Policy Coordination Research Articles

Built Environment’s Non-Linear Impact on Subway Passenger Flow Through Improved Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding the complex correlation between the built environment and subway passenger flow can provide unique insights for the development of transportation operations and urban coordination policies. Few studies have systematically analyzed the rationality of selecting built environment variables and further explored the non-linear relationships. In this study, we integrated various sources of built environmental factors and developed an interpretable machine learning analysis framework using backward elimination extreme gradient boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values analysis (BE-XGBoost-SHAP). The framework was validated by analyzing passenger flows during the morning peak, non-peak, and evening peak periods at the station level. The research results indicate that there are significant differences between built environment factors and the time-varying passenger flow. Land use characteristics significantly dominate across all three temporal periods. The importance of other variable types in relation to passenger flows varies significantly across the three time periods. It is worth noting that the relationships between all variables and passenger flow at different time periods are non-linear, with the majority displaying threshold effects. Compared with the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and ordinary least squares (OLS) models, the proposed interpretive framework performs better as regards R-square, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. This study offers valuable insights, elucidating the pivotal land use attributes that notably affect passenger flow, the significance of varied built environment factors across distinct time spans, and the acknowledgment of non-linearities and threshold effects within these relationships. These findings are imperative for urban planning and the enhancement of station area design.

Effect of Outpatient Pooling Scheme on the Medical Costs of Patients with Chronic Diseases -- Based on Multi-period DID Modeling

The establishment of a sound mechanism for covering outpatient medical bills under the basic medical insurance for urban employees is one of the major livelihood projects to deepen the reform of China's medical security system. This study utilizes the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), combines the interview data from four periods from 2011 to 2018, empirically analyzes the impact of the outpatient pooling scheme on the total outpatient costs and personal burden of patients with chronic diseases by using a multi-period double-difference model and further validates it by using the double-difference propensity score matching method (PSM-DID). The results show that the implementation of the outpatient pooling scheme is conducive to reducing the healthcare burden of chronically ill patients. Although the outpatient co-ordination did not have a significant impact on the reduction of outpatient costs for patients with chronic diseases, it significantly reduced the self-treatment costs of patients with chronic diseases. Further research found that the policy had a greater impact on chronic disease patients with poorer health. Combined with the results of the study, this paper suggests gradually eliminating the differences in basic policy treatment between regions, guaranteeing the level of outpatient treatment for insured patients in different places, and promoting better utilization of the outpatient co-ordination policy effect.

Embedding a Circular Economy through Local Government in Gippsland: A Case Study, Utilising Smart Specialisation Methodology

AbstractIn 2017, the ageing Hazelwood coal-fired power station in Gippsland (Australia), finally—and abruptly, closed. The Latrobe Valley Authority (LVA), funded by the Victorian State Government was then established to assist redundant workers and develop a long-term approach to transitioning towards a more sustainable regional economy and socially cohesive community. To enable this, the LVA adopted and implemented a methodology made popular in the European Union of the ‘Smart Specialisation Strategy’ (S3), bringing together practitioners from government, business, research and education, and the wider local community (known as the ‘quadruple helix’) to co-design a shared vision for the region’s future prosperity. With Australia declaring its commitment to and the Victorian government developing policy support for a Circular Economy (CE), the LVA funded a research project in 2022 to facilitate a ‘place-based’ approach to implementing a CE business model across Gippsland. Based on interviews and workshops conducted in the period 2022–23 with key regional stakeholders, as well as on the analysis of secondary sources, this paper provides an overview of the experience utilising the S3 methodology to explore the implementation of CE in a regional setting, historically dominated by natural resource-based industries, that is now undergoing multiple economic transitions, including cessation of coal-fired power generation, oil and gas extraction and native timber harvesting. Significant barriers identified include: poor understanding of broader opportunities embedded in systemic notions of S3 and CE, siloed structure of local government authorities (both within or between councils), difficulty in promoting alignment and cooperation at all levels between a diverse range of stakeholders, lack of policy coordination and support for business innovation, together with the absence of financial incentives or regulatory mechanisms to change behaviour from a linear to CE. Despite improved intentions in policy settings around intentionality of CE practices and other initiatives being progressed simultaneously with this work, CE in Gippsland (and Victoria more broadly) and its implementation continue to be narrowly focussed on recycling and waste management, where there are clear pressures in stock-piling of waste and limitations on landfill expansion. Regional approaches to implementation of circular economy are limited in Australia, with the exception of exemplars such as Geelong, Barwon South West, and Bega. However, there are currently no examples of utilising S3 methodology to implement CE in a regional setting. Here we identify current barriers and provide recommendations on how to overcome these with the engagement of a diverse range of stakeholders across Gippsland from agribusiness, regional planning, local governments, small and medium enterprises, utilising S3 methodology, to enable systemic changes towards CE models to be implemented region-wide. This study documents the journey so far for Gippsland, where the transition from traditional extractive industry provides the opportunity to embed more sustainable practices moving forward.

Identifying the antecedents for the green transformation of resource-exhausted cities in China

To address the issue of green transformation in resource-exhausted cities, this study employs the Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) index model to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of support policies execution at both central and local levels, covering 16 policies at the different administrative levels. Meanwhile, utilizing the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method, the study investigates the interaction mechanisms and effects of various internal and external factors in the context of policy coordination, from the perspective of green transformation condition configurations. The findings reveal that the overall effect of supporting policies for resource-exhausted cities in China is generally commendable. Moreover, there is a notable characteristic that “the lower the administrative level, the higher the quality of the support policies”. Notably, organizational, technological, environmental, and policy conditions alone cannot solely facilitate the green transition of resource-exhausted cities. Instead, it is the harmonious configuration of these antecedents that drives successful green transformation. Additionally, the configuration of antecedent conditions for green transformation exhibits the heterogeneity of different types. Specifically, the eastern region primarily relies on technological innovation and production process improvement, while the central region focuses on both production process improvement and support policy combinations. By contrast, the western region primarily emphasizes support policy combinations and the fostering of environmental conditions. Furthermore, the green transformation of resource-exhausted cities with coal and oil types mainly depends on the combination of policy support and technological innovation. Metal, forestry, and other types of resource-exhausted cities rely on the upgrading and advancement of industrial structures. In the grouped analysis of administrative level, innovation capability, and distance to the provincial capital city, cities with higher administrative levels, higher innovation capabilities, and closer proximity to the provincial capital city are more likely to achieve green transformation. Thereby, this study emphasizes the critical role of support policies and the identification of effective pathways in promoting the green transformation of resource-exhausted cities.

Artificial Intelligence & the Capacity for Discrimination: The Imperative Need for Frameworks, Diverse Teams & Human Accountability

The increasing integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in various industries has led to concerns about how these systems can perpetuate discrimination, particularly in fields like employment, healthcare, and public policy. Multiple academic and business perspectives on AI discrimination, focusing on the need for global policy coordination and ethical oversight to mitigate biased outcomes, ask for our technical innovators to create contingencies that will better protect humanity’s experience with AI’s ever-expanding reach. Central to the key constructs such as biased datasets, algorithmic transparency, and the global governance of AI systems can function as a harmful drawback to these systems. Without adequate data governance and transparency, AI systems can perpetuate discrimination. AI's ability to discriminate stems primarily from biased data and the opacity of machine learning models, necessitating proactive research and policy implementation on a global scale. These frameworks must transcend the limitations of the experiences or perspectives of their programmers to ensure that AI innovations are ethically sound and that their use in global organizations adheres to principles of fairness and accountability. This synthesis will explore how these articles advocate for comprehensive, continuous monitoring of AI systems and policies that address both local and international concerns, offering a roadmap for organizations to innovate responsibly while mitigating the risks of AI-driven discrimination.

The anchoring policy perspective on policy change: mechanisms, applications and analytical challenges

ABSTRACT How functional relationships between policies influence policy design and policy change has received relatively limited attention within public policy scholarship despite the importance of policy coordination. This article contributes to addressing this gap by introducing the Anchoring Policies Perspective (APP), a framework for analysing interactions between policies in functional policy hierarchies. The APP examines how formal links between anchoring policies (AP) and functionally subordinate policies (SP) generate anchoring effects, whereby the provisions codified in APs generate alignment pressures that channel the design of SPs towards the norms and goals of the AP. In the article, we examine the analytical contribution of the APP by analysing the distinguishing characteristics of APs, the mechanisms through which APs influence SP introduction and design, and political strategies for managing situations where resistance occurs to the alignment of SPs with their APs. Examples from environmental and energy policy are used to illustrate key features of the AP-SP relationship, following which the APP’s contribution to public policy scholarship is discussed. We conclude by arguing that the APP has the potential to bring important new insights to the analysis of policy change while building connections with established theories of policy change to develop the APP framework further.

ФОРСАЙТ ЯК ІНСТРУМЕНТ ВІДПОВІДАЛЬНОГО ДЕРЖАВНОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ І СТРАТЕГУВАННЯ МІЖНАРОДНОЇ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В УМОВАХ ЗАГОСТРЕННЯ ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ПРОБЛЕМ РОЗВИТКУ

The purpose of the article is to study strategic long-term planning tools that allow timely identification of the latest risks, challenges and threats to international economic development that make it difficult to solve global problems that are a consequence of failures in the coordination of international economic policy. It has been determined that strategic forecasting allows politicians to increase the efficiency of government decision-making by identifying opportunities and threats that may arise in the coming years and decades, and also involves the development of possible strategies to counter them by taking into account the characteristics of the identified trends. The phenomenon of the new economy is characterized. The influence of technological development on the asymmetry of international economic development is determined. It has been established that the problems of international economic development in foresight strategizing include geopolitical rivalry, resource confrontation, energy dependence, deglobalization, disintegration processes, trade fragmentation, gaps in value and supply chains, reinstitutionalization of the system of international economic relations, recession, population aging, unemployment. Foresight forecasting tools that are not aimed at predicting a single “correct future” include: analysis of long-term trends and uncertainties; horizon scanning); scenario planning; shaping a normative future; political games; futures wheels; causal multilevel analysis. Research into long-term trends and uncertainties reveals key factors in different possible futures. The comprehensive observation carried out allows us to identify risks for the macroeconomic environment and proactively formulate a pool of measures to minimize the destructive impact of instability on socio-economic development. Improving foresight research as a critical element of strategic forecasting for solving problems of long-term development affects both theoretical aspects (conceptual approach, conceptual apparatus) and applied aspects (technologies and methods of development) of the development and use of this tool. Strategic planning allows you to develop adequate tools to achieve goals and proactively respond to the challenges of modern development, minimizing costs and compensating for the losses that arise for this reason, which lead to the loss of existing competitive advantages. The difference between forecasts and foresights is noted: forecasts are usually associated with uncontrollable events, while foresights most often deal with events and processes that are clearly controllable, therefore they assess the probability of not only one or another outcome of future events, but also the adoption of certain strategic and management decisions. The ability to distinguish normative approaches (what we want) from pragmatic approaches (what we should) is an important component of thinking in terms of alternative futures

The public use of early-stage scientific advances in carbon dioxide removal: a science-technology-policy-media perspective

Abstract While Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) solutions are considered essential to meet Paris Agreement objectives and curb climate change, their maturity and current ability to operate at scale are highly debated. The rapid development, deployment, and diffusion of such methods will likely require the coordination of science, technology, policy, and societal support. This article proposes a bibliometric approach to quantify the public use of early-stage research in CDR. Specifically, we employ generalized linear models to estimate the likelihood that scientific advances in eight different carbon removal solutions may induce (i) further production of scientific knowledge, (ii) technological innovation, and (iii) policy and media discussion. Our main result is that research in CDR is of significant social value. CDR research generates significant, positive, yet heterogeneous spillovers within science and from science to technology, policy, and media. In particular, advances in Direct Air Capture spur further research and tend to result in patentable technologies, while Blue Carbon and Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage appear to gain relative momentum in the policy and public debate. Moreover, scientific production and collaborations cluster geographically by type of CDR, potentially affecting long-term carbon removal strategies. Overall, our results suggest the existence of coordination gaps between science, technology, policy, and public support.

Macro-Economic Policy Coordination and Macro-Economic Instability in Pakistan

This study is intended to examine the impact of macroeconomic policies on macroeconomic instability in Pakistan. This study used time series data for the period of 1990 to 2022. To deal with the stationarity of the data ADF and PP tests are used which suggest the use of ARDL. The existence of a long-run relationship is confirmed by the Bound test. The impact of fiscal & monetary policy is found to be significant in the long run. The impact of the fiscal policy variable (GEXP) on macroeconomic instability (MI) negatively means that an increase in GEXP (expansionary fiscal policy) leads to a decrease in MI while the impact of monetary policy variable IR (tight monetary policy) is found positive and significant in the long run means that the impact of tight monetary policy leads to increase MI. Similarly, the impact of expansionary fiscal policy on MI is effective but the monetary policy variable is effective in the short run. The impact of domestic investment is found to be negative and significant means that an increase in domestic investment leads to a decrease in MI. Therefore this study suggests that special attention should be paid to fiscal and monetary policies to deal with MI in Pakistan.

Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures

International climate policy risk spillovers occur when expected changes to climate policy stringency in one country affect expected climate policy stringency in another country. We develop an event study procedure to identify such spillovers in emissions trading systems, specifically examining the impact from the United States (US) to the European Union (EU). Distinguishing between policy events likely to reduce US commitment to climate action (‘brown events’) and those likely to increase it (‘green events’), we find that the average brown US policy event is associated with an anticipated increase in future EU carbon permit supply, leading to a cumulative 7.1% drop in EU carbon prices over the event window. Conversely, green US policy events are linked to an expected decrease in future EU permit supply, resulting in a cumulative 4.7% rise in EU carbon prices. These findings suggest that financial markets anticipate EU regulators to align with the direction of US climate policy. Our results underscore the significance of regulatory risk spillovers in global climate policy coordination.

From Brown to Green: Climate Transition and Macroprudential Policy Coordination

From Brown to Green: Climate Transition and Macroprudential Policy Coordination

Coordination of macro-management policies to curtail credit growth

Coordination of macro-management policies to curtail credit growth

Beyond the Average: emissions from electricity and the implications of decarbonization policies in Guangdong

Various policy interventions have been proposed to decarbonize the Chinese economy through the electricity sector. This study is the first to use generation-by-plant data to analyze the emissions from the electricity sector in a Chinese region and evaluate the environmental impacts of various policy interventions. Using regression techniques, the average emission factor, marginal emission factor, and marginal displacement factor, are estimated for different pollutants of Guangdong, the most affluent and populous province in China. Results reveal a decline in average emission factors over the sample period of 2017-2021, owing to the expansion of renewable energy. This study also finds a less pronounced disparity between marginal emission factors and average emission factors compared with that in developed countries, probably due to the prevalence of coal-burning plants and lower renewable energy penetration in Guangdong. Using the estimated emission factors, this study also examines the environmental effect of time-of-use tariffs, indirect emissions of electric vehicles, and carbon displacement effect of wind energy. The conclusions reveals that the time-of-use tariffs moderately reduced CO2 emissions, and the extensive adoption of electric vehicles and wind energy substantially reduces carbon emissions, indicating that decarbonizing the economy needs the coordination of various policies.

Status of Policy Coherence and Coordination for Enhanced Multisectoral Nutrition Programming in Kenya

Status of Policy Coherence and Coordination for Enhanced Multisectoral Nutrition Programming in Kenya

Decomposing Uncertainty: How Foreign Policy Risks Shape Chinese Stock Market Dynamics

This study examines the transmission mechanism of foreign economic policy uncertainty (FEPU) on the Chinese stock market from 1997 to 2022, using a vector autoregressive adaptation of the dividend discount model. By decomposing excess returns into cash flow (CF), excess return (ER), and risk-free rate (RF) components, we disentangle the effects of FEPU shocks on these distinct factors.Our findings indicate that FEPU primarily leads to a significant but temporary overestimation of impacts on cash flows and excess returns, with the market typically correcting itself after an initial overreaction. This pattern suggests a complex interplay between investor sentiment and market dynamics. Notably, trade stability amplifies the impact on CF, while closer monetary policy coordination enhances the transmission to RF and ER expectations. Additionally, economic cycles play a moderating role: downturns exacerbate the negative impacts on CF and RF, while bullish conditions foster resilience. Investor sentiment emerges as a crucial factor, with negative sentiment intensifying FEPU’s adverse effects during economic contractions.This research contributes a detailed perspective on how international relations, policy harmonization, and market psychology collectively influence FEPU transmission and affect China’s financial stability amidst global uncertainties. Our decomposition method illuminates the dynamic forces that drive market reactions over time, offering critical insights for refining risk management strategies and crafting policy measures that buffer the financial system against external economic shocks.

The evolution analysis of low-carbon power transition strategies and carbon emission decoupling based on carbon neutrality target

It is necessary for China to accelerate the low-carbon power transition to realize the carbon neutrality target by 2060. Based on the goal of carbon neutrality, Deep Reinforcement Learning with the Double Q-learning method is used to solve a multi-agent game in 30 provinces of China, in an attempt to explore the evolutionary process of regional low-carbon power transition strategies, carbon emissions, and carbon emission decoupling with economic growth. Conclusions are obtained as follows. First, regional low-carbon power transition strategies are not consistent. Though China is bound to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the carbon peak and carbon neutrality process will vary widely across regions and over time. Second, the cost of power decarbonization is higher in resource-based regions than that in core regions. The regional coordination policy can reduce the total carbon emissions in resource-based regions, but it will not alleviate their carbon emission decoupling costs. Third, the stable strategy of low-carbon power transition needs faster economic development and more abundant zero-carbon resources. Therefore, the carbon neutrality policy is suggested to be more spatially differentiated, more equitable, and more robust.

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies from a Game Theoretic Perspective

Under the backdrop of a highly intricate international environment and sluggish recovery of the global economy, it is crucial to delve into methods for bolstering national economic prowess and promoting economic prosperity and stability. Monetary policy and fiscal policy, as two primary macro-control tools, play a pivotal role in national progress, with their effective coordination becoming a significant issue. Game theory, a tool to mathematically model decisions made by different individuals through logical analysis, provides a solid theoretical foundation and practical framework for studying the issue. This paper utilizes game theory to model the coordination among the two policy-makers, the central banks and the governments while establishing a payoff matrix that reflects their utilities. During normal or recovery periods, this paper views it as a cooperative game, and the cooperative equilibrium will be that both policy-makers choose expansionary policies. During financial crisis, this paper views it as a non-cooperative game, and the Nash equilibrium will be that both policy-makers choose contractionary policies. Additionally, this paper selects specific examples from Brazilian history to validate the rationality of the model while confirming that the short-term equilibrium aligns with the modeling conclusions.

Exploring Entrepreneurial Success Factors in Nepal

Entrepreneurship education plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth and competitiveness by providing individuals with the skills and knowledge necessary for success and innovation. Addressing educational needs, particularly in underserved regions, can significantly enhance entrepreneurial outcomes and contribute to broader economic development. Government policies and regulations profoundly impact business operations, competitiveness, and growth. It is essential for governments to continuously adapt their policies to create a conducive business environment and promote entrepreneurial development. The interplay between government policies and business performance underscores the importance of a well-coordinated approach to economic policy and entrepreneurship support. Effective policy frameworks are essential in supporting entrepreneurial activities and fostering a favorable business environment. The dynamic relationship between government actions and business success highlights the need for ongoing adaptation and coordination in economic policy to promote entrepreneurial development and economic growth.

Institutionalizing leaving no one behind: operationalizing and analyzing worldwide national efforts

ABSTRACT The ‘Leave No One Behind’ (LNOB) principle presents a transformative approach to dealing with inequalities within the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) but has proven to be politically and technically challenging. Its national institutionalization therefore remains unclear while also under-researched. The aim of this article is two-fold. First, we provide a framework in which we conceptualize and operationalize (the institutionalization of) LNOB. Second, using our conceptual framework, we study how LNOB is institutionalized by national governments, focusing on public national policies around the SDGs. Our study finds that countries report to institutionalize aspects of policy coherence, inclusive participation, and disaggregated data more often than they institutionalize policy coordination and dedicated finance. However, when it comes to actual institutional structures and mechanisms to drive accountability, clear gaps can be identified. This article concludes that the achievement of LNOB remains uncertain at this point and presents necessary avenues for future research.

Gender in the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement – third generation trade agreement as a gateway to policy coordination?

This article considers the place of trade and gender in EU-Canada relations, with a particular focus on CETA and its functioning in a broader sense. More specifically, the authors seek to understand the process of defining the trade and gender agenda under the CETA framework and the practical ways the EU and Canada have sought to respond to them. The authors examine the challenges and opportunities related to women’s participation in the EU-Canada trade flows, what the instruments developed to support them were, what tools were at their disposal, whether CETA had had a real impact on their business activities, as well as the dynamics of the policy exchange and learning. The authors find that CETA delivers solid structures to design and implement concrete actions, leading to more policy coordination between the EU and Canada on trade and gender issues. However, there are still several gaps that need to be addressed, with the lack of disaggregated data being the most important. Le genre dans l’Accord économique et commercial global entre le Canada et l’Union européenne : un accord commercial de troisième génération qui débuterait une coordination des politiques ? Cet article s’intéresse à la place qu’occupent le commerce et le genre dans les relations entre le Canada et l’Union européenne (UE), et plus particulièrement à la place de l’Accord économique et commercial global (AECG) et de son implémentation au sens large. Plus spécifiquement, nous cherchons à comprendre les processus de définition du commerce et du genre dans le cadre de l’AECG et les façons concrètes dont l’UE et le Canada y répondent. Nous nous interrogeons sur les défis et les opportunités de la participation des femmes aux flux commerciaux entre l’UE et le Canada, sur les outils créés pour les soutenir, sur les outils tels qu’ils ont été mis à leur disposition, sur l’impact réel de l’AECG sur leurs activités commerciales, ainsi que sur les dynamiques d’échange de politiques et d’apprentissage.