Time-series Poisson Regression Research Articles

The ecological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime trends in Kerman Province of Iran

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted crime rates in Kerman province, Iran, revealing divergent patterns compared to global trends. This ecological study utilized the Poisson regression model and interrupted time-series Poisson regression model to analyze data collected from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization (ILMO) database and the Kerman Criminal Investigation Department of Police database, focusing on theft, conflicts, and homicide rates in this region. Our findings indicate that in 2020, the incidence rate ratio of conflicts increased compared to previous years. Before the pandemic, thefts were on the rise, while homicides were decreasing. However, with the onset of the pandemic, thefts initially decreased, and homicides experienced a notable increase. Subsequently, both thefts and homicides showed a declining trend. By the end of 2020, thefts were significantly lower than expected based on pre-pandemic data, while homicides were slightly higher. Initial fluctuations in crime rates may be related to quarantine measures and the challenges faced during the pandemic, while subsequent changes might be influenced by governmental interventions. Understanding the complex relationship between public health emergencies and criminal activities is crucial for informing policymaking and crime prevention efforts.

Long-Term Impact of the Bloor Viaduct Suicide Barrier on Suicides in Toronto: A Time-Series Analysis: Effet à long terme de la barrière anti-suicide du viaduc Bloor sur les suicides à Toronto : une analyse chronologique.

A suicide prevention barrier was installed at Toronto's Bloor Viaduct bridge in 2003. It was associated with short-term location substitution, possibly mediated by media effects that did not persist over 1 decade. The long-term impact of the barrier is unknown. We examined rates of suicides by jumping from the Bloor Viaduct, other bridges and by other methods using coroner's records in Toronto (1998-2020). We used interrupted time-series Poisson regression analyses to model changes in quarterly bridge-related suicides after barrier installation. A secondary analysis explored the potential substitution effects of suicide by other methods. Of 5219 suicides from 1998 to 2020, 303 were by jumping from bridges. After controlling for covariates, installation of the Bloor Viaduct suicide barrier was associated with a 49% step decrease in bridge-related suicide in the next quarter in Toronto (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.51, 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.86) with no rebound increase in bridge-related suicide during the subsequent 17 years after the original drop (IRR = 0.99, 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.03). There was also no associated change in suicides by other methods after the barrier (IRR = 1.04, 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.20). Contrary to initial findings, these results indicate an enduring suicide prevention effect of the Bloor Viaduct suicide barrier. They support the long-term utility of structural interventions at high-frequency sites for suicide.

Psychological distress among individuals with a suicide attempt or suicidal ideation and suicide attempts patterns: first two years of the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions may have led to increased stress, particularly in people with mental health problems. Since stress factors play important role in the emergence of suicide attempts (SA) and suicidal ideation (SI), they may have been exacerbated by the pandemic, which could have led to an increased number of suicide attempts. Thus, we first investigated whether the pandemic affected personal stress experiences and appraisal of coping potential in individuals with and without SA and SI. In a second step, we analyzed the frequency and dynamics of SAs by patients admitted to a psychiatric university clinic over a period of four years. We examined stress experiences and appraisal of coping resources of inpatients recruited between March 2021 and February 2022 with SA (n=38), SI (n=27), and with mood disorder without SA or SI (n=45). In the second study, we investigated the time course of prospectively recorded patients with a suicide attempt (n=399) between January 1st 2018 and December 31st 2021 using interrupted time-series Poisson regression models. There was a significant main effect of group (F[2,107]=6.58, p=0.002) regarding psychological stress levels, which was significantly higher in the SA and SI groups than in the psychiatric control group. No significant differences were found in the appraisal of coping resources or in the frequency of SAs before and during pandemic. However, the pandemic had a significant impact on the seasonal pattern of SAs. The pandemic increased psychological stress levels in individuals with SA and SI, which may be related to SI and do not necessarily result in SA. The pandemic did not affect the overall frequency of SA between March 2020 and December 2021, but interfered with the seasonal pattern of SA occurrence. Effective intervention strategies during a pandemic should include programs to strengthen the psychological resilience of people who are susceptible to mental health problems.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on marriage, divorce, birth, and death in Kerman province, the ninth most populous province of Iran

This study examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marriage, divorce, birth, and death rates using the Poisson regression model and an interrupted time-series Poisson regression model. Before the pandemic, marriage and birth rates were decreasing, while divorce and death rates were increasing, with only the trend in birth rates being statistically significant. The immediate effect of the pandemic was a significant decrease in the divorce rate, but there were non-significant effects on birth and marriage rates. However, in the months following the onset of the pandemic, there was a statistically significant sustained effect on increasing death and divorce rates. Forecasts based on pre-pandemic data showed that by the end of 2020, marriage, divorce, death, and birth rates were higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. In conclusion, the pandemic has greatly impacted society, particularly in terms of death and divorce rates. Birth rates were not immediately affected to the time lag between decisions and actual births. Fear of COVID-19 may have increased death rates as people avoided seeking medical help. Vaccination and effective treatment strategies are vital in reducing the pandemic's impact on mortality. Supporting families financially is important due to the role of economic issues in couples’ decisions.

Association between airborne particulate matter（PM 2.5） concentration and the incidence of allergic rhinitis in Shanghai

Objective:To explore the impact of PM 2.5 concentration in Shanghai on the incidence of allergic rhinitis（AR） in the population, and provide strategies for early warning and prevention of AR. Methods:Collect daily average concentrations of atmospheric pollutants monitored in Shanghai from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019, and clinical data of AR patients from five hospitals in Shanghai during the same period. We used a time-series analysis additive Poisson regression model to analyze the correlation between PM 2.5 levels and outpatient attendance for AR patients. Results:During the study period, a total of 56 500 AR patients were included, and the daily average concentration of PM 2.5 was（35.28±23.07）μg/m³. There is a correlation between the concentration of PM 2.5 and the number of outpatient attendance for AR cases. There is a positive correlation between the daily average number of outpatient for AR and levels of PM 2.5 air pollution（（P<0.05）） . We found that every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM 2.5, the impact of on the number of AR visits was statistically significant on the same day, the first day behind, and the second day behind, with the strongest impact being the exposure on the same day. Every 10 μg/m³ increases in PM 2.5, the number of outpatient visits increased by 0.526% on the same day（95%CI 1.000 50-1.010 04）. Conclusion:The atmospheric PM 2.5 concentration in Shanghai is positively correlated with the number of outpatient for AR, and PM 2.5 exposure is an independent factor in the onset of AR. This provides an important theoretical basis for AR.

A Quality Improvement Study Designed to Optimize Scheduling Geographic/Site Preferences Among Anesthesia Professionals Utilizing Decision Support Tool Assistance.

This is a quality improvement pilot study comparing percentages of anesthesia professionals receiving their first choice of workplace location both pre-, and post-implementation of an electronic decision support toolfor anesthesia-in-charge schedulers.The study evaluates anesthesia professionals who use theelectronic decision support tool and scheduling system at four hospitals and two surgical centers within NorthShore University HealthSystem. The subjects in the study are those anesthesia professionals that work at NorthShore University HealthSystem and are subject to being placed in their desired location by anesthesia schedulers who use the electronic decision support tool. The primary author developed the current software system enabling the electronic decision support tool implementation into clinical practice. All anesthesia-in-charge schedulers were educated during a three-week time period via administrative discussions and demonstrations on how to effectively operate the tool in real time. The total numbers and percentage of1st choice of location selection by anesthesia professionals were summarized each week using interrupted time series Poisson regression. Slope before intervention, slope after intervention, level change, and slope change were all measured over 14-week pre- and post- implementation periods. The level of change (difference in percentage of anesthesia professionals who receivedtheir first choice) was statistically (P<0.0001) and clinically significant when comparing the historical cohorts of 2020 and 2021 to the 2022 intervention group weeks. Therefore, the implementation of an electronic decision support scheduling tool resulted in a statistically significant increase in those anesthesia professionals receiving their first-choice workplace location. This study provides the basis for further investigating whether this specific tool may improve anesthesiaprofessional satisfaction within their work-life balance by enhancing workplace geographic/site choice.

502 The effects of removing the requirement for prior reimbursement approval on anticoagulant use in Ireland: A cross sectional study

Abstract Introduction Prior approval for reimbursement is a cost containment policy, aimed at reducing demand (1). It has been used temporarily in the Irish Healthcare system to deal with the initial financial challenges posed by the shift in use towards the Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACs) (apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban and dabigatran) from warfarin. Improved safety of DOACs use was a secondary aim of this policy. The use of prior approval policies is increasing in Ireland but studies assessing their effectiveness are limited. Aim To examine the effect of removing the cost containment policy of prior approval for reimbursement of apixaban and rivaroxaban using a national pharmacy claims database. Methods The Health Service Executive-Primary Care Reimbursement Service database in Ireland was used in this cross-sectional study. The prescribing frequencies and associated costs of the oral anticoagulants; ((OACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin) listed in the top 100 most frequently prescribed drugs on the Community Drug Schemes (CDS), between 2018 and 2021 were examined. Levothyroxine was used as a negative control to detect any external deviances in the prescribing data records. Interrupted time series Poisson regression was used to assess the impact of removing the approval requirement of apixaban in September 2019 followed by the other DOACs in November 2020. Results The prescribing frequency of OACs increased by almost 20% during the study period. Figure1 shows the prescribing frequencies of apixaban , rivaroxaban , warfarin and levothyroxine on each of the three community drug schemes – General medical scheme (GMS), Drug payments scheme (DPS) and Long term illness scheme (LTI) during the study period.Timelines at September 2019 and November 2020 show the removal of prior approval for apixaban and all DOACs respectively. This study showed there were significant differences in the proportion of OACs prescribed among the CDS. A statistically significant decreased use of apixaban (&amp;lt;1%, p&amp;lt;0.05) occurred when prior approval was removed for all DOACs. Conclusion The removal of prior approval for reimbursement of DOACs in Ireland had a minimal impact on the prescribing frequency trends of the OACs. Future use of these potentially useful policies by healthcare systems requires careful consideration of drug type, approval criteria and length of time the policy remains in place.

Suicide mortality in Spain in 2020: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

IntroductionSuicide constitutes a major concern with evident contribution to global mortality worldwide. Evidence on suicide trends is mixed in the COVID-19 pandemic era. Spain may be an at-risk country for increased suicide risk in the time of COVID-19 pandemic due to prolonged restrictions and lockdown, elevated COVID-19 wave recurrence and related mental health impact. This brief report aims to provide some insight into the suicide mortality trends in the first COVID-19 pandemic year in Spain, using national data. Material and methodsData from the National Death Index were used. Annual mortality rate was calculated at a province level under random-effects models for the 2019 and 2020 years. Poisson timeseries regression was used to study the relationship between monthly suicide mortality and COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and lockdown, and second COVID-19 wave peak covariates. Results3671 people died by suicide in 2019 in Spain and 3941 people died by suicide in 2020. The random-effects mortality rate in 2019 was 8.3 (CI95=7.6, 9.0) per 100,000 inhabitants, and mortality rate in 2020 was 8.9 (CI95=8.3, 9.6). No significant differences between mortality rates were found (p=.18). The Poisson regression showed a significant relationship between the COVID-19 outbreak and suicide mortality trend, with OR=1.07 (CI95=1.02, 1.12). ConclusionsAlthough annual mortality rates were not significantly different, an increased suicide risk was found from May, 2020 onwards. Our results claim for action to tackle suicide in the post-pandemic era taking into account the discouraging upcoming scenario.

A health systems intervention to strengthen the integration of tuberculosis and COVID-19 detection: Outcomes of a quasi-experimental study in a high burden tuberculosis district in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa.

The adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) detection have been well documented. Despite shared symptoms, guidance for integrated screening for TBand COVID-19 are limited, and opportunities for health systems strengthening curtailed by lockdowns. We partnered with a high TB burden district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to co-develop an integrated approach to assessing COVID-19 and TB, delivered using online learning and quality improvement, and evaluated its performance on TB testing and detection. We conducted a mixed methods study incorporating a quasi-experimental design and process evaluation in 10 intervention and 18 control clinics. Nurses in all 28 clinics were all provided access to a four-session online course to integrate TB and COVID-19 screening and testing, which was augmented with some webinar and in-person support at the 10 intervention clinics. We estimated the effects of exposure to this additional support using interrupted time series Poisson regression mixed models. Process evaluation data comprised interviews before and after the intervention. Thematic coding was employed to provide explanations for effects of the intervention. Clinic-level support at intervention clinics was associated with a markedly higher uptake (177 nurses from 10 intervention clinics vs. 19 from 18 control clinics). Lack of familiarity with online learning, and a preference for group learning hindered the transition from face-to-face to online learning. Even so, any exposure to training was initially associated with higher rates of GeneXpert testing (adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.15) and higher positive TB diagnosis (IRR 1.38, 1.11-1.71). These results add to the knowledge base regarding the effectiveness of interventions to strengthen TB case detection during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings support the feasibility of a shift to online learning approaches in low-resource settings with appropriate support and suggest that even low-intensity interventions are capable of activating nurses to integrate existing disease control priorities during pandemic conditions.

Immediate and Ongoing Impact of COVID-19 on Chlamydia Treatment in Australia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the sexual health and well-being of individuals, directly through risk of contracting COVID-19, and indirectly through government lockdowns. Government restrictions were especially strict and long-lasting in Australia, they also varied by state, offering an interesting opportunity to study the impacts of varying restrictions. This study compares the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting restrictions on chlamydia treatment prescriptions during 2020, through to July 2021 between different states and demographic groups in Australia. The rate of prescriptions per 100,000 population filled each month from January 2017 to July 2021 from Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme for Azithromycin with a restricted indication to treat Chlamydia trachomatis was used to measure chlamydia treatment. The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns was modeled using an interrupted time-series Poisson regression model. The data included 520,025 prescriptions to treat chlamydia, averaging 37.5 prescriptions per month per 100,000 population. Prescriptions declined 26% in April to May 2020 when initial COVID-19 lockdowns began in Australia; prescriptions increased in the following months but remained on average 21% below prepandemic (2017-2019) levels through to July 2021. Prescriptions declined the most in 1 Australian state, Victoria, both in the initial lockdown and the following period; generally, states with more COVID-19 cases saw bigger reductions in prescriptions. This is the first study to examine how treatment for chlamydia in Australia was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions not only in the immediate-term, but also ongoing up to July 2021, providing important information for planning for sexual health services in future pandemics.

The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece

It is well-established that exposure to non-optimum temperatures adversely affects public health, with the negative impact varying with latitude, as well as various climatic and population characteristics. This work aims to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, in Northern Greece. For this, a standard time-series over-dispersed Poisson regression was fit, along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), using a maximum lag of 21 days, to capture the non-linear and delayed temperature-related effects. A U-shaped relationship was found between temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality for the overall population and various subgroups and the minimum mortality temperature was observed around the 65th percentile of the temperature distribution. Exposure to extremely high temperatures was found to put the highest risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in all cases, except for females which were found to be more sensitive to extreme cold. It is remarkable that the highest burden of temperature-related mortality was attributed to moderate temperatures and primarily to moderate cold. The elderly were found to be particularly susceptible to both cold and hot thermal stress. These results provide new evidence on the health response of the population to low and high temperatures and could be useful to local authorities and policy-makers for developing interventions and prevention strategies for reducing the adverse impact of ambient temperature.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome prevalence and processing fluids use for diagnosis in United States breeding herds.

Processing fluids have been recently adopted by the U.S. swine industry as a breeding herd PRRS monitoring tool due to their increased representativeness of animals within the herd. Here, we use the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project (MSHMP) database, representative of ~50% of the U.S. swine breeding herd, to describe processing fluids submissions for PRRS diagnosis and their relation to PRRS prevalence and time to stability over time between 2009 and 2020. An ecological time series Poisson regression modeling the number of status 1 farms and weekly percentage of processing fluids submissions for PRRS diagnosis was done. Time to stability was calculated for sites that detected a PRRS outbreak within the study period and modeled through a proportional hazards mixed effect survival model using production system as a random-effect factor and epiweek as a panel variable. Processing fluids diagnosis submissions increased starting in 2017. The difference between each year's highest and lowest weekly prevalence averaged 10.9% between 2009 and 2017, whereas it averaged 5.0% in 2018-2020 period. Each year's lowest weekly prevalence ranged from 11.3 to 19.5% in 2009-2017 and from 22.4 to 29.2% in 2018-2020. We also detected an increasing proportion of breeding sites that did not reach stability within 1 year of reporting an outbreak (chi-square for trend p < 0.0001). The total time to stability was not associated with the region of the country in which the site was located, the site's air filtration status, its PRRS status before the outbreak, or the different statuses a site achieved to be classified as stable, when accounting for the production system in the multivariate model. However, a higher proportion of system-wide processing fluids use was associated with increased time to stability. Altogether, the temporal concurrence of processing fluids used for PRRS virus monitoring suggests that the adoption of this sampling strategy may help explain the changes observed in PRRS status 1 prevalence since 2018, although further studies are still needed.

The associated impact of standardized admission screening on vancomycin-resistant Enterococci bloodstream infections.

To determine whether discontinuing active screening for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) in Alberta, Canada, acute-care facilities had an associated impact on the rate of rise of hospital-acquired (HA) VRE bloodstream infection (VRE-BSI). Acute-care facilities in Alberta, Canada. All patients who were admitted to Alberta Health Services or Covenant Health acute-care facilities between January 1, 2013, and March 31, 2020, and who met the definition for hospital-acquired VRE-BSI were included in the analyses. An intervention time-series Poisson regression was used to determine the slope change in VRE incidence between the pre- and postintervention (screening) periods. The patient population was separated into 3 cohorts: group 1 (low risk, VRE screening stopped), group 2 (high risk, VRE screening stopped), and group 3 (high risk, VRE screening continued). For all groups, a level- and slope-change model was used. We did not find a statistically significant difference in the slope change or rate of rise in VRE-BSI before and after the intervention, with incidence rate ratio (IRRs) of 1.015 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.982-1.049), 1.025 (95% CI, 0.967-1.086), and 0.989 (95% CI, 0.924-1.059) for groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In Alberta, the rate of HA VRE-BSI has remained consistent, and our findings indicate that there has been no increase in the rate of rise of HA VRE-BSI in sites or units that discontinued screening for VRE, regardless of patient risk group.

Main and added effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations for Mental and Behavioral Disorders in a tropical megacity of Vietnam

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Vietnam is highly vulnerable to climate change-related extreme weather events such as heatwaves. This study assesses the association between heatwaves and hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). METHODS: We collected daily MBD hospital admissions data at the HCMC Mental Health Hospital from 2017 to 2019. Heatwaves effects were characterized into the main effect (i.e., the intensity of temperature during heatwaves) and the added effect (i.e, the duration of heatwaves). Time series Poisson regression coupled with a distributed lag linear model (DLM) was used to quantify the 14-day lags effect of heatwaves. Confounders including long-term trend, seasonality, days of the week, holidays, relative humidity were included in the model. RESULTS: Heatwaves increased all-cause MBD hospitalization by 62% (95%Cl, 36%–93%) for the main effect, and by 8% (95% Cl, -3%–19%) for the added effect. Noticeably, the group aged 18 to 60 years old was affected by the main effect of the heatwave, while the group aged 61 years and older was affected by the added effect of the heatwave. The effects of heatwaves differed among groups of MBD hospitalizations. The mental and behavioral disorder group due to psychoactive substance use was significantly affected by the main effect of heatwaves (RR:2.21; 95%Cl:1.55–3.15). The group of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders were highly vulnerable towards both the main and the added effect of heatwaves with RR=1.50 (95%CI, 1.20–1.86) and RR = 1.14 (95%CI, 1.01–1.30), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results aroused the need for adequate heat warning and adaptation programs when temperatures are not too high but prolonged, particularly with the elderly

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide attempts in a rural region in Germany, a 5-year observational study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic and public life restrictions may have a negative impact on people's mental health. Therefore, we analyzed whether this condition affected the occurrence of suicide attempts (SA) over 20 months during the pandemic period. MethodsWe included patient records according to DSM-5 criteria for suicidal behavior disorders (n = 825) between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2021. We applied interrupted time-series Poisson regression models to investigate the effect of the pandemic on SA occurrence, time trends, and seasonal patterns in the whole group of patients as well as stratified by age and gender. ResultsThere was no significant effect of the pandemic on the occurrence of SA in the overall group. However, we observed a significant impact of the pandemic on the seasonal pattern of SA, also the variance differed significantly (pre-pandemic mean ± variance: 13.33 ± 15.75, pandemic: mean ± variance: 13.86 ± 7.26), indicating less periodic variation in SA during the pandemic. Male patients and young adults mainly contributed to this overall effect. Subgroup analysis revealed a significant difference in SA trends during the pandemic in older adults (>55 years) compared with younger adults (18–35 years); SA numbers increased in older adults and decreased in younger adults as the pandemic progressed. LimitationsA few patients may have received initial care in an emergency department after SA without being referred to psychiatry. ConclusionsIn general, the COVID-19 pandemic and related measures did not significantly affect the occurrence of SA but did significantly affect the dynamics. In addition, the pandemic appeared to affect suicidal behavior differently across age groups as it progressed. Particularly for the older adult group, negative long-term effects of the pandemic on suicidal behavior can be derived from the present results, indicating the need to strengthen suicide prevention for the elderly.

Association between sequential extreme precipitation-heatwaves events and hospitalizations for schizophrenia: The damage amplification effects of sequential extremes

ObjectivesIn the context of frequent global extreme weather events, there are few studies on the effects of sequential extreme precipitation (EP) and heatwaves (HW) events on schizophrenia. We aimed to quantify the effects of the events on hospitalizations for schizophrenia and compare them with EP and HW alone to explore the amplification effect of successive extremes on health loss. MethodsA time-series Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to estimate the association between sequential EP and HW events (EP-HW) and schizophrenia hospitalizations. The effects of EP-HW with different intervals and intensities on the admission of schizophrenia were compared. In addition, we calculated the mean attributable fraction (AF) and attributable numbers (AN) per exposure of extreme events to reflect the amplification effect of sequential extreme events on health hazards compared with individual extreme events. ResultsEP-HW increased the risk of hospitalization for schizophrenia, with significant effects lasting from lag0 (RR and 95% CI: 1.150 (1.041–1.271)) to lag11 (1.046 (1.000–1.094)). Significant associations were found in the subgroups of male, female, married people, and those aged≥ 40 years old. Shorter-interval (0–3days) or higher-intensity EP-HW (both precipitation ≥ P97.5 and mean temperature ≥ P97.5) had a longer lag effect compared to EP-HW with longer intervals or lower intensity. We found that the mean AF and AN caused by each exposure to EP-HW (AF: 0.074% (0.015%–0.123%); AN: 4.284 (0.862–7.118)) were higher than those induced by each exposure to HW occurring alone (AF:0.032% (0.004%–0.058%); AN:1.845 (0.220–3.329)). ConclusionsSequential extreme precipitation-heatwaves events significantly increase the risk of hospitalizations for schizophrenia, with greater impact and disease burden than independently occurring extremes. The impact of consecutive extremes is supposed to be considered in local sector early warning systems for comprehensive public health decision-making.

Effecting the culture: Impact of changing urinalysis with reflex culture criteria on culture rates and outcomes

Background: Urinalysis and urine culture are frequently ordered diagnostic tests among hospitalized patients, often for nonspecific symptoms. Diagnostic testing stewardship with urinalysis with reflex culture (UARC) is a practice shown to reduce institutional culture rates by selecting patients who are more likely to have a true infection. Optimal reflex criteria are not well established, and downstream effects, such as antibiotic use, have not been well studied. Methods: We compared outcomes in the preimplementation period (December 2018 – October 2019) and postintervention period (November 2019–October 2020) at an academic medical center. The intervention was changing the UARC reflex criteria. The primary outcomes were urine-culture rate per 1,000 patient days, urine-culture positivity, antibiotic prescription for suspected urinary tract infection (UTI) and catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) rate per 1,000 Foley catheter days. Analysis was performed using interrupted time-series negative binomial regression or Poisson regression where appropriate. Results: We detected a significant decrease in the rate of cultures performed (32.5 cultures per 1,000 patient days before the intervention vs 8.6 cultures per 1,000 patient days after the intervention; P = 0.10). Fig. 1 summarizes these results graphically. In an adverse events analysis, of 646 patients in the postintervention period, 130 patients were reviewed for the outcome of sepsis secondary to a urinary tract infection, with only 1 patient meeting criteria for this diagnosis. Conclusions: Changing the UARC reflex criteria resulted in the expected decrease in rate of cultures performed with increase in culture positivity, and the stricter criteria appeared to more effectively identify true UTIs. Minimal adverse events were associated with the UARC criteria change, demonstrating that these criteria are also safe. We detected a significant change in antibiotic prescriptions, but much of the decrease occurred during the preintervention period, which likely reflected educational and stewardship interventions performed at that time. Although the intervention affected culture performance, which does decrease institutional costs, continued provider education is needed to influence clinical outcomes.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

Impact of the naloxone standing order on trends in opioid fatal overdose: an ecological analysis

ABSTRACT Background: Maryland expanded its “Statewide Naloxone Standing Order” (NSO) in 2017 to eliminate training and prescription requirements for obtaining naloxone, improve naloxone access, help reverse opioid overdose, and reduce overdose fatality rates. Objectives: To assess the change in the trends of fatal opioid overdose rates following the expansion of the Naloxone Standing Order (eNSO) and its association with the social determinants of health (SDoH). Methods: Data on overdose deaths and SDoH from 2015–2019 was collected and analyzed using interrupted time series and multivariate Poisson regression models to study the change in trends and the associations. Results: There was a significant decrease in the rate of fatal overdoses after the intervention: prescription opioid estimate number of deaths declined by .25 per 100,000 (p = .02), heroin estimate number of deaths declined by 1.83 per 100,000 (p < .001), fentanyl estimate number of deaths declined by 2.54 per 100,000 (p < .001). After controlling for eNOS implementation in Maryland, state-level estimates with high proportions of female residents and those with bachelor’s degree or higher were associated with reduction in overdose, while state-level estimates with high proportions of African Americans and higher employment rates were associated with an increase in overdose. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that the expanded naloxone standing order is associated with reducing opioid-related overdose death rates. Even though we observed a significant reduction in overdose death rate in fentanyl-related deaths, the rate of deaths post-eNSO was still increasing, suggesting the need for additional measures to impact the rates of fentanyl.

Main and added effects of heatwaves on hospitalizations for mental and behavioral disorders in a tropical megacity of Vietnam.

Vietnam is highly vulnerable to climate change-related extreme weather events such as heatwaves. This study assesses the association between heatwaves and hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). We collected daily MBD hospital admissions data at the HCMC Mental Health Hospital from 2017 to 2019. Heatwaves effects were characterized into the main effect (i.e., the intensity of temperature during heatwaves) and the added effect (i.e., the duration of heatwaves). Time series Poisson regression coupled with a distributed lag linear model (DLM) was used to quantify the 14-day lags effect of heatwaves. Confounders including long-term trend, seasonality, days of the week, holidays, and relative humidity were included in the model. Heatwaves increased all-cause MBD hospitalization by 62% (95%Cl, 36-93%) for the main effect and by 8% (95% Cl, - 3% to 19%) for the added effect. Noticeably, the group aged 18-60years old was affected by the main effect of the heatwave, while the group aged 61years and older was affected by the added effect of the heatwave. The effects of heatwaves differed among groups of MBD hospitalizations. The mental and behavioral disorder group due to psychoactive substance use was significantly affected by the main effect of heatwaves (RR:2.21; 95%Cl:1.55-3.15). The group of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders were highly vulnerable towards both the main and the added effect of heatwaves with RR = 1.50 (95%CI, 1.20-1.86) and RR = 1.14 (95%CI, 1.01-1.30), respectively.

Asian dust storms result in a higher risk of the silicosis hospital admissions.

Previous studies found that silicosis was majorly associated with occupation-related risks. However, little evidence was available to clarify the relation between Asian dust storm (ADS) and silicosis hospital admissions. This present paper aims to investigate the association between ADS events and hospital admissions for silicosis. We applied a Poisson time-series regression on the 2000-2012 National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, linking air quality data and ambient temperature data to estimate the impact of ADS on silicosis hospital admissions in the age-specific groups. A total of 2154 hospital admissions were recorded for silicosis in Taiwan, for a daily average number of 0.45. The number rises from 0.43 on a day without ADS to 0.70 on the outbreak day and continues increasing to 0.83 one day after outbreak. Among patients under 45, the effect of ADS appears on the event day as well as several post-event days (lag2-6) at the significant level of p < 0.1. There is also a significant lag effect on post-event day 2 (p < 0.05) for those aged above 74. Asian dust storms do result in a rise of silicosis hospital admissions, particularly for those above 74, those under 45, and for females.