Large Carnivore Populations Research Articles

Insights into large carnivore populations in Uganda: A participatory survey of lions, leopards, and hyenas using spatial capture-recapture

Monitoring wildlife populations at scale is fraught with logistical and resource constraints. Despite this, estimating wildlife population state variables and vital rates remains crucial for science, and to assess conservation investment and effort. The veracity and transparency of results also helps prevent politicization of wildlife populations. In Uganda, robust estimates of carnivore population size are rare in the literature. To overcome a near two-decade long data gap we initiated a survey of African lions, leopards, and spotted hyenas with the Uganda Wildlife Authority across six important protected areas. Surveys were conducted within a spatial capture-recapture framework, the industry gold-standard for monitoring carnivore populations. For lions, we used unstructured spatial sampling protocols (in the form of vehicle-based searches), while for leopards, and spotted hyenas we deployed camera traps. Our protocols were designed to obtain unambiguous individual identification photographs. This large-scale effort involved data collection by >100 local conservation stakeholders (including lodge guides, trophy hunters, university students, and government rangers). Locally extinct in three areas, we show lion numbers are precariously low in two of three sites where they still occur (Queen Elizabeth abundance=39.72, Posterior standard deviation (PSD)=7.96; Kidepo Valley abundance=22.23, PSD=11.67). Murchison Falls was identified as Uganda’s lion stronghold with an estimate of ∼240 individuals (PSD=34) and average park-wide densities of 7.43 individuals/100 km2 (PSD=1.05). Leopard densities were highest in Lake Mburo and Murchison Falls. In Murchison they reach some of the highest densities in Africa (14.06 individuals/100 km2, PSD=2.65). Spotted hyena densities were high compared to lions (range=6.15–45.31 individuals/100 km2), except in Lake Mburo where densities were markedly lower (park abundance=23 individuals in 370 km2, PSD=5.26). Our work has critical policy implications, and forms the foundation of the new Strategic Action Plan for Large Carnivore Conservation in Uganda (2023–2033). It also illustrates how cutting-edge, transparent and collaborative science, implemented by multiple wildlife conservation stakeholders can help gauge the conservation status of their wildlife resources.

High carnivore richness despite human pressure and prey depletion in the south-west of the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area

Abstract Transfrontier conservation landscapes, such as the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA TCA) in southern Africa, play a crucial role in preserving global biodiversity and promoting the sustainable development of local communities. However, resources to facilitate management could become scarce across large areas, leading to difficulties in obtaining baseline ecological information. Consequently, in the absence of sustainable management vast landscapes may experience loss of wildlife species, which could destabilize ecosystems. This effect is particularly significant if the loss involves top predators. Hence, understanding carnivore distributions is critical to informing management. We conducted a mammal survey in the Ondjou Conservancy in Namibia, an 8,729 km2 understudied area in the south-west of the KAZA TCA. We analysed camera-trapping data from a 2,304 km2 grid and identified high carnivore richness (18 species) despite widespread human activity and prey depletion. Using a multi-species occupancy framework we found that carnivore occurrence increased with increasing distance from the main village and with closer proximity to the Nyae Nyae Conservancy neighbouring the KAZA TCA, which has large and diverse carnivore populations. Carnivore occurrence was higher when local prey richness was high. The Ondjou Conservancy could function as an important buffer for the larger conservation network, yet rural communities in this area require support for fostering human–wildlife coexistence. Additionally, restoring the natural prey base will be critical to ensuring the long-term viability of carnivore populations in this and other human-impacted landscapes. With many remote areas of transfrontier conservation landscapes being understudied, our findings illustrate the conservation potential of such areas within large-scale conservation networks.

A global assessment of large terrestrial carnivore kill rates.

Through killing and instilling fear in their prey, large terrestrial carnivores shape the structure and function of ecosystems globally. Most large carnivore species have experienced severe range and population declines due to human activities, and many are now threatened with extinction. Consequently, the impacts of these predators on food webs have been diminished or lost completely from many ecosystems. Kill rates provide a fundamental metric for understanding large carnivore ecology and assessing and comparing predation within and across ecological communities. Our systematic review of large terrestrial mammalian carnivore kill rates reveals significant positive geographic (North America, Europe, and Africa) and taxonomic (grey wolf Canis lupus, puma Puma concolor, lion Panthera leo, and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx) bias, with most studies apparently motivated by human-carnivore conflict over access to ungulate prey and wildlife management objectives. Our current understanding of the behaviour and functional roles of many large carnivore species and populations thus remains limited. By synthesising and comparing kill rates, we show that solitary carnivores (e.g. brown bears Ursus arctos and most felids) exhibit higher per capita kill rates than social carnivores. However, ungulate predation by bears is typically limited to predation of neonates during a short period. Lower per capita kill rates by social carnivores suggests group living significantly reduces energetic demands, or, alternatively, that group-living carnivores defend and consume a greater proportion of large prey carcasses, or may acquire more food through other means (e.g. scavenging, kleptoparasitism) than solitary hunters. Kill and consumption rates for Canidae - measured as kilograms of prey per kilogram of carnivore per day - are positively correlated with body mass, consistent with increasing energy costs associated with a cursorial hunting strategy. By contrast, ambush predators such as felids show an opposite trend, and thus the potential energetic advantage of an ambush hunting strategy for carnivores as body mass increases. Additionally, ungulate kill rates remain relatively constant across solitary felid body sizes, indicative of energetic constraints and optimal foraging. Kill rate estimates also reveal potential insights into trophic structuring within carnivore guilds, with subordinate carnivores often killing more than their larger counterparts, which may be indicative of having to cope with food losses to scavengers and dominant competitors. Subordinate carnivores may thus serve an important role in provisioning food to other trophic levels within their respective ecosystems. Importantly, kill rates also clarify misconceptions around the predatory behaviour of carnivores (e.g. spotted hyaenas Crocuta crocuta and wolverines Gulo gulo are often considered scavengers rather than the capable hunters that they are) and thus the potential impacts of various carnivore species on their ecological communities. Despite the importance of kill rates in understanding predator-prey interactions, their utility is not widely recognised, and insufficient research limits our ability to fully appreciate and predict the consequences of modified predation regimes, justify current management actions affecting carnivores, or inform effective conservation measures. Together with other important research on predator-prey interactions, robust kill rate studies that address the research deficiencies we highlight will provide a deeper understanding of the foraging behaviours and potential ecosystem impacts of many of the world's carnivores, thus aiding effective conservation and management actions.

Habitat suitability and protected area coverage for an expanding cougar Puma concolor population in Canada.

Successful conservation of expanding large carnivore populations and management of human-wildlife conflict to promote coexistence requires sufficient spatiotemporal knowledge to inform appropriate action. In Canada, cougars (Puma concolor) are expanding their range eastwards and little research is available for use in decision making by land managers and conservation planners. To inform proactive management regarding expanding populations of cougars in Canada, we utilized open-source cougar presence and land-cover data in a maximum entropy habitat suitability model to determine potentially suitable habitat for cougars across the country. We then used a gap analysis to determine the effectiveness of existing formal protected areas to protect potential cougar habitat. Suitable habitat exists for range-expanding cougars dispersing eastwards through the central and eastern provinces to the Atlantic coast. While the habitat is highly fragmented, the highest suitability occurs in areas of medium road density, indicating that the potential for new human-cougar conflict will likely involve residents of exurban and rural areas. Protected areas offered 16% coverage of suitable habitat, although most protected areas that overlap predicted cougar habitat are not large enough to effectively conserve the large home range requirements of cougars. Synthesis and Applications: High fragmentation of suitable habitat and the potential for human-wildlife conflict requires proactive management to ensure appropriately sized and connected areas are maintained for the establishment of expanding cougar populations. Many of the management actions intended to aid in the conservation of cougars and their habitat can also serve to mitigate potential human-cougar conflict arising as a consequence of an expanding population, such as highway wildlife crossing structures and formal habitat protection.

Did we achieve what we aimed for? Assessing the outcomes of a human–carnivore conflict mitigation and coexistence project in Europe

Monitoring and evaluation practices, demanded by nature conservation project donors, often focus on practical outputs, leaving the assessment of intended short and medium‐term outcomes and long‐term impacts challenging. This study employs a merger of the conflict intervention triangle model (CITM) and its three dimensions relationship, substance, and process, together with the logical framework approach (LFA) within the context of a human–wildlife conflict and coexistence (HWCC) project (LIFE EuroLargeCarnivores) in order to assess project correlated outcomes on stakeholder level over time.Two stakeholder surveys were conducted across 14 project partner countries, capturing baseline perceptions in 2018 and assessing changes in 2021. To assess the actual influence of the project with its focus on conflict mitigation, we applied an ex post counterfactual analysis. Results indicate positive developments in all dimensions of the CITM. The influence of the project is demonstrated by statistically significant differences in response behavior between participants and non‐participants of project interventions. The overall outcome regarding beliefs in satisfactory future management of increasing large carnivore populations, is more intricate. Significant differences are observed among three selected main stakeholder categories over the project's timeframe. While nature conservationists maintain high confidence levels, confidence of hunters and livestock raisers declined. However, results for participants of project interventions depict a significantly lower decline in confidence compared to non‐participants. Based on our findings, we provide insights how to efficiently evaluate outcomes of HWCC projects, offering recommendations for wildlife conservation practitioners. We conclude that HWCC projects are important also and especially in times of unfavorable frame conditions. Rigorous evaluation methods are essential to ensure efficient use of resources in order to maximize the outcomes of HWCC projects. The study highlights the need for long‐term evaluation to assess broader impacts at country, regional, and sector levels.

Mapping opportunities and barriers for coexistence between people and pumas in the Argentine Dry Chaco

AbstractAimThe persistence of large carnivore populations depends on their survival outside protected areas, where they often impact local livelihoods through livestock depredation. Understanding the impacts of human behaviour on large carnivores in shared landscapes is thus important but is often overlooked in habitat assessments or conservation planning. We employed an integrated approach that considers human behaviour and landscape structure metrics to assess the potential for human‐puma (Puma concolor) coexistence in the Chaco region, a global deforestation and defaunation hotspot.LocationArgentine Dry Chaco (~490,000 km2).MethodsWe identified suitable puma habitat patches and movement areas using occupancy modelling and combined it with a spatial human‐puma conflict risk model based on interview data to identify ‘safe’ and ‘unsafe’ habitat patches. We then used resistance surfaces to identify ‘safe’ and ‘unsafe’ movement areas, as well as ‘severed’ movement areas where anthropogenic land conversion inhibits movement.ResultsSafe puma habitat patches (i.e., suitable and safe) covered 29% of the region, whereas attractive sinks (i.e., suitable but risky) represented 12%. Movement areas corresponded to 60% of the region, while conflict risk and high landscape resistance undermined connectivity: unsafe and severed movement areas covered 10% and 11% of the region, respectively. Nearly 98% of safe habitat and movement areas occurred outside protected areas.Main ConclusionsWe provide an integrated conceptual framework and spatial explicit template for a three‐pronged conservation strategy to (1) protect safe habitat and movement areas, (2) mitigate livestock depredation in attractive sinks and unsafe movement areas and (3) restore landscape in severed and matrix areas to improve ecological connectivity. This would allow pumas to maintain viable populations while reducing negative impacts on local people. More generally, we show how integrating habitat and conflict risk models can reveal opportunities and challenges for human‐carnivore coexistence beyond protected areas.

Influence of resource gradients and habitat edges on density variation in tiger populations in a multi-use landscape

Spatial heterogeneity in the local densities of terrestrial carnivores is driven by multiple interacting biotic and abiotic factors. Space-use patterns of large carnivores reflect the competing demands of resource selection (e.g., exploitation of habitats with abundant prey) and minimization of risks arising from human interactions. Estimating the relative strength of these drivers is essential to understand spatial variation in densities of large carnivores and there are still key knowledge gaps for many large carnivore populations. To better understand the relative roles of environmental and human drivers of spatial variation in tiger (Panthera tigris) densities, we surveyed a 3000 km2 landscape in North India using camera trap data. Over two years, we photo-captured 92 unique adult tigers. Associating spatial covariates with patterns of detection allowed us to test hypotheses about the relative influence of prey abundance, habitat structure and extent, and proximity to habitat edges on spatial variation in tiger densities across a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. We documented extensive variation in tiger density within and across management units and protected areas. Spatial variation in prey abundance and proximity to grassland habitats, rather than human use (e.g. extent of human-dominated edge habitat and protection status), explained most of the spatial variation in tiger density in two of the five surveyed sites. The region’s largest tiger population occurred in a multi-use forest beyond protected area boundaries, where wild ungulates were abundant. Our results suggest that tigers can occur at high densities in areas with extensive human use, provided sufficiently high prey densities, and tracts of refuge habitats (eg. areas with dense vegetation with low human use). We argue that tiger conservation portfolio can be expanded across multi-use landscapes with a focus on areas that are adaptively managed as “zones of coexistence” and “refuge habitats”. Advancing this conservation strategy is contingent on greatly strengthening systems to effectively and equitably redress human–wildlife conflict and leveraging existing policies to strengthen local participation in conservation planning and forest stewardship. Our insights into the environmental drivers of spatial heterogeneity in tiger populations can inform both local management and guide to species recovery in working landscapes.

Predictions & perceptions: A social-ecological analysis of human-carnivore conflict in Botswana

Human-carnivore conflict in agrarian landscapes poses a significant threat to both large carnivore populations and human livelihoods. Conservation strategies aimed at mitigating conflict often rely primarily on ecological, landscape-scale factors. However, assessing the influence of microhabitat, as well as local variation in human perceptions, can offer valuable insights into the spatial patterns of human-carnivore conflict. The objectives of this study were to identify landscape predictors of livestock depredation risk, characterize microhabitat vegetation patterns at kill sites, and assess the spatial alignment between ecologically-predicted and human-perceived depredation risk. Through use of predation risk modeling, microhabitat pattern analysis, and participatory mapping exercises, we provide insight into the spatial patterns of livestock depredation risk from a multi-carnivore guild in an agrarian landscape located in the Makgadikgadi region of Botswana. We identified 170 depredation events and conducted 63 participatory mapping exercises across community lands situated between two wildlife protected areas. Results indicated anthropogenic landscape variables as the primary drivers of general depredation risk. Notably, distinct spatial patterns emerged between African lion (Panthera leo) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) depredation, underscoring the need for species-specific conservation strategies. Microhabitat analysis indicated a preference for lower vegetation cover within the multi-predator guild, suggesting livestock microhabitat risk-mitigation behaviors outweigh predator hunting strategies. While human perceptions generally aligned with ecologically predicted risk, identified divergences emphasize the importance of tailored conflict mitigation strategies to accommodate varying influences. Overall, the findings advocate for species-specific depredation risk analyses and the inclusion of human perceptions for a comprehensive spatial understanding of livestock depredation risk.

Lion lords and sharing hyaenas: Carnivore guild dynamics around elephant carcasses.

Megaherbivore carcasses represent sporadic but energetically rewarding resources for carnivores, offering a unique opportunity to study coexistence dynamics between facultative scavengers. South African fenced protected areas, such as Madikwe Game Reserve (Madikwe hereafter), host viable populations of large carnivores and high densities of elephants, Loxodonta africana. However, high carnivore densities can lead to potentially fatal interspecific encounters and increased competition, particularly around high-quality trophic resources. This study explores the temporal partitioning and co-detection strategies of carnivores at six elephant carcasses in Madikwe, aiming to understand how the increased carrion biomass available at elephant carcasses influences coexistence dynamics. Camera traps were deployed to monitor carcasses during two periods (2019 and 2020), revealing occurrences of six carnivore species. Carnivores, particularly black-backed jackals, Lupulella mesomelas, (hereafter jackal), lions, Panthera leo, and spotted hyaenas, Crocuta crocuta, comprised 56.7% of carcass observations, highlighting their pivotal roles in scavenging dynamics. Pairwise co-detection analysis demonstrated consistent association and shared peak activity periods between jackals and spotted hyaenas, indicating potential resource sharing. However, the minimal co-detection rates between lions and other carnivores highlight their resource domination. There was some evidence of temporal partitioning between carnivores, with most species exhibiting earlier peaks in nocturnal activity to avoid temporal overlap with lions. This study emphasises the importance of elephant carcasses in the diet of multiple species and coexistence techniques utilised to exploit this ephemeral resource. As fenced protected areas become crucial for conserving intact carnivore guilds globally, further research into carnivore behavioural adaptations at carcasses is recommended to shed light on their coexistence strategies.

Large carnivores and the EU LIFE programme

Most large carnivore populations have increased in recent decades in Europe. Along with the adoption of the EU Habitats Directive in 1992, the EU launched a funding program entirely dedicated to environment, nature protection and climate action, the European LIFE programme. Here, we explore the investment of this programme in large carnivore conservation across Europe, from its implementation in 1992 to 2020 (28 years), with respect to budgets, species considered, economic factors and the geographical distribution of the projects. A total of 153 projects have directly or indirectly targeted large carnivores, with a total budget of ca. 338.2 M€ (EU contribution >194.1 M€). Despite the transboundary character of most large carnivore populations, only 5.8 % of projects worked across national borders. Large carnivores did not receive equal attention within the programme, and EU Member States from Southern Europe accumulated 77.7 % of the projects. The region of Abruzzo (Italy) has been granted with the highest number of projects (n= 28), followed by Castilla y León (Spain, 16 projects). At national level, the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) did not correlate with the number of LIFE projects granted, but the proportion of the GDP invested in the protection of biodiversity and landscapes (positively). However, at the level of European regions (NUTS 2), those regions with lower average per capita GDP were more frequently granted with LIFE projects. We discuss several factors affecting the distribution of projects across Europe, and we make recommendations for future investments in maximizing large carnivore conservation under this program.

Anthropogenic pressure limits the recovery of a postwar leopard population in central Mozambique

AbstractThe population size and conservation status of wildlife in post‐conflict areas is often uncertain. In Mozambique, decades of armed conflict resulted in large‐scale wildlife population depletion with limited conservation and research opportunities. The African leopard (Panthera pardus) is a large carnivore with great ecological and economic significance, yet their population status is largely unknown within Mozambique. Using camera trapping in conjunction with robust spatially explicit capture‐recapture modeling, we estimated leopard density in 2021 for Coutada 11, a wildlife management area in the postwar Zambezi Delta landscape of central Mozambique. Leopard density was relatively low (1.57 ± 0.37 SE [latent‐mixture‐model] and 1.84 ± 0.41 [sex‐mixture‐model] leopards/100 km2), occurring in the bottom fourth of 161 range‐wide leopard densities, and similar to those from semiarid and human‐dominated landscapes. Prey‐based carrying capacity estimates suggested that leopard density should be at least twice as large. Despite a recent and substantial reduction in poaching activity, evidence of snared leopards indicates that sustained bushmeat poaching, combined with sustainable, but additional legal offtake is suppressing leopard population recovery. This study provides important baseline insight into leopard population density in Mozambique and joins mounting evidence indicating that anthropogenic pressures limit large carnivore populations which is of major national and global concern. We suggest long‐term monitoring of this leopard population to determine trends over time and implement effective conservation interventions in response to population changes. This population clearly has the capacity to recover if hunting quotas are reduced to account for illegal offtake and, more importantly, if anti‐poaching efforts are redoubled to reduce unsustainable anthropogenic mortality of leopards.

Can an old dog learn a new trick? Efficacy of livestock guardian dogs at keeping an apex predator away from people

Historic practices to reduce dangerous interactions between people, livestock, and large carnivores are returning alongside the recovery of some large carnivore populations. Emerging novel scenarios where people and carnivores interact make it important to identify nonlethal tools to reduce risk to people and facilitate coexistence. We tested an ancient practice in a novel way by placing livestock guardian dogs (LGDs) at farmsteads (i.e., areas with a family home and grain bins) with chronic interactions with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos). Grizzly bears are attracted to spilled grains around storage bins, causing concern over human safety near homes. Although we were only able to place five LGDs at four farmsteads, we found several lines of evidence supporting the use of LGDs to deter bears and protect people. There were 58-fold fewer camera-trap detections of bears visiting farmsteads with LGDs and an increase in behaviors suggesting bear discomfort compared to paired neighbor farmsteads that did not receive an LGD (i.e., control sites). After LGDs were deployed, there was an 87.8 % reduction in GPS-collar locations of bears within 300 m of farmsteads relative to before. Farmers had a positive experience using LGDs and would recommend them to others. Our results suggest LGDs could serve to protect specific locations and offer a new use of an old tool, but we recommend further research to broaden the scope of inference because of the small sample size of this study.

Reintroduction of large carnivores in Europe: a case study on frictions between rules of law and rules of nature

Scientists have announced the Anthropocene as a geological epoch in which human impacts have become dominant, and the human/nature dichotomy seems to have been transcended. This article examines if, and under what conditions, the obligation to maintain or restore natural habitats and species of wild fauna at favourable conservation status under EU Nature protection law (Habitats Directive) includes obligations for EU member states to reintroduce species against the dynamic backdrop of the Anthropocene. The dynamics of the Anthropocene pertain to time (past or historical versus present or current presence of a species within a particular habitat), space (native or indigenous ecosystem versus human-induced or anthropogenically changed ecosystem or habitat) and ontologies (‘natural’ versus ‘human’ reintroduction). Focusing on the particular issue of the ‘restoration’ and ‘reintroduction’ of populations of large carnivores – so-called keystone species – in the EU, these temporal, spatial and conceptual dimensions (nature/human dichotomy) of the Habitats Directive are explored in the context of three concrete reintroduction scenarios. Considering this setting, what have the obligations to maintain and to restore come to imply, and is a disconnect emerging between the relatively static ‘rules of law’ and dynamic ‘rules of nature’?

An integrated population model reveals source-sink dynamics for competitively subordinate African wild dogs linked to anthropogenic prey depletion.

Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore populations on which they depend. The densities of apex carnivores like the lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitively subordinate carnivores like the African wild dog benefit from competitive release when the density of apex carnivores is low, so the expected effect of a simultaneous decrease in resources and dominant competitors is not obvious. Wild dogs in Zambia's South Luangwa Valley Ecosystem occupy four ecologically similar areas with well-described differences in the densities of prey and dominant competitors due to spatial variation in illegal offtake. We used long-term monitoring data to fit a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) of the demography and dynamics of wild dogs in these four regions. The IPM used Leslie projection to link a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model of area-specific survival (allowing for individual heterogeneity in detection), a zero-inflated Poisson model of area-specific fecundity and a state-space model of population size that used estimates from a closed mark-capture model as the counts from which (latent) population size was estimated. The IPM showed that both survival and reproduction were lowest in the region with the lowest density of preferred prey (puku, Kobus vardonii and impala, Aepyceros melampus), despite little use of this area by lions. Survival and reproduction were highest in the region with the highest prey density and intermediate in the two regions with intermediate prey density. The population growth rate ( ) was positive for the population as a whole, strongly positive in the region with the highest prey density and strongly negative in the region with the lowest prey density. It has long been thought that the benefits of competitive release protect African wild dogs from the costs of low prey density. Our results show that the costs of prey depletion overwhelm the benefits of competitive release and cause local population decline where anthropogenic prey depletion is strong. Because competition is important in many guilds and humans are affecting resources of many types, it is likely that similarly fundamental shifts in population limitation are arising in many systems.

Wire-snare bushmeat poaching and the large African carnivore guild: Impacts, knowledge gaps, and field-based mitigation

Wire-snare poaching for bushmeat is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to the species comprising the large African carnivore guild (African lion, African wild dog, spotted hyena, cheetah and leopard), with impacts described primarily through prey depletion and snaring by-catch mortality or injury. However, the species-specific impacts of snaring on this guild and on intraguild dynamics are not well-understood. These guilds evolved through competition and predation and have a diverse array of behaviors, space use, movements, diet, morphology, and densities; thus, it is logical to expect snaring impacts through prey depletion and by-catch will also be variable, subtle, and complex, yet significant. Utilizing the scientific literature and ongoing, long-term research we: 1) Summarize and describe the known and potential impacts of snaring by-catch and prey depletion on specific species in the guild and on intraguild dynamics, 2) Identify knowledge gaps and propose areas of future research to better understand and address snaring threats, and 3) Describe a successful strategy collaboratively merging conservation science work with resource protection, that has been implemented across carnivore strongholds in Zambia to combat the immediate threats from snaring on large carnivore populations. Collectively, this work can help mitigate snaring impacts while longer-term community-based solutions to the bushmeat crisis are developed and implemented.

Transboundary Monitoring of the Wolf Alpine Population over 21 Years and Seven Countries.

Wolves have large spatial requirements and their expansion in Europe is occurring over national boundaries, hence the need to develop monitoring programs at the population level. Wolves in the Alps are defined as a functional population and management unit. The range of this wolf Alpine population now covers seven countries: Italy, France, Austria, Switzerland, Slovenia, Liechtenstein and Germany, making the development of a joint and coordinated monitoring program particularly challenging. In the framework of the Wolf Alpine Group (WAG), researchers developed uniform criteria for the assessment and interpretation of field data collected in the frame of different national monitoring programs. This standardization allowed for data comparability across borders and the joint evaluation of distribution and consistency at the population level. We documented the increase in the number of wolf reproductive units (packs and pairs) over 21 years, from 1 in 1993-1994 up to 243 units in 2020-2021, and examined the pattern of expansion over the Alps. This long-term and large-scale approach is a successful example of transboundary monitoring of a large carnivore population that, despite administrative fragmentation, provides robust indexes of population size and distribution that are of relevance for wolf conservation and management at the transnational Alpine scale.

Lion (Panthera leo) movements in a multiuse area of the eastern Panhandle of the Okavango Delta, Botswana.

As global large carnivore populations continue to decline due to human actions, maintaining viable populations beyond protected area (PA) borders is critical. African lions (Panthera leo) ranging beyond PA borders regularly prey on domestic livestock causing humans to retaliate or even preemptively kill lions to minimize impacts of lost livestock. To understand how lions navigate high-conflict areas in human-dominated landscapes, lions were observed and monitored in the eastern Panhandle of the Okavango Delta between October 2014 and December 2016, and five lions were fitted with GPS satellite collars from August 2015 to December 2016. Lion prides and coalitions were small, with all prides having four or fewer females and all coalitions having two or fewer males. Home range size varied between the sexes but was not statistically different (males: = 584 km2, n = 3; females: = 319 km2, n = 2). There was considerable spatial overlap in home ranges as nonassociating, neighboring collared individuals utilized high levels of shared space (female-female overlap = 152 km2, representing 41-56% of respective home ranges; male-male overlap = 125-132 km2, representing 16-31% of respective home ranges). However, neighboring lions varied use of shared space temporally as evidenced by low coefficients of association (< 0.08), avoiding potentially costly interactions with neighboring individuals. Highest levels of overlap occurred during the wet and early dry seasons when flood waters minimized the amount of available land area. All collared individuals minimized time in close proximity (< 3 km) to human habitation, but some individuals were able to rely heavily on areas where unmonitored livestock grazed. While most lions exist within PAs, anthropogenic impacts beyond PA boundaries can impact critical populations within PAs. Studying systems beyond park boundaries with high levels of human-lion conflict while also establishing conservation programs that account for both ecological and sociocultural dimensions will better aid lion conservation efforts moving forward.

Understanding habitat selection of range‐expanding populations of large carnivores: 20 years of grey wolves (Canis lupus) recolonizing Germany

AbstractAimThe non‐stationarity in habitat selection of expanding populations poses a significant challenge for spatial forecasting. Focusing on the grey wolf (Canis lupus) natural recolonization of Germany, we compared the performance of different distribution modelling approaches for predicting habitat suitability in unoccupied areas. Furthermore, we analysed whether grey wolf showed non‐stationarity in habitat selection in newly colonized areas, which will impact the predictions for potential habitat.LocationGermany.MethodsUsing telemetry data as presence points, we compared the predictive performance of five modelling approaches based on combinations of distribution modelling algorithms—GLMM, MaxEnt and ensemble modelling—and two background point selection strategies. We used a homogeneous Poisson point process to draw background points from either the minimum convex polygons derived from telemetry or the whole area known to be occupied by wolves. Models were fit to the data of the first years and validated against independent data representing the expansion of the species. The best‐performing approach was then used to further investigate non‐stationarity in the species' response in spatiotemporal restricted datasets that represented different colonization steps.ResultsWhile all approaches performed similarly when evaluated against a subset of the data used to fit the models, the ensemble model based on integrated data performed best when predicting range expansion. Models for subsequent colonization steps differed substantially from the global model, highlighting the non‐stationarity of wolf habitat selection towards human disturbance during the colonization process.Main ConclusionsWhile telemetry‐only data overfitted the models, using all available datasets increased the reliability of the range expansion forecasts. The non‐stationarity in habitat selection pointed to wolves settling in the best areas first, and filling in nearby lower‐quality habitat as the population increases. Our results caution against spatial extrapolation and space‐for‐time substitutions in habitat models, at least with expanding species.

Factors affecting the recovery of Mexican wolves in the Southwest United States

Abstract Recovering and maintaining large carnivore populations is a global conservation challenge that requires better knowledge of the factors affecting their populations, particularly in shared landscapes (i.e. non‐protected areas where people occupy and or utilize the land). The Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) is an endangered wolf subspecies being recovered on shared landscapes in the Southwest United States and Mexico. We used data from the U.S. program to model population growth, evaluate the impact of management removal and illegal killing relative to other demographic factors, and test hypotheses about factors influencing rates of management removal and illegal killing. From 1998 to 2019, the population growth averaged 12% per year. Rates of natural reproduction, illegal killing and other mortality remained consistent over the 22 years; while releases, translocations and management removals varied markedly between two time periods, phase 1:1998–2007 and phase 2:2008–2019. The number of wolves removed for conflict management was higher during phase 1 (average ~ 13 per year, rate = 24.8%) than phase 2 (average of ~5 per year, rate = 5.2%). This decrease in management removal resulted in the wolf population resuming growth after a period of population stagnation. Two factors influenced this decrease, a change in policy regarding removal of wolves (stronger modelling support) and a decrease in the number of captive‐reared adult wolves released into the wild (weaker modelling support). Illegal mortality was relatively constant across both phases, but after the decrease in management removal, illegal mortality became the most important factor (relative importance shifted from 28.2% to 50.1%). Illegal mortality was positively correlated with rates of reintroduction and translocation of wolves and negatively correlated with the rate of management removal. Synthesis and applications. Using management removal to reduce human–carnivore conflict can have negative population impacts if not used judiciously. Recovering and maintaining carnivore populations in shared landscapes may require greater tolerance of conflict and more emphasis on effective conflict prevention strategies and compensation programs for affected stakeholders.

Wolverine density distribution reflects past persecution and current management in Scandinavia

After centuries of intense persecution, several large carnivore species in Europe and North America have experienced a rebound. Today's spatial configuration of large carnivore populations has likely arisen from the interplay between their ecological traits and current environmental conditions, but also from their history of persecution and protection. Yet, due to the challenge of studying population‐level phenomena, we are rarely able to disentangle and quantify the influence of past and present factors driving the distribution and density of these controversial species. Using spatial capture‐recapture models and a data set of 742 genetically identified wolverines Gulo gulo collected over ½ million km2 across their entire range in Norway and Sweden, we identify landscape‐level factors explaining the current population density of wolverines in the Scandinavian Peninsula. Distance from the relict range along the Swedish–Norwegian border, where the wolverine population survived a long history of persecution, remains a key determinant of wolverine density today. However, regional differences in management and environmental conditions also played an important role in shaping spatial patterns in present‐day wolverine density. Specifically, we found evidence of slower recolonization in areas that had set lower wolverine population goals in terms of the desired number of annual reproductions. Management of transboundary large carnivore populations at biologically relevant scales may be inhibited by administrative fragmentation. Yet, as our study shows, population‐level monitoring is an achievable prerequisite for a comprehensive understanding of the distribution and density of large carnivores across an increasingly anthropogenic landscape.