Population Registry Data Research Articles

Global, regional, and national drowning trends from 1990 to 2021: Results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Drowning is a preventable public health concern that burdens emergency care systems globally. This study comprehensively evaluated fatal drowning patterns across population, time, and geography from 1990 to 2021 to inform effective prevention strategies. Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study framework and standardized estimation methods, the study analyzed global and regional drowning burden in terms of mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), based on population registry data and drowning-related epidemiological covariates. Global drowning incidents decreased by 33.67% from 1990 to 2021. The drowning incidence rate and mortality rate declined from 24.20 and 9.68 per 100,000 in 1990 to 10.85 and 3.48 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. Years of life lost and DALYs rates due to drowning also decreased significantly, from 715.80 and 718.69 per 100,000 in 1990 to 197.64 and 198.92 per 100,000 in 2021. Regionally, East Asia had the highest drowning mortality (27.15% of global deaths), while the high-income Asia Pacific region experienced the highest incidence rate (21.38 per 100,000). South Asia had the greatest number of drowning deaths (75,639). Tropical Latin America showed the largest incidence decline, while high-income Asia Pacific exhibited increasing trends. Drowning disproportionately affected children under 5 and the elderly in most regions. While global drowning rates have declined, progress varies across regions. To improve prevention, focus should target low-income/middle-income countries and vulnerable populations like children and the elderly. Increased investment in safety education and rescue resources is vital to address their disproportionate risks.

P-317 Risk of endometrial polyps and hyperplasia after tamoxifen treatment in women with breast cancer: a population-based study in Taiwan

Abstract Study question This study aimed to examine the association between tamoxifen treatment and incident risks of uterine disease among breast cancer patients in Taiwan. Summary answer We found tamoxifen treatment group may have greater risk of endometrial polyps and hyperplasia than unexposured group after adjusting for age and body mass index. What is known already In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) breast cancer treatment trail reported that the women continue tamoxifen up to 10 years, compared with 5 years may reduce breast cancer recurrence and mortality rate. However, tamoxifen use has been reported to be associated with the cumulative risk of subsequently endometrial cancer during 5–14 years was 3.1%. Specifically, several Western studies have showed that the high incidence of endometrial cancer in breast cancer survivors with tamoxifen treatment. Study design, size, duration We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based data from Taiwan Cancer Registry and the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), and the National Population Registry Data set from 2011 to 2020. Participants/materials, setting, methods A total 138,934 newly diagnosed breast cancer female patients with age greater than 18 years old were included. We further used a 1-to-1 propensity score matching to generate comparable exposure and un-exposure groups. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the research question. All statistical analysis was performed using SAS version 9.4, and p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant Main results and the role of chance Incidence rate ratio (IRR) to compare incidence rate of uterine disease between tamoxifen treatment groups and unexposed group, adjusting for age and BMI. Our results showed that IRR were 1.36, 0.33, 3.73, 0.63, endometrial polyps, endometrial carcinoma, endometrial hyperplasia and uterine carcinosarcoma, respectively. This study found possible correlations between tamoxifen exposure with endometrial polyps and hyperplasia among breast cancer. During the 10-year study period, tamoxifen group did not significantly increase the risk of endometrial cancer in breast cancer survivors at aged 40 and over. Limitations, reasons for caution Our cohort study with 10-year period is its short study period, Tamoxifen group did not significantly increase the risk of endometrial cancer. Wider implications of the findings This cohort study found higher endometrial polyps and hyperplasia incidence rates among women with breast cancer who received tamoxifen women than those not treated with tamoxifen. Results of this study suggest that clinicians should consider the risk of uterine disease among tamoxifen use and counsel patients accordingly. Trial registration number KMUHIRB-G(II)20200217

The epidemiology of major depression among adults in Norway: an observational study on the concurrence between population surveys and registry data – a NCDNOR project

BackgroundMental health problems, and major depression in particular, are important public health issues. Following trends in the prevalence of major depression is difficult because of the costs and complications of diagnostic interviews and general population self-report health surveys. Scandinavian countries, however, have several central, population-based health registries. We aimed to investigate how well these registries capture the epidemiology of major depression in the population.MethodsIn two Norwegian regional surveys of general population health, each repeated after 10 years, responders were asked to report depressive symptoms using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL) or the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Data were linked to three central health registries capturing contact with primary care, specialist care and prescriptions for antidepressants, to investigate how well these registries reflected self-reported depressive symptoms.ResultsMost responders scored low on Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), but 10% and 13%, respectively, scored above cut-off, with only minor changes between the two survey times. Females scored higher than males. Older people scored lower than younger, and a social gradient was visible. Around 12% of those who scored above the cut-off on either scale were recorded in the central health registries during the following year. This correlation was highest in primary care data, followed by prescription data and lowest in specialist care. Females were more often recorded in registries (p < 0.001), as were younger people (p < 0.001).ConclusionsThere was a strong association between scores on screening for major depression in the general population surveys and being recorded in central health registries. There was a low sensitivity of these registries. and there was some variation in how sensitive the central health registries were in picking up depression, especially for males and older people. However, the stability of the measures over time suggests we may get an impression of the prevalence of major depression in the general population by using data from the central health registries. A combination of primary care data, prescription data and specialist care data have a higher sensitivity.

Sinonasal cancer incidence in Lombardy, Italy, 2008-20.

Epithelial sinonasal cancers (SNC) are rare tumours with recognized associations with known/suspected occupational carcinogens (wood/leather dust, nickel/chromium compounds and formaldehyde). In Italy, a national SNC registry organized as a network of regional registries was established by law in 2008. To describe SNC time trends, occupational exposures and geographical distribution in Lombardy, North-West Italy, based on population registry data (2008-20). The Lombardy SNC Registry records epithelial SNCs using various sources. Interviews to collect occupational history are performed using a standardized questionnaire. Using several standard populations, we calculated yearly crude and age-standardized rates (ASRs per 100,000 person-years). Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) at municipality level were calculated, and Bayesian models were fitted to produce smoothed SIR maps. We recorded 827 cases (553 men, 274 women). Crude (world standardized) ASRs were 0.9 (0.4) in men and 0.4 (0.2) in women, with no time trends. Interviews were obtained for 485 (88%) men and 223 (81%) women. Among men, 217 (45%) had been exposed to occupational carcinogens (wood/leather dust: 150/65 cases, 31%/13%), while only 36 women (16%) were exposed. Among 201 men with adenocarcinoma, exposure to wood/leather dust occurred in 103/50 cases (75%/50%). Areas with elevated SIRs associated with leather dust were found in the Western areas. Exposure to wood dust was more widespread. This study found a high frequency of occupational exposures (wood and leather dust), particularly in men with SNC. Employment in shoe industries clustered in the Western part, while work in furniture industries was less spatially structured.

Disruption of hospital care during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic impacted socioeconomic groups differently: population based study using routine registration data

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, provision of non-COVID healthcare was recurrently severely disrupted. The objective was to determine whether disruption of non-COVID hospital use, either due to cancelled, postponed, or forgone care, during the first pandemic year of COVID-19 impacted socioeconomic groups differently compared with pre-pandemic use.MethodsNational population registry data, individually linked with data of non-COVID hospital use in the Netherlands (2017–2020). in non-institutionalised population of 25–79 years, in standardised household income deciles (1 = low, 10 = high) as proxy for socioeconomic status. Generic outcome measures included patients who received hospital care (dichotomous): outpatient contact, day treatment, inpatient clinic, and surgery. Specific procedures were included as examples of frequently performed elective and acute procedures, e.g.: elective knee/hip replacement and cataract surgery, and acute percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). Relative risks (RR) for hospital use were reported as outcomes from generalised linear regression models (binomial) with log-link. An interaction term was included to assess whether income differences in hospital use during the pandemic deviated from pre-pandemic use.ResultsHospital use rates declined in 2020 across all income groups. With baseline (2019) higher hospital use rates among lower than higher income groups, relatively stronger declines were found for lower income groups. The lowest income groups experienced a 10% larger decline in surgery received than the highest income group (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87 – 0.93). Patterns were similar for inpatient clinic, elective knee/hip replacement and cataract surgery. We found small or no significant income differences for outpatient clinic, day treatment, and acute PCI.ConclusionsDisruption of non-COVID hospital use in 2020 was substantial across all income groups during the acute phases of the pandemic, but relatively stronger for lower income groups than could be expected compared with pre-pandemic hospital use. Although the pandemic’s impact on the health system was unprecedented, healthcare service shortages are here to stay. It is therefore pivotal to realise that lower income groups may be at risk for underuse in times of scarcity.

Inequalities in healthcare use during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to reductions in non-COVID related healthcare use, but little is known whether this burden is shared equally. This study investigates whether reductions in administered care disproportionately affected certain sociodemographic strata, in particular marginalised groups. Using detailed medical claims data from the Dutch universal health care system and rich full population registry data, we predict expected healthcare use based on pre-pandemic trends (2017 – Feb 2020) and compare these expectations with observed healthcare use in 2020 and 2021. Our findings reveal a 10% decline in the number of weekly treated patients in 2020 and a 3% decline in 2021 relative to prior years. These declines are unequally distributed and are more pronounced for individuals below the poverty line, females, older people, and individuals with a migrant background, particularly during the initial wave of COVID-19 hospitalisations and for middle and low urgency procedures. While reductions in non-COVID related healthcare decreased following the initial shock of the pandemic, inequalities persist throughout 2020 and 2021. Our results demonstrate that the pandemic has not only had an unequal toll in terms of the direct health burden of the pandemic, but has also had a differential impact on the use of non-COVID healthcare.

A comparison of cohorts of children with cerebral palsy from a population register and hospital admission data: A data linkage study.

Administrative health data, such as hospital admission data, are often used in research to identify children/young people with cerebral palsy (CP). To compare sociodemographic, clinical details and mortality of children/young people identified as having CP in either a CP population registry or hospital admission data. We identified two cohorts of children/young people (birth years 2001-2010, age at study end or death 2 months to 19 years 6 months) with a diagnosis of CP from either (i) the New South Wales (NSW)/Australian Capital Territory (ACT) CP Register or (ii) NSW hospital admission data (2001-2020). Using record linkage, these data sources were linked to each other and NSW Death, Perinatal, and Disability datasets. We determined the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of CP diagnosis in hospital admission data compared with the NSW/ACT CP Register (gold standard). We then compared the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and mortality of the two cohorts available through record linkage using standardised mean difference (SMD). There were 1598 children/young people with CP in the NSW/ACT CP Register and 732-2439 children/young people with CP in hospital admission data, depending on the case definition used. The sensitivity of hospital admission data for diagnosis of CP ranged from 0.40-0.74 and PPV 0.47-0.73. Compared with children/young people with CP identified in the NSW/ACT CP Register, a greater proportion of those identified in hospital admission data (one or more admissions with G80 case definition) were older, lived in major cities, had comorbidities including epilepsy, gastrostomy use, intellectual disability and autism, and died during the study period (SMD > 0.1). Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics differ between cohorts of children/young people with CP identified using a CP register or hospital admission data. Those identified in hospital admission data have higher rates of comorbidities and death, suggesting some may have progressive conditions and not CP. These differences should be considered when planning and interpreting research using various data sources.

Making sense of linguistic diversity in Helsinki, Finland: The timespace of affects in the linguistic landscape

AbstractThis article explores the spatiotemporal and affective qualities of linguistic landscapes at three linguistically diverse neighborhoods in Helsinki, Finland. The three sites were selected for qualitative fieldwork using a method that combines social media and population registry data with quantitative measures of diversity and spatial analytics. The article demonstrates how each site is characterized by its own distinct affective atmosphere, which is discursively construed and made sense of through references to other places and times. The timespace analysis of affects provides conceptual and methodological tools that allow analyzing the change and circulation of social meanings in the landscape, as well as differences in these aspects across settings.

Incidence rates of treated mental disorders before and during the COVID-19 pandemic—a nationwide study comparing trends in the period 2015 to 2021

BackgroundThere is a concern that exposure to psychosocial stressors during the COVID-19 pandemic may have led to a higher incidence of mental disorders. Thus, this study aimed to compare trends in incidence rates of depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and eating disorders in primary- and specialist health care before (2015–2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021).MethodsWe used aggregated population registry data to calculate incidence rates of mental disorders from primary- (The Norwegian Control and Payment of Health Reimbursements Registry (KUHR)) and specialist (The Norwegian Patient Registry (NPR)) health care. The analyses included all Norwegian residents aged 18–65 during the study period. Incident cases were defined as having no previous registration with the same mental disorder in KUHR (from 2006) or NPR (from 2008). We used linear prediction models and mean models to compare incidence rates and test trends before and during the pandemic.ResultsDuring the pandemic, the incidence rates among women were higher or as predicted for OCD in specialist health care and for eating disorders in both primary- and specialist health care. These findings were strongest among women aged 18–24 years. Incidence rates for depression and phobia/OCD among both genders in primary health care and phobic anxiety disorders among both genders in specialist health care were lower or as predicted.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic may have led to more women needing treatment for OCD and eating disorders in the Norwegian population. The decreased incidence rates for some disorders might indicate that some individuals either avoided seeking help or had improved mental health during the pandemic.

Neurodevelopmental Disorders in Offspring Conceived via In Vitro Fertilization vs Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection

Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), the most common type of assisted reproductive technology (ART), might damage the sperm or embryo. The implications of male infertility and ICSI for the neurodevelopmental health of offspring remain unknown. To analyze the risks of neurodevelopmental disorders in offspring of couples with male or female infertility with or without ICSI use. This cohort study was conducted in Taiwan and used information collected from the national population registry data set, national birth data set, and national ART data set for all live singleton births from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2016. The follow-up period started from the date of birth until the diagnosis of a disorder or December 31, 2018, whichever occurred first. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2021, to August 1, 2022. Male or female infertility with or without ICSI. The outcome was the incidence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and developmental delay in offspring with ART conception. Taiwan's national population registry data set was used to identify ASD, ADHD, and developmental delay diagnosed in outpatient clinic and hospitalization records. The study included 1 575 971 singleton births (mean [SD] age, 5.87 [2.60] years; 819 389 boys [52.0%]), of whom 1 568 257 (99.5%) had natural conception, 2111 (0.1%) had ART conception with male infertility, and 5603 (0.4%) had ART conception with female infertility. The risks of ASD (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.61-3.84; P < .001) and developmental delay (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.54-2.39; P < .001) in offspring with ART conception and ICSI use were significantly higher than those in offspring with natural conception. The same results were found in offspring of couples with either male or female infertility and ICSI intervention. Results of this study suggest that male infertility was not associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders in offspring. In both male and female infertility groups, ICSI had unfavorable implications for the neurodevelopmental health of offspring in terms of increased risks of ASD and developmental delay.

Familial aggregation of the aging process: biological age measured in young adult offspring as a predictor of parental mortality.

Measures of biological age (BA) integrate information across organ systems to quantify "biological aging," i.e., inter-individual differences in aging-related health decline. While longevity and lifespan aggregate in families, reflecting transmission of genes and environments across generations, little is known about intergenerational continuity of biological aging or the extent to which this continuity may be modified by environmental factors. Using data from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study (JPS), we tested if differences in offspring BA were related to mortality in their parents. We measured BA using biomarker data collected from 1473 offspring during clinical exams in 2007-2009, at age 32 ± 1.1. Parental mortality was obtained from population registry data for the years 2004-2016. We fitted parametric survival models to investigate the associations between offspring BA and parental all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We explored potential differences in these relationships by socioeconomic position (SEP) and offspring sex. Participants' BAs widely varied (SD = 6.95). Among those measured to be biologically older, parents had increased all-cause mortality (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.13), diabetes mortality (HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.30), and cancer mortality (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.13). The association with all-cause mortality was stronger for families with low compared with high SEP (Pinteraction = 0.04) and for daughters as compared to sons (Pinteraction < 0.001). Using a clinical-biomarker-based BA estimate, observable by young adulthood prior to the onset of aging-related diseases, we demonstrate intergenerational continuity of the aging process. Furthermore, variation in this familial aggregation according to household socioeconomic position (SEP) at offspring birth and between families of sons and daughters proposes that the environment alters individuals' aging trajectory set by their parents.

Pathways into single motherhood, re-partnering, and trajectories of antidepressant medication purchases

Single motherhood is known to be distressing, and to be associated with poor mental health. However, less is known about the pathways into and out of single motherhood, or about the mental health trajectories of single mothers. We used total population registry data on Finnish women who experienced the life events of separation (616,762), widowhood (43,355), or child birth (515,756) during the 1995–2018 period while between the ages of 15–64. Single mothers were compared with women who experienced the same life event, but without becoming a single mother. The results for women who separated showed that among single mothers, there was a substantial increase in antidepressant use at the time of separation, and only a moderate decline after separation. Among women who experienced widowhood, those who had underage children initially had lower antidepressant use than women without children, but this gap narrowed in the post-widowhood period. In addition, single women experienced more unfavorable mental health trajectories than partnered women around the time they gave birth. Re-partnering was associated with more favorable mental health among all groups of single mothers. Given the growing prevalence of single-parent households, our results underscore the need for context-specific interventions to support single mothers’ mental health.

Sex-specific familial aggregation of cancers in Finland

Despite the fact that the effect of sex on the occurrence of cancers has been studied extensively, it remains unclear whether sex modifies familial aggregation of cancers. We explored sex-specific familial aggregation of cancers in a large population-based historical cohort study. We combined cancer and population registry data, inferring familial relationships from birth municipality-surname-sex (MNS) combinations. Our data consisted of 391,529 incident primary cancers in 377,210 individuals with 319,872 different MNS combinations. Cumulative sex-specific numbers of cancers were compared to expected cumulative incidence. Familial cancer risks were similar between the sexes in our population-wide analysis. Families with concordant cancer in both sexes exhibited similar sex-specific cancer risks. However, some families had exceptionally high sex-specific cumulative cancer incidence. We identified six families with exceptionally strong aggregation in males: three families with thyroid cancer (ratio between observed and expected incidence 184.6; 95% credible interval (95% CI) 33.1–1012.7, 173.4 (95% CI 65.4–374.3), and 161.4 (95% CI 29.6–785.7), one with stomach (ratio 14.4 (95% CI 6.9–37.2)), colon (ratio 15.5 (95% CI 5.7–56.3)) cancers and one with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (ratio 33.5 (95% CI 17.2–207.6)). Our results imply that familial aggregation of cancers shows no sex-specific preference. However, the atypical sex-specific aggregation of stomach cancer, colon cancer, thyroid cancer and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in certain families is difficult to fully explain with present knowledge of possible causes, and could yield useful knowledge if explored further.

Occurrence of malignant diseases in patients with multiple sclerosis: population-based MS Registry data

Among different comorbidities occurring in multiple sclerosis (MS), the presence of malignant diseases in these patients is of the particular importance. The aim of this study was to determine the malignant diseases burden in a whole cohort of patients with MS in the Belgrade region, based on the Belgrade population registry data. This study comprises 2725 MS patients from the MS Registry, which represents a source for all necessary demographic and clinical data. Firstly, the Registry was searched for all persons with MS who had cancer comorbidity, during the period 1996-2019. Diagnosis of cancer was validated by the patients' medical documentation. In order to investigate factors associated with the occurrence of any type of the cancer and/ or breast cancer only, in persons with MS, different logistic regression analyses were performed. A total of 64 persons with 69 malignant diseases were observed (prevalence 2.53%). The most frequent malignancies in males were skin cancer (50.0%) and in females, breast cancer (23.2%). The cumulative incidence of cancer comorbidity in persons with MS was 324.9 new cases per 100,000 person-years for the total population (137.6/100,000 in males and 403.6 per 100,000 in females). Comparison of cancer incidence rate between MS and general Belgrade population revealed lower risk for malignancy occurrence in the MS population in total (standardized incidence ratio, SIR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.16-1.49). Our findings demonstrate that MS patients in the Belgrade region have lower risk for the development of malignancy than age- and sex-matched general population.

The same, only different: Using physician billing data from four provincial payment systems to describe family physician practice patterns in Canada.

ObjectivesIn Canada physician payment systems and associated billing data vary across provinces. We used linked billing data to develop comparable measures of family physician (FP) service volume, continuity, and comprehensiveness in each of four provinces, with the goal of describing changing patterns over time, relevant to workforce planning policy. ApproachWe accessed linked population and physician registry data, vital statistics, physician billing data, hospital and emergency department records, and (where available) laboratory and prescription drug records in four Canadian provinces from 1996/7 to 2017/8. We tracked changes in primary care physician service volume (patient visits), continuity, and comprehensiveness over two decades, and explored the impacts of career stage and graduation cohort on patterns observed. We also quantified changes in the volume of services that required FP coordination, review, administration, and/or follow-up, reporting changes in service volume per-capita, per community-based family physician and per physician visit. ResultsVisit volume and continuity per provider fell over time in the four provinces examined. Visits increased with years in practice until mid-to-late-career and declined into end-of-career. We found no relationship between graduation cohort and practice volume, continuity, or comprehensiveness of care. Over this time period, the number of FPs per-capita has grown, but the number in comprehensive, community-based practice has remained constant. While primary care visits have declined, the number of prescriptions, lab tests, emergency department visits, and specialist visits per capita have all increased. When expressed per community-based FP, and particularly per community-based FP patient visit, the increases in workload range from 36.1% for lab tests to 55.0% for ED follow-up. Increases in service volume are greatest among patients ages 80 and older, a rapidly-growing population segment. ConclusionLinked data capturing changes in practice patterns and workload suggest that even with an increasing per-capita supply of family physicians, additional resources will be needed to ensure all patients can access comprehensive primary care. Information on the various roles family physicians fill and demographic change will strengthen workforce planning.

Estimating the impact of reducing the age of colorectal cancer screening on cancer incidence, mortality, and costs in Canada using OncoSim.

3526 Background: Organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs currently cover Canadians aged ≥50 at average-risk of developing CRC and have contributed to declining CRC incidence. Rising incidence of early-onset CRC in individuals &lt; 50 has led to lowering of the recommended screening start age to 45 rather than 50 in some jurisdictions. We used OncoSim, a publicly-available simulation tool, to model the effects of earlier screening initiation on Canadian CRC incidence, mortality and healthcare costs. Methods: OncoSim uses Canadian population and cancer registry data to simulate a representative sample of individuals from birth to death. We modeled four scenarios: no screening in average-risk individuals, screening initiation at age 50, initiation age lowered to 45 in 2022, and initiation age lowered to 40 in 2022. Each includes 32 million simulated participants. In the model, average-risk screening involves biennial FIT, available to all simulated participants regardless of family history with participation of 60% at the first recruitment attempt and 80% for repeat screening. Participants with a family history in all 4 scenarios were eligible for additional screening by colonoscopy every 5 years. Results: In our model, earlier screening yields reduced CRC incidence and mortality with increasing benefit over time. By 2051, screening initiation at age 45 or 40 reduces age-standardized incidence by 3.4% and 4.8% respectively, and age-standardized mortality by 3.3% and 4.6% respectively, compared to initiation at age 50. Screening initiation at age 45 yields 3,848 additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in 2051 at a cost of $9,350 per QALY gained and a 5% increase in colonoscopies performed. Initiation at age 40 yields 6,255 additional QALYs at $16,350 per QALY gained and a 9% increase in colonoscopies. The difference in screening costs compared to screening from age 50 is consistent year-to-year after 2024. In 2051 screening costs increase by $75mil and $155mil per year with initiation at ages 45 and 40 respectively, while costs of cancer management (including diagnosis, treatment, recurrence, palliative and end of life care) decrease by $42mil and $57mil respectively. Conclusions: Our model predicts that lowering the CRC screening initiation age for average-risk Canadians to 45 or 40 could reduce CRC incidence and mortality. Costs per QALY gained are high in the first few decades but decrease over time. Costs are modest after 30 years of screening compared to other life-preserving interventions such as dialysis. Our results suggest that lowering the screening age in Canada may be warranted, but further investigation is needed to assess capacity for increased colonoscopy demand.

Colorectal cancer screening with fecal immunochemical testing or primary colonoscopy: An analysis of health equity based on a randomised trial

SummaryBackgroundWe have addressed health equity attained by fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and primary colonoscopy (PCOL), respectively, in the randomised controlled screening trial SCREESCO conducted in Sweden.MethodsWe analysed data on the individuals recruited between March 2014, and March 2020, within the study registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02078804. Swedish population registry data on educational level, household income, country of birth, and marital status were linked to each 60-year-old man and woman who had been randomised to two rounds of FIT 2 years apart (n = 60,123) or once-only PCOL (n = 30,390). Furthermore, we geo-coded each study individual to his/her residential area and assessed neighbourhood-level data on deprivation, proportion of non-Western immigrants, population density, and average distance to healthcare center for colonoscopy. We estimated adjusted associations of each covariate with the colonoscopy attendance proportion out of all invited to respective arms; ie, the preferred outcome for addressing health equity. In the FIT arm, the test uptake and the colonoscopy uptake among the test positives were considered as the secondary outcomes.FindingsWe found a marked socioeconomic gradient in the colonoscopy attendance proportion in the PCOL arm (adjusted odds ratio [95% credibility interval] between the groups categorised in the highest vs. lowest national quartile for household income: 2·20 [2·01–2·42]) in parallel with the gradient in the test uptake of the FIT × 2 screening (2·08 [1·96–2·20]). The corresponding gradient in the colonoscopy attendance proportion out of all invited to FIT was less pronounced (1·29 [1·16–1·42]), due to higher proportions of FIT positives in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.InterpretationThe unintended risk of exacerbating inequalities in health by organised colorectal cancer screening may be higher with a PCOL strategy than a FIT strategy, despite parallel socioeconomic gradients in uptake.FundingThis work was supported by the 10.13039/501100002794Swedish Cancer Society under Grant 20 0719. CB and US provided economic support from the 10.13039/501100004359Swedish Research Council for Health, Working life, and Welfare under Grant 2020–00962.

Geographic distribution of malignant mesothelioma incidence and survival in Australia

ObjectivesTo understand the geographic distribution of and area-level factors associated with malignant mesothelioma incidence and survival in Australia. Materials and MethodsGeneralised linear models and Bayesian spatial models were fitted using population registry data. Area-level covariates were socioeconomic quintile, remoteness category and state or territory. The maximised excess events test was used to test for spatial heterogeneity. ResultsThere was strong evidence of spatial differences in standardised incidence rates for malignant mesothelioma but survival was uniformly poor. Incidence rates varied by state or territory and were lower in remote areas. Patterns in the geographic distribution of modelled incidence counts for malignant mesothelioma differed substantially from patterns of standardised incidence rates. ConclusionsGeographic variation in the modelled incidence counts of malignant mesothelioma demonstrates varying demand for diagnostic and management services. The long latency period for this cancer coupled with migration complicates any associations with patterns of exposure, however some of the geographic distribution of diagnoses can be explained by the location of historical mines and asbestos-related industries.

External validation of the American Joint Committee on Cancer melanoma staging system eighth edition using the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program.

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) melanoma staging system eighth edition (AJCC-8) was recently released to provide accurate staging reflecting advances in the treatment of melanoma. Using population registry data, this study independently validates and compares the prognostic performance of AJCC-8 to the seventh edition (AJCC-7). We extracted patient-, tumor-related, and survival data from the SEER-18 registry between 2010 and 2015. To assess overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for AJCC-7 and AJCC-8, we performed Kaplan-Meier analysis and computed cumulative hazard functions using Nelson-Aalen function. Of 126,408 individuals, 59,989 (47%) and 60,411 (48%) had available data for pathological and clinical-stage OS analysis, respectively. The 3-year OS for AJCC-7 among pathologically staged patients was: stage IA 97%, stage IB 95%, stage IIA 87%, stage IIB 76%, stage IIC 57%, stage IIIA 86%, stage IIIB 69%, stage IIIC 50%, and stage IV 24%. The 3-year OS for AJCC-8 patients was similar but was 56% for stage IIIC and 30% for stage IIID. Stage IV individuals with an elevated LDH had worse OS and CSS at all measured time-points up to 60 months compared to those with a normal LDH. The discriminatory ability of AJCC-8 and AJCC-7 appear comparable. Changes in AJCC-8 identified stage IIID as a poor prognostic subgroup among stage III patients and elevated LDH in stage IV. However, patients with advanced T-stage, node-negative tumors experienced worse survival compared to those with earlier T-stage, node-positive tumors, and the results of ongoing trials should inform adjuvant therapy in this subset of patients.

Drinking cultures and socioeconomic risk factors for alcohol and drug use disorders among first- and second-generation immigrants: A longitudinal analysis of Swedish population data

BackgroundFew longitudinal studies investigate predictors of substance use incidence among immigrants. The current study describes substance use disorders in immigrants to Sweden, focusing on drinking culture in the country of origin and socioeconomic status (SES), and how these intersect with generational status to influence risk. MethodsUsing pseudonymized Swedish population registry data, we track onset of alcohol use disorder and drug use disorder in a longitudinal study of 815,778 first-generation immigrants and 674,757 second-generation immigrants from 64 countries over a 6-year period. Cox regression analysis estimated risks of alcohol and drug use disorders in second-generation immigrants compared to first-generation, and moderation analyses assessed interactions of generational status with country-of-origin per capita alcohol consumption and SES. ResultsImmigrants and second-generation immigrants originating from countries with high levels of alcohol consumption had higher risks for alcohol and drug use disorders. Immigrants with high SES had lower risks for alcohol and drug use disorders. The interaction between generational status and country-of-origin alcohol consumption was significant for drug use disorder (not for alcohol use disorder), with drug use disorder risk for second-generation immigrants being highest for those from countries with the lowest level of country-of-origin per capita alcohol consumption. The interaction between generational status and SES was significant for alcohol use disorder, with low-SES second-generation immigrants showing markedly higher risk than first-generation immigrants with comparable SES. ConclusionsAmong immigrants in Sweden, second-generation immigrants are at increased risk of developing alcohol and drug use disorders, particularly if they have lower SES. Policy and community attention to these high-risk subgroups in immigrant communities is warranted.