City Population Size Research Articles

Identification and Analysis of Peak Population Migration Patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Complex Network Theory

Abstract. As a vital economic and population agglomeration area in China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has attracted considerable attention regarding population migration issues. Population migration not only directly affects the population size and structure of cities within the region but also has profound implications for economic development, social stability, and urban planning. This study extends the analysis to the "Spring Festival Travel Rush" period, using population migration data from January to March in the years 2020 to 2022 as the basis. By employing complex network theory and relevant statistical indicators, the study explores the peak period population migration patterns and their variations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The research firstly identifies significant changes in population migration patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region around 2021 and analyzes the changing patterns. Secondly, network statistical indicators indicate hierarchical population migration patterns based on city tiers. Furthermore, cities with unique migration patterns are identified. Finally, based on an in-depth exploration of population migration patterns and their variations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the study provides suggestions and prospects for future urban planning and development, offering important references for addressing the challenges posed by population migration in the region.

Structural change in city systems evolution

AbstractThis paper analyzes city system dynamics, based on a theoretical framework relating interaction potentials to agglomeration economies and density externalities. It employs new historical time series data on population size of cities in Sweden over two centuries (1810–2010) and introduces two schematic growth factors: (i) the intra-city potential and (ii) the extra-city potential located in in rings encircling each city. The first factor is measured by each city’s population size, while the second is a vector of distance-discounted population size for each of a city’s urban rings. In this way, we can explain a city’s growth as a function of its interaction potential inside the city, as well as inside the first, second hand third ring. A robust finding is that cities with large ring potentials follow different development paths than those with small ring potentials. We also find clear evidence of structural change between the two centuries 1810–1910 and 1910–2010. In the first period, city growth is positively impacted by the size of the intra-city potential, whereas the same potential dampens or reduces the growth in the second period. Moreover, the ring potentials outside the city tend to switch from having negative growth stimulation in the first period to having positive stimulation in the second period.

Does the population size of a city matter to its older adults' self-rated health? Results of China data analysis.

Clarifying the association between city population size and older adults' health is vital in understanding the health disparity across different cities in China. Using a nationally representative dataset, this study employed Multilevel Mixed-effects Probit regression models and Sorting Analysis to elucidate this association, taking into account the sorting decisions made by older adults. The main results of the study include: (1) The association between city population size and the self-rated health of older adults shifts from a positive linear to an inverted U-shaped relationship once individual socioeconomic status is controlled for; the socioeconomic development of cities, intertwined with the growth of their populations, plays a pivotal role in yielding health benefits. (2) There is a sorting effect in older adults' residential decisions; compared to cities with over 5 million residents, unobserved factors result in smaller cities hosting more less-healthy older adults, which may cause overestimation of health benefits in cities with greater population size. (3) The evolving socioeconomic and human-made environment resulting from urban population growth introduces health risks for migratory older adults but yields benefits for those with local resident status who are male, aged over 70, and have lower living standards and socioeconomic status. And (4) The sorting effects are more pronounced among older adults with greater resources supporting their mobility or those without permanent local resident status. Thus, policymakers should adapt planning and development strategies to consider the intricate relationship between city population size and the health of older adults.

SPATIAL AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF PROVISION OF COMMERCIAL LEGAL SERVICES IN RUSSIAN CITIES

The article examines the relationship between the number of employees at law firms, or lawyers, and the provision of legal services in Russian cities. It aims to identify whether the increase in the number of lawyers leads to an enhanced level of legal services provision. In addition, it attempts to discern geographical patterns in the provision of legal services in Russia. To achieve these objectives, open data from the Federal Tax Service of Russia is utilized as the primary source of information. Linear regression is employed to estimate the hypothesized relationship, and data plotting and mapping are used to visualize it. The study demonstrates an overall positive square root relationship between the number of lawyers and the provision of legal services in cities, as well as a linear relationship between these variables in distinct city population size groups. It supports a widely held proposition about the pivotal role of the largest cities in the provision of services and also offers partial confirmation of the commonly accepted view about the positive impact of service concentration on their delivery. However, the study argues that there are multiple approaches to achieving a high level of legal services provision, with an increase in the number of lawyers being only one of the potential options. The findings of this research may serve to inform data-driven policymaking decisions of governmental bodies.

The carbon emission reduction effect and mechanism analysis of digital economy: Evidence of prefecture-level cities in China

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact and mechanisms of carbon emission reduction associated with digital economy development, utilizing data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China during the period of 2003 to 2019. The comprehensive index of digital economy development at the prefecture level is evaluated using the entropy method, followed by empirical analysis employing the dual fixed effect model. The findings confirm a significant improvement in urban carbon emission reduction resulting from the digital economy. Mechanism analysis reveals that the digital economy enhances the carbon emission reduction effect in cities by promoting urban green innovation and reducing energy consumption intensity. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the carbon reduction effect of digital economy development is influenced by factors such as city location, population size, and development type. By shedding light on the relationship between the digital economy and carbon emission reduction, this study offers valuable insights into the mechanisms through which the digital economy contributes to sustainable urban development.

Compound hot and ozone extremes in urban China

Hot extremes and ozone pollution have long been known detrimental to public health, but until very recently disproportionate health impacts from their joint occurrence—compound hot and ozone extremes (CHOEs)—have not been sufficiently aware of. Based on high-quality observations of air temperature and surface ozone concentration, we here examined the features of urban CHOEs and their dependence on city population and background climates. Results show the ozone-temperature slope (mO3-T) is significantly correlated with city population size, and the correlation is much weaker (0.38) in moister and cloudier cities (Cluster I) as opposed to that (0.69) in drier and sunnier cities (Cluster II). Larger cities are more susceptible to CHOEs with Cluster II megacities (population > 10 million) registering about 8 days of CHOEs during ozone season but ∼3 days for small cities (population ≤ 1 million). Most cities experience elevated risks of CHOEs in urban areas relative to surrounding rural areas, especially so for densely-populated cities and those located in drier and sunnier environments. This study emphasizes the importance and urgency of emission reduction to mitigate the health burden from not only hot extremes but also their hazardous compounding with surface ozone.

Does land market matter for urban energy efficiency? Empirical evidence from cities in China

Improving urban energy efficiency on the basis of cost-effectiveness is an important topic of universal concern across the world. The input cost has great influence on energy efficiency. Thus, as one of the important factors in the production progress, land price may exert an energy effect via affecting the urban industries. With a focus on land price levels and the variability, our study investigates the impact of land market on urban energy efficiency, based on the panel data of China's prefecture-level cities. Further, by exploring effects of the segment land markets, our study reveals the exact price features in land market that have driven the changes in energy efficiency of cities. The main results are: (a) Either of the price level and the price variability in urban land market has a positive net effect on energy efficiency. When price level and variability increase by 1%, urban energy efficiency respectively increases by 0.06% and 0.04%, and the effects vary with city's population size and geographic location; (b) An increase of land price level improves energy efficiency by optimizing industrial structure and reduces energy efficiency by weakening industrial production efficiency, while an increase in land price variability exerts a positive impact on energy efficiency by adjusting industrial structure; (c) The price level factor affecting urban energy efficiency is mainly the commercial-residential land prices, while the difference between commercial-residential and industrial land prices is the variability factor that affects energy efficiency.

The mechanism for selecting low carbon urban experimentation cases in the literature and its impact on carbon emission performance

Recently, low carbon urban experimentations have received increasing attention in dealing with climate change. As low carbon urban experimentations are the pilots to test low carbon practices, it is necessary to examine the factors influencing the case-selection mechanism in the low carbon urban experimentation literature and its impact on cases’ carbon emission performance. We developed hypotheses about the case-selection mechanism using economic, urban and other factors. We observed that the scholar proximity and population size of cities are positively related to their frequency to be selected as cases. The case frequency of low carbon urban experimentations in the literature is positively associated with their carbon emission performance. Thus, policymakers should pay attention to the lessons from frequently selected cases in the low carbon urban experimentation literature. As scholar promixty is positively associated with case selection in low carbon urban experimentation literature. Practitioners can promote the development of low carbon research institutions and scholars, which can help cities gain more low carbon development knowledge and increase their carbon emission efficiency in the end.

Public and private transportation in Chinese cities: impacts of population size, city wealth, urban typology, the built environment, and fuel price

The development of urban transportation is affected by city population size, wealth, urban typology, the built environment, and fuel price, and has significant implications for urban sustainability. We analyze data of 297 Chinese cities between 2017 and 2019 using both simple regressions to examine the relationships between metrics of public and private transportation and city size, and multiple regressions to examine the impacts of the above urban factors on public transit use and private vehicle number. Both public transit use and private vehicle number scale super-linearly with population and sub-linearly with gross regional product. We find that the impacts of population size, city wealth, the built environment, and fuel price on transportation vary across city groups (industrial, mixed-economy, and commercial cities). We find that the relationships between urban transportation metrics and their factors extracted from intra-city variations over time are different from those derived from pooling data of multiple cities over time, indicating the importance of choosing appropriate analyses to inform local policymaking. A key finding is that to reduce private vehicle ownership, enhancing land use diversity, increasing rail transit, and expanding taxi fleets are more effective than increasing density in already dense Chinese cities. Our findings improve understanding of the drivers of public and private transportation in urban China which are needed to promote sustainable growth of Chinese cities.

Does digital dividend matter in China's green low-carbon development: Environmental impact assessment of the big data comprehensive pilot zones policy

Currently, data is increasingly becoming a crucial production factor and strategic resource for economic development. However, there is no consensus on whether data plays a significant role in promoting city green development. This paper examines the effect and the mechanism of big data on carbon emission reduction based on a quasi-natural experiment of Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (BDCPZ) in China, using a difference-in-difference approach and combining panel data from 261 cities in China from 2010 to 2019. The study found that: (1) The policy of BDCPZ significantly reduced carbon emissions, which confirms the critical importance of the digital dividend in China's green development process. (2) We find the emission reduction effect of BDCPZ is achieved in three main ways: promoting industrial upgrading, improving energy use efficiency and increasing green TFP in manufacturing. (3) Further analysis reveals that the carbon emission reduction effect of BDCPZ varies depending on city population size, levels of manufacturing development, resource endowments, and pilot cities with low carbon related policies. This paper empirically confirms the digital dividend in city green transformation, provides evidence and policy guidance for the broad application of the digital economy in the field of green and low-carbon development, and enriches research in development economics and environmental economics. It helps to provide novel policy insights for the government to implement proactive policies of carbon reduction, and to build a diversified carbon reduction governance system to successfully achieve “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” targets.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use Change in Uyo Urban, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

The increasing population size of cities and the physical expansion of the built-up area beyond the city limits as well as rising demand for more land for various purposes induce changes in urban land-use. This study therefore evaluates the spatio-temporal changes of land uses in Uyo urban. The study utilizes Geographic Information System (GIS); where land use maps of Uyo were produced from Landsat ETM imagery of 2003, 2012 and 2021 using Erdas imagine and ArcGIS softwares. Post classification and change detection analysis for the three years was used to depict changes in identified land uses. The results indicate that in 2003 agricultural land use occupied an area of 37.307 sq.km while residential land use occupied an area of 50.494 sq.km. In 2012, agricultural land use reduced to 25.347 sq.km while residential land use increased to 62.879 sq.km. Furthermore, by 2021, agricultural lands use further indicated drastic reduction occupying an area of 6.207 sq.km while residential land use indicated remarkable increase to 73.469 sq.km. Between 2003 and 2012, residential land uses increased by 8.88 sq.km translating into 15.4 per cent within 10 years and 1.5 per cent per annum; whereas agricultural land use decreased annually by -2.5 per cent. Other land uses such as institutional, commercial and transportation land uses also increased, while forest and water bodies also decreased within the years. It is recommended that periodic monitoring of the land use should be encouraged to ascertain the pattern of changes in order to curtail negative impacts on the environment.

The population sizes of Mexican cities follow a power-law distribution

ABSTRACT Geography, for example because of the presence of rivers, ravines, or peaks, can subdivide a city. These subdivisions raise the question of identifying the area occupied by the city, of deciding whether or not they are aggregates of distinct built-up areas, and whether or not geographical separations are merely asperities in a certain continuum of built-up areas. The city as a union of administrative units allows for jurisdictional practices, but for public policy in health for example, identification by built-up areas is more operational. The study of urban populations thus requires that cities be circumscribed on objective criteria. Circumscribing a city requires knowledge of commuting flows, but in the absence of this piece of information, circumscribing it relies on the fact that it is made up of close built-up areas. This is reflected in the intersection of the convex envelopes of the spatial extent of these built-up areas. The algorithm treats coordinates of the vertices of polygons encompassing built-up areas provided by the Census Bureau for the United States or the National Institute of Statistics and Geography for Mexico. It allows for computing whether convex hulls of polygons intersect or not. If they do, then the built-up areas circumscribed by these polygons are part of the same city. The result is that cities now reflect the geographic extent of urban areas rather than their administrative areas. With this delineation method applied to Mexico’s 2020 census data, the population sizes of urban areas with at least 2,126 inhabitants follow a power law, with exponent 0.954 (standard deviation = 0.016), whereas this is no longer the case when considering only the administrative extents of cities with more than 15,000 inhabitants.

Political Centralization, Federalism, and Urbanization: Evidence from Australia

AbstractThe dominance of capital cities (urban primacy) is an enduring characteristic of Australian states. There has been limited empirical research examining the drivers of primacy in states despite some being extreme examples of the phenomenon, both in magnitude and scale. In light of institutional theories of settlement patterns, we developed a profile of Australian urbanization using a century of time-series data, descriptive statistics, and an empirical model of city populations. In Australian states high measures of primacy have endured with little evidence of disruption despite the enormous size of these states, their wealth, and population growth – factors associated with declining and low primacy. Statistically, state capital city status has a significant effect on city population size variation, with results suggesting primacy in states is in part a product of Australian federalism. This contrasts with views that suggest Australia’s scarcity of large non-capital cities is due to isolation, low population, and environmental determinism. The findings in this paper have major implications relative to national and/or state strategies that aim to decentralize population away from the primate cities.

Global city densities: Re-examining urban scaling theory

Understanding scaling relations of social and environmental attributes of urban systems is necessary for effectively managing cities. Urban scaling theory (UST) has assumed that population density scales positively with city size. We present a new global analysis using a publicly available database of 933 cities from 38 countries. Our results showed that (18/38) 47% of countries analyzed supported increasing density scaling (pop ~ area) with exponents ~⅚ as UST predicts. In contrast, 17 of 38 countries (~45%) exhibited density scalings statistically indistinguishable from constant population densities across cities of varying sizes. These results were generally consistent in years spanning four decades from 1975 to 2015. Importantly, density varies by an order of magnitude between regions and countries and decreases in more developed economies. Our results (i) point to how economic and regional differences may affect the scaling of density with city size and (ii) show how understanding country- and region-specific strategies could inform effective management of urban systems for biodiversity, public health, conservation and resiliency from local to global scales.200 word statement of contribution: Urban Scaling Theory (UST) is a general scaling framework that makes quantitative predictions for how many urban attributes spanning physical, biological and social dimensions scale with city size; thus, UST has great implications in guiding future city developments. A major assumption of UST is that larger cities become denser. We evaluated this assumption using a publicly available global dataset of 933 cities in 38 countries. Our scaling analysis of population size and area of cities revealed that while many countries analyzed showed increasing densities with city size, about 45% of countries showed constant densities across cities. These results question a key assumption of UST. Our results suggest policies and management strategies for biodiversity conservation, public health and sustainability of urban systems may need to be tailored to national and regional scaling relations to be effective.

RANGIRANJE HRVATSKIH GRADOVA PREMA HELLWIGOVOJ METODI INFORMACIJSKOG KAPACITETA U DIMENZIJI SMART ECONOMY

The main objective of this research is to determine whether the size of the city by population is a prerequisite for better economic development and ranking of Croatian cities based on the weighted average z-score of smart economy indicators related to entrepreneurial potential, tourism, information comunication technology [ICT] and research and development [R&D] sector. The sample for this research consists of 127 Croatian cities and ten smart economy indicators. The Hellwig's information capacity method uses only statistically significant indicators, on the basis of which the weights are determined when creating the Smart Economy Indeks. The results of the analyses suggest that the number of positively ranked cities decreases as the city population size decreases: 100 % large cities are positively rated, 48 % medium cities and 6 % small cities.

Temporal changes in the urban system in South Korea

South Korea has experienced a dramatic economic change since the Korean War. Its economic structure has developed from one with a primary industry-centric in the 1950s to a manufacturing or service-centric structure. The economic development has been accompanied by a steady growth of population specifically in urban areas. In addition, economic development also has triggered changes in its population distribution and, ultimately, its urban system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the urban system in South Korea using two approaches, which are primacy indices and spatial interaction indices. While the primacy indices focus on the population sizes of cities, an investigation with spatial interaction allows an examination of linkages among cities. The results show that the Korean urban system had a primacy structure in which Seoul dominates until the 1990s, after which this primacy structure of the city weakened. The spatial interaction patterns show that many cities have developed in large metropolitan areas and are highly interconnected with each other. But this new development has dominantly occurred still in the Seoul metropolitan area. These results present that urban developments have been highly concentrated in peripheral areas of Seoul that are still in the Seoul metropolitan area, with the dominance of the metropolitan area getting stronger over time.

The impact of information and communication technology on carbon emissions in China: spatial effect and mechanism discussion.

Information and communication technology (ICT) has exerted a great impact on the socio-economic development; however, this development has come with some potential influence on climate change. The academics are divided over this issue; some argue that ICT has contributed to carbon reduction, while others consider that ICT has increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Undoubtedly, the existing literature abounds in the relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions, but little attention has been paid to the spillover effect of ICT and CO2 emissions, especially in developing countries. Hence, with the panel data of 285 China's prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2018, this study innovatively discusses the spatial and mechanism effects of ICT on CO2 emissions, further exploring the heterogeneous impact of ICT on CO2 emissions from multiple perspectives. The empirical results confirm the positive relationship between ICT and CO2 emissions and identify the spatial spillover effect in the relationship. Furthermore, notably, the intermediary effect of energy consumption on the impact of ICT on CO2 emissions is identified. Finally, due to the differences in the geographical position, population size, and urban agglomeration of prefecture-level cities in China, the impact of ICT on CO2 emissions varies in different cities. The findings not only contribute to advancing the existing literature but also have a significant and targeted policy guiding significance for the cities to maximize the favorable influences of ICT and promote the low-carbon transformation of the whole society.

The median age of a city’s residents and population density influence COVID 19 mortality growth rates: policy implications

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 is an infectious virus, which has generated a global pandemic. Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate its population, inaugurating the program on December 20, 2020. The objective of the current study is to investigate the projected daily COVID19 mortality growth rate with higher median age and population size of cities under two scenarios: with and without the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccination against the SAR-COV2 virus.MethodsThis study employs a panel data-set. We follow the COVID19 mortality growth rate in each of the 173 Israeli cities and towns starting from March 21, 2020 (10 days after the first documentation of COVID19 cases in Israel) until September 21, 2021, where the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccinations were available starting from December 20, 2020.ResultsReferring to the median age of municipal residents, findings suggest that the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccinations attenuate the rise in anticipated daily mortality growth rate for cities and towns in which the median population age is 30 years old (the range in median age among the residents in the municipalities surveyed is 11–41 years). Moreover, referring to population size of cities, findings demonstrate that while under the scenario without vaccination, the daily mortality growth rate is anticipated to rise, under a comparable scenario with vaccination, daily mortality growth rate is anticipated to drop.ConclusionsIn crowded cities, where the median age is high, two perspectives of early and intensive public policy interventions are clearly required. The first perspective is extensive medical treatment, namely, extension of availability of medical physical and online services; dispensing designated medications; expansion of hospitalization facilities and information services particularly to susceptible populations. All measures will be taken with attention to age accessibility of these means. The second perspective is prevention via establishment of testing and vaccination complexes; elevation of dedicated health services, generating selective lockdowns; education for increasing awareness to social distancing, wearing masks and other preventive means.

Scaling of urban amenities: generative statistics and implications for urban planning

Cities have been extensively studied as complex adaptive systems over the last 50 years. Recently, several empirical studies and emerging theory provided support for the fact that many different urban indicators follow general consistent statistical patterns across countries, cultures and times. In particular, total personal income, measures of innovation, crime rates, characteristics of the built environment and other indicators have been shown to exhibit non-linear power-law scaling with the population size of functional cities. Here, we show how to apply this type of analysis inside cities to establish universal patterns in the quantity and distribution of urban amenities such as restaurants, parks, and universities. Using a unique data set containing millions of amenities in the 50 largest US metropolitan areas, we establish general non-linear scaling patterns between each city’s population and many different amenities types, the small-area statistics of their spatial abundance, and the characteristics of their mean distance to each other. We use these size-specific statistical findings to produce generative models for the expected amenity abundances of any US city. We then compute the deviations observed in given cities from this statistical many-amenity model to build a characteristic signature for each urban area. Finally, we show how urban planning can be guided by these systemic quantitative expectations in the context of new city design or the identification of local deficits in service provision in existing cities.

IS COVID-19 A PANDEMIC OF INEQUALITY AND URBANIZATION?

Aim of the study: The aim is to determine whether inequality and urbanization are factors influencing the development of this pandemic. Design/methodology: The methodology of the study is to analyse infection data of eight individual countries that are available from the World Health Organization and determine if per capita GDP, population, population density, air travel and population size of the capital cities are factors affecting the spread of the pandemic. Findings: The study results show that socioeconomics and air travel are factors which enhance the spread of infection. Originality/value: The study is an important contribution to understanding the development of the pandemic and factors enhancing the spread of infection and can assist governments to plan control measures for future pandemics. Key words: Social inequality, urbanization, infection control, infection rates, disease transmission Paper type: Research paper