. MethodsA multidimensional urbanization evaluation framework was developed based on social, economic, and ecological dimensions to comprehensively assess urbanization. Then, we analyzed the impact of urbanization development on influenza incidence within and across cities using Bayesian spatiotemporal models and spatial Durbin models. Regional heterogeneity analysis was performed to investigate the impact of urbanization on influenza incidence within cities. ResultsFrom 2014 to 2019, there were 5,062,254 influenza cases in 283 prefecture-level cities in China. Each standard deviation increment in comprehensive, social, and economic indexes of urbanization was associated with a 14.9% (95% CI: 6.1%, 24.3%), 9.9% (95% CI: 3.5%, 16.3%), and 13.4% (95% CI: 4.5%, 23.7%) increase in influenza incidence, respectively. The effects of urban development on influenza incidence varied significantly across regions, with the greatest impact found in southern China. Additionally, a significant positive spatial spillover effect of urbanization was observed on influenza incidence in surrounding cities. ConclusionsUrbanization and its various dimensions were linked to increased risk of local influenza incidence, which also showed substantial positive spatial spillover effect to surrounding areas. During the rapid urbanization process in China, local governments should prioritize equity and accessibility in healthcare services and strengthen the coordinated prevention and control of influenza epidemics across cities.

Does the integration of digital and real economies promote urban green total factor productivity? Evidence from China

Enhancing urban green total factor productivity (UGTFP) is of great significance in driving the green transformation of cities. The integration of the digital economy and real economy (IDR) offers a novel approach to improving UGTFP. This paper constructs a theoretical analytical framework to examine the impact of IDR on UGTFP. Utilizing a range of econometric models and Chinese urban data, this paper empirically analyzes the influence, mechanism, and spatial spillover effect of IDR on UGTFP. The findings reveal that China's IDR is currently at a stage of low integration, exhibiting significant regional disparities, with a spatial distribution pattern declining from east to west. IDR can significantly enhance UGTFP, and the conclusion is supported by robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effect of IDR on UGTFP is more pronounced in the eastern and western regions, as well as in areas with a large Internet scale. The mechanism test suggests that economic agglomeration can significantly amplify the promotional effect of IDR on UGTFP. IDR can boost UGTFP by elevating innovation levels and optimizing labor resource allocation. Further exploration reveals a significant positive spatial spillover effect of IDR on UGTFP. These insights not only offer a practical pathway for green transformation but also provide empirical evidence for policymakers to formulate scientific policies, enhance coordination, and improve data governance, thereby facilitating high-quality and green economic development.

Does advanced human capital structure improve carbon emission performance in China? Empirical research from a spatial spillover perspective

Facilitating coordination between economic growth and carbon mitigation is vital for the sustainability of human society. Identifying the driving factors of carbon emission performance (CEP) is crucial for its improvement. Nevertheless, empirical research on the relationship between advanced human capital structure (AHCS) and CEP remains scarce. This study analyzes the impact of AHCS on CEP utilizing a dataset covering 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2021. First, we construct a global epsilon-based measure (EBM) model with undesired output to accurately measure the multi-period CEP for Chinese provinces. Next, we evaluate the level of AHCS from the perspective of dynamic evolution. Subsequently, a spatial Durbin model (SDM) is employed to examine the spatial spillover effects of AHCS on CEP. The results illustrate that CEP exhibits significant positive spatial spillover effects across provinces. Additionally, AHCS has a direct and significant positive impact on local CEP and can indirectly enhance CEP in neighboring regions through spillover effects, although the impact varies across different regions. The impact mechanism analysis indicates that AHCS enhances CEP via technological advancement, industrial structure upgrading (ISU), and energy efficiency improvement, despite the asymmetric effects observed between local and neighboring provinces. Therefore, shaping a favorable educational environment to optimize the human capital structure is critical for the improvement of CEP. In addition, promoting resource sharing and technology exchange through regional cooperation is essential for China's low-carbon transition development.

Emissions Reduction Effects and Carbon Leakage Risks of Carbon Emissions Trading Policy: An Empirical Study Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

China’s carbon emissions trading policy represents a significant institutional innovation designed to advance the country’s economic and social development towards sustainability and low-carbon growth. This study investigates the effects of China’s carbon emissions trading policy by employing the difference-in-differences model and spatial Durbin model, using provincial panel data spanning from 2005 to 2020. We find that the carbon emissions trading policy can inhibit per capita carbon emissions in the pilot areas. This work is primarily driven by green technological innovation and the upgrade of industrial structure. Furthermore, the carbon emissions trading policy exhibits a positive spatial spillover effect, inhibits per capita carbon emissions in the areas adjacent to the pilot through demonstration effect and competition effect, and does not cause carbon leakage. These findings reveal the policy’s effectiveness in emissions reduction, and may be useful reference for promoting sustainable economic and social development. This is of great practical significance for exploring how to optimize environmental governance measures, avoid carbon leakage, and achieve balance and fairness in responsibilities in achieving low-carbon sustainable development. Our study proposes policy recommendations for synergizing the national trading market in China.

The spatial spillover impact of artificial intelligence on energy efficiency: Empirical evidence from 278 Chinese cities

Within the framework of global sustainable development, improving energy efficiency (EE) is recognized as a crucial strategy to address environmental challenges and foster economic growth. This research employs the Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the spatial spillover effects of advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology on EE across 278 Chinese cities. The analysis reveals several key findings: first, the advancement of AI technology significantly enhances urban EE and generates a positive spatial spillover effect across different spatial weight matrices; second, there is a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped relationship between AI levels and urban EE; third, industrial structure upgrades play a significant moderating role in the impact of AI technology on urban EE. These insights not only illuminate the complex role of AI in improving regional EE but also provide critical recommendations for policymakers aiming to enhance urban EE and achieve sustainable development goals.

Path to sustainable development: The effect of China's innovative industrial clusters pilot policy on prefecture-level cities' green total factor productivity

To enhance industrial production efficiency and promote sustainable social development, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology announced the innovative industrial clusters pilot (IICP) policy and named three batches of pilot cities in 2013, 2014, and 2017. Whether this significant industrial policy has promoted green total factor productivity (GTFP) is a meaningful but under investigated question in the literature. This study thus explores the above question using a multiperiod spatial difference-in-differences approach and panel data from 273 prefecture-level cities covering 2007–2021. The super slacks based measure and Dagum Gini coefficient are first utilized to assess city-level GTFP and evaluate its spatiotemporal evolutionary features. The intraregional and interregional differences of GTFP reveal expanding trends, with contribution rates to the overall difference above 30%. Benchmark and robustness tests demonstrate promotional direct and spatial spillover effects of the IICP on GTFP. We also employ several additional tests for deeper exploration, determining that a) the direct effect of IICP gradually increases over time, with an evident a time-lag effect, and the positive spatial spillover effect has fluctuated since the policy was enforced; b) the heterogeneity effects of the IICP on GTFP was detected; c) green scientific and technological innovation is an important mechanism of how IICP implementation affects cities' GTFP; and d) the promotional effect of the IICP on GTFP significantly increases when industrial structure upgrading exceeds certain threshold values. The empirical findings of this study not only provide theoretical and practical recommendations for Chinese policymakers to enhance the IICP's policy effect, but also offer suggestions for other emerging markets to develop similar policies for sustainable social development.

Exploring the relationship between digital infrastructure and carbon emission efficiency: New insights from the resource curse and green technology innovation in China

Resource-rich regions can fall prey to the resource curse, leading to a decline in carbon emissions efficiency (CEE). But amid this challenge, building digital infrastructure offers an opportunity to find solutions that will pave the way for sustainable development. An indicator evaluation system was constructed to measure the level of digital infrastructure (DI) using panel data for 275 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. The impact of DI on CEE is validated using several econometric models. As an innovation, the time lag effect and spatial spillover effects are considered in the analysis. The study found that DI significantly improves CEE, and this effect is more effective in central and resource-based cities, but only significant in southern cities, cities with high levels of marketization, and cities with high levels of human capital. Reducing the resource curse and increasing green technological innovation are important transmission pathways, which are considered to be the key role of DI. Further, the third period of lagged DI has the most significant effect, and there is a positive spatial spillover effect of DI on the CEE of neighboring cities, which is most prominent around 600 km. Policymakers are advised to improve the level of construction of DI, focus on digital management, and utilize the role of DI at the optimal time and distance.

Fintech’s role in carbon emission efficiency: dynamic spatial analysis

Against the backdrop of digitization and global warming, fintech plays a crucial role in accelerating the growth of green finance, driving innovation in the financial industry, and catalyzing the low-carbon transformation of economic activities. This paper utilizes city panel data from 2007 to 2019 to examine the direct impact of fintech on carbon emission efficiency (CEE), the transmission channels of green technological innovation and green finance, and the spatial spillover effects, using dynamic panel models, mediation effect models, and dynamic spatial Durbin models (SDM). The study finds that: (i) Fintech significantly improves CEE, and this conclusion remains robust after accounting for potential endogeneity issues and conducting robustness tests. (ii) Mechanism analysis reveals that green finance and green technological innovation are the primary channels through which fintech influences CEE. (iii) Results from the dynamic SDM model indicate that fintech has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on CEE, with the long-term spillover effect being smaller than the short-term spillover effect. (iv) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that fintech’s improvement effect on CEE is mainly evident in eastern regions, emerging first-tier and first-tier cities, and non-resource-based cities. Our research provides new insights for policymakers on achieving China’s dual-carbon goals through the promotion of fintech development, green finance, and green technological innovation. It also aids in the coordinated development of fintech among cities and the formulation of differentiated policies, providing a theoretical foundation and empirical support for future research.

Economic Effects Assessment of Forest City Construction: Empirical Evidence from the County-Level Areas in China

Forests are both an irreplaceable natural resource and a vital economic asset for all humankind. Based on the data of counties in mainland China from 2007 to 2020, the article explores the direct impact and spatial spillover effects of the policy implementation on the economic growth of counties with the help of the forest city pilot policy and the policy evaluation model. The results reveal that policy implementation can have a positive economic growth effect on the pilot counties, which, in turn, can significantly increase the size of the county′s GDP, the level of GDP per capita, and the total amount of nighttime lighting brightness. The implementation of forest city construction can bring about 2.74% of total GDP size, about 2.63% of per capita GDP development level, and about 7.25% of nighttime light brightness to the county on average. Cost–benefit analysis also indicates that forest city construction can bring about a comprehensive economic benefit of approximately CNY 686.453 million (approximately USD 96.82 million) to the counties. The rapid improvement in labor productivity, significant influx of high-end factors, and continuous expansion of market potential are important mechanisms through which policy implementation promotes economic growth in pilot counties. While promoting economic growth in the pilot counties, forest city construction can also have positive spatial spillover effects on neighboring areas in the pilot counties. Furthermore, when the deficits in atmospheric vapor pressure and annual evapotranspiration are used as instrumental variables for forest city construction, the empirical estimates are not significantly altered. In the process of building forest cities, county governments should be wary of issues such as the high cost of forest maintenance. This study provides a Chinese model and policy reference for other countries and regions in the world to deal with the relationship between forest city construction and county economic growth.

Study on the influence degree of marine ranching on the high-quality development of coastal cities

As an innovative approach to fisheries, marine ranching is subtly transforming the development patterns of coastal cities through the enhancement of fisheries, the professional transition of fishermen, and the restoration of the marine environment. Utilizing the entropy method and the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method, this paper calculated the high-quality development index (HQDI) of 53 coastal cities from 2010 to 2021 and assessed the influence degree of marine ranching on coastal cities' HQDI. The key findings were as follows. Firstly, marine ranching generally improved the HQDI of coastal cities. Coastal cities with national marine ranching demonstration zones achieved an average increase of approximately 0.83 % in their HQDI compared to those without. Secondly, through the effect of carbon emission reduction, marine ranching contributed to an average increase of approximately 0.84 % in the HQDI. However, the green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrading effects have yet to materialize. Thirdly, this impact varied among coastal cities. When the number of marine ranching exceeded three, the average increase of HQDI was approximately 1.82 %. This effect was pronounced in higher-tier cities, with first-tier cities experiencing an average increase of 1.26 %, second-tier cities an average increase of 1.19 %, and third-tier cities an average increase of 2.18 %. Furthermore, this effect was significant in northern coastal cities, where the average increase was approximately 0.98 %. In coastal cities with low levels of manpower and material resources, this effect was also pronounced, with the HQDI increasing by an average of about 1.01 % and 0.98 %, respectively. Lastly, the spatial econometric analysis revealed a positive spatial spillover effect. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of China's recent marine ranching construction, providing a theoretical and empirical foundation for authorities to formulate targeted policies and measures.