Poleward Ocean Heat Transport Research Articles

2023 Record marine heat waves: coral reef bleaching HotSpot maps reveal global sea surface temperature extremes, coral mortality, and ocean circulation changes

Abstract Coral reefs, the most sensitive ecosystem to high temperature, are on the precipice of mass extinction from global warming [1, 2]. 2023 was the hottest year in recorded history on land and in the sea, with dramatic and unexpected temperature increases [3, 4]. Coral Reef Bleaching HotSpot maps provide unique insight into global ocean circulation changes in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing that caused dramatic global temperature rises [1, 2]. The highest excess daily air temperatures recorded in 175 countries, as well as the most prolonged excessive sea surface temperatures, were centered around Jamaica. 2023 marked the worst coral reef bleaching yet in the Northern Hemisphere, with the Southern Hemisphere poised to follow in early 2024. The HotSpot maps strongly suggest accelerated ocean poleward heat transport, slowdown in upwelling, and decreased deep water formation linked to sharply increased 2023 anomalous sea surface and air temperatures. The 2023 distribution of severe heat and bleaching follows both spatial patterns and temporal trends first shown from a baseline 1982–2001 global SST trend analysis [5]. Increased warming of both hot and cold ocean currents shows that horizontal mixing of tropical heat to the poles is accelerating, and that vertical mixing with cold deep water is slowing down, leading to increased ocean stratification, which will cause sea temperature to increase more rapidly and CO2 mixing with the deep ocean to decrease.

The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming

The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Cyclones modulate the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transports into the Barents Sea

The warm Atlantic Water transported into the Barents Sea plays a crucial role in winter sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and mid-latitude weather. The North Atlantic Oscillation is known to be an important driver for the Atlantic Water transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening. Here, we find that the dependence of the Barents Sea Opening ocean volume transport variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation is non-stationary. Our results indicate that for the period 1995 to 2005, the link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening temporarily weakened before an eventual recovery. During this period, synoptic cyclones with unusual trajectories as a consequence of pronounced atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic sector altered the large-scale and local wind patterns. This temporarily caused a state that the Barents Sea Opening transport variability is largely locally driven instead of being driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our study suggests that an adequate representation of both the North Atlantic Oscillation and cyclone activity is necessary for climate models to better predict future changes in poleward ocean heat transport and Arctic climate.

Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget

AbstractThe impacts of stratospheric ozone recovery on Southern Ocean surface and interior temperature, heat content, heat uptake, and heat transport are investigated by contrasting two ensemble chemistry‐climate model simulations in 2005–2099: one with fixed ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and another with decreasing ODSs. In our simulations ozone recovery significantly affects Southern Ocean temperature, with large latitudinal and vertical variations. Ozone recovery causes a dipole change of the full‐depth ocean heat content (OHC) with an increase south of 60°S and a decrease between 45°S and 60°S. Integrated over latitudes south of 40°S, OHC decreases in response to ozone recovery. This ocean heat loss is shown to be driven by weakened poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across 40°S, which is partly canceled by enhanced heat uptake. The weakening of poleward OHT into the Southern Ocean is caused by the ozone‐induced equatorward shift of the meridional overturning circulation.

Meridional Heat Transport in the DeepMIP Eocene Ensemble: Non‐CO2 and CO2 Effects

AbstractThe total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the early Eocene climatic optimum, a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analog to the upper range of end‐of‐century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations, at a range of CO2 levels are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non‐CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while oceanic poleward heat transport decreases. The non‐CO2 boundary conditions cause more MHT toward the South Pole, mainly through an increase in the southward oceanic heat transport. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the northern mid‐latitudes in the Eocene. The Eocene Hadley cells do not transport more heat poleward, but due to the warmer atmosphere, especially the northern cell, circulate more heat in the tropics, than today. The monsoon systems' poleward latent heat transport increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this change is counterweighted by the globally smaller Eocene monsoon area. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems' latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.

Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

AbstractClimate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. The added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.

The inhibition of warm advection on the southward expansion of sea ice during early winter in the Bering Sea

Recent observations demonstrate that the Bering Sea exhibits a substantial positive trend of sea ice area increment (ΔSIA, difference in SIA between the current and preceding months) in January contrasted to the considerable negative sea ice area (SIA) trend from 1979 to 2020, and the ΔSIA is unrelated to the local wind field anomaly. To better understand the January ΔSIA variability and its physical characteristics, we explore two distinct empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of sea ice concentration increments. EOF1 features a reduction in sea ice concentration (SIC) in the south of St. Lawrence Island. EOF2 is characterized by the rise of SIC surrounding St. Lawrence Island. EOF1 is related to the well-known physical process of December strong poleward heat transport in mixed layer depth. During the southward expansion of sea ice, the multiyear variation of the December SST tendency mostly relies on warm advection in the Bering Sea shelf rather than net air-sea heat flux, and the abnormal northeast wind in December no longer plays the role of a dynamic process dominating the ice area expansion, but generates a stronger poleward heat transport in the Bering Sea shelf to inhibit the southward development of sea ice in the later stage. The two physical processes together result in oceanic poleward heat transport regulating the Bering Sea SIA in competition with atmospheric forcing in early winter. Since PC1 (principal component (PC) time series for EOF1) has a high correlation of -0.76 with the maximum SIA in the Bering Sea, it can be used as the prediction index of the Bering Sea maximum SIA.

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models.

Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the “Arctic Ocean Amplification.” The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth’s regions most susceptible to climate change.

Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection

Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s.

Plio-Pleistocene Perth Basin water temperatures and Leeuwin Current dynamics (Indian Ocean) derived from oxygen and clumped-isotope paleothermometry

Abstract. The Pliocene sedimentary record provides a window into Earth's climate dynamics under warmer-than-present boundary conditions. However, the Pliocene cannot be considered a stable warm climate that constitutes a solid baseline for middle-of-the-road future climate projections. The increasing availability of time-continuous sedimentary archives (e.g., marine sediment cores) reveals complex temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene ocean and climate variability on astronomical timescales. The Perth Basin is particularly interesting in that respect because it remains unclear if and how the Leeuwin Current sustained the comparably wet Pliocene climate in Western Australia, as well as how it influenced Southern Hemisphere paleoclimate variability. To constrain Leeuwin Current dynamics in time and space, this project obtained eight clumped-isotope Δ47 paleotemperatures and constructed a new orbitally resolved planktonic foraminifera (Trilobatus sacculifer) stable isotope record (δ18O) for the Plio-Pleistocene (4–2 Ma) interval of International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1459. These new data complement an existing TEX86 record from the same site and similar planktonic isotope records from the Northern Carnarvon Basin (Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 763 and IODP Site U1463). The comparison of TEX86 and Δ47 paleothermometers reveals that TEX86 likely reflects sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with a seasonal warm bias (23.8–28.9 ∘C), whereas T. sacculifer Δ47 calcification temperatures probably echo mixed-layer temperatures at the studied Site U1459 (18.9–23.2 ∘C). The isotopic δ18O gradient along a 19–29∘ S latitudinal transect, between 3.9 and 2.2 Ma, displays large variability, ranging between 0.5 ‰ and 2.0 ‰. We use the latitudinal δ18O gradient as a proxy for Leeuwin Current strength, with an inverse relationship between both. The new results challenge the interpretation that suggested a tectonic event in the Indonesian Throughflow as the cause for the rapid steepening of the isotopic gradient (0.9 ‰ to 1.5 ‰) around 3.7 Ma. The tectonic interpretation appears obsolete as it is now clear that the 3.7 Ma steepening of the isotopic gradient is intermittent, with flat latitudinal gradients (∼0.5 ‰) restored in the latest Pliocene (2.9–2.6 Ma). Still, the new analysis affirms that a combination of astronomical forcing of wind patterns and eustatic sea level controlled Leeuwin Current intensity. On secular timescales, a period of relatively weak Leeuwin Current is observed between 3.7 and 3.1 Ma. Notably, this interval is marked by cooler conditions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. In conclusion, the intensity of the Leeuwin Current and the latitudinal position of the subtropical front are both long-range effects of the same forcing: heat transport through the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) valve and its propagation through Indian Ocean poleward heat transport. The common ITF forcing explains the observed coherence of Southern Hemisphere ocean and climate records.

Climate Sensitivity is Sensitive to Changes in Ocean Heat Transport

AbstractDo changes in ocean heat transport (OHT) that occur with CO2forcing, impact climate sensitivity in Earth system models? Changes in OHT with warming are ubiquitous in model experiments: when forced with CO2, such models exhibit declining poleward OHT in both hemispheres at most latitudes, which can persist over multicentennial time scales. To understand how changes in OHT may impact how the climate system responds to CO2forcing, particularly climate sensitivity, we perform a series of Earth system model experiments in which we systematically perturb OHT (in a slab ocean, relative to its preindustrial control climatology) while simultaneously doubling atmospheric CO2. We find that equilibrium climate sensitivity varies substantially with OHT. Specifically, there is a 0.6 K decrease in global mean surface warming for every 10% decline in poleward OHT. Radiative feedbacks from CO2doubling, and the warming attributable to each of them, generally become more positive (or less negative) when poleward OHT increases. Water vapor feedback differences account for approximately half the spread in climate sensitivity between experiments, while differences in the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks account for the rest. Prescribed changes in OHT instigate opposing changes in atmospheric energy transport and the general circulation, which explain differences in atmospheric water vapor and lapse rate between experiments. Our results show that changes in OHT modify atmospheric radiative feedbacks at all latitudes, thereby driving changes in equilibrium climate sensitivity. More broadly, they demonstrate that radiative feedbacks are not independent of the coupled (atmosphere and ocean) dynamic responses that accompany greenhouse gas forcing.

Different mechanisms of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice response to ocean heat transport

Understanding drivers of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice on multidecadal timescales is key to reducing uncertainties in long-term climate projections. Here we investigate the impact of ocean heat transport (OHT) on sea ice, using pre-industrial control simulations of 20 models participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In all models and in both hemispheres, sea ice extent is negatively correlated with poleward OHT. However, the similarity of the correlations in both hemispheres hides radically different underlying mechanisms. In the northern hemisphere, positive OHT anomalies primarily result in increased ocean heat convergence along the Atlantic sea ice edge, where most of the ice loss occurs. Such strong, localised heat fluxes (sim {}100~text {W}~text {m}^{-2}) also drive increased atmospheric moist-static energy convergence at higher latitudes, resulting in a pan-Arctic reduction in sea ice thickness. In the southern hemisphere, increased OHT is released relatively uniformly under the Antarctic ice pack, so that associated sea ice loss is driven by basal melt with no direct atmospheric role. These results are qualitatively robust across models and strengthen the case for a substantial contribution of ocean forcing to sea ice uncertainty, and biases relative to observations, in climate models.

Understanding Differences in North Atlantic Poleward Ocean Heat Transport and Its Variability in Global Climate Models

AbstractThe ocean heat transport from the North Atlantic to the Barents Sea impacts the sea ice extent and the energy budget of the Arctic. The analyzed climate models from the fifth (CMIP5) and sixth (CMIP6) phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project show large intermodel differences in the ocean heat transport with biases of several Terawatts at the Iceland‐Scotland Ridge and Barents Sea Opening (BSO). While both model generations show a large spread in mean volume transports, in CMIP6 temperatures are more homogeneous and realistic, yielding heat transports closer to observations. On all time scales, changes in heat transport reflect changes in volume transport, while temperature changes affect the heat transport variability on longer time scales, especially at the BSO. The temporal variability of heat and volume transports is linked to wind forcing south of Iceland and along the Norwegian coast in all models but has different magnitudes.

A hemispheric asymmetry in poleward ocean heat transport across climates: Implications for overturning and polar warming

The modern Indo-Pacific oceans absorb more heat from the atmosphere than they release. The resulting energy surplus is exported from the Indo-Pacific by the ocean circulation and lost to the atmosphere from other ocean basins. This heat transport ultimately sustains much of the buoyancy lost to deep water formation at high latitudes, a key component of the global overturning circulation. Despite the fundamental link between inter-basin ocean heat transport and global overturning in today's climate, there is no general understanding of how these phenomena vary with climate state. Here, we use an unprecedented suite of fully-coupled climate model simulations, equilibrated for thousands of years to a wide range of CO2 levels, to demonstrate that major differences in overturning between climates are related to systematic shifts in ocean heat transport between basins. Uniformly, equilibration to higher CO2 levels strengthens inter-basin ocean heat transport and global deep water formation. These changes are sustained by increased surface heat uptake within the Indo-Pacific oceans, and increased high-latitude heat loss outside of the Indo-Pacific oceans as the climate warms. However, poleward heat transport and high-latitude heat loss do not increase symmetrically between hemispheres. Between glacial and modern-like states, North Atlantic heat loss intensifies and overturning in the Atlantic strengthens. In contrast, between modern-like and hot climates, heat loss and overturning strengthens in the Southern Ocean. We propose that these differences are linked to a shift in the relative efficiency of northward and southward ocean heat transport — dominated by advection in the North Atlantic and eddy diffusion in the Southern Ocean — with climate state. Our results suggest that, under high CO2, future ocean heat transport towards Antarctica would increase disproportionately compared to its changes since the last ice age.

Magnitude of the 8.2\xa0ka event freshwater forcing based on stable isotope modelling and comparison to future Greenland melting

The northern hemisphere experienced an abrupt cold event ~ 8200 years ago (the 8.2 ka event) that was triggered by the release of meltwater into the Labrador Sea, and resulting in a weakening of the poleward oceanic heat transport. Although this event has been considered a possible analogue for future ocean circulation changes due to the projected Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melting, large uncertainties in the amount and rate of freshwater released during the 8.2 ka event make such a comparison difficult. In this study, we compare sea surface temperatures and oxygen isotope ratios from 28 isotope-enabled model simulations with 35 paleoproxy records to constrain the meltwater released during the 8.2 ka event. Our results suggest that a combination of 5.3 m of meltwater in sea level rise equivalent (SLR) released over a thousand years, with a short intensification over ~ 130 years (an additional 2.2 m of equivalent SLR) due to routing of the Canadian river discharge, best reproduces the proxy anomalies. Our estimate is of the same order of magnitude as projected future GIS melting rates under the high emission scenario RCP8.5.

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Abstract. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.

Reduced Arctic sea ice extent during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period concurrent with increased Atlantic-climate regime

Quantifying the contribution of poleward oceanic heat transport to the Arctic Ocean is important for making future sea ice and climate predictions. To highlight its potential importance in a warmer world, we present a new record of water-mass exchange between the Atlantic and the Arctic Oceans using the authigenic neodymium isotopic composition of marine sediments from the Fram Strait during the past ∼3.4 to 2.6 Ma. In this study, we target the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma) of the Pliocene epoch, the most recent geological analogue for future climate change. We complement our semi-quantitative water mass exchange reconstruction with estimates of spring sea ice concentration based on source-specific biomarkers. Our estimates of volume transport of warm waters into the Arctic Ocean suggest long-term secular changes from the lowest during the Marine Isotope Stage M2 “glacial” (3.312–3.264 Ma), to near complete “Atlantification” of the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean during the mPWP. Orbital forcing is found to be the dominant controlling factor for modulating northward volume transport of Atlantic-derived water masses, with an associated reduction in Arctic spring sea ice concentration of ∼30–35%. Current generation models often produce diverging results, however, and have not yet been validated against proxy data in northern high latitude settings during the mPWP. Our new results of northward volume transport and sea ice extent therefore provide much needed input for validation of current generation models aimed at improving the robustness of future climate modeling in the Arctic.

Early Eocene vigorous ocean overturning and its contribution to a warm Southern Ocean

Abstract. The early Eocene (∼55 Ma) was the warmest period of the Cenozoic and was most likely characterized by extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, we analyze simulations of the early Eocene performed with the IPSL-CM5A2 Earth system model, set up with paleogeographic reconstructions of this period from the DeepMIP project and with different levels of atmospheric CO2. When compared with proxy-based reconstructions, the simulations reasonably capture both the reconstructed amplitude and pattern of early Eocene sea surface temperature. A comparison with simulations of modern conditions allows us to explore the changes in ocean circulation and the resulting ocean meridional heat transport. At a CO2 level of 840 ppm, the early Eocene simulation is characterized by a strong abyssal overturning circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (40 Sv at 60∘ S), fed by deepwater formation in the three sectors of the Southern Ocean. Deep convection in the Southern Ocean is favored by the closed Drake and Tasmanian passages, which provide western boundaries for the buildup of strong subpolar gyres in the Weddell and Ross seas, in the middle of which convection develops. The strong overturning circulation, associated with subpolar gyres, sustains the poleward advection of saline subtropical water to the convective regions in the Southern Ocean, thereby maintaining deepwater formation. This salt–advection feedback mechanism is akin to that responsible for the present-day North Atlantic overturning circulation. The strong abyssal overturning circulation in the 55 Ma simulations primarily results in an enhanced poleward ocean heat transport by 0.3–0.7 PW in the Southern Hemisphere compared to modern conditions, reaching 1.7 PW southward at 20∘ S, and contributes to keeping the Southern Ocean and Antarctica warm in the Eocene. Simulations with different atmospheric CO2 levels show that ocean circulation and heat transport are relatively insensitive to CO2 doubling.

The potential impacts of a sulfur- and halogen-rich supereruption such as Los Chocoyos on the atmosphere and climate

Abstract. The supereruption of Los Chocoyos (14.6∘ N, 91.2∘ W) in Guatemala ∼84 kyr ago was one of the largest volcanic events of the past 100 000 years. Recent petrologic data show that the eruption released very large amounts of climate-relevant sulfur and ozone-destroying chlorine and bromine gases (523±94 Mt sulfur, 1200±156 Mt chlorine, and 2±0.46 Mt bromine). Using the Earth system model (ESM) of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) coupled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6), we simulated the impacts of the sulfur- and halogen-rich Los Chocoyos eruption on the preindustrial Earth system. Our simulations show that elevated sulfate burden and aerosol optical depth (AOD) persists for 5 years in the model, while the volcanic halogens stay elevated for nearly 15 years. As a consequence, the eruption leads to a collapse of the ozone layer with global mean column ozone values dropping to 50 DU (80 % decrease) and leading to a 550 % increase in surface UV over the first 5 years, with potential impacts on the biosphere. The volcanic eruption shows an asymmetric-hemispheric response with enhanced aerosol, ozone, UV, and climate signals over the Northern Hemisphere. Surface climate is impacted globally due to peak AOD of >6, which leads to a maximum surface cooling of >6 K, precipitation and terrestrial net primary production decrease of >25 %, and sea ice area increases of 40 % in the first 3 years. Locally, a wetting (>100 %) and strong increase in net primary production (NPP) (>700 %) over northern Africa is simulated in the first 5 years and related to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the southern tropics. The ocean responds with pronounced El Niño conditions in the first 3 years that shift to the southern tropics and are coherent with the ITCZ change. Recovery to pre-eruption ozone levels and climate takes 15 years and 30 years, respectively. The long-lasting surface cooling is sustained by an immediate increase in the Arctic sea ice area, followed by a decrease in poleward ocean heat transport at 60∘ N which lasts up to 20 years. In contrast, when simulating Los Chocoyos conventionally by including sulfur and neglecting halogens, we simulate a larger sulfate burden and AOD, more pronounced surface climate changes, and an increase in column ozone. By comparing our aerosol chemistry ESM results to other supereruption simulations with aerosol climate models, we find a higher surface climate impact per injected sulfur amount than previous studies for our different sets of model experiments, since the CESM2(WACCM6) creates smaller aerosols with a longer lifetime, partly due to the interactive aerosol chemistry. As the model uncertainties for the climate response to supereruptions are very large, observational evidence from paleo archives and a coordinated model intercomparison would help to improve our understanding of the climate and environment response.