Pollution fluxes from rivers into the sea are currently the main source of pollutants in nearshore areas. Based on the source-sink process of the basin-estuary-coastal waters system, the pollution fluxes into the sea and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity were estimated. A deep learning-based model was established to simplify the estimation of pollution fluxes into the sea, with socio-economic drivers and meteorological data as input variables. A method for estimating the contribution rate of pollution fluxes from different spatial gradient was proposed. In this study, we found that (1) the pollution fluxes into the sea of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from the Bohai Sea Rim Basin (BSRB) in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 25.38 × 104, 26.12 × 104, 27.27 × 104, 29.82 × 104, 25.31 × 104 and 1.32 × 104, 2.14 × 104, 2.09 × 104, 1.87 × 104, 1.68 × 104 tons, respectively. (2) The proportion of rural life and livestock to the TN was the highest, accounting for 39.18 % and 21.19 %, respectively. The proportion of livestock to the TP was the highest, accounting for 39.20 %, followed by rural life, accounting for 24.72 %. The results indicated that the pollution fluxes in the BSRB were related to human economic activities and relevant environmental protection measures. (3) The deep learning-based model established to estimate runoff pollution fluxes into the sea had the accuracy of over 90 %. (4) As for contribution rate, in terms of the elevation, the range of 0–100 m had the highest proportion, accounting for 39.65 %. The range of 50–100 km from the coastline had the highest proportion, accounting for 18.11 %. In terms of the district, coastal area has the highest proportion, accounting for 38.00 %. This study revealed the changing trends and driving mechanisms of pollution fluxes into the sea over the past 40 years and established a simplified deep learning-based model for estimating pollution fluxes into the sea. Then, we identified regions with high pollution contribution rate. The results can provide scientific references for the adaptive management of the nearshore areas based on the ecosystem.
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