Political Alternation Research Articles

Which route to elite turnover leads to women's political empowerment in developing countries?

AbstractIt's commonly accepted that policymakers should promote women's inclusion for a more inclusive society. Drawing from the literature on democratic and non‐democratic routes of elite turnover, this study analyses the effects of elite turnover on women's political empowerment (WPE) by comparing two main routes: political alternation and internal conflict. We measure WPE by using women's political empowerment index (WPEI) from the varieties of democracy database. Based on a large sample of 128 developing countries over the period 1980–2021, the ordinary least square fixed effect and Driscoll‐Kraay fixed effects estimations show that elite turnover has a positive and statistically significant impact on WPE. Similar evidence is found when decomposing the WPEI in its sub‐indices notably women's political participation, civil society participation, and women's civil liberties sub‐indices. This result is also supported by the view that elite turnover increases education, as well as the institutional environment which therefore enables WPE. These results are robust to alternative estimation techniques including the system generalized method of moments and two‐stage least squares (GMM and IV 2SLS). Furthermore, the results remain unchanged when considering the majority of the geographical locations of our sample (it is insignificant for the MENA region) and the role of decentraliszation.

Disentangling the binomial change/inertia to the Chilean educational policy in the post-dictatorship era (1990–2022). A normative policy instrument perspective

ABSTRACT Chile is a paradigmatic case of market-oriented educational policies. This has led to a prolific research agenda aimed at understanding the trajectory and trends during the country’s dictatorial period and after the return to democracy. Generally, these studies have focused on comparing the main educational policies across different governments. In contrast, this article employs a normative policy instrument perspective to analyse the trajectory of Chilean educational policies from 1990 to 2022. The focus is on disentangling the inertia/change binomial in the implementation of educational policies, considering policy development within and between governments. Thus, the article seeks to understand when, how, and why subjects of educational policies, financial priorities, and ideological orientations change or persist over more than 30 years. The findings challenge the belief that educational policies are coherent and consistent within governments, identifying grey areas in each period. Additionally, the paper provides evidence of historical inertia in educational policies that transcends the ideologies of the governing parties. Finally, it is observed that changes in market-oriented educational policies have been more pronounced in the last decade, particularly during periods of political alternation between left- and right-wing governments.

Effects of the political configuration of local governments on subjective well-being

ABSTRACT Determining what makes a person happy is an extremely complicated task. The objective of this article is to identify the effects of the composition and orientation of governance bodies in municipalities on individual subjective well-being. We connect the data from a large Spanish welfare survey to municipal data covering the aforementioned dimensions of political configuration. Unlike previous country-level studies, we find no significant effects of political orientation when applied to municipal data. In contrast, political alternation emerges as a relevant driver of subjective well-being, especially when corrupt local governments are replaced. Furthermore, the fragmentation in the Spanish political landscape after the 2015 elections improved the level of political competition, which, in turn, exerted a positive effect on subjective well-being.

Fonca: The History of Art Funding in Mexico in the Course of Political Alternation (1989-2020)

La creación del Fondo Nacional para la Cultura y las Artes (Fonca), en 1989, no sólo constituyó la transformación de la relación entre la comunidad artística y el Estado, sino también propició, de la mano del Consejo Nacional para la Cultura y las Artes (Conaculta), una nueva forma de concebir la política cultural en México. Este artículo analiza las bases estructurales del Fondo e identifica las modificaciones administrativas y operativas que ha tenido en la alternancia política —del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) al de Acción Nacional (PAN) y el Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena)— y cómo éstas respondieron a los ideales de cada partido en el poder. Asimismo, explora el perfil neoliberal del Fondo, los motivos por los que fue posible su extinción, en 2020, y la situación actual del nuevo Sistema de Apoyos a la Creación y a Proyectos Culturales (SACPC). _______________ The creation of the Fondo Nacional para la Cultura y las Artes (Fonca) in 1989, not only represented the transformation of the relationship between the artistic community and the State, it also propitiated, together with the Consejo Nacional para la Cultura y las Artes (Conaculta), a new way of conceiving cultural policy in Mexico. This article analyzes the structural bases of Fonca and identifies the administrative and operational modifications that it had in the political alternation of PRI, PAN and Morena and how they responded to the ideals of each party. The neoliberal profile of the fund is also explored, as well as the reasons why it was extinguished in 2020 and the current situation of the new Sistema de Apoyos a la Creación y a Proyectos Culturales (SACPC).

Coups and Social Movements in the Maghreb – Between the Hunger for Power and the Quest for Democracy

"In any society, change and political renewal are more than necessary for a good and healthy governance. However, political alternation remains rare in Africa, particularly in French-speaking countries, fact that turned this region, at the beginning of the 2000s, into one of old, authoritarian or semi-democratic regimes not willing to give up the power. This article will focus on the types of actions (coups, revolutions, riots) that have challenged these regimes since the independence of the countries until now. We will analyze the context in which these actions emerged and the way in which they are more or less skillfully managed by the regimes. Keywords: authoritarian regime, society, social movements, coups, the Maghreb"

Africa's natural resource curse: Does the arrival of new heads of state break the spell?

This paper investigates how the political alternation of heads of state channels the link between natural resources and economic growth in 43 African countries from 1972 to 2014. The results show that the direct effect of natural resources on growth is negative; but the indirect effect via the channel of political alternation is rather positive. Also, a threshold analysis shows that before the 6th political alternation within a country, the overall effect of natural resources on growth is negative; beyond that, this overall effect becomes positive. We conclude that recursive changes of heads of state improve the effect of natural resources on growth and that, in the long run, the arrival of new heads of state breaks the curse in Africa.

Prefigurative leadership: The building of leadership roles in a municipal campaign

Most research on mayoral leadership focuses on how leaders view and exercise power when in office. In contrast, we study ‘prefigurative leadership’ during a municipal campaign, i.e. the way in which putative leaders construct, stage and consolidate a leadership style that foreshadows the way they will exercise power if they get elected. We rely the study of the 2020 French municipal election in Bordeaux, characterized by political alternation, succession to a strong leader, and electoral uncertainty. Candidates endorse a great variety of prefigurative leadership styles and juggle with a series of dilemmas inherent with the complexity of mayoral roles.

The Political Representation Crisis in Central Africa

Abstract The crisis of political representation in Central Africa is structural. It is intrinsically linked to the failure of democracy in the region. All states of Central Africa are states of law in which the people have a major role to play as the holders of national sovereignty. In fact, the presidential regime allows the president of the republic to concentrate all powers. At each constitutional revision, the chief executive affirms his supremacy over the nation. Such a situation combined with the absence of political alternation in Central Africa is leading to a rejection of political representation by an ever growing segment of the population.

Thirty years of illiberal democracy in Guanajuato

AbstractGuanajuato was the second state in Mexico to have political alternation, in 1991. Additionally, it was one of the first states in which there was political alternation at the municipal level, in the 1980s. Since then, alternation at that level of government is frequent. Even though this situation might lead us to think of Guanajuato as a state that has been democratically consolidated over the last 30 years, we find illiberal structures and practices that have been repeated over time and that have come to damage the democratic exercise in the state. This article describes each of the illiberal practices and structures, using data and a case study.

Institutional flexibility, political alternation, and middle-of-the-road policies

This paper presents a novel explanation for political alternation in democracies, rooted in the benefit for the median voter of keeping policy from drifting too far to either extreme. Central to this argument is the idea that policy change is gradual and that this gradualism depends on the institutional flexibility/rigidity of the country. Built on this idea, we propose a model of dynamic elections and show that institutional rigidities cause alternation. We also show that, though institutional rigidities prevent governments from implementing extreme policies, they incentivize parties to polarize as much as they can. However, more flexible institutions can foster moderation. Last, we analyze the resilience of equilibrium policies to players’ impatience and discuss extensions of our model, including office-motivated parties, the cost of alternation, alternation every two terms, and asymmetric policies.

Transformación, fragmentación y continuidad del sistema de partidos de Castilla-La Mancha (2003-2015)

La literatura académica española ha prestado poco interés por el sistema de partidos en Castilla-La Mancha, al contrario que los del resto de Comunidades Autónomas, especialmente de aquellas consideradas históricas. En el presente texto se pretende analizar la evolución del comportamiento electoral de los ciudadanos de la región para observar la transformación del sistema de partidos, desde la hegemonía electoral del PSOE (2003 y 2007) hasta la llegada de la alternancia política (2011) y la vuelta al poder de los socialistas (2015). En base a las encuestas poselectorales del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) de las elecciones autonómicas, se ha trazado algunas de las explicaciones para entender los alineamientos partidistas de la región. Los resultados indican que el éxito del PSOE está relacionado tanto con una mayor abstención diferencial de los votantes del PP así como por su voto dual en las elecciones autonómicas debido a una buena valoración del candidato socialista. Este modelo se va debilitando hasta que en 2011 la gestión de la crisis económica acaba con el PSOE en la oposición. Además, la menor fragmentación electoral en la región en las elecciones de 2015 parece estar influido, más que por cuestiones ideológicas, por el rechazo de los liderazgos de los dos candidatos de los partidos sistémicos.

Los ciclos políticos y el cambio en el sistema de partidos mexicano. Las elecciones de 2018 en retrospectiva

Since the first political alternation in the early 21st century up until just before the 2018 concurrent election, the Mexican political system had consolidated its competition structure around three dominant parties; but where only the PRI and the PAN had alternated into the Executive Power. It was precisely in the 2018 elections when a landmark occurred in the trajectory of both the political and party systems with the emergence of a new left political party (MORENA) and its entry into government. This article analyzes the 2018 general election considering the evolution of political competition from two perspectives. The first one focuses on the trajectories and changes in the structure of the party system; and the second one, on the political power conformation and its effects until the last elections. The investigation concludes that the 2018 elections are the beginning of a new political cycle that consolidates a political left project through which Mexico enters into the processes of Latin American ideological transition and they show the existence of competition cycles in the party system.

Political alternatives under European economic governance: evidence from German budget speeches (2009–2019)

ABSTRACT Since the early 2010s, budgetary policy-making in EU member states has been subject to tighter European constraints. While recent research shows the relevance of intergovernmental negotiations for setting European policy priorities, little is known about how much political alternation in government still matters for national budgetary agendas. This paper investigates this question in Germany, one of Europe’s most powerful and financially stable countries. Drawing on original data, the paper first shows how political alternation in German cabinets changes governments’ budgetary agendas. Secondly, it shows how this alternation also influences the formulation and adoption of European policy recommendations. Based on these findings, the paper argues that governments in financially stable countries can pursue alternative policy agendas, but that these need to find consensus at both the national and European level. The range of alternatives is therefore inevitably contingent upon the national institutional framework and country’s relative strength within the EU.

El comportamiento de la prensa durante el periodo de campañas 2018: El fortalecimiento de un discurso basado en la alternancia de Chilpancingo.

Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la prensa del estado de Guerrero, específicamente, en los diarios con circulación en Chilpancingo de los Bravo, ciudad capital. En donde, de manera cualitativa, a través de la técnica de análisis de contenido y con sustento de la teoría de la agenda-setting, se analiza la información difundida durante las campañas electorales 2018. Con el objetivo de conocer las características de cobertura que los diarios dieron al candidato ganador, quien llevó a una alternancia política a este municipio. Siguiendo también, a las dos principales candidatas que contendieron para el mismo cargo y haciendo una descripción crítica, de la forma en que cada uno de ellos fue presentado durante ese periodo. Además de contrastar esta información con los resultados de una encuesta aplicada para conocer las percepciones de personas que participaron activamente en las elecciones.
 Los resultados de esta investigación sugieren que los diarios con circulación en Chilpancingo, brindaron mayor relevancia noticiosa a las acciones políticas del candidato Antonio Gaspar Beltrán durante el proceso de campañas. Lo cual significa que no sólo se elaboró un discurso favorable a la figura de este candidato, sino que le favoreció en la formación de la opinión pública.

Derecha y agronegocio en Argentina y Brasil. Cambios y continuidades

Una de las modalidades de acumulación por despojo más expandidas en Sudamérica la constituye el avance del agronegocio. Esta lógica neoextractivista se ha expandido en Argentina y Brasil aun en el marco de las alternancias políticas que ambos países han experimentado en los últimos años. Sin embargo es posible advertir contrastes en relación a las políticas gubernamentales para el sector agrario según el signo político al que se aluda: gobiernos posneoliberales versus ascenso de las derechas. De allí que el objetivo del presente trabajo sea el de caracterizar a las derechas actuales en ambos países en lo que hace a la dinámica del agronegocio tendiendo a una comparación con lo que fueron las políticas implementadas durante los gobiernos progresistas. Para tal cometido acudimos a un abordaje metodológico de tipo cualitativo basado en la revisión bibliográfica especializada en el tema y el análisis de documentos.
 Entre los principales resultados se advierte que si bien existe una matriz consolidada del agronegocio en ambos países (y que como tal la misma se conserva aún en el marco de la alternancia política); esta lógica hegemónica de producción empero se profundiza con la llegada al gobierno de Macri (Argentina 2015) y Temer (Brasil 2016). Con estos gobiernos áreas estatales de apoyo a la agricultura campesina son desmanteladas al tiempo que se estimula la producción de commodities y el acaparamiento de tierras por grandes propietarios.

Democracy and electoral reforms in Mexico

In Mexico, the electoral arena has experienced substantial transformations throughout the last decades. It has changed from an overwhelming stage of domination by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to a competitive struggle between diverse political parties, where pre-electoral coalitions (PECS) and political alternation are a recurrent phenomenon. This paper seeks to explain the switch from an hegemonic party system (with authoritarian characteristics) to a democratic multi-party system, by stating that the Mexican Public Administration´s modernization, but especially the electoral reforms, have favored a phased configuration of a larger (and more competitive) number of parties and neutral electoral institutions. The argument is built upon the analysis of several documentary research, based on the 1977, 1986, 1990, 1996, and 2014 electoral reforms, federal and local electoral results, concluding with the Mexican political system´s development implications.

Alternancia política atípica en el municipio de Abasolo, Tamaulipas (1980-1983)

El entrelazamiento de las convicciones ideológicas de la juventud del Partido Socialista de los Trabajadores (PST) en México y la experiencia victoriosa del reparto agrario con la fundación de los Nuevos Centros de Población Ejidal (NCPE), en el municipio de Abasolo, Tamaulipas, México, de los campesinos agrupados en Comités Ejecutivos Particulares Agrarios (CPEA), dieron lugar a la primera alternancia municipal de la historia contemporánea de Tamaulipas. El ayuntamiento fue reconocido constitucionalmente en 1983, siendo la única victoria electoral del PST en el estado. El objetivo de este trabajo fue documentar los antecedentes sobre la historia política y social del Partido Socialista de los Trabajadores (PST) de 1980 a 1983. El procedimiento de esta investigación fue histórica, con base en la triangulación de fuentes primarias y secundarias, siguiendo la premisa de que la política es la continuación de la guerra por otros medios. La historia del rompimiento de la hegemonía del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), en Abasolo, fue recreada con archivos históricos y entrevistas orales de diferentes actores sociales de la época. El PST alcanzó el reconocimiento constitucional del ayuntamiento en 1983 por 21 días, por lo que se dio una alternancia municipal atípica. Esta alternancia, resultó ser atípica no sólo por el hecho de que un partido distinto y de reciente creación ganara las elecciones, sino por las condiciones en las que se eligió el candidato y se dio el proceso electoral municipal, así como el modo en que el presidente municipal concluyó el periodo constitucional. Dichos sucesos posibilitaron la lucha político-electoral entre el PST y el Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) en ese municipio.

Estimación del efecto de la alternancia sobre la provisión de servicios públicos locales en México

En este análisis se evalúan aspectos del sistema electoral mexicano tales como alternancia, competencia y gobiernos yuxtapuestos, mismos que impactan en la provisión de servicios públicos locales en México. Con datos de corte transversal correspondiente a 2019 municipios e información de elecciones locales, a través de la estimación econométrica, revelamos que la competencia política tiene una relación positiva con la cobertura de servicios públicos; sin embargo, el efecto difiere en los gobiernos locales de acuerdo a las probabilidades de la alternancia. Proponemos un modelo de Heckman para eliminar el sesgo de selección generado por la variable alternancia política.

Chinese Capital and Argentine Political Alternation: From Dependence to Autonomy?

The political analysis of Argentine–Chinese relations in investments and financial matters shows two faces of the China’s capital exports to Argentina. On the one hand, Argentina became the perfect example in the practice of China’s government’s desired aims stipulated in its first China’s Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean. On the other hand, China increased its structural power, integrating Argentina into its trade and financial scheme, and the South American country became dependent on Chinese capital. However, the political alternation and the change of foreign policy in Argentina in December 2015 diluted the unilateral dependence on China and transitioned to a multilateral dependence on the global capital markets, although China continued to play an important role in Argentine trade and finance. For that reason, the paper asserts some ideas about the way in which Argentina’s integration into the China’s global strategy presented not only supports but also challenges to the Argentine democracy, while exploring the impact of the second “Policy Paper”.

THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF THE SPANISH DEPENDENCY SYSTEM OF DEDUCTIBLE COMPLEMENTS OF ANALOGUE NATURE AND PURPOSE

Social Security fulfils the general principles of protection of the needy through social assistance and social security, specific for the safeguard of workers. In Italy, according to the principle of territoriality of the insurance obligation, the non community worker is subject to the country's social security and welfare legislation. On 7 December 1984 an administrative agreement is signed in Tunis for the application of the convention on social security, between the Italian Republic and the Tunisian Republic, with the possibility for the Tunisian citizen to work in Italy, while remaining under the responsibility of the legislation on social security in your country of origin. Because of the political alternation of the Italian Governments, more restrictive guidelines have been reached, with the introduction of the limitation to equating to Italians only non-EU immigrants holding EC residence permits as long-staying guests, exceeding even the provisions of bilateral agreements including the Italy - Tunisian one. This has subordinated the provision of certain social security benefits, discriminating against Tunisian citizens and limiting the enjoyment of the fundamental rights recognized to Italian citizens.