Population-level Transmission Research Articles

Identification of bacterial determinants of tuberculosis infection and treatment outcomes: a phenogenomic analysis of clinical strains

Bacterial diversity could contribute to the diversity of tuberculosis infection and treatment outcomes observed clinically, but the biological basis of this association is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify associations between phenogenomic variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis and tuberculosis clinical features. We developed a high-throughput platform to define phenotype-genotype relationships in M tuberculosis clinical isolates, which we tested on a set of 158 drug-sensitive M tuberculosis strains sampled from a large tuberculosis clinical study in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. We tagged the strains with unique genetic barcodes in multiplicate, allowing us to pool the strains for in-vitro competitive fitness assays across 16 host-relevant antibiotic and metabolic conditions. Relative fitness was quantified by deep sequencing, enumerating output barcode read counts relative to input normalised values. We performed a genome-wide association study to identify phylogenetically linked and monogenic mutations associated with the in-vitro fitness phenotypes. These genetic determinants were further associated with relevant clinical outcomes (cavitary disease and treatment failure) by calculating odds ratios (ORs) with binomial logistic regressions. We also assessed the population-level transmission of strains associated with cavitary disease and treatment failure using terminal branch length analysis of the phylogenetic data. M tuberculosis clinical strains had diverse growth characteristics in host-like metabolic and drug conditions. These fitness phenotypes were highly heritable, and we identified monogenic and phylogenetically linked variants associated with the fitness phenotypes. These data enabled us to define two genetic features that were associated with clinical outcomes. First, mutations in Rv1339, a phosphodiesterase, which were associated with slow growth in glycerol, were further associated with treatment failure (OR 5·34, 95% CI 1·21-23·58, p=0·027). Second, we identified a phenotypically distinct slow-growing subclade of lineage 1 strains (L1.1.1.1) that was associated with cavitary disease (OR 2·49, 1·11-5·59, p=0·027) and treatment failure (OR 4·76, 1·53-14·78, p=0·0069), and which had shorter terminal branch lengths on the phylogenetic tree, suggesting increased transmission. Slow growth under various antibiotic and metabolic conditions served as in-vitro intermediate phenotypes underlying the association between M tuberculosis monogenic and phylogenetically linked mutations and outcomes such as cavitary disease, treatment failure, and transmission potential. These data suggest that Mtuberculosis growth regulation is an adaptive advantage for bacterial success in human populations, at least in some circumstances. These data further suggest markers for the underlying bacterial processes that contribute to these clinical outcomes. National Health and Medical Research Council/A∗STAR, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and the Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine.

Community-Wide Universal HIV Test and Treat Intervention Reduces Tuberculosis Transmission in Rural Uganda: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment reduces tuberculosis (TB) disease and mortality; however, the population-level impact of universal HIV-test-and-treat interventions on TB infection and transmission remain unclear. In a sub-study nested in the SEARCH trial, a community cluster-randomized trial (NCT01864603), we assessed whether a universal HIV-test-and-treat intervention reduced population-level incident TB infection in rural Uganda. Intervention communities received annual, population-level HIV testing and patient-centered linkage. Control communities received population-level HIV testing at baseline and endline. We compared estimated incident TB infection by arms, defined by tuberculin skin test conversion in a cohort of persons aged 5 and older, adjusting for participation and predictors of infection, and accounting for clustering. Of the 32 trial communities, 9 were included, comprising 90 801 participants (43 127 intervention and 47 674 control). One-year cumulative incidence of TB infection was 16% in the intervention and 22% in the control; SEARCH reduced the population-level risk of incident TB infection by 27% (adjusted risk ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .57-.92, P = .005). In pre-specified analyses, the effect was largest among children aged 5-11 years and males. A universal HIV-test-and-treat intervention reduced incident TB infection, a marker of population-level TB transmission. Investments in community-level HIV interventions have broader population-level benefits, including TB reductions.

Parasite transmission in size-structured populations.

Host heterogeneity can affect parasite transmission, but determining underlying traits and incorporating them into transmission models remains challenging. Body size is easily measured and affects numerous ecological interactions, including transmission. In the snail-schistosome system, larger snails have a higher exposure to parasites but lower susceptibility to infection per parasite. We quantified the effect of size-based heterogeneity on population-level transmission by conducting transmission trials in differently size-structured snail populations and competing size-dependent transmission models. Populations with greater proportions of large snails had lower prevalence, and small snails were shielded from infection by co-occurring large conspecifics. Furthermore, a fully dependent transmission model that incorporated body size in both exposure and susceptibility outperformed other candidate models considered. Incorporating traits such as body size, which are affected by and directly affect host ecology, into transmission models could yield insights into natural dynamics and disease mitigation in many systems.

Population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in Montréal (Canada): a modelling study of surveillance and survey data.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been recommended and partly subsidized in Québec, Canada, since 2013. We evaluated the population-level impact of PrEP on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Montréal, Québec's largest city, over 2013-2021. We used an agent-based mathematical model of sexual HIV transmission to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions averted by PrEP compared to a counterfactual scenario without PrEP. The model was calibrated to local MSM survey, surveillance, and cohort data and accounted for COVID-19 pandemic impacts on sexual activity, HIV prevention, and care. PrEP was modelled from 2013 onwards, assuming 86% individual-level effectiveness. The PrEP eligibility criteria were: any anal sex unprotected by condoms (past 6 months) and either multiple partnerships (past 6 months) or multiple uses of post-exposure prophylaxis (lifetime). To assess potential optimization strategies, we modelled hypothetical scenarios prioritizing PrEP to MSM with high sexual activity (≥11 anal sex partners annually) or aged ⩽45 years, increasing coverage to levels achieved in Vancouver, Canada (where PrEP is free-of-charge), and improving retention. Over 2013-2021, the estimated annual HIV incidence decreased from 0.4 (90% credible interval [CrI]: 0.3-0.6) to 0.2 (90% CrI: 0.1-0.2) per 100 person-years. PrEP coverage among HIV-negative MSM remained low until 2015 (<1%). Afterwards, coverage increased to a maximum of 10% of all HIV-negative MSM, or about 16% of the 62% PrEP-eligible HIV-negative MSM in 2020. Over 2015-2021, PrEP averted an estimated 20% (90% CrI: 11%-30%) of cumulative HIV acquisitions. The hypothetical scenarios modelled showed that, at the same coverage level, prioritizing PrEP to high sexual activity MSM could have averted 30% (90% CrI: 19%-42%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015-2021. Even larger impacts could have resulted from higher coverage. Under the provincial eligibility criteria, reaching 10% coverage among HIV-negative MSM in 2015 and 30% in 2019, like attained in Vancouver, could have averted up to 63% (90% CrI: 54%-70%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015 to 2021. PrEP reduced population-level HIV transmission among Montréal MSM. However, our study suggests missed prevention opportunities and adds support for public policies that reduce PrEP barriers, financial or otherwise, to MSM at risk of HIV acquisition.

Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016–2018

BackgroundLarge-scale prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection may have ecological consequences for co-circulating pathogens, including influenza. We assessed if and for how long RSV infection alters the risk for subsequent influenza infection.MethodsWe analysed a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted in South Africa between 2016 and 2018. For participating households, nasopharyngeal samples were taken twice weekly, irrespective of symptoms, across three respiratory virus seasons, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify infection with RSV and/or influenza. We fitted an individual-level hidden Markov transmission model in order to estimate RSV and influenza infection rates and their interdependence.ResultsOf a total of 122,113 samples collected, 1265 (1.0%) were positive for influenza and 1002 (0.8%) positive for RSV, with 15 (0.01%) samples from 12 individuals positive for both influenza and RSV. We observed a 2.25-fold higher incidence of co-infection than expected if assuming infections were unrelated. We estimated that infection with influenza is 2.13 (95% CI 0.97–4.69) times more likely when already infected with, and for a week following, RSV infection, adjusted for age. This equates to 1.4% of influenza infections that may be attributable to RSV in this population. Due to the local seasonality (RSV season precedes the influenza season), we were unable to estimate changes in RSV infection risk following influenza infection.ConclusionsWe find no evidence to suggest that RSV was associated with a subsequent reduced risk of influenza infection. Instead, we observed an increased risk for influenza infection for a short period after infection. However, the impact on population-level transmission dynamics of this individual-level synergistic effect was not measurable in this setting.

Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission.

To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic-viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose-response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated. The predicted transmission mitigation was greater with earlier administration of antiviral treatment, and with baloxavir versus oseltamivir. When treatment was initiated 12-24 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation was 39.9-56.4% for baloxavir and 26.6-38.3% for oseltamivir depending on the infectiousness profile. When treatment was initiated 36-48 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation decreased to 0.8-28.3% for baloxavir and 0.8-19.9% for oseltamivir. Model estimates were compared with clinical data from the BLOCKSTONE post-exposure prophylaxis study, which indicated the log-scale model for infectiousness best fit the observed data and that baloxavir affords greater reductions in secondary case rates compared with neuraminidase inhibitors. These findings suggest a role for baloxavir and oseltamivir in reducing influenza transmission when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset in the index patient.

Frequency and Combination of Sequential Sexual Acts That May Lead to Sexually Transmitted Infections at Different Anatomic Sites Within the Same Person.

Modeling studies suggest that transmission of gonorrhea and chlamydia to multiple anatomic sites within the same person is necessary to reproduce observed high rates of extragenital gonorrhea/chlamydia. Limited empiric behavioral data support this idea. In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled individuals assigned male at birth who reported sex with men (MSM) and denied receptive anal sex (RAS) in the past 2years. Participants enrolled in-person at the Sexual Health Clinic in Seattle, Washington (December 2019-September 2021) or online (July 2021-September 2021), and completed a sexual history questionnaire that asked about specific sexual acts and sequence of those acts during their last sexual encounter. We enrolled 210 MSM during the 16-month recruiting period. The median number of sex acts reported at last sexual encounter was 4 (interquartile range 3-5). The most commonly reported acts at last sex were: kissing (83%), receiving oral sex (82%), and insertive anal sex (65%). There was substantial variability in the sequence of acts reported; no unique sequence of sex acts was reported by more than 12% of the population. Ninety percent of participants reported sequences of behaviors that could lead to gonorrhea or chlamydia transmission within the same person (respondent or partner); the most common of these combinations was kissing followed by receiving oral sex (64% reporting). Engaging in multiple sex acts within a single sexual encounter is common and may lead to gonorrhea/chlamydia transmission within the same person. This complicates empiric measurements of transmission probabilities needed to estimate population-level transmission.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission in High-Incidence Settings-New Paradigms and Insights.

Tuberculosis has affected humankind for thousands of years, but a deeper understanding of its cause and transmission only arose after Robert Koch discovered Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 1882. Valuable insight has been gained since, but the accumulation of knowledge has been frustratingly slow and incomplete for a pathogen that remains the number one infectious disease killer on the planet. Contrast that to the rapid progress that has been made in our understanding SARS-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19) aerobiology and transmission. In this Review, we discuss important historical and contemporary insights into M. tuberculosis transmission. Historical insights describing the principles of aerosol transmission, as well as relevant pathogen, host and environment factors are described. Furthermore, novel insights into asymptomatic and subclinical tuberculosis, and the potential role this may play in population-level transmission is discussed. Progress towards understanding the full spectrum of M. tuberculosis transmission in high-burden settings has been hampered by sub-optimal diagnostic tools, limited basic science exploration and inadequate study designs. We propose that, as a tuberculosis field, we must learn from and capitalize on the novel insights and methods that have been developed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission to limit ongoing tuberculosis transmission, which sustains the global pandemic.

Modeling the potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV among men who have sex with men in Cameroon.

BackgroundMen who have sex with men (MSM) are consistently burdened by HIV at higher levels than other adults. While HIV prevention programs for MSM are growing in coverage and quality, HIV incidence remains high. In response, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was introduced in 2019 to support HIV risk reduction among MSM in Cameroon. Understanding how PrEP initiation programs will change the HIV prevalence among MSM in Cameroon is important to developing effective programs.MethodsThis study uses a mathematical model to simulate population-level HIV transmission among MSM in the cities of Yaoundé and Douala, Cameroon. PrEP is incorporated into the model at rates that equal 25%, 50%, or 75% coverage after twenty years to assess the potential effects on HIV prevalence among MSM, requiring annual initiation rates of 2.5%, 6.8%, and 17.2% for Yaoundé and 2.2%, 5.6%, and 13.4% for Douala, respectively. The data utilized for this model are from a cross sectional study which recruited MSM through respondent-driven sampling of MSM in two major cities in Cameroon: Yaoundé and Douala.ResultsThe model estimated an HIV prevalence of 43.2% among MSM, annual HIV diagnoses of 300 per 10,000 MSM and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage of 53.9% in Yaoundé. In Douala, estimated prevalence is 26.5% among MSM, 167 per 10,000 MSM annual diagnoses and ART coverage of 72.0%. Standalone PrEP interventions aimed at 50% coverage at the end of a 20-year program would reduce the prevalence from 43.2% to 35.4% in Yaoundé and from 26.5 to 20.1% in Douala. Combining PrEP with a 10% increase in HIV testing would decrease the number of MSM living with HIV and unaware of their status from 9.8 to 6.0% in Yaoundé and from 8.7 to 4.6% in Douala.ConclusionsPrEP would be beneficial in reducing prevalence even at varying initiation and coverage levels. Combination of PrEP and increased HIV testing further decreased the number of undiagnosed MSM. This study supports the utility of implementing PrEP as part of comprehensive HIV prevention programming among MSM in Cameroon.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07738-z.

Why do some coronaviruses become pandemic threats when others do not?

Despite multiple spillover events and short chains of transmission on at least 4 continents, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has never triggered a pandemic. By contrast, its relative, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has, despite apparently little, if any, previous circulation in humans. Resolving the unsolved mystery of the failure of MERS-CoV to trigger a pandemic could help inform how we understand the pandemic potential of pathogens, and probing it underscores a need for a more holistic understanding of the ways in which viral genetic changes scale up to population-level transmission.

Assortative mixing among vaccination groups and biased estimation of reproduction numbers

Assortative mixing among vaccination groups and biased estimation of reproduction numbers

Modeling comparative cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose fractionation in India

Given global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine shortages and inequity of vaccine distributions, fractionation of vaccine doses might be an effective strategy for reducing public health and economic burden, notwithstanding the emergence of new variants of concern. In this study, we developed a multi-scale model incorporating population-level transmission and individual-level vaccination to estimate the costs of hospitalization and vaccination and the economic benefits of reducing COVID-19 deaths due to dose-fractionation strategies in India. We used large-scale survey data of the willingness to pay together with data of vaccine and hospital admission costs to build the model. We found that fractional doses of vaccines could be an economically viable vaccination strategy compared to alternatives of either full-dose vaccination or no vaccination. Dose-sparing strategies could save a large number of lives, even with the emergence of new variants with higher transmissibility.

Development of an efficient wastewater testing protocol for high-throughput country-wide SARS-CoV-2 monitoring

Wastewater-based surveillance has been widely used as a non-intrusive tool to monitor population-level transmission of COVID-19. Although various approaches are available to concentrate viruses from wastewater samples, scalable methods remain limited. Here, we sought to identify and evaluate SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration protocols for high-throughput wastewater testing. A total of twelve protocols for polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation and four protocols for ultrafiltration-based approaches were evaluated across two phases. The first phase entailed an initial evaluation using a small sample set, while the second phase further evaluated five protocols using wastewater samples of varying SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. Permutations in the pre-concentration, virus concentration and RNA extraction steps were evaluated. Among PEG-based methods, SARS-CoV-2 virus recovery was optimal with 1) the removal of debris prior to processing, 2) 2 h to 24 h incubation with 8% PEG at 4 °C, 3) 4000 xg or 14,000 xg centrifugation, and 4) a column-based RNA extraction method, yielding virus recovery of 42.4–52.5%. Similarly, the optimal protocol for ultrafiltration included 1) the removal of debris prior to processing, 2) ultrafiltration, and 3) a column-based RNA extraction method, yielding a recovery of 38.2%. This study also revealed that SARS-CoV-2 RNA recovery for samples with higher virus concentration were less sensitive to changes in the PEG method, but permutations in the PEG protocol could significantly impact virus yields when wastewater samples with lower SARS-CoV-2 RNA were used. Although both PEG precipitation and ultrafiltration methods resulted in similar SARS-CoV-2 RNA recoveries, the former method is more cost-effective while the latter method provided operational efficiency as it required a shorter turn-around-time (PEG precipitation, 9–23 h; Ultrafiltration, 5 h). The decision on which method to adopt will thus depend on the use-case for wastewater testing, and the need for cost-effectiveness, sensitivity, operational feasibility and scalability.

The prevalence of pre-treatment and acquired HIV drug resistance in Vietnam: a nationally representative survey, 2017-2018.

IntroductionMonitoring the population‐level emergence and transmission of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) is necessary for supporting public health programmes. This study provides a nationally representative prevalence estimate of HIVDR in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) and estimates of acquired HIVDR and viral load (VL) suppression in people who have received it for 12 or ≥48 months in Vietnam.MethodsThe study was conducted between September 2017 and March 2018 following World Health Organization guidance. Thirty ART clinics were randomly sampled using probability proportional to size sampling from a total of 367 ART clinics in the country.Results and DiscussionIn total, 409 patients initiating ART were enrolled into the survey of pre‐treatment HIVDR. The prevalence of any pre‐treatment HIVDR was 5.8% (95% CI 3.4–9.5%), and the prevalence of non‐nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance was 3.4% (95% CI 1.8–6.2%). Four hundred twenty‐nine patients on ART for 12±3 months and 723 patients on ART for ≥48 months were enrolled into the surveys of acquired HIVDR. The prevalence of VL suppression (defined as <1000 copies/ml) in patients on ART for 12±3 and ≥48 months was 95.5% (95% CI 91.3–97.8%) and 96.1% (95% CI 93.2–97.8%), respectively. Among individuals with viral non‐suppression, any HIVDR was detected in 11/14 (weighted prevalence 74.3%) of those on ART for 12±3 months and in 24/27 (weighted prevalence 88.5%) of those receiving ART for ≥48 months.ConclusionsThis nationally representative study of HIVDR found high levels of VL suppression among those on ART for 12 and ≥48 months. Overall, high levels of VL suppression at both time points suggested good adherence among patients receiving ART and quality of treatment services in Vietnam.Clinical Trial NumberNot applicable

Incidence and Duration of Pharyngeal Chlamydia Among a Cohort of Men Who Have Sex With Men.

The prevalence of pharyngeal chlamydia is low, but its incidence and duration are unknown. A high incidence or duration may support the role of pharyngeal chlamydia in sustaining chlamydia transmission. From March 2016 to December 2018, we enrolled men who have sex with men (MSM) in a 48-week cohort study in Seattle, Washington. Participants self-collected pharyngeal specimens weekly. We tested specimens using nucleic acid amplification testing at the conclusion of the study. In primary analyses, we defined incident pharyngeal chlamydia as >2 consecutive weeks of a positive pharyngeal specimen. In sensitivity analyses, we defined incident chlamydia as >1 week of a positive specimen. We estimated duration of pharyngeal chlamydia, censoring at loss to follow-up, receipt of antibiotics, or end of study. A total of 140 participants contributed 70.5 person-years (PY); 1.4% had pharyngeal chlamydia at enrollment. In primary analyses, there were 8 pharyngeal chlamydia cases among 6 MSM (incidence = 11.4 per 100 PY; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0-21.9). In sensitivity analysis, there were 19 cases among 16 MSM (incidence = 27.1 per 100 PY; 95% CI: 18.5-39.8). The median duration was 6.0 weeks (95% CI: 2.0-undefined) in primary analysis and 2.0 weeks (95% CI: 1.1-6.0) in sensitivity analysis. Duration was shorter for those with a history of chlamydia compared with those without (3.6 vs 8.7 weeks; P = .02). Pharyngeal chlamydia has a low incidence and duration relative to other extragenital sexually transmitted infections. Its contribution to population-level transmission remains unclear.

Agri-environment scheme nectar chemistry can suppress the social epidemiology of parasites in an important pollinator.

Emergent infectious diseases are one of the main drivers of species loss. Emergent infection with the microsporidian Nosema bombi has been implicated in the population and range declines of a suite of North American bumblebees, a group of important pollinators. Previous work has shown that phytochemicals found in pollen and nectar can negatively impact parasites in individuals, but how this relates to social epidemiology and by extension whether plants can be effectively used as pollinator disease management strategies remains unexplored. Here, we undertook a comprehensive screen of UK agri-environment scheme (AES) plants, a programme designed to benefit pollinators and wider biodiversity in agricultural settings, for phytochemicals in pollen and nectar using liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. Caffeine, which occurs across a range of plant families, was identified in the nectar of sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia), a component of UK AES and a major global crop. We showed that caffeine significantly reduces N. bombi infection intensity, both prophylactically and therapeutically, in individual bumblebees (Bombus terrestris), and, for the first time, that such effects impact social epidemiology, with colonies reared from wild-caught queens having both lower prevalence and intensity of infection. Furthermore, infection prevalence was lower in foraging bumblebees from caffeine-treated colonies, suggesting a likely reduction in population-level transmission. Combined, these results show that N. bombi is less likely to be transmitted intracolonially when bumblebees consume naturally available caffeine, and that this may in turn reduce environmental prevalence. Consequently, our results demonstrate that floral phytochemicals at ecologically relevant concentrations can impact pollinator disease epidemiology and that planting strategies that increase floral abundance to support biodiversity could be co-opted as disease management tools.

Representing Tuberculosis Transmission with Complex Contagion: An Agent-Based Simulation Modeling Approach.

A recent study reported a tuberculosis (TB) outbreak in which, among newly infected individuals, exposure to additional active infections was associated with a higher probability of developing active disease. Referred to as complex contagion, multiple reexposures to TB within a short period after initial infection is hypothesized to confer a greater likelihood of developing active infection in 1 y. The purpose of this article is to develop and validate an agent-based simulation model (ABM) to study the effect of complex contagion on population-level TB transmission dynamics. We built an ABM of a TB epidemic using data from a series of outbreaks recorded in the 20th century in Saskatchewan, Canada. We fit 3 dynamical schemes: base, with no complex contagion; additive, in which each reexposure confers an independent risk of activated infection; and threshold, in which a small number of reexposures confers a low risk and a high number of reexposures confers a high risk of activation. We find that the base model fits the mortality and incidence output targets best, followed by the threshold and then the additive models. The threshold model fits the incidence better than the base model does but overestimates mortality. All 3 models produce qualitatively realistic epidemic curves. We find that complex contagion qualitatively changes the trajectory of a TB epidemic, although data from a high-incidence setting are reproduced better with the base model. Results from this model demonstrate the feasibility of using ABM to capture nuances in TB transmission.

Estimated impact of tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax control and elimination in Brazil: A modelling study.

Despite recent intensification of control measures, Plasmodium vivax poses a major challenge for malaria elimination efforts. Liver-stage hypnozoite parasites that cause relapsing infections can be cleared with primaquine; however, poor treatment adherence undermines drug effectiveness. Tafenoquine, a new single-dose treatment, offers an alternative option for preventing relapses and reducing transmission. In 2018, over 237,000 cases of malaria were reported to the Brazilian health system, of which 91.5% were due to P. vivax. We evaluated the impact of introducing tafenoquine into case management practices on population-level transmission dynamics using a mathematical model of P. vivax transmission. The model was calibrated to reflect the transmission dynamics of P. vivax endemic settings in Brazil in 2018, informed by nationwide malaria case reporting data. Parameters for treatment pathways with chloroquine, primaquine, and tafenoquine with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) testing were informed by clinical trial data and the literature. We assumed 71.3% efficacy for primaquine and tafenoquine, a 66.7% adherence rate to the 7-day primaquine regimen, a mean 5.5% G6PDd prevalence, and 8.1% low metaboliser prevalence. The introduction of tafenoquine is predicted to improve effective hypnozoite clearance among P. vivax cases and reduce population-level transmission over time, with heterogeneous levels of impact across different transmission settings. According to the model, while achieving elimination in only few settings in Brazil, tafenoquine rollout in 2021 is estimated to improve the mean effective radical cure rate from 42% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41%-44%) to 62% (95% UI 54%-68%) among clinical cases, leading to a predicted 38% (95% UI 7%-99%) reduction in transmission and over 214,000 cumulative averted cases between 2021 and 2025. Higher impact is predicted in settings with low transmission, low pre-existing primaquine adherence, and a high proportion of cases in working-aged males. High-transmission settings with a high proportion of cases in children would benefit from a safe high-efficacy tafenoquine dose for children. Our methodological limitations include not accounting for the role of imported cases from outside the transmission setting, relying on reported clinical cases as a measurement of community-level transmission, and implementing treatment efficacy as a binary condition. In our modelling study, we predicted that, provided there is concurrent rollout of G6PDd diagnostics, tafenoquine has the potential to reduce P. vivax transmission by improving effective radical cure through increased adherence and increased protection from new infections. While tafenoquine alone may not be sufficient for P. vivax elimination, its introduction will improve case management, prevent a substantial number of cases, and bring countries closer to achieving malaria elimination goals.

Routine asymptomatic testing strategies for airline travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a simulation study

BackgroundRoutine viral testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 infection might facilitate safe airline travel during the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate global spread of the virus. However, the effectiveness of these test-and-travel strategies to reduce passenger risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and population-level transmission remains unknown.MethodsIn this simulation study, we developed a microsimulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a cohort of 100 000 US domestic airline travellers using publicly available data on COVID-19 clinical cases and published natural history parameters to assign individuals one of five health states of susceptible to infection, latent period, early infection, late infection, or recovered. We estimated a per-day risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 corresponding to a daily incidence of 150 infections per 100 000 people. We assessed five testing strategies: (1) anterior nasal PCR test within 3 days of departure, (2) PCR within 3 days of departure and 5 days after arrival, (3) rapid antigen test on the day of travel (assuming 90% of the sensitivity of PCR during active infection), (4) rapid antigen test on the day of travel and PCR test 5 days after arrival, and (5) PCR test 5 days after arrival. Strategies 2 and 4 included a 5-day quarantine after arrival. The travel period was defined as 3 days before travel to 2 weeks after travel. Under each scenario, individuals who tested positive before travel were not permitted to travel. The primary study outcome was cumulative number of infectious days in the cohort over the travel period without isolation or quarantine (population-level transmission risk), and the key secondary outcome was the number of infectious people detected on the day of travel (passenger risk of infection).FindingsWe estimated that in a cohort of 100 000 airline travellers, in a scenario with no testing or screening, there would be 8357 (95% uncertainty interval 6144–12831) infectious days with 649 (505–950) actively infectious passengers on the day of travel. The pre-travel PCR test reduced the number of infectious days from 8357 to 5401 (3917–8677), a reduction of 36% (29–41) compared with the base case, and identified 569 (88% [76–92]) of 649 actively infectious travellers on the day of flight; the addition of post-travel quarantine and PCR reduced the number of infectious days to 1474 (1087–2342), a reduction of 82% (80–84) compared with the base case. The rapid antigen test on the day of travel reduced the number of infectious days to 5674 (4126–9081), a reduction of 32% (26–38) compared with the base case, and identified 560 (86% [83–89]) actively infectious travellers; the addition of post-travel quarantine and PCR reduced the number of infectious days to 2518 (1935–3821), a reduction of 70% (67–72) compared with the base case. The post-travel PCR alone reduced the number of infectious days to 4851 (3714–7679), a reduction of 42% (35–49) compared with the base case.InterpretationRoutine asymptomatic testing for SARS-CoV-2 before travel can be an effective strategy to reduce passenger risk of infection during travel, although abbreviated quarantine with post-travel testing is probably needed to reduce population-level transmission due to importation of infection when travelling from a high to low incidence setting.FundingUniversity of California, San Francisco.

Modelling the association between COVID-19 transmissibility and D614G substitution in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein: using the surveillance data in California as an example

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to global health, and pathogenic mutations are a major challenge to disease control. We developed a statistical framework to explore the association between molecular-level mutation activity of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level disease transmissibility of COVID-19.MethodsWe estimated the instantaneous transmissibility of COVID-19 by using the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). The mutation activity in SARS-CoV-2 is quantified empirically depending on (i) the prevalence of emerged amino acid substitutions and (ii) the frequency of these substitutions in the whole sequence. Using the likelihood-based approach, a statistical framework is developed to examine the association between mutation activity and Rt. We adopted the COVID-19 surveillance data in California as an example for demonstration.ResultsWe found a significant positive association between population-level COVID-19 transmissibility and the D614G substitution on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We estimate that a per 0.01 increase in the prevalence of glycine (G) on codon 614 is positively associated with a 0.49% (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.59) increase in Rt, which explains 61% of the Rt variation after accounting for the control measures. We remark that the modeling framework can be extended to study other infectious pathogens.ConclusionsOur findings show a link between the molecular-level mutation activity of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level transmission of COVID-19 to provide further evidence for a positive association between the D614G substitution and Rt. Future studies exploring the mechanism between SARS-CoV-2 mutations and COVID-19 infectivity are warranted.