Poleward Shift Of Storm Tracks Research Articles

The future poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere summer mid-latitude storm tracks stems from ocean coupling

The latitudinal position of mid-latitude storm tracks has large climate impacts affecting the distribution of precipitation, temperature, humidity, and winds over the extratropics. By the end of this century, climate models project a poleward shift of summer mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere. Most previous mechanisms for the poleward shift of the storm tracks focused on the role of atmospheric temperature changes. However, the relative roles of other climate system components in the projected storm tracks’ shift have not been examined to date. Here it is shown that thermodynamic ocean coupling is responsible for the future poleward shift of the storm tracks as it overcomes the effect of dynamic ocean coupling to shift the storm tracks equatorward. These results stress the importance of using full-physics ocean models to investigate the future shift of the storm tracks, and of better monitoring ocean coupling processes to improve our preparedness for future climate changes.

Evaluating the representation of Australian East Coast Lows in a regional climate model ensemble

Due to their large influence on both severe weather and water security along the east coast of Australia, it is increasingly important to understand how East Coast Lows (ECLs) may change over coming decades. Changes in ECLs may occur for a number of reasons including changes in the general atmospheric circulation (e.g. poleward shift of storm tracks) and/or changes in local conditions (e.g. changes in sea surface temperatures). Numerical climate models are the best available tool for studying these changes however, in order to assess future projections, climate model simulations need to be evaluated on how well they represent the historical climatology of ECLs. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a 15-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations to reproduce the climatology of cyclones obtained using three high-resolution reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA and JRA55). The performance of the RCM ensemble is also compared to results obtained from the global datasets that are used to drive the RCM ensemble (four general circulation model simulations and a low resolution reanalysis), to identify whether they offer additional value beyond the driving data. An existing cyclone detection and tracking algorithm is applied to derive a number of ECL characteristics and assess results at a variety of spatial scales. The RCM ensemble offers substantial improvement on the coarse-resolution driving data for most ECL characteristics, with results typically falling within the range of observational uncertainty, instilling confidence for studies of future projections. The study clearly highlights the need to use an ensemble of simulations to obtain reliable projections and a range of possible future changes.

Evaluating the representation of Australian East Coast Lows in a regional climate model ensemble

Due to their large influence on both severe weather and water security along the east coast of Australia, it is increasingly important to understand how East Coast Lows (ECLs) may change over coming decades. Changes in ECLs may occur for a number of reasons including changes in the general atmospheric circulation (e.g. poleward shift of storm tracks) and/or changes in local conditions (e.g. changes in sea surface temperatures). Numerical climate models are the best available tool for studying these changes however, in order to assess future projections, climate model simulations need to be evaluated on how well they represent the historical climatology of ECLs. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a 15-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations to reproduce the climatology of cyclones obtained using three high-resolution reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NASA-MERRA and JRA55). The performance of the RCM ensemble is also compared to results obtained from the global datasets that are used to drive the RCM ensemble (four general circulation model simulations and a low resolution reanalysis), to identify whether they offer additional value beyond the driving data. An existing cyclone detection and tracking algorithm is applied to derive a number of ECL characteristics and assess results at a variety of spatial scales. The RCM ensemble offers substantial improvement on the coarse-resolution driving data for most ECL characteristics, with results typically falling within the range of observational uncertainty, instilling confidence for studies of future projections. The study clearly highlights the need to use an ensemble of simulations to obtain reliable projections and a range of possible future changes.

Trends in Downward Solar Radiation at the Surface over North America from Climate Model Projections and Implications for Solar Energy

The projected changes in the downward solar radiation at the surface over North America for late 21st century are deduced from global climate model simulations with greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. A robust trend is found in winter over the United States, which exhibits a simple pattern of a decrease of sunlight over Northern USA. and an increase of sunlight over Southern USA. This structure was identified in both the seasonal mean and the mean climatology at different times of the day. It is broadly consistent with the known poleward shift of storm tracks in winter in climate model simulations with GHG forcing. The centennial trend of the downward shortwave radiation at the surface in Northern USA. is on the order of 10% of the climatological value for the January monthly mean, and slightly over 10% at the time when it is midday in the United States. This indicates a nonnegligible influence of the GHG forcing on solar energy in the long term. Nevertheless, when dividing the 10% by a century, in the near term, the impact of the GHG forcing is relatively minor such that the estimate of solar power potential using present-day climatology will remain useful in the coming decades.

Storm Track Shifts under Climate Change: What Can Be Learned from Large-Scale Dry Dynamics

Abstract Earth’s storm tracks are instrumental for transporting heat, momentum, and moisture and thus strongly influence the surface climate. Climate models, supported by a growing body of observational data, have demonstrated that storm tracks shift poleward as the climate warms. But the dynamical mechanisms responsible for this shift remain unclear. To isolate what portion of the storm track shift may be accounted for by large-scale dry dynamics alone, disregarding the latent heat released in phase changes of water, this study investigates the storm track shift under various kinds of climate change in an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM) with an adjustable but constant convective stability. It is found that increasing the mean surface temperature or the convective stability leads to poleward shifts of storm tracks, even if the convective stability is increased only in a narrow band around the equator. Under warming and convective stability changes roughly corresponding to a doubling of CO2 concentrations from a present-day Earthlike climate, storm tracks shift about 0.8° poleward, somewhat less than but in qualitative agreement with studies using moist GCMs. About 63% (0.5°) of the poleward shift is shown to be caused by tropical convective stability variations. This demonstrates that tropical processes alone (the increased dry static stability of a warmer moist adiabat) can account for part of the poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming. This poleward shift generally occurs in tandem with a poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation; however, the Hadley circulation expansion does not always parallel the storm track shift.

The Position of the Midlatitude Storm Track and Eddy-Driven Westerlies in Aquaplanet AGCMs

Abstract The sensitivity of the midlatitude storm track and eddy-driven wind to the sea surface temperature (SST) boundary forcing is studied over a wide range of perturbations using both simple and comprehensive general circulation models over aquaplanet lower boundary conditions. Under the single-jet circulation regime similar to the conditions of the present climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter or the Southern Hemisphere summer, the eddy-driven jet shifts monotonically poleward with both the global mean and the equator-to-pole gradient of the SST. The eddy-driven jet can have a reverse relationship to the gradient if it is well separated from the subtropical jet and Hadley cell boundary in a double-jet circulation regime. A simple scaling is put forward to interpret the simulated sensitivity of the storm-track/eddy-driven westerly wind position within the single-jet regime in both models. The rationale for the scaling is based on the notion that the wave activity flux can propagate horizontally away from the source region, resulting in a broader distribution of eddy potential vorticity (PV) flux in the upper troposphere than that of the flux in the opposite direction in the lower troposphere. As a consequence, the position of the maximum of the eddy-driven westerlies tends to be controlled by the profile of the relatively sharp-peaked low-level PV flux, which is dominated by the eddy heat flux component of the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux. Thus, the position of the eddy-driven surface westerlies may be inferred from the vertical EP flux coming out of the lower troposphere. The vertical EP flux can be parameterized by a measure of baroclinicity, whose latitudinal variations show a linear relationship with the meridional displacement of the eddy-driven westerlies and the storm track. This relationship still holds well within the single-jet regime, even when only the variation of static stability is taken into consideration in estimating the baroclinicity (the temperature gradient component of which is fixed). To the extent that the static stability is deterministically constrained by and hence can be predicted from the given SST conditions through a moist scaling for the midlatitude stratification, one may, given SST perturbations, predict which way the storm track and eddy-driven wind should shift with respect to a chosen reference climate state. The resultant anomaly-wise scaling turns out to be valid for both the idealized and comprehensive models, regardless of the details in the model physics. By corollary, it can be argued that the poleward shift of storm track found in the global warming simulations by fully coupled climate models may be attributed, at least partially, to the increase in the subtropical and midlatitude static stability with global warming.

East Asian Climate Change in the 21st Century as Simulated by the Coupled Climate Model ECHO-G under IPCC SRES Scenarios

Future climate changes over East Asia are studied from ensemble simulations of the coupled climate model ECHO-G, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. Three ensemble experiments are performed: the A2 scenario experiment with greenhouse-gas (GHG) plus sulfate aerosol forcing (referred to as A2), and the A2 and B2 scenario experiments, with GHG forcing only (A2G and B2G respectively). All experiments show that East Asian near surface temperature (T2m) and precipitation (PCP) will increase in the 21st century with larger amplitudes than global means. Seasonally varying changes are found as a larger warming in winter and fall and a stronger PCP in summer. Relative roles of large-scale and convective precipitations (LSP and CP) are analyzed extensively. A mass flux scheme with an adjustment closure is used for cumulus parameterization. In the global mean, LSP dominates total PCP increase whereas CP controls PCP reductions near the equator in December. January-February (DJF) and 30-40° S in June-July-August (JJA). The latter originates from a weakening of the northern winter Hadley circulation and an increased static stability in the Southern Hemisphere, supporting previous results. For the East Asian mean, the CP change explains most of the increase of total PCP in JJA while the LSP change plays a more critical role in DJF. The LSP increase over the North Pacific in DJF is well associated with strengthened [weakened] baroclinicity north [south] of 40°N, i.e., a poleward shift of storm track. Aerosol effects on East Asian climate change (A2 minus A2G patterns) are characterized by cooling and drying with patterns similar to those of the mean changes. This is inconsistent with localized features found in previous works, indicating large uncertainty in regional responses to aerosol forcing. A possible impact of GHG mitigation over the late 21st century (A2G minus B2G patterns) is more pronounced in T2m than in PCP changes, with similar patterns as in aerosol effects. Simulated CP and LSP contributions to PCP changes are insensitive to the aerosol effect as well as that of GHG mitigations.