Population-based Time-series Study Research Articles

Cannabis Use During Early Pregnancy Following Recreational Cannabis Legalization

It is unknown whether state recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) is related to increased rates of prenatal cannabis use or whether RCL-related changes vary with cannabis screening methods or the local policy environment. To test whether RCL in California was associated with changes in prenatal cannabis use rates, whether changes were evident in both self-report and urine toxicology testing, and whether rates varied by local policies banning vs allowing adult-use retailers post-RCL. This population-based time-series study used data from pregnancies in Kaiser Permanente Northern California universally screened for cannabis use during early pregnancy by self-report and toxicology testing from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2019. Analyses were conducted from September 2022 to August 2024. California state RCL passage (November 9, 2016) and implementation of legal sales (January 1, 2018) were examined with a 1-month lag. Local policies allowing vs banning medical retailers pre-RCL and adult-use retailers post-RCL were also examined. Any prenatal cannabis use was based on screening at entrance to prenatal care (typically at 8-10 weeks' gestation) and defined as (1) a positive urine toxicology test result or self-report, (2) a positive urine toxicology test result, or (3) self-report. Interrupted time series models were fit using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, race and ethnicity, and neighborhood deprivation index. The sample of 300 993 pregnancies (236 327 unique individuals) comprised 25.9% Asian individuals, 6.4% Black individuals, 26.0% Hispanic individuals, 37.7% White individuals, and 4.1% individuals of other, multiple, or unknown race, with a mean (SD) age of 30.3 (5.4) years. Before RCL implementation, rates of prenatal cannabis use rose steadily from 4.5% in January 2012 to 7.1% in January 2018. There was no change in use rates at the time of RCL passage (level change rate ratio [RR], 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96-1.11) and a statistically significant increase in rates in the first month after RCL implementation, increasing to 8.6% in February 2018 (level change RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16). Results were similar when defining prenatal cannabis use by (1) a toxicology test or (2) self-report. In local policy analyses, the post-RCL implementation increase in use was only found among those in jurisdictions allowing adult-use cannabis retailers (allowed RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33; banned RR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93-1.10). In this time-series study, RCL implementation in California was associated with an increase in rates of cannabis use during early pregnancy, defined by both self-report and toxicology testing, driven by individuals living in jurisdictions that allowed adult-use retailers.

Impact of elevated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) during landscape fire events on cardiorespiratory hospital admissions in Perth, Western Australia

BackgroundAustralia has experienced extreme fire weather in recent years. Information on the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires (LFs) on cardiorespiratory hospital admissions is limited.MethodsWe conducted a...

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antidepressant and antipsychotic use among children and adolescents: a population-based study.

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in the prevalence of depression, anxiety and behavioural problems among children and youth. Less well understood is the influence of the pandemic on antidepressant and antipsychotic use among children. This is important, as it is possible that antidepressants and antipsychotics were used as a "stop-gap" measure to treat mental health symptoms when in-person access to outpatient care and school-based supportive services was disrupted. Furthermore, antipsychotics and antidepressants have been associated with harm in children and youth. We examined trends in dispensing of these medications two years following the pandemic among children 18 years of age and under in Ontario, Canada. We conducted a population-based time-series study of antidepressant and antipsychotic medication dispensing to children and adolescents ≤18 years old between September 1, 2014, and March 31, 2022. We measured monthly population-adjusted rates of antidepressant and antipsychotics obtained from the IQVIA Geographic Prescription Monitor (GPM) database. We used structural break analyses to identify the pandemic month(s) when changes in the dispensing of antidepressants and antipsychotics occurred. We used interrupted time series models to quantify changes in dispensing following the structural break and compare observed and expected use of these drugs. Overall, we found higher-than-expected dispensing of antidepressants and antipsychotics in children and youth. Specifically, we observed an immediate step decrease in antidepressant dispensing associated with a structural break in April 2020 (-55.8 units per 1,000 individuals; 95% confidence intervals [CI] CI: -117.4 to 5.8), followed by an increased monthly trend in the rate of antidepressant dispensing of 13.0 units per 1,000 individuals (95% CI: 10.2-15.9). Antidepressant dispensing was consistently greater than predicted from September 2020 onward. Antipsychotic dispensing increased immediately following a June 2020 structural break (26.4 units per 1,000 individuals; 95% CI: 15.8-36.9) and did not change appreciably thereafter. Antipsychotic dispensing was higher than predicted at all time points from June 2020 onward. We found higher-than-expected dispensing of antidepressants and antipsychotics in children and youth. These increases were sustained through nearly two years of observation and are especially concerning in light of the potential for harm with the long-term use of antipsychotics in children. Further research is required to understand the clinical implications of these findings.

Impact of national recommendations for routine pertussis vaccination during pregnancy on infant pertussis in Ontario, Canada: a population-based time-series study

BackgroundIn February 2018, Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended antenatal tetanus–diphtheria–acellular pertussis (Tdap) immunization in every pregnancy regardless of previous Tdap immunization history. We examined the impact of the NACI recommendation on rates of infant pertussis in Ontario, Canada.MethodsWe conducted a population-based time-series study of all live births in Ontario between August 1, 2011 and February 28, 2020. We used interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models to examine the impact of the NACI recommendation on monthly rates of pertussis among infants ≤ 3 months of age.ResultsWe observed 675 incident cases of pertussis among 1,368,024 infants 3 months of age or less between August 2011 and February 2020. The average monthly percent change in infant pertussis during the period up to and including publication of the NACI guidance and the period following publication were 0.0% (95% CI: -0.4–0.3%) and − 0.8% (95% CI -2.3% to -0.1%), respectively. Following interventional ARIMA modelling, publication of the NACI guidance was not associated with a statistically significant decrease in the monthly pertussis incidence trend (-0.67 cases per 100,000 infants; p = 0.73).ConclusionPublication of national recommendations for antenatal Tdap immunization in every pregnancy did not significantly reduce infant pertussis rates. This may reflect the persistently low rate of antenatal vaccination following publication of the recommendations. Expanding the scope of practice of allied health care providers to include antenatal Tdap immunization and patient education regarding antenatal pertussis immunization should be considered to further optimize uptake of vaccination.

Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality by Age, Sex, and Subtype/Lineage: Population-Based Time-Series Study With a Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Model.

Accurate estimation of the influenza death burden is of great significance for influenza prevention and control. However, few studies have considered the short-term harvesting effects of influenza on mortality when estimating influenza-associated excess deaths by cause of death, age, sex, and subtype/lineage. This study aimed to estimate the cause-, age-, and sex-specific excess mortality associated with influenza and its subtypes and lineages in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2018. Distributed-lag nonlinear models were fitted to estimate the excess mortality related to influenza subtypes or lineages for different causes of death, age groups, and sex based on daily time-series data for mortality, influenza, and meteorological factors. A total of 199,777 death certificates were included in the study. The average annual influenza-associated excess mortality rate (EMR) was 25.06 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 19.85-30.16) per 100,000 persons; 7142 of 8791 (81.2%) deaths were due to respiratory or cardiovascular mortality (EMR 20.36, 95% eCI 16.75-23.74). Excess respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in people aged 60 to 79 years and those aged ≥80 years accounted for 32.9% (2346/7142) and 63.7% (4549/7142) of deaths, respectively. The male to female ratio (MFR) of excess death from respiratory diseases was 1.34 (95% CI 1.17-1.54), while the MFR for excess death from cardiovascular disease was 0.72 (95% CI 0.63-0.82). The average annual excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates attributed to influenza A (H3N2), B/Yamagata, B/Victoria, and A (H1N1) were 8.47 (95% eCI 6.60-10.30), 5.81 (95% eCI 3.35-8.25), 3.68 (95% eCI 0.81-6.49), and 2.83 (95% eCI -1.26 to 6.71), respectively. Among these influenza subtypes/lineages, A (H3N2) had the highest excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates for people aged 60 to 79 years (20.22, 95% eCI 14.56-25.63) and ≥80 years (180.15, 95% eCI 130.75-227.38), while younger people were more affected by A (H1N1), with an EMR of 1.29 (95% eCI 0.07-2.32). The mortality displacement of influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B/Yamagata was 2 to 5 days, but 5 to 13 days for B/Victoria. Influenza was associated with substantial mortality in Guangzhou, occurring predominantly in the elderly, even after considering mortality displacement. The mortality burden of influenza B, particularly B/Yamagata, cannot be ignored. Contrasting sex differences were found in influenza-associated excess mortality from respiratory diseases and from cardiovascular diseases; the underlying mechanisms need to be investigated in future studies. Our findings can help us better understand the magnitude and time-course of the effect of influenza on mortality and inform targeted interventions for mitigating the influenza mortality burden, such as immunizations with quadrivalent vaccines (especially for older people), behavioral campaigns, and treatment strategies.

Geographic Accessibility of Retail Cannabis in Northern California and Prenatal Cannabis Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Prenatal cannabis use is associated with health risks for mothers and their children. Prior research suggests that rates of prenatal cannabis use in Northern California increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is unknown whether increases varied with the local cannabis retail and policy environment. To test whether pandemic-related increases in prenatal cannabis use were greater among pregnant individuals with greater retail availability of cannabis around their homes or among those living in jurisdictions that allowed storefront retailers. A cross-sectional, population-based time series study used data from pregnancies in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care system screened for cannabis use before (January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020) and during (April 1 to December 31, 2020) the early COVID-19 pandemic. Proximity to the nearest retailer and number of retailers within a 15-minute drive from one's home and local cannabis storefront retailer policy (banned vs permitted) were calculated. Interrupted time series models were fit using multiplicative and additive Poisson regression, adjusting for age and race and ethnicity. The COVID-19 pandemic. Prenatal cannabis use based on universal urine toxicology tests conducted during early pregnancy at entrance to prenatal care. The sample (n = 99 127 pregnancies) included 26.2% Asian or Pacific Islander, 6.8% Black, 27.6% Hispanic, 34.4% non-Hispanic White, and 4.9% other, unknown, or multiracial individuals, with a mean (SD) age of 30.8 (5.3) years. Prenatal cannabis use before (6.8%) and during (8.2%) the pandemic was associated with closer proximity to a retailer, greater retailer density, and residing in a jurisdiction that permitted vs banned retailers. There was a greater absolute increase in cannabis use from before to during the pandemic among those within a 10-minute drive (<10 minutes: adjusted rate difference [aRD], 0.93 cases/100 patients; 95% CI, 0.56-1.29 cases/100 patients; ≥10 minutes: aRD, 0.40 cases/100 patients; 95% CI, 0.12-0.68 cases/100 patients; interaction P = .02). Otherwise, relative and absolute rates increased similarly across categories of cannabis retailer proximity/density and local policy (interaction P > .05). Prenatal cannabis use was more common among individuals living in areas with greater retail availability of cannabis. Although relative rates increased similarly during the pandemic regardless of local cannabis retail and policy environment, there was a larger absolute increase associated with living closer to a storefront cannabis retailer. Continued monitoring of local cannabis policy, the retail environment, and prenatal cannabis use is needed.

Temporal trend of mortality and hospitalization for chronic kidney disease in adults from Northern Brazil.

We aimed to evaluate mortality and hospital admissions for chronic kidney disease in young adults according to sex and state in the northern region of Brazil, between 1996 and 2017. A population-based time series study using official data on mortality and hospital admissions due to chronic kidney disease in individuals aged 20 to 49 years old, residents of the northern region of Brazil, in the periods 1996–2017 and to 2008–2017, respectively. Chronic kidney disease was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (N18).The evolution of mortality from chronic kidney disease decreased by 0.881% per year over the period (1996–2017). In the states of Acre and Amapá, there was a reduction of 5.85% and –5.68% per year, respectively, and in Tocantins, an increase of 4.16% per year. The incidence of hospitalization did not vary between 2008 and 2017. However, 2 states showed an increase in hospitalization rates: Acre (6.08% per year) and Pará (2.83% per year), and 2 states showed a reduction: Amazonas (5.09% per year) and Tocantins (6.23% per year).In general, there was decrease in mortality rate overtime. However, rate of mortality due to chronic kidney disease increased in the state of Tocantins. The evolution of hospitalization due to chronic kidney disease in a population of young adults remained stationary.

Association of meteorological factors and ambient air pollution on medical care utilization for urolithiasis: a population-based time-series study

BackgroundTo identify the association of meteorological factors/ambient air pollutants with medical care utilization for urolithiasis and estimate the effect size/time lags.MethodsThis is a population-based time-series analysis of 300,000 urolithiasis cases from eight large metropolitan areas in Korea. Seventeen meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants were measured daily during 2002–2017 for each metropolis. Data on daily medical utilization owing to urolithiasis were collected. A generalized additive model was used while factoring in the nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors/ambient air pollutants and urolithiasis and a time lag of ≤10 days. A multivariate analysis was performed. Backward elimination with an Akaike information criterion was used for fitting the multivariate model.ResultsUrolithiasis was significantly associated with average temperature, diurnal temperature range, sunshine duration, particulate matter (PM) ≤2.5 μm, and carbon monoxide (CO) levels. The incidence of ureteral stones was positively correlated with average temperature, PM ≤2.5 μm level, and CO level (time lags 0–9, 2–4, and 0–9 days, respectively). The incidence of renal stones was positively correlated with PM ≤2.5 μm and CO levels (time lags 2–4 and 0–9 days, respectively). PM ≤2.5 μm (0.05 and 0.07% per 10 μg/m3) and CO (2.05 and 2.25% per 0.1 ppm) conferred the highest excess risk on ureteral and renal stones.ConclusionsUrolithiasis is affected by various meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants, PM ≤2.5 μm, and CO levels may be novel potential risk factors for this condition.

Acute Effects of Air Pollution on Ischemic Heart Disease Hospitalizations: A Population-Based Time-Series Study in Wuhan, China, 2017-2018.

Evidence of the acute effects of air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations based on the entire population of a megacity in central China is lacking. All IHD hospitalization records from 2017 to 2018 were obtained from the Wuhan Information Center of Health and Family Planning. Daily air pollutant concentrations and meteorological data were synchronously collected from the Wuhan Environmental Protection Bureau. A time-series study using generalized additive models was conducted to systematically examine the associations between air pollutants and IHD hospitalizations. Stratified analyses by gender, age, season, hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia were performed. In total, 139,616 IHD hospitalizations were included. Short-term exposure to air pollutants was positively associated with IHD hospitalizations. The age group ≥76 was at higher exposure risk, and the associations appeared to be more evident in cold seasons. PM2.5 and PM10 appeared to have greater effects on males and those without hypertension or diabetes, whereas NO2 and SO2 had greater effects on females and those with hypertension or diabetes. The risk of IHD hospitalization due to air pollutants was greater in people without hyperlipidemia. Our study provides new evidence of the effects of air pollution on the increased incidence of IHD in central China.

Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and type 2 diabetes mortality: A population-based time series study

Acute health effects of air pollution on diabetes risk have not been fully studied in developing countries and the results remain inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate the association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) mortality in China. Data on T2DM mortality from 2013 to 2019 were obtained from the Cause of Death Reporting System (CDRS) of Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Air pollution data for the same period were collected from 10 national air quality monitoring stations of Wuhan Ecology and Environment Institute, including daily average PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2. Meteorological data including daily average temperature and relative humidity were collected from Wuhan Meteorological Bureau. Generalized additive models (GAM) based on quasi-Poisson distribution were applied to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and daily T2DM deaths. A total of 9837 T2DM deaths were recorded during the study period in Wuhan. We found that short-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2 were positively associated with T2DM mortality, and gaseous pollutants appeared to have greater effects than particulate matter (PM). For the largest effect, per 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 (lag 02), PM10 (lag 02), SO2 (lag 03), and NO2 (lag 02) were significantly associated with 1.099% (95% CI: 0.451, 1.747), 1.016% (95% CI: 0.517, 1.514), 3.835% (95% CI: 1.480, 6.189), and 1.587% (95% CI: 0.646, 2.528) increase of daily T2DM deaths, respectively. Stratified analysis showed that females or elderly population aged 65 and above were more susceptible to air pollution exposure. In conclusion, short-term exposure to air pollution was significantly associated with a higher risk of T2DM mortality. Further research is required to verify our findings and elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan

ObjectivesTo investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics.DesignWe conducted time-series analysis to...

Association between ambient air pollution and mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Wuhan, China: a population-based time-series study.

Evidence on the short-term effects of ambient air pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality is still not conclusive. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between them in Wuhan China. Daily death numbers, concentrations of air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3), and meteorological characteristics in Wuhan from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2019, were collected. Time-series analysis using generalized additive model was applied. The results showed that a total of 16,150 deaths (7.37 deaths per day) from COPD were observed. The daily average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3 were 59.03, 90.48, 12.91, 48.84, and 91.77 μg/m3, respectively. In single pollutant model, for every increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM10, SO2, and NO2 levels, COPD mortality increased by 0.583% (95% CI: 0.055–1.113%), 4.299% (95% CI: 0.978–7.729%), and 1.816% (95% CI: 0.515–3.313%) at lag03, respectively. No significant associations were found for PM2.5 and O3. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that females were more susceptible to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2. The concentrations of PM10, SO2, and NO2 were significantly associated with COPD mortality for older adults. The effects of PM2.5 and O3 on COPD mortality were higher in warm period. In two-pollutant models, the significantly positive associations between SO2 and NO2 and COPD mortality remained after adjusting for PM2.5 or O3. In conclusions, short-term exposure to PM10, SO2, and NO2 are significantly associated with a higher risk of COPD mortality. Female or elderly are more susceptible to air pollution. It is urgent to implement the environmental protection policy.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-13180-6.

The effect of weather, air pollution and seasonality on the number of patient visits for epileptic seizures: A population-based time-series study

ObjectiveThe objective of the study was to explore the influences of seasonality, meteorological conditions, and air pollution exposure on the number of patients who visit the hospital due to seizures. MethodsOutpatient and inpatient data from the National Health Insurance Database of Taiwan from 2009 to 2013, meteorological data from the Meteorological Bureau, and air pollution exposure data from the Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring Stations were collected and integrated into daily time series data. The following data processing and analysis results are based on the mean of the 7 days' lag data of the 18 meteorological condition/air pollution exploratory factors to identify the critical meteorological conditions and air pollution exposure factors by executing univariate analysis. The average hospital visits for seizure per day by month were used as an index of observation. The effect of seasonality has also been examined. ResultsThe average visits per day by month had a significant association with 10 variables. Overall, the number of visits due to these factors has been estimated to be 71.529 (13.7%). The most obvious factors affecting the estimated number of visits include ambient temperature, CH4, and NO. Six air pollutants, namely CH4, NO, CO, NO2, PM2.5, and NMHC had a significantly positive correlation with hospital visits due to seizures. Moreover, the average daily number of hospital visits was significantly high in January and February (winter season in Taiwan) than in other months (R2 = 0.422). ConclusionThe prediction model obtained in this study indicates the necessity of rigorous monitoring and early warning of these air pollutants and climate changes by governments. Additionally, the study provided a firm basis for establishing prediction models to be used by other countries or for other diseases.

Incidence of hospitalization and mortality due to stroke in young adults, residents of developed regions in Brazil, 2008-2018.

IntroductionWe evaluated trends in hospitalization incidence and mortality due to hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in young adults, according to gender and developed regions in Brazil.MethodsBetween 2008–2018, we performed a population-based time-series study using official hospitalization and death data due to stroke, in individuals aged 10–49 years, from Southeast and South, Brazil. Data were based on reports from the Unified Health System of Hospital Information System and Mortality Information System. Stroke was defined by the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (I60–I63). A Prais-Winsten regression model was performed and the Annual Percentage Change was calculated.ResultsIn total, 78,123 hospitalizations of individuals aged 10–49 years were recorded, of which 59,448 (76%) resulted from hemorrhagic stroke (HS). The hospitalizations for HS was significantly decreased (- 4.37%) among men and women in both regions. The hospitalizations for ischemic stroke (IS) was flat, except between 2011 and 2018, when IS hospitalization rates increased. In the analysis by states, HS hospitalizations declined across all states, except for Espírito Santo, where it remained unchanged (p > 0.05). IS flat hospitalizations were observed in all states, except Espírito Santo, where it increased by 24.93%. In terms of mortality, 28,625 deaths were recorded, of which 26,548 (92.7%) resulted from HS. HS mortality decreased significantly by -3.48%and IS mortality by -3.84%. Decreases also occurred in all Southeast and South states (p < 0.05). IS remained unchanged across all states, except Minas Gerais, where it decreased by -14.95%.ConclusionsWe identified a decline in the hospitalizations and mortality of HS and a flat trend for IS in developed regions of Brazil. The recent period (2011–2018) demonstrated increasing rates in the hospitalizations of IS in both regions and genders. The mortality rates for HS and IS decreased between 2008–2018 in Southeast and South Brazil for both genders.

Influenza-associated cardiovascular mortality in older adults in Beijing, China: a population-based time-series study

ObjectiveThis study comprehensively estimated the excess cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to influenza in an older (age ≥65 years) population.DesignEcological study.SettingAggregated data from administrative systems on CVD mortality, influenza surveillance...

Community-Based Antibiotic Prescribing Attributable to Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Other Common Respiratory Viruses in Young Children: A Population-Based Time-series Study of Scottish Children.

Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, such as for viral illness, remains common in primary care. The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of community-prescribed antibiotics to children aged less than 5 years attributable to common respiratory viruses. We fitted time-series negative binomial models to predict weekly antibiotic prescribing rates from positive viral pathogen tests for the period 1 April 2009 through 27 December 2017 using comprehensive, population-based administrative data for all children (<5 years) living in Scotland. Multiple respiratory viral pathogens were considered, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhinovirus, and human parainfluenza (HPIV) types 1-4. We estimated the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions explained by virus circulation according to type of virus, by age group, presence of high-risk chronic conditions, and antibiotic class. We included data on 6 066 492 antibiotic prescriptions among 452 877 children. The antibiotic-prescribing rate among all Scottish children (<5 years) was 609.7 per 1000 child-years. Our final model included RSV, influenza, HMPV, HPIV-1, and HPIV-3. An estimated 6.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.6-8.3%), 2.4% (1.7-3.1%), and 2.3% (.8-3.9%) of antibiotics were attributable to RSV, influenza, and HMPV, respectively. RSV was consistently associated with the highest proportion of prescribed antibiotics, particularly among children without chronic conditions and for amoxicillin and macrolide prescriptions. Nearly 14% of antibiotics prescribed to children in this study were estimated to be attributable to common viruses for which antibiotics are not recommended. A future RSV vaccine could substantially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing among children.

INDICATORS OF MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY BY FEMUR FRACTURES IN OLDER PEOPLE: A DECADE-LONG STUDY IN BRAZILIAN HOSPITALS.

ABSTRACTObjective:To evaluate the profile of femur fractures in older adults in Brazil between 2008 and 2018.Methods:Population-based time series study with data from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (Datasus), including 480,652 hospitalizations, of adults from 60 years and over, with hip fracture (ICD10-S72).Results:There was an increase of 76.9% in the hospitalization register (mean 5.87%/year) and an average incidence rate of 19.46 fractures for every 10,000 older adults. In total, 68% of hospitalizations were female, 28% from São Paulo. The average length of stay was 8.9 days, being higher in the Northern Region (11.8) and in the Federal District (18.7). Average mortality rate was 5%, being higher in men (5.45%) and over 80 years old. Northeast Region had the lowest mortality rate (3.54%). Southeast Region had the highest rate (5.53%). Total cost of hospitalizations was R$ 1.1 billion, with an average of R$ 100 million/year. Average cost per hospitalization was higher in the Southern Region (R$ 2,491.00).Conclusion:Femoral fracture is an important cause of mortality among older adults, with a higher incidence in women but higher mortality in men, with high cost to the system and regional differences. Level of Evidence II, Economic and decision analyses - developing an economic or decision model.

Acute effect of daily fine particulate matter pollution on cerebrovascular mortality in Shanghai, China: a population-based time series study

Numerous studies have investigated the impacts of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on human health. In this study, we examined the association of daily PM2.5 concentrations with the number of deaths for the cerebrovascular disease on the same day, using the generalized additive model (GAM) controlling for temporal trend and meteorological variables. We used the data between 2012 and 2014 from Shanghai, China, where the adverse health effects of PM2.5 have been of particular concern. Three different approaches (principal component analysis, shrinkage smoothers, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization) were used in GAM to handle multicollinear meteorological variables. Our results indicate that the average daily concentration of PM2.5 in Shanghai was high, 55 μg/m3, with an average daily death for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) of 62. There was 1.7% raised cerebrovascular disease deaths per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration in the unadjusted model. However, PM2.5 concentration was no longer associated with CVD deaths after controlling for meteorological variables. The results were consistent in the three modelling techniques that we used. As a large number of people are exposed to air pollution, further investigation with longer time period including individual-level information is needed to examine the association.

Associations between ambient air pollution and mortality from all causes, pneumonia, and congenital heart diseases among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China: A population-based time series study

BackgroundPrevious studies have mainly focused on the associations between particulate matters and infant mortality. However, evidence regarding the associations between gaseous pollutants and mortality among children aged <5 years remains sparse. ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to investigate the associations between ambient air pollution and death among children aged <5 years in Beijing, China, and explore the impact of age, gender and specific causes of death on these associations. MethodsConcentrations of ambient air pollution and the number of deaths among children aged <5 years in Beijing from January 2014 to September 2016 were extracted from authoritative electronic databases. The associations were estimated for a single-month lag from the current month up to the previous 5 months (lag0-lag5) and moving averages of the current and previous months (lag01-lag05) using generalized additive Poisson regression (adjusted for time trends, season, meteorological variables and holidays). Subgroup analyses related to age, gender and specific diseases were performed. Two-pollutant models were used to evaluate the possible role of single pollutants. ResultsSulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) demonstrated the strongest associations with death among children aged <5 years at lag0, and the estimates decreased or even turned negative with the increasing lag periods. For an interquartile range increase in SO2, NO2 and CO at lag0, the odds ratios (OR) were 1.332 (95% CI 1.152-1.539), 1.383 (95% CI 1.113-1.718) and 1.273 (95% CI 1.028-1.575). However, CO lost significance after adjusting for SO2 and NO2, and PM2.5 gained significance (OR 1.548, 95% CI 1.061-2.258) after adjusting for PM10. The ORs for SO2 and NO2 remained the most stable across all two-pollutant models. The associations for children aged 1–5 years were stronger than those reported for infants at lag0 but lower at the other lag months. The pollutant associations were stronger for congenital heart disease-related death than overall and pneumonia-related death. We did not find significant differences in terms of gender. ConclusionExposure to air pollution may increase the incidence of death among children aged <5 years. SO2 and NO2 may be the most stable pollutants reflecting associations between air pollution and death, deserving further attention. Children with congenital heart diseases are more susceptible to air pollution. Therefore, it is urgent to implement the clean air targets established by WHO and reduce the exposure of children to air pollution.

Evaluation of the Swedish National Stroke Campaign: A population-based time-series study.

Time delay from stroke onset to hospital arrival is an important obstacle to recanalization therapy. To increase knowledge about stroke symptoms and potentially reduce delayed hospital arrival, a 27-month national public information campaign was conducted in Sweden. To assess the effects of a national stroke campaign in Sweden. This nationwide study included 97,840 patients with acute stroke, admitted to hospital and registered in the Swedish Stroke Register from 1 October 2010 to 31 December 2014 (one year before the campaign started to one year after the campaign ended). End points were (1) proportion of patients arriving at hospital within 3 h of stroke onset and (2) the proportion < 80 years of age receiving recanalization therapy. During the campaign, both the proportion of patients arriving at hospital within 3 h (p < 0.05) and the proportion receiving recanalization therapy (p < 0.001) increased. These proportions remained stable the year after the campaign, and no significant improvements with respect to the two end points were observed during the year preceding the campaign. In a multivariable logistic regression model comparing the last year of the campaign with the year preceding the campaign, the odds ratio of arriving at hospital within 3 h was 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.09) and that of receiving recanalization was 1.34 (95% CI: 1.24-1.46). The Swedish National Stroke Campaign was associated with a sustained increase in the proportion of patients receiving recanalization therapy and a small but significant improvement in the proportion arriving at hospital within 3 h.