Effective Policy Research Articles

Research on the effect of multiple credit ratings from the perspective of financial regulatory systems in Chinese bond market

This paper, starting from the effects of financial regulatory policies, considers the interaction between Chengxin_Moody and Lianhe_Fitch with the dual rating system and the multi-rating system, constructs a new ordered Logit model, and attempts to explore the impact of the Notice, the dual rating system and the multiple rating system on the probability of Chinese corporate bond defaults, rating upgrades, rating downgrades, and the magnitude of credit rating migrations. This study compares the effectiveness of different rating regulatory systems. Using nine thousand two hundred and sixty-two data of Chinese corporate bonds as the research samples. Empirical analysis and robustness test reveal the following findings: (1) The issuance of the Notice has a significant positive effect on the implementation of both the dual rating system and the multiple rating system, with a greater impact on the implementation of the multiple rating system; (2) The issuance of the Notice, along with the dual rating system and the multiple rating system, can all reduce the probability of corporate bond defaults, with the multiple rating system showing the best preventive effect against corporate bond defaults; (3) The dual rating system is more effective in promoting rating agencies to adjust rating behaviors, accurately correcting corporate bond ratings and effectively alleviating the issue of rating inflation. Competition among rating agencies intensifies rating shopping; (4) Under the dual rating system, rating agencies are more likely to expand the magnitude of credit rating upgrades and downgrades, enhancing the differentiation between high-quality corporate bonds and junk corporate bonds; (5) The selection of rating information from Chengxin_Moody and Lianhe_Fitch can appropriately adjust the degree of flexibility or tightening in response to rating regulatory systems. Chengxin_Moody demonstrates a more sensitive reaction compared to Lianhe_Fitch regarding the rating regulatory systems. This study provides valuable references for the formulation and evaluation of the effectiveness of Chinese corporate bond rating regulatory policies.

Econometrics of Climate Change Research

The econometrics of climate change explores the intricate interplay between economic activity and climate dynamics, offering empirical insights into the causes, impacts, and mitigation of global climate change. This research applies advanced econometric techniques to quantify the economic consequences of environmental changes and evaluate the effectiveness of climate policies. By leveraging panel data models, time-series analysis, and causal inference methods, this study investigates critical topics such as the economic costs of extreme weather events, the efficacy of carbon pricing mechanisms, and the role of renewable energy adoption in mitigating climate risks. Additionally, this research incorporates machine learning techniques to enhance predictive accuracy in modeling future climate-economic interactions. Through rigorous empirical analysis, the study provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to design sustainable strategies that balance economic growth with climate resilience. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change, emphasizing the importance of evidence-based decision-making in addressing one of humanity’s most pressing challenges.

Sustainable Development Goals and wellbeing for resilient societies: shocks and recovery

AbstractThe ‘decade of action’ intended to accomplish the ambitious 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) faces notable challenges. Our investigation into the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on SDG progress reveals important lessons for shaping effective policy interventions to ensure resilient societies and overall well-being. Through systematic mapping and a rapid review approach, our analysis reveals that nearly 90% of the SDGs, specifically 144 targets, were adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, there is a glimmer of opportunity: 66 targets stand to gain from the crisis-induced transformations, provided that the right choices are made. Achieving this goal demands a comprehensive approach and decisive leadership to steer an inclusive economic recovery that also safeguards the environment while safeguarding the environment. The intricate interplay between the ongoing planetary and post-COVID-19 crises, environmental challenges, and conflicts underscores the need for a proactive, deliberate and well-informed approach, marked by collaborative decision-making, which is imperative for effectively steering the ‘decade of action’ toward achieving the SDGs. These complex challenges demand collective, decisive action, all with the overarching aim of securing a just and sustainable future for all.

EXPRESS: Buy! Buy! Buy!—How Multi-Level Marketing Companies Pressure Their Participants to Buy Their Products

Despite the popularity of multi-level marketing (MLM) companies and their ability to attract many distributors worldwide with the promise of an income opportunity, the financial outcomes for these participants are often unfavorable. Many distributors invest more money in internal products and business expenses than they earn. Drawing upon the professional and business ethics literature, this paper develops a conceptual framework to understand how organizational characteristics (collectively) create a pressure on distributors to overspend on internal products. The framework integrates legal, financial, and social dimensions, emphasizing the dual roles of MLM distributors as both victims and potential offenders. Utilizing this framework, the paper discusses the limited effectiveness of current safeguard policies in preventing the problematic effects of the MLM industry, including the operation of some MLMs as pyramid schemes. It proposes new directions for research on MLMs and other distinct areas within marketing and public policy, particularly addressing the broader category of deceptive income opportunity providers (DIOPs).

Whether Pension Program Stimulates the Consumption of Addictive Products: Evidence from China’s New Rural Pension Scheme

ABSTRACT Much attention has been paid to evaluating the policy effects of pension programs, but few studies have focused on possible inefficiencies stemming from their implementation. Drawing on a quasi-natural experiment associated with the adoption of China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), this study explores the impact of the NRPS on food consumption among rural residents. A difference-in-differences (DID) analysis is performed using panel data from the 2009 and 2013 National Rural Fixed Observation survey. Results show that participation in the NRPS improves residents’ dietary quality by increasing the consumption of recommended foods and decreasing the consumption of non-recommended foods. However, the results also show that the NRPS is associated with increased consumption of addictive and unhealthy products, especially in households with lower average levels of education, poorer self-reported health, and older adults over age 60. Findings suggest that when examining the possible health effects of new pension policies, it is essential to account for potential increases in the intake of unhealthy and addictive products, such as cigarettes and alcohol.

EU Cohesion Policies and interregional inequalities in disruptive times

Despite the numerous contributions assessing the efficiency and effectiveness of Cohesion Policies, their role in stimulating growth and cohesion in different macroeconomic settings and in different business cycle periods remains highly debated. This article aims at contributing to this literature by investigating the link between Cohesion Policy, economic growth and interregional inequalities over periods of crisis and recovery. In particular, the article analyses whether Cohesion Policy is beneficial for the recovery of those regions mostly hit by the crisis and contributes to narrowing interregional gaps enhanced by the crisis. In addition, the paper analyses how the link between Cohesion Policy and interregional inequalities changes by investment axes, as it is the case of Research, Technology Development and Innovation funds, targeted to different goals. Based on an analysis covering all EU27 and UK NUTS2 regions in the period 2008–2019, the article confirms the multifaceted nexus between Cohesion Policy and interregional inequalities. It also raises warnings about the potential conflicts between its overarching goals and its multiple and expanding strategic objectives.

Model of Policy Network in Advocacy for the Formulation of Qanun Draft on Protection and Fulfillment of the Rights of People with Disabilities

This study aims to analyze the interaction and interdependence of policy networks, identify inhibiting and supporting factors, and formulate an effective policy network model in the formulation of the Qanun for the protection and fulfillment of the rights of persons with disabilities in North Aceh Regency. A qualitative approach was used in this study, with data collection methods including in-depth interviews, focus group discussions (FGD), observations, and document studies.The results of the study indicate that the interaction and interdependence among actors in the policy network in North Aceh Regency are still not optimal. The involved actors often work separately without adequate coordination, and differences in interests and priorities hinder the achievement of common goals. The main inhibiting factors include a lack of resources, differences in interests among actors, and low public awareness of the rights of persons with disabilities. On the other hand, supporting factors include the commitment of the local government, support from NGOs, and initiatives from the community of persons with disabilities.An effective policy network model includes enhancing coordination among actors, establishing regular communication forums, strengthening the capacity of involved actors, and active participation from the community of persons with disabilities. By implementing this model, it is expected that the formulation of the Qanun for the protection and fulfillment of the rights of persons with disabilities in North Aceh Regency can proceed more effectively and inclusively.

Optimal sampling strategy for probability estimation: An application to the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring program

AbstractImported agricultural pests can cause substantial damage to agriculture, food security, and ecosystems. In the United States, the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring (AQIM) program conducts random sampling to estimate the probabilities that cargo and passengers arriving at ports of entry carry pests. Assessing these risks accurately is critical to enable effective policies and operational procedures. This study introduces a pathway‐level analysis with an objective function aligned with AQIM's goal, offering a new perspective compared to the current container‐by‐container approach, which relies on heuristics to set inspection rates. We formulate an optimization model that minimizes the mean squared error of the probability estimates that AQIM obtains. The central decision‐making tradeoff that the model explores is whether it is preferable to sample more arriving containers (and fewer boxes per container) or more boxes per container (and fewer containers), given limited resources. We first derive an analytical solution for the optimal sampling strategy by leveraging several approximations. Then, we apply our model to a numerical case study of maritime cargo sampling at the Port of Long Beach. Across a wide range of parameter settings, the optimal strategy samples more containers (but fewer boxes per container) than the current AQIM protocol. The difference between the two strategies and the accuracy improvement with the optimal approach are larger if the pest statuses of boxes in the same container are more strongly correlated. We recommend that AQIM record box‐level (beyond only container‐level) inspection data, which could be used to estimate this correlation and other model parameters.

Category-Based Administrative Access Control Policies

As systems evolve, security administrators need to review and update access control policies. Such updates must be carefully controlled due to the risks associated with erroneous or malicious policy changes. We propose a category-based access control (CBAC) model, called Admin-CBAC , to control administrative actions. Since most of the access control models in use nowadays (including the popular RBAC and ABAC models) are instances of CBAC, from Admin-CBAC , we derive administrative models for RBAC and ABAC, too. We present a graph-based representation of Admin-CBAC policies and a formal operational semantics for administrative actions via graph rewriting. We also discuss implementations of Admin-CBAC exploiting the graph-based representation. Using the formal semantics, we show how properties (such as safety, liveness, and effectiveness of policies) and constraints (such as separation of duties) can be checked, and discuss the impact of policy changes. Although the most interesting properties of policies are generally undecidable in dynamic access control models, we identify particular cases where reachability properties are decidable and can be checked using our operational semantics, generalising previous results for RBAC and ABAC α .

Exploring carbon emission effects of national-level industrial park policies on cities in China

Serving as the backbone of economic development, industrial parks have strong implications for reducing carbon emissions in China under the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” background. This study explores the carbon emission reduction effects of three different types of national-level industrial parks on prefectural-level cities in China, including economic and technological development zones (ETDZs), eco-industrial demonstration parks (EIDPs), and low-carbon industrial parks (LCIPs). Data on 204 prefectural-level cities over the period of 1999 to 2019 were examined by using the difference-in-differences method and the mediating effect model. The study revealed that (1) the three types of industrial parks significantly reduced the intensity of city carbon emissions by 1,155, 395, and 450 tons per million CNY, respectively; (2) There existed lag effects of 7 years for the ETDZ and 3 years for the EIDP; (3) Industrial structure exhibited significant mediating effects, with ETDZ and EIDP reducing city carbon emission intensity by 58 and 56 tons per million CNY, respectively; (4) Strong heterogeneity in the effects was found, arising from the differences in geographical location, resources endowment, and amount of industrial parks; and (5) ETDZ and EIDP reduced the carbon emission intensity of neighboring cities by 174 and 144 tons per million CNY, respectively, while LCIP increased that by 686 tons per million CNY. The major contribution of this study is analyzing the city-level impacts of ETDZ, EIDP, and LCIP, three different types of national industrial park policies with different implementation periods, regional distributions, and policy focuses. This not only fills a gap in the analyses of ETDZ and LCIP policies in this area of research, but also draws analogies and contrasts between the effects of the three different policies. This study suggests that the stability and long-term nature of industrial park policies be maintained and further transformation and upgrading of industrial structure be attained. Additionally, intercity coordination could be introduced or enhanced.

The impact of dollar price fluctuations on the GDP of developing countries: Iraq as a model

The exchange rate is a tool of monetary policy, which is a matter of monetary policy, determined by the Central Bank of Iraq, as well as the subject of the exchange rate of complex topics, and the importance of this research lies in understanding the impact of dollar price fluctuations on the Iraqi economy, which contributes to enhancing knowledge about how external factors interact with local economic conditions, providing valuable recommendations for decision-makers to design effective strategies to deal with these fluctuations and achieve greater economic stability. The descriptive approach was used to collect and analyze economic data related to dollar price fluctuations and its impact on GDP, which helps to understand the relationships between these variables in Iraq during the period (2003-2024), the most important conclusions reached by the research that the general trend indicates sustainable growth in GDP, but economic challenges, such as exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, need to be effectively addressed. The government and central bank should promote economic stability through effective monetary policies that support growth and maintain exchange rate stability.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Relationship Between GDP and the Global Hunger Index Over the Last 20 Years

This study examines the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the Global Hunger Index (GHI) over the past two decades. By analyzing data from various countries across different income levels, the research explores how economic growth intersects with hunger dynamics. The study utilizes reputable sources, including reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the World Bank. The findings highlight that while GDP per capita is an important factor in reducing hunger, other elements such as income inequality, education, health expenditure, agricultural productivity, and governance significantly influence hunger outcomes. The research underscores the necessity for holistic approaches that integrate economic growth with social equity and effective policy interventions to eradicate hunger globally.

Policy‐driven integrated reporting and integrated thinking: A cross‐country analysis

AbstractDrawing upon the institutional approach of legitimacy theory and Hofstede's cultural model, this study (a) examines the improvement of integrated thinking (IT) after applying integrated reporting (IR) policies, (b) compares the policy effects in policy‐driven adoption and voluntary adoption and (c) explores the cross‐country differences from the perspective of culture and policy convergence. We collect data from countries with corporate governance codes encouraging IR (i.e., Australia, Japan and Malaysia). We first use a difference‐in‐differences (DID) design to compare policy‐driven adoption with voluntary adoption in each country. Then, we use the treatment‐effect model to examine the influence of culture and policy convergence. The DID results indicate an increase in IT after applying IR policies, but the effect of IR policies on promoting IT is limited in policy‐driven adoption. The treatment effect model results show that power distance and uncertainty avoidance will promote IR adoption, and long‐term orientation and detailed guidance can mitigate the worse performance in policy‐driven adoption. Our suggestions may help countries adjust their IR policy to improve policy effectiveness based on different cultural settings. Furthermore, our study provides quantitative evidence of the relationship between policy‐driven IR and IT and innovative insights into the cross‐country analysis for further IR research.

Testing the unintended cost effects of health policies for generic substitutions: the case of China’s National Volume-Based Procurement (NVBP) policy

Abstract Generic substitutions are globally considered to contain health expenditures. Yet it is uncertain whether the costs would spill over to other medicines or health services. Contextualizing China’s National Volume-Based Procurement (NVBP) policy, which promoted generic substitution, this study tests the changes in patients’ utilisation of generic medicines and whether the costs shift to other pharmaceutics or health services post-policy. This population-based, matched, cohort study uses claims data from Tianjin, China in 2018-2020. We focus on Amlodipine, the most commonly used calcium channel blocker with the largest volume. We build comparable post-policy cohorts: Non-switchers who kept using originator Amlodipine, Pure-switchers who loyally switched to generic Amlodipine, and Back-switchers who switched back-and-forth; and compare between each matched pair, respectively, of their annual healthcare costs and that broken down by components, and patients’ use of and adherence to Amlodipine post-policy. 1185 Pure-switchers, 1398 Back-switchers, and 2330 Non-switchers are identified (mean age: 63.0 years; 58.5% men). For the matched pairs, Pure-switchers (N=772) incurred an annual total medical costs of CNY 9213.5, 12.2% lower than Non-switchers (N=1544, absolute difference CNY -1309.3, 95%CI: [-2645.8, -19.6]). The cost reduction only results from Amlodipine prescriptions in outpatient encounters, and are equally born on health plans and the enrolees. Pure-switchers and Non-switchers are not different in costs from other medicines, nor from other items including tests, surgeries, beds, and medical consumables for hypertension-related encounters/admissions. Pure-switchers had higher daily dosage and better adherence to Amlodipine than Non-switchers as well. The differences between Back-switchers and Non-switchers show similar trends but are less profound. China’s NVBP policy is effective to control pharmaceutical costs. No unintended cost effects have yet been identified in the short run. Other countries may learn from China on the comprehensive sets of auxiliary policies, including listing, bidding, purchasing, and reimbursing, to better promote generic substitutions.

Factors Associated with Effectiveness of Comprehensive Sexuality Education in Secondary Schools in Luanshya District, Zambia

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of sexuality education policy in secondary schools. Methodology: Its school based cross-sectional study which was conducted among secondary school teachers and secondary school going pupils in an urban area of Luanshya district. A self-administered semi structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Students were to answer one option unless specified otherwise. Open-ended questions were given wherever description of answers was required. The questions were framed in English. Completed questionnaires were compiled and entered into Epi data and analyzed using Stata 12. Descriptive and inferential statistics such as frequency tables, percentages and correlation tests were also be used. Findings: This study allowed for a better understanding of the teachers’ and pupils’ attitude, knowledge levels, curriculum appropriateness and cultural influence towards provision of sexuality education in secondary schools. Majority of respondent had positive attitude towards the provision of sexuality education and generally majority of respondents had low knowledge levels on sexuality education. Furthermore, most respondent indicated that culture has negative influence towards provision of sexuality education and majority of respondents indicated that the curriculum was appropriate for the delivery of sexuality education. Each school has a different outlook and direction on the subject of sexual education programs; therefore, it is crucial to understand what, where, and why it is being offered. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Teachers need training in sexuality education in order to overcome their anxieties about sexuality education and rid them of any negative cultural beliefs they may have regarding sexuality education. In addition, the government should organize trainings and workshops for teachers intermittently to improve their teaching skills in sensitive areas like adolescent sexual health. Lastly Sexuality education should start in primary schools.

Why Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) Social Welfare Function Is Not Society’s Social Welfare Function

Abstract In 2023, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued guidance documents that specified new procedures for assessing prospective government regulations (Circular A-4) and economic policies more generally (Circular A-94). These revisions to long-standing guidance were not minor updates but shifted policy analyses from an efficiency-oriented perspective to a redistributive approach. OMB broadened the guidelines for reporting distributional consequences of policies and also specified how policy impacts on different income groups should be weighted. The weights assume that the social welfare function is governed by the sum of identical individual utility functions, each of which exhibits a substantial rate of diminishing marginal utility of income. The resulting weights provide a premium for households below the median-income level and a considerable penalty for those at higher-income levels. Application of the weights to property losses creates potentially substantial inefficiencies. If based on current empirical evidence on the income elasticity of the value of a statistical life rather than assuming that there is a complete offset of the weights, application of the weights to mortality risk valuation would generate inequities in protection.

The Dynamic Post COVID-19 World and Inflation: is Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Effective?

Nigeria had relative success in tackling the Covid-19 and its attendant economic consequences. A complementary mix of superior monetary and fiscal policy interventions saw support for the real sector, as well as growth and strengthening for the financial sector. The monetary authorities used several mediums to inject funds into the economy, while the financial sector was the channel through which huge sums were injected into the economy. These interventions however came with their fair share of woes, as they were carried out against the backdrop of rising inflation and unemployment levels. The unique nature of the Nigerian economy saw policy interventions targeted at stabilizing the economy, yield less than satisfactory outcomes. Currently, Nigeria faces the lagged impact of monetary and fiscal Covid-19 interventions in persistent high double digit inflation rates. The fall in global oil supply and world food prices necessitated by the Ukraine-Russian war have not helped the situation. These global events have had far reaching impacts on the Nigeria economy via the shortfall in supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) products, food shortages, and resultant exchange rate pressures. The domestic economy has not been without its fair share of events that have resulted in a spike in inflation rates. The persistent security issues in the north and other parts of Nigeria, did not serve as an obstacle to people mobilization and the high spending during the 2023 elections. Declining government revenues, the rising public debt and its servicing, while inimical in their own stead, have catalyzed the pressure on the exchange rate. Against these backdrop, the monetary authority’s decision to institute a currency redesign and cashless policy has left people confused as to what actually is their short- and long-term goals/objectives, the effectiveness of policy to achieve said goals, as well as their readiness to tailor policy to changing global events/trends. The study will seek to examine monetary authority responses to curb inflation and achieve economic stability.

Implementation of Committee Partnerships on AI-Based School Policies at Public Junior High School

In the increasingly sophisticated digital era, artificial intelligence (AI) technology has significantly changed various fields, including education. In Indonesia, secondary schools have begun implementing AI technology to improve the quality of teaching and school management. Implementing this technology includes using AI-based systems for personalized learning, student data analysis, and more efficient school administration management. Implementing AI-based policies requires a strong partnership between the school committee and the school. This includes monitoring technology implementation, providing teacher training, and involving parents in the technology-based learning process. This study aims to identify and analyze the role of partnerships between school committees and schools in implementing AI-based policies at SMP Negeri 3 Tanjungsari. To ensure effective policy implementation, various stakeholders, including school committees, must support advancing AI technology in education. This study employs a qualitative approach, incorporating a case study method. It obtained the collected data through in-depth interviews, participant observation, and document analysis. The study results indicate that strong partnerships between school committees and schools play a significant role in supporting the implementation of AI policies. However, some challenges are still faced, such as the committee's lack of understanding of AI technology. This study also offers strategies to improve the effectiveness of these partnerships, including training and enhancing communication between the committee and the school. These findings significantly contribute to developing educational policies that are more adaptive to technological advances.

Pension inequality and collective pensions funds: the trade-offs of pension redistribution

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of introducing a Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) scheme to reduce pension inequality within a Fully Funded Defined Contribution (FDC) system. Using an overlapping generations (OLG) model, we analyse the Chilean pension system to assess how a CDC scheme reallocates resources from high- to low-productivity pensioners, increasing overall welfare by improving the replacement rates of low-income retirees. Results show that implementing a CDC scheme boosts the capital stock and GDP while only slightly decreasing private savings and consumption. Although high-productivity workers experience a welfare loss due to increased contributions, the positive redistribution effect for low-productivity workers results in a net welfare gain for society. When compared to raising taxes on labour, capital, or consumption, the CDC scheme proves more efficient, as tax-based alternatives lead to larger welfare losses. Capital taxes significantly reduce investment and GDP, causing a 6.9% drop in steady-state consumption. Our findings are robust across different worker ratios, demonstrating that the CDC scheme is an effective policy for reducing pension inequality while supporting economic growth and maintaining overall welfare.

Physicians in congress: Professional backgrounds and legislative effectiveness

AbstractDespite a long history of physician service in the U.S. Congress, scholars have not yet provided a systematic study of physician members of Congress (PMCs) behavior once elected. Using publicly available data, the authors built a database of all PMCs, including years served, gender, and party affiliation since 1921, merging these data with information on PMC lawmaking activities since 1973. We show that, relative to other members, PMCs are substantially more likely to sponsor and have their health policies passed relative to other members. Further, PMCs are 66% more legislatively effective on health policy matters relative to other members. We show that these health policy effectiveness gains are isolated to health policy making and are not driven by committee assignments or ideological moderation. This work expands on the literatures related to the descriptive and substantive representation of occupational and economic class groupings as well as lawmaking effectiveness.