near-Earth Asteroid Population Research Articles

Seismology of rubble-pile asteroids in binary systems

ABSTRACT The mutual gravitational interaction of binary asteroids, which make up approximately 15 per cent of the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population, provides a continuous tidal force, creating ground motion. We explore the potential of kilometre-sized binary asteroids as targets for seismological studies of their interior structure. We use a numerical model wherein each body is constructed of discrete particles interacting via gravity and contact forces. The system's orbital properties are modelled based on those of typical binary NEAs: a secondary body orbits a primary body at a distance of a few to 10 primary radii, resulting in orbital periods of a few tens of hours. We varied the elastic moduli (stiffness) of the constituent particles and measured a strain of a few micrometres caused by the orbiting satellite. Over eight orbital periods, the acceleration of the strain vector along the primary body's equatorial axis indicates that tidally induced ground motion generated by a binary asteroid system is detectable by modern seismometers, like the instruments deployed on the InSight mission to Mars. Owing to the relatively short orbital period of the satellite – a mean of 25.8 h for known binary NEAs – only a modest mission lifetime would be required for a seismometer to adequately characterize an asteroid's interior through tidally induced deformation. Future deployment of seismometers on binary asteroids will allow for a detailed characterization of the structure of these objects.

Tidal Disruption of Near-Earth Asteroids during Close Encounters with Terrestrial Planets

Numerical modeling has long suggested that gravitationally bound (or so-called rubble-pile) near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) can be destroyed by tidal forces during close and slow encounters with terrestrial planets. However, tidal disruptions of NEAs have never been directly observed nor have they been directly attributed to any families of NEAs. Here we show population-level evidence for the tidal disruption of NEAs during close encounters with Earth and Venus. Debiased model distributions of NEA orbits and absolute magnitudes based on observations by the Catalina Sky Survey during 2005–2012 underpredict the number of NEAs with perihelion distances coinciding with the semimajor axes of Venus and Earth. A detailed analysis of the orbital distributions of the excess NEAs shows that their characteristics agree with the prediction for tidal disruptions, and they cannot be explained by observational selection effects or orbital dynamics. Accounting for tidal disruptions in evolutionary models of the NEA population partly bridges the gap between the predicted rate of impacts by asteroids with diameters of tens of meters and observed statistics of fireballs in the same size range.

The NEO Surveyor Near-Earth Asteroid Known Object Model

The known near-Earth object (NEO) population consists of over 32,000 objects, with a yearly discovery rate of over 3000 NEOs per year. An essential component of the next generation of NEO surveys is an understanding of the population of known objects, including an accounting of the discovery rate per year as a function of size. Using a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) reference model developed for NASA’s NEO Surveyor (NEOS) mission and a model of the major current and historical ground-based surveys, an estimate of the current NEA survey completeness as a function of size and absolute magnitude has been determined (termed the Known Object Model; KOM). This allows for understanding of the intersection of the known catalog of NEAs and the objects expected to be observed by NEOS. The current NEA population is found to be ∼38% complete for objects larger than 140 m, consistent with estimates by Harris & Chodas. NEOS is expected to catalog more than two-thirds of the NEAs larger than 140 m, resulting in ∼76% of NEAs cataloged at the end of its 5 yr nominal survey, making significant progress toward the US Congressional mandate. The KOM estimates that ∼77% of the currently cataloged objects will be detected by NEOS, with those not detected contributing ∼9% to the final completeness at the end of its 5 yr mission. This model allows for placing the NEOS mission in the context of current surveys to more completely assess the progress toward the goal of cataloging the population of hazardous asteroids.

Identifying parent bodies of meteorites among near-Earth asteroids

ABSTRACT Meteorites provide an important source of information about the formation and composition of asteroids, because the level of accuracy of studies and analyses performed in a laboratory cannot be achieved by any ground- or space-based observation. To better understand what asteroid types a meteorite represents, it is crucial to identify the body they originated from. In this paper, we aim to determine possible parent bodies for the known meteorite falls among the known population of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). By using the similarity criterion DN, based on geocentric quantities, we found 20 possible NEA–meteorite pairs. By performing additional numerical simulations of the backward dynamics, we found that 12 of these pairs may be associated with a possible separation event from the progenitor NEA, while the remaining 8 pairs appear to be ambiguous or random associations. The most interesting are the Pribram and Neuschwanstein meteorites, which are dynamically associated with (482488) 2012 SW20 with a common separation age dating back to about 20–30 kyr ago, and the Motopi Pan meteorite, which has three candidate parent bodies: (454100) 2013 BO73, 2017 MC3, and 2009 FZ4. The average time of separation between our meteorite list and the progenitor body appears to be about 10 kyr, a time consistent with what is expected from the collision frequency of small NEAs. Based on our results, we suggest that about 25 per cent of meteorites do not originate in the main belt, but mainly from little collision events happening between NEAs in the inner Solar system.

The low surface thermal inertia of the rapidly rotating near-Earth asteroid 2016 GE1

Context. Asteroids smaller than about 100 m in diameter are observed to rotate very fast, with periods often much shorter than the critical spin limit of 2.2 h. Some of these super-fast rotators can also achieve a very large semimajor axis drift induced by the Yarkovsky effect, which, in turn, is determined by internal and surface physical properties. Aims. We consider here a small super-fast-rotating near-Earth asteroid, designated as 2016 GE1. This object rotates in just about 34 s, and a large Yarkovsky effect has been determined from astrometry. By using these results, we aim to constrain the thermal inertia of the surface of this extreme object. Methods. We used a recently developed statistical method to determine the thermal properties of near-Earth asteroids. The method is based on the comparison between the observed and the modeled Yarkovsky effect, and the thermal conductivity (inertia) is determined via a Monte Carlo approach. Parameters of the Yarkovsky effect model are fixed if their uncertainty is negligible, modeled with a Gaussian distribution of the errors if they are measured, or deduced from general properties of the population of near-Earth asteroids when they are unknown. Results. Using a well-established orbit determination procedure, we determined the Yarkovsky effect on 2016 GE1 and confirm a significant semimajor axis drift rate. Using a statistical method, we show that this semimajor axis drift rate can only be explained by low thermal inertia values below 100 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2. We benchmarked our statistical method using the well-characterized asteroid Bennu and find that only knowing the semimajor axis drift rate and the rotation period is generally insufficient for determining the thermal inertia. However, when the statistical method is applied to super-fast rotators, we find that the measured Yarkovsky effect can be achieved only for very low values of thermal inertia: namely, 90% of the probability density function of the model outcomes is contained at values smaller than 100 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2. Conclusions. We propose two possible interpretations for the extremely low thermal inertia of 2016 GE1: a high porosity or a cracked surface, or a thin layer of fine regolith on the surface. Though both possibilities seem somewhat unexpected, this opens up the possibility of a subclass of low-inertia, super-fast-rotating asteroids.

Resonant mechanisms that produce near-Sun asteroids

ABSTRACT All near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) that reach sufficiently small perihelion distances will undergo a so-called super-catastrophic disruption. The mechanisms causing such disruptions are currently unknown or, at least, undetermined. To help guide theoretical and experimental work to understand the disruption mechanism, we use numerical simulations of a synthetic NEA population to identify the resonant mechanisms that are responsible for driving NEAs close to the Sun, determine how these different mechanisms relate to their dynamical lifetimes at small heliocentric distances and calculate the average time they spend at different heliocentric distances. Typically, resonances between NEAs and the terrestrial and giant planets are able to dramatically reduce the perihelion distances of the former. We developed an algorithm that scans the orbital evolution of asteroids and automatically identifies occurrences of mean motion and secular resonances. We find that most near-Sun asteroids are pushed to small perihelion distances by the 3:1J and 4:1J mean-motion resonances with Jupiter, as well as the secular resonances ν6, ν5, ν3, and ν4. The time-scale of the small-perihelion evolution is fastest for the 4:1J, followed by the 3:1J, whereas ν5 is the slowest. Approximately 7 per cent of the test asteroids were not trapped in a resonance during the latest stages of their dynamical evolution, which suggests that the secular oscillation of the eccentricity due to the Kozai mechanism, a planetary close encounter, or a resonance that we have not identified pushed them below the estimated average disruption distance.

Preliminary estimates of the Zwicky Transient Facility 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroid population completeness

Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are organized into five main classes: Amor, Apollo, Aten, Atira and 'Ayló'chaxnim. Asteroids belonging to the 'Ayló'chaxnim class are located entirely within the orbit of Venus making them difficult to detect by ground-based observatories. The first-known asteroid of this class, (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim, was discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) in 2020 January during a twilight search for asteroids at small solar elongations that ran between September 2019 and January 2020. Due to its large diameter of ∼2 km, the discovery of (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim is surprising because contemporary NEA population models predict a scarcity of asteroids of this size located inside the orbit of Venus. To compare the discovery of (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim by ZTF with the predictions of NEA population models, we estimated the ZTF survey completeness at detecting 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroids and the number of 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroids expected to have been discovered by simulating observations of synthetic 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroids. We find that the 'Ayló'chaxnim population completeness of the survey is ∼18% and there is only a 5% probability that a single 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroid would have been discovered. Given the small chance for (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim to have been discovered, its presence is either a statistical fluke or it implies that asteroid population models may need to be revised.

Constraining the Limitations of NEATM-like Models: A Case Study with Near-Earth Asteroid (285263) 1998 QE2

Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are a key test bed for investigations into planet formation, asteroid dynamics, and planetary defense initiatives. These studies rely on understanding NEA sizes, albedo distributions, and regolith properties. Simple thermal models are a commonly used method for determining these properties; however, they have inherent limitations owing to the simplifying assumptions they make about asteroid shapes and properties. With the recent collapse of the Arecibo Telescope and a decrease of direct size measurements, as well as future facilities such as LSST and NEO Surveyor coming online soon, these models will play an increasingly important role in our knowledge of the NEA population. Therefore, it is key to understand the limits of these models. In this work we constrain the limitations of simple thermal models by comparing model results to more complex thermophysical models, radar data, and other existing analyses. Furthermore, we present a method for placing tighter constraints on inferred NEA properties using simple thermal models. These comparisons and constraints are explored using the NEA (285263) 1998 QE2 as a case study. We analyze QE2 with a simple thermal model and data from both the NASA IRTF SpeX instrument and NEOWISE mission. We determine an albedo between 0.05 and 0.10 and thermal inertia between 0 and 425J m−2 s−1/2 K−1. We find that overall the simple thermal model is able to well constrain the properties of QE2; however, we find that model uncertainties can be influenced by topography, viewing geometry, and the wavelength range of data used.

The discovery and characterization of (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim, a kilometre sized asteroid inside the orbit of Venus

ABSTRACT Near-Earth asteroid population models predict the existence of bodies located inside the orbit of Venus. Despite searches up to the end of 2019, none had been found. We report discovery and follow-up observations of (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim, an asteroid with an orbit entirely interior to Venus. (594913) 'Ayló'chaxnim has an aphelion distance of ∼0.65 au, is ∼2 km in diameter and is red in colour. The detection of such a large asteroid inside the orbit of Venus is surprising given their rarity according to near-Earth asteroid population models. As the first officially numbered and named asteroid located entirely within the orbit of Venus, we propose that the class of interior to Venus asteroids be referred to as 'Ayló'chaxnim asteroids.

SHINeS: Space and High-Irradiance Near-Sun Simulator

We present SHINeS, a space simulator which can be used to replicate the thermal environment in the immediate neighborhood of the Sun down to a heliocentric distance r~0.06 au. The system consists of three main parts: the solar simulator which was designed and constructed in-house, a vacuum chamber, and the probing and recording equipment needed to monitor the experimental procedures. Our motivation for building this experimental system was to study the effect of intense solar radiation on the surfaces of asteroids when their perihelion distances become smaller than the semi-major axis of the orbit of Mercury. Comparisons between observational data and recent orbit and size-frequency models of the population of near-Earth asteroids suggest that asteroids are super-catastrophically destroyed when they approach the Sun. Whereas the current models are agnostic about the disruption mechanism, SHINeS was developed to study the mechanism or mechanisms responsible. The system can, however, be used for other applications that need to study the effects of high solar radiation on other natural or artificial objects.

ONGOING FOLLOW-UP NEA OBSERVATIONS IN UKRAINE AND CHINA USING RDS CCD TECHNIQUE

The current state of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) observations shows an annual increase in the number of newly discovered objects However, the frequency distribution of NEAs by size shows a sharp decrease in the number of objects with size less than 300 m, which contradicts the results of theoretical modeling of the NEA population. Considering definition of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA), only objects with diameters more than 140 m could pose catastrophic consequences to the Earth and mankind in general. But in the same time, impacts of smaller size objects could lead to significant consequences on local level and their large predicted number increases this probability. Due to their small size which results in faint apparent magnitude, such NEAs are discovered in a short interval of their close approach (CA) to the Earth, when their apparent magnitude are tending to be as bright as possible for a given size. This is not only facilitates the detection of such new objects but also increases their observability by small ground-based telescopes. However, apparent rate of motion during this time might exceed 10 deg d −1 making the observations challenging. The used Rotating-drift-scan CCD (RDS CCD) technique allows to get images of fast-moving objects as a point, that in turn to determine the coordinates of their image centers with sufficient astrometric precision. Obtained in current research project positions show errors in the range ± (0.2″ − 0.3″) in both coordinates with comparison both to JPL's HORIZONS 1 system and NEODyS-2 2 service. The part of observations was obtained around time moment of minimal distance to the Earth during current CA for newly discovered NEAs. Such observations are important to extend observed orbital arc for reliable improvement of their orbit determinations and reducing orbital uncertainty, so it will be possible to recover them in next apparitions.

Physical Characterization of Metal-rich Near-Earth Asteroids 6178 (1986 DA) and 2016 ED85

Abstract Metal-rich near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) represent a small fraction of the NEA population that is mostly dominated by S- and C-type asteroids. Because of this, their identification and study provide us with a unique opportunity to learn more about the formation and evolution of this particular type of bodies, as well as their relationship with meteorites found on Earth. We present near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic data of NEAs 6178 (1986 DA) and 2016 ED85. We found that the spectral characteristics of these objects are consistent with those of metal-rich asteroids, showing red slopes, convex shapes, and a weak pyroxene absorption band at ∼0.93 μm. The compositional analysis showed that they have a pyroxene chemistry of Fs40.6±3.3Wo8.9±1.1 and a mineral abundance of ∼15% pyroxene and 85% metal. We determined that these objects were likely transported to the near-Earth space via the 5:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter. Asteroid spectra were compared with the spectra of mesosiderites and bencubbinites. Differences in the NIR spectra and pyroxene chemistry suggest that bencubbinites are not good meteorite analogs. Mesosiderites were found to have a similar pyroxene chemistry and produced a good spectral match when metal was added to the silicate component. We estimated that the amounts of Fe, Ni, Co, and the platinum group metals present in 1986 DA could exceed the reserves worldwide.

Minimum perihelion distances and associated dwell times for near-Earth asteroids

ABSTRACT The observed near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population contains very few objects with small perihelion distances, say, $q \lesssim 0.2\, \mathrm{au}$. NEAs that currently have orbits with larger q might be hiding a past evolution during which they have approached closer to the Sun. We present a probabilistic assessment of the minimum q that an asteroid has reached during its orbital history. At the same time, we offer an estimate of the dwell time, that is, the time q has been in a specific range. We have re-analysed orbital integrations of test asteroids from the moment they enter the near-Earth region until they either collide with a major body or are thrown out from the inner Solar system. We considered a total disruption of asteroids at certain q as a function of absolute magnitude (H). We calculated the probability that an asteroid with given orbital elements and H has reached a q smaller than a given threshold value and its respective dwell time in that range. We have constructed a look-up table that can be used to study the past orbital and thermal evolution of asteroids as well as meteorite falls and their possible parent bodies. An application to 25 meteorite falls shows that carbonaceous chondrites typically have short dwell times at small q, whereas for ordinary chondrites it ranges from $10\, 000$ to $500\, 000$ yr. A dearth of meteorite falls with long dwell times and small minimum q supports a supercatastrophic disruption of asteroids at small q.

On the Dynamic Evolution of the Population of Near-Earth Asteroids

On the Dynamic Evolution of the Population of Near-Earth Asteroids

The population of near-earth asteroids revisited and updated

In this paper we update, extend, and improve upon the recent paper on Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population by Harris and D'Abramo (2015). We update the population estimate taking into account discoveries to August 3, 2020. Shortly after the previous paper was published, we identified a problem in our previous studies due to rounding off of absolute magnitude H by the Minor Planet Center to 0.1 magnitude that implicitly shifted our bin boundaries by 0.05 magnitude. Here we correct the problem by choosing H bin boundaries at 0.25–0.75 magnitude, rather than 0.00–0.50 magnitude thereby eliminating the round-off shift. We also introduce an updated model distribution of NEA orbits (Granvik et al. 2018) in our survey simulations. This new population model includes orbital distributions as a function of size, allowing us to test our presumption that distributions are homologous with respect to size. The change in distribution of orbits between that used by Harris and D'Abramo (2015) and the newer Granvik et al. (2018) distributions was substantially greater than the range over size given in the latter, but made almost no difference in population estimates, suggesting that the re-detection algorithm is robust and does not depend strongly on the detailed orbit distribution, and also validates our presumption of homologous distribution over size. For the current analysis, we have added ATLAS and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to our analysis. We have separately analyzed the re-detection ratio versus size (H magnitude) for each of four surveys (Catalina + Mt. Lemmon, Pan-STARRS, ATLAS and ZTF) to investigate any differences between the various systems and cadences, and found none of significance, thus again, the re-detection algorithm appears very robust and mostly independent of survey parameters. With these changes and more recent discovery statistics to 2020, we estimate the number of NEAs of absolute magnitude H < 17.75 (nominally D > 1 km) to be 940 ± 10. Following the updated population estimate, we examine more closely the rates of discovery of the largest NEAs (absolute magnitude H < 17.75, nominally diameter D > 1 km) to make a more detailed estimate of the numbers of these large objects that remain undiscovered. Lastly we use the distribution of albedos of NEAs from NEOWISE observations (Mainzer et al. 2011) to transform our population estimate from number versus H, N(<H), to number versus D, N(>D). Unfortunately this transformation depends substantially on only minor uncertainties in the albedo distribution, so N(>D) remains much less certain than N(<H).

Low thermal conductivity of the superfast rotator (499998) 2011 PT

Context.Asteroids with a diameter of up to a few dozen meters may spin very fast and complete an entire rotation within a few minutes. These small and fast-rotating bodies are thought to be monolithic objects because the gravitational force due to their small size is not strong enough to counteract the strong centripetal force caused by the fast rotation. This argument means that the rubble-pile structure is not feasible for these objects. Additionally, it is not clear whether the fast spin prevents dust and small particles (regolith) from being kept on their surface.Aims.We develop a model for constraining the thermal conductivity of the surface of the small, fast-rotating near-Earth asteroids. This model may suggest whether regolith is likely present on these objects.Methods.Our approach is based on the comparison of the measured Yarkovsky drift and a predicted value using a theoretical model that depends on the orbital, physical and thermal parameters of the object. The necessary parameters are either deduced from statistical distribution derived for near-Earth asteroids population or determined from observations with associated uncertainty. With this information, we performed Monte Carlo simulations and produced a probability density distribution for the thermal conductivity.Results.Applying our model to the superfast rotator asteroid (499998) 2011 PT, we find that the measured Yarkovsky drift can only be achieved when the thermal conductivityKof the surface is low. The resulting probability density function for the conductivity is bimodal, with two most likely values being around 0.0001 and 0.005 W m−1K−1. Based on this, we find that the probability thatKis lower than 0.1 W m−1K−1is at least 95%. This low thermal conductivity might indicate that the surface of 2011 PT is covered with a thermal insulating layer, composed of a regolith-like material similar to lunar dust.

A satellite orbit drift in binary near-Earth asteroids (66391) 1999 KW4 and (88710) 2001 SL9 — Indication of the BYORP effect

We obtained thorough photometric observations of two binary near-Earth asteroids (66391) Moshup = 1999 KW4 and (88710) 2001 SL9 taken from 2000 to 2019. We modeled the data and derived physical and dynamical properties of the binary systems. For (66391) 1999 KW4, we derived its mutual orbit's pole, semimajor axis and eccentricity that are in agreement with radar-derived values (Ostro et al., 2006. Science, 314, 1276–1280). However, we found that the data are inconsistent with a constant orbital period and we obtained unique solution with a quadratic drift of the mean anomaly of the satellite of −0.65 ± 0.16 deg./yr2 (all quoted uncertainties correspond to 3σ). This means that the semimajor axis of the mutual orbit of the components of this binary system, determined a = 2.548 ± 0.015 km by Ostro et al. (2006), increases in time with a mean rate of 1.2 ± 0.3 cm/yr.For (88710) 2001 SL9, we determined that the mutual orbit has a pole within 10° of (L,B) = (302∘,−73∘) (ecliptic coordinates), and is close to circular (eccentricity < 0.07). The data for this system are also inconsistent with a constant orbital period and we obtained two solutions for the quadratic drift of the mean anomaly: 2.8 ± 0.2 and 5.2 ± 0.2 deg./yr2, implying that the semimajor axis of the mutual orbit of the components (estimated a ~ 1.6 km) decreases in time with a mean rate of −2.8 ± 0.2 or −5.1 ± 0.2 cm/yr for the two solutions, respectively.The expanding orbit of (66391) 1999 KW4 may be explained by mutual tides interplaying with binary YORP (BYORP) effect (McMahon and Scheeres, 2010a. Icarus 209, 494–509). However, a modeling of the BYORP drift using radar-derived shapes of the binary components predicted a much higher value of the orbital drift than the observed one. It suggests that either the radar-derived shape model of the secondary is inadequate for computing the BYORP effect, or the present theory of BYORP overestimates it. It is possible that the BYORP coefficient has instead an opposite sign than predicted; in that case, the system may be moving into an equilibrium between the BYORP and the tides.In the case of (88710) 2001 SL9, the BYORP effect is the only known physical mechanism that can cause the inward drift of its mutual orbit.Together with the binary (175706) 1996 FG3 which has a mean anomaly drift consistent with zero, implying a stable equilibrium between the BYORP effect and mutual body tides (Scheirich et al., 2015. Icarus 245, 56-63), we now have three distinct cases of well observed binary asteroid systems with their long-term dynamical models inferred. They indicate a presence of all the three states of the mutual orbit evolution – equilibrium, expanding and contracting – in the population of near-Earth binary asteroids.

Target evaluation for near earth asteroid long-term mining missions

There are currently over 20,000 known Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and more are being discovered on a daily basis. Near earth asteroids are the small bodies whose orbits bring them to within 1.3 AU of the Sun, which makes each one a useful opportunity for science and commercial missions. Here we design and generate a trajectory database for mining mission planning by using a high-performance computing system. The database contains 6373 accessible NEA missions with maximum mission durations of 6 years in the 2030–2065 timeframe. The accessible asteroids’ statistical results show that about 55% of accessible NEAs can provide stay-time of over 4 years in a 6-year mission. A general mining mission architecture is then proposed, and missions are constructed by using the architecture and the database. The taxonomy results for accessible asteroids from major taxonomy systems are summarized, and the available resources on these asteroids are analysed based on the taxonomy information. For the first time, the entire NEA population is assessed realistically from the perspective of asteroid mining and retrievable mass from each asteroid is quantified. Suitable targets for mining water, PGMs and other resources (e.g. silicates) in the 2030–2065 timeframe are identified. For the asteroids without taxonomy information, we did two analyses: assuming i) they are all C-type and ii) all non-C-type. Based on these assumptions, most suitable targets for water and non-water resource mining are identified. These results can be used as guidance for future asteroid mission target selection.

Recoverability of Known Near-Earth Asteroids

Abstract This paper analyzes the current population of known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and presents statistics on the recoverability of NEAs with both targeted observation campaigns and all-sky surveys. For an asteroid to be observable at a future apparition, given the right geometry, the plane-of-sky uncertainty must be small enough to be covered by a telescope’s field of view and the asteroid must be brighter than the detector’s limiting magnitude. Since recoverability is a telescope-dependent property, we select two representative instruments that span a wide range of capability and availability: the 1.0 m I52 telescope of the Catalina Sky Survey and the Hyper Suprime-Cam of the 8.2 m Subaru telescope. Based on this choice, we classify asteroids as recoverable, potentially recoverable, and not recoverable depending on whether they could be detected with an I52-class telescope, only with a Subaru-class telescope, or with neither, respectively. Using these definitions, we find that the majority (90%) of NEAs with H &lt; 22 and most (93%) potentially hazardous asteroids are recoverable or potentially recoverable in the next 50 yr. When considering fainter asteroids down to H ≤ 28, about two-thirds of the NEA population and half of the low minimum-orbit intersection distance (MOID) asteroids (MOID ≤ 0.05 au) are either recoverable or potentially recoverable. As of 2019 October 13, the Sentry risk list includes 193 objects with an impact probability greater than 10−6 that are not recoverable. The fraction of NEAs and low-MOID NEAs that are not recoverable can be reduced by up to 47% and 43%, respectively, when incorporating statistical estimates of serendipitous recoveries by all-sky surveys.

New multi-part collisional model of the main belt: the contribution to near-Earth asteroids

Aims. We developed a six-part collisional evolution model of the main asteroid belt (MB) and used it to study the contribution of the different regions of the MB to the near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Methods. We built a statistical code called ACDC that simulates the collisional evolution of the MB split into six regions (namely Inner, Middle, Pristine, Outer, Cybele and High-Inclination belts) according to the positions of the major resonances present there (ν6, 3:1J, 5:2J, 7:3J and 2:1J). We consider the Yarkovsky effect and the mentioned resonances as the main mechanism that removes asteroids from the different regions of the MB and delivers them to the NEA region. We calculated the evolution of the NEAs coming from the different source regions by considering the bodies delivered by the resonances and mean dynamical timescales in the NEA population. Results. Our model is in agreement with the major observational constraints associated with the MB, such as the size distributions of the different regions of the MB and the number of large asteroid families. It is also able to reproduce the observed NEAs with H &lt; 16 and agrees with recent estimations for H &lt; 20, but deviates for smaller sizes. We find that most sources make a significant contribution to the NEAs; however the Inner and Middle belts stand out as the most important source of NEAs followed by the Outer belt. The contributions of the Pristine and Cybele regions are minor. The High-Inclination belt is the source of only a fraction of the actual observed NEAs with high inclination, as there are dynamical processes in that region that enable asteroids to increase and decrease their inclinations.