European Pollution Research Articles

Carbon Giants: Exploring the Top 100 Industrial CO2 Emitters in the EU

We analyze emissions and associated damages from the top 100 industrial CO2 emitters in the EU using data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register, the EU Transaction Log, population grids, and regional information. These top emitters account for 19% of total EU CO2 emissions, 39% of industrial CO2 emissions, as well as a third of industrial SOx and NOx emissions, and a significant share of industrial PM10 emissions. In 2017, monetized damages of hazardous co-pollutants range from 20 to 67 billion Euros, and combined co-pollutant and climate damages amount to between 92 and 260 billion Euros. The top 100 alone would exhaust the EU’s carbon budget in a few decades. The joint climate and co-pollutant damages of a significant number of the top 100 exceed the economic value generated by the entire industry sector in their respective regions, indicating substantial underregulation. Yet the top 100 received free EU Emissions Trading System permits for 27% of their carbon emissions. Many top emitters are located in densely populated regions, with 3.1% of EU’s population living within 10 kilometers of a Carbon Giant. Our analysis reveals the critical importance of addressing major emitters in research and policymaking.

Differential exposure to second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in raptors from continental and insular regions of the Iberian Peninsula

The global impact of anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) on non-target species is well-recognized. Birds of prey, as apex predators, are highly vulnerable to AR exposure and are widely used as biomonitors for priority pollutants in Europe. This study investigates differential SGAR exposure in raptors from insular versus continental regions, hypothesizing greater exposure in insular areas due to ecological factors like reduced prey diversity, intensive rodenticide use, and resistant rodent populations. We analyzed the livers of 190 common kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) and 104 common buzzards (Buteo buteo) across the Iberian Peninsula and its archipelagos using LC-MS/MS to assess their role as AR sentinels and the differences between insular and continental areas. Results revealed a high prevalence (>80%) of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs), with brodifacoum and bromadiolone, being the most frequent. Multiple SGAR detections were also common (≈50%). A binomial logistic regression showed that species and region significantly influence the likelihood of SGAR exposure. Kestrels had a greater probability of exceeding 100 ng/g wet weight (ww) compared to buzzards. Raptors from insular territories were ten times more likely to have higher SGAR concentrations than those from continental areas. However, the legal restriction on SGAR bait concentrations that came into effect in 2018 did not significantly impact exposure levels. This study highlights the need for targeted conservation efforts to mitigate AR exposure risk in vulnerable island ecosystems.

The co-benefits of a low-carbon future for PM2.5 and O3 air pollution in Europe

Abstract. There is considerable academic interest in the potential for air quality improvement as a co-benefit of climate change mitigation. Few studies use regional air quality models for simulating future co-benefits, but many use global chemistry–climate model output. Using regional atmospheric chemistry could provide a better representation of air quality changes than global chemistry–climate models, especially by improving the representation of elevated urban concentrations. We use a detailed regional atmospheric-chemistry model (WRF-Chem v4.2) to model European air quality in 2050 compared to 2014 following three climate change mitigation scenarios. We represent different climate futures by using air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions (from CESM2-WACCM output) for three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0: high-, medium- and low-mitigation pathways respectively). We find that in 2050, following SSP1-2.6, mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations across European countries are reduced by 52 % compared to 2014. Under SSP2-4.5, this average reduction is 34%. The smallest average reduction is 18 %, achieved following SSP3-7.0. Maximum 6-monthly-mean daily-maximum 8 h (6mDM8h) ozone (O3) is reduced across Europe by 15 % following SSP1-2.6 and by 3 % following SSP2-4.5, but it increases by 13 % following SSP3-7.0. This demonstrates clear co-benefits of climate mitigation. The additional resolution allows us to analyse regional differences and identify key sectors. We find that the mitigation of agricultural emissions will be key for attaining meaningful co-benefits of mitigation policies, as evidenced by the importance of changes in NO3 aerosol mass to future PM2.5 air quality and changes in CH4 emissions to future O3 air quality.

Seasonal hot spots of pollution and risks in Western Kenya: A spatial-temporal analysis of almost 800 organic micropollutants

The release of chemicals into the environment presents a significant threat to aquatic ecosystems dependent on the proximity to emission sources and seasonal dynamics of emission and mobilization. While spatial-temporal information on water pollution in Europe is increasing, there are substantial knowledge gaps on seasonal pollution dynamics in tropical countries. Thus, we took Lake Victoria South Basin in western Kenya as a case study to identify spatial and seasonal hot spots of contamination, quantified toxic risks to different groups of organisms, and identified seasonal risk drivers. For this purpose, we analyzed grab water samples from five rivers with agricultural and wastewater treatment plants in their catchment in four different seasons. We used liquid chromatography coupled to high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) with a target list of 785 organic micropollutants. A total of 307 compounds were detected with concentrations ranging from 0.3 ng/L to 6.6 μg/L. Using a Toxic Unit (TU) approach based on mixture toxicity to standard test organisms, crustaceans were identified as the most affected group followed by algae and fish. For crustaceans, chronic risk thresholds were exceeded in 96 % of all the samples, while 56 % of all samples are expected to be acutely toxic, with the highest risk in February during the dry season. High toxic unit values for algae and fish were recorded in July dry season and May wet season. Diazinon, imidacloprid, clothianidin and pirimiphos-methyl were the major drivers for crustacean toxicity while triclosan and different herbicide mixtures drive risks to algae in dry and wet seasons, respectively. A total of 18 chemicals were found to exceed acute and chronic environmental risk thresholds. With this study, strong spatial-temporal patterns of pollution, risks and risk drivers could be confirmed informing prioritization of monitoring and abatement to enhance water quality and reduce toxic risks.

Managerial and Financial Barriers to the Green Transition

Using data on 10,776 firms across 22 emerging markets, we show that both credit constraints and weak green management hold back corporate investment in green technologies embodied in new machinery, equipment, and vehicles. In contrast, investment in measures to explicitly reduce emissions and other pollution is mainly determined by the quality of a firm’s green management and less so by binding credit constraints. Data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register reveal the environmental impact of these organizational constraints. In areas where more firms are credit constrained and weakly managed, industrial facilities systematically emit more CO2 and pollutants. A counterfactual analysis shows that credit constraints and weak management have respectively kept CO2 emissions 4.5% and 2.3% above the levels that would have prevailed without such constraints. This is further corroborated by our finding that in localities where banks had to deleverage more due to the global financial crisis, carbon emissions by industrial facilities remained 5.6% higher a decade later. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00772 .

Corrigendum: Reviewing the links and feedbacks between climate change and air pollution in Europe

Corrigendum: Reviewing the links and feedbacks between climate change and air pollution in Europe

Ecological Risk Assessment of POPs Under Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe

Ecological Risk Assessment of POPs Under Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe

Trends in Air Pollution in Europe, 2000–2019

Trends in Air Pollution in Europe, 2000–2019

From Transition Risks to the Relationship between Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth, and Renewable Energy

Currently, energy consumption has increased exponentially. Using fossil fuels to produce energy generates high shares of carbon dioxide emissions and greenhouse gases. Moreover, financial authorities at the global and European levels have recognized that climate change poses new risks for individual financial institutions and financial stability. The analysis contributes to the literature in two critical ways. First, the research attempts to develop a map of the transition risk of the EU. In detail, it defines an indicator that will identify the transition risk the EU bears. Second, it analyzes any relationships between the CO2 emissions, economic growth, and the renewable energy of each European country from 1995 to 2020, highlighting the short and long-run relationships. The methodology used is the ARDL. The results show the long-run relationship between GDP, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions is evident. Indeed, economic growth may increase environmental pollution in Europe, while an increase in using renewable energy may reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, this implies the trade-off between economic development and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the results indicate the difference in the short-run relationship across countries. However, the results demonstrate that the choice of the European Union to increase the use of renewable energies is more than fair.

S29-01: State of the science of air pollution in Europe

S29-01: State of the science of air pollution in Europe

Health protection and climate change require ambitious limit values for air pollutants in Europe : Opinion on the revision of the Directive on Air Quality and Clean Air for Europe of the Environmental Public Health commission of the Robert Koch Institute and the Federal Environment Agency

Based on scientific findings, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended stricter guideline values for air quality in 2021. Significant reductions in the annual mean values of particulate matter (particle size 2.5 µm or smaller, PM2.5) and long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) were put forward. The risk of mortality already increases above the WHO guideline values, as shown in studies investigating low concentrations of air pollutants. In Germany, the 2021 WHO guideline values for PM2.5 and NO2 were clearly exceeded in 2022.In this position paper we give the following recommendations for the European Air Quality Directive: (1)set binding limit values according to WHO 2021, (2)apply the limit values to the whole of Europe, (3)continue and expand the established country-based monitoring networks, (4)expand air quality measurements for ultrafine particles and soot particles, and (5)link air pollution control and climate protection measures.Stricter limits for air pollutants require societal and political changes in areas such as mobility, energy use and generation, and urban and spatial planning. Implementation according to WHO 2021 would lead to anet economic benefit of 38billion euros per year.Ambitious limit values for air pollutants also have an impact on climate change mitigation and its health impacts. The Environmental Public Health commission concludes that more ambitious limit values are crucial to enable effective health protection in Germany and calls for air pollutant limit values in line with the 2021 WHO recommendations to become binding in Europe.

Abrupt exacerbation in air quality over Europe after the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war

Much attention has been paid to the world economy and social situations in response to the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine in the context of COVID-19. However, much less attention has been paid to the detrimental effect of war on the atmospheric environment. Here, we used an extended deweathered-detrended technique to quantitatively evaluate changes in ambient NO2, O3, and PM2.5 AQI levels arising from emission changes (due to pandemic-driven lockdowns and war-related activities) in European cities. Results show pandemic-induced lockdowns mitigated regional air pollution in Europe, but the war activities led to an average increase of approximately 9.78% in PM2.5 and 10.07% in NO2, along with an average decrease of about 7.93% in O3 levels in cities near the war zones. Moreover, the regional air pollution exacerbated by the war activities has offset the improvements in air quality observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The potential mechanism analysis show that the increase in atmospheric pollutant emissions driven by the war activities led to the complexity of chemical reactions in the mixed atmospheric system, which posed a huge challenge to the alleviation of air pollution in the region. This study highlights the urgent need for a ceasefire from an environmental perspective.

Optimal reactive nitrogen control pathways identified for cost-effective PM2.5 mitigation in Europe

Excess reactive nitrogen (Nr), including nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), contributes strongly to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution in Europe, posing challenges to public health. Designing cost-effective Nr control roadmaps for PM2.5 mitigation requires considering both mitigation efficiencies and implementation costs. Here we identify optimal Nr control pathways for Europe by integrating emission estimations, air quality modeling, exposure-mortality modeling, Nr control experiments and cost data. We find that phasing out Nr emissions would reduce PM2.5 by 2.3 ± 1.2 μg·m−3 in Europe, helping many locations achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and reducing PM2.5-related premature deaths by almost 100 thousand in 2015. Low-ambition NH3 controls have similar PM2.5 mitigation efficiencies as NOx in Eastern Europe, but are less effective in Western Europe until reductions exceed 40%. The efficiency for NH3 controls increases at high-ambition reductions while NOx slightly decreases. When costs are considered, strategies for both regions uniformly shift in favor of NH3 controls, as NH3 controls up to 50% remain 5-11 times more cost-effective than NOx per unit PM2.5 reduction, emphasizing the priority of NH3 control policies for Europe.

Local-to-regional methane emissions from the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) quantified using UAV-based atmospheric measurements

Abstract. Coal mining accounts for ∼12 % of the total anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions worldwide. The Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB), Poland, where large quantities of CH4 are emitted to the atmosphere via ventilation shafts of underground hard coal (anthracite) mines, is one of the hot spots of methane emissions in Europe. However, coal bed CH4 emissions into the atmosphere are poorly characterized. As part of the carbon dioxide and CH4 mission 1.0 (CoMet 1.0) that took place in May–June 2018, we flew a recently developed active AirCore system aboard an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to obtain CH4 and CO2 mole fractions 150–300 m downwind of five individual ventilation shafts in the USCB. In addition, we also measured δ13C-CH4, δ2H-CH4, ambient temperature, pressure, relative humidity, surface wind speed, and surface wind direction. We used 34 UAV flights and two different approaches (inverse Gaussian approach and mass balance approach) to quantify the emissions from individual shafts. The quantified emissions were compared to both annual and hourly inventory data and were used to derive the estimates of CH4 emissions in the USCB. We found a high correlation (R2=0.7–0.9) between the quantified and hourly inventory data-based shaft-averaged CH4 emissions, which in principle would allow regional estimates of CH4 emissions to be derived by upscaling individual hourly inventory data of all shafts. Currently, such inventory data is available only for the five shafts we quantified. As an alternative, we have developed three upscaling approaches, i.e., by scaling the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) annual inventory, the quantified shaft-averaged emission rate, and the shaft-averaged emission rate, which are derived from the hourly emission inventory. These estimates are in the range of 256–383 kt CH4 yr−1 for the inverse Gaussian (IG) approach and 228–339 kt CH4 yr−1 for the mass balance (MB) approach. We have also estimated the total CO2 emissions from coal mining ventilation shafts based on the observed ratio of CH4/CO2 and found that the estimated regional CO2 emissions are not a major source of CO2 in the USCB. This study shows that the UAV-based active AirCore system can be a useful tool to quantify local to regional point source methane emissions.

Predicting air quality via multimodal AI and satellite imagery

One of the most important major driving forces behind climate change and environmental issues that the Earth is currently facing is the pollution of the air which remains a key symptom of negative human influence on the environment. Air pollution is often invisible to the eye which can make its detection challenging, unlike the destruction of the land or waterways. Given that air-quality monitoring stations are typically ground-based, their abilities to detect pollutant distributions are often restricted to wide areas. Satellites, however, have the potential for studying the atmosphere at large; the European Space Agency (ESA) Copernicus project satellite, “Sentinel-5P” is a newly launched satellite capable of measuring a variety of pollutant information with publicly available data outputs. This paper seeks to create a multi-modal machine learning model for predicting air-quality metrics with high precision so that it will be applicable to locations where monitoring stations do not exist. The inputs of this model will include a fusion of ground measurements and satellite data with the goal of highlighting pollutant distribution and motivating change in societal and industrial behaviours. A contemporary method for fusing satellite information with pollution measurements is studied, suggesting that simpler models can work as effectively as neural network models that are constructed with state-of-the-art architectures. A new dataset of continental European pollution monitoring station measurements is created with features including altitude, population density, environmental classification of local areas, and satellite data from the ESA Copernicus project. This dataset is used to train a multi-modal ML model, Air Quality Network (AQNet) capable of fusing these various types of data sources to output predictions of various pollutants. These predictions are then aggregated to create an “air-quality index” that could be used to compare air quality over different regions. Three pollutants, NO2, O3, and PM10, are predicted successfully by AQNet and the network was found to be useful compared to a model only using satellite imagery. It was also found that the addition of supporting tabular data improves predictions. When testing the developed AQNet on out-of-sample data of the UK and Ireland, we obtain satisfactory estimates though on average pollution metrics were roughly overestimated by around 20%.

Constraining industrial ammonia emissions using hyperspectral infrared imaging

Atmospheric emissions of reactive nitrogen in the form of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ammonia (NH3) worsen air quality and upon deposition, dramatically affect the environment. Recent infrared satellite measurements have revealed that NH3 emitted by industries are an important and underestimated emission source. Yet, to assess these emissions, current satellite sounders are severely limited by their spatial resolution. In this paper, we analyse measurement data recorded in a series of imaging surveys that were conducted over industries in the Greater Berlin area (Germany). On board the aircraft were the Telops Hyper-Cam LW, targeting NH3 measurements in the longwave infrared at a resolution of 4 m and the SWING+ spectrometer targeting NO2 measurements in the UV–Vis at a resolution of 180 m.Two flights were carried out over German’s largest production facility of synthetic NH3, urea and other fertilizers. In both cases, a large NH3 plume was observed originating from the factory. Using a Gaussian plume model to take into account plume rise and dispersion, coupled with well-established radiative transfer and inverse methods, we retrieve vertical column densities. From these, we calculate NH3 emission fluxes using the integrated mass enhancement and cross-sectional flux methods, yielding consistent emissions of the order of 2200 t yr−1 for both flights, assuming constant fluxes across the year. These estimates are about five times larger than those reported in the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) for this plant. In the second campaign, a co-emitted NO2 plume was measured, likely related to the production of nitric acid at the plant.A third flight was carried out over an area comprising the cities of Staßfurt and Bernburg. Several small NH3 plumes were seen, one over a production facility of mineral wool insulation, one over a sugar factory and two over the soda ash plants in Staßfurt and Bernburg. A fifth and much larger plume was seen to originate from the sedimentation basins associated with the soda ash plant in Staßfurt, indicating rapid volatilization of ammonium rich effluents. We use the different measurement campaigns to simulate measurements of Nitrosat, a potential future satellite sounder dedicated to the sounding of reactive nitrogen at a resolution of 500 m. We demonstrate that such measurements would allow accurately constraining emissions in a single overpass, overcoming a number of important drawbacks of current satellite sounders.

Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) has been successfully used in the development of international agreements to reduce transboundary pollution in Europe, based on the GAINS model of IIASA. At a national level in the UK, a similar approach has been taken with the UK Integrated Assessment Model, UKIAM, superimposing pollution abatement measures and behavioural change on energy projections designed to meet targets set for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and allowing for natural and imported contributions from other countries and shipping. This paper describes how the UKIAM was used in the development of proposed targets for the reduction of fine particulate PM2.5 in the UK Environment Act, exploring scenarios encompassing different levels of ambition in reducing the emissions of air pollutants up to 2050, with associated health and other environmental benefits. There are two PM2.5 targets, an annual mean concentration target setting a maximum concentration to be reached by a future year, and a population exposure reduction target with benefits for health across the whole population. The work goes further, also demonstrating links to social deprivation. There is a strong connection between climate measures aimed at reducing net GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and future air quality, which may be positive or negative, as illustrated by sectoral studies for road transport where electrification of the fleet needs to match the evolution of energy production, and for domestic heating, where the use of wood for heating is an air quality issue. The UKIAM has been validated against air pollution measurements and other types of modelling, but there are many uncertainties, including future energy projections.

SENTIERI Project: air pollution and health impact of population living in industrial areas in Italy

to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and PM10 in the Italian industrial areas included in the SENTIERI project characterized by industrial plants with combustion processes deriving from point emissions. using satellite data, the Population Weighted Exposure (PWE) to PM2.5 and PM10 for 2011 and 2015 was estimated. The concentration-response functions available were used to estimate the number of premature deaths attributable to exposure to industrial emissions. The counterfactual levels recommended by the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines were used. for the selection of industrial plants, the European database on emissions of the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register was used. Residents in areas of 1 km x 1 km and 4 km x 4 km around the selected industrial plants were considered. the number of premature deaths from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and lung cancer was estimated. residents were exposed to PM2.5 values of 17.3 µg/m3 (Northern Italy: 23.3) and to 24.3 µg/m3 (Northern Italy: 30.3) of PM10. PWE for both pollutants tends to increase as the size of the area under study is reduced and it is generally higher everywhere in 2011 than in 2015, with values that are always higher than the average (overall) in the Norther Italy. In 2011, 1,709 (IC95% 1,309-1,903) and 1,611 (IC95% 1,225-2,353) non accidental premature deaths were estimated attributable to PM2.5 and PM10, respectively, in residents close to the industrial plants (1 km x 1 km). Deaths attributable to exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 tend to follow a North-Central-South&Islands gradient for all observed causes and for both years of analysis. although exposure assessment of the population by using random-forest model does not allow to disentangle the contribution of the industrial component, the results of the study are suggestive of an impact on health from PM exposure in the industrial areas considered, with a greater impact in the vicinity of the plants, recommending the implementation of urgent impact reduction actions.

Health risk assessment of the European inhabitants exposed to contaminated ambient particulate matter by potentially toxic elements

PM10-associated potential toxic elements (PTEs) can enter the respiratory system and cause health problems. In the current study, the health risk indices caused by PM10 inhalation by adults, children, and infants in 158 European cities between 2013 and 2019 were studied to determine if Europeans were adversely affected by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic factors or not. The Mann–Kendall trend test examined PM10's increasing or decreasing trend. Random Forest analysis was also used to analyse meteorological factors affecting PM10 in Europe. Hazard quotient and cancer risk were estimated using PM10-associated PTEs. Our results showed a decline in continental PM10 concentrations. The correlation between PM10 concentrations and temperature (−0.40), PBLH (−0.39), and precipitation were statistically strong (−0.21). The estimated Pearson correlation coefficients showed a statistically strong positive correlation between As & Pb, As & Cd, and Cd & Pb during 2013–2019, indicating a similar origin. PTEs with hazard quotients below one, regardless of subpopulation type, posed no noncancerous risk to Europeans. The hazard quotient values positively correlated with time, possibly due to elevated PTE levels. In our study on carcinogen pollution in Europe between 2013 and 2019, we found unacceptable levels of As, Cd, Ni, and Pb among adults, children, and infants. Carcinogenic risk rates were highest for children, followed by infants, adult women, and adult men. Therefore, besides monitoring and mitigating PM concentrations, effective control of PM sources is also needed.

Environmental ranking of European industrial facilities by toxicity and global warming potentials

We present a methodology to develop the integrated toxicity and climate change risk assessment of Europe based facilities, industries and regions. There is an increasingly important need for large scale sustainability measurement solutions for company reporting with high granularity. In this paper we measure key aspects of Sustainable Development Goals in terms of human, cancer and non-cancer toxicity, ecotoxicity together with global warming impact potentials from point source pollutant releases of more than 10,000 companies and their 33,000 facilities in Europe from 2001 to 2017, by using the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register. For our assessment, we deploy a scientific consensus model, USEtox for characterizing human and ecotoxicological impacts of chemicals and the global warming potential values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss water and air emissions of dozens of pollutants in urban, rural, coastal and inland areas. Companies in the electricity production sector are estimated to have the largest human toxicity impact potential (46% of total) and the largest global warming impact potential (50%), while companies in the sewerage sector have the largest ecotoxicity impact potential (50%). In the overall economy, the correlation between facilities’ global warming and toxicity impact potentials is positive, however, not very strong. Therefore, we argue that carbon footprint of industrial organizations can be only used as a climate change risk indicator, but not as an overall environmental performance indicator. We confirm impact potentials of major pollutants in previous research papers (Hg accounting for 76% of the total human toxicity and Zn accounting for 68% of total ecotoxicity), although we draw the attention to the limitations of USEtox in case of metals. From 2001 to 2017 total human toxicity dropped by 28%, although the downward trend reversed in 2016. Ecotoxicity and global warming impact potentials remained unchanged in the same period. Finally, we show that the European pollutant release monitoring data quality could be further improved, as only three quarters of the toxic releases are measured in the Member States of the European Union, and a high share of toxic pollutant releases are only estimated in some countries. Of the measured or calculated toxic releases, only one third is reported according to the most robust CEN/ISO standards and about one fifth according to the least preferred other methods, like engineering judgements.