Pollen-based Climate Reconstructions Research Articles

Were climatic forcings the main driver for mid-holocene changes in settlement dynamics on the Varamin Plain (Central Iranian Plateau)?

Settlement crises in ancient cultures of Western Asia are commonly thought to be caused by climatic events such as severe droughts. However, the insufficient climate proxy situation in this region challenges the inference of clear relationships between climate and settlement dynamics. We investigate the Holocene climatic changes on the Varamin Plain in the context of the climatic history of Western Central Asia by using a transient comprehensive Earth System Model simulation (8 ka BP to pre-industrial), a high-resolution regional snapshot simulation and a synthesis of pollen-based climate reconstructions. In line with the reconstructions, the models reveal only slightly varying mean climatic conditions on the Varamin Plain but indicate substantial changes in seasonality during the Holocene. Increased precipitation during spring, combined with lower temperature and potentially stronger snow accumulation on the upstream Alborz mountains may have led to an increased water supply on the alluvial fan during the vegetation period and thus to more favourable conditions for agricultural production during the Mid-Holocene compared to modern times. According to the model, dry periods on the Central Iranian Plateau are related to particularly weak Westerly winds, fostering the subsidence in the mid-troposphere and hampering precipitation over the region. The model reveals that dry periods have spatially heterogenous manifestations, thus explaining why they do not appear in all proxy records in the wider study region. In fact, the climatic signal may depend on local environmental conditions. The interaction of the topography with the atmospheric circulation leads to additional spatial heterogeneity. Although our results provide several indications for a connection between climate and settlement dynamics, the small overall changes in moisture call into question whether climate is the main driver for settlement discontinuities on the Central Iranian Plateau. To shed further light on this issue, more high-resolution long-term proxy records are needed.

LegacyClimate 1.0: a dataset of pollen-based climate reconstructions from 2594 Northern Hemisphere sites covering the last 30 kyr and beyond

Abstract. Here we describe LegacyClimate 1.0, a dataset of the reconstruction of the mean July temperature (TJuly), mean annual temperature (Tann), and annual precipitation (Pann) from 2594 fossil pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere, spanning the entire Holocene, with some records reaching back to the Last Glacial Period. Two reconstruction methods, the modern analog technique (MAT) and weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS), reveal similar results regarding spatial and temporal patterns. To reduce the impact of precipitation on temperature reconstruction, and vice versa, we also provide reconstructions using tailored modern pollen data, limiting the range of the corresponding other climate variables. We assess the reliability of the reconstructions, using information from the spatial distributions of the root mean squared error in the prediction and reconstruction significance tests. The dataset is beneficial for synthesis studies of proxy-based reconstructions and to evaluate the output of climate models and thus help to improve the models themselves. We provide our compilation of reconstructed TJuly, Tann, and Pann as open-access datasets at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.930512; Herzschuh et al., 2023a). The R code for the reconstructions is provided at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7887565; Herzschuh et al., 2023b), including the harmonized open-access modern and fossil datasets used for the reconstructions, so that customized reconstructions can be easily established.

Quantification of Asian monsoon variability from 68 ka BP through pollen-based climate reconstruction

The glacial-interglacial variability of precipitation and its driving mechanism in monsoonal regions has long been a subject of debate. However, there are few records of quantitative climate reconstruction dating to the last glacial cycle in areas dominated by the Asian summer monsoon. Here, using a pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction based on three sites in areas exposed to the Asian summer monsoon, we demonstrate that climate has undergone great variability over the past 68 ka. The differences between the last glacial and the Holocene optimum could have been as much as 35%–51% for precipitation, and 5–7 °C for mean annual temperature. Our findings also reveal regional heterogeneity during the abrupt climate events of Heinrich Event 1 and Younger Dryas, that drove drier conditions in southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, and a wetter climate in central eastern China. The pattern of variation in reconstructed precipitation, exhibiting strong glacial-interglacial variability, is broadly consistent with the stalagmite δ18O records from Southwest China and South Asia. Our results of reconstruction quantify the sensitivity of the MIS3 precipitation to orbital insolation changes, and highlight the prominent influence of interhemispheric temperature gradients on Asian monsoon variability. Comparison with transient simulations and major climate forcings has shown that the mode of precipitation variability during the transition from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene has been significantly modulated by weak or collapsed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation events in addition to insolation forcing.

Mid-Holocene high-resolution temperature and precipitation gridded reconstructions over China: Implications for elevation-dependent temperature changes

Driven by enhanced summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere and land-atmosphere feedbacks during the mid-Holocene (MH), most regions of China were characterized by warmer and wetter summer than present. The MH has been recognized as a benchmark period for climate simulations, but proxy-based reconstructions and model results show some key discrepancies in climate reconstructions. A lack of accurate gridded climate data is a major obstacle to land surface modelling, which is contributing to uncertainties in climate simulations. Here we developed a monthly gridded dataset of temperature and precipitation for MH China through applying eight interpolation methods to 159 pollen-based climate reconstructions for January and July from previous studies. The gridded dataset is consistent with these input records and other independent climate reconstructions at 62 sites. Then, the temperature differences between the MH and pre-industrial period are correlated with elevations in China. Results show a significant elevation-dependent temperature amplification of 0.59°C/km for July during the MH relative to pre-industrial period. In addition, our gridded reconstructions of the MH climate were compared with climate simulations for the MH and for the future medium-emission scenario. Most simulations significantly underestimated the magnitude of climate anomalies during the MH in China. Similar to the MH, a pronounced warming in winter and a strong wetting in summer are projected in China at the end of this century (i.e., 2091–2100), suggesting analogous seasonal changes during the MH and future. This first high-resolution proxy-based gridded climate dataset for MH China can be used in land surface modelling to improve our understanding of terrestrial changes during the MH, which in turn is expected to facilitate the climate simulations.

Modern pollen–climate relationships and their application for pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction of the mid-Holocene on the southern Korean Peninsula

A modern pollen dataset is a prerequisite for reconstructing quantitative paleoclimate and paleovegetation cover using fossil pollen records. Although multiple modern pollen–climate datasets have been established covering a wide range of climate conditions, such datasets are exceedingly rare for the Korean Peninsula (KP). In this study, we acquired a modern pollen dataset from 198 surface soil samples collected on 37 mountains on the southern KP. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning results identified mean annual temperature (Tann) as the most important climate variable shaping pollen assemblages on the southern KP. Using the pollen–climate relationships inferred from the RDA, we applied the Huisman–Olff–Fresco model and determined that arboreal pollen taxa responded sensitively to the climatic gradient, whereas non-arboreal pollen taxa did not. We applied weighted averaging–partial least squares (WA-PLS) and the modern analog technique (MAT) to the pollen dataset, and a comparison of the results showed that MAT performed better than WA-PLS. A transfer function was applied to fossil pollen records from the areas covered by our dataset; the results confirmed that annual precipitation (Pann) and Tann were modulated by different mechanisms, with Pann strongly affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation-driven typhoons during the Holocene, whereas Tann was mainly influenced by the Tsushima Warm Current from 7500 to 5100 cal yr BP depending on Kuroshio Current inflow intensity, and subsequently followed by the East Asian winter monsoon during 5100–3400 cal yr BP.

Coastal submersions in the north-eastern Adriatic during the last 5200 years

In the context of industrial-era global change, Mediterranean coastal areas are threatened by relative sea level (RSL) rise. Shifts in the drivers of coastal dynamics are forecasted to trigger changes in the frequency of flooding of low-lying areas, with significant effects on marine-coastal environments, societies, economy and urban systems. Here, we probe coastal floods in the eastern part of the Gulf of Venice (coastal Croatia) to understand the drivers of saltwater intrusions. We reconstructed RSL rise in the north-eastern Adriatic during the Holocene based on 43 RSL index points and analyzed the evolution of coastal submersions on the Istrian Peninsula for the last 5200 years based on inputs of marine components and increases in supratidal scrubs. We produced pollen-based climate reconstructions to analyze the potential effects of air temperature and precipitation changes on submersions. We investigated the response of precipitation and temperature to mid-late Holocene summer/winter insolation forcing and insolation-induced changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We found that during periods of warmer SST, coastal flooding increased markedly. This process seems to have been initiated by warmer atmospheric temperatures that led to increases in summer evaporation, counterbalancing the effects of heavy precipitation during winter. As a result, freshwater flows into coastal areas were reduced and resulted in recurrent inputs of saltwater inland. Our study suggests that present-day climate drivers (increases in SSTs and air temperatures, and decreases in precipitation) will probably favour frequent coastal flooding, a process that will be amplified by RSL rise.

Temperature reconstructions for the last 1.74-Ma on the eastern Tibetan Plateau based on a novel pollen-based quantitative method

Terrestrial palaeo-temperature data are of great value in improving our understanding of past climate and they provide a basis for evaluating climate simulations. Such data are, however, poorly constrained for long time-scales. In addition to the scarcity of high-quality continuous time-series, finding proxies with a clear response to past temperature changes and developing appropriate reconstruction methods are major challenges. We present a new and robust method – Locally-weighted Weighted-average partial least squares (LW-WAPLS) to reconstruct quantitative temperature changes based on a high-resolution 1.74-Ma pollen record from the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, where the vegetation today is mainly controlled by temperature. The reconstructed mean annual (MAT) and warmest month (MTWM) temperatures reveal a general cooling trend with two major shifts at ~1.54 and 0.62 Ma BP, and regular glacial-interglacial variability ranging from ~ − 4 to 2 °C and from 8 to 16 °C, respectively. They indicate ~4–5 °C (MAT) and ~ 5–6 °C (MTWM) magnitudes of glacial-interglacial temperatures. Both statistical and ecological evaluations validate the reliability of the reconstructions. The reconstructions provide important insights into the spatial aspects of long-term terrestrial temperature change. LW-WAPLS shows advantages over both the traditional modern analogue technique and non-linear transfer-function methodologies such as WAPLS for reconstructing the broad-scale climate changes for the Zoige Basin, by combining the strength of both methods. The LW-WAPLS approach potentially provides a robust tool to develop pollen-based climate reconstructions over long time-scales.

Holocene negative coupling of summer temperature and moisture availability over southeastern arid Central Asia

The Holocene moisture–temperature correlation on varying spatial–temporal scales in arid Central Asia (ACA) is still controversial. It has been widely reported that ACA experienced multi-centennial alternations between warm/dry and cold/wet climates over the past two millennia. However, less attention has focused on orbital-scale moisture–temperature relationship at a regional scale across ACA. Here, we contribute a framework including a set of quantitative algorithms to acquire reliable pollen-based climatic reconstructions. We apply this methodology to a new pollen record from a wetland in northern Xinjiang (southeastern ACA) for quantitative reconstructions of moisture availability (actual/potential evapotranspiration ratio, AET/PET) and summer temperature (mean temperature of the warmest month, MTWA) over circa the last 10,300 years. We select AET/PET and MTWA because they are evaluated to be most statistically independent and ecologically significant. The effect of differing spatial extents of calibration-sets on model performance is tested to determine the optimal extent. We critically assess the reliability of all reconstructions through calculations of statistical significance, analogue quality and goodness-of-fit statistics. Our final reconstructions are statistically significant with independent features of AET/PET and MTWA, showing an increasing (declining) trend of Holocene moisture (temperature). This anti-phase pattern is consistent with other records and model simulations across southeastern ACA. The data-model consistency postulates that (i) the glacier meltwater from Tien Shan (‘Water Tower of Central Asia’) is crucial to support major streamflow and watersheds over ACA, and (ii) the Holocene wetting trend may be determined by the interacting effects between decreased summer temperature and increased winter precipitation.

Pollen-based climate reconstruction from Ebi Lake in northwestern China, Central Asia, over the past 37,000 years

Ebi (or Aibi) Lake is located in southwestern Junggar Basin in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of northwestern China. In this study, we collected fossil pollen samples from the top 11.4 m of an Ebi core to reconstruct climate variability during the Late Quaternary. Results of a principal component analysis (PCA) of terrestrial pollen taxa from the Ebi core showed that four principal components explained 90.9% of the total variance. The chronology of the core section was determined based on five 14C dates obtained by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) and five dates obtained by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). The studied section encompassed the Late Quaternary periods (37.6–3.6 cal ka). Environmental changes in Ebi Lake were divided into four stages based on significant pollen assemblage changes. From 37.6 to 34.5 cal ka, climate conditions were warm and dry. The climate became warmer and wetter between 34.5 and 28 cal ka and then deteriorated to cold and dry during 28 to 9 cal ka. High temperatures and dry conditions during the Early Holocene (11–9 cal ka) may have caused forest fires. From 9 to 3.6 cal ka, the climate was warm and wet; however, pollen data indicate that it was relatively drier between 6 and 4 cal ka. Available soil moisture during MIS 3 stage was less than that of the Holocene Optimum especially during 37.6–34.5 cal ka.

Climate change on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past ~ 600 years inferred from peat pollen records

A 600-year high-resolution pollen record from a peat core (FS-2010) on the Zoigê Plateau was obtained to reconstruct vegetation and climate changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Surface pollen data reveal that vegetation differences are reflected in different modern pollen assemblages. Fossil pollen data indicate that alpine meadow was the dominant vegetation type on the Zoigê Plateau during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to ~1900 AD. Pollen-based climatic reconstructions indicate climatic fluctuations during this period consistent with records from neighboring areas. Specifically, relatively “warm-wet” conditions persisted from ~1400 to ~1500 AD and ~1800 to ~1900 AD, but generally “cool-dry” conditions from ~1500 to ~1800 AD. The reconstructed temperature variations during the LIA (i.e., ~1400 to ~1900 AD) were attributed to variations in total solar irradiation. This study casts further doubt on the FG/MG (subalpine forest and shrub group/alpine meadow group) ratio as a reliable indicator of temperature reduction during the Current Warm Period (CWP; post ~1900 AD) due to significant anthropogenic impacts including deforestation and swamp drainage. The reconstructed patterns of precipitation in the Zoigê Plateau including Flower Swamp are shown to be contingent on variations in the strength of the Asian Monsoon.

Modern pollen rain, vegetation and climate along elevation gradients in the upper-middle Yellow River: numerical approaches for quantitative environmental reconstruction

A total of 245 modern pollen samples available in the East Asian Pollen Database and our unpublished pollen data (n = 204 and 41, respectively) were compiled to determine the correlation between modern pollen rain and vegetation in the watershed regions along the upper and middle Yellow River (UMYR) using principle component analysis (PCA). Despite considerable geographical differences and an uneven spatial vegetation distribution, pollen assemblages could differentiate major vegetation and climate zones. The PCA result reveals a high correlation between pollen taxa and key environmental factors, suggesting the high potential of this database for quantitative climate reconstruction. After screening, 199 samples were finally used to quantitatively reconstruct climate parameters with three methods namely, the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) method, locally weighed weighted averaging (LWWA) method, and modern analogue technique (MAT).The comparison of multiple reconstructions indicates that WA-PLS provides quite accurate climate reconstructions from limited pollen data, whereas LWWA and MAT appear more suitable for large pollen datasets associated with a broad geographic range. We also discovered that the selection of sub-divided watershed areas yielded significant reduction in prediction errors and, in turn, improved accuracy of the quantitative climate reconstruction. The statistical results indicate that the transfer functions are reliable for both climate variables and elevation that is controlled mainly by the lapse rate of the altitudinal temperature. The current study provides evidence that modern pollen data in the UMYR can be used as a reliable reference dataset for pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions.

Arctic shrub colonization lagged peak postglacial warmth: Molecular evidence in lake sediment from Arctic Canada.

Arctic shrubification is an observable consequence of climate change, already resulting in ecological shifts and global-scale climate feedbacks including changes in land surface albedo and enhanced evapotranspiration. However, the rate at which shrubs can colonize previously glaciated terrain in a warming world is largely unknown. Reconstructions of past vegetation dynamics in conjunction with climate records can provide critical insights into shrubification rates and controls on plant migration, but paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on pollen may be biased by the influx of exotic pollen to tundra settings. Here, we reconstruct past plant communities using sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), which has a more local source area than pollen. We additionally reconstruct past temperature variability using bacterial cell membrane lipids (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) and an aquatic productivity indicator (biogenic silica) to evaluate the relative timing of postglacial ecological and climate changes at a lake on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. The sedaDNA record tightly constrains the colonization of dwarf birch (Betula, a thermophilous shrub) to 5.9±0.1ka, ~3ka after local deglaciation as determined by cosmogenic 10 Be moraine dating and >2ka later than Betula pollen is recorded in nearby lake sediment. We then assess the paleovegetation history within the context of summer temperature and find that paleotemperatures were highest prior to 6.3ka, followed by cooling in the centuries preceding Betula establishment. Together, these molecular proxies reveal that Betula colonization lagged peak summer temperatures, suggesting that inefficient dispersal, rather than climate, may have limited Arctic shrub migration in this region. In addition, these data suggest that pollen-based climate reconstructions from high latitudes, which rely heavily on the presence and abundance of pollen from thermophilous taxa like Betula, can be compromised by both exotic pollen fluxes and vegetation migration lags.

Characteristics of the modern pollen assemblages from different vegetation zones in Northeast China: Implications for pollen-based climate reconstruction

Northeast China is an essential area for studying the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), due to its northernmost location in EASM domain. However, the lack of sufficient modern pollen data in this region hinders an effective interpretation of fossil pollen records and quantitative vegetation/climate reconstructions. Here, 44 surface pollen samples from forest, steppe, and meadow were used to explore pollen-vegetation-climate relationships. Cluster analysis, species indicator analysis, and principal components analysis, were used to identify the discontinuous and continuous trends in pollen dataset. In addition, correlation analysis and boosted regression trees were used to investigate primary explanatory variables, while coinertia analysis and redundancy analysis to examine pollen-vegetation and pollen-climate correlations respectively. Our results show that: (1) vegetation can be well represented by surface pollen assemblages, i.e. forest is characterized by a high proportion of tree pollen (>70%) dominated by Betula (>40%) along with Alnus, Larix, and Pinus, whereas Steppe by herb pollen (>80%), dominated by Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae; (2) significant correlations exist between pollen assemblages and mean annual temperature and then mean annual precipitation; (3) pollen ratios of Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae and arboreal/non-arboreal can respectively be used as good indicators of humidity and temperature in Northeast China.

Improving the quality of pollen-climate calibration-sets is the primary step for ensuring reliable climate reconstructions

Pollen-based climate reconstructions have been widely applied in China as an essential way to investigate quantitatively past climate change, which is necessary to improve the reliability of future climate predictions. However, their usefulness is often doubted, particularly for those regions with a long history of civilization (e.g. East China), where both the modern and past vegetation are heavily disturbed by human activities.Which factors influence the integrity of pollen-based climate reconstructions and how to improve their reliability are rigorous challenges for palynologists. Previous work focusing on these two questions has used modern pollen data from China or eastern continental Asia and mainly concludes that past climate reconstruction is quite sensitive to the quality of the calibration-set.

Heterogeneous vegetation sensitivity at local and regional scales: Implications for pollen-based climate reconstruction

Vegetation–climate relationships are often different at varying spatial scales, which is seldom taken into account in reconstructing past climate changes from fossil pollen spectra represent more local vegetation composition but using regional or extra-regional modern pollen–climate calibration set. In this paper, we employ 2620 surface pollen spectra and six pollen sequences from continental East Asia to reconstruct Holocene climate with modern analogue technique. A novel data set of vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) is introduced to examine vegetation–climate relationships in 0.5° search windows around the fossil sites (local) and in the tailored calibration sets (regional). Then, we compare them to the explanatory abilities of (reconstructed) climate variables on explaining the pollen variance in calibration sets and in the fossil pollen data sets using constrained ordination, cross-validation and significance test. By this procedure that we called local–regional–fossil comparison, we can better determine which variable reconstruction is valid and useful. In our cases, moisture variable reconstructions in temperate forest-steppe ecotone at the East Asian summer monsoon margin are reliable. Consistent Holocene moisture variations with a strong monsoon influence during 8.6–4.0 cal ka BP which can help us to better interpret human adaptations along the Great Wall. However, quantitative climate reconstructions at some sites are less reliable due to highly heterogeneous vegetation sensitivities surrounding the site, particularly for areas with complicated topographical contexts. We stress that vegetation sensitivities at local and regional scales both need to be investigated before conducting quantitative climate reconstruction.

Centennial-scale vegetation dynamics and climate variability in SE Europe during Marine Isotope Stage 11 based on a pollen record from Lake Ohrid

To better understand climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, we here present a new, centennial-scale-resolution pollen record from Lake Ohrid (Balkan Peninsula) derived from sediment cores retrieved during an International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) campaign. Our palynological data, augmented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions, provide insight into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability in SE Europe during one of the best orbital analogues for the Holocene. Comparison of our palynological results with other proxy data from Lake Ohrid as well as with regional and global climate records shows that the vegetation in SE Europe responded sensitively both to long- and short-term climate change during MIS 11. The chronology of our palynological record is based on orbital tuning, and is further supported by the detection of a new tephra from the Vico volcano, central Italy, dated to 410 ± 2 ka. Our study indicates that MIS 11c (∼424–398 ka) was the warmest interval of MIS 11. The younger part of the interglacial (i.e., MIS 11b–11a; ∼398–367 ka) exhibits a gradual cooling trend passing over into MIS 10. It is characterized by considerable millennial-scale variability as inferred by six abrupt forest-contraction events. Interestingly, the first forest contraction occurred during full interglacial conditions of MIS 11c; this event lasted for ∼1.7 kyrs (406.2–404.5 ka) and was characterized by substantial reductions in winter temperature and annual precipitation. Most notably, it occurred ∼7 ka before the end of MIS 11c and ∼15 ka before the first strong ice-rafted debris event in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that millennial-scale climate variability during MIS 11 was established in Southern Europe already during MIS 11c, which is earlier than in the North Atlantic where it is registered only from MIS 11b onwards.

Examining bias in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions induced by human impact on vegetation in China

Abstract. Human impact is a well-known confounder in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions as most terrestrial ecosystems have been artificially affected to varying degrees. In this paper, we use a human-induced pollen dataset (H-set) and a corresponding natural pollen dataset (N-set) to establish pollen–climate calibration sets for temperate eastern China (TEC). The two calibration sets, taking a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) approach, are used to reconstruct past climate variables from a fossil record, which is located at the margin of the East Asian summer monsoon in north-central China and covers the late glacial Holocene from 14.7 ka BP (thousands of years before AD 1950). Ordination results suggest that mean annual precipitation (Pann) is the main explanatory variable of both pollen composition and percentage distributions in both datasets. The Pann reconstructions, based on the two calibration sets, demonstrate consistently similar patterns and general trends, suggesting a relatively strong climate impact on the regional vegetation and pollen spectra. However, our results also indicate that the human impact may obscure climate signals derived from fossil pollen assemblages. In a test with modern climate and pollen data, the Pann influence on pollen distribution decreases in the H-set, while the human influence index (HII) rises. Moreover, the relatively strong human impact reduces woody pollen taxa abundances, particularly in the subhumid forested areas. Consequently, this shifts their model-inferred Pann optima to the arid end of the gradient compared to Pann tolerances in the natural dataset and further produces distinct deviations when the total tree pollen percentages are high (i.e. about 40 % for the Gonghai area) in the fossil sequence. In summary, the calibration set with human impact used in our experiment can produce a reliable general pattern of past climate, but the human impact on vegetation affects the pollen–climate relationship and biases the pollen-based climate reconstruction. The extent of human-induced bias may be rather small for the entire late glacial and early Holocene interval when we use a reference set called natural. Nevertheless, this potential bias should be kept in mind when conducting quantitative reconstructions, especially for the recent 2 or 3 millennia.

Environmental Drivers of Holocene Forest Development in the Middle Atlas, Morocco

In semi-arid regions subject to rising temperatures and drought, palaeoecological insights into past vegetation dynamics under a range of boundary conditions are needed to develop our understanding of environmental response to climatic changes. Here, we present a new high-resolution record of vegetation history and fire activity spanning the last 12,000 years from Lake Sidi Ali in the southern Middle Atlas Mountains, Morocco. The record is underpinned by a robust AMS radiocarbon and 210Pb/137Cs chronology and multi-proxy approach allowing direct comparison of vegetation, hydroclimate and catchment tracers. The record reveals the persistence of steppic landscapes until 10,340 cal yr BP, prevailing sclerophyll woodland with evergreen Quercus until 6300 cal yr BP, predominance of montane conifers (Cedrus and Cupressaceae) until 1300 cal yr BP with matorralization and increased fire activity from 4320 cal yr BP, and major reduction of forest cover after 1300 cal yr BP. Detailed comparisons between the pollen record of Lake Sidi Ali (2080 m a.s.l.) and previously published data from nearby Tigalmamine (1626 m a.s.l.) highlight common patterns of vegetation change in response to Holocene climatic and anthropogenic drivers, as well as local differences relating to elevation and bioclimate contrasts between the sites. Variability in evergreen Quercus and Cedrus at both sites supports a Holocene summer temperature maximum between 9000 and 7000 cal yr BP in contrast with previous large-scale pollen-based climate reconstructions, and furthermore indicates pervasive millennial temperature variability. Millennial-scale cooling episodes are inferred from Cedrus expansion around 10,200, 8200, 6100, 4500, 3000 and 1700 cal yr BP, and during the Little Ice Age (400 cal yr BP). A two-part trajectory of Late Holocene forest decline is evident, with gradual decline from 4320 cal yr BP linked to synergism between pastoralism, increased fire and low winter rainfall, and a marked reduction from 1300 cal yr BP, attributed to intensification of human activity around the Early Muslim conquest of Morocco. This trajectory, however, does not mask vegetation responses to millennial climate variability. The findings reveal the sensitive response of Middle Atlas forests to rapid climate changes and underscore the exposure of the montane forest ecosystems to future warming.

Assessing performance and seasonal bias of pollen-based climate reconstructions in a perfect model world

Abstract. Reconstructions of summer, winter or annual mean temperatures based on the species composition of bio-indicators such as pollen, foraminifera or chironomids are routinely used in climate model–proxy data comparison studies. Most reconstruction algorithms exploit the joint distribution of modern spatial climate and species distribution for the development of the reconstructions. They rely on the space-for-time substitution and the specific assumption that environmental variables other than those reconstructed are not important or that their relationship with the reconstructed variable(s) should be the same in the past as in the modern spatial calibration dataset. Here we test the implications of this “correlative uniformitarianism” assumption on climate reconstructions in an ideal model world, in which climate and vegetation are known at all times. The alternate reality is a climate simulation of the last 6000 years with dynamic vegetation. Transient changes of plant functional types are considered as surrogate pollen counts and allow us to establish, apply and evaluate transfer functions in the modeled world. We find that in our model experiments the transfer function cross validation r2 is of limited use to identify reconstructible climate variables, as it only relies on the modern spatial climate–vegetation relationship. However, ordination approaches that assess the amount of fossil vegetation variance explained by the reconstructions are promising. We furthermore show that correlations between climate variables in the modern climate–vegetation relationship are systematically extended into the reconstructions. Summer temperatures, the most prominent driving variable for modeled vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere, are accurately reconstructed. However, the amplitude of the model winter and mean annual temperature cooling between the mid-Holocene and present day is overestimated and similar to the summer trend in magnitude. This effect occurs because temporal changes of a dominant climate variable, such as summer temperatures in the model's Arctic, are imprinted on a less important variable, leading to reconstructions biased towards the dominant variable's trends. Our results, although based on a model vegetation that is inevitably simpler than reality, indicate that reconstructions of multiple climate variables based on modern spatial bio-indicator datasets should be treated with caution. Expert knowledge on the ecophysiological drivers of the proxies, as well as statistical methods that go beyond the cross validation on modern calibration datasets, are crucial to avoid misinterpretation.

Pollen-climate relationships in time (9 ka, 6 ka, 0 ka) and space (upland vs. lowland) in eastern continental Asia

Abstract Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation–climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages ( Abies , Artemisia , Betula , Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra , Picea , Pinus , Poaceae and Quercus ) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (P ann ) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mt wa ) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen–climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of P ann compared with Mt wa for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of P ann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate–tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation–climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen–climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation–climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.