Point Estimate Of Hazard Ratio Research Articles

Final results of a randomized phase II/III study comparing perioperative adriamycin plus ifosfamide and gemcitabine plus docetaxel for high-grade soft tissue sarcomas: Japan Clinical Oncology Group study JCOG1306.

11503 Background: We have previously reported long-term follow-up results of the favorable efficacy of perioperative chemotherapy with adriamycin plus ifosfamide (AI) for high-grade soft tissue sarcomas (STS) (JCOG0304). We have also reported the results of the second interim analysis of a phase II/III trial to confirm the non-inferiority of perioperative gemcitabine plus docetaxel (GD) to AI for high-grade STS (JCOG1306) in 2020 ASCO Annual Meeting. This study was terminated at the preplanned second interim analysis based on the point estimate of hazard ratio (HR) being above the pre-specified allowable HR of 1.61. The estimated 2-year overall survival (OS) was 94.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83.4–98.1%) in AI and 91.6% (80.9–96.4%) in GD (HR 2.55, 95% CI 0.80–8.14) in the analysis. We herein report the final results of JCOG1306 at 5-year follow-up. Methods: Patients with operable, FNCLCC grade 2/3 STS primary tumor (T2bN0M0 or anyTN1M0, AJCC 7th edition) or first local recurrent tumor in the extremities or trunk were randomized to AI or GD. Chemotherapy consisted of adriamycin 60 mg/m2 plus ifosfamide 10 g/m2 for AI or gemcitabine 1,800 mg/m2 plus docetaxel 70 mg/m2 for GD. The treatments were repeated for 3 courses preoperatively and 2 courses postoperatively in a 3-week interval. The primary endpoint in phase III part was OS. Planned sample size was 140 with a one-sided alpha of 0.1, power of 0.7 and a non-inferiority margin of 8% at 3-year OS (HR of 1.61), assuming 3-year OS of AI to be 85% and that of GD as 87%. Results: A total of 143 patients were enrolled between February 2014 and September 2018, and 5-year follow-up has finished in September 2023. Seventy and 73 patients were assigned to AI and GD, respectively, and included in the efficacy analysis. At the final analysis with a median follow-up of 6.0 years, the estimated 5-year OS was 90.0% (95% CI 80.1–95.1%) in AI and 76.1% (64.5–84.4%) in GD (HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.23–5.80). The estimated 5-year progression-free survival was 65.2% (95% CI: 52.7–75.2%) in AI and 57.4% (45.2–67.8%) in GD (HR: 1.33, 95% CI 0.81–2.18). At the 5-year follow-up analysis, there were no treatment-related deaths in both arms. Conclusions: The results of the second interim analysis were confirmed in the final analysis after five-year follow-up, i.e., non-inferiority of GD to AI in terms of OS could not be confirmed. In the perioperative chemotherapy for high-grade STS in the extremities and trunk, AI remains the standard regimen. Clinical trial information: jRCTs031180003 .

Results of a randomized phase II trial of 2nd-line treatment for advanced soft tissue sarcoma comparing trabectedin, eribulin and pazopanib: Japan Clinical Oncology Group study JCOG1802 (2ND-STEP).

11551 Background: Trabectedin, eribulin, pazopanib, and gemcitabine plus docetaxel (GD) are the candidates of second-line chemotherapy for advanced soft tissue sarcomas (STS), although there is no clear evidence showing which is better among those agents. This clinical trial aims to determine the most promising regimen among trabectedin, eribulin, and pazopanib as the test arm regimen in the future phase III trial of the second-line treatment for patients with advanced STS. Methods: This study, JCOG1802, is a multicenter randomized phase II selection design trial comparing trabectedin (1.2 mg/m2 IV, every 3 weeks), eribulin (1.4 mg/m2 IV, days 1 and 8, every 3 weeks) and pazopanib (800 mg PO, everyday) for patients with unresectable or metastatic STS refractory to doxorubicin-based first-line chemotherapy. Eligibility criteria include 16 years old or older, ECOG performance status of 0–2, unresectable and/or metastatic STS, an exacerbation within 6 months prior to registration, histological diagnosis of STS other than Ewing sarcoma, well-differentiated liposarcoma and myxoid liposarcoma, a history of chemotherapy of doxorubicin-based regimen for STS, and sufficient organ function. Primary endpoint is progression-free survival (PFS), and secondary endpoints include overall survival (OS), disease-control rate (DCR), response rate (RR), and adverse events. The planned total sample size was set at 120 patients to select the most promising regimen with a probability of at least 80%, assuming a median PFS of 3 months in the worst regimen and 4 months in the best regimen. The regimen demonstrating the most favorable point estimate of hazard ratio for PFS is chosen for the subsequent phase III trial. Results: From December 2019 to March 2023, 120 patients with advanced STS were enrolled (31 with leiomyosarcomas, 26 with liposarcomas, 18 with translocation-related sarcomas, and 45 with others) and randomized. Median PFS for trabectedin was 2.9 months (95% CI 1.3-5.3), for eribulin was 2.2 months (1.5-3.8), and for pazopanib was 3.7 months (2.6-5.2), respectively. The hazard ratios for eribulin and pazopanib compared to trabectedin were 1.22 (0.77-1.94) and 0.99 (0.63-1.56), respectively. Median OS for trabectedin was 14.8 months (10.8-29.1), for eribulin was 13.3 months (7.6-20.1), and for pazopanib was 15.7 months (9.8-not estimable). DCR for trabectedin was 50.0% (32.4-67.6), for eribulin was 34.3% (19.1-52.2), and for pazopanib was 64.9% (47.5-79.8). Conclusions: Pazopanib showed the best PFS and OS as the second-line treatment for patients with advanced STS among trabectedin, eribulin, and pazopanib. A phase III trial comparing GD with pazopanib is planned as the next step. Clinical trial information: jRCTs031190152 .

A Comparison of Additional Benefit Assessment Methods for Time-to-Event Endpoints Using Hazard Ratio Point Estimates or Confidence Interval Limits by Means of a Simulation Study.

For time-to-event endpoints, three additional benefit assessment methods have been developed aiming at an unbiased knowledge about the magnitude of clinical benefit of newly approved treatments. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) defines a continuous score using the hazard ratio point estimate (HR-PE). The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) and the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) developed methods with an ordinal outcome using lower and upper limits of the 95% HR confidence interval (HR-CI), respectively. We describe all three frameworks for additional benefit assessment aiming at a fair comparison across different stakeholders. Furthermore, we determine which ASCO score is consistent with which ESMO/IQWiG category. In a comprehensive simulation study with different failure time distributions and treatment effects, we compare all methods using Spearman's correlation and descriptive measures. For determination of ASCO values consistent with categories of ESMO/IQWiG, maximizing weighted Cohen's Kappa approach was used. Our research depicts a high positive relationship between ASCO/IQWiG and a low positive relationship between ASCO/ESMO. An ASCO score smaller than 17, 17 to 20, 20 to 24, and greater than 24 corresponds to ESMO categories. Using ASCO values of 21 and 38 as cutoffs represents IQWiG categories. We investigated the statistical aspects of the methods and hence implemented slightly reduced versions of all methods. IQWiG and ASCO are more conservative than ESMO, which often awards the maximal category independent of the true effect and is at risk of overcompensating with various failure time distributions. ASCO has similar characteristics as IQWiG. Delayed treatment effects and underpowered/overpowered studies influence all methods in some degree. Nevertheless, ESMO is the most liberal one. For the additional benefit assessment, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) uses the hazard ratio point estimate (HR-PE) for their continuous score. In contrast, the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) and the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) use the lower and upper 95% HR confidence interval (HR-CI) to specific thresholds, respectively. ESMO generously assigns maximal scores, while IQWiG is more conservative.This research provides the first comparison between IQWiG and ASCO and describes all three frameworks for additional benefit assessment aiming for a fair comparison across different stakeholders. Furthermore, thresholds for ASCO consistent with ESMO and IQWiG categories are determined, enabling a comparison of the methods in practice in a fair manner.IQWiG and ASCO are the more conservative methods, while ESMO awards high percentages of maximal categories, especially with various failure time distributions. ASCO has similar characteristics as IQWiG. Delayed treatment effects and under/-overpowered studies influence all methods. Nevertheless, ESMO is the most liberal one. An ASCO score smaller than 17, 17 to 20, 20 to 24, and greater than 24 correspond to the categories of ESMO. Using ASCO values of 21 and 38 as cutoffs represents categories of IQWiG.

Abstract P2-13-03: Feasibility of generating an external control comparator using RWD by matching with previously conducted RCTs: CDK4/6 Inhibitors for the treatment of Metastatic Breast Cancer

Abstract Objectives: Real-world data (RWD) from the clinical care of patients captured through Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is a valuable resource for research. Understanding the relationship between characteristics and outcomes of patients treated in the real world and in oncology clinical trials by producing evaluable trial-like populations from RWD can advance clinical and regulatory knowledge. Methods: RWD from the Flatiron Health EHR-derived, de-identified, longitudinal database were compared with pooled patient-level data from the three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) supporting regular approval of CDK4/6 inhibitors for patients with previously untreated hormone receptor-positive, HER- metastatic breast cancer (mBC). The RCT group included patients who received aromatase inhibitor (AI) monotherapy (RCT-control), and an experimental group (RCT-experimental) that received a cyclin dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitor + AI. The real-world control group (rwCG) of patients initiating AI monotherapy was selected using the key eligibility criteria across the RCTs. Patients from the rwCG were matched to the RCT-control and the RCT-experimental patients, respectively. Matching (1:1) was performed through the propensity score (PS) method adjusting for baseline covariates of age, race, site of disease, ECOG PS, and metastatic disease (recurrent, De novo). Multiple imputation (MI) was adopted to impute missing ECOG PS in the rwCG due to the high percentage of missingness. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed for the following groups: A) rwCG and RCT- control B) rwCG and RCT-experimental and C) RCT-control and RCT-experimental. To assess the feasibility of RCT control arm replication, we assessed whether the trial replication hazard ratio (HR) estimates from analysis B were within the published trial estimates’ 95% confidence intervals (CIs). HR and their 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazard model. Results: A total of 1292 patients were selected from the EHR-derived database to comprise the rwCG and 1827 patients were pooled across the RCTs (1106 for RCT-experimental and 721 patients for RCT-control). With MI, 520 rwCG patients were matched to the RCT-control for analysis A, and 658 rwCG patients were matched to the RCT-experimental for analysis B. The results are summarized in Table 1. The point estimate of the PFS HR comparing the rwCG to the RCT-experimental was within the 95% CIs for three RCTs. For OS, the point estimate of the HR was within the 95% CI for MONALESSA-2 but not for PALOMA-2. Conclusion: PFS and OS appeared longer in the RCT-control than in the rwCG, and the difference was more pronounced in OS. While it appears that there is greater similarity for PFS than for OS based on the results of the matched analysis of RCT- experimental vs. rwCG, evaluation of PFS results are limited by substantial differences in assessment and outcome definitions for progression between RCT-control (RECIST) and rwCG. Despite PS matching, there are apparent differences between patients treated in RCTs and routine practice, highlighting the importance of clinical setting, trial selection, study design, and use of randomization. There are still outstanding feasibility questions on the evaluation of OS and further research is required to understand factors potentially impacting the outcomes between RCTs and RWD. Table 1: Estimated Treatment Effects in PFS and OS, rwCG vs RCT-control vs RCT-experimental Citation Format: Christy Osgood, Jiaxin Fan, Xin Gao, Catherine Keane, Jonathan Bryan, James P. Roose, Erik Bloomquist, Aracelis Torres, Shrujal Baxi, Nathan Nussbaum, Fatima Rizvi, Shenghui Tang, Irene Nunes, Julia Beaver, Donna R. Rivera, Lynn Howie, Prashni Paliwal, Laleh Amiri-Kordestani. Feasibility of generating an external control comparator using RWD by matching with previously conducted RCTs: CDK4/6 Inhibitors for the treatment of Metastatic Breast Cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-13-03.

Long term survival after a first transient ischaemic attack in England: A retrospective matched cohort study

ObjectiveTransient ischaemic attacks (TIA) serve as warning signs for future stroke, and the impact of TIA on long term survival is uncertain. We assessed the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a transient ischaemic attack (TIA). DesignRetrospective matched cohort study. MethodsCohort study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database in the United Kingdom. Cases born in or before 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Double-Cox Weibull survival model with a random frailty effect of general practice, while adjusting for different socio-demographic factors, medical therapies, and comorbidities. Results20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. During the study period, 24,176 participants died comprising of 7,745 (37.5%) cases and 16,431(28.0%) controls. In terms of hazards of mortality, cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to their 39-60 years matched controls (HR = 3.04 (2.91 - 3.18)). The HR for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to their same-aged matched controls. Cases aged 39-60 at TIA onset who were prescribed aspirin were associated with reduced HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.01), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5, 10 and 15 years respectively, compared to the same aged cases who were not prescribed any antiplatelet. Statistically significant reductions in hazard ratios were observed with aspirin at 10 and 15 years in all age groups. Hazard ratio point estimates for other antiplatelets (dipyridamole or clopidogrel) and dual antiplatelet therapy were very similar to aspirin at 5, 10 and 15 years but with wider confidence intervals that included 1. There was no survival benefit associated with antiplatelet prescription in controls. ConclusionsThe overall risk of death was considerably elevated in all age groups after a first-ever TIA event. Aspirin prescription was associated with a reduced risk. These findings support the use of aspirin in secondary prevention for people with a TIA. The results do not support the use of antiplatelet medication in people without TIA.

A randomized phase III trial of mFOLFOX7 or CapeOX plus bevacizumab versus 5-FU/l-LV or capecitabine plus bevacizumab as initial therapy in elderly patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: JCOG1018 study (RESPECT).

10 Background: It is uncertain if the addition of oxaliplatin (OX) to fluoropyrimidine plus bevacizumab (BEV) is suitable as initial therapy in elderly patients (pts) with metastatic colorectal cancer (MCRC). Therefore, we conducted a randomized controlled trial to confirm the superiority of the addition of OX in terms of progression-free survival (PFS). This JCOG trial was originally planned as a paralell study with NCCTG, but the NCCTG trial was terminated early. Methods: Key eligibility criteria included unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer, and histologically confirmed adenocarcinoma, aged 70-74 with PS 2 or 75 or older with ECOG PS 0-2. Eligible pts were randomized (1:1) to either no addition of OX or addition. Whether using 5-FU+levoleucovorin calcium (5-FU/ l-LV) or capecitabine (CAPE) was declared before study entry; options included 5-FU/ l-LV+BEV (C), CAPE+BEV (D), mFOLFOX7+BEV (E), or CapeOX+BEV (F). 5-FU/ l-LV regimen omitted bolus 5-FU from the original sLV5FU regimen. The dose of CAPE was adjusted by estimated creatinine clearance. The primary endpoint was PFS. The planned sample size was 250 pts in total to detect a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.75, with a one-sided alpha of 5% and 70% power. The decision rule is that the primary endpoint is met, and the point estimate of HR of overall survival (OS) is less than 0.8. Results: Between Sep 2012 and Mar 2019, 251 pts were randomized. 125 pts were allocated to no addition of OX and 126 pts to addition. Median age was 79, aged 70-74/75-79/80-84/85+:5%/45%/37%/13%, PS 0/1/2:53%/39%/7%. Of 251 pts, 241 pts had PFS events and 223 pts had OS events. Median PFS (mPFS) was 9.4 months (M) (95%CI 8.3–10.3) in no addition of OX and 10.0M (9.0–11.2) in addition (HR 0.837, 90.5%CI [0.673–1.042], one-sided p = 0.086). Median OS was 21.3M (18.7-24.3) in no addition and 19.7M (15.5–25.5) in addition of OX (HR 1.054 [0.810–1.372]). Response rate was 29.5% (21.2-38.8) in no addition of OX and 47.7% (38.1-57.5) in addition. Proportion of pts whose EQ-5D scores improved from baseline to post-treatment in overall score did not differ (odds ratio 0.94 (0.51-1.75)). The deaths of 1 pt in no addition of OX and in 3 pts in addition were deemed treatment-related. Conclusions: The addition of OX has no survival benefit over no addition. OX was not recommended for elderly MCRC pts as initial therapy. Clinical trial information: UMIN000008866.[Table: see text]

Comparative analysis of overall survival in patients with HER2-amplified treatment-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer treated with pertuzumab plus trastuzumab in Mypathway and patients treated in the real-world.

36 Background: ML28897 (MyPathway) is a multi-basket trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of targeted therapies in non-indicated tumor types harboring relevant genetic alterations. In MyPathway, patients with treatment-refractory HER2-amplified metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) were enrolled and received pertuzumab plus trastuzumab. In order to facilitate contextualization of the outcome of pertuzumab plus trastuzumab in MyPathway, we conducted a retrospective study to compare with the outcome in real-world HER2-amplified mCRC patients. Methods: Overall survival (OS) was used as the endpoint to compare outcomes from MyPathway (PER/HER arm) and the external control of HER2-amplified mCRC patients treated with any therapy except anti-HER2 therapy in the refractory setting (EC arm) from the US-based de-identified Flatiron Health-Foundation Medicine Clinico-Genomic Database (CGDB). The de-identified data originated from approximately 280 US cancer clinics (̃800 sites of care). OS was defined as time from first treatment to death in the PER/HER arm and from index date (initiation of treatment in the refractory setting) to death in the EC arm. For patients in the CGDB who had met study eligibility criteria at multiple index dates, all eligible index dates were used for the analysis. Standardized mortality ratio weighting based on propensity score was used for deriving the pseudo-population (post-weighting population). In the post-weighting population, multivariate Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to compare between the arms. A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the robustness and consistency of the primary analysis results. Results: The PER/HER arm consisted of 57 patients who had treatment-refractory mCRC with HER2 amplification and enrolled in the MyPathway by August 1, 2017 data cutoff. For the EC arm, 64 HER2-amplified mCRC patients were selected from CGDB collected between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2019. After applying the predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria set to be similar to those in the MyPathway, 27 eligible index dates were selected from 18 eligible patients and used for primary analysis. In the post-weighting population, the hazard ratio (HR) for OS estimated by multivariate Cox regression model was 0.729 (95% CI: 0.184-3.900) and median survival in the PER/HER arm and the EC arm were 11.47 months (95% CI: 7.72-22.11) and 9.72 months (95% CI: 7.43-22.21), respectively. The results of the all sensitivity analyses were consistent with those in the primary analysis in terms of the point estimate of HR. Conclusions: Despite a small sample size, the totality of findings suggests that the combination of pertuzumab and trastuzumab could have a potential benefit in OS for this population.

Vitamin D supplementation and mortality

In the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, Rachel Neale and colleagues1 present their findings from D-Health, a population-based, double-blind, placebo-controlled vitamin D3 intervention trial in older Australian adults (n=21 315). It is the largest study to date to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on mortality as the primary outcome. No significant reduction in all-cause mortality or from cancer and cardiovascular disease was found. For cancer mortality, hazard ratio point estimates for intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were numerically higher in the intervention group, but 95% CIs were wide and crossed 1.

Blood pressure levels and risk of haemorrhagic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation and anticoagulants: results from a primary care cohort with hypertension

Abstract Background Haemorrhagic stroke (HS) is a serious condition that kills and debilitates many of those afflicted by it. Hypertension and oral anticoagulation (OAC) are independent risk factors for HS. Many patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have hypertension and OAC. The concomitance of hypertension and OAC confers an even higher risk of haemorrhagic stroke, but less is known about the association between specific blood pressure levels and the risk of HS in patients with AF and OAC. Purpose To assess the risk of haemorrhagic stroke at different systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels in a primary care population with hypertension, AF and OAC. Methods We identified 3972 patients with hypertension, AF and OAC in a primary care database in southern Sweden. We followed patients from Jan 1, 2006 until a first event of HS, death, cessation of OAC or Dec 31, 2016. HS was defined as ICD-10 diagnosis codes: I60, I61, and I62. We analysed the association between SBP levels and HS by dividing SBP into five categories: <130, 130–139, 140–159, 160–179 and ≥180 mmHg. We also fitted a spline curve to visualise the relationship between SBP and HS. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for the SBP categories with a Cox proportional hazards model. The 130–139 group was used as a reference in the model. We identified age, sex, previous stroke, platelet inhibitor treatment, alcohol abuse and smoking as possible confounders with a directed acyclic graph and included them as co-variates in the model. Results We identified 51 cases of HS during follow-up. In the categorical analysis of SBP, point estimates of HRs for HS increased gradually from the lowest SBP category to the 160–179 category. Only the 160–179 category had a significantly different HR (3.76, CI 1.56–9.04) than the reference 130–139 category, however. See Table 1. No other co-variates were significantly associated with HS. The spline curve, Figure 1, illustrates a significantly increased HR for HS in the 140–175 SBP range. Conclusions In this real-world primary care cohort with hypertension, AF and OAC, we found that SBP in the 160–179 mmHg range was significantly associated with an increased risk of haemorrhagic stroke. Our findings emphasise the importance of blood pressure control in this patient category. Figure 1. Continuous and categorical SBP & HS risk Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The study was financed by grants from the Swedish state under the agreement between the Swedish government and the country councils, the ALF-agreement.

Protocol of the QUATTRO-II study: a multicenter randomized phase II study comparing CAPOXIRI plus bevacizumab with FOLFOXIRI plus bevacizumab as a first-line treatment in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

BackgroundFirst-line treatment with FOLFOXIRI plus bevacizumab (BEV) is highly effective and regarded as one of the standards-of-care for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), despite the high incidence of neutropenia and diarrhea as side effects. AXEPT, an Asian phase III study, showed that modified CAPIRI+BEV [capecitabine (CAP: 1600 mg/m2), irinotecan (IRI: 200 mg/m2), and BEV (7.5 mg/m2)] was non-inferior to FOLFIRI+BEV as a second-line therapy for mCRC patients and was associated with a lower incidence of hematologic toxicities. Thus, a reduced dose of the CAP and IRI regimen in combination with oxaliplatin (OX) and BEV (CAPOXIRI+BEV) may be more feasible than FOLFOXIRI+BEV, without compromising efficacy.MethodsQUATTRO-II is an open-label, multicenter, randomized phase II study. In Step 1, the recommended doses of OX and IRI will be investigated as a safety lead-in. In Step 2, patients will be randomized to the recommended dose of either CAPOXIRI+BEV or FOLFOXIRI+BEV. Induction triplet chemotherapy plus BEV treatments will be administered for up to 4 months followed by fluoropyrimidine plus BEV maintenance. The primary endpoint is progression-free survival (PFS). The similarity in PFS between the two arms will be evaluated by observing whether the point estimate of hazard ratio (HR) for PFS falls between 0.80 and 1.25. Ensuring a 70% probability that the observed HR will be “0.8 < HR < 1.25” under the assumption of the true HR of 1.0, and 100 patients will be evaluated during the 3-year study period. Secondary endpoints include overall survival, overall response rate, safety, and patient reported outcome (PRO) (FACT/GOG-Ntx4).DiscussionConsidering the lower incidence of hematologic toxicities with modified CAPIRI+BEV than with FOLFIRI+BEV, CAPOXIRI+BEV may be a promising treatment option if sufficient efficacy and lower hematologic toxicities are indicated in this study. Additionally, a lower incidence of peripheral sensory neuropathy (PSN) reported following CAPEOX treatment compared to that after FOLFOX in ACHIEVE, an adjuvant phase III trial, suggest that CAPOXIRI+BEV can mitigate OX-induced PSN.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov NCT04097444. Registered September 20, 2019, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT04097444/ Japan Registry of Clinical Trials jRCTs041190072. Registered October 9, 2019.

Evidence of survival benefit was often ambiguous in randomized trials of cancer treatments

ObjectivesThe objective of the study is to estimate the proportion of statistically significant survival improvements reported in randomized trials of cancer treatments that are also compatible with a clinically negligible benefit. Study Design and SettingThis is a cross-sectional study of reports of randomized clinical trials of cancer treatments that reported a statistically significant increase in overall survival, published in leading journals between 2009 and 2019. The main outcome variable was the hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival and its upper 95% confidence limit. An HR of 0.95 implies an absolute survival gain ≤1.9%, and an HR of 0.90 implies an absolute survival gain ≤3.8%; we reasoned that such survival gains can be considered clinically negligible, given the potential toxicity of oncologic treatments. ResultsAmong 234 trial results, the mean point estimate of the HR was 0.664, and all HRs were below 0.90. The mean upper 95% confidence limit for the HR was 0.897, but 37.6% of the values were ≥0.95, and 59.0% were ≥0.90. These proportions were lower when overall survival was the primary outcome of the trial (29.9% ≥ 0.95 and 51.3% ≥ 0.90). ConclusionsConsidering only point estimates of HRs, all trials reported clinically meaningful improvements in overall survival. However, the upper confidence limits of a large proportion of HRs were also compatible with clinically negligible survival gains. Acknowledging the uncertainty regarding treatment benefits presents a challenge for the reporting of trial results and for clinical decision-making.

Results of a randomized phase II/III study comparing perioperative adriamycin plus ifosfamide and gemcitabine plus docetaxel for high-grade soft tissue sarcomas: Japan Clinical Oncology Group study JCOG1306.

11504 Background: Our previous phase II study for high-grade soft tissue sarcomas (STS), JCOG0304, suggested long-term favorable effects of perioperative adriamycin plus ifosfamide (AI) on survival of STS patients. We have also reported in 2015 ASCO Annual Meeting that a phase II/III trial to confirm the non-inferiority of perioperative gemcitabine plus docetaxel (GD) to AI for high-grade STS (JCOG1306) had been started. We herein report the results of JCOG1306 at the early termination by the preplanned second interim analysis. Methods: Patients with operable, FNCLCC grade 2/3 STS primary tumor (T2bN0M0 or anyTN1M0, AJCC 7th edition) or first local recurrent tumor in the extremities or trunk were randomized to AI or GD. Chemotherapy consisted of adriamycin 60 mg/m2 plus ifosfamide 10 g/m2 for AI or gemcitabine 1,800 mg/m2 plus docetaxel 70 mg/m2 for GD. The treatments were repeated for 3 courses preoperatively and 2 courses postoperatively in a 3-week interval. The primary endpoint in phase III part was overall survival (OS). Planned sample size was 140 with a one-sided alpha of 0.1, power of 0.7 and a non-inferiority margin of 8% at 3-year OS, assuming 3-year OS of AI to be 85% and that of GD as 87%. The patient accrual has started in February 2014 and finished in September 2018. Results: A total of 143 patients were enrolled and included in the efficacy analysis. Seventy and 73 patients were assigned to AI and GD, respectively. At the second interim-analysis on December 2019, the estimated 2-year OS was 94.3 % (95% confidence interval (CI) 83.4–98.1) in AI and 91.6 % (80.9–96.4) in GD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.55, 95% CI 0.67–9.78). The estimated 2-year progression-free survival was 81.9 % (95% CI: 69.5–89.7) in AI and 64.0 % (51.1–74.4) in GD (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.22–4.39). There were no treatment-related deaths in both groups. The most common Grade 3 or higher adverse events in AI were neutropenia (88.4%), anemia (49.3%), and febrile neutropenia (36.2%), whereas those in GD were neutropenia (79.5%), febrile neutropenia (17.8%), and alanine aminotransferase (9.6%). Based on the result of this analysis, the Data Monitoring and Safety Committee of JCOG recommended terminating the study since the point estimate of HR was above the pre-specified allowable HR of 1.61. Conclusions: Although the toxicities were modest in GD, non-inferiority of GD to AI could not be confirmed. In the perioperative chemotherapy for high-grade STS in the extremities and trunk, AI remains the standard regimen. Clinical trial information: UMIN000013175 .

Quattro-II study: A multicenter randomized phase II study comparing capoxiri plus bevacizumab with FOLFOXIRI plus bevacizumab in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer as the first-line treatment.

TPS267 Background: The first-line FOLFOXIRI with Bevacizumab (BEV) is highly effective and regarded as one of standard-of-care treatments in patients (pts) with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) despite a high incidence of adverse events (AEs) such as neutropenia and diarrhea. The AXEPT, Asian Phase III study showed CAPIRI+BEV [Capecitabine (CAP: 1600 mg/m2), Irinotecan (IRI: 200 mg/m2) and BEV (7.5 mg/m2)] q3wk was non-inferior to FOLFIRI+BEV in pts with the second-line mCRC, with a lower incidence hematologic toxicity favoring CAPIRI+BEV over FOLFIRI+BEV. Based on these, a reduced dose of CAP and IRI regimen in combination with Oxaliplatin (OX) and BEV, CAPOXIRI+BEV may be more feasible than FOLFOXIRI+BEV, without compromising efficacy. Methods: QUATTRO-II is an open-label, multicenter, randomized phase II study. Key eligibility criteria are as follows; age ≥20 years, ECOG performance status (PS) 0-1 (≥71 years age: PS 0), adequate organ function, and UGT1A1 single-heterozygous (UGT1A1*1/*6 or *1/*28) or wild-type (*1/*1) genotype. Pts are randomized to either the recommended dose of CAPOXIRI+BEV or FOLFOXIRI+BEV (OX: 85 mg/m2, IRI: 165 mg/m2, l-leucovorin: 200 mg/m2, 5-FU: 3200 mg/m2), with the strata of RAS/ BRAF status, previous adjuvant OX, tumor sidedness, and UGT1A1 status. Induction triplet chemotherapy plus BEV treatments are administered for up to 4 months followed by fluoropyrimidine plus BEV maintenance. The recommended dose of CAPOXIRI+BEV will be determined as a safety-lead-in before moving forward to the phase II main part. The primary endpoint is progression-free survival (PFS). The similarity of PFS between the two arms is evaluated by observing whether the point estimate of hazard ratio (HR) for PFS falls in between 0.80 and 1.25. Ensuring 70% probability that the observed HR will be “0.8&lt;HR&lt;1.25” under the assumption of the true HR of 1.0, a total of 100 patients will be needed with 3-year study period. Secondary endpoints included overall survival, overall response rate, safety, and patient-reported outcome (FACT/GOG-Ntx4). The enrollment started in October 2019. Clinical trial information: NCT04097444.

Evaluation of a method to indirectly adjust for unmeasured covariates in the association between fine particulate matter and mortality

BackgroundIndirect adjustment via partitioned regression is a promising technique to control for unmeasured confounding in large epidemiological studies. The method uses a representative ancillary dataset to estimate the association between variables missing in a primary dataset with the complete set of variables of the ancillary dataset to produce an adjusted risk estimate for the variable in question. The objective of this paper is threefold: 1) evaluate the method for non-linear survival models, 2) formalize an empirical process to evaluate the suitability of the required ancillary matching dataset, and 3) test modifications to the method to incorporate time-varying exposure data, and proportional weighting of datasets. MethodsWe used the association between fine particle air pollution (PM2.5) with mortality in the 2001 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC, N = 2.4 million, 10-years follow-up) as our primary dataset, and the 2001 cycle of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS, N = 80,630) as the ancillary matching dataset that contained confounding risk factor information not available in CanCHEC (e.g., smoking). The main evaluation process used a gold-standard approach wherein two variables (education and income) available in both datasets were excluded, indirectly adjusted for, and compared to true models with education and income included to assess the amount of bias correction. An internal validation for objective 1 used only CanCHEC data, whereas an external validation for objective 2 replaced CanCHEC with the CCHS. The two proposed modifications were applied as part of the validation tests, as well as in a final indirect adjustment of four missing risk factor variables (smoking, alcohol use, diet, and exercise) in which adjustment direction and magnitude was compared to models using an equivalent longitudinal cohort with direct adjustment for the same variables. ResultsAt baseline (2001) both cohorts had very similar PM2.5 distributions across population characteristics, although levels for CCHS participants were consistently 1.8–2.0 μg/m3 lower. Applying sample-weighting largely corrected for this discrepancy. The internal validation tests showed minimal downward bias in PM2.5 mortality hazard ratios of 0.4–0.6% using a static exposure, and 1.7–3% when a time-varying exposure was used. The external validation of the CCHS as the ancillary dataset showed slight upward bias of −0.7 to −1.1% and downward bias of 1.3–2.3% using the static and time-varying approaches respectively. ConclusionsThe CCHS was found to be fairly well representative of CanCHEC and its use in Canada for indirect adjustment is warranted. Indirect adjustment methods can be used with survival models to correct hazard ratio point estimates and standard errors in models missing key covariates when a representative matching dataset is available. The results of this formal evaluation should encourage other cohorts to assess the suitability of ancillary datasets for the application of the indirect adjustment methodology to address potential residual confounding.

Four courses versus eight courses of adjuvant S-1 for patients with stage II gastric cancer (JCOG1104 [OPAS-1]): an open-label, phase 3, non-inferiority, randomised trial

Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy with S-1 for 1 year (corresponding to eight courses) is standard care for stage II gastric cancer. Whether the duration of S-1 could be shortened to 6 months (corresponding to four courses) without worsening survival is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the non-inferiority of four courses of S-1 compared with eight courses of S-1 for patients with stage II gastric cancer. We did a phase 3, open-label, randomised controlled, non-inferiority trial at 59 hospitals in Japan. Patients aged 20-80 years with stage II adenocarcinoma of the stomach were randomly assigned (1:1) to eight courses or four courses of S-1. Randomisation was done by the Japan Clinical Oncology Group Data Center website, using a minimisation method with a random component using institution, stage (IIA vs IIB), age (<70 years vs ≥70 years), and mode of operation (open gastrectomy with bursectomy vs open gastrectomy without bursectomy vs laparoscopic gastrectomy) as adjustment factors. One course was 80 mg/day per m2 of S-1 administered for 4 weeks followed by a rest for 2 weeks. The primary endpoint was relapse-free survival, analysed by intention to treat, with a non-inferiority margin for the hazard ratio (HR) set at 1·37. This study is registered at UMIN-Clinical Trial Registry, number UMIN000007306. Between Feb 16, 2012, and March 19, 2017, 590 patients were enrolled (295 per group). 528 (89%) patients were analysed at the first planned interim analysis in March, 2017, at which time the point estimate of HR for the four-course group compared with the eight-course group was 2·52 (95% CI 1·11-5·77), which exceeded 1·37 and met the prespecified criteria for early termination. Predictive probability for showing non-inferiority at the final analysis was calculated to be 2·9%. The study was stopped for futility. Updated 3-year relapse-free survival analysed in May, 2017, was 93·1% (95% CI 87·8-96·1) for the eight-course group and 89·8% (84·2-93·5) for the four-course group (HR 1·84, 95% CI 0·93-3·63). The most common grade 3-4 adverse event was neutropenia, observed in 46 (16%) patients in the eight-course group and 51 (17%) patients in the four-course group. S-1 for 1 year should remain as standard adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II gastric cancer. Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development; the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan; the National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund, Japan.

4 Courses and 8 Courses of S-1 Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Pathological Stage II Gastric Cancer JCOG1104 (OPAS-1): A Phase 3, Open-Label, Non-Inferiority, Randomised Trial

4 Courses and 8 Courses of S-1 Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Pathological Stage II Gastric Cancer JCOG1104 (OPAS-1): A Phase 3, Open-Label, Non-Inferiority, Randomised Trial

Strength Training and All-Cause, Cardiovascular Disease, and Cancer Mortality in Older Women: A Cohort Study.

BackgroundFew data exist on the association between strength training and mortality rates. We sought to examine the association between strength training and all‐cause, cardiovascular disease, and cancer mortality.Methods and ResultsBeginning in 2001 to 2005, 28 879 women throughout the United States (average baseline age, 62.2 years) from the Women's Health Study who were free of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and cancer reported their physical activities, including strength training. During follow‐up (average, 12.0 years) through 2015, investigators documented 3055 deaths (411 from cardiovascular disease and 748 from cancer). After adjusting for covariables, including aerobic activity, time in strength training showed a quadratic association with all‐cause mortality (P=0.36 for linear trend; P<0.001 for quadratic trend); hazard ratios across 5 categories of strength training (0, 1–19, 20–59, 60–149, and ≥150 min/wk) were 1.0 (referent), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.65–0.82), 0.71 (0.62–0.82), 0.81 (0.67–0.97), and 1.10 (0.77–1.56), respectively. A significant quadratic association was also observed for cardiovascular disease death (P=0.007) but not cancer death (P=0.41). Spline models also indicated a J‐shaped nonlinear association for all‐cause mortality (P=0.020); the point estimates of hazard ratios were <1.00 for 1 to 145 min/wk of strength training, compared with 0 min/wk, whereas hazard ratios were >1.00 for ≥146 min/wk of strength training. However, confidence intervals were wide at higher levels of strength training.ConclusionsTime in strength training showed a J‐shaped association with all‐cause mortality in older women. A moderate amount of time in strength training seemed beneficial for longevity, independent of aerobic activity; however, any potential risk with more time (≈≥150 min/wk) should be further investigated.

Cardiovascular safety assessment of pramlintide in type 2 diabetes: results from a pooled analysis of five clinical trials.

BackgroundThis report evaluated the cardiovascular safety of the amylin analog pramlintide—an existing diabetes injectable treatment—by comparing relevant cardiovascular adverse events (AEs) reported in previous phase 3 and 4 clinical trials among patients receiving pramlintide and those receiving control treatments.MethodsCardiovascular safety of pramlintide was assessed using accepted regulatory medical definitions of AEs reported in five randomized, controlled phase 3 and 4 trials of 16–52 weeks’ duration in adults with type 2 diabetes. The original trials compared pramlintide (90–120 mcg twice daily or 30–150 mcg three times daily) with placebo (four studies) or a mealtime rapid-acting insulin analog (one study). Background therapies included insulin alone or in combination with oral glucose-lowering agents. AE data obtained from clinical study reports were combined into one database and analyzed for the intention-to-treat population of 2016 patients (pramlintide, n = 1434; pooled comparator, n = 582). The primary analysis compared reported major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) between pramlintide and control.ResultsThe incidence of reported MACE was similar between pramlintide (4.7 %) and pooled comparators (4.5 %). Secondary analyses included MACE relative risk and hazard ratio point estimates, which ranged from 0.86 to 0.93 for pramlintide relative to comparator treatment; the upper limit of the two-sided 95 % confidence interval did not exceed the threshold of 1.8.ConclusionsBoth the point estimate of the reported MACE frequency and estimated risk ratios showed that mealtime pramlintide as an adjunct to insulin conferred no increased risk of cardiovascular AEs in patients with type 2 diabetes using insulin.

Abstract P2-08-16: Prognostic and predictive abilities of intrinsic subtype in hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer from the EGF30008 phase III clinical trial

Abstract Background Combination of letrozole and lapatinib improved progression-free survival (PFS) compared with letrozole and placebo in patients with hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (MBC), but not HR+/HER2-negative (HER2-) disease (JCO 2009). However, HR+ disease is clinically and biologically heterogeneous with all intrinsic molecular subtypes (Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2-enriched [HER2E] and Basal-like) identified. Here, we tested retrospectively the prognostic and predictive ability of intrinsic subtype in tumor samples of the EGF30008 trial. Methods Expression profiling from FFPE tumor tissues was performed on the nCounter platform. Tumors were classified into each intrinsic subtype using the research-based PAM50 classifier (JCO 2009). Cox proportional hazard models for PFS and overall survival (OS) were used to generate point estimates of hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Changes in likelihood ratio χ2 values were used to measure and compare the relative amount of information of each variable. Variables evaluated were: age, prior endocrine therapy, presence of visceral disease, number of metastatic sites, performance status, clinical HER2 status, and treatment. To determine whether the intrinsic subtypes were predictive of lapatinib benefit, we tested the interaction term of subtype by treatment arm in a Cox model that also included the main effects. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to depict the proportion of patients free from progression as a function of time. Results Tumor samples from 821 patients (63.8%) were profiled (85.7% primary and 14.3% metastatic tumor samples). Clinical-pathological features of this patient subset were well balanced compared with the original set. Within the entire cohort, all subtypes were identified: Luminal A (46.5%); Luminal B (29.7%); HER2E (7.4%); Basal-like (3.4%) and normal-like (12.9%). Within HER2+ disease, 28.6% of samples were HER2E. Intrinsic subtype was found the strongest prognostic factor independently associated with PFS and OS in all patients, and in patientswith HER2-negative or HER2+ disease (P&amp;lt;0.0001). Median PFS and OS for each subtype within clinically HER2-negative disease were: Luminal A (16.85 and 45.0 months), Luminal B (10.97 and 37.0 months), HER2E (4.67 and 16.0 months) and Basal-like (4.14 and 23.0 months). Within clinically HER2-negative disease (n=644), 16 patients (2.5%) had HER2E disease. Patients with HER2-/HER2E disease benefited from lapatinib (6.5 vs 2.6 months; PFS HR =0.24, 95% CI: 0.07-0.86; P=0.019; HER2E vs not treatment interaction P=0.016). Finally, intrinsic subtype was not predictive of benefit from lapatinib within HER2+ disease. Conclusions HR-positive disease is biologically heterogeneous and intrinsic subtypes are strongly prognostic in a first-line MBC setting. HR+/HER2- disease with a HER2E profile may benefit from lapatinib. The clinical value of intrinsic subtyping in HR+ MBC warrants further investigation, but patients with Luminal A/HER2-negative MBC disease might be good candidates for letrozole monotherapy in the first-line setting regardless of visceral disease and number of metastases. Citation Format: Prat A, Cheang MCU, Galván P, Nuciforo P, Paré L, Adamo B, Viladot M, Press MF, Gagnon R, Ellis C, Johnston S. Prognostic and predictive abilities of intrinsic subtype in hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer from the EGF30008 phase III clinical trial. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-08-16.

Coronary Heart Disease Risks Associated with High Levels of HDL Cholesterol

BackgroundThe association between high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL‐C) and coronary heart disease (CHD) events is not well described in individuals with very high levels of HDL‐C (>80 mg/dL).Methods and ResultsUsing pooled data from 6 community‐based cohorts we examined CHD and total mortality risks across a broad range of HDL‐C, including values in excess of 80 mg/dL. We used Cox proportional hazards models with penalized splines to assess multivariable, adjusted, sex‐stratified associations of HDL‐C with the hazard for CHD events and total mortality, using HDL‐C 45 mg/dL and 55 mg/dL as the referent in men and women, respectively. Analyses included 11 515 men and 12 925 women yielding 307 245 person‐years of follow‐up. In men, the association between HDL‐C and CHD events was inverse and linear across most HDL‐C values; however at HDL‐C values >90 mg/dL there was a plateau effect in the pattern of association. In women, the association between HDL‐C and CHD events was inverse and linear across lower values of HDL‐C, however at HDL‐C values >75 mg/dL there were no further reductions in the hazard ratio point estimates for CHD. In unadjusted models there were increased total mortality risks in men with very high HDL‐C, however mortality risks observed in participants with very high HDL‐C were attenuated after adjustment for traditional risk factors.ConclusionsWe did not observe further reductions in CHD risk with HDL‐C values higher than 90 mg/dL in men and 75 mg/dL in women.