Polish Pension Funds Research Articles

Governance through exit: Pension fund reform impact on real earnings management of portfolio companies

Theoretical models predict that the threat of outside blockholder exit can mitigate agency problems and force managers to undertake actions that would maximize firm value in the long run. We examine whether the institutional blockholder exit threat curbs managerial misbehavior and short-termism reflected in real earnings management. Our study exploits a natural experiment—the Polish pension fund reform of 2013 that encouraged pension funds to trade more actively and imposed a real threat of exit on their portfolio companies. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we provide evidence that the reform significantly decreased the level of real earnings management in “treated” companies, that is, companies with open-ended pension funds (OFEs) playing the role of blockholders. The effect was more significant for firms in a multiple blockholder setting, firms under common ownership, and firms with higher insider’s stakes. Moreover, we confirmed that treated companies that decreased real earnings management in the post-reform period experienced the increased long-term operating performance.

Pension funds and IPO pricing. Evidence from a quasi-experiment

We exploit a quasi-experiment arising from the government-forced changes to the assets under management and investment policy of the Polish pension funds. We test whether this new regulation and its resultant demand shock on the investors' side, leads to changes in the IPO pricing and the subsequent stock's performance. We report material and a statistically significant decrease in the IPO proceeds (IPO size) in the post-treatment period equal to over 107 million PLN (34 million USD). We find no empirical evidence that the treatment had a significant effect on the first-day IPO underpricing or on the long-term underperformance. We conclude that the demand shock resulting from the pension system reform that primarily aimed at solving fiscal problems effectively eliminated the so-called ‘pension premium’ of higher IPO valuations. Thus, it indirectly impaired companies' power of raising money in the public stock market. Furthermore, we report a decrease in the average first-day IPO returns among big issuers that is consistent with the book building literature.

Do they beat the market in the new regulatory environment – the case of Polish pension funds

In this study, we attempt to verify if the funds constituting the (quasi)mandatory capital pillar of the Polish pension system outperformed the market in the 2014–2016 period. This research objective was raised a few times in the past, but nowadays it gains a new context. In our research the sample starts at the moment when a set of regulations was implemented to facilitate competition among funds, which should further translate into improved portfolio results. Analysing the monthly data, we employ the Performance Change Measurement approach of Grinblatt and Titman (1993) to address the question of the investment outcomes. Despite the fact that the relatively short period is verified, we do not find any convincing proof of the superior portfolio performance under the new regulatory framework. Consequently, we argue that further changes should be oriented toward fund fee reduction rather than motivating managers to greater analytical effort.

IPO Mispricing. Evidence from Aftermarket Performance Tests and a Natural Experiment in Poland.

We exploit a quasi-experiment arising from the government-forced changes to the assets under management and investment policy of the Polish pension funds. We test whether this new regulation and its resultant demand shock on the investors’ side, leads to changes in the IPO pricing and the subsequent stock’s performance. We report material and a statistically significant decrease in the IPO proceeds (IPO size) in the post-treatment period equal to over 107 million PLN (34 million USD). We find no empirical evidence that the treatment had a significant effect on the first-day IPO underpricing or on the long-term underperformance. We conclude that the demand shock resulting from the pension system reform that primarily aimed at solving fiscal problems effectively eliminated the so-called ‘pension premium’ of higher IPO valuations. Thus, it indirectly impaired companies’ power of raising money in the public stock market. Furthermore, we report a decrease in the average first-day IPO returns among big issuers that is consistent with the book building literature.

Pension Funds' Performance in Strongly Regulated Industries in Central Europe: Evidence from Poland and Hungary

This paper presents an analysis of pension funds' performance in Poland and Hungary, two Central European countries characterized by strong regulation of their private pension fund industries. Thus, the paper extends the literature, which has so far mostly focused on the performance of pension fund industries facing no or limited regulation. We find that the performance of pension funds in the two studied countries differs. While we do not find convincing evidence of outperformance by Polish pension funds, we find strong evidence of underperformance by Hungarian pension funds. The results are robust to time variation. The paper considers possible explanations for these findings. The results of the paper should be of interest to policymakers seeking to achieve optimal performance of pension systems and to academics researching the area of pension funds.

Regulatory induced herding? Evidence from Polish pension funds

The paper documents herding among pension fund managers in Poland. Herding occurs despite the lack of an economically significant link between fund performance and the flow of new capital or members. To explain this phenomenon, the paper outlines a model that attributes herding to performance incentive contracts imposed by the authorities in Poland. The model shows that penalties for underperformance imposed by the regulator are likely to cause fund managers to follow each other’s portfolio choices and pursue similar investment strategies. Since herding causes similar portfolio allocations by all funds, the results call for a reduction in the number of funds, or a review of the relative performance incentive system and current constraints on portfolio allocation. The latter could also help reduce the dominance of government bonds in investment portfolios of pension funds.

Polish Pension Funds Investment - is There A Place For Real Property in A Portfolio?

Polish Pension Funds Investment - is There A Place For Real Property in A Portfolio?The pension fund investments should be characterised by a long term, low risk and profitability, which implicates the necessity of portfolio diversification. In general, pension funds having regular long-term contributions should develop the long-term policy and its effects would be responsible for the economic position of their future beneficiaries. The ways of capital allocation are also critical in terms of the entire economy, as a constant flow of financial resources provided by pension funds stimulates the activity of its recipients. The typical assets in a pension fund's portfolio in the developed economy are stocks, bonds and real property owing to low (negative) correlation between these assets and their diversified potential. The legal investment limits imposed on the Polish pension funds exclude direct investment in real property, which is responsible - in the authors' opinion - for the lower level of diversification and hinders the risk reduction. The authors analyze the Polish pension fund portfolios focusing on risk and return levels. The aim of the study is to find the answer to the important question about the results of hypothetically added real property to the portfolios of pension funds.

Pension Funds' Performance in Strongly Regulated Industries in Central Europe: Evidence from Poland and Hungary

This paper presents an analysis of pension funds' performance in Poland and Hungary, two Central European countries characterized by strong regulation of their private pension fund industries. Thus, the paper extends the literature which has so far mostly focused on performance of pension fund industries facing no or limited regulation. We find that the performance of pension funds in the two studied countries differs. While we do not find convincing evidence of outperformance by Polish pension funds, we find strong evidence of underperformance by Hungarian pension funds. The results are robust to time-variation. The paper considers possible explanations behind these findings. The results of the paper should be of interest for policy-makers seeking to achieve optimal performance of the pension systems and academics in the research area of pension funds.

Process of Systemic Changes in the Polish Pension Funds Market

Process of Systemic Changes in the Polish Pension Funds Market

Is locking domestic funds into the local market beneficial? Evidence from the Polish pension reforms

This paper is concerned with the effect of enforced home bias on the development of emerging stock markets. It provides a detailed study of the impact on the Warsaw Stock Exchange of the Polish pension fund reforms and the associated restrictions on international investment. The time-path of market development for the Warsaw Stock Exchange is compared with a benchmark sample consisting of the other seven post-communist countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that benefits arising from the pension funds' increased investment in the home market are short-lived. In the long run, the relative performance of the Polish market returned to pre-1999 levels or worse, suggesting that enforced home bias on emerging markets may be detrimental, rather than beneficial, to the long-run development of the market.

Home Bias and Stock Market Development: The Polish Experience

Pension reform has become a major policy issue for both developed and developing countries in recent years. In developing countries the impact of these reforms on the development of their financial markets is critical. However, the initial expectations that pension reforms in developing countries would bring broad benefits and result in faster market development have not materialized. A particular problem has been that governments often impose restrictions on the freedom of pension funds' investment decisions. In particular, they have a tendency to enforce home bias in investment behaviour (e.g., as is the case in Russia and Poland). This paper provides a non-technical introduction to home bias and its role in stock market development, and uses the Polish experience as a case study. It discusses the main arguments for portfolio diversification, the primary side effects that emerge from locking funds into underdeveloped equity markets, and highlights the problems the Polish pension funds face as a result of the home bias policy of the Polish authorities. The findings support the view that enforced home bias has a negative impact on the local stock market development, on the performance of pension reform.

Institutional trading and stock return autocorrelation: Empirical evidence on Polish pension fund investors' behavior

In this paper, we extend the empirical finance literature on the influence of institutional traders by investigating the impact of Polish pension funds trading on individual stock return autocorrelation. The pension reform in 1999 and the associated increase in institutional traders' investment activities provide a unique opportunity to receive additional insight into the behavior of institutional investors in an emerging capital market. Performing a variant of the event study methodology we find only very little empirical evidence supporting existing theories predicting positive return autocorrelation due to the influence of institutional traders' investment activities. Rather, our cross-sectional analysis reveals a negative relationship between the trading of pension funds and autocorrelation in returns of individual stocks.

Interfund linkage analysis: the case of the polish pension fund sector

Although fund activities whose target is to attract the members of rivals would seem to be very important for a proper evaluation of pension fund achievements, this topic has not been looked at by researchers. This paper presents an approach to assess the interfund effects of savings transfers based upon Polish tables of transfers published by the KNUiFE over the period from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2004. Some useful indicators are suggested. By means of these indicators a taxonomy of pension funds operating in Poland was carried out. We also find which transfers of savings are the most important, i.e. which changes in the relative level of such transfers cause the largest perturbations in the whole pension fund sector.

Is Locking Domestic Funds into the Local Market Beneficial? Evidence from the Polish Pension Reforms

This paper is concerned with the effect of enforced home bias on the development of emerging stock markets. It provides a detailed study of the impact on the Warsaw Stock Exchange of the Polish pension fund reforms and the associated restrictions on international investment. The time path of market development for the Warsaw Stock Exchange is compared with a benchmark sample consisting of the other seven post-communist countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that benefits arising from the pension funds' increased investment in the home market are short-lived. In the long run, the relative performance of the Polish market returned to pre-1999 levels or worse, suggesting that enforced home bias on emerging markets may be detrimental, rather than beneficial, to the long-run development of the market.

Institutional Traders’ Behavior in an Emerging Stock Market: Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors

Abstract: In this paper, we contribute to the literature on institutional herding and feedback trading by analysing the investment behavior of pension funds on the Polish stock market. Pension funds entered into the stock market due to the national pension system reform in 1999, providing a unique opportunity to receive deeper insight into the behavior of institutional investors in an emerging capital market. Our results show that Polish pension fund investors are to a greater extent involved in herd‐like behavior and pursue feedback trading strategies more often than their counterparts in mature markets. This finding is primarily attributed to a stringent investment regulation and high market concentration. We do not detect, however, that trading by the pension funds exerts significant influence on the future stock prices.

Institutional Traders' Behavior in an Emerging Stock Market:
 Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors

Institutional Traders' Behavior in an Emerging Stock Market:
 Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors