Pooled Mean Group Estimator Research Articles

The Impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth in ASEAN

To study the impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth in ASEAN. This study uses panel data from 1993 to 2022 from ASEAN countries by collecting data from the World Development Indicator, World Bank 2023, consisting of GDP per capita, working age population, Youth dependency population, and Elderly dependency population. We utilize the statistical completion program as a tool to help with the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (ARDL) method analysis. The results of the study found that variables are stationary at I(0) and I(1) level. Moreover, the estimated coefficients of the variables with the Pooled Mean Group reveals that Working age population had a positive impact in long-run on the GDP per capita in ASEAN countries, Youth dependency population had a negative impact in long-run on the GDP per capita in ASEAN countries, and also had a speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium and for Elderly dependency population were not statistically significant. The result of Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effect further shows that there were not statistically significant. By means of the Hausman test, the results can be concluded that Pooled Mean Group estimation is most suitable.

How wealthy in natural resource leads environmental sustainability in developing economies? An empirical investigation

This study investigates the impact of income generated from natural resources on environmental sustainability and analyses the moderating role of institutional quality in carbon emissions function. An extensive dataset from 61 developing nations covering the years 2000–2018 has been taken, which uses a dynamic heterogeneous panel data model. Our study follows a rigorous methodology by applying the pooled mean group estimator. An extensive examination of the impacts over the short run and long run is possible using this method. This study reveals multifaceted findings: in the short run, the effect of institutional quality and natural resources revenues on carbon emissions is insignificant, implying that such factors have a relatively minor impact. The long-term examination reveals that income derived from natural resources causes a spike in carbon emissions, which causes environmental deterioration and climate change. Strong institutional quality can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of correlation between revenues from natural resources and carbon emissions, which have been observed. The study's moderating effect of natural resources richness, which gradually reduces institutional quality's ability to reduce carbon emissions, is a crucial finding. Our study significantly advances the field of environmental economics, especially when discussing sustainable development in emerging nations with abundant natural resources. It emphasizes the delicate balance that must be struck between preserving efficient environmental governance and maximizing the richness of natural resources. Our findings underscore the crucial need for developing nations to strengthen their institutional frameworks and capacities and have substantial policy implications. These steps are essential to ensuring that the use of natural resources is in line with environmental sustainability objectives, turning resource curses into blessings for long-term development and environmental preservation. This research opens the door to sector-specific impacts and personalized policy interventions in resource-rich developing economies.

Human capital development and industrial sector growth in Sub Saharan African countries. An augmented pooled mean group estimator

Human capital development and industrial sector growth in Sub Saharan African countries. An augmented pooled mean group estimator

The inflationary effect of the budget deficit: does financial sector development matter?

This study aims to examine the budget deficit–inflation relationship, considering financial sector development and broad money supply as moderating and mediating variables. For this purpose, a panel data set ranging from polled mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effect estimation techniques are employed. Hence, the pooled mean group estimation result reveals that the budget deficit is inflationary. In addition, GDP per capita, the effective exchange rate, financial sector development, regulatory quality, and the interaction term of the budget deficit and financial sector development are significant determinants of inflation. The study further examines the role of the broad money supply as a mediating variable in the budget deficit–inflation relationship. The structural equation model results and the mediation effect tests confirmed a partial mediation effect of the broad money supply on the budget deficit–inflation relationship. Based on the findings, it is recommended to strengthen regulatory quality, reduce broad money supply, and improve financial sector development. By doing so, we can create a more stable and efficient economy that benefits everyone in the long run.

Are Natural Resources Harmful to the Ecology? Fresh Insights from Middle East and North African Resource-Abundant Countries

The Middle East and North African (MENA) region is among the regions most impacted by global warming and climate change. At the same time, the region accounts for 58% of global oil reserves and 43% of global natural gas reserves. It is, therefore, important to assess the role of natural resource abundance in the environmental degradation faced by MENA resource-abundant countries. This study contributes to this research area by exploring the short- and long-term repercussions of natural resources on the ecological footprint (EFP) of eight resource-rich MENA countries between 2000 and 2021. The research performs both aggregate and disaggregate assessments by considering the total resource rents, as well as specific rents of oil, natural gas, and minerals. The pooled mean group estimator indicates that a rise of 1% in total natural resources induces an increase of 0.053% in the EFP, implying that natural resources are harmful to the environment. The disaggregate analysis shows that oil rents have the most adverse environmental effects in the long run, followed by natural gas. Finally, mineral rents are determined to be neutral vis-à-vis the environment. In light of these findings, policy recommendations for reducing the adverse environmental impacts of natural resources are suggested.

Assessing long run asymmetric effect of urbanization, fossil energy consumption and regulatory quality on environmental degradation in the Black Sea Region: A dynamic analysis

Sustainable development policies of the Black Sea Region is vital to European Union given increasing environmental disturbances by dynamic and heterogenous factors across the enclave beginning from 1990s. This study assesses long run asymmetric effect of urbanization, energy consumption and regulatory quality on environmental degradation, with data from 1998Q1 to 2017Q4. First pooled mean group (PMG) estimates suggest short-run nonlinear and asymmetric effects of the independent variables on carbons emissions. Second, (i) long-run PMG estimates indicate improvements in regulatory quality reduces carbon dioxide emissions; (ii) increases in both urbanization and fossil energy consumption lead to corresponding rise in carbon dioxide emissions. Third, outcomes of Dumitrescu Hurlin causality estimates indicate (i) both fossil energy consumption and urbanization have unidirectional causal effects on carbon dioxide emissions; and (ii) increases in both urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions cause changes in regulations quality. These findings provide environmental regulatory insights for the Black Sea regions, especially to the European Union. Towards the future, the EU could ensure increased funding, research and policy inter-linking. Cooperation and formal exchanges among the economies in implementation of Danube River and Black Sea Conventions could be strengthened to preserve commercial marine resources; biodiversity and Habitat resources and reduce eutrophication. Additionally, fossil energy-guzzling industries could be regulated by the EU to use efficient technologies toward saving energy. To address urban-driven carbons emission across the region, economies across the region could invest in natural gas; while heavy investments are made in energy productivity.

Impact of economic growth and financial development on renewable energy use in selected oil-exporting countries

The aim of this study is to explore the influence of economic growth and financial development on renewable energy consumption. For the purpose of analysis, this investigation uses annual data on renewable energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, consumer price index, domestic investment, and foreign direct investment for 13 major oil-exporting countries, including Algeria, Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Republic of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Malaysia, Sudan, and Russia, during the period 1990-2020. The study employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to conduct the empirical analysis. The Hausman test determines the PMG estimator as the most suitable among the Mean Group (MG), Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE), and PMG estimators. This research shows that economic growth and financial development have a positive and significant long-term impact on renewable energy consumption. This suggests that as the economy grows and financial systems develop, there is a potential for an increase in the use of renewable energy. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test and the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method support these findings. From a policy standpoint, promoting economic growth and financial development could lead to greater use of renewable energy and contribute to sustainable development in oil-exporting countries.

Uncovering the dynamic relationship between oil prices and external trade in OECD countries

This study investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on trade, including the exports and imports of goods and services, fuel exports and fuel imports. For this purpose, we employed a Pooled Mean Group estimator on the autoregressive distributed lag (PMG–ARDL) model. This approach helps investigate the short-run and long-run effects of oil price changes on trade indicators considering the difference of convergence path across countries while handling problems of endogeneity. This study examines a strongly balanced panel dataset of 34 OECD countries over the 26 years from 1995 to 2020. Overall, the findings indicate that rising oil prices have a positive and significant impact on all trade indicators. The results are consistent with the immediate and persistent influence of oil price fluctuations on trade. Nevertheless, the effects of other explanatory variables on trade vary across different trade indicators and in the short and long runs. From a policy perspective, it is vital to comprehend the appropriate policy responses to oil price changes to achieve the expected trade outcomes.

Revisiting openness-growth nexus: Panel data estimates for selected developing Asian countries

Trade openness is viewed as a way for Asian countries to progress economically and socially. Therefore, determining how trade affects economic growth is crucial for society, particularly for emerging economies. This paper provides empirical evidence on the issue of how openness to trade affects economic growth. A sample of 22 selected Asian countries has been taken as a balanced panel. To carry out the analysis, Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) on annual data from 1990 to 2020 is used. To select between Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) estimators of ARDL, the Hausman test is used. PMG turns out as a better estimator. PMG estimation confirms that trade openness and economic growth exhibit a positive and statistically significant relation in the long run, however, short-run results lack significance. The study concluded with the recommendation that policymakers should adopt and implement an optimal trade policy. The optimal trade policy suggests the sample countries be more open to trade because it may result in higher long-run economic growth.

The effectiveness of environmental protection policies on greenhouse gas emissions

In Canada, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to remain high despite the federal government's commitment to reduce GHG emissions. Environmental policy across Canadian provinces has largely lacked consistency with some provinces implementing targeted policy such as carbon taxes while others have strongly resisted the federal government's attempts to encourage such policy. This study examines the impact of environmental policy on GHG gas emissions across Canadian provinces with policy uniquely measured by public and business sector spending on environmental protection as well as notable province-specific policies. An extended STIRPAT model is specified with the inclusion of proxies for environmental policy using panel data from Canada's ten provinces from 1995 to 2019. The cointegration and the error correction modelling approaches are employed to estimate the non-stationary panel data. A pooled mean group estimation is applied to provide short run and long run coefficients. The findings indicate that although per capita GDP is the main driver of GHG emissions in Canada, environmental policy has a significant mitigating effect, as shown by the negative association between emissions and private and public sector spending on environmental protection in the long run. Furthermore, provinces with targeted policies, such as Ontario's coal phase-out and British Columbia's carbon tax, experienced significant emissions reductions. The theoretical implication is the successful addition of policy variables to the STIRPAT model, providing the model a new application for future research.

A transition to sustainable marine living resources: Why does digital transformation matter?

This paper empirically examines how digital transformation in both the public and private sectors impacts the performance of marine living resources to demonstrate its importance for promoting a sustainable blue economy. Our approach captures the sustainable performance of countries within the European blue economy using three different measures: value added at the factor cost of capture fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, and marine aquaculture. In the context of digitalization, four different aspects are measured, namely online selling, e-commerce sales, e-commerce turnover, e-commerce, and customer relationship management, while digital public services are measured based on digital literacies, business mobility, and key enablers. By using various empirical techniques, namely a panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) model, FGLS models, and a pooled mean group estimation (PMG) in an autoregressive distributed lag estimation method (ARDL), we provide many remarkable findings. During the 2011–2019 period, we estimate that digitalization will have a significant impact on improving the sustainability of the blue economy in Europe. Nevertheless, long-term effects are more likely to be noticeable. Further, in the shape of a U curve, we also find that digitalization has nonlinear effects on marine living resources in the private and public sectors. In this study, results indicate that digitalization affects marine living resources only to a certain extent once they have reached a certain maturity level. Our findings suggest that European countries should accelerate the digital economy, strengthen the establishment of digital infrastructure, and promote digital implementation on the path toward sustainable marine living resources.

Relationship between Energy and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Panel Nonlinear ARDL Model

In this article, we study the heterogeneous relationship among energy consumption and economic growth by incorporation gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment, international trade and finance development as control variables in a selected sample of 11 countries of the Middle East and North Africa over the period 1980-2020 using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Empirical results show the presence of an asymmetric long run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the group of countries. The Pooled Mean Group estimates indicate that positive and negative changes in energy consumption have positive and significant effects on output growth in the long term, whereas both Mean Group and Difference Fixed Effect estimates report that only negative changes in energy consumption have positive and significant effect on long-term economic growth in the selected sample of countries. In addition, the short run individual effects of energy use on economic growth are positive and significant for only three countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia). These results are very important for the design of energy policies and sustainable economic growth. Energy-saving policies are suitable for long-run economic growth for the entire sample, while they are only suitable for eight countries out of eleven in the short-run.

Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Flows in East Asia

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows among East Asian countries spanning 1990–2021, using pooled mean group estimator, within the framework of panel data analysis. Findings indicate that world income, trade openness, and the real effective exchange rate strongly affect trade balance, and that the real depreciation of exchange rate exerts strong positive benefits on trade flows in the long run. The study also infers that trade openness and real effective exchange rate had strong influence on exports and imports for Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea in the short run. However, the depreciation of their currencies discouraged imports in the long run. More so, world income strongly affects the exports and imports of Hong Kong and Japan, while trade openness is advantageous for all the countries. The study recommends the continuation of the prevailing trade-growth pattern, and the existing bilateral pegged exchange rate policy with their trading partners.

Statistical omissions as the stabilizing factor of net foreign assets in EU countries

In this paper, we investigate the effect of balance of payments statistical leakages (Net errors and omissions) on the external solvency of net foreign asset positions in the EU28 sample over the period 1995–2019. The Bohn (2007) error-correction reaction function approach adapted to a dynamic panel framework (pooled mean group estimator) yields evidence of a substantial improvement in the sustainability of external positions in one out of four analyzed countries (compared to only one to three countries reporting deterioration), once the extent of hypothesized trade and non-interest income misreporting is accounted for. These findings may reflect the presence of a possible association between statistical omissions and current account transactions linked to remittances flows or tax optimization behavior, as the statistical leakages are sensitive to changes in corporate tax rates and international migrant stock.

Assessing the Role of Sustainability Disclosure on Firms’ Financial Performance: Evidence from the Energy Sector of Belt and Road Initiative Countries

This study examines the influence of sustainability disclosure on a firm’s financial performance in the energy sector, taking into account the role of ownership concentration as a moderating factor. This study utilized secondary data from 239 energy companies from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nations from 2009 to 2022. This study employed the Common Correlated Effect Mean Group and the Pooled Mean Group estimators for the analysis. To determine which component of sustainability disclosure influences a firm’s financial performance, this study divided the measurement of sustainability into three themes: environment, social, and governance. The findings revealed a positive relationship between environmental disclosure and financial performance. Similarly, we found a positive relationship between social disclosure and financial performance. However, governance disclosure does not contribute to financial performance. Furthermore, we found that ownership concentration positively moderates the association between environmental disclosure and financial performance, as well as social disclosure and financial performance. The results suggest that energy firms in developing countries should prioritize disclosing their environmental and social policies to ensure long-term financial performance.

Does national intellectual capital matter for economic growth in the Asia–Pacific economies?

PurposeCountries worldwide aim to improve their comparative advantages by efficiently using scarce resources for economic growth and development. While many studies have been conducted to measure intellectual capital at the firm's level, measuring it at the national level has been under-examined. In addition, while the important role of national intellectual capital in economic growth has been theoretically recognized in literature, this important link has largely been ignored in empirical analyses.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the newly developed index of national intellectual capital from Vo and Tran's (2022) study to examine its effects on national economic growth in the long run. The dynamic common correlated effects technique and the pooled mean group estimation are used on the sample of 23 economies in the Asia–Pacific region from 2000 to 2020.FindingsFindings from this study confirm the positive and significant contribution of the national intellectual capital to economic growth in the region. The authors also find that, as a feedback effect, economic growth will also enhance and improve the accumulation of national intellectual capital.Practical implicationsThe findings of this paper provide valuable evidence and implications for policymakers in managing and improving national intellectual capital in the Asia–Pacific region.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study to examine the impact of national intellectual capital on economic growth in the long run in the Asia–Pacific economies.

Impact of remittances on domestic investment in West African countries: the mediating role of financial development

Several studies have analyzed the effect of remittances and financial development on growth or investment with little attention on their interactive effect. This study examines the relationship between remittances, financial development and domestic investment under different levels of financial development in a panel of 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. The research uses data covering the period 1975–2019 and employs panel Pooled Mean Group estimator. The results reveal that both remittances and financial development have positive effects on domestic investment. The positive interactive effect lends credence to that remittances and financial development act as complements in enhancing domestic investment. This suggests that financial sector is a strong transmission channel through which remittances positively affect investment in West African countries. The results further reveal that there exists a threshold effect of financial development in the remittances and investment nexus. More precisely, beyond a threshold of domestic credit to the private sector of about 21% of GDP, there is a positive and significant relationship between remittances and investment rate, while this relationship is negative under the threshold. It is, therefore, recommended that West African countries should adopt appropriate policies to increase their financial sector and lower transaction costs so that gains from remittances can effectively be channeled into investment and growth. In sum, issue of the mediating role of financial development needs to be taken into consideration in the examination of the nexus between remittances and investment.

Effect of Trade and Industrialisation on Environmental Sustainability: The Case of African Countries

This study explores the effect of trade and industrialisation on environmental sustainability in Africa. To achieve the study objective, the pooled mean group estimation strategy was employed on data from 1990 to 2019 for 38 selected African countries. Findings are indicative that trade has a negative and significant effect on ecological footprint in the long run. It is iemplied that trade enhancement has the tendency to enhance environmental sustainability in African countries. In addition, industrialisation has a positive and significant effect on ecological footprint. Implied is that industrialisation dampens environmental sustainability in African countries. Similarly, foreign direct investment inflows into African countries exert a positive but insignificant effect on ecological footprint. The result further depicts that economic growth positively and significantly impacts ecological footprints in African countries. Also, renewable energy consumption has a negative and significant effects on ecological footprint, suggesting that the adoption of renewable energy plays a crucial role in enhancing environmental sustainability in African countries. The short-run result reveals no significant relationship between trade, industrialisation, foreign direct investment and ecological footprints. Population growth has a positive effect on ecological footprint, albeit not a statistically significant effect. Furthermore, the result depicts that renewable energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on ecological footprints in African countries. On the strength of the findings, we recommend the stimulation of domestic trade and the strengthening of industrial policies to ensure environmental sustainability in African countries. JEL Codes: C33, F14, F18, R11

Do institutions matter for oil prices and economic growth relationship?: A regulatory policy implication

This study empirically investigates the moderating effect of institutional quality on the oil price-economic growth relationship among selected African oil-importing economies for a thirty-year period from 1990 to 2020. The study employs a panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) model using a pooled mean group estimator (PMG) with oil price and institutional quality as the main variables. Results from the analyses indicate that oil price increase has a negative effect on economic growth in oil-importing countries and these results are consistent with the previous findings by Kudabayeva et al. (2024) amongst others. Moreover, the study established a positive and significant effect of institutional quality on economic growth. The positive and significant effect of the interaction term between oil price and institutional quality suggests that better quality institutions are critical for moderating the negative effects of oil price changes on economic growth, consistent with findings by Abdelsalam (2023). The findings from this study suggest that net oil importers should focus on eliminating dependency on oil energy and promote investment into alternative non-petroleum renewable energy sources for sustainable development. Policy reforms should focus on strengthening of robust institutions to mitigate the effects of oil price shocks and promote the growth prospects of African countries.

The trade led-growth hypothesis in China and G8 countries: pooled mean group estimation

The trade led-growth hypothesis in China and G8 countries: pooled mean group estimation