Policy Targets Research Articles

Radiative forcing climate footprints in the agricultural sector: Comparison of models from the IPCC 5th and 6th Assessment Reports

To achieve the goal in the Paris Agreement of limiting mean global temperature rise to 1.5 ​°C, total anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) should be reduced from current 2.7 to around 1.9 ​W ​m−2. A newly developed RF-based climate footprint (RFCF) indicator, which quantifies the additional contribution to RF associated with current and historical emissions, can support transparent alignment with climate stabilization targets by assessing the profile of RF over time. Nevertheless, RFCF applications to date have been based on parameters and equations from IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR). Considering the latest updates in the IPCC 6th AR, we applied the RFCF approach for the first time in a case study involving the Australian agricultural sector. We compared the RF, RFCF and annual changes in RFCF of CH4, N2O and CO2 using both models. All the results of RF as well as RFCF calculated using the latest model were slightly lower than those obtained using the former model. The agricultural sector's contribution to RF had plateaued in recent years and is projected to reach the point of net zero increase in 2022 (IPCC 6th AR model) or 2023 (IPCC 5th AR model). Considering the latest updates in emission lifetime, radiative efficiency and indirect effects based on the background concentration (1750–2019), the assessments based on IPCC 6th AR model provide more reliable results. However, a dynamic model is required to reflect the additional RF for the pulse emission based on the relevant climate background in the same year. The RF-based footprint approach can support national greenhouse gas emission reduction policy targets, especially for sectors with substantial biogenic methane emissions.

국제개발협력 목표에 대한 국민인식과 영향요인 분석

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the perception of the Korean and American people on international development cooperation, which has different policy goals, means, and policy targets with domestic policies.
 Originality: In international relations, a new approach is needed according to the diversification of actors such as the state-market-civil society. It is necessary to pay attention to the perception or values of ordinary citizens, which have been relatively neglected in the existing international relations theories.
 Methodology: This study conducted a survey of 1,500 people in each country to find out the perception of Korean and American people on ODA. It asked which of the three aid goals, realism, idealism, and global communitarianism, was the most desirable goal. First, the difference in perception between the people of the two countries was analyzed through a chi-square test. Second, a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to find out the factors influencing public perception of ODA goals.
 Result: First, it was found that conservatives are more likely to pursue realistic goals, and progressives are more likely to pursue global communitarianism. Second, people who are more interested in domestic policy are more likely to see that their country's economic and social interests should be pursued for ODA goals. Third, when the household's economic level did not deteriorate due to COVID-19, the probability of considering the socio-economic development of the recipient country as a more important goal increased. Fourth, it can be interpreted that individuallevel variables have a greater impact in emerging donor countries, while policies and politics variables have a more impact on traditional donor countries.
 Conclusion and Implication: It is necessary to engage people in international development cooperation as important actors to improve the quality of international development cooperation of South Korea, as a global pivotal country.

Patterns of learning. Coping with school failure and its relevance to educational practices in adulthood

Participation in adult learning is unequally distributed in terms of sociodemographic characteristics. One of the targets of public policy is to raise and even the level of participation among different social groups. In the article we concentrate on adults already taking part in non-formal educational activities, however, their attitudes, ways of participation and benefits from education differ significantly. The analysis aims to explore and link the experiences of compulsory education with those of adult education. School failures and ways of coping with them seem to be of particular importance. We also analyse the context, especially in terms of family capital and parenting styles. We identified two distinct patterns concerning lifelong learning – cumulative advantage and cumulative disadvantage, and present a few outliers. We argue that attitudes toward adult education and potential gains are determined by previous educational experiences within the school system.

A TWO-STEP CLUSTER FOR CLASSIFYING PROVINCES IN INDONESIA BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY

The main objective of this study was to conduct a cluster analysis of the environmental health index in Indonesia for all the provinces. Clustering the environmental health index was important to reveal regional disparities, target and intervention policies, monitor progress over time, and allocate resources more effectively for improved environmental health outcomes. In this study, a sample of 34 units was utilized, encompassing all provinces in Indonesia. The environmental health index was clustered based on five indicators, namely Water Quality Index, Air Quality Index, Soil Quality Index, Marine Quality Index, and Land Cover Quality Index. This research used the two-stage clustering method, which was unique in combining both hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering methods to produce a more accurate and reliable solution. Four clusters were determined to group provinces in Indonesia based on the environmental health index. The analysis found that the quality of clustering was in the fair but close to good category. The clustering results showed that 32% of the provinces were in cluster 4 and 26.5% of the provinces were in cluster 1. Then, 23.5% and 17.6% of the provinces were in clusters 2 and 3, respectively. In addition, two indicators were found to be the most predictive of the overall clustering solution, namely the Soil Quality Index and the Land Cover Quality Index. The results also implied that provinces in cluster 3 had the lowest environmental quality so they must improve it by looking at provinces in cluster 4, which was the group with the best environmental quality index.

Implementation of tourism levy policy at Minanga beach in North Gorontalo district

The research objectives are: · To know and describe the implementation of retribution policy of Minanga beach tourism in North Gorontalo Regency, · To find out and describe the determinants of the success of the implementation of Minanga beach retribution policy in North Gorontalo Regency. Data collection techniques were observation, interview, and documentation which were then analyzed using qualitative analysis based on the concept of Miles and Huberman. The result of the research shows that: · Implementation of retribution policy for Minanga beach tourism in North Gorontalo Regency has been carried out starting from the stages of planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation, but still experiencing obstacles such as cooperation agreements that are considered to provide less value/benefit of economic improvement for the community, often asymmetric information between the management of retribution policy at the village level and at the regional level, lack of government attention in improving the availability of infrastructure, and still lack of supervision conducted by the Regional Government. · Factors determining the success of the implementation of the Minanga beach retribution policy in North Gorontalo Regency are appropriate and implemented starting from policy standards and objectives, factors of policy standards and objectives, resources, inter-organizational communication and strengthening activities, organizational characteristics of implementing agents, and factors of socio-economic and political conditions. However, there are still some obstacles in the retribution policy targets that are not yet visible, resource factors including facilities and infrastructure, as well as low budget capabilities and poor levels of cross-sector communication.

Механизм формирования гражданской идентичности молодежи на территориях новых субъектов Российской Федерации

The article reveals the problem of the formation of the civic identity of young people living in the territories of the new subjects of the Russian Federation. Its relevance is determined by the requirements of regulatory documents, the targets of the state youth policy, the need for adaptation and integration of this category of youth into the Russian socio-cultural and economic space. The article presents the conceptual foundations of the study, including a number of theoretical ideas and provisions, as well as variable, axiological and ethno-cultural approaches that determine the strategic vectors for the formation of the civic identity of young people. The pedagogical model and the mechanism for designing individual-group trajectories of the formation of the civic identity of young people in the territories of the new subjects of the Russian Federation in the context of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values ​​are revealed. The developed pedagogical model is represented by the unity of the target, content, procedural and result-evaluative blocks. The sequence of formation of the civic identity of young people is revealed: a) emotional-figurative perception; b) value understanding and appropriation; c) responsible civic behavior. The mechanism of designing individual-group trajectories of the formation of the civic identity of young people is substantiated, including the stages of designing, spatial-target landmarks and the value-semantic "cores" of content corresponding to them. The features of each of the stages are considered: diagnostic, prognostic-target, content-constructive, technological and reflective-evaluative. The results of the study are of practical value for teachers and specialists in working with youth, curators of youth public associations.

Selective Favoritism and Confirmed «Sovietiness» among Kalmyk Special Settlers within the Qazaq SSR

During World War II, Stalin’s Soviet regime implemented a repressive policy targeting entire nationalities through forced resettlement. As one of these ‘punished peoples,’ the Kalmyks were deported to the eastern parts of the USSR in late 1943, primarily encompassing Siberian oblast and krays, along with one oblast in the Qazaq SSR – Qyzyl-Orda. These regions were designated as their places of exile, subjecting deportees to the special settlement system for the subsequent thirteen years. While other oblasts in the Qazaq SSR were not officially designated for their deportation, Kalmyk special settlers were dispersed across Alma-Ata oblast, constituting the second-largest Kalmyk contingent within the republic, following Qyzyl-Orda. This study delves into Kalmyk special settlers within Alma-Ata oblast of the Qazaq SSR from 1944 to 1953 and posits that it stood out as a self-formed group comprising interconnected individuals. This implies that Kalmyk contingent in the oblast constituted a group of deportees who could choose their preferred location for special settlements and purposefully selected the oblast among places in the USSR. In doing so, they set themselves apart from the usual practice where the system forms contingents forcibly. Moreover, the study argues that the claimed exceptionalism within the regime is supported by the presence of the selective release from the system of certain Kalmyk special settlers, conducted legally. In turn, the existence of the combination of such exclusive treatments from the regime highlights dual standards in the interpretation and execution of officially announced policies toward groups of special settlers categorized as ‘exiled in perpetuity.’ Furthermore, the examination of each case of distinct treatments within this contingent in the oblast aims to illustrate the correlation between attained privileges and facts of confirmed ‘Sovietiness.’

Analysis of the Impact of Innovative Economic Conditions on the Flow of Workers in the Labour Markets of the European Union Countries

The main purpose of the work is to present the results of empirical research on the impact of innovation levels in the economy on the structure of labour market flows. The analysis of the directions and scale of these flows makes it possible to discover important characteristics of the labour market and thus makes it possible to better construct and target policies to reduce unemployment or activate economically inactive people. The study uses data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and experimental job‑to‑job statistics for the European Union (EU) countries, covering the 2011–2019 period. We conducted research separately for selected groups of economies classified by their level of innovation, i.e. Innovation Leaders, Strong Innovators, Moderate Innovators, and Emerging Innovators. The results demonstrate that the structure of flows in a labour market depends on the innovation level of the respective economy. The main contribution of the study is that it identifies employee flow patterns in the labour markets of individual EU countries from the perspective of the innovation levels of their respective economies. Panel error correction models (ECM) and panel causality tests were used. In countries that are Innovation Leaders, an increase in participation in lifelong learning leads to a parallel increase in employee flow (EE) and job‑to‑job employee turnover. In countries that are Emerging Innovators, increasing participation in lifelong learning increases turnover, mainly among young people (15–24 age group).

Integrating Estimation of Inflation Threshold and Nowcasting Regional Economic Growth Using Classical, Machine Learning, and Ensemble Method

In line with the global economic recovery, Indonesia's post-pandemic economic recovery is experiencing major challenge caused by uncertainty due to increasing inflationary pressure. Efforts to reduce inflationary fluctuations were carried out by the government in order to maintain optimal economic growth under the inflation targeting policy framework. Hence it is necessary to inspect the inflation threshold for economic growth in determining the inflation target. This study attempts to integrate inflation threshold estimation and nowcasting modelling of regional economic growth as an early warning system for achieving the government's economic growth target by utilizing several classical, machine learning, and ensemble models. Threshold estimation for the National level and East Java is applied to provincial groups obtained from clustering time series with dynamic time wrapping (DTW), author's justification, and the west-east region. In addition, estimates were also carried out in the period before Covid-19 as well as the entire period and the addition of predictor variables to test the sensitivity of the inflation threshold estimate. The results show that there was a non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth with an inverted U shape. There are differences in the inflation threshold range due to provincial groupings, addition of control variables, both for the National level and for East Java. Evaluation of the inflation level in East Java and eight cities shows that in several periods, East Java inflation has exceeded Bank Indonesia's ITF target. Taking into account the estimated threshold range, it is recommended to set a more flexible inflation target at the regional economic level. Finally, the results of nowcasting with several specifications, such as the use of machine learning models and weighted ensemble models based on accuracy, as well as out-sample predictions with one-step ahead can improve the accuracy and consistency of the model for both short-term and long-term.

Dynamic evolution of policy mix in response to COVID-19: Practice from China.

COVID-19 is a global pandemic. In response to this unprecedented crisis, Chinese government formulated a series of policies. This research is dedicated to exploring the dynamic evolution of China's policy mix in response to COVID-19 in different crisis response stages from a network perspective. First, a three-dimensional analysis framework of "policy subject-policy target-policy instrument" was developed. Then, based on the data sets collected by textual analysis, the dynamic evolution of policy subject, policy target, policy instrument in China's policy mix in response to COVID-19 was discussed by using the method of SNA. This study concluded that the core policy subject, policy instrument, and policy target of China's response to COVID-19 changed with time. National Health Commission (NHC), Ministry of Finance (MOF), Ministry of Transport (MOT) and Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MHRSS) have important influences in the network of policy subjects. Other subjects are more at the edge of the network, and there are few joint issuances among policy subjects. The study also found that the core policy target was adjusted over time, with phased dynamic characteristics. At the initial stage of China's response to COVID-19, "reduce infection and mortality" and "steadily carry out economic and social work" were the core policy targets. With the COVID-19 under control, "enterprise development and work resumption" becomes a new core policy target. In addition, this study also revealed the dynamic evolution and unbalanced use of China's policy instruments in response to COVID-19 in different stages. The combination of policy instruments is mainly composed of "mandatory administration instruments" and "economic incentive instruments", and supplemented by "health promotion instruments" and "voluntary plan instruments". These findings may enrich the literature on COVID-19 policy to help researchers understand the dynamics of policy from a network perspective. Moreover, these findings may provide several valuable implications for policymakers and other countries to formulate more effective policies for epidemic response.

Overview Terhadap Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Implementasi Pengembangan Pariwisata Di Kepulauan Anambas

This research aims to analyze the factors that influence the implementation of tourism development in the Anambas Islands to increase the number of tourist visits. The research method is descriptive qualitative, primary data sources are interviews and observations. Secondary resources are reviews of relevant literature and documentation from the Anambas Cultural Tourism Office. The data analysis technique is Triangulation. Factors influencing implementation can be seen from the theory developed by Van Metter and Van Horn, namely policy standards and targets, resources, communication, characteristics of implementing agents, and social, political, and economic conditions. The regulations governing Anambas Islands tourism are included in the National Tourism Destination (DPN) development plan through the 2010-2025 National Tourism Development Master Plan (RIPPARNAS), which is directed at tourism development which is difficult to achieve policy program targets, this is because in the regulations There are no Standard Operating Procedures available in tourism development itself, so that SOPs in regulations become one of the influential obstacles. Then, synergy between the government and the community is needed in implementing the tourism development of the Anambas Islands.

Carbon dioxide removal and mitigation deterrence in EU climate policy: Towards a research approach

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are rapidly evolving from renderings in climate models towards an explicit and essential component of climate policy-making. This has raised concerns that the expectations of future large-scale availability of CDR technologies may deter mitigation, i.e., delay or substitute emission reduction efforts. Here, we develop a conceptual approach to systematically study such mitigation deterrence effects in climate policy-making processes. The approach integrates literature on sociotechnical imaginaries and the cultural political economy of mitigation deterrence with historical-materialist policy analysis. It follows within-case process tracing to uncover whether and how expectations of CDR technologies either weaken ‘conventional’ mitigation targets in policy formulation or encourage policy designs which treat ‘conventional’ mitigation and CDR as equivalent. Using critical instances of contestation in the policy process, this approach also allows us to identify nascent constellations of actors and interests as well as emerging fault lines related to CDR technologies. Empirically, the paper focusses on the EU Sustainable Carbon Cycles Strategy and the current negotiations over an EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework. We show that even though it is too early to pin-point clear-cut instances of mitigation deterrence related to CDR technologies in EU climate policy-making, critical opportunities to prevent such effects have already been missed in both climate target formulation and policy design.

The joint determination of morbidity and vaccination in the spatiotemporal epidemiology of COVID-19

This paper examines the mutual dependence between COVID-19 morbidity and vaccination rollout. A theory of endogenous immunization is proposed in which the decision to become vaccinated varies directly with the risks of contagion, and the public self-selects into self-protection. Hence, COVID-19 morbidity varies inversely with vaccination rollout, and vaccination rollout varies directly with COVID-19 morbidity. The paper leverages the natural sequencing between morbidity and immunization to identify the causal order in the dynamics of this relationship. A modified SIR model is estimated using spatial econometric methods for weekly panel data for Israel at a high level of spatial granularity. Connectivity between spatial units is measured using physical proximity and a unique mobility-based measure. Spatiotemporal models for morbidity and vaccination rollout show that not only does morbidity vary inversely with vaccination rollout, vaccination rollout varies directly with morbidity. The utility of the model for public health policy targeting, is highlighted.

Proximal Reinforcement Learning: Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes

In applications of offline reinforcement learning to observational data, such as in healthcare or education, a general concern is that observed actions might be affected by unobserved factors, inducing confounding and biasing estimates derived assuming a perfect Markov decision process (MDP) model. In “Proximal Reinforcement Learning: Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes,” A. Bennett and N. Kallus tackle this by considering off-policy evaluation in a partially observed MDP (POMDP). Specifically, they consider estimating the value of a given target policy in an unknown POMDP, given observations of trajectories generated by a different and unknown policy, which may depend on the unobserved states. They consider both when the target policy value can be identified the observed data and, given identification, how best to estimate it. Both these problems are addressed by extending the framework of proximal causal inference to POMDP settings, using sequences of so-called bridge functions. This results in a novel framework for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs that they term proximal reinforcement learning, which they validate in various empirical settings.

Religious Moderation: Identity Politics, Policy, and Social Change in Islamic Religious Colleges

<p>Religious moderation is politically included in public policies that are integrated into the 2020-2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional, RPJMN). Ministry of Religion as the leading sector for mainstreaming religious moderation in its environment has the responsibility to translate religious moderation from the narrative of religious moderation to the real action in its institutional units. This research is qualitative research conducted at State Islamic University (Universitas Islam Negeri, UIN) Walisongo Semarang which seriously promotes religious moderation in the institution. The results of this study are the problem of strengthening identity politics as one of the main causes of religious extremism and social change that exist, one of the efforts to minimize social turmoil in UIN Walisongo is by instilling the values of religious moderation through the tri dharma of university, namely teaching, research, and community service. The aspect of locality is the main capital in implementing religious moderation at UIN Walisongo. Indigenous religiosity combines religion and locality with a theo-anthropocentric approach, exploring cultural values in order to strengthen religion in the implementation aspect. The impact of the implementation of the data religious moderation policy is seen from the realm of ideality of policy content in the religious moderation policy, which can be seen from the integration of relations or a harmonious relationship between individual elements and social elements in human interaction which is the main target in the religious moderation policy promoted by the Ministry of Religion.</p>

Tackling policy leakage and targeting hotspots could be key to addressing the ‘Wicked’ challenge of nutrient pollution from corn production in the U.S.

Reducing nutrient loss from agriculture to improve water quality requires a combination of management practices. However, it has been unclear what pattern of mitigation is likely to emerge from different policies, individually and combined, and the consequences for local and national land use and farm returns. We address this research gap by constructing an integrated multi-scale framework for evaluating alternative nitrogen loss management policies for corn production in the US. This approach combines site- and practice-specific agro-ecosystem processes with a grid-resolving economic model to identify locations that can be prioritized to increase the economic efficiency of the policies. We find that regional measures, albeit effective in reducing local nitrogen loss, can displace corn production to the area where nitrogen fertilizer productivity is low and nutrient loss rate is high, thereby offsetting the overall effectiveness of the nutrient management strategy. This spatial spillover effect can be suppressed by implementing the partial measures in tandem with nationwide policies. Wetland restoration combined with split fertilizer application, along with a nitrogen loss tax could reduce nitrate nitrogen loss to the Mississippi River by 30% while only increasing corn prices by less than 2%.

Digitalising analogue policy targets! ‘Digital capabilities’ of older persons and policy digitalisation of social safety net programs in a developing country context

The optimization of the human-centeredness of technological innovations – policy digitalization - has exceedingly proliferated in most policy sectors. Yet, a few studies exist on the implications of digital policy tools in realizing social protection policies for older people, particularly in Africa. This paper discusses this issue. It examines data on the ‘digital capabilities’ of older persons and how digital technologies impact their usage and access to social safety net programs in Kenya, where digital policy tools like mHealth and e-Payment platforms are used to realize them. The data collection involved interviews with 81 respondents between 65-90 years of age (individuals targeted by social safety net programs and Social Protection officers). Findings show a need for more robust and policy target-sensitive efforts and budget allocation to overcome policy digitalization challenges, especially those arising from structural governance inequalities or older people’s capability deficits that underpin digital transformation pathways for different policy targets. Most older people in rural areas have negative attitudes and low user digital capabilities toward digital services. This is partly due to a range of challenges from infrastructural deficiencies, low access to internet resources to inadequate policy communication around digital tools. However, higher digital capabilities of policy targets and positive societal attitudes toward digital platforms could improve effective ‘public policy digitalization’ with more targeted investments and user-sensitive designs in place.

Drought-impacted communities in social-ecological systems: Exploration of different system states in Northeast Brazil

This study applies ‘Social-Ecological Systems (SES)’ concepts with the aim of analysing why and how events happening across spatial, jurisdictional, and temporal scales influence droughts and their impacts in rural communities. To trace the evolution of droughts and their impacts on the livelihood system, we conducted a drought diagnosis in the rural community of Riacho da Cruz in the Banabuiú basin in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil. We analysed how the livelihood of this community reacted differently to drought events and why the impacts of previous drought events either contributed to the adaptation of the livelihood system or its collapse. SES theory helped us posit that it is the collective capacity of stakeholders (nested across the levels of the different spatial, temporal and decisional scales of drought management) to manage their resilience to drought, that determines whether the considered system adapts, collapses or shifts into a new stable state, in response to drought. Monitoring these factors that influence drought resilience could enable the development of drought(-impact) indices that account for the spatial-temporal complexities of drought. Such results can aid in improving the targeting of policies toward drought-affected communities and ensuring they receive the necessary resources. Plain language summaryDrought and drought impacts are difficult to monitor. One reason is that they affect many different areas and groups of people. It is complicated to understand all the ways in which droughts can worsen or how they impact different groups, and why these effects can change over time and in different locations. This is what we investigate in this study using the Social-Ecological Systems (SES) theory. SES theory can help us understand how different parts of society and the environment interact and change over time. This theory can help us understand why certain events happen and how past events can still have an impact on current events. We applied SES theory to the drought-affected rural community of Riacho da Cruz in Northeast Brazil to understand why and how different drought events affected the community’s livelihood. Based on our findings, we developed a framework that can help identify some causes of drought impacts on the community’s livelihood. We believe that this framework can also be applied to identify and understand the causes of drought impacts in different sectors and locations. Building on the case of the community of Riacho da Cruz, we discuss how the SES theory can help monitor drought more accurately.

On the Impact of Green Credit Policy on the Transformation and Upgrading of Heavy Polluting Enterprises in China

It is of great significance for China to understand how to use financial policies to promote the achievement of the dual carbon goal. This project will be carried out under the background of double carbon. The goal is to explore the impact of China's green credit policy on the transformation and upgrading of heavily polluting enterprises. This study will use the data of China's listed heavily polluting enterprises from 2008 to 2015, and use the "Green Credit Guidelines" issued in 2012 as the target policy, and use the difference-in-differences (DID) method to evaluate the policy effect. Based on the research conclusions, effective policy recommendations are proposed to provide some reference for the revision of China's green credit policy in the future.

Testing the Drivers of Corporate Environmentalism in Vietnam

What motivates private firms’ willingness to invest in green technologies and environmentally friendly operations? Some emphasize enhanced government regulation and enforcement, while others point to the greater potential of societal pressure. In this study, we use a survey experiment with more than 10,000 firms in Vietnam to test which type of stakeholder pressure has the strongest impact on domestic and foreign business leaders’ intention to invest in green operations. We find that the effectiveness of stakeholder pressure is conditioned by the firms’ target markets. Foreign investors are more susceptible than domestic firms to intensive regulatory pressure. Accounting for export orientation, however, we find that the most amenable policy targets for regulatory pressure are foreign firms aiming to sell in the Vietnamese domestic market.