Poleward Range Limits Research Articles

Dispersal limits poleward expansion of mangroves on the west coast of North America

While much attention has been paid to the climatic controls of species' range limits, other factors such as dispersal limitation are also important. Temperature is an important control of the distribution of coastal mangrove forests, and mangrove expansion at multiple poleward range limits has been linked to increasing temperatures. However, mangrove abundances at other poleward range limits have been surprisingly insensitive to climate change, indicating other drivers of range limitation. For example, along the west coast of North America, the poleward mangrove range limits are found on the Baja California and mainland coasts of Mexico, between 26°48ʹ and 30°18ʹN. Non‐climatic factors may play an important role in setting these range limits as 1) the abundance of range limit populations has been relatively insensitive to climate variability and 2) an introduced population of mangroves has persisted hundreds of kilometers north of the natural range limits. We combined a species distribution model with a high‐resolution oceanographic transport model to identify the roles of climate and dispersal limitation in controlling mangrove distributions. We identified estuarine habitat that is likely climatically suitable for mangroves north of the current range limits. However, propagules from current mangrove populations are unlikely to reach these suitable locations due to prevailing ocean currents and geomorphic factors that create a patchy distribution of estuarine habitat with large between‐patch distances. Thus, although climate change is driving range shifts of mangroves in multiple regions around the world, dispersal is currently limiting poleward mangrove expansion at several range limits, including the west coast of North America.

Is adaptation associated with long-term persistence beyond a geographic range limit?

Adaptation to new habitats might facilitate species' range shifts in response to climate change. In 2005, we transplanted experimental populations of coastal dune plant Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia into 4 sites within and 1 site beyond its poleward range limit. Beyond-range transplants had high fitness but often delayed reproduction. To test for adaptation associated with experimental range expansion, we transplanted descendants from beyond- and within-range populations after 10 generations in situ into 2 sites within the range, 1 at the range edge, and 2 sites beyond the range. We expected to detect adaptation to beyond-range conditions due to substantial genetic variation within experimental populations and environmental variation among sites. However, individuals from beyond-range experimental populations were not fitter than those from within the range when planted at either beyond-range site, indicating no adaptation to the beyond-range site or beyond-range environments in general. Beyond-range descendants also did not suffer lower fitness within the range. Although reproduction was again delayed beyond the range, late reproduction was not favored more strongly beyond than within the range, and beyond-range descendants did not delay reproduction more than within-range descendants. Persistence in beyond-range environments may not require adaptation, which could allow a rapid response to climate change.

Does high parasite load contribute to limitation of the poleward range of Acropora corals?

The role of species interactions in setting species range limits is rarely empirically explored. Here, we quantify host and parasite densities in subtropical eastern Australia (26.65°–30.20°S) to examine whether parasitism might contribute to range limitation of Acropora corals at their cold-range boundary. 79% of Acropora corals had endolithic barnacles (family Pyrgomatidae), with higher parasite load in larger corals and up to 141 barnacles per coral. Parasite load increased poleward and closer to the mainland and was greater in cooler and high nutrient environments. Parasite burden was higher at sites with fewer Acropora corals, broadly consistent with the hypothesis that parasites can fragment host populations where host densities are low, and the parasite is a better disperser than the host. Whilst the mechanism is unclear, our findings suggest that at the high densities recorded here, coral-barnacles could influence range dynamics of Acropora corals at their poleward range limit.

A comparison of global mangrove maps: Assessing spatial and bioclimatic discrepancies at poleward range limits

Mangrove distribution maps are used for a variety of applications, ranging from estimates of mangrove extent, deforestation rates, quantify carbon stocks, to modelling response to climate change. There are multiple mangrove distribution datasets, which were derived from different remote sensing data and classification methods, and so there are some discrepancies among these datasets, especially with respect to the locations of their range limits. We investigate the latitudinal discrepancies in poleward mangrove range limits represented by these datasets and how these differences translate climatologically considering factors known to control mangrove distributions. We compare four widely used global mangrove distribution maps - the World Atlas of Mangroves, the World Atlas of Mangroves 2, the Global Distribution of Mangroves, the Global Mangrove Watch. We examine differences in climate among 21 range limit positions by analysing a set of bioclimatic variables that have been commonly related to the distribution of mangroves. Global mangrove maps show important discrepancies in the position of poleward range limits. Latitudinal differences between mangrove range limits in the datasets exceed 5°, 7° and 10° in western North America, western Australia and northern West Africa, respectively. In some range limit areas, such as Japan, discrepancies in the position of mangrove range limits in different datasets correspond to differences exceeding 600 mm in annual precipitation and > 10 °C in the minimum temperature of the coldest month. We conclude that dissimilarities in mapping mangrove range limits in different parts of the world can jeopardise inferences of climatic thresholds. We expect that global mapping efforts should prioritise the position of range limits with greater accuracy, ideally combining data from field-based surveys and very high-resolution remote sensing data. An accurate representation of range limits will contribute to better predicting mangrove range dynamics and shifts in response to climate change.

Mangrove expansion at poleward range limits in North and South America: Late-Holocene climate variability or anthropocene global warming?

Mangroves are expanding poleward in North and South America, but it is unclear whether such ecotonal-shift is an Industrial-Era phenomenon, or a recurring occurrence tied to Holocene climate variability. Our multi-proxy and remote sensing data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and southeastern Brazil suggest that the Industrial Era is the first time throughout the Holocene when mangroves were able to extend their distributions to the current boreal and austral range limits. A mangrove expansion of ∼1.3 ha (from 0.002 to 1.33 ha), 103 ha (from 23 to 126 ha), and 1.42 ha (from 0.39 to 1.81 ha) are documented at Bolivar Flats (Texas, U.S.A.), Mississippi River Delta (Louisiana, U.S.A.), and Apalachicola (Florida, U.S.A.), respectively, since the early 2000s, suggesting that mangrove expansion in North America is a 21st -century phenomenon and likely governed by warming winters. In contrast, the relatively slow mangrove expansion (from 96.1 to 106 ha between 2003 and 2019) at the austral range limit is controlled primarily by available habitats with suitable salinity and sediment substrate.

A Late-Holocene palynological record of coastal ecological change and climate variability from Apalachicola, Florida, U.S.A

This study uses radiometric dating, palynological, loss-on-ignition, and X-ray fluorescence analyses to reconstruct the vegetation history and coastal morphological changes at the boreal mangrove range limit along the Gulf of Mexico, based on three sediment cores taken from St. George Island, Apalachicola, Florida, USA. The multi-proxy record indicates that the mangrove stands in the vicinity of St. George Island were formed in the recent decades, and no signs of mangroves were found for the last 1500 years during the Late-Holocene in the sedimentary record. The current mangrove expansion at St. George Island is caused by the recent climate warming instead of a recurring phenomenon tied with cyclical global climate variability. Further analysis based on decadal-scale climatic and environmental records reveal that the accelerated sea-level rise and warmer winters, especially the decrease of winter freeze events in the 21st century, are the most plausible causes for mangrove expansion at their boreal range limit during the recent decades. Under the predicted warming trend and accelerating sea-level rise in the 21st century, it is reasonable to believe that mangrove encroachment into coastal marshes will accelerate at Apalachicola and other areas near their poleward range limits.

Coral-reef fishes can become more risk-averse at their poleward range limits.

As climate warms, tropical species are expanding their distribution to temperate ecosystems where they are confronted with novel predators and habitats. Predation strongly regulates ecological communities, and range-extending species that adopt an effective antipredator strategy have a higher likelihood to persist in non-native environments. Here, we test this hypothesis by comparing various proxies of antipredator and other fitness-related behaviours between range-extending tropical fishes and native-temperate fishes at multiple sites across a 730 km latitudinal range. Although some behavioural proxies of risk aversion remained unaltered for individual tropical fish species, in general they became more risk-averse (increased sheltering and/or flight initiation distance), and their activity level decreased poleward. Nevertheless, they did not experience a decline in body condition or feeding rate in their temperate ranges. Temperate fishes did not show a consistently altered pattern in their behaviours across range locations, even though one species increased its flight initiation distance at the warm-temperate location and another one had lowest activity levels at the coldest range location. The maintenance of feeding and bite rate combined with a decreased activity level and increased sheltering may be behavioural strategies adopted by range-extending tropical fishes, to preserve energy and maintain fitness in their novel temperate ecosystems.

Staying in place and moving in space: Contrasting larval thermal sensitivity explains distributional changes of sympatric sea urchin species to habitat warming.

For marine ectotherms, larval success, planktonic larval duration and dispersal trajectories are strongly influenced by temperature, and therefore, ocean warming and heatwaves have profound impacts on these sensitive stages. Warming, through increased poleward flow in regions with western boundary currents, such as the East Australia Current (EAC), provides opportunities for range extension as propagules track preferred conditions. Two sea urchin species, Centrostephanus rodgersii and Heliocidaris tuberculata, sympatric in the EAC warming hotspot, exhibit contrasting responses to warming. Over half a century, C. rodgersii has undergone marked poleward range extension, but the range of H. tuberculata has not changed. We constructed thermal performance curves (TPC) to determine if contrasting developmental thermal tolerance can explain this difference. The temperatures tested encompassed present-day distribution and forecast ocean warming/heatwave conditions. The broad and narrow thermal optimum (Topt) ranges for C. rodgersii and H. tuberculata larvae (7.2 and 4.7°C range, respectively) matched their realized (adult distribution) thermal niches. The cool and warm temperatures for 50% development to the feeding larva approximated temperatures at adult poleward range limits. Larval cool tolerances with respect to mean local temperature differed, 6.0 and 3.8°C respectively. Larval warm tolerances were similar for both species as are the adult warm range edges. The larvae of both species would be sensitive to heatwaves. Centrostephanus rodgersii has stayed in place and shifted in space, likely due to its broad cold-warm larval thermal tolerance and large thermal safety margins. Phenotypic plasticity of the planktonic stage of C. rodgersii facilitated its range extension. In contrast, larval cold intolerance of H. tuberculata explains its restricted range and will delay poleward extension as the region warms. In a warming ocean, we show that intrinsic thermal biology traits of the pelagic stage provide an integrative tool to explain species-specific variation in range shift patterns.

Does pollen limitation limit plant ranges? Evidence and implications.

Sexual reproduction often declines towards range edges, reducing fitness, dispersal and adaptive potential. For plants, sexual reproduction is frequently limited by inadequate pollination. While case studies show that pollen limitation can limit plant distributions, the extent to which pollination commonly declines towards plant range edges is unknown. Here, we use global databases of pollen-supplementation experiments and plant occurrence data to test whether pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges, using a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis. While there was significant pollen limitation across studies, we found little evidence that pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges. Pollen limitation was not stronger towards the tropics, nor at species' equatorward versus poleward range limits. Meta-analysis results are consistent with results from targeted experiments, in which pollen limitation increased significantly towards only 14% of 14 plant range edges, suggesting that pollination contributes to range limits less often than do other interactions. Together, these results suggest pollination is one of the rich variety of potential ecological factors that can contribute to range limits, rather than a generally important constraint on plant distributions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

A Comparison of Global Mangrove Maps: Assessing Spatial and Bioclimatic Discrepancies at Poleward Range Limits

A Comparison of Global Mangrove Maps: Assessing Spatial and Bioclimatic Discrepancies at Poleward Range Limits

Population level differences in overwintering survivorship of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus): A caution on extrapolating climate sensitivities along latitudinal gradients.

Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab sizes from both Great South Bay and Chesapeake Bay. We fit accelerated failure time models to our data and to data from prior blue crab winter mortality experiments, illustrating that, in a widely distributed, commercially valuable marine decapod, temperature, salinity, size, estuary of origin, and winter duration were important predictors of winter mortality. Furthermore, our results suggest that extrapolation of a Chesapeake Bay based survivorship model to crabs from New York estuaries yielded poor fits. As such, the severity and duration of winter can impact northern blue crab populations differently along latitudinal gradients. In the context of climate change, future warming could possibility confer a benefit to crab populations near the range edge that are currently limited by temperature-induced winter mortality by shifting their range edge poleward, but care must be taken in generalizing from models that are developed based on populations from one part of the range to populations near the edges, especially for species that occupy large geographical areas.

Cold water temperatures define the poleward range limits of south American fiddler crabs

Temperature increase due to climate change has caused shifts in the range distribution of several organisms globally. In coastal intertidal environments most organisms have an amphibious life cycle and their poleward range limits may be delimited by their thermal tolerance during the pelagic larval stages. Fiddler crabs are key species in intertidal environments and their early larval stages occur in coastal waters. We evaluated the mean and monthly minimum sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the South American coast and compared it to the minimum and maximum critical thermal limits (CTmin and CTmax) of the first larval stage of eight fiddler crab species to assess whether temperature delimits their distributional ranges. We found a clinal decrease in mean SST of 0.28 °C per latitudinal degree along the distribution of fiddler crabs in South America. Cold tolerance differed among the larvae of fiddler crab species, which corresponds to the latitudinal temperature gradient observed in their poleward range limits. Thus, our results suggest that cold water temperature can define the poleward range limits of South American fiddler crabs. The CTmax cannot explain the northern poleward range limits of the fiddler crabs. Fiddler crabs larvae showed a similar tolerance to high temperatures (mean 40.5 °C) regardless of species (except Leptuca uruguayensis) and these are higher than environmental temperatures observed in South America. We also observed an increase in mean SST of 0.9 °C in the last 37 years. This increase in water temperature may explain the recent poleward range expansion of one South American fiddler crab species, Leptuca cumulanta. Therefore, we showed that differential thermal responses at the early larval stage have consequences on the geographic range limits of the fiddler crab species. Our findings allow us to hypothesize that fiddler crabs’ poleward range limits may expand to higher latitudes in the future due to global warming.

Forecasting the Distribution of a Range-Expanding Bat Reveals Future Response to Climate Change and Habitat

Many terrestrial vertebrate species are exhibiting geographic distribution changes including poleward range limit shifts in response to increases in regional temperature. Bats are a highly mobile taxa capable of rapid responses to changes in abiotic or biotic conditions. In North America, recent extralimital records of the non-hibernating Lasiurus seminolus (Seminole bat) have been attributed to climate change, however such attributions remain speculative and potentially subject to sampling bias in the form of increased recent sampling efforts at latitudes north of the historical range. We used historical occurrence records and simple environmental variables within a Maxent modeling framework to model the historical distribution of suitable areas for this species. We transferred the model using near current environmental conditions and measured the ability of the model to capture the apparent expansion in distribution using recent extralimital occurrence records. Our model transferred well over time concluding that the distribution expansion may be largely attributed to increasing minimum temperatures. We used the model to forecast the expansion in distribution of suitable areas at three 20-year intervals and various climate change scenarios and provide extrapolation risk maps for each scenario. Although increasing temperatures may increase potentially occupiable areas, the species is associated with forests and often roosts in pines (Pinus spp.). This suitable habitat is more limited to the northwest of the species' range, which may constrain the future species expansion despite favorable temperatures. We demonstrated this effect by mapping limiting factors through future climate change scenarios. We discovered a broad shift of effects that constrained the distribution from minimum temperature to an abundance metric of evergreen cover type as time and climate change intensity increased. Although uncertainties exist, we predict further expansion of the Seminole bat widely over the next 60 years across the eastern United States where suitable habitat and climate conditions converge. Our results appear consistent with other bat species showing similar range extensions and in turn provide further evidence that bats may serve as bioindicators of global change.

Colonizations cause diversification of host preferences: A mechanism explaining increased generalization at range boundaries expanding under climate change.

As species' poleward range limits expand under climate change, generalists are expected to be better colonists than specialists, extending their ranges faster. This effect of specialization on range shifts has been shown, but so has the reverse cause-effect: in a global meta-analysis of butterfly diets, it was range expansions themselves that caused increases in population-level diet breadth. What could drive this unexpected process? We provide a novel behavioral mechanism by showing that, in a butterfly with extensive ecotypic variation, Edith's checkerspot, diet breadths increased after colonization events as diversification of individual host preferences pulled novel hosts into population diets. Subsequently, populations that persisted reverted toward monophagy. We draw together three lines of evidence from long-term studies of 15 independently evolving populations. First, direct observations showed a significant increase in specialization across decades: in recent censuses, eight populations used fewer host genera than in the 1980s while none used more. Second, behavioral preference-testing experiments showed that extinctions and recolonizations at two sites were followed, at first by diversification of heritable preference ranks and increases in diet breadth, and subsequently by homogenization of preferences and contractions of diet breadth. Third, we found a significant negative association in the 1980s between population-level diet breadth and genetic diversity. Populations with fewer mtDNA haplotypes had broader diets, extending to 3-4 host genera, while those with higher haplotype diversity were more specialized. We infer that diet breadth had increased in younger, recently colonized populations. Preference diversification after colonization events, whether caused by (cryptic) host shifts or by release of cryptic genetic variation after population bottlenecks, provides a mechanism for known effects of range shifts on diet specialization. Our results explain how colonizations at expanding range margins have increased population-level diet breadths, and predict that increasing specialization should accompany population persistence as current range edges become range interiors.

Reproductive phenology and seasonal mass dynamics of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) at their northern range limit

Intraspecific variation is common and can be substantial in species occupying large geographic ranges. For example, populations at a poleward range limit can be exposed to more severe and variable weather, resulting in more punctuated growing seasons and, consequently, large fluctuations in body mass and additional constraints on reproductive phenology. We monitored variation in these traits in a hibernating population of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus (Ord, 1815)) at their northern range limit across four growing seasons. Overall, individual body mass was highly dynamic both within and across growing seasons, and was correlated with sex, the presence of drought, and reproductive effort. This population experienced between-year variation in the timing of reproduction that was associated with weather variation. The influence of weather was particularly evident in 1 year during which a summer–autumn drought was followed by a severe and prolonged winter. This combination led to high overwinter mortality, substantially delayed emergences from hibernation, lower body masses at emergence from hibernation, and complete reproductive failure the following spring. Our results help to emphasize the influence of environmental conditions on levels of phenotypic variation at a species’ northern range limit, which may ultimately contribute to population viability and success.

Overwintering survivorship and growth of young-of-the-year black sea bass Centropristis striata.

Overwintering conditions have long been known to affect fish survival and year-class strength as well as determine the poleward range limit of many temperate fishes. Despite this known importance, mechanisms controlling overwintering mortality are poorly understood and the tolerance of marine fishes to the combined effects of winter temperature, salinity, and size is rarely quantified. In recent years, higher abundances of the temperate Serranid, black sea bass Centropristis striata, have been observed at latitudes further north than their traditional range suggesting that warming water temperatures, particularly during winter, may be facilitating the establishment of a population at more northern latitudes. To examine overwintering survival of C. striata, the combined effects of temperature, salinity and body mass were quantified in laboratory experiments. We identified 6°C as the lower incipient lethal temperature for C. striata, below which fish cease feeding, lose weight rapidly and die within 32 days. A short cold exposure experiment indicated that temperatures below 5°C resulted in mortality events that continued even as the temperature increased slowly to 10°C, indicating that even short cold snaps can impact survival and recruitment in this species. Importantly, fish in lower salinity lived significantly longer than fish at higher salinity at both 3°C and 5°C, suggesting that osmoregulatory stress plays a role in overwintering mortality in this species. Size was not a critical factor in determining overwintering survival of young-of-the-year (YOY) C. striata. Overwintering survival of YOY C. striata can be effectively predicted as a function of temperature and salinity and their interaction with an accelerated failure model to project future range limits. Identifying temperature thresholds may be a tractable way to incorporate environmental factors into population models and stock assessment models in fishes.

Host use diversification during range shifts shapes global variation in Lepidopteran dietary breadth.

Niche breadths tend to be greater at higher latitudes. This pattern is frequently assumed to emerge from the cumulative effects of multiple, independent local adaptation events along latitudinal environmental gradients, although evidence that generalization is more beneficial at higher-latitude locations remains equivocal. Here I propose an alternative hypothesis: that latitudinal variation in niche breadths emerges as a non-adaptive consequence of range shift dynamics. Based on analysis of a global dataset comprising more than 6,934 globally distributed dietary records from 4,410 Lepidopteran species, this hypothesis receives robust support. Population-level dietary niche breadths are better explained by the relative position of the population within its geographic range and the species' poleward range extent than by the latitude of diet observation. Broader diets are observed closer to poleward range limits and in species that have attained higher latitudes. Moreover, latitudinal variation in diet breadth is more prominent within and among species undergoing rapid, contemporary range shifts than for species with more stable ranges. Together these results suggest that latitudinal patterns in niche breadth represent a transient and emergent property of recent geographic range dynamics and need not require underlying gradients in selective agents or fitness trade-offs. The results have wide-ranging implications for global ecology and for anticipating changes in host use during ongoing distributional shifts of pests and disease vectors.

Weak genetic divergence suggests extensive gene flow at the northeastern range limit of a dioecious Ficus species

Genus Ficus (Moraceae) plays a critical role in the sustainability and biodiversity in tropical and subtropical ecosystems. Ficus species and their host specific pollinating fig wasps (Agaonidae) represent a classic example of obligate mutualism. The genetic consequence of range expansion and range shift is still under investigation, but extensive gene flow and subsequently low level of genetic divergence may be expected to occur among the populations at the poleward range limit of some Ficus species due to long distance gene flow in the genus. In the present study, we focused on populations of F. sarmentosa var. henryi at its northeastern range limit in southeast China to test whether edge populations were genetically fragile. Consistent with our hypothesis, high level of genetic diversity and weak genetic structure were revealed in Ficus sarmentosa var. henryi populations, suggesting extensive gene flow at the plant's range limit. Long-distance movements of both pollinators and frugivorous birds were likely to be frequent and thereby predominantly contributed to the extensive gene flow at large scale despite of some magnificent landscape elements like huge mountains.

A new macroecological pattern: The latitudinal gradient in species range shape

AbstractAimWe analyse the latitudinal variation of range shape, testing whether ranges at higher latitudes or of larger size tend to be elongated in an east–west direction, as expected from climatic niche constraints. Additionally, we assess whether poleward range limits are less stochastic than equatorward limits.LocationGlobal; all terrestrial areas except Antarctica.Time periodContemporaneous.Major taxa studiedBirds and mammals.MethodsWe quantified the shape of the distribution ranges of 10,057 species of birds and 5,411 species of mammals, and assessed the relationship of range shape with latitude and range size using generalized additive models. The observed pattern was compared with that predicted by a null model, in which species ranges were constrained only by the shape of the landmasses. Furthermore, we divided each range in two polygons and measured their separate perimeters, to compare the limits of the poleward and equatorward portions of each range.ResultsIn terrestrial mammals and birds, only species living at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and with large range sizes have ranges that consistently tend to be elongated in an east–west direction. The difference between observed and null range shapes increases from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics towards the north. The difference between equatorward and poleward semi‐perimeters was relevant only in the Southern Hemisphere, and it is probably explained by the shape of the continents.Main conclusionsThe existence of a latitudinal gradient in range shape is consistent with a different role of deterministic and stochastic processes in the tropics versus high latitudes. Specifically, the results are in line with a scenario in which tropical niche conservatism and relatively evolutionarily labile lower thermal tolerance increase the relevance of climate in determining range limits towards the poles, with stochastic factors (e.g., dispersal limitation) more relevant in shaping low‐latitude range limits.

A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: Assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion that climate change could pose for over 3000 plants and animals. Species were selected by their occurrence in England, the primary focus of the study, but climate change impacts were assessed across Great Britain, widening their geographical relevance. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors (e.g. dispersal, habitat availability and other constraints), was applied to 402 species, of which 35% were at risk of range loss and 42% may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit; the balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and an uncertain future.