Population Dynamics Research Articles

Intra- and interspecies variation and population dynamics of Fasciola gigantica among ruminants in Sudan.

Fasciola gigantica is a widespread parasite that causes neglected disease in livestock worldwide. Its high transmissibility and dispersion are attributed to its ability to infect intermediate snail hosts and adapt to various mammalian definitive hosts. This study investigated the variation and population dynamics of F. gigantica in cattle, sheep, and goats from three states in Sudan. Mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 1 (ND1) genes were sequenced successfully to examine intra and interspecific differences. ND1 exhibited higher diversity than COI, with 15 haplotypes and 10 haplotypes, respectively. Both genes had high haplotype diversity but low nucleotide diversity, with 21 and 11 polymorphic sites for ND1 and COI, respectively. Mismatch distribution analysis and neutrality tests revealed that F. gigantica from different host species was in a state of population expansion. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees and median networks revealed that F. gigantica in Sudan and other African countries had host-specific and country-specific lineages for both genes. The study also indicated that F. gigantica-infected small ruminants were evolutionarily distant, suggesting deep and historical interspecies adaptation.

De novo motor learning creates structure in neural activity that shapes adaptation

Animals can quickly adapt learned movements to external perturbations, and their existing motor repertoire likely influences their ease of adaptation. Long-term learning causes lasting changes in neural connectivity, which shapes the activity patterns that can be produced during adaptation. Here, we examined how a neural population’s existing activity patterns, acquired through de novo learning, affect subsequent adaptation by modeling motor cortical neural population dynamics with recurrent neural networks. We trained networks on different motor repertoires comprising varying numbers of movements, which they acquired following various learning experiences. Networks with multiple movements had more constrained and robust dynamics, which were associated with more defined neural ‘structure’—organization in the available population activity patterns. This structure facilitated adaptation, but only when the changes imposed by the perturbation were congruent with the organization of the inputs and the structure in neural activity acquired during de novo learning. These results highlight trade-offs in skill acquisition and demonstrate how different learning experiences can shape the geometrical properties of neural population activity and subsequent adaptation.

Rabies and the Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus): A Review.

The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) is the primary infection reservoir of Arctic rabies, the dynamics of which are poorly understood and subject to significant spatiotemporal variation. Although rabies presence has been documented in the region since the mid-19th century, there is currently no evidence of rabies impacting Arctic fox population size. Under the influence of climate change in a rapidly changing Arctic ecosystem, changes in transmission dynamics are predicted, with implications for this species. Concurrently, the World Health Organization leads the United Against Rabies collective in the aim of elimination of dog-mediated rabies by 2030, and although efforts have justifiably been directed to tropical regions, elimination will require a good understanding of rabies in the Arctic. Therefore, this review aimed to provide an overview of current Arctic rabies understanding, while identifying the key knowledge gaps. The review covered spatiotemporal trends in rabies populations, population dynamics of the host species, and current theories about Arctic rabies persistence. It is still unclear how Arctic rabies can persist under low host densities, which has led to several hypotheses in recent years. Creation of high animal density "hotspots" caused by heterogenic fox distribution and multispecies congregations in response to food availability, extensive Arctic fox migration patterns, and the potential evolution to a less lethal variant of rabies may all be part of the explanation. Evidence for these theories by using recent genetic and modeling studies was evaluated within the review. There is currently insufficient evidence about the efficacy and feasibility of vaccines against Arctic rabies. Key knowledge gaps need addressing to enable future control campaigns.

Lack of abundant core virome in Culex mosquitoes from a temperate climate region despite a mosquito species-specific virome.

In arthropod-associated microbial communities, insect-specific viruses (ISVs) are prevalent yet understudied due to limited infectivity outside their natural hosts. However, ISVs might play a crucial role in regulating mosquito populations and influencing arthropod-borne virus transmission. Some studies have indicated a core virome in mosquitoes consisting of mostly ISVs. Employing single mosquito metagenomics, we comprehensively profiled the virome of native and invasive mosquito species in Belgium. This approach allowed for accurate host species determination, prevalence assessment of viruses and Wolbachia, and the identification of novel viruses. Contrary to our expectations, no abundant core virome was observed in Culex mosquitoes from Belgium. In that regard, we caution against rigidly defining mosquito core viromes and encourage nuanced interpretations of other studies. Nonetheless, our study identified 45 viruses of which 28 were novel, enriching our understanding of the mosquito virome and ISVs. We showed that the mosquito virome in this study is species-specific and less dependent on the location where mosquitoes from the same species reside. In addition, because Wolbachia has previously been observed to influence arbovirus transmission, we report the prevalence of Wolbachia in Belgian mosquitoes and the detection of several Wolbachia mobile genetic elements. The observed prevalence ranged from 83% to 92% in members from the Culex pipiens complex.IMPORTANCECulex pipiens mosquitoes are important vectors for arboviruses like West Nile virus and Usutu virus. Virome studies on individual Culex pipiens, and on individual mosquitoes in general, have been lacking. To mitigate this, we sequenced the virome of 190 individual Culex and 8 individual Aedes japonicus mosquitoes. We report the lack of a core virome in these mosquitoes from Belgium and caution the interpretation of other studies in this light. The discovery of new viruses in this study will aid our comprehension of insect-specific viruses and the mosquito virome in general in relation to mosquito physiology and mosquito population dynamics.

Population dynamics and paleoenvironmental inferences of Turonian planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from SE Tanzania and ODP Site 762 (Exmouth Plateau, eastern Indian Ocean)

Abstract The Tanzania Drilling Program (TDP) recovered hemipelagic sediments from land-based boreholes that yielded extraordinarily well-preserved, diverse Turonian foraminifera. Reliable oxygen and carbon isotopic analyses through most of the Turonian Stage and biostratigraphic data were documented. This study compares Turonian foraminiferal population dynamics and associated geochemical proxy records among the TDP boreholes with correlative records from Ocean Drilling Program Site 762 (Exmouth Plateau, eastern Indian Ocean). The two regions were separated by ∼12° latitude and ∼5,000 km of ocean with the Indian continental plate located between. Taxonomic turnover is similar is nearly simultaneous in both regions across the transition from the Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica Zone to the Falsotruncana maslakovae Zone (∼93.0 Ma). Changes include overlapping extinctions of all helvetoglobotruncanids, most dicarinellids and one species of Praeglobotruncana and subsequent first appearances of marginotruncanid and falsotruncanid species. Increased abundance of biserial planktonic foraminifera is recorded at multiple TDP sites and at Site 762 across the contact of the Fa. maslakovae and Huberella huberi Zone about 0.5 m.y. after the Hv. helvetica / Fa. maslakovae transition. Geochemical records at the two sites do not indicate associated paleoenvironmental changes in surface water conditions that would explain coordinated changes in species composition on opposites sides of the Indian Ocean.

Temporal declines in fecundity: A study of southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and implications for potential reproductive output.

Individuals must reproduce to survive and thrive from generation to generation. In fish, the fecundity of individuals and estimates of total reproductive output are critical for evaluating reproductive success and understanding population dynamics. Estimating fecundity is an onerous task; therefore, many populations lack contemporary estimates of fecundity and size-fecundity relationships. However, reproductive dynamics are not static in time; therefore, it is important to develop contemporary fecundity estimates to better inform conservation and management action. To highlight the importance of contemporary fecundity estimates, we examined the fecundity of southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) spring and fall spawning Atlantic herring in 2022, developed size-fecundity models, and compared these to historical fecundity estimates and models. Our results suggest that the average fecundity of sGSL spring and fall herring has undergone a substantial temporal decline of approximately 47% and 58%, respectively, since the 1970s and 1980s. The size-fecundity relationships for fall spawning herring have shifted, with fish of a given size exhibiting lower fecundity in 2022 compared to the 1970s. Alternatively, the size-fecundity relationships for spring spawning herring have remained relatively static. Furthermore, simulations highlighted a substantial reduction in potential reproductive output in 2022 compared to 1970 of approximately 32% and 68% for spring and fall spawners, respectively, based on a fixed number of mature females, which may have negative implications for stock rebuilding. Overall, our study provides support for periodic estimates of fecundity in fish populations to better understand temporal changes in reproductive and population dynamics.

Analytical and numerical solutions to the Klein–Gordon model with cubic nonlinearity

In this paper, the nonlinear Klein–Gordon equation’s exact solutions are obtained through the application of an appropriate transformation based on He’s semi-inverse approach. This equation considered a generalization of other famous models in applied science, such as Phi-4 equation, Duffing equation, Fisher–Kolmogorov model through population dynamics and Hodgkin–Huxley equation that characterizes the propagation of electrical signals via nervous system. The suggested approach is simple, robust, and efficient, and its application in other partial differential equations in applied science seems promising. Numerical solution of the nonlinear Klein–Gordon equation is presented using finite difference method. The method’s accuracy is demonstrated by contrasting it with the exact solution that we obtained. The Von Neumann stability technique is applied to obtain the stability condition and a convergent test is presented Some 2D and 3D graphs matching to chosen solutions are simulated by taking into account appropriate values for the parameters.

Crucial impact of component Allee effect in predator-prey system

Allee effect in models in interacting species of predator prey system has great significance in ecological context. Allee effect plays crucial role in population dynamics in ecology, where it is the challenging fact that per capita population growth rate is positively dependent on the population density of a species. In this paper, we inspect the famous Hastings and Powell (HP) (Hastings and Powell 1991 Ecology 72 896–903) model incorporating component Allee effect on top predator’s reproduction. We analyse the updated model with the help of both analytical and numerical phenomena. Considering cost of Allee effect, half-saturation constant of prey as the key parameters, the Hopf bifurcations are also analysed. The directions of Hopf bifurcations at the critical values of Allee parameter and half-saturation constant of prey are studied theoretically by using normal form theory introduced by Hassard et al (1981 Theory and Applications of Hopf Bifurcation vol 41 (CUP Archive)). The formulated model indicates that the system demonstrates chaotic, periodic and stable dynamics in the variation of key parameters. The chaos can be controlled for proper application of the large values of parameter used as the cost of Allee effect and also for small values of the parameter used as the half saturation constant of prey population. The results of this study are applicable in the field of marine and wild ecosystem dynamics.

Mechanics limits ecological diversity and promotes heterogeneity in confined bacterial communities

Multispecies bacterial populations often inhabit confined and densely packed environments where spatial competition determines the ecological diversity of the community. However, the role of mechanical interactions in shaping the ecology is still poorly understood. Here, we study a model system consisting of two populations of nonmotile Escherichia coli bacteria competing within open, monolayer microchannels. The competitive dynamics is observed to be biphasic: After seeding, either one strain rapidly fixates or both strains orient into spatially stratified, stable communities. We find that mechanical interactions with other cells and local spatial constraints influence the resulting community ecology in unexpected ways, severely limiting the overall diversity of the communities while simultaneously allowing for the establishment of stable, heterogeneous populations of bacteria displaying disparate growth rates. Surprisingly, the populations have a high probability of coexisting even when one strain has a significant growth advantage. A more coccus morphology is shown to provide a selective advantage, but agent-based simulations indicate this is due to hydrodynamic and adhesion effects within the microchannel and not from breaking of the nematic ordering. Our observations are qualitatively reproduced by a simple Pólya urn model, which suggests the generality of our findings for confined population dynamics and highlights the importance of early colonization conditions on the resulting diversity and ecology of bacterial communities. These results provide fundamental insights into the determinants of community diversity in dense confined ecosystems where spatial exclusion is central to competition as in organized biofilms or intestinal crypts.

How do host population dynamics impact Lyme disease risk dynamics in theoretical models?

Lyme disease is the most common wildlife-to-human transmitted disease reported in North America. The study of this disease requires an understanding of the ecology of the complex communities of ticks and host species involved in harboring and transmitting this disease. Much of the ecology of this system is well understood, such as the life cycle of ticks, and how hosts are able to support tick populations and serve as disease reservoirs, but there is much to be explored about how the population dynamics of different host species and communities impact disease risk to humans. In this study, we construct a stage-structured, empirically-informed model with host dynamics to investigate how host population dynamics can affect disease risk to humans. The model describes a tick population and a simplified community of three host species, where primary nymph host populations are made to fluctuate on an annual basis, as commonly observed in host populations. We tested the model under different environmental conditions to examine the effect of environment on the interactions of host dynamics and disease risk. Results show that allowing for host dynamics in the model reduces mean nymphal infection prevalence and increases the maximum annual prevalence of nymphal infection and the density of infected nymphs. Effects of host dynamics on disease measures of nymphal infection prevalence were nonlinear and patterns in the effect of dynamics on amplitude in nymphal infection prevalence varied across environmental conditions. These results highlight the importance of further study of the effect of community dynamics on disease risk. This will involve the construction of further theoretical models and collection of robust field data to inform these models. With a more complete understanding of disease dynamics we can begin to better determine how to predict and manage disease risk using these models.

Nonstandard Nearly Exact Analysis of the FitzHugh–Nagumo Model

The FitzHugh–Nagumo model has been used empirically to model certain types of neuronal activities. It is also a non-linear dynamical system applicable to chemical kinetics, population dynamics, epidemiology and pattern formation. In the literature, many approaches have been proposed to study its dynamics. In this paper, initially, we have employed cutting-edge tools from discrete dynamics for discretization and fixed points. It has been proven that an exact discrete scheme exists for this paradigm. This project also considers the phase space and integral surfaces of these evolutionary equations. In addition, it carries out a thorough symmetry analysis of this reaction diffusion system to find equivalent systems. Moreover, steady-state solutions are obtained using ansatzes for traveling wave solutions. The existence of infinite traveling wave solutions has also been proven. Yet again, this investigation establishes the potential of symmetry methods to unravel non-linearity. Finally, singular perturbation theory has been employed to obtain analytical approximations and to study stability in different parameter regimes.

Understanding the temporal dynamics of invasive late blight populations in India for improved management practices.

The microbial oomycete pathogen, Phytophthora infestans causes severe epidemics of potato late blight in crops globally. Disease management benefits from an understanding of the diversity of pathogen populations. In this study, we explore the dynamics of P. infestans populations in the late blight-potato agro-ecosystem across the Indian subcontinent. Investigations of the macroecological observations at the field level and microbial ecological principles provided insights into future pathogen behaviour. We use a comprehensive simple sequence repeat allele dataset to demonstrate that an invasive clonal lineage called EU_13_A2 has dominated populations over 14 years across India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Increasing levels of sub-clonal variation were tracked over time and space and, for the first time, populations in Asia were also compared to the source populations from Europe. Within India, a regional pathogen population structure was observed with evidence for local migration, cross-border movement between surrounding countries, and introductions via imports. There was also evidence of genetic drift and between-season transmission of more strongly pathogenic sub-clones with a complete displacement of some sub-clonal types. The limited introduction of novel genotypes and the use of resistant potato cultivars could contribute to the dominance of the 13_A2 lineage. The insights will contribute to the management of the pathogen in these key global potato production regions.

Finding a Direct Method for a Dynamic Process: The DD (Direct and Dynamic) Cell-Tox Method

The main focus of in vitro toxicity assessment methods is to assess the viability of the cells, which is usually based on metabolism changes. Yet, when exposed to toxic substances, the cell triggers multiple signals in response. With this in mind, we have developed a promising cell-based toxicity method that observes various cell responses when exposed to toxic substances (either death, division, or remain viable). Based on the collective cell response, we observed and predicted the dynamics of the cell population to determine the toxicity of the toxicant. The method was tested with two different conformations: In the first conformation, we exposed a monoculture model of blood macrophages to UV light, hydrogen peroxide, nutrient deprivation, tetrabromobisphenol A, fatty acids, and 5-fluorouracil. In the second, we exposed a coculture liver model consisting of hepatocytes, hepatic stellate cells, Kupffer cells, and liver sinusoidal endothelial cells to rifampicin, ibuprofen, and 5-fluorouracil. The method showed good accuracy compared to established toxicity assessment methods. In addition, this approach provided more representative information on the toxic effects of the compounds, as it considers the different cellular responses induced by toxic agents.

Exploring the Relationship between the Dynamics of the Urban–Rural Interface and Regional Development in a Post-Socialist Transition

This study offers, by an empirical analysis, another perspective on post-socialist development, highlighting the role of the urban–rural interface in regional dynamics. The current literature on the relationships between both issues is not too rich and our paper analyzes the relationships between core cities, their peri-urban areas, and their regions, through a comparative overview of their growth over the last three decades. Romania, as a special case study for a contradictory transition, due to the great step from a drastic dictatorial regime to a democracy and a market economy, is a good example to test these complex relationships. Considering the new development trend at the urban–rural interfaces, our key idea was to depict their contribution to regional development (NUTS 3) compared to city cores. The second question was how this differentiated contribution can be measured, using the simplest tool. The starting point was the fact that population dynamics reflect all changes in the city core and at the urban–rural interface, and less so at a regional level. Consequently, we selected the dynamics of the number of inhabitants for the first two, as well as the dynamics of GDP per capita at the regional level. We found higher and significant correlations between GDP per capita and urban–rural interfaces, but no significant correlations in the case of city cores. Our conclusion is that, in the transition period, the dynamics of urban–rural interfaces influenced more regional development dynamics, than those of city cores. This means that urban–rural interfaces amplify the development coming from cities, adding their own contribution and then dissipating it regionally. Future research should identify what the urban–rural interface offers to regions, in addition to the city core.

Dynamic multilayer growth: Parallel vs. sequential approaches

The decision of when to add a new hidden unit or layer is a fundamental challenge for constructive algorithms. It becomes even more complex in the context of multiple hidden layers. Growing both network width and depth offers a robust framework for leveraging the ability to capture more information from the data and model more complex representations. In the context of multiple hidden layers, should growing units occur sequentially with hidden units only being grown in one layer at a time or in parallel with hidden units growing across multiple layers simultaneously? The effects of growing sequentially or in parallel are investigated using a population dynamics-inspired growing algorithm in a multilayer context. A modified version of the constructive growing algorithm capable of growing in parallel is presented. Sequential and parallel growth methodologies are compared in a three-hidden layer multilayer perceptron on several benchmark classification tasks. Several variants of these approaches are developed for a more in-depth comparison based on the type of hidden layer initialization and the weight update methods employed. Comparisons are then made to another sequential growing approach, Dynamic Node Creation. Growing hidden layers in parallel resulted in comparable or higher performances than sequential approaches. Growing hidden layers in parallel promotes growing narrower deep architectures tailored to the task. Dynamic growth inspired by population dynamics offers the potential to grow the width and depth of deeper neural networks in either a sequential or parallel fashion.

Winter-ground microhabitat use by differently coloured phenotypes affects return rate in a long-distance migratory bird.

Migratory bird populations are declining globally at alarming rates. Non-breeding site conditions affect breeding populations, but generalising non-breeding habitat conditions over large spatial regions cannot address potential fine-scale differences across landscapes or local populations. Plumage characteristics can mediate the effects of environmental conditions on individual fitness. However, whether different phenotypes use distinctive non-breeding sites, and whether they respond to non-breeding site conditions differently remains largely unknown. Stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ2H) of inert tissues are useful to infer habitat characteristics and geographic origins where those tissues were grown. We collected winter-grown feathers from pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) on their breeding grounds over several years from males whose dorsal plumage colouration ranged continuously from brown to black and assessed their stable isotope values as proxies of local habitat conditions. Based on feather δ2H profiles we found that browner males spent their non-breeding season in drier habitats than black males. Assignment to origin analysis shows potential regional non-breeding ground separation between differently coloured males. High within-individual repeatability of both δ13C and δ15N indicate the pied flycatcher males return yearly to similar areas. Blacker males were more likely to return to the breeding grounds after dry years compared with brown males. The opposite was found in wet years. Our study demonstrates that different phenotypes are exposed to different non-breeding site conditions which can differentially affect individual survivorship. This has important ramifications for population dynamics under predicted climate change scenarios where especially brown phenotype pied flycatcher males may be under a risk of decreasing.

Super high-density olive orchard system affects the main olive crop pests

The increasing use of the super high-density (SHD) olive orchard system requires a careful assessment of its potential impact on the main olive pests. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the SHD effect on Bactrocera oleae and other harmful phytophagous species by assessing damages caused by each pest. For three years, in three different sites in Tuscany established with Italian selection or Spanish Arbequina cultivars, the SHD management system was compared to an adjacent traditional olive orchard system in which the same soil and phytosanitary management were applied. Samplings of twigs and fruits from spring to fall together with adult monitoring of B. oleae, Prays oleae, and Palpita vitrealis by pheromone traps were used to determine infestation percentages and insects’ population dynamics. Bactrocera oleae, Liothrips oleae, and Euphillura olivina were negatively affected by the SHD olive orchard system, while P. vitrealis and Otiorhynchus cribricollis were favoured by this management. Bactrocera oleae total infestation was reduced to almost 50% in the SHD system. In contrast, Palpita vitrealis showed high infestation levels in more vigorous cultivars. Further studies are required for a complete evaluation of the impact of SHD management on olive pests.

Influence of sticky trap color, host plant species, and weather factors on the population dynamics of thrips species in Southern Ghana.

It is essential to correctly identify and keep track of the abundance of thrips species on infested host crops to understand their population dynamics and implement control measures promptly. The current study was conducted to evaluate the performance of sticky traps in monitoring thrips species in exporters' eggplant and chili farms and to assess the impact of weather factors on thrips population dynamics. Thrips species were monitored using blue, yellow, and white sticky traps on chili and eggplant farms in Tuba, respectively, in 2020 and 2021. Each field was divided into 8 blocks, and in each replicate, all colors representing 3 treatments were randomly tied to stakes at the center of the respective crop. Data loggers were installed to record hourly weather variables. Three thrips species [Thrips parvispinus Karny (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), Franklinella schultzei Trybom (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), and Thrips tabaci Lindeman (Thysanoptera: Thripidae)] were identified from both farms and the different species showed varied attractiveness to trap color for both seasons, with white proving more attractive to T. parvispinus. The population dynamics of the species varied significantly with the season and weather but not with the crop. Optimum temperatures (28-31 °C) and relative humidity (60%-78%) showed a positive linear relationship between the trapped insects with temperature and RH, while extreme temperatures (35 °C) negatively affected their abundance. All sticky trap colors attracted several nontarget organisms; however, yellow colors had higher populations, including the predator, Orius insidiosus. White sticky traps are recommended for inclusion in the country-wide monitoring for thrips, especially T. parvispinus.

Identifying impactful sea turtle conservation strategies: a mismatch between most influential and most readily manageable life-stages

Sea turtles worldwide face a range of threats including sea level rise and warming associated with climate change, predation by invasive species, plastic and light pollution, coastal development, and human interference. Conservation managers have a long history of aiding sea turtle populations, from protecting nests to head-starting hatchlings. Due to these challenges faced by turtles, there is a constant focus on assessing the likely success of proposed conservation interventions to help inform decision-making processes. We develop an age-based, spatially implicit population model for the north-west shelf stock of Australia’s endemic flatback turtle Natator depressus that estimates the long-term outcomes of a range of onshore and offshore conservation interventions. Analysis of the model shows that young adults contribute most to population growth (i.e. have highest expected future reproductive success); however, this is often the most difficult life stage to manipulate in the field. Observable outcomes of interventions are often delayed for many years, especially for on shore activities (e.g. protecting eggs and hatchlings), due to late age to maturity. The potential impact of warming-induced female bias on population dynamics was also investigated. Although such bias increases population growth rates in the short term, negative effects of the bias (e.g. reduced female mating success) and negative environmental effects (e.g. reduced survival rates, habitat loss) can lead to sustained declines. Population models can rapidly assess climate change and conservation impacts on turtle dynamics and can guide monitoring efforts for real-world application.

Predicting air quality trends in Malaysia’s largest cities: the role of urban population dynamics and COVID-19 effects

This paper aims to explore the relationship between the Air Quality Index (AQI), COVID-19 incidence rates, and population density within Malaysia’s ten most populous cities from January 2018 to December 2021. Data were sourced from the Department of Statistics Malaysia, the World Air Quality Index Project, and Our World in Statistics. The methodology integrated population-based city classification and AQI assessment, cluster analysis through SPSS, and Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) analysis using R Studio despite encountering a data gap in AQI for five months in 2019. Cities were organized into three clusters based on their AQI: Cluster One included Ipoh, Penang, Kuala Lumpur, and Melaka, Cluster Two comprised Kuantan, Seremban, Johor Bahru, and Kota Bharu, Cluster Three featured Kota Kinabalu and Kuching. GAMM analysis revealed prediction accuracies for AQI variations of 58%, 60%, and 41% for the respective clusters, indicating a notable impact of population density on air quality. AQI variations remained unaffected by COVID-19, with a forecasted improvement in air quality across all clusters. The paper presents novel insights into the negligible impact of COVID-19 on AQI variations and underscores the predictive power of population dynamics on urban air quality, offering valuable perspectives for environmental and urban planning.