Population Attributable Risk Percent Research Articles

Association of risk factors for high blood pressure across 46 low- and middle-income countries: A multi-country cross-sectional analysis.

Despite acknowledging the influence of various lifestyle and metabolic risk factors on hypertension, it remains uncertain to identify the primary contributors and differentiate which modifiable risk factors mediate the causal effects of hypertension. We aimed to examine the hierarchical association of eight prominent lifestyle and metabolic risk factors, along with demographic variables, with hypertension in adults and to explore the mediating effects of modifiable metabolic risk factors on hypertension. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 46 low- and middle-income countries using the World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease risk factor surveillance from 2002 to 2020. In a sample of 179 535 non-pregnant adults, we assessed the weighted population-attributable risk percentages (PAR%) for hypertension associated with eight risk factors. Additionally, we investigated the mediating role of metabolic risk factors on the effects of lifestyle risk factors on hypertension. After adjusting for the sample weight in each country, 26.7% of participants had hypertension. The prevalence of hypertension was highest in those aged ≥65 years, with obesity-associated hypertension (45.7%) exceeding the rates for overweight (32.2%) and non-overweight individuals (18.2%). These eight risk factors collectively explain 83.7% of the PAR% associated with hypertension adjusted for the communal variance. Among the modifiable factors, obesity contributed to a weighted PAR% of 38.2%, while sedentary behaviour and low physical activity combined accounted for a weighted PAR% of 3.1%. Overweight/obesity played a predominant mediating role in the correlation between lifestyle risk factors and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, with the indirect effect accounting for approximately 25-64% and 13-80% of the total effect, respectively. These findings offer new insights into the modified risk factors associated with hypertension in adults in low- and middle-income countries, highlighting the crucial role of maintaining a normal body weight for the effective prevention and management of hypertension.

Abstract 2227: Physical activity at breast cancer diagnosis and incident cardiovascular disease in the Pathways Study

Abstract Background: Breast cancer survivors are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to women without a history of breast cancer. Although cardiotoxic cancer treatments influence these risks, lifestyles that are associated with both breast cancer and CVD also contribute. With the number of breast cancer survivors expected to increase, a growing need exists to identify modifiable risk factors that protect against the development of CVD after diagnosis. Physical activity at breast cancer diagnosis is associated with lower cancer recurrence and mortality risk. However, associations between physical activity at diagnosis and incident CVD have yet to be investigated in detail. Methods: The Pathways Study is a prospective cohort study of 4,504 women who were members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) when diagnosed with first primary invasive breast cancer between 2005 and 2013. At enrollment, women self-reported their frequency, duration, and intensity of physical activities during the previous six months using the Arizona Activity Frequency Questionnaire. This information was used to dichotomize the women’s physical activity levels by the CDC’s Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans (≥ 150 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per week vs less). CVD events were obtained from electronic health records as part of the Pathways Heart Study and were defined as post-diagnostic incidence of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, and stroke. Deaths were documented through several sources, including the National Death Index. Women were followed until the first of disenrollment from the KPNC health plan, death, or December 31, 2021. Competing risk Cox regression models were used to estimate associations between meeting CDC physical activity guidelines and CVD. Results: In this cohort of breast cancer survivors, women who self-reported meeting physical activity guidelines at diagnosis experienced lower rates of post-diagnostic CVD events (8.6% vs 13.1%). After adjustment for socio-demographic factors, meeting physical activity guidelines remained associated with lower risk of CVD (HR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.98); this association appeared to be driven by reduced risk of heart failure (HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.93) and cardiomyopathy (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.92). Approximately 15% of the CVD risk reduction in Pathways Study participants can be attributed to meeting physical activity guidelines (population attributable risk percent: 14.5%, 95% CI: 8%, 21%). Conclusions: Compared to women who did not meet CDC physical activity guidelines, women who reported meeting guidelines near the time of their breast cancer diagnosis had decreased risk of future CVD, including heart failure and cardiomyopathy. Future studies investigating changes in post-diagnostic physical activity patterns and CVD risk are warranted. Citation Format: Jacob K. Kresovich, Alicia R. Richards, Isaac J. Ergas, Cecile A. Laurent, Rikki Cannioto, Jamal S. Rana, Janise M. Roh, Catherine Thomsen, Salma Shariff-Marco, Eileen Rillamas-Sun, Richard K. Cheng, Song Yao, Christine B. Ambrosone, Lawrence H. Kushi, Heather Greenlee, Marilyn L. Kwan. Physical activity at breast cancer diagnosis and incident cardiovascular disease in the Pathways Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 2227.

Smoking-attributable mortality among Korean adults in 2019.

Tobacco use ranks among the leading preventable causes of death worldwide. This study was conducted to calculate the mortality rate attributable to smoking in Korea for 2019 and to highlight the importance of tracking and monitoring smoking-related deaths for public health purposes. Population attributable risk (PAR) was used to estimate the number of deaths related to smoking in 2019. PAR percentages were applied to the estimated mortality figures for various diseases, with PAR determined based on relative risk (RR). Levin's formula was used to calculate PAR, and RR was adjusted for age and alcohol consumption using Cox proportional hazards regression model to derive disease-specific regression coefficients. The analysis incorporated previously determined smoking rates from 1985, and use rates of novel tobacco products were not considered. The findings revealed a total of 67,982 smoking-attributable deaths in Korea in 2019, 56,993 of which occurred in men and 11,049 in women. The PAR of smoking for various causes of death in adult men was highest for lung cancer at 74.9%, followed by pneumonia (29.4%), ischemic heart disease (42.3%), and stroke (30.2%). For women, the PAR for smoking-related death was highest for lung cancer (19.9%), followed by stroke (7.6%), pneumonia (5.7%), and ischemic heart disease (9.1%). In countries experiencing rapid fluctuations in smoking rates, including Korea, regular studies on smoking-related mortality is imperative. Furthermore, it is necessary to investigate smoking-related deaths, including the prevalence of novel tobacco product use, to accurately gauge the risks associated with emerging tobacco products.

Healthy lifestyle scores associate with incidence of type 2 diabetes mediated by uric acid.

Whether and to what extent serum uric acid (SUA) mediates the association between combined lifestyle behaviors and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate the role of SUA in the relationship between healthy lifestyle scores (HLS) and the incidence of T2DM. This prospective study used data from Zhejiang Metabolic Syndrome cohort. A HLS (5-point scale including healthy waist circumference (WC), never smoking, high physical activity, healthy diet and moderate alcohol intake) was estimated in 13,919 participants, who had SUA at baseline examination in 2009-2014, and were followed-up to 2021-2022 to ascertain incident of T2DM. Cox proportional hazards models and mediation analysis were used to examine the associations between HLS, SUA and T2DM. We included 13,919 participants aged 18years or older without diabetes at baseline (mean age 54.6 [SD 13.9] years, 58.7% female). During a median follow-up of 9.94years, 645 cases of T2DM occurred. Compared with participants with a poor HLS, those with 4-5 low-risk lifestyle factors showed a 60% reduction in the risk of developing T2DM (adjusted HR, 0.40; 95% CI: 0.28-0.57). Further, the population-attributable risk percent (95% CI) of T2DM for poor adherence to the overall healthy lifestyle (< 4 low-risk factors) was 43.24% (30.02%, 56.46%). The HLS was inversely associated with SUA level. With per score increased in HLS, the beta (95% CI) of SUA (log transformed) was - 0.03 (- 0.03, - 0.02), and the odds ratio (95% CI) of hyperuricemia was 0.82 (0.77, 0.86). The relationship between the HLS and risk of T2DM was mediated by SUA with a 13.06% mediation effect. There was no significant combined effect of HLS and SUA on risk of T2DM (P = 0.097). The relationship between overall healthy lifestyle behaviors and T2DM was reconfirmed and the association appeared to be mediated by SUA. The mediation effect of baseline SUA was more pronounced among women who were below 60years old.

Interplay between oral health and lifestyle factors for cancer risk in rural and urban China: a population-based cohort study

BackgroundAlthough poor oral health and several lifestyle factors have been found to be associated with cancer risk, their joint relationship has rarely been studied. MethodsWe prospectively examined the associations of oral health and healthy lifestyle factors with cancer risk among 0.5 million rural and urban residents from the China Kadoorie Biobank (2004–2015). Oral health status was assessed from self-reported baseline questionnaires. A healthy lifestyle index comprising non-smoking, non-drinking, ideal body shape, physical activity and healthy diet was calculated for each participant, and categorized into favorable, intermediate and unfavorable lifestyle behavior. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relating oral health and healthy lifestyle index to cancer risk using Cox proportional hazards models. We estimated the population attributable risk percent (PAR%) and 95% CIs using multivariate models. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 9 years, 23,805 new cancer cases were documented, with 52% from rural areas and 48% from urban areas. Compared with those with good oral health and favorable lifestyle, participants with poor oral health and unfavorable lifestyle had a higher risk of developing cancer in both rural (adjusted HR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.39–1.74]; P for trend < 0.001) and urban areas (adjusted HR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.24–1.67]; P for trend < 0.001). A significant multiplicative interaction between oral health and healthy lifestyle index on cancer risk was found in rural residents (P for interaction = 0.004) rather than in urban residents (P for interaction = 0.973). Assuming poor oral health as an additional risk factor, the PAR% of total cancer increased by 3.0% and 1.1% for participants with intermediate lifestyle and unfavorable lifestyle, respectively. ConclusionsThese findings suggest a joint effect of oral health and common lifestyle factors on cancer risk. Promotion of healthy lifestyle by integration of good oral health would be beneficial to consider in cancer prevention strategies.

Acquired risk factors and incident atrial fibrillation according to age and genetic predisposition.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in adults. Investigations of risk factor profiles for AF according to age and genetic risk groups are essential to promote individualized strategies for the prevention and control of AF. A total of 409 661 participants (mean age, 56 years; 46% men) free of AF at baseline and with complete information about risk factors were included from the UK Biobank cohort. The hazard ratios and population-attributable risk (PAR) percentages of incident AF associated with 23 risk factors were examined, including 3 social factors, 7 health behaviours, 6 cardiometabolic factors, 6 clinical comorbidities, and the genetic risk score (GRS), across 3 age groups (40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years) and 3 genetic risk groups (low, moderate, and high GRS). After a follow-up of 5 027 587 person-years, 23 847 participants developed AF. Most cardiometabolic factors and clinical comorbidities showed a significant interaction with age, whereby the associations were generally strengthened in younger groups (Pinteraction < .002). However, only low LDL cholesterol, renal dysfunction, and cardiovascular disease showed a significant interaction with genetic risk, and the associations with these factors were stronger in lower genetic risk groups (Pinteraction < .002). Cardiometabolic factors consistently accounted for the largest number of incident AF cases across all age groups (PAR: 36.2%-38.9%) and genetic risk groups (34.0%-41.9%), with hypertension and overweight/obesity being the two leading modifiable factors. Health behaviours (PAR: 11.5% vs. 8.7%) and genetic risk factors (19.1% vs. 14.3%) contributed to more AF cases in the 40-49 years group than in the 60-69 years group, while the contribution of clinical comorbidities remained relatively stable across different age groups. The AF risk attributable to overall cardiometabolic factors (PAR: 41.9% in the low genetic risk group and 34.0% in the high genetic risk group) and clinical comorbidities (24.7% and 15.9%) decreased with increasing genetic risk. The impact of social factors on AF was relatively low across the groups by age and genetic risk. This study provided comprehensive information about age- and genetic predisposition-related risk factor profiles for AF in a cohort of UK adults. Prioritizing risk factors according to age and genetic risk stratifications may help to achieve precise and efficient prevention of AF.

Chronic Hypertension in Pregnancy and Racial-Ethnic Disparities in Complications.

To evaluate whether there are individual- and population-level associations between chronic hypertension and pregnancy complications, and to assess differences across seven racial-ethnic groups. This population-based study used linked vital statistics and hospitalization discharge data from all live and stillbirths in California (2008-2018), Michigan (2008-2020), Oregon (2008-2020), Pennsylvania (2008-2014), and South Carolina (2008-2020). We used multivariable log-binomial regression models to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and population attributable risk (PAR) percentages with 95% CIs for associations between chronic hypertension and several obstetric and neonatal outcomes, selected based on prior evidence and pathologic pathways. We adjusted models for demographic factors (race and ethnicity, payment method, educational attainment), age, body mass index, obstetric history, delivery year, and state, and conducted analyses stratified across seven racial-ethnic groups. The study included 7,955,713 pregnancies, of which 168,972 (2.1%) were complicated by chronic hypertension. Chronic hypertension was associated with several adverse obstetric and neonatal outcomes, with the largest adjusted PAR percentages observed for preeclampsia with severe features or eclampsia (22.4; 95% CI 22.2-22.6), acute renal failure (13.6; 95% CI 12.6-14.6), and pulmonary edema (10.7; 95% CI 8.9-12.6). Estimated RRs overall were similar across racial-ethnic groups, but PAR percentages varied. The adjusted PAR percentages (95% CI) for severe maternal morbidity-a widely used composite of acute severe events-for people who were American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Latino, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, White, and Multiracial or Other were 5.0 (1.1-8.8), 3.7 (3.0-4.3), 9.0 (8.2-9.8), 3.9 (3.6-4.3), 11.6 (6.4-16.5), 3.2 (2.9-3.5), and 5.5 (4.2-6.9), respectively. Chronic hypertension accounts for a substantial fraction of obstetric and neonatal morbidity and contributes to higher complication rates, particularly for people who are Black or Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Anemia and Severe Maternal Morbidity.

To evaluate antepartum anemia prevalence by race and ethnicity, to assess whether such differences contribute to severe maternal morbidity (SMM), and to estimate the contribution of antepartum anemia to SMM and nontransfusion SMM by race and ethnicity. We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked vital record and birth hospitalization data for singleton births at or after 20 weeks of gestation in California from 2011 through 2020. Pregnant patients with hereditary anemias, out-of-hospital births, unlinked records, and missing variables of interest were excluded. Antepartum anemia prevalence and trends were estimated by race and ethnicity. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria were used for SMM and nontransfusion SMM indicators. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) for SMM and nontransfusion SMM by race and ethnicity after sequential adjustment for social determinants, parity, obstetric comorbidities, delivery, and antepartum anemia. Population attributable risk percentages were calculated to assess the contribution of antepartum anemia to SMM and nontransfusion SMM by race and ethnicity. In total, 3,863,594 births in California were included. In 2020, Black pregnant patients had the highest incidence of antepartum anemia (21.5%), followed by Pacific Islander (18.2%), American Indian-Alaska Native (14.1%), multiracial (14.0%), Hispanic (12.6%), Asian (10.6%), and White pregnant patients (9.6%). From 2011 to 2020, the prevalence of anemia increased more than100% among Black patients, and there was a persistent gap in prevalence among Black compared with White patients. Compared with White patients, the adjusted risk for SMM was high among most racial and ethnic groups; adjustment for anemia after sequential modeling for known confounders decreased SMM risk most for Black pregnant patients (approximated RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.42-1.53 to approximated RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.22-1.37). Compared with White patients, the full adjusted nontransfusion SMM risk remained high for most groups except Hispanic and multiracial patients. Within each racial and ethnic group, the population attributable risk percentage for antepartum anemia and SMM was highest for multiracial patients (21.4%, 95% CI 17.5-25.0%), followed by Black (20.9%, 95% CI 18.1-23.4%) and Hispanic (20.9%, 95% CI 19.9-22.1%) patients. The nontransfusion SMM population attributable risk percentages for Asian, Black, and White pregnant patients were less than 8%. Antepartum anemia, most prevalent among Black pregnant patients, contributed to disparities in SMM by race and ethnicity. Nearly one in five to six SMM cases among Black, Hispanic, American Indian-Alaska Native, Pacific Islander, and multiracial pregnant patients is attributable in part to antepartum anemia.

The Ratio of Serum Uric Acid to Glycosylated Haemoglobin as a Predictor of All-Mortality in Elderly Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcers: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

To clarify the relationship between serum uric acid (UA) and glycosylated hemoglobin (UA/HbA1c) ratio and all-cause mortality in patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). A total of 172 inpatients with DFUs (PEDIS grades 2-4) were eligible for inclusion in this study from 2018 to 2023. This was a retrospective, longitudinal cohort study. All subjects were followed up every 6 months for a median of 60 months. According to the cutoff value of the UA/HbA1c ratio of 39.07 obtained from ROC analysis, the participants were divided into two groups: low-level (≤ 39.07, n = 107) and high-level (> 39.07, n = 65) groups. The correlation between UA/HbA1c ratio and all-cause mortality was also evaluated by Cox regression analysis TheKaplan-Meier survival curve analysis and Log rank tests were used to assess the incidence rates of all-cause mortality. The contribution rate of risk factors was estimated by the population-attributable risk percentage (PAR%) analysis. ROC analysis showed that the optimal cutoff values for UA and the UA/HbA1c ratio were 372 μmol/L and 39.07, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that a high UA/HbA1c ratio (HR =4.63; 95% CI = 2.004-10.7, P < 0.001) was independently associated with a high risk of all-cause mortality in patients with DFUs. Stratified analysis indicated that subjects aged ≥ 60 years had a greater risk of all-cause mortality associated with a high UA/HbA1c ratio (HR = 4.450; 95% CI = 1.711-11.574, P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that all-cause mortality had a significant positive association with a high UA/HbA1c ratio (log-rank, P < 0.001) and a significant negative correlation with the lowered HbA1c level (< 6.5%) after a follow-up of 32 months (log-rank, P < 0.001). The population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) analysis suggested that the contribution rate of the high-level UA/HbA1c ratio to all-cause mortality was 33.7%, which was much greater than the 19.69% of UA. In brief, our study showed that for every 1.0% increase in the UA/HbA1c ratio, the all-cause mortality rate in elderly patients with DFUs aged ≥ 60 years increased by 3.45-fold. For elderly patients with DFUs, a safe and effective strategy to reduce all-cause mortality is to strictly control serum UA levels to < 372 μmol/L and appropriately loosen the control goal of HbA1c to ≥ 6.5%.

The EAT-Lancet Commission's Planetary Health Diet Compared With the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease Ecological Data Analysis.

Background This article aimed to compare the EAT-Lancet Commission's "Planetary Health Diet" (PHD) with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2017 (GBD2017) dietary and other risk factor data. In the PHD/GBD comparison, we also intended to show the relevance of a new multiple regression analysis methodology with dietary and non-dietary risk factors (independent variables) for noncommunicable disease (NCD) deaths/100000/year in males and females 15-69 years old from 1990 to 2017 (NCDs, dependent variable). Methods We formatted worldwide GBD2017 dietary risk factors and NCDdata on 1120 worldwide cohorts to obtain 7846 population-weighted cohorts. Each cohort represented about one million people, totaling about 7.8 billion people from 195 countries. With an empirically derived methodology, we compared the PHD animal- and plant-sourced food recommended ranges (kilocalories/day=KC/d) with optimal dietary ranges (KC/d) from GBD cohort data. Using GBD data subsets with low and high animal food consumption cohorts, our new GBD multiple regression formula derivation methodology equated risk factor formula coefficients to their population-attributable risk percents (PAR%s). Results We contrasted PHD recommendations for the available 14 dietary risk factors (KC/dmeans and ranges) with our GBD analysis methodology's optimal ranges for each dietary variable (KC/dmean and range): PHD beef, lamb, and pork mean: 30 KC/d(range: 0-60 KC/d)/GBD processed meat: 8.86 (1.69-16.03)+GBD red meat: 44.52 (20.37-68.68), PHD fish: 40 (0-143)/GBD: 19.68 (3.45-35.90), PHD whole milk or equivalents: 153 (0-306)/GBD: 40.00 (18.89-61.11), PHD poultry: 62 (0-124)/GBD: 56.10 (24.13-88.07), PHD eggs: 19 (0-37)/GBD: 19.42 (9.99-28.86), PHD: saturated oils 96 (0-96)/GBD added saturated fatty acids (SFA): 116.55 (104.04-129.07), PHD all added sugars: 120 (0-120)/GBD sugary beverages: 286.37 (256.99-315.76), PHD tubers or starchy vegetables: 39 (0-78)/GBD potatoes: 84.16 (75.75-92.58)+GBD sweet potatoes: 9.21 (4.05-14.37), PHD fruits: 126 (63-189)/GBD: 63.03 (21.61-113.71), PHD vegetables: 78.32 (9.48-196.14)/GBD: 85.05 (66.75-103.36), PHD nuts: 291 (0-437)/GBD nuts and seeds: 10.97 (5.95-15.98), PHD whole grains: 811 (811/811)/GBD: 56.14 (50.53-61.76), PHD legumes: 284 (0-379)/GBD: 59.93 (45.43-74.43), and total animal foodPHD: (0/400)/GBD: 329.84 (212.49-447.19). Multiple regression low and high animal foodsubsets' (animal foods mean=147.09 KC/d versus animal foods mean=482.00 KC/d) formulas each with 28dietary and non-dietary risk factors (independent variables) accounted for 52.53% and 28.83% of their respective total formula PAR%s with NCDs (dependent variable). Conclusions GBD data modeling supported many but not all the PHD dietary recommendations. GBD data suggested that the amount of consumption of animal foods was the dominant determinate of NCDs of countries globally. Adding to the univariate associations, multiple regression risk factor formulas with risk factor coefficients equated to their PAR%s further elucidated dietary influences on NCDs. This paper and the soon-to-be-released IHME GBD2021 (1990-2021) data should help inform the EAT-Lancet 2.0 Commission's work.

Geospatial variations in socioeconomic conditions and health outcomes in COVID-19 era: insights from South Africa (2020–2022)

South Africa also has the highest burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related comorbidities in Africa. We aimed to quantify the temporal and geospatial changes in unemployment, food insecurity, and their combined impact on depressive symptoms among South Africans who participated into several rounds of national surveys. We estimated the population-attributable risk percent (PAR%) for the combinations of the risk factors after accounting for their correlation structure in multifactorial setting. Our study provided compelling evidence for immediate and severe effect of the pandemic where 60% of South Africans reported household food insecurity or household hunger, shortly after the pandemic emerged in 2020. Despite the grants provided by the government, these factors were also identified as the most influential risk factors (adjusted odds ratios (aORs) ranged from 2.06 to 3.10, p < 0.001) for depressive symptoms and collectively associated with 62% and 53% of the mental health symptoms in men and women, respectively. Similar pattern was observed among pregnant women and 41% of the depressive symptoms were exclusively associated with those who reported household hunger. However, aORs associated with the concerns around pandemic and vaccine were mostly not significant and ranged from 1.12 to 1.26 which resulted substantially lower impacts on depressive symptoms (PAR%:7%-and-14%). Our findings suggest that South Africa still has unacceptably high rates of hunger which is accelerated during the pandemic. These results may have significant clinical and epidemiological implications and may also bring partial explanation for the low vaccine coverage in the country, as priorities and concerns are skewed towards economic concerns and food insecurity.

Risk factors combine in a complex manner in assessment for macrosomia

BackgroundMacrosomia is a serious public health concern. This study aimed to examine the combined effects of various risk factors on macrosomia.MethodsThe China Labor and Delivery Survey was a multicenter cross-sectional study that included 96 hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the combined effects of the risk factors for macrosomia. The population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) was calculated for the risk factors.ResultsA total of 64,735 live births, including 3,739 neonates with macrosomia, were used for the analysis. The weighted prevalence of macrosomia was 5.8%. Pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity, diabetes, and gestational hypertension have a synergistic effect on increasing the rate of macrosomia in mothers aged < 36 years. The highest odds ratio (36.15, 95% CI: 34.38–38.02) was observed in female fetuses whose mothers had both gestational hypertension and diabetes. However, in mothers aged ≥ 36 years, the synergistic effect of gestational hypertension and other factors did not exist, and the risk for macrosomia was reduced by 70% in female fetuses of mothers with both gestational hypertension and overweight/obesity. Pre-pregnancy risk factors (pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and advanced maternal age) contributed the most to macrosomia (23.36% of the PAR%), and the single largest risk factor was pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity (17.43% of the PAR%).ConclusionMacrosomia was related to several common, modifiable risk factors. Some factors have combined effects on macrosomia (e.g., pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and diabetes), whereas gestational hypertension varies by maternal age. Strategies based on pre-pregnancy risk factors should be given more attention to reduce the burden of macrosomia.

Adherence to Healthy Lifestyle Prior to Infection and Risk of Post–COVID-19 Condition

Few modifiable risk factors for post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) have been identified. To investigate the association between healthy lifestyle factors prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk of PCC. In this prospective cohort study, 32 249 women in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort reported preinfection lifestyle habits in 2015 and 2017. Healthy lifestyle factors included healthy body mass index (BMI, 18.5-24.9; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), never smoking, at least 150 minutes per week of moderate to vigorous physical activity, moderate alcohol intake (5 to 15 g/d), high diet quality (upper 40% of Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 score), and adequate sleep (7 to 9 h/d). SARS-CoV-2 infection (confirmed by test) and PCC (at least 4 weeks of symptoms) were self-reported on 7 periodic surveys administered from April 2020 to November 2021. Among participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the relative risk (RR) of PCC in association with the number of healthy lifestyle factors (0 to 6) was estimated using Poisson regression and adjusting for demographic factors and comorbidities. A total of 1981 women with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test over 19 months of follow-up were documented. Among those participants, mean age was 64.7 years (SD, 4.6; range, 55-75); 97.4% (n = 1929) were White; and 42.8% (n = 848) were active health care workers. Among these, 871 (44.0%) developed PCC. Healthy lifestyle was associated with lower risk of PCC in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with women without any healthy lifestyle factors, those with 5 to 6 had 49% lower risk (RR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33-0.78) of PCC. In a model mutually adjusted for all lifestyle factors, BMI and sleep were independently associated with risk of PCC (BMI, 18.5-24.9 vs others, RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-1.00, P = .046; sleep, 7-9 h/d vs others, RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.95, P = .008). If these associations were causal, 36.0% of PCC cases would have been prevented if all participants had 5 to 6 healthy lifestyle factors (population attributable risk percentage, 36.0%; 95% CI, 14.1%-52.7%). Results were comparable when PCC was defined as symptoms of at least 2-month duration or having ongoing symptoms at the time of PCC assessment. In this prospective cohort study, pre-infection healthy lifestyle was associated with a substantially lower risk of PCC. Future research should investigate whether lifestyle interventions may reduce risk of developing PCC or mitigate symptoms among individuals with PCC or possibly other postinfection syndromes.

Association between baseline meniscal extrusion and long-term incident knee osteoarthritis in two different cohorts

ObjectivePreviously, we identified a significant association between meniscal extrusion and short-term incident knee osteoarthritis (KOA). To validate these findings, we evaluated long-term incident KOA in knees with meniscus extrusion, using two different cohorts. MethodsWe used data from the PROOF study, which evaluated a high-risk population of overweight women, and a female subcohort of the population-based Rotterdam Study (RS). Meniscal extrusion was defined as ≥ 3 mm on MRI. Outcomes were incident radiographic (KL ≥ 2) or clinical KOA according to the ACR criteria, assessed at 6.6 years (PROOF) and 5.1 years (RS). With generalized estimating equations, we determined the association of knees with and without baseline meniscal extrusion and incident KOA, adjusting for confounders. Furthermore, we computed the population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) of meniscal extrusion. ResultsPROOF: of 421 available knees 23% had baseline meniscal extrusion. Incident radiographic KOA was significantly higher in knees with meniscal extrusion compared to those without (adjusted OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.34, 4.80; p = 0.004; PAR 21%). Incident clinical KOA was also significantly higher (adjusted OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.29, 4.60; p = 0.006; PAR 19%).RS: 46% of 872 available knees had meniscal extrusion. Incident radiographic KOA was significantly higher (adjusted OR 9.86, 95% CI 2.13, 45.67; p = 0.002; PAR 77%). Incident clinical KOA was borderline significantly higher (adjusted OR 2.65, 95% CI 0.96, 7.30; p = 0.06; PAR 44%). ConclusionMeniscal extrusion is significantly associated with long-term incident KOA. A high number of incident cases were attributable to extrusion.

Population-level impact of beliefs and attitudes on vaccine decision-making in South Africa: results from the COVID-19 Vaccine Survey (2021/2022)

ObjectivesIn addition to being home to more than seven million HIV-infected individuals, South Africa also has a high burden of COVID-19 and related comorbidities worldwide. We aimed to identify the most influential “beliefs” and “attitudes” on vaccine decision-making behavior. Study designThis study used panel data from cross-sectional surveys. MethodsWe used the data from Black South Africans who participated in the “COVID-19 Vaccine Surveys” (November 2021 and February/March 2022) in South Africa. Besides standard risk factor analysis, such as multivariable logistic regression models, we also used the modified version of population attributable risk percent and estimated the population-level impacts of beliefs and attitudes on vaccine decision-making behavior using the methodology in multifactorial setting. ResultsA total of 1399 people (57% men and 43% women) who participated in both surveys were analyzed. Of these, 336 (24%) reported being vaccinated in survey 2. Overall low perceived risk, concerns around efficacy, and safety were identified as the most influential factors and associated with 52%–72% (<40 years) and 34%–55% (40+ years) of the unvaccinated individuals. ConclusionOur findings highlighted the most influential beliefs and attitudes on vaccine decision-making and their population-level impacts, which are likely to have significant public health implications exclusively for this population.

Reducing Birth Defects by Decreasing the Prevalence of Maternal Chronic Diseases-Evaluated by Linked National Registration Dataset.

Birth defects (BDs) are an important cause of abortion, stillbirth, and infant mortality that may cause lifelong disability. The defects can be caused by genetics, environmental exposure, or maternal chronic diseases. We conducted a study to analyze the association between maternal chronic diseases and BDs and to evaluate the effect of decreasing the prevalence of maternal chronic diseases on reducing BDs. The data of newborns and their mothers were concatenated and analyzed from three national population databases: the National Health Insurance Research Database, the Birth Certificate Application, and the Birth Registration Database in Taiwan during the period of 2005 to 2014. Codes 740-759 of the International Classification of Diseases 9th Revision-Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) were used as the diagnosis of BDs. The prevalence of BDs was 2.72%. Mothers with cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, anemia, genitourinary tract infections, renal diseases, neurotic or psychotic disorders, gestational diabetes mellitus (DM), and pregestational type 1 or type 2 DM had a significantly higher prevalence of BDs. The population attributable risk percent (PAR%) of BDs was 1.63%, 0.55%, 0.18%, 1.06%, 0.45%, 0.22%, 0.48%, and 0.24% for maternal hypertension, cardiovascular disease, renal disease, genitourinary infection, anemia, neurotic and psychotic disorders, gestational DM, and pregestational type 1 or type 2 DM, respectively. The percentage change (-1%, -5%, and -10% of prevalence in 2034 compared with the prevalence in 2005-2014) of maternal disease and the predicted number of live births was used to estimate the decrease in the number of newly diagnosed BDs in 2034. By using the middle-estimated number of live births in 2034, we predicted that the number of BDs would decrease by 302, 102, 33, 196, 83, 41, 89, and 44 with a -5% prevalence of maternal hypertension, cardiovascular disease, renal disease, genitourinary infection, anemia, neurotic and psychotic disorders, gestational DM, and pregestational type 1 or type 2 DM, respectively. We conclude that mothers with chronic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, anemia, genitourinary tract infections, renal diseases, neurotic or psychotic disorders, gestational DM, and pregestational type 1 or type 2 DM, have a significantly higher (p &lt; 0.01) prevalence of having offspring with BDs. Mothers with chronic diseases are associated with BDs. It is very important to set up a policy to decrease the prevalence of these maternal chronic diseases; then, we can reduce the incidence of BDs.

The First-Year Mortality Rates of Singleton Infants Born at Term of US-Born and Foreign-Born Women: The Effect of Paternal Acknowledgment

To determine the whether a greater percentage of deaths of infants born at term among US-born (vs foreign-born) women is attributable to paternal nonacknowledgement. Using a cross-sectional population-based design, stratified and multivariable binomial regression analyses were performed on a subset of the 2017 National Center for Health Statistics linked live birth-infant death cohort dataset of singleton infants born at term (37-42weeks) of US-born (N=2 127 243) and foreign-born (N=334 664) women. Infants of US-born women had a prevalence of paternal nonacknowledgement of 11.3% vs 7.5% for foreign-born women, P<.001. The infant mortality rate of term births to US-born women with paternal nonacknowledgment equaled 5.0/1000 vs 2.0/1000 for those with paternal acknowledgment; relative risk (RR)=2.47 (2.31, 2.86). The infant mortality rate of term births to foreign-born women with paternal nonacknowledgment equaled 2.5/1000 vs 1.6/1000 for those with paternal acknowledgment, RR=1.61 (1.24, 2.10). The adjusted (controlling for selected covariates) RR of first-year mortality of term births among US-born and foreign-born women with nonacknowledged (vs acknowledged) fathers equaled 1.43 (1.33, 1.54) and 1.38 (1.04, 1.84), respectively. The population-attributable risk percent of deaths in infants born at term for paternal nonacknowledgement among US-born and foreign-born women equaled 4.9% (246 deaths) and 2.8% (15 deaths), respectively. Paternal nonacknowledgement is associated with a 40% greater infant mortality rate among term births to US-born and foreign-born women; however, a greater proportion of first-year deaths among term births to US-born (vs foreign-born) women is attributable to paternal nonacknowledgment. These findings highlight the importance of a father's involvement in the outcomes of infants born at term.

Clinical characteristics of Plasmodium falciparum infection among symptomatic patients presenting to a major urban military hospital in Cameroon

BackgroundUrban malaria has received insufficient attention in the literature. The prevalence and clinical characteristics of Plasmodium falciparum infection amongst patients presenting with suspected malaria were investigated at a major urban hospital in Douala, Cameroon with a particular focus on anaemia.MethodsA cross-sectional, 18-week demographic and clinical survey was conducted of patients presenting to the Emergency Department of Douala Military Hospital with suspected malaria, largely defined by the presence or recent history of fever. Venous samples were tested for P. falciparum using rapid diagnostic tests and PCR, and anaemia was defined by haemoglobin level according to WHO definitions. Likelihood ratios (LR), odds ratios (OR), and population attributable risk percent (PARP) were calculated.ResultsParticipants were ages 8 months to 86 years, 51% were women (257/503), and all districts of Douala were represented. Overall, 38.0% (n = 189/497) were anaemic, including 5.2% (n = 26/497) with severe anaemia. Anaemia prevalence was significantly higher (OR: 2.20, 95% CI 1.41–3.45) among children < 15 years (53.1%, n = 52/98) compared to adults (34%, n = 133/392). Plasmodium falciparum was detected in 37.2% by nested PCR. Among all participants, several factors were associated with clinically significant LR for P. falciparum infection, including age 10–14 years (positive LR: 3.73), living in the island district of Douala VI (positive LR: 3.41), travel to any of three northern regions (positive LR: 5.11), and high fever > 40 °C at presentation (positive LR: 4.83). Among all participants, 8.7% of anaemia was associated with P. falciparum infection, while the PARP was 33.2% among those < 15 years of age and 81.0% among 10–14-year-olds.ConclusionsThe prevalence of P. falciparum infection in the urban hospital was high. Mirroring trends in many rural African settings, older children had the highest positivity rate for P. falciparum infection. Anaemia was also common in all age groups, and for those 10–14 years of age, 80% of the risk for anaemia was associated with P. falciparum infection. Malaria rates in major urban population centres can be high, and more research into the multifactorial causes of anaemia across the age spectrum are needed.

Reevaluation of Gastric Cancer Screening by Levin's Equation.

This study aimed to reevaluate the effectiveness of fluoroscopy and endoscopy in reducing gastric cancer mortality at the population level. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates of gastric cancer and the introduction rates of gastric cancer screening were extracted from the Cancer Registry and Statistics database. The population-attributable risk (PAR) percent of no screening for gastric cancer mortality was calculated using Levin's equation. The PAR of each mortality rate in the no-screening group was estimated as follows: mortality × PAR%. The Jonckheere-Terpstra test for trends and linear regression were performed to compare the PAR of gastric cancer mortality rates among the decades. The PAR of crude and age-adjusted mortality rates in the no-screening group significantly decreased in the total population ( P for trend &lt;0.001), as well as individually in the male ( P for trend &lt;0.001) and female ( P for trend &lt;0.001) populations. The PAR of the crude mortality rate in the female population significantly decreased in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019, compared with that in 1980-1989. There was no significant difference in the PAR of crude mortality rate in the male population among the decades. The PAR of the age-adjusted mortality rate significantly decreased in 2000-2009 and 2010-2019, compared with that in 1980-1989, in the male and female populations. PAR% and PAR of no screening for gastric cancer mortality could be estimated using Levin's equation, and the effectiveness of the present gastric cancer screenings with fluoroscopy and endoscopy has been decreasing, especially in the female population.

Acanthamoeba Keratitis Risk Factors for Daily Wear Contact Lens Users: A Case–Control Study

This study was designed to establish risk factors for the development of Acanthamoeba keratitis (AK) for daily disposable (DD) contact lens (CL) users compared with daily wear (DW) reusable lens users and for risks unique to DD users. This is important because, in many major economies, CL use is the principal cause of microbial keratitis, of which AK accounts for approximately 50% of cases with sight loss. Determining these AK risks informs practitioner advice and consumer behavior. Case-control study. Cases and controls were recruited from an Accident and Emergency Department serving South-East England. Cases were new CL users with AK recruited retrospectively from January 2011 to February 2013 and prospectively thereafter until August 2014. Controls were recruited prospectively from February 2014 to June2015. Analysis of a self-administered questionnaire. Independent risk factors and population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for AK. A total of 83 AK cases and 122 controls were recruited; DD use was reported by 20 (24%) cases and 66 (54%) controls. In multivariable analyses adjusted for potential confounders, the odds of AK was higher for DW reusable soft lenses (odds ratio [OR], 3.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-8.43) and rigid lenses (OR, 4.56; 95% CI, 1.03-20.19) than for DD lenses. Within the DD-using subset, AK was associated with the following modifiable risk factors: less frequent professional follow-up visits (OR, 10.12; 95% CI, 5.01-20.46); showering in lenses (OR, 3.29, 95% CI, 1.17-9.23); lens reuse (OR, 5.41; 95% CI, 1.55-18.89); and overnight wear (OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 1.15-13.46). The PAR% estimated that 30% to 62% of cases could be prevented by switching from reusable soft lens to DD lens use. Acanthamoeba keratitis risks are increased > threefold in DW reusable lens users versus DD lens use. Acanthamoeba keratitis risks for DD lens users can be minimized by adherence to safe use guidelines (no reuse, overnight wear, or contamination by water). Safe CL use can be improved by increasing the prominence of risk avoidance information from manufacturers and regulators. Because AK accounts for half of severe keratitis in CL users, these measures can be expected to have public health benefits.