The failure of French Canadians to settle the Canadian west before 1900, when substantial numbers of anglophones and Europeans were migrating, is a long-standing puzzle. Historians have relied mainly on cultural differences to explain it. Using new individual-level data, we demonstrate that anglophones and francophones had very different personal characteristics, so that movement to the west was rarely economically attractive for francophones. However, large-scale migration into New England fitted French Canadians’ demographic and human capital profile. Even if the United States had imposed immigration restrictions by the 1880s, this would not likely have diverted many French Canadians westward. Introduction The almost complete absence of French Canadians among settlers of Western Canada at the end of the nineteenth century is striking. Had there been a substantial flow of francophone internal migrants to the Prairies and the Pacific coast, there would have been a significant francophone presence in 1914, instead of a proportionately shrinking minority in Manitoba, and only scattered pockets of French-speaking settlers elsewhere. This is one of the great mighthave-beens of Canadian history. Without much of a base established by the beginning of the twentieth century, there was little possibility for later chain migration of French Canadians to the West. By contrast, migrants from anglophone Canada, the U.K., the U.S., and parts of continental Europe, had put networks into place by 1900. At the time of Confederation (1867), virtually all of Canada’s population was located between the Atlantic Ocean and Lake Erie. By the early 1870s, control of all British territory west to the Pacific Ocean had passed to the new dominion, but the European-origin population 1 Norrie, “Rate of Settlement”. 2 Probably less than 20 percent of the population in western Canada in 1871 was of European origin (Urquhart and Buckley, Historical Statistics, p. 4). Population data from series A2-14. 3 Manitoba became a province in 1870, British Columbia in 1871. 2 remained almost entirely in the east. Western settlement, particularly of the Prairies, was very limited until the mid 1890s, and then accelerated rapidly during the Wheat Boom. In 1871, the total population of western Canada was only about 110,000, by 1891 about 350,000, with those of European origin highly concentrated in Manitoba and British Columbia. The population nearly doubled in the next decade, rising to almost 650,000, and more than doubled (to 1.75 million) between 1901 and 1911. Westerners were less than 3 percent of the total Canadian population in 1871, almost a quarter in 1911. Regional divisions in language and ethnicity have had a tremendous impact on a wide range of Canadian institutions, fuelling bitter disputes over language policies, the appropriate degree of centralization of political decision-making, and at least since 1960, the desirability of Canada remaining as a single nation-state. As total population increased and its regional composition shifted westward, the political weight of Canada’s French Canadian minority diminished. In 1867, Quebec was the only predominantly French-speaking province, but it was one province out of four. From 1905, the year when Alberta and Saskatchewan were separated from the North West Territories, Quebec was still the only predominantly French-speaking province, and it was one province out of nine. Despite the establishment of some French Canadian settlements in Manitoba prior to the 1860s, only about 5 percent of the white population of western Canada in 1901 spoke French as