Polar Meteorology Research Articles

Russian Research in 2019–2022 of Polar Meteorology

This publication is an overview of the results of Russian polar research in 2019–2022, based on paper prepared by the Commission on Polar Meteorology of the National Geophysical Committee for the National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences to the XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (Berlin, Germany, July 11–20 2023).

Russian Research in the Field of Polar Meteorology in 2019–2022

Russian Research in the Field of Polar Meteorology in 2019–2022

Results of Russian Studies of Polar Meteorology in 2015–2018

Results of Russian Studies of Polar Meteorology in 2015–2018

100 Years of Progress in Polar Meteorology

AbstractThe polar regions present several unique challenges to meteorology, including remoteness and a harsh environment. We summarize the evolution of polar meteorology in both hemispheres, beginning with measurements made during early expeditions and concluding with the recent decades in which polar meteorology has been central to global challenges such as the ozone hole, weather prediction, and climate change. Whereas the 1800s and early 1900s provided data from expeditions and only a few subarctic stations, the past 100 years have seen great advances in the observational network and corresponding understanding of the meteorology of the polar regions. For example, a persistent view in the early twentieth century was of an Arctic Ocean dominated by a permanent high pressure cell, a glacial anticyclone. With increased observations, by the 1950s it became apparent that, while anticyclones are a common feature of the Arctic circulation, cyclones are frequent and may be found anywhere in the Arctic. Technology has benefited polar meteorology through advances in instrumentation, especially autonomously operated instruments. Moreover, satellite remote sensing and computer models revolutionized polar meteorology. We highlight the four International Polar Years and several high-latitude field programs of recent decades. We also note outstanding challenges, which include understanding of the role of the Arctic in variations of midlatitude weather and climate, the ability to model surface energy exchanges over a changing Arctic Ocean, assessments of ongoing and future trends in extreme events in polar regions, and the role of internal variability in multiyear-to-decadal variations of polar climate.

Precise Forecast and Application of Time Delay Receiving Schedule for a New Generation of Polar Orbit Meteorological Satellite

In order to finely predict the receiving schedule of the new generation of polar orbit meteorological satellite time-delay data and solve the problem of rapid positioning of lost data, this paper studies and proposes the satellite data recording and satellite program-controlled program, and designs the delay data receiving timeline precision forecasting method. It is concluded that the detection load of polar orbit meteorological satellite in our country has developed from single load to multiple loads, and the detection data need to be downloaded to the ground for processing and application. And as the satellite load increases and the accuracy of each payload detection and channel increases, the amount of probing data will further increase, which in turn will require further increase of the speed of data transmission in the earth. Due to the limitation of the space data transmission frequency band, under the prior art system, the increase of the satellite data transmission rate is limited. On the basis of understanding the working principle of Fengyun-3, the new transmission system will be implemented in terms of data source compression, channel coding, modulation and polarization multiplexing by exploring new weather transmission systems for meteorological satellites in the future upgrade and at the same time analyze ways to avoid inter-satellite interference in order to solve the contradiction between the increase of data volume and the resource of terrestrial data transmission in the existing system.

South polar permanent CO2 ice cap presentation in the Global Mars Multiscale Model

The atmospheric influence caused by the Martian permanent south CO2 ice cap is examined to improve the Global Mars Multiscale Model (GM3) to see if it can significantly improve the representation of south polar meteorology. However, the seasonal carbon dioxide ice in the polar regions is presented in the surface ice simulation by the Global Mars Multiscale Model but the model does not produce a permanent south CO2 ice cap, and the physics code must modify to capture the realistic physical such as ice process detail; probably makes a bias in terms of total CO2 ice and meteorological processes in the model aside from ice formation. The permanent south CO2 ice cap in the model can significantly improve the representation of south polar meteorology for example in predicted surface temperatures, surface pressures, horizontal and zonal winds over the south cap and possible initiation of dust storms at south polar region during the southern summer period.

Polar meteorology: Results of Russian research in 2011–2014

A review of the results of Russian polar research performed in 2011–2014 is provided. It is based on material prepared by the Commission on Polar Meteorology of the National Geophysical Committee, Russian Academy of Sciences, for the National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences submitted to General Assembly XXVI of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics1 [1].

Sea Ice Enhancements to Polar WRF*

Abstract The Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Polar WRF), a polar-optimized version of the WRF Model, is developed and made available to the community by Ohio State University’s Polar Meteorology Group (PMG) as a code supplement to the WRF release from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While annual NCAR official releases contain polar modifications, the PMG provides very recent updates to users. PMG supplement versions up to WRF version 3.4 include modified Noah land surface model sea ice representation, allowing the specification of variable sea ice thickness and snow depth over sea ice rather than the default 3-m thickness and 0.05-m snow depth. Starting with WRF V3.5, these options are implemented by NCAR into the standard WRF release. Gridded distributions of Arctic ice thickness and snow depth over sea ice have recently become available. Their impacts are tested with PMG’s WRF V3.5-based Polar WRF in two case studies. First, 20-km-resolution model results for January 1998 are compared with observations during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean project. Polar WRF using analyzed thickness and snow depth fields appears to simulate January 1998 slightly better than WRF without polar settings selected. Sensitivity tests show that the simulated impacts of realistic variability in sea ice thickness and snow depth on near-surface temperature is several degrees. The 40-km resolution simulations of a second case study covering Europe and the Arctic Ocean demonstrate remote impacts of Arctic sea ice thickness on midlatitude synoptic meteorology that develop within 2 weeks during a winter 2012 blocking event.

Application of remotely piloted aircraft systems in observing the atmospheric boundary layer over Antarctic sea ice in winter

The main aim of this paper is to explore the potential of combining measurements from fixed- and rotary-wing remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) to complement data sets from radio soundings as well as ship and sea-ice-based instrumentation for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiling. This study represents a proof-of-concept of RPAS observations in the Antarctic sea-ice zone. We present first results from the RV Polarstern Antarctic winter expedition in the Weddell Sea in June–August 2013, during which three RPAS were operated to measure temperature, humidity and wind; a fixed-wing small unmanned meteorological observer (SUMO), a fixed-wing meteorological mini-aerial vehicle, and an advanced mission and operation research quadcopter. A total of 86 RPAS flights showed a strongly varying ABL structure ranging from slightly unstable temperature stratification near the surface to conditions with strong surface-based temperature inversions. The RPAS observations supplement the regular upper air soundings and standard meteorological measurements made during the campaign. The SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles agree very well and, excluding cases with strong temperature inversions, 70% of the variance in the difference between the SUMO and quadcopter temperature profiles can be explained by natural, temporal, temperature fluctuations. Strong temperature inversions cause the largest differences, which are induced by SUMO’s high climb rates and slow sensor response. Under such conditions, the quadcopter, with its slower climb rate and faster sensor, is very useful in obtaining accurate temperature profiles in the lowest 100 m above the sea ice. Keywords: Remotely piloted aircraft systems; unmanned aerial vehicles; Weddell Sea; polar meteorology; Antarctic; boundary layer meteorology. (Published: 8 October 2015) To access the supplementary material for this article, please see supplementary files in the column to the right (under Article Tools). Citation: Polar Research 2015, 34 , 25651, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.25651

Evaluation of Polar WRF forecasts on the Arctic System Reanalysis domain: Surface and upper air analysis

[1] The Polar version 3.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), a high-resolution regional scale model, is used to simulate conditions for the year December 2006 to November 2007. The goal is to compare model output of near-surface and tropospheric variables to observational data sets. The domain mirrors that of the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), an assimilation of model fields with Arctic observations being conducted partly by the Polar Meteorology Group of the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University. A key development in this Polar WRF study is the extension of the seasonal progression of sea ice albedo to the entire Arctic Ocean. The boundary conditions are specified by the NCEP Final global gridded analysis archive (FNL), a 1° × 1° global grid updated every 6 h. The simulations are performed in 48 h increments initialized daily at 0000 UTC, with the first 24 h discarded for model spin-up of the hydrologic cycle and boundary layer processes. Model large-scale variables of atmospheric pressure and geopotential height show good agreement with observations. Spatial distribution of near-surface air temperatures compares well with ERA-Interim despite a small negative bias in the station analysis. Surface dewpoint temperatures and wind speeds show small biases, but model skill is modest for near-surface winds. Tropospheric temperatures and wind speeds, however, agree well with radiosonde observations. This examination provides a benchmark from which to improve the model and guidance for further development of Polar WRF as ASR's primary model.

The possibilities of polar meteorology, environmental remote sensing, communications and space weather applications from Artificial Lagrange Orbit

The ability to observe meteorological events in the polar regions of the Earth from satellite celebrated an anniversary, with the launch of TIROS-I in a pseudo-polar orbit on 1 April 1960. Yet, after 50 years, polar orbiting satellites are still the best view of the polar regions of the Earth. The luxuries of geostationary satellite orbit including rapid scan operations, feature tracking, and atmospheric motion vectors (or cloud drift winds), are enjoyed only by the middle and tropical latitudes or perhaps only cover the deep polar regions in the case of satellite derived winds from polar orbit. The prospect of a solar sailing satellite system in an Artificial Lagrange Orbit (ALO, also known as “pole sitters”) offers the opportunity for polar environmental remote sensing, communications, forecasting and space weather monitoring. While there are other orbital possibilities to achieve this goal, an ALO satellite system offers one of the best analogs to the geostationary satellite system for routine polar latitude observations. A summary is given of the current on-going activities using composite satellite imagery over both Arctic and Antarctic regions. The use of both polar orbiting and geostationary satellite imagery together currently provide the best continental and hemispheric view of these regions, and provide an analog for what could be possible from an ALO satellite platform. How the composites are made as well as a brief description of applications is discussed. Potential user applications of environmental remote sensing from an ALO satellite platform are outlined along with critical space weather observations. In addition, the increasing need for communication and data relay in the remote polar-regions is reviewed along with an ALO satellite system potential capability to relay data from other satellite constellations. These current efforts foreshadow only a portion of the possibilities that are desired by the user community.

Review of China's scientific research progress in polar meteorology in the last 30 years

The Antarctic and Arctic are sensitive to global climate change; therefore, they are key regions of global climate change research. This paper, the progress in scientific investigations and research regarding the atmosphere in the polar regions over the last 30 years by Chinese scientists is summarized. Primary understanding of the relationship between the polar regions and global change, especially, the variations in time and space in the Antarctic and Arctic regions with respect to climate change is indicated. Operational weather forecasts for investigation of the polar regions have also been established. Moreover, changes in sea ice and their impact on the atmosphere of polar regions have been diagnosed and simulated. Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer of different underlying layers and changes in the atmospheric ozone in the polar region has also been experimented. Overall, there has been great progress in studies of the possible impact of changes in the atmospheric environment of polar regions on circulation in East Asia and the climate of China.

Polar meteorology: The results of Russian research in 2003–2006

This publication is a review of the results of Russian polar studies performed in 2003–2006. It is based on material prepared by the Commission on Polar Meteorology of the National Geophysical Committee, Russian Academy of Sciences, and included in the National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences to the XXIV General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Perugia, Italy, July 2–13, 2007.

Simultaneous MSMR and SSM/I observations and analysis of sea‐ice characteristics over the Antarctic region

Polar sea ice has been monitored quasi‐continuously over the last 30 years using passive microwave radiometers onboard three satellites in polar orbit, namely Nimbus‐5, Nimbus‐7 and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) series. A short overlap between Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus‐7 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) onboard DMSP allowed inter‐calibration of the two sensors leading to a consistent series of long‐term sea‐ice measurements since 1978. With the launch of Multifrequency Scanning Microwave Radiometer (MSMR) onboard OCEANSAT‐1 in the polar sun‐synchronous orbit during 1999, India developed the capability to monitor the polar sea ice on a regular basis. The concurrent availability of SSM/I and MSMR over the last few years presents a valuable opportunity to attempt an inter‐comparison of MSMR with SSM/I measurements and derived sea‐ice parameters. In this paper, we present an indirect validation of the brightness temperatures (T b) observed by MSMR with near‐simultaneous measurements from SSM/I over the Antarctic and Southern Polar Ocean regions. Simultaneous MSMR and SSM/I data from two contrasting seasons—summer and winter—for the 1999–2000 period have been used. Analysis includes a comparison of T b scatterograms to achieve confidence in the quantitative use of the T b data to derive various geophysical parameters, e.g. sea‐ice concentration and extent. Additionally, the T b images produced by the two sensors are compared to establish the capability of MSMR in reliable two‐dimensional portrayal of all the sea and continental ice features over the Antarctic Region. Based on a regression analysis between MSMR observed T b in different frequency channels and polarizations, and SSM/I‐derived sea‐ice concentration (SIC) values, we have developed algorithms to estimate SIC over the Southern Polar Ocean from MSMR data. The MSMR algorithms allow estimation of SIC with better than 10% rms error. MSMR SIC images faithfully capture the observed distribution of sea ice in all the sectors of the Southern Ocean both during summer and winter periods. Using the MSMR‐derived SIC, we have also derived monthly sea‐ice extent (SIE) estimates for a period extending for about 20 months from the beginning of the launch of MSMR. These estimates show excellent agreement with values derived from SSM/I. These analyses bring out the very high level of compatibility in the measurements and derived sea‐ice parameters produced by the two sensors.

The red sky enigma over Svalbard in December 2002: a model using polar stratospheric clouds

Abstract. An anomalous red glow due to scattered sunlight was observed at Longyearbyen (78° N, 15° E) on 6 December 2002 from 07:30 UT to 13:30 UT when the solar zenith angle varied between 100.7° and 104°. A model for this red sky event using sunlight scattered in a two stage process by Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) at 25km is presented and demonstrated to be feasible. The model requires a significant fraction of the polar vortex, which is cold enough for the formation of ice PSC, to be occupied with PSC with an integrated vertical extinction of approximately 0.037 at 845nm. Given these conditions, the model is able to predict, within an order of magnitude, the spatial distribution of intensities measured by meridional scanning photometers located at Longyearbyen across the visible and near infra-red spectrum. Keywords. Aerosols and particles; Transmission and scattering of radiation; Polar Meteorology

NWCSAF AVHRR Cloud Detection and Analysis Using Dynamic Thresholds and Radiative Transfer Modeling. Part II: Tuning and Validation

Abstract Algorithms for cloud detection (cloud mask) and classification (cloud type) at high and midlatitudes using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board the current NOAA satellites and future polar Meteorological and Operational Weather Satellites (METOP) of the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites have been extensively validated over northern Europe and the adjacent seas. The algorithms have been described in detail in Part I and are based on a multispectral grouped threshold approach, making use of cloud-free radiative transfer model simulations. The thresholds applied in the algorithms have been validated and tuned using a database interactively built up over more than 1 yr of data from NOAA-12, -14, and -15 by experienced nephanalysts. The database contains almost 4000 rectangular (in the image data)-sized targets (typically with sides around 10 pixels), with satellite data collocated in time and space with atmospheric data from a short-range NWP forecast model, land cover characterization, elevation data, and a label identifying the given cloud or surface type as interpreted by the nephanalyst. For independent and objective validation, a large dataset of nearly 3 yr of collocated surface synoptic observation (Synop) reports, AVHRR data, and NWP model output over northern and central Europe have been collected. Furthermore, weather radar data were used to check the consistency of the cloud type. The cloud mask performs best over daytime sea and worst at twilight and night over land. As compared with Synop, the cloud cover is overestimated during night (except for completely overcast situations) and is underestimated at twilight. The algorithms have been compared with the more empirically based Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Cloud Analysis Model Using Digital AVHRR Data (SCANDIA), operationally run at SMHI since 1989, and results show that performance has improved significantly.

Ozone and water vapour in the austral polar stratospheric vortex and sub-vortex

Abstract. In-situ measurements of ozone and water vapour, in the Antarctic lower stratosphere, were made as part of the APE-GAIA mission in September and October 1999. The measurements show a distinct difference above and below the 415K isentrope. Above 415K, the chemically perturbed region of low ozone and water vapour is clearly evident. Below 415K, but still above the tropopause, no sharp meridional gradients in ozone and water vapour were observed. The observations are consistent with analyses of potential vorticity from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, which show smaller radial gradients at 380K than at 450K potential temperature. Ozone loss in the chemically perturbed region above 415K averages 5ppbv per day for mid-September to mid-October. Apparent ozone loss rates in the sub-vortex region are greater, at 7ppbv per day. The data support, therefore, the existence of a sub-vortex region in which meridional transport is more efficient than in the vortex above. The low ozone mixing ratios in the sub-vortex region may be due to in-situ chemical destruction of ozone or transport of ozone-poor air out of the bottom of the vortex. The aircraft data we use cannot distinguish between these two processes. Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics polar meteorology) – Atmospheric composition and structure (middle atmosphere–composition and chemistry)

Evaluation of the transport in the Goddard Space Flight Center three‐dimensional chemical transport model using the equivalent length diagnostic

Transport and mixing in the extratropical stratosphere of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) three‐dimensional (3‐D) chemical transport model (CTM) are evaluated using the modified Lagrangian‐mean diagnostic. The normalized equivalent length squared (ξ) has been calculated from simulated N2O and CH4 distributions using two different wind data sets and has been compared with that calculated from observations by the CLAES satellite instrument. There is generally good agreement, indicating that the CTM realistically simulates the location and seasonal evolution of mixing regions/barriers in the extratropical lower and middle stratosphere. Differences that occur between the CTM fields and observations at high latitudes in winter and spring can be attributed to interannual variability in polar meteorology. There are also some differences in northern summer: the CTM series shows regions of high ξ in the extratropics that are not observed in ξ from CLAES. These high values occur where there is small‐scale variability in N2O in regions with very weak meridional gradients. Comparison of ξ from isentropic tracer simulations using the same wind fields as used in the 3‐D CTM show good agreement except during the summer. The isentropic tracers do not have as much small‐scale variability as the 3‐D CTM tracer fields, indicating that the enhanced small‐scale structures in the CTM N2O, and high values of ξ, are produced by small‐scale horizontal variability in the vertical motions. The fact that vertical motions can influence summer values of ξ means that these ξ fields cannot be interpreted in terms of quasi‐horizontal mixing.

Potential for estimating cloud liquid water path over sea ice from airborne passive microwave measurements

[1] In this paper we investigate the feasibility of determining cloud liquid water path from passive microwave measurements over sea ice. Simulations using a 32-stream plane-parallel microwave radiative transfer model indicate a consistent increase in brightness temperature attributable to cloud liquid water for conditions observed in the Arctic during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) experiment. Uncertainties in brightness temperature simulations due to variations in surface emissivity, surface temperature, cloud temperature, and atmospheric water vapor are investigated. Surface emissivity variations are found to cause the largest uncertainties in top-of-atmosphere brightness temperature over the range of liquid water paths examined. An algorithm previously developed for estimating liquid water path over oceans from SSM/I data is adapted for retrievals over sea ice. The algorithm is applied to brightness temperature measurements from airborne microwave radiometers. Mean retrieved liquid water path (LWP) is compared to in situ measurements from airborne cloud microphysical probes. The correlation coefficient for the two data sets is found to be 0.989 with an RMS error of 14 g m � 2 , although the retrieved LWP values show a high degree of variability. Accuracy is highest when LWP values are 100 g m � 2 and above. Poorest accuracies are obtained for small LWP (<50 g m � 2 ) where errors in the specification of surface emissivity have a large effect. These case studies provide evidence that liquid water clouds over sea ice produce detectable changes in microwave brightness temperature and suggest that interpretation of sea ice properties using certain microwave frequencies may be affected by the presence of liquid water clouds. INDEX TERMS: 0320 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Cloud physics and chemistry, 3349 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Polar meteorology, 3360 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Remote sensing, 3394 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Instruments and techniques; KEYWORDS: cloud physics, microwave remote sensing, arctic clouds, liquid water path, airborne measurements

On the origin of polar vortex air

Forward and backward three‐dimensional stratospheric polar vortex trajectory computations between fall and spring for each of the years 1992–1993 through 1999–2000 in the Northern Hemisphere and the years 1992–1999 in the Southern Hemisphere have been carried out. We find that the forward and backward trajectories give very different pictures of polar vortex descent. The backward trajectories show a complex distribution of parcels in which one population originates in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere and experiences considerable descent in the polar regions, while the remaining parcels originate at lower altitudes of the middle and lower stratosphere and are mixed into the polar regions during vortex formation. The forward trajectory calculations do not show this second population since the parcels in the forward calculation originate within the protovortex. The amount of descent experienced by the first population shows little variability from year to year, while the computed descent and mixing of the remaining parcels show considerable interannual variability due to the varying polar meteorology. Spring methane values reconstructed from Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) fall data and the back trajectories compare fairly well with typical HALOE spring values. These results imply that using a comparison between prewinter and postwinter tracer profiles to estimate the amount of descent over the fall‐to‐spring time period might result in unrealistically large values of descent, since the fall profiles are not representative of the same air as the spring profiles. Additional back trajectory calculations of descent in the lower stratosphere over 3‐month time periods from spring to midwinter show that very little mixing occurs at these times and altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during winters when the vortex is undisturbed, and in the Southern Hemisphere for all years studied. Thus, for this shorter time period, tracking constant mixing ratios of tracers within the vortex should give reasonable estimates of descent amounts, except for years when there are meteorological disturbances in the Northern Hemisphere.