Polar Stratospheric Ozone Research Articles

Emulating lateral gravity wave propagation in a global chemistry–climate model (EMAC v2.55.2) through horizontal flux redistribution

Abstract. The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) parameterisations in weather and climate models has been identified as a potential reason for dynamical biases in middle-atmospheric dynamics. For example, GW momentum flux (GWMF) discrepancies between models and observations at 60∘ S arising through the lack of horizontal orographic GW propagation are suspected to cause deficiencies in representing the Antarctic polar vortex. However, due to the decomposition of the model domains onto different computing tasks for parallelisation, communication between horizontal grid boxes is computationally extremely expensive, making horizontal propagation of GWs unfeasible for global chemistry–climate simulations. To overcome this issue, we present a simplified solution to approximate horizontal GW propagation through redistribution of the GWMF at one single altitude by means of tailor-made redistribution maps. To generate the global redistribution maps averaged for each grid box, we use a parameterisation describing orography as a set of mountain ridges with specified location, orientation and height combined with a ray-tracing model describing lateral propagation of so-generated mountain waves. In the global chemistry–climate model (CCM) EMAC (ECHAM MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry), these maps then allow us to redistribute the GW momentum flux horizontally at one level, obtaining an affordable overhead of computing resources. The results of our simulations show GWMF and drag patterns that are horizontally more spread out than with the purely columnar approach; GWs are now also present above the ocean and regions without mountains. In this paper, we provide a detailed description of how the redistribution maps are computed and how the GWMF redistribution is implemented in the CCM. Moreover, an analysis shows why 15 km is the ideal altitude for the redistribution. First results with the redistributed orographic GWMF provide clear evidence that the redistributed GW drag in the Southern Hemisphere has the potential to modify and improve Antarctic polar vortex dynamics, thereby paving the way for enhanced credibility of CCM simulations and projections of polar stratospheric ozone.

Infrared transmittance spectra of polar stratospheric clouds

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are responsible for polar ozone depletion. Infrared transmittance spectra of PSCs recorded by the Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) on the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite were used to determine the composition and properties of PSCs. These unique broad band infrared spectra identify PSCs as nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), supercooled ternary solutions (STS) of nitric and sulfuric acid, and ice, as expected. Quantitative modeling of these PSC spectra shows that supercooled nitric acid (SNA) is also common, i.e., “STS” with no observable sulfuric acid in their infrared spectra. ACE-FTS observations therefore classify PSCs into 4 basic spectral types, NAT, STS, SNA and ice, as well as their mixtures. As an example, this classification scheme was applied to the Antarctic for July to September 2019. The composition and particularly the phase of PSCs are critical to the understanding and detailed chemical modeling of polar stratospheric ozone depletion.

Zonally asymmetric influences of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), as the dominant mode in the equatorial stratosphere, modulates the dynamical circulation and the distribution of trace gases in the stratosphere. While the zonal mean QBO signals in stratospheric ozone have been relatively well documented, the zonal (longitudinal) differences in the QBO ozone signals have been less studied. Using satellite-based total column ozone (TCO) data from 1979 to 2020, zonal mean ozone data from 1984 to 2020, three-dimensional (3-D) ozone data from 2002 to 2020, and ERA5 reanalysis and model simulations from 1979 to 2020, we demonstrate that the influences of the QBO (using a QBO index at 20 hPa) on stratospheric ozone are zonally asymmetric. The global distribution of stratospheric ozone varies significantly during different QBO phases. During QBO westerly (QBOW) phases, the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high in the tropics, while in the subtropics they are anomalously low over most of the areas, especially during the winter–spring of the respective hemisphere. This confirms the results from previous studies. In the polar region, the TCO and stratospheric ozone (50–10 hPa) anomalies are seasonally dependent and zonally asymmetric. During boreal winter (December–February, DJF), positive anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are evident during QBOW over the regions from North America to the North Atlantic (120∘ W–30∘ E), while significant negative anomalies exist over other longitudes in the Arctic. In boreal autumn (September–November, SON), the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high from Greenland to Eurasia (60∘ W–120∘ E) but anomalously low in other regions over the Arctic. Weak positive TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies exist over the South America sector (90∘ W–30∘ E) of the Antarctic, while negative anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are seen in other longitudes. The consistent features of TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies indicate that the QBO signals in TCO are mainly determined by the stratospheric ozone variations. Analysis of meteorological conditions indicates that the QBO ozone perturbations are mainly caused by dynamical transport and also influenced by chemical reactions associated with the corresponding temperature changes. QBO affects the geopotential height and the polar vortex and subsequently the transport of ozone-rich air from lower latitudes to the polar region, which therefore influences the ozone concentrations over the polar region. The geopotential height anomalies associated with QBO (QBOW–QBOE) are zonally asymmetric with clear wave number 1 features, which indicates that QBO influences the polar vortex and stratospheric ozone mainly by modifying the wave number 1 activities.

The influence of energetic particle precipitation on Antarctic stratospheric chlorine and ozone over the 20th century

Abstract. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions in the latter part of the 20th century reduced stratospheric ozone abundance substantially, especially in the Antarctic region. Simultaneously, polar stratospheric ozone is also destroyed catalytically by nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) descending from the mesosphere and the lower thermosphere during winter. These are produced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP) linked to solar activity and space weather. Active chlorine (ClOx = Cl + ClO) can also react mutually with EPP-produced NOx or hydrogen oxides (HOx) and transform both reactive agents into reservoir gases, chlorine nitrate or hydrogen chloride, which buffer ozone destruction by all these agents. We study the interaction between EPP-produced NOx, ClO and ozone over the 20th century by using free-running climate simulations of the chemistry–climate model SOCOL3-MPIOM. A substantial increase of NOx descending to the polar stratosphere is found during winter, which causes ozone depletion in the upper and mid-stratosphere. However, in the Antarctic mid-stratosphere, the EPP-induced ozone depletion became less efficient after the 1960s, especially during springtime. Simultaneously, a significant decrease in stratospheric ClO and an increase in hydrogen chloride – and partly chlorine nitrate between 10–30 hPa – can be ascribed to EPP forcing. Hence, the interaction between EPP-produced NOx/HOx and ClO likely suppressed the ozone depletion, due to both EPP and ClO at these altitudes. Furthermore, at the end of the century, a significant ClO increase and ozone decrease were obtained at 100 hPa altitude during winter and spring. This lower stratosphere response shows that EPP can influence the activation of chlorine from reservoir gases on polar stratospheric clouds, thus modulating chemical processes important for ozone hole formation. Our results show that EPP has been a significant modulator of reactive chlorine in the Antarctic stratosphere during the CFC era. With the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric chlorine is estimated to return to pre-CFC era levels after 2050. Thus, we expect increased efficiency of chemical ozone destruction by EPP-NOx in the Antarctic upper and mid-stratosphere over coming decades. The future lower stratosphere ozone response by EPP is more uncertain.

Antarctic ozone hole modifies iodine geochemistry on the Antarctic Plateau

Polar stratospheric ozone has decreased since the 1970s due to anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and halons, resulting in the formation of an ozone hole over Antarctica. The effects of the ozone hole and the associated increase in incoming UV radiation on terrestrial and marine ecosystems are well established; however, the impact on geochemical cycles of ice photoactive elements, such as iodine, remains mostly unexplored. Here, we present the first iodine record from the inner Antarctic Plateau (Dome C) that covers approximately the last 212 years (1800-2012 CE). Our results show that the iodine concentration in ice remained constant during the pre-ozone hole period (1800-1974 CE) but has declined twofold since the onset of the ozone hole era (~1975 CE), closely tracking the total ozone evolution over Antarctica. Based on ice core observations, laboratory measurements and chemistry-climate model simulations, we propose that the iodine decrease since ~1975 is caused by enhanced iodine re-emission from snowpack due to the ozone hole-driven increase in UV radiation reaching the Antarctic Plateau. These findings suggest the potential for ice core iodine records from the inner Antarctic Plateau to be as an archive for past stratospheric ozone trends.

Is our dynamical understanding of the circulation changes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole sensitive to the choice of reanalysis dataset?

Abstract. This study quantifies differences among four widely used atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2, and CFSR) in their representation of the dynamical changes induced by springtime polar stratospheric ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere from 1980 to 2001. The intercomparison is undertaken as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The reanalyses are generally in good agreement in their representation of the strengthening of the lower stratospheric polar vortex during the austral spring–summer season, associated with reduced radiative heating due to ozone loss, as well as the descent of anomalously strong westerly winds into the troposphere during summer and the subsequent poleward displacement and intensification of the polar front jet. Differences in the trends in zonal wind between the reanalyses are generally small compared to the mean trends. The exception is CFSR, which exhibits greater disagreement compared to the other three reanalysis datasets, with stronger westerly winds in the lower stratosphere in spring and a larger poleward displacement of the tropospheric westerly jet in summer. The dynamical changes associated with the ozone hole are examined by investigating the momentum budget and then the eddy heat and momentum fluxes in terms of planetary- and synoptic-scale Rossby wave contributions. The dynamical changes are consistently represented across the reanalyses and support our dynamical understanding of the response of the coupled stratosphere–troposphere system to the ozone hole. Although our results suggest a high degree of consistency across the four reanalysis datasets in the representation of these dynamical changes, there are larger differences in the wave forcing, residual circulation, and eddy propagation changes compared to the zonal wind trends. In particular, there is a noticeable disparity in these trends in CFSR compared to the other three reanalyses, while the best agreement is found between ERA5 and JRA-55. Greater uncertainty in the components of the momentum budget, as opposed to mean circulation, suggests that the zonal wind is better constrained by the assimilation of observations compared to the wave forcing, residual circulation, and eddy momentum and heat fluxes, which are more dependent on the model-based forecasts that can differ between reanalyses. Looking forward, however, these findings give us confidence that reanalysis datasets can be used to assess changes associated with the ongoing recovery of stratospheric ozone.

Polar stratospheric clouds initiated by mountain waves in a global chemistry–climate model: a missing piece in fully modelling polar stratospheric ozone depletion

Abstract. An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. These enable stratospheric temperatures to fall below the threshold value for PSC formation in regions of negative temperature perturbations or cooling phases induced by the waves even if the synoptic-scale temperatures are too high. However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in global chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate in detail the episodic and localised wintertime stratospheric cooling events produced over the Antarctic Peninsula by a parameterisation of mountain-wave-induced temperature fluctuations inserted into a 30-year run of the global chemistry–climate configuration of the UM-UKCA (Unified Model – United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol) model. Comparison of the probability distribution of the parameterised cooling phases with those derived from climatologies of satellite-derived AIRS brightness temperature measurements and high-resolution radiosonde temperature soundings from Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula shows that they broadly agree with the AIRS observations and agree well with the radiosonde observations, particularly in both cases for the “cold tails” of the distributions. It is further shown that adding the parameterised cooling phase to the resolved and synoptic-scale temperatures in the UM-UKCA model results in a considerable increase in the number of instances when minimum temperatures fall below the formation temperature for PSCs made from ice water during late austral autumn and early austral winter and early austral spring, and without the additional cooling phase the temperature rarely falls below the ice frost point temperature above the Antarctic Peninsula in the model. Similarly, it was found that the formation potential for PSCs made from ice water was many times larger if the additional cooling is included. For PSCs made from nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles it was only during October that the additional cooling is required for temperatures to fall below the NAT formation temperature threshold (despite more NAT PSCs occurring during other months). The additional cooling phases also resulted in an increase in the surface area density of NAT particles throughout the winter and early spring, which is important for chlorine activation. The parameterisation scheme was finally shown to make substantial differences to the distribution of total column ozone during October, resulting from a shift in the position of the polar vortex.

Impact of Interannual Ozone Variations on the Downward Coupling of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Warming

AbstractThe Southern Hemisphere experienced its first recorded major sudden stratospheric warming during September 2002, which subsequently resulted in strong low polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (low SAM) and extreme daily mean maximum temperatures and low rainfall over eastern Australia during October 2002. The warming and weakening of the polar vortex were accompanied by anomalously high values of polar stratospheric ozone, which possibly could have constructively sustained the weakened vortex and subsequent development of low SAM. We explore the impact of this ozone variation by conducting an idealized forecast experiment using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational subseasonal to seasonal prediction system (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator‐Seasonal forecast system version 1, ACCESS‐S1), whose atmospheric model well resolves the stratosphere. The ACCESS‐S1 control forecasts are generated with prescribed climatological monthly mean ozone, whereas the observed monthly mean ozone during 2002 is prescribed during the forecast for the experiment. While the control forecasts initialized on 1 August 2002 demonstrate good skill in predicting the weakening of the polar vortex and the resultant occurrence of low SAM during October, the extremity of the SAM anomaly and associated extreme high temperatures and low rainfall over eastern Australia were significantly underpredicted. Prescribing the observed ozone results in more realistic weakening of the stratospheric vortex and stronger development of low SAM and extreme warm conditions in eastern Australia during October 2002. These results suggest that polar stratospheric ozone variations are a potential source of long lead climate variability, which can be tapped with future ACCESS‐S development.

Stratospheric ozone loss in the Arctic winters between 2005 and 2013 derived with ACE-FTS measurements

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone loss inside the Arctic polar vortex for the winters between 2004–2005 and 2012–2013 has been quantified using measurements from the space-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). For the first time, an evaluation has been performed of six different ozone loss estimation methods based on the same single observational dataset to determine the Arctic ozone loss (mixing ratio loss profiles and the partial-column ozone losses between 380 and 550 K). The methods used are the tracer-tracer correlation, the artificial tracer correlation, the average vortex profile descent, and the passive subtraction with model output from both Lagrangian and Eulerian chemical transport models (CTMs). For the tracer-tracer, the artificial tracer, and the average vortex profile descent approaches, various tracers have been used that are also measured by ACE-FTS. From these seven tracers investigated (CH4, N2O, HF, OCS, CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), we found that CH4, N2O, HF, and CFC-12 are the most suitable tracers for investigating polar stratospheric ozone depletion with ACE-FTS v3.5. The ozone loss estimates (in terms of the mixing ratio as well as total column ozone) are generally in good agreement between the different methods and among the different tracers. However, using the average vortex profile descent technique typically leads to smaller maximum losses (by approximately 15–30 DU) compared to all other methods. The passive subtraction method using output from CTMs generally results in slightly larger losses compared to the techniques that use ACE-FTS measurements only. The ozone loss computed, using both measurements and models, shows the greatest loss during the 2010–2011 Arctic winter. For that year, our results show that maximum ozone loss (2.1–2.7 ppmv) occurred at 460 K. The estimated partial-column ozone loss inside the polar vortex (between 380 and 550 K) using the different methods is 66–103, 61–95, 59–96, 41–89, and 85–122 DU for March 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Ozone loss is difficult to diagnose for the Arctic winters during 2005–2006, 2008–2009, 2011–2012, and 2012–2013, because strong polar vortex disturbance or major sudden stratospheric warming events significantly perturbed the polar vortex, thereby limiting the number of measurements available for the analysis of ozone loss.

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

Abstract. Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

The evolution and volcanic forcing of the southern annular mode during the past 300 years

ABSTRACTA positive change in the southern annular mode (SAM), which is the primary pattern of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere, has been induced predominantly by polar stratospheric ozone depletion. However, the lack of long‐term observational records limits our understanding of the long‐term SAM behaviour. In this study, we found that the geochemical record of the LGB69 ice core from the eastern coast of Antarctica was significantly correlated with the winter SAM index (SAMI). In addition, we developed an annual mean SAMI beginning in 1701 based on 15 annually resolved ice cores and relevant proxy–climate relationships. Our reconstruction accounted for 54.8% of the total variance from 1957 to 2000 (the calibration period). We demonstrate that the recent positive phase shift in the annual mean SAMI since the 1970s is unprecedented, with the estimate for the latest regime in the 1990s reaching values 2.5 times the standard deviation above the baseline (1701–2000). This peak value also coincides with the largest 30‐ and 50‐year trends, which have occurred at the end of the 20th century. From the reconstructed SAMI, we also found that the response to large volcanic events was likely positive in the 3 years after the eruption, but this positive response can be masked by internal climate variability when a strong El Niño event occurs in the eruption year.

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2)

Abstract. The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx), HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect caused by the original training on satellite data. Hence, the new version allows for an implementation into climate models in combination with an existing stratospheric transport scheme. Finally, the model is now formulated on several vertical levels encompassing the vertical range in which polar ozone depletion is observed. The results of the Polar SWIFT model are validated with independent Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations and output from the original detailed chemistry model of ATLAS.

How does downward planetary wave coupling affect polar stratospheric ozone in the Arctic winter stratosphere?

Abstract. It is well established that variable wintertime planetary wave forcing in the stratosphere controls the variability of Arctic stratospheric ozone through changes in the strength of the polar vortex and the residual circulation. While previous studies focused on the variations in upward wave flux entering the lower stratosphere, here the impact of downward planetary wave reflection on ozone is investigated for the first time. Utilizing the MERRA2 reanalysis and a fully coupled chemistry–climate simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1(WACCM)) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), we find two downward wave reflection effects on ozone: (1) the direct effect in which the residual circulation is weakened during winter, reducing the typical increase of ozone due to upward planetary wave events and (2) the indirect effect in which the modification of polar temperature during winter affects the amount of ozone destruction in spring. Winter seasons dominated by downward wave reflection events (i.e., reflective winters) are characterized by lower Arctic ozone concentration, while seasons dominated by increased upward wave events (i.e., absorptive winters) are characterized by relatively higher ozone concentration. This behavior is consistent with the cumulative effects of downward and upward planetary wave events on polar stratospheric ozone via the residual circulation and the polar temperature in winter. The results establish a new perspective on dynamical processes controlling stratospheric ozone variability in the Arctic by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.

WACCM‐D—Improved modeling of nitric acid and active chlorine during energetic particle precipitation

Observations have shown that a number of neutral minor species are affected by energetic particle precipitation (EPP) and ion chemistry (IC) in the polar regions. However, to date the complexity of the ion chemistry below the mesopause (i.e., in the D region ionosphere) has restricted global models to simplified EEP/IC parameterizations which are unable to reproduce some important effects, e.g., the increase of mesospheric nitric acid (HNO3). Here we use WACCM-D, a variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model which includes a selected set of D region ion chemistry designed to produce the observed effects of EPP/IC. We evaluate the performance of EPP/IC modeling by comparing WACCM-D results for the January 2005 solar proton event (SPE) to those from the standard WACCM and Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and SCISAT/Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) observations. The results indicate that WACCM-D improves the modeling of HNO3, HCl, ClO, OH, and NOx during the SPE. Northern Hemispheric HNO3 from WACCM-D shows an increase by 2 orders of magnitude at 40–70 km compared to WACCM, reaching 2.6 ppbv, in agreement with the observations. For HCl and ClO, the improvement is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere at 40–50 km where WACCM-D predicts a decrease of HCl and increase of ClO by 1.6% and 10%, respectively, similar to MLS data. Compared to WACCM, WACCM-D produces 25–50% less OH and 30–130% more NOx at 70–85 km which leads to better agreement with the observations. Although not addressed here, longer-term NOx impact of ion chemistry could be important for polar stratospheric ozone and middle atmospheric dynamics.

Comparing the Impacts of Tropical SST Variability and Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss on the Southern Ocean Westerly Winds*

Abstract Westerly wind trends at 850 hPa over the Southern Ocean during 1979–2011 exhibit strong regional and seasonal asymmetries. On an annual basis, trends in the Pacific sector (40°–60°S, 70°–160°W) are 3 times larger than zonal-mean trends related to the increase in the southern annular mode (SAM). Seasonally, the SAM-related trend is largest in austral summer, and many studies have linked this trend with stratospheric ozone depletion. In contrast, the Pacific sector trends are largest in austral autumn. It is proposed that these asymmetries can be explained by a combination of tropical teleconnections and polar ozone depletion. Six ensembles of transient atmospheric model experiments, each forced with different combinations of time-dependent radiative forcings and SSTs, support this idea. In summer, the model simulates a positive SAM-like pattern, to which ozone depletion and tropical SSTs (which contain signatures of internal variability and warming from greenhouse gasses) contribute. In autumn, the ensemble-mean response consists of stronger westerlies over the Pacific sector, explained by a Rossby wave originating from the central equatorial Pacific. While these responses resemble observations, attribution is complicated by intrinsic atmospheric variability. In the experiments forced only with tropical SSTs, individual ensemble members exhibit wind trend patterns that mimic the forced response to ozone. When the analysis presented herein is applied to 1960–2000, the primary period of ozone loss, ozone depletion largely explains the model’s SAM-like zonal wind trend. The time-varying importance of these different drivers has implications for relating the historical experiments of free-running, coupled models to observations.

A Match-based approach to the estimation of polar stratospheric ozone loss using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations

Abstract. The well-established "Match" approach to quantifying chemical destruction of ozone in the polar lower stratosphere is applied to ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Aura spacecraft. Quantification of ozone loss requires distinguishing transport- and chemically induced changes in ozone abundance. This is accomplished in the Match approach by examining cases where trajectories indicate that the same air mass has been observed on multiple occasions. The method was pioneered using ozonesonde observations, for which hundreds of matched ozone observations per winter are typically available. The dense coverage of the MLS measurements, particularly at polar latitudes, allows matches to be made to thousands of observations each day. This study is enabled by recently developed MLS Lagrangian trajectory diagnostic (LTD) support products. Sensitivity studies indicate that the largest influence on the ozone loss estimates are the value of potential vorticity (PV) used to define the edge of the polar vortex (within which matched observations must lie) and the degree to which the PV of an air mass is allowed to vary between matched observations. Applying Match calculations to MLS observations of nitrous oxide, a long-lived tracer whose expected rate of change is negligible on the weekly to monthly timescales considered here, enables quantification of the impact of transport errors on the Match-based ozone loss estimates. Our loss estimates are generally in agreement with previous estimates for selected Arctic winters, though indicating smaller losses than many other studies. Arctic ozone losses are greatest during the 2010/11 winter, as seen in prior studies, with 2.0 ppmv (parts per million by volume) loss estimated at 450 K potential temperature (~ 18 km altitude). As expected, Antarctic winter ozone losses are consistently greater than those for the Arctic, with less interannual variability (e.g., ranging between 2.3 and 3.0 ppmv at 450 K). This study exemplifies the insights into atmospheric processes that can be obtained by applying the Match methodology to a densely sampled observation record such as that from Aura MLS.

Simulated solar cycle effects on the middle atmosphere: WACCM3 Versus WACCM4

AbstractThe Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 (WACCM4) is used to quantify solar cycle impacts, including both irradiance and particle precipitation, on the middle atmosphere. Results are compared to previous work using WACCM version 3 (WACCM3) to estimate the sensitivity of simulated solar cycle effects to model modifications. The residual circulation in WACCM4 is stronger than in WACCM3, leading to larger solar cycle effects from energetic particle precipitation; this impacts polar stratospheric odd nitrogen and ozone, as well as polar mesospheric temperatures. The cold pole problem, which is present in both versions, is exacerbated in WACCM4, leading to more ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere. Relative to WACCM3, a westerly shift in the WACCM4 zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere and mesosphere, and a strengthening and poleward shift of the Antarctic polar night jet, are attributed to inclusion of the QBO and changes in the gravity wave parameterization in WACCM4. Solar cycle effects in WACCM3 and WACCM4 are qualitatively similar. However, the EPP‐induced increase from solar minimum to solar maximum in polar stratospheric NOy is about twice as large in WACCM4 as in WACCM3; correspondingly, maximum increases in polar O3 loss from solar min to solar max are more than twice as large in WACCM4. This does not cause large differences in the WACCM3 versus WACCM4 solar cycle responses in temperature and wind. Overall, these results provide a framework for future studies using WACCM to analyze the impacts of the solar cycle on the middle atmosphere.

Inclusion of mountain-wave-induced cooling for the formation of PSCs over the Antarctic Peninsula in a chemistry–climate model

Abstract. An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is from the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate the representation of stratospheric mountain-wave-induced temperature fluctuations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) at climate scale and mesoscale against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite observations for three case studies over the Antarctic Peninsula. At a high horizontal resolution (4 km) the regional mesoscale configuration of the UM correctly simulates the magnitude, timing, and location of the measured temperature fluctuations. By comparison, at a low horizontal resolution (2.5° × 3.75°) the global climate configuration fails to resolve such disturbances. However, it is demonstrated that the temperature fluctuations computed by a mountain wave parameterisation scheme inserted into the climate configuration (which computes the temperature fluctuations due to unresolved mountain waves) are in relatively good agreement with the mesoscale configuration responses for two of the three case studies. The parameterisation was used to include the simulation of mountain-wave-induced PSCs in the global chemistry–climate configuration of the UM. A subsequent sensitivity study demonstrated that regional PSCs increased by up to 50% during July over the Antarctic Peninsula following the inclusion of the local mountain-wave-induced cooling phase.

The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate

Abstract. The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss resulting from chlorine activation on polar stratospheric clouds is examined using a pair of model integrations run with the fully coupled chemistry climate model UM-UKCA. Suppressing chlorine activation through heterogeneous reactions is found to produce modelled ozone differences consistent with observed ozone differences between the present and pre-ozone hole period. Statistically significant high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) ozone loss begins in August and peaks in October–November, with > 75% of ozone destroyed at 50 hPa. Associated with this ozone destruction is a > 12 K decrease of the lower polar stratospheric temperatures and an increase of > 6 K in the upper stratosphere. The heating components of this temperature change are diagnosed and it is found that the temperature dipole is the result of decreased short-wave heating in the lower stratosphere and increased dynamical heating in the upper stratosphere. The cooling of the polar lower stratosphere leads, through thermal wind balance, to an acceleration of the polar vortex and delays its breakdown by ~ 2 weeks. A link between lower stratospheric zonal wind speed, the vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux, Fz and the residual mean vertical circulation, w*, is identified. In November and December, increased westerly winds and a delay in the breakup of the polar vortex lead to increases in Fz, indicating increased wave activity entering the stratosphere and propagating to higher altitudes. The resulting increase in wave breaking, diagnosed by decreases to the EP flux divergence, drives enhanced downwelling over the polar cap. Many of the stratospheric signals modelled in this study propagate down to the troposphere, and lead to significant surface changes in December.

Influence of projected Arctic sea ice loss on polar stratospheric ozone and circulation in spring

The impact of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art coupled chemistry climate model. Two 91-year simulations are conducted: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice for the late twentieth-century, taken from the fully coupled WACCM historical run; the other with Arctic sea ice for the late twenty-first century, obtained from the fully coupled WACCM RCP8.5 run. In response to Arctic sea ice loss, polar cap stratospheric ozone decreases by 13 DU (34 DU at the North Pole) in spring, confirming the results of Scinocca et al (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L24701). The ozone loss is dynamically initiated in March by a suppression of upward-propagating planetary waves, possibly related to the destructive interference between the forced wave number 1 and its climatology. The diminished upward wave propagation, in turn, weakens the Brewer–Dobson circulation at high latitudes, strengthens the polar vortex, and cools the polar stratosphere. The ozone reduction persists until the polar vortex breaks down in late spring.