Population-based Surveillance Research Articles

Sex Differences in Trends in Stroke Recurrence and Postrecurrence Mortality 2000-2020: Population-Based Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi Project.

This study was undertaken to delineate 21-year sex-specific trends in recurrence and postrecurrence mortality. Between 2000 and 2020, first-ever ischemic stroke (IS) patients, ascertained from the population-based BASIC (Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi) project in South Texas, were followed for recurrent stroke and all-cause mortality until December 31, 2020. Multivariable regression models with an interaction between calendar year and sex were used to estimate sex-specific trends and sex differences in recurrence and postrecurrence mortality. Of the 6,057 IS patients (median age = 69 years, 49.8% women), 654 (10.8%) had a recurrence and 399 (47.7%) had postrecurrence mortality during 5 years of follow-up. In 2000, women had 2.5% higher albeit non-statistically significant 5-year risk of recurrence than men in absolute scale. With the trend declining in women by 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -10.8 to -4.5%) and in men by 3.6% (95% CI = -6.5% to -0.7%), the risk at the end of the study period was 1.5% (95% CI = -0.3% to 3.6%) lower among women than men. For postrecurrence mortality, the risk was 10.2% lower among women in 2000, but the sex difference was 3.3% by the end of the period, which was due to a larger overall increase in the risk among women than men over the entire time period. The declines in recurrent stroke suggest successful secondary stroke prevention, especially in women. However, the continued high postrecurrence mortality among both sexes at the end of study period emphasizes the need for ongoing interventions to improve prognosis in those who have had recurrent cerebrovascular events. ANN NEUROL 2024.

Multiplicity of benign breast disease lesions and breast cancer risk in African American women

The risk of developing subsequent breast cancer is higher in women diagnosed with benign breast disease (BBD) but these studies were primarily performed in non-Hispanic white populations. Still, these estimates have been used to inform breast cancer risk models that are being used clinically across all racial and ethnic groups. Given the high breast cancer mortality rates among African American (AA) women, it is critical to study BBD in this population, to ensure the risk models that include this information perform adequately. This study utilized data from AA women who underwent benign breast biopsies at a hospital served by the University Pathology Group in Detroit, Michigan, from 1998 to 2010. Patients were followed for subsequent breast cancers through the population-based Metropolitan Detroit Cancer Surveillance System (MDCSS). BBD lesion scores were assigned to represent the severity or extent of benign breast lesions, with higher scores indicating a greater number of distinct lesion types. Of 3,461 eligible AA women with BBD in the cohort, 6.88% (n=238) subsequently developed breast cancer. Examined individually, six of the eleven lesions (apocrine metaplasia, ductal hyperplasia, lobular hyperplasia, intraductal papilloma, sclerosing adenosis, columnar alterations and radial scars) were significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer after adjustment for age and year of biopsy and were further considered in multiple lesion models. For every different type of benign breast lesion, subsequent risk of breast cancer increased by 25% (RR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.42) after adjustment for age at biopsy and proliferative versus non-proliferative disease. In summary, this study affirms the increased breast cancer risk in AA women with BBD, particularly in those with multiple lesions. These findings have implications for the management of breast cancer risk in millions of women affected by BBD, a high risk group that could benefit from personalized surveillance and risk reduction strategies.

Prevalence and Genetic Diversity of Adenovirus 40/41, Astrovirus, and Sapovirus in Children with Acute Gastroenteritis in Kansas City 2011-2016.

Most U.S. acute gastroenteritis (AGE) episodes in children are attributed to norovirus, whereas very little information is available on adenovirus 40/41 (AdV40/41), astrovirus or sapovirus. The New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) conducted prospective, active, population-based AGE surveillance in young children. We tested and typed stool specimens collected between December 2011 to June 2016 from one NVSN site in Kansas City for the three viruses, and calculated hospitalization and emergency department (ED) detection rate. Of 3,205 collected specimens, 2,453 (76.5%) were from AGE patients (339 inpatients and 2,114 ED patients) and 752 (23.5%) were from healthy controls (HC). In AGE patients, astrovirus was detected in 94 (3.8%), sapovirus in 252 (10.3%) and AdV40/41 in 101 (4.5%) of 2249 patients. In HC, astrovirus was detected in 13 (1.7%) and sapovirus in 15 (2.0%) specimens. Astrovirus type 1 (37.7%) and genogroup I sapoviruses (59.3%) were most prevalent.Hospitalization rates were 5 (AdV40/41), 4 (astrovirus) and 8 (sapovirus) per 100,000 children <11 years old, whereas ED rates were 2.4 (AdV40/41), 1.9 (astrovirus) and 5.3 (sapovirus) per 1000 children <5 years old. Overall, AdV40/41, astrovirus, and sapovirus were detected in 18.6% of AGE in a large pediatric hospital in Kansas City.

Maternal PM2.5 exposure and hypospadias risk in Chinese offspring: Insights from a nationwide surveillance-based study

Research on the association between maternal PM2.5 exposure and hypospadias risk in male offspring, particularly in highly polluted areas, has been limited and inconsistent. This study leveraged data from China’s National Population-based Birth Defects Surveillance System spanning the years 2013 to 2019, and employed sophisticated machine learning models to estimate daily PM2.5 levels and other pollutants for mothers at a 1-km resolution and a 6-km buffer surrounding maternal residences. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and hypospadias risk. For sensitivity analyses, stratification analysis was conducted, and models for one-pollutant and two-pollutants, as well as distributed lag nonlinear models, were constructed. Of the 1194,431 boys studied, 1153 cases of hypospadias were identified. A 10 μg/m3 increase in maternal PM2.5 exposure during preconception and the first trimester was associated with an elevated risk of isolated hypospadias, with Odds Ratios (ORs) of 1.102 (95% CI: 1.023–1.188) and 1.089 (95% CI: 1.007–1.177) at the 1-km grid, and 1.122 (95% CI: 1.034–1.218) and 1.143 (95% CI: 1.048–1.246) within the 6-km buffer. Higher quartiles of PM2.5 exposure were associated with increased odds ratios compared to the lowest quartile. These findings highlight a significant association between PM2.5 exposure during the critical conception period and an elevated risk of isolated hypospadias in children, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to reduce PM2.5 exposure among expectant mothers.

Population Based Electronic Surveillance Tool to Identify Risk Factors for Developing Cervical Cancer- A Study Protocol

Background: Cervical cancer remains a significant global health concern, with well-established risk factors. Population-based electronic surveillance tools offer a promising avenue for identifying risk factors associated with cervical cancer development way before it becomes an actual concern for a woman. The objective of this study is to understand and to support the app- based decision-making tool for identifying risk factors of cervical cancer for the women between 30-60 years of age. Method: The study will be conducted in the selected Sampoorna Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) clinics at Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh (UP). A rigorous review of database was conducted to summarize the evidence on informatics available for early identification of cervical cancer app. An app-based decision- making tool will be developed to identify and detect the high- risk population developing cervical cancer. The app then will be shared with health workers at Sampoorna clinics and will be capacitated for using it to collect real time data. Conclusion: The utilization of a population-based electronic surveillance tool will facilitate the identification of various risk factors contributing to cervical cancer development. The methodology process will help to comprehend the analysis providing the insights. This approach has the potential to enhance targeted interventions, public health policies, and personalized screening programs to mitigate the burden of cervical cancer. The objective of this paper is to understand and to support the design of dashboards for creating transparency and accountability.

The impact of pneumococcal serotype replacement on the effectiveness of a national immunization program: a population-based active surveillance cohort study in New Zealand

In Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) PCV7 was introduced in 2008, then PCV10 in 2011 and PCV13 in 2014. In 2017 PCV10 was re-introduced, replacing PCV13. In the present study, we investigate the resultant rapidly changing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) epidemiology. We compare the IPD incidence rate ratio (IRR) in NZ (2022 versus 2020) with other countries, and describe the IPD epidemiology (including trends in overall IPD and serotype 19A, and antimicrobial resistance) within NZ. Additionally, we performed a genomic-epidemiology investigation identifying the most common 19A sequence types and associated risk factors. Though IPD incidence rates have increased in the US and Australia (2021-22) after declines in 2020, in NZ the incidence rate is the highest since 2011 with a significantly higher IRR than US (p<0.01). Incidence rates among children <2 and adults 65 or over in 2022 are the highest since 2009, driven by significant increases of serotype 19A (p=0.01). Māori and Pacific peoples are experiencing the highest rates since 2009. Further, penicillin resistance among 19A isolates has increased from 39% (2012) to 84% (2021) (p=0.02). Genomic sequencing identified the more virulent ST-2062 as most common among 19A isolates sequenced, increasing from 5% (2010) to 55% (2022). With very high incidence rates of IPD in NZ, inadequate protection against 19A, increasing resistance, and a more virulent 19A clade, targeted public health campaigns and increased PCV13 availability are needed. The NZ Ministry of Health funds IPD surveillance and typing in NZ.

Effectiveness of the varicella vaccine in the real world, a matched case-control study

BackgroundUniversal varicella vaccination has been introduced in many countries, but there are a number of important differences in their vaccination strategies. It is essential to establish a vaccination program that can maximize the benefits of varicella vaccine, but there is a lack of comprehensive research on the effectiveness of varicella vaccine in different vaccination status. MethodsUsing data from population-based surveillance platforms we conducted a 1:2 matched case-control study. The cases were clinically diagnosed varicella with onset from 2017 to 2021, 1–14 years old in Chaoyang District, Beijing. The controls were matched according to date of birth (±1 month), sex and residence. The vaccination data of the subjects were obtained from the Childhood Immunization Information Management System in Beijing. Using conditional logistic regression models with or without interaction terms, we evaluated the effectiveness of varicella vaccine in different vaccination status. ResultsA total of 2528 cases and 5056 controls were enrolled. This study found that whether the time since last vaccination was adjusted had a substantial effect on the comparing vaccine effectiveness (VE) between subgroups. After adjustment for the time since last vaccination, 1) the incremental VE of 2-dose was 49.6 % (95 % Confidence Interval [CI], 38.8–58.6) compared with 1-dose (93.9 % vs. 88.0 %); 2) Among children who received one dose, the risk of chickenpox in children vaccinated at 18–23 months was 1.382 (95 %CI, 1.084–1.762) times that in children vaccinated at 12–17 months. 3) the VE with less than one, two, and three year intervals is higher than that with six-year-intervals (P < 0.05), respectively. ConclusionsWhen comparing VE between subgroups of different vaccination status, the time since last vaccination should be adjusted. The first dose of varicella vaccine should be given as early as the second year of life, and the second dose can improve vaccine effectiveness.

The Impact of Social Determinants of Maternal Mental Health in Marginalized Mothers.

Background: A deeper understanding of the key determinants of maternal mental health is important for improving care for women, especially women who are at an economic disadvantage. Objectives: To explore the associations of select social determinants: access, social support, and stress, with the onset of antepartum depression in low-income mothers. Participants: The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) is an ongoing, population-based surveillance system with selected data from 2016 to 2019, establishing a randomly selected sample of women with a recent live birth at most 4 months postdelivery, between 1,300 and 3,400 women per state (n ∼ 162,558). Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the phase 8 PRAMS was adapted to measure social support, access, stress, and their relationships with the onset of antepartum depression in low-income mothers. To assess low-income marginalization, a threshold was established based on income levels within 130% of the federal poverty level; antepartum (n ∼ 41,289). Results: The defined access, social support, and stress factors showed a statistically significant association with the onset of antepartum depression among low-income mothers. Of women in this sample, 22.6% indicated antepartum depression (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.066). Negative social support indicators were associated with an increased likelihood of antepartum depression; 3.71 increased odds of depression for abuse during pregnancy, and 0.79 decreased odds with positive acknowledgment of paternity. Access indicator terms showed an association with the decreased likelihood of antepartum depression through breastfeeding information support (Info from Baby Doc, odds ratio [OR] = 0.86), prenatal care utilization (12+ visits, OR = 0.82), and specific insurance type (insurance by job, OR = 0.82). All instances of stressful life events showed an increased likelihood of depression during pregnancy (for majority of stressful life events: OR >1.12). Conclusions: Economically marginalized mothers face unmet social and health care needs leading to poorer outcomes during pregnancy. These findings provide additional support for improved policy and public health efforts, such as assessment, education, and interventions, to decrease prevalence and improve treatment for antepartum depression among marginalized mothers.

The Walter Reed Project, Kisumu Field Station: Impact of Research on Malaria Policy, Management, and Prevention.

The Walter Reed Project is a collaboration between the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research of the United States Department of Defense and the Kenya Medical Research Institute. The Kisumu field station, comprising four campuses, has until recently been devoted primarily to research on malaria countermeasures. The Kombewa Clinical Research Center is dedicated to conducting regulated clinical trials of therapeutic and vaccine candidates in development. The center's robust population-based surveillance platform, along with an active community engagement strategy, guarantees consistent recruitment and retention of participants in clinical trials. The Malaria Diagnostic Center, backed by WHO-certified microscopists and a large malaria blood film collection, champions high-quality malaria diagnosis and strict quality assurance through standardized microscopy trainings. The Malaria Drug Resistance Laboratory leverages cutting-edge technology such as real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) to conduct comprehensive research on resistance markers and obtain information on drug efficacy. The laboratory has been working on validating artemisinin resistance markers and improving tracking methods for current and future antimalarial compounds. Finally, the Basic Science Laboratory employs advanced genomic technology to examine endpoints such as immunogenicity and genomic fingerprinting for candidate drugs and vaccine efficacy. Herein, we examine the site's significant contributions to malaria policy, management, and prevention practices in Kenya and around the world.

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors for birth defects: a study from population-based surveillance data

ObjectiveTo explore risk factors for birth defects (including a broad range of specific defects).MethodsData were derived from the Population-based Birth Defects Surveillance System in Hunan Province, China, 2014–2020. The surveillance population included all live births, stillbirths, infant deaths, and legal termination of pregnancy between 28 weeks gestation and 42 days postpartum. The prevalence of birth defects (number of birth defects per 1000 infants) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis (method: Forward, Wald, α = 0.05) and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were used to identify risk factors for birth defects. We used the presence or absence of birth defects (or specific defects) as the dependent variable, and eight variables (sex, residence, number of births, paternal age, maternal age, number of pregnancies, parity, and maternal household registration) were entered as independent variables in multivariate logistic regression analysis.ResultsOur study included 143,118 infants, and 2984 birth defects were identified, with a prevalence of 20.85% (95%CI: 20.10–21.60). Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that seven variables (except for parity) were associated with birth defects (or specific defects). There were five factors associated with the overall birth defects. The risk factors included males (OR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.39–1.61), multiple births (OR = 1.44, 95%CI: 1.18–1.76), paternal age < 20 (OR = 2.20, 95%CI: 1.19–4.09) or 20–24 (OR = 1.66, 95%CI: 1.42–1.94), maternal age 30–34 (OR = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.04–1.29) or > = 35 (OR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.33–1.81), and maternal non-local household registration (OR = 2.96, 95%CI: 2.39–3.67). Some factors were associated with the specific defects. Males were risk factors for congenital metabolic disorders (OR = 3.86, 95%CI: 3.15–4.72), congenital limb defects (OR = 1.34, 95%CI: 1.14–1.58), and congenital kidney and urinary defects (OR = 2.35, 95%CI: 1.65–3.34). Rural areas were risk factors for congenital metabolic disorders (OR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.01–1.44). Multiple births were risk factors for congenital heart defects (OR = 2.09, 95%CI: 1.55–2.82), congenital kidney and urinary defects (OR = 2.14, 95%CI: 1.05–4.37), and cleft lip and/or palate (OR = 2.85, 95%CI: 1.32–6.15). Paternal age < 20 was the risk factor for congenital limb defects (OR = 3.27, 95%CI: 1.10–9.71), 20–24 was the risk factor for congenital heart defects (OR = 1.64, 95%CI: 1.24–2.17), congenital metabolic disorders (OR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.11–2.21), congenital limb defects (OR = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.14–2.29), and congenital ear defects (OR = 2.13, 95%CI: 1.17–3.89). Maternal age < 20 was the risk factor for cleft lip and/or palate (OR = 3.14, 95%CI: 1.24–7.95), 30–34 was the risk factor for congenital limb defects (OR = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.09–1.73), >=35 was the risk factor for congenital heart defects (OR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.14–1.99), congenital limb defects (OR = 1.98, 95%CI: 1.41–2.78), and congenital ear defects (OR = 1.82, 95%CI: 1.06–3.10). Number of pregnancies = 2 was the risk factor for congenital nervous system defects (OR = 2.27, 95%CI: 1.19–4.32), >=4 was the risk factor for chromosomal abnormalities (OR = 2.03, 95%CI: 1.06–3.88) and congenital nervous system defects (OR = 3.03, 95%CI: 1.23–7.47). Maternal non-local household registration was the risk factor for congenital heart defects (OR = 3.57, 95%CI: 2.54–5.03), congenital metabolic disorders (OR = 1.89, 95%CI: 1.06–3.37), congenital limb defects (OR = 2.94, 95%CI: 1.86–4.66), and congenital ear defects (OR = 3.26, 95%CI: 1.60–6.65).ConclusionIn summary, several risk factors were associated with birth defects (including a broad range of specific defects). One risk factor may be associated with several defects, and one defect may be associated with several risk factors. Future studies should examine the mechanisms. Our findings have significant public health implications as some factors are modifiable or avoidable, such as promoting childbirths at the appropriate age, improving the medical and socio-economic conditions of non-local household registration residents, and devoting more resources to some specific defects in high-risk groups, which may help reducing birth defects in China.

U.S. Women with Invasive Cervical Cancer: Characteristics and Potential Barriers to Prevention.

Objectives: Although invasive cervical cancer (ICC) rates have declined since the advent of screening, the annual age-adjusted ICC rate in the United States remains 7.5 per 100,000 women. Failure of recommended screening and management often precedes ICC diagnoses. The study aimed to evaluate characteristics of women with incident ICC, including potential barriers to accessing preventive care. Materials and Methods: We abstracted medical records for patients with ICC identified during 2008-2020 in five U.S. population-based surveillance sites covering 1.5 million women. We identified evidence of adverse social and medical conditions, including uninsured/underinsured, language barrier, substance use disorder, incarceration, serious mental illness, severe obesity, or pregnancy at diagnosis. We calculated descriptive frequencies and compared potential barriers by race/ethnicity, and among women with and without symptoms at diagnosis using chi-square tests. Results: Among 1,606 women with ICC (median age: 49 years; non-White: 47.4%; stage I: 54.7%), the majority (68.8%) presented with symptoms. Forty-six percent of women had at least one identified potential barrier; 15% had multiple barriers. The most common potential barriers among all women were being underinsured/uninsured (17.3%), and language (17.1%). Presence of any potential barrier was more frequent among non-White women and women with than without symptoms (p < 0.05). Conclusions: In this population-based descriptive study of women with ICC, we identified adverse circumstances that might have prevented women from seeking screening and treatment to prevent cancer. Interventions to increase appropriate cervical cancer screening and management are critical for reducing cervical cancer rates.

Trends in temporal and spatial changes of Japanese encephalitis in Chinese mainland, 2004–2019: A population-based surveillance study

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a serious health concern in China, with approximately 80 % of global infections occurring in China. To develop effective prevention and control strategies, this study explored the epidemiological characteristics of JE in China based on spatiotemporal data, to understand the patterns and trends of JE incidence in different regions and time periods. MethodThe incidence and mortality rates of JE were extracted from the Public Health Data Center, the official website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2004 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was applied to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and annual percentage change in incidence and mortality of the JE. ResultsFrom 2004 to 2019, a total of 43,569 cases of JE were diagnosed, including 2081 deaths. The annual incidence rate of JE decreased from 0.4171/100,000 in 2004 to 0.0298/100,000 in 2019, with an annual percentage change (APC) of −13.5 % (P < 0.001). The annual mortality rate of JE showed three stages of change, with inflection points in 2006 and 2014. The incidence and mortality rates of JE have declined in all provinces of China, and more cases were reported in 0–14 years of age, accounting for nearly 80 % of all patients. ConclusionsThe morbidity and mortality rates of JE in China are generally on a downward trend, and emphasis should be placed on strengthening disease surveillance in special areas and populations, popularizing vaccination, and increasing publicity.

Distributions of candidate vaccine Targets, virulence Factors, and resistance features of invasive group B Streptococcus using Whole-Genome Sequencing: A Multicenter, population-based surveillance study

BackgroundGroup B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young infants worldwide. This study aimed to investigate candidate GBS vaccine targets, virulence factors, and antimicrobial resistance determinants. MethodsWe used whole-genome sequencing to characterize invasive GBS isolates from infants < 3 months of age obtained from a multicenter population-based study conducted from 2015 to 2021 in China. ResultsOverall, seven serotypes were detected from 278 GBS isolates, four (Ia, Ib, III, V) of which accounted for 97.8 %. We detected 30 sequence types (including 10 novel types) that were grouped into six clonal complexes (CCs: CC1, CC10, CC17, CC19, CC23 and CC651); three novel ST groups in CC17 were detected, and the rate of CC17, considered a hyperinvasive neonatal clone complex, was attached to 40.6 % (113/278). A total of 98.9 % (275/278) of isolates harbored at least one alpha-like protein gene. All GBS isolates contained at least one of three pilus backbone determinants and the pilus types PI-2b and PI-1 + PI-2a accounted for 79.8 % of the isolates. The 112 serotype III/CC17 GBS isolates were all positive for hvgA. Most of the isolates (75.2 %) were positive for serine-rich repeat glycoprotein determinants (srr1or srr2). Almost all isolates possessed cfb (99.6 %), c1IE (100 %), lmb (95.3 %) or pavA (100 %) gene. Seventy-seven percent of isolates harboured more than three antimicrobial resistance genes with 28.4 % (79/278) gyrA quinoloneresistancedeterminants mutation, 83.8 % (233/278) carrying tet cluster genes and 77.3 % (215/278) carrying erm genes which mediated fluoroquinolone, tetracycline and clindamycin resistance, respectively.“ ConclusionsThe findings from this large whole-genome sequence of GBS isolates establish important baseline data required for further surveillance and evaluating the impact of future vaccine candidates.

Population-based surveillance of congenital anomalies over 40 years (1981–2020): Results from the Paris Registry of Congenital Malformations (remaPAR)

IntroductionRegistries of congenital anomalies (CAs) play a key role in the epidemiological surveillance of CAs. The objective was to estimate the prevalence of CAs and proportions of prenatal diagnosis, terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) and infant mortality in the Paris Registry of Congenital Malformations (remaPAR) over 40 years, from 1981 to 2020. Material and methodsremaPAR records all births (live births, stillbirths ≥22 weeks of gestation and TOPFA at any gestational age) with CAs detected prenatally until the early neonatal period. We estimated the prevalence of CAs and proportions of prenatal diagnosis, TOPFA and infant mortality, overall and for a selected group of CAs in 3-year intervals. ResultsThe prevalence of CAs remained stable during the study period: 2.9 % of total births and 2.1 % of live births. Genetic anomalies were the most frequent subgroup (about 23 %), followed by congenital heart defects (about 22 %) and limb defects (about 20 %). Among non-genetic anomalies, the prevalence per 10,000 births was the highest for hypospadias (about 18 %) and the lowest for bilateral renal agenesis (about 1 %). Prenatal diagnoses increased from about 17 % in the 1980s to approximately 70 % in the most recent period (2018–2020), whereas the proportion of early TOPFA <16 weeks of gestation increased from 0.4 % to 14 %. Infant mortality ranged from 0 % for transverse limb reduction defects to 86 % for hypoplastic left heart syndrome. ConclusionThe overall prevalence of CAs was fairly stable in Paris from 1981 to 2020. Prenatal diagnoses substantially increased, accompanied by much smaller increases in TOPFA.

Health Conditions, Education Services, and Transition Planning for Adolescents With Autism.

Our objectives with this study were to describe the frequency of selected cooccurring health conditions and individualized education program (IEP) services and post-high school transition planning for adolescents with autism spectrum disorder and identify disparities by sex, intellectual ability, race or ethnicity, and geographic area. The study sample included 1787 adolescents born in 2004 who were identified as having autism through a health and education record review through age 16 years in 2020. These adolescents were part of a longitudinal population-based surveillance birth cohort from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network from 2004 to 2020 in 5 US catchment areas. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (47%) and anxiety (39%) were the most common cooccurring health conditions. Anxiety was less commonly identified for those with intellectual disability than those without. It was also less commonly identified among Black adolescents compared with White or Hispanic adolescents. There was wide variation across Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network sites in the provision of school-based IEP services. Students with intellectual disability were less likely to receive school-based mental health services and more likely to have a goal for postsecondary independent living skills compared with those without intellectual disability. A total of 37% of students did not participate in standardized testing. We identified disparities in the identification of cooccurring conditions and school-based IEP services, practices, and transition planning. Working with pediatric health and education providers, families, and adolescents with autism will be important to identify contributing factors and to focus efforts to reduce disparities in the supports and services adolescents with autism have access to and receive.

Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian Nationwide Analysis.

Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. Population-based surveillance cohorts in 8 provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.3-31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95% CI -0.05 to 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95% PI 28.1-34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatric patients (younger than 18 years) is increasing (AAPC 1.27%; 95% CI 0.82-1.67), but it is stable in adults (AAPC 0.26%; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95% PI 716-735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC 2.43%; 95% CI 2.32-2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95% PI 1,068-1,127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1,174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC 2.78%; 95% CI 2.75-2.81). Over the next decade, the Canadian health care systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

Population-based surveillance for birth defects potentially related to Zika virus infection including 3-year mortality and developmental outcomes, and Early Intervention Program service use-New York City, 2016 birth cohort.

In response to the 2015-2017 Zika virus outbreak, New York City (NYC) identified and monitored infants with birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus. Administrative data matches were used to describe the birth characteristics of children born in 2016 meeting screening criteria for birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus infection relative to other NYC births and to monitor mortality and Early Intervention Program use through age 2. Among 120,367 children born in NYC in 2016, 463 met screening criteria and 155 met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's case definition for birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus infection (1.3 per 1000; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.5). Post-neonatal deaths occurred among 7.7% of cases (12) and 5.2% of non-cases (8). Odds of referral to the Early intervention Program among children who met screening criteria were lower among children of mothers who were married (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37-0.97) and among children not classified as cases whose mothers were born in Latin America and the Caribbean (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-1.09). Prevalence of birth defects potentially related to congenital Zika virus infection was similar to that seen in other jurisdictions without local transmission. Birth defects attributable to congenital Zika virus infection may also have been present among screened children who did not meet the case definition.

Identifying patients with diagnosed cirrhosis in administrative health databases: a validation study.

Case ascertainment algorithms were developed and validated to identify people living with cirrhosis in administrative health data in Manitoba, Canada using primary care electronic medical records (EMR) to define the reference standards. We linked provincial administrative health data to primary care EMR data. The validation cohort included 116,675 Manitobans aged >18 years with at least one primary care visit between April 1998 and March 2015. Hospital records, physician billing claims, vital statistics, and prescription drug data were used to develop and test 93 case-finding algorithms. A validated case definition for primary care EMR data was the reference standard. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), Youden's index, area under the receiver operative curve, and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 116,675 people were in the validation cohort. The prevalence of cirrhosis was 1.4% (n = 1593). Algorithm sensitivity estimates ranged from 32.5% (95% CI 32.2-32.8) to 68.3% (95% CI 68.0-68.9) and PPV from 17.4% (95% CI 17.1-17.6) to 23.4% (95% CI 23.1-23.6). Specificity (95.5-98.2) and NPV (approximately 99%) were high for all algorithms. The algorithms had slightly higher sensitivity estimates among men compared with women, and individuals aged ≥45 years compared to those aged 18-44 years. Cirrhosis algorithms applied to administrative health data had moderate validity when a validated case definition for primary care EMRs was the reference standard. This study provides algorithms for identifying diagnosed cirrhosis cases for population-based research and surveillance studies.

Higher livestock abortion burden in arid and semi-arid lands, Kenya, 2019-2020.

Tracking livestock abortion patterns over time and across factors such as species and agroecological zones (AEZs) could inform policies to mitigate disease emergence, zoonoses risk, and reproductive losses. We conducted a year-long population-based active surveillance of livestock abortion between 2019 and 2020, in administrative areas covering 52% of Kenya's landmass and home to 50% of Kenya's livestock. Surveillance sites were randomly selected to represent all AEZs in the country. Local animal health practitioners electronically transmitted weekly abortion reports from each ward, the smallest administrative unit, to a central server, using a simple short messaging service (SMS). Data were analyzed descriptively by administrative unit, species, and AEZ to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and relationships with rainfall and temperature. Of 23,766 abortions reported in all livestock species, sheep and goats contributed 77%, with goats alone contributing 53%. Seventy-seven per cent (n = 18,280) of these abortions occurred in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) that primarily practice pastoralism production systems. While spatiotemporal clustering of cases was observed in May-July 2019 in the ASALs, there was a substantial seasonal fluctuation across AEZs. Kenya experiences high livestock abortion rates, most of which go unreported. We recommend further research to document the national true burden of abortions. In ASALs, studies linking pathogen, climate, and environmental surveillance are needed to assign livestock abortions to infectious or non-infectious aetiologies and conducting human acute febrile illnesses surveillance to detect any links with the abortions.

Early suppression policies protected pregnant women from COVID-19 in 2020: A population-based surveillance from the Nordic countries.

The Coronavirus 2019 Disease (COVID-19) pandemic reached the Nordic countries in March 2020. Public health interventions to limit viral transmission varied across different countries both in timing and in magnitude. Interventions indicated by an Oxford Stringency Index ≥50 were implemented early (March 13-17, 2020) in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland, and on March 26, 2020 in Sweden. The aim of the current study was to assess the incidence of COVID-19-related admissions of pregnant women in the Nordic countries in relation to the different national public health strategies during the first year of the pandemic. This is a meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies in the five Nordic countries with national or regional surveillance in the Nordic Obstetric Surveillance System (NOSS) collaboration: national data from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway, and regional data covering 31% of births in Sweden. The source population consisted of women giving birth in the included areas March 1-December 31, 2020. Pregnant women with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test ≤14 days before hospital admission were included, and admissions were stratified as either COVID-19-related or non-COVID (other obstetric healthcare). Information about public health policies was retrieved retrospectively. In total, 392 382 maternities were considered. Of these, 600 women were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 137 (22.8%) were admitted for COVID-19 symptoms. The pooled incidence of COVID-19 admissions per 1000 maternities was 0.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.2 to 1.2, I2 = 77.6, tau2 = 0.68, P = 0.0), ranging from no admissions in Iceland to 1.9 admissions in the Swedish regions. Interventions to restrict viral transmission were less stringent in Sweden than in the other Nordic countries. There was a clear variation in pregnant women's risk of COVID-19 admission across countries with similar healthcare systems but different public health interventions to limit viral transmission. The meta-analysis indicates that early suppression policies protected pregnant women from severe COVID-19 disease prior to the availability of individual protection with vaccines.