Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales Research Articles

If you build it, will they notice? public charging density, charging infrastructure awareness, and consideration to purchase an electric vehicle

This research tests an implicit assumption about plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging infrastructure: people—including people not interested in PEVs—see public PEV charging. Data from a survey of all car-owning households in California are combined with data on public PEV charging and PEV registrations to estimate a structural equation model to test the direct and indirect effects of public charging density on whether participants see charging infrastructure and whether they have considered acquiring a PEV. We also explore the direct and indirect effects of seeing public charging on PEV purchase consideration. Results show the density of public charging is neither directly nor indirectly related to whether people see public charging or their level of PEV purchase consideration. Our results suggests that for public charging to drive PEV sales growth, it may need to be accompanied by strategies to increase consumers’ engagement with PEVs.

How Cost-effective are Electric Vehicle Subsidies in Reducing Tailpipe-CO2 Emissions? An Analysis of Major Electric Vehicle Markets

We estimate the cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) subsidies in reducing tailpipe-CO2 emissions in China, the U.S., and nine European countries. We find that the per-tonne cost of tailpipe-CO2 avoided increases linearly with the government-subsidized percentage of the PEV price. Costs are relatively higher in the Netherlands and Denmark, which subsidized high-priced PEVs including plug-in hybrids, and lower in the U.S., where PEVs replaced higher-emissions cars. Chinese PEV subsidies have a short-run static cost of up to $1,600 per tonne, far exceeding the social cost of carbon, suggesting that subsidies are more a part of China’s industrial policy than its carbon policy. When subsidy-induced PEV sales and power generation emissions are considered, the ordering of countries based on the cost-effectiveness of subsidies changes. The long-run dynamic subsidy cost is expected to be lower, as current subsidies may drive future innovation and sales, and due to grid decarbonization.

INSIGHTS INTO ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

The international share of plug-in electric vehicle sales was 8.6% in 2021, compared with South Africa’s 0.1%. Increasing the sale of these vehicles in South Africa is directly tied to the continued existence of South Africa’s vehicle manufacturing industry. To address this challenge, businesses and governments need to understand better the factors influencing electric vehicle adoption. This study identified significant factors that influence and are influenced by electric vehicle adoption. By reviewing the current literature, numerous factors were identified and mapped in a causal loop diagram with an adapted system dynamics approach. The impact of taxation on the cost of electric vehicles and the low availability of electricity negatively affects both consumer confidence in owning an electric vehicle and local manufacturing capacity. This model serves as a useful tool to piece together how various factors in South Africa affect and are affected by electric vehicle adoption.

Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work

• Neighborhood effect plays an important role in plug-in electric vehicle diffusion. • Peer effect at the workplace has an important impact on the diffusion process. • Positive effect of charging infrastructure on PEV sales. • Targeted policies like Clean Car 4All can encourage PEV adoption. The market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) --including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs)--has been rapidly growing in California for the past few years. Given the targets for PEV penetration in the state, it is important to have a better understanding of the pattern of technology diffusion and the factors that are driving the process. Using spatial analysis and Poisson count models we identify the importance of a neighborhood effect (at home locations) and a workplace effect (at commute destinations) in supporting the diffusion of PEV technology in California between 2014 and 2016. In the case of new BEV sales, we find that exposure to one additional BEV or PHEV within a 1-mile radius of a census block group centroid is associated with a 0.2% increase in BEV sales in the block group. Interestingly, for new PHEV sales- the neighborhood effect of BEV sales is negative, suggesting that enhanced exposure to this type of technology (which is differentiated in distinctive ways from PHEVs) may impact new PHEV sales through a substitution effect. Specifically, higher BEV concentration in an area can have an overall negative effect on new PHEV sales. While the neighborhood effect at residential locations is important, a workplace effect also has a notably important influence on new PEV sales. Both effects work in combination with socioeconomic, demographic, policy, and built environment factors in encouraging PEV adoption. These results, insightful not just for California but other regions in early phases of the PEV market, suggest that policymakers should consider targeted programs and investments that can attract a wider group of early adopters (in terms of sociodemographic characteristics and spatial location) to boost the impact of neighborhood and workplace effects on PEV sales.

Electric vehicle adoption: can short experiences lead to big change?

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) offer a promising pathway to decarbonizing the personal transportation sector, but PEV sales remains low. Prior research has found that direct experience with PEVs increases consumers’ stated purchase consideration, but these studies have used relatively long exposure times (days to months) with a PEV. To assess the effect of shorter exposure times (e.g. minutes) on stated purchase consideration, we conducted an experiment at the 2019 Washington D.C. Auto Show. Participants (n = 6518) were asked to rate their level of consideration to adopt a PEV before and after riding in one of four different PEVs for just 3–5 min. We find that the experience of riding in a PEV on average had a significant, positive effect on participants’ consideration ratings. We also find that the vast majority of respondents were unable to correctly answer basic knowledge questions about refueling a PEV and federal subsidies available for purchasing a PEV. These results suggest that while consumer knowledge about PEVs remains low, short rides or drives in a PEV could be an effective, more scalable strategy for increasing PEV consideration across larger populations.

Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification

Abstract Micro- and mild-hybridization (jointly labeled as M-HEV) is gaining popularity as a cost-effective technology for fuel economy improvement, but whether and how M-HEV may compete against less efficient conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), more efficient full hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is not well understood. This study aims at evaluating the impact of the market adoption of M-HEV on the average fuel economy of the new vehicle fleet and on the sales share of PEVs. The study reviews recent sales trends and market forecasts, and uses published estimates of manufacturing cost and fuel economy of M-HEV with an existing discrete choice model (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies or MA3T) to project the market penetration and impacts of M-HEV under different scenarios of M-HEV choice positions, designed to enhance conclusion robustness. It is found that among engine-based powertrain choices, micro-HEV appears to be the most cost-effective, followed by ICEVs, mild-HEV and finally full HEVs. M-HEV technologies are likely to improve fleetwide average fuel economy without significant adverse effects on sales of plug-in electric vehicles, and are likely to remain highly competitive outside PEVs through 2050.

Modeling charging infrastructure impact on the electric vehicle market in China

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is deemed as a critical technological revolution, and the governments are imposing various vehicle policies to promote its development. Meanwhile, the market success of PEVs depends on many aspects. This study integrates one’s use of charging infrastructure at home, public place and workplace into the market dynamics analysis tool, New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, to systematically assess the charging infrastructure (home parking ratio, public charging opportunity, and charging costs) impact on PEV ownership costs and analyze how the PEV market shares may be affected by the attributes of the charging infrastructure. Compared to the charging infrastructure, the impact of battery costs is incontrovertibly decisive on PEV market shares, the charging infrastructure is still non-negligible in the PEV market dynamics. The simulation results find that the public charging infrastructure has more effectiveness on promoting the PEV sales in the PEV emerging market than it does in the PEV mature market. However, the improvement of charging infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a larger PEV market if the charging infrastructure incentives do not coordinate well with other PEV policies. Besides, the increase of public charging opportunities has limited motivations on the growth of public PEV fleets, which are highly correlated to the number of public fast charging stations or outlets. It also finds that more home parking spaces can stimulate more sales of personal plug-in hybrid electric vehicles instead of personal battery electric vehicles.

Which plug-in electric vehicle policies are best? A multi-criteria evaluation framework applied to Canada

Policy is an important driver for the deployment of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Most PEV policy research focuses on effectiveness in the short-term, even though policymakers i) typically consider a wider range of evaluation criteria and ii) are setting PEV sales goals in the longer-term (e.g., 2030 or 2040). This study develops a more comprehensive evaluation framework, considering five criteria: (i) effectiveness at increasing PEV adoption in the long-term (2040), (ii) government spending, (iii) public support, (iv) policy simplicity and (v) “transformational signal”, the latter being a measure of a policy's ability to stimulate confidence and investment in a PEV transition. We apply this framework to Canada by assessing eight policy types implemented across the country, as well as stronger versions of each policy. We also illustrate trade-offs by constructing three policy packages with similar effectiveness (i.e., PEVs making up 40% of light-duty vehicle sales by 2040). These packages include strong financial incentives ($6,000 CAD per PEV for 20 years), a Zero-Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate (requiring 40% PEV sales by 2040), or strengthened light-duty vehicle emissions standards (decreasing to 71 g CO2e per km by 2040). These packages differ in terms of government expenditure, policy simplicity, public support and transformative signal. Our framework provides an accessible tool for policymakers to assess such tradeoffs with PEV-supportive policies and to identify approaches that best suit their jurisdiction.

Public charging infrastructure for plug-in electric vehicles: What is it worth?

Lack of charging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Public charging infrastructure has tangible and intangible value, such as reducing range anxiety or building confidence in the future of the PEV market. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure can inform analysis of investment decisions and can help predict the impact of charging infrastructure on future PEV sales. Estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) based on stated preference surveys are limited by consumers’ lack of familiarity with PEVs. As an alternative, we focus on quantifying the tangible value of public PEV chargers in terms of their ability to displace gasoline use for PHEVs and to enable additional electric (e−) vehicle miles for BEVs, thereby mitigating the limitations of shorter range and longer recharging time. Simulation studies provide data that can be used to quantify e-miles enabled by public chargers and the value of additional e-miles can be inferred from econometric estimates of WTP for increased vehicle range. Functions are synthesized that estimate the WTP for public charging infrastructure by plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, conditional on vehicle range, annual vehicle travel, pre-existing charging infrastructure, energy prices, vehicle efficiency, and household income. A case study based on California’s public charging network in 2017 indicates that, to the purchaser of a new BEV with a 100-mile range and home recharging, existing public fast chargers are worth about $1500 for intraregional travel, and fast chargers along intercity routes are valued at over $6500.

The impact of ambitious fuel economy standards on the market uptake of electric vehicles and specific CO2 emissions

Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles. CO2 emissions from transport have to be dramatically reduced to reach ambitious CO2 targets, but fuel economy standards below 75 gCO2/km (72.8 MPG) cannot be reached with combustion engine vehicles but require plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). However, the specific relationship between stringent fuel economy standards and PEV market share is unclear. Here, we analyse CO2 fleet targets in Europe where Regulation (EU) 2019/631 sets a target of 59.4 gCO2/km (90.9 MPG) in 2030. We use data of 3.2 million records with model-specific car sales in Europe from 2010 to 2016 to project future sales and CO2 emissions of all major vehicle manufacturers. We analyse the required PEV sales for these manufacturers to fulfill the CO2 targets and compare them to the manufacturers' announced sales targets. Our results demonstrate that regulation's target leads to PEV sales shares between 27 and 41% in 2030. The lower value is required if all manufacturers only sell BEV and the upper if only PHEV. In conclusion, ambitious CO2 fleet regulation leads to fast market diffusion of PEVs, but the current regulation is less ambitious than car maker targets in 2025.

How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), both as battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have noteworthy potential to reduce global and local emissions. However, several barriers still hinder a fast market diffusion of this new technology. Governments around the world have implemented monetary and non-monetary policies to accelerate PEV market diffusion. Their effectiveness is established in the literature, yet the effect size has been only scarcely estimated empirically and only for the US. Here, we review econometric studies on the effect size of purchase incentives and analyse data on PEV sales from 32 European countries from 2010 to 2017 with respect to the effect of financial incentives. We apply panel data regressions and control for other factors such as income and fuel prices. We find energy prices and financial incentives to influence PEV adoption positively. The range of point estimates for the effect of incentives is 5–7% relative sales share increase in different model specifications. Methodologically, the inclusion of a trend variable proved important to capture overall changes in the diffusion of this new technology. Our findings indicate that financial incentives have an impact on PEV sales and thus can facilitate their diffusion.

Free Charging: Exploratory Study of Its Impact on Electric Vehicle Sales and Energy

This paper explores the feasibility of further research into providing free public charging services. Charging behavior research has noted some increased usage of free charging facilities, but inferential analysis has not studied whether this increased usage is a result of decreased price solely or free is a special price. Recent research in other fields, such as behavioral economics and marketing, has analyzed whether people’s decision process varies between when a product’s price is “free” and when it has a positive price. Laboratory and field experiments have found that people treat zero as a special price and obtain additional benefit from purchasing a free product or obtaining a free product in a bundle. Because of a lack of data and study in the electric vehicle area, evaluating the effectiveness of free charging programs is currently difficult. This paper explores potential impacts of free charging on plug-in electric vehicle adoption by integrating empirical findings in marketing research with consumer choice modeling. A behavioral framework is proposed to represent the perceived benefit from free charging events. The Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model was modified to incorporate a value of free from free charging events. Results show that a short-term free public charging program could possibly increase plug-in electric vehicle sales, decrease oil consumption, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions at an efficient cost–benefit rate. This exploratory work motivates further study and the paper concludes with a discussion of research programs that could be used to determine a valuation for free charging.

An early look at plug-in electric vehicle adoption in disadvantaged communities in California

Prior research on plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption has revealed that early adopters tend to be wealthy consumers, this may mean that the benefits of PEVs are not being equitably distributed. Extensive research has shown that low-income and minority commutes are disproportionately impacted by environmental and transportation injustice. PEVs can contribute to importing air quality and could provide lower cost and more reliable transportation to low-income and minority communities if they are deployed there. This paper takes an early quantitative look at PEV adoption in disadvantaged communities (DACs), which are census tracts in California that suffer from a combination of economic barriers and environmental burden. We use six datasets to examine PEV market share, socioeconomic characteristics of PEV owners, and PEV charging infrastructure. Analysis confirms that adoption of both new and used PEVs in DACs occurs at very low rates - 5.7% and 8.7% of all PEV sales, respectively - that are disproportionate with the number of households that reside in these areas. Owners of new or used PEVs in DACs have slightly lower incomes than PEV owners in non-disadvantaged communities. However, as a group they have higher incomes, are higher educated, and fewer are home-renters than the DAC average, indicating that they are not representative of their surrounding community. Encouragingly, charging infrastructure is present in DAC census tracts, suggesting that further PEV adoption could be supported. Additionally, there are higher proportions of used PEVs in DACs than new PEVs, which may indicate potential for adoption of these lower-priced vehicles, however rates of adoption are still low. Despite the considerable benefits that PEVs could offer in DACs, there are still substantial barriers to PEV. Key barriers for policy-makers to continually address are the prohibitive price of the technology, lack of knowledge about or ease of accessing PEV incentives, and lack of access to public or private charging infrastructure located near multi-unit housing.

Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program

AbstractThe biogas‐to‐electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) allows for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be generated when electricity produced from biogas is used in the transportation sector. Though approved as a general pathway, EPA has proposed multiple credit allocation methods to functionalize this pathway. This study describes and evaluates a potential credit allocation framework where vehicle manufacturers generate electricity RIN (E‐RIN) credits and use these credits to increase the sales of plug‐in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under this framework, manufacturers use part of the credit value to reimburse electricity generators, offsetting potential higher biogas electricity generation cost. The remaining credit value is passed on to consumers as an annual PEV rebate to stimulate PEV sales. An iterative simulation framework is developed to fulfill two tasks: (a) to estimate the annual rebate amounts and their upfront value to consumers based on various factors, such as vehicle mileage, E‐RIN equivalence value, and biogas capacity, and (b) to evaluate potential impacts of the E‐RIN program on electrification of the future light‐duty vehicles (LDVs) and energy use. The annual rebate amount varies by vehicle technology and could be up to $870/year for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and range between $230 and 825/year for plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) depending on the electric range. These per vehicle rebates decrease when demand for electricity exceeds biogas electricity availability. The effectiveness of the program as modeled here is subject to different factors, such as the E‐RIN equivalence value, biogas electricity generation cost, biogas electricity generation capacity, and consumers’ valuation of the E‐RIN rebate. Our modeling results indicate that an E‐RIN program has the potential to produce nearly $12 billion in E‐RIN credits annually and to significantly increase PEV annual sales by up to 2.3 million and the PEV population by about 19.7 million in 2030.

Can public slow charging accelerate plug-in electric vehicle sales? A simulation of charging infrastructure usage and its impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales for Germany

Alternative fuel vehicles face the lack of refueling infrastructure as one obstacle to market diffusion and potential operators of refueling stations await significant market shares before constructing a dense refueling network. The resulting lock-in effect or chicken-egg-problem has scarcely been analyzed for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) up to now. The research question of this article is How much public charging infrastructure for PEVs is needed and is there mutual interaction in the diffusion of public charging infrastructure and electric vehicles?Here, we present an agent-based market diffusion model for PEVs and their charging infrastructure that is based on a large number of individual driving profiles for private and commercial car holders in Germany. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a market diffusion in Germany without any slow public charging infrastructure until 2030. Although a charging point at home is obligatory for early adopters, the second-best option for an infrastructure set-up is at work where the majority of vehicles is parked for a long time during the day, the installation is not costly and users profit more than from public facilities. Public slow charging facilities do not increase PEV market shares and they need to be subsidized for a long time.

Reaching 30% plug-in vehicle sales by 2030: Modeling incentive and sales mandate strategies in Canada

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could play a strong role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, leading some governments to set the goal of PEVs accounting for 30% of new sales by 2030 (e.g., the “EV30@30” campaign). To explore the feasibility of this goal, we use a behaviourally-realistic vehicle adoption model (REPAC) to simulate the impacts of incentives and vehicle mandates on PEV sales over this time frame, using the case study of Canada. We consider a range of technology assumptions, including optimistic and pessimistic battery cost scenarios ($CDN 85/kWh and $CDN 125/kWh, respectively, by 2030). We find that the country’s present policies can only induce PEVs to reach 5–11% new market share by 2030. Without changes in PEV supply, we find that purchase incentives can boost PEV new market share, where a $CDN 6000/vehicle subsidy is needed for 13 years to reach the 2030 goal (in the median technology assumption scenario). We also model ZEV mandate scenarios where automakers must reach 30% or 40% PEV sales by 2030, finding that compliance with both is achievable even in pessimistic technology scenarios, through a combination of increased PEV model availability and intra-firm cross-price subsidies. While incentive-based or mandate-based strategies (or some combination thereof) can achieve 2030 goals, results demonstrate the high government expenditure involved in an incentive-based strategy -- $CDN 15–48 billion undiscounted ($10–28 billion discounted), or around $9000–10,000 per added PEV sale. Policymakers ought to consider these tradeoffs, among others, when designing PEV-supportive policies to achieve long-term climate goals.

Insights into the characteristics of technologies and industrialization for plug-in electric cars in China

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been seen by many countries as a solution to the fossil fuel consumption and urban air pollution problems of the transportation sector. PEV stocks climbed to 1 million in 2015 and doubled as of 2016. Although the global mass market is developing, developmental laws for the technologies and industrialization of PEVs still need to be identified. These laws are necessary for finding solution to the problems of PEV penetration in the future. On the basis of a characteristic analysis of global PEV marketing progress, it can be found that China is becoming the main player in PEV sales and market penetration. It has potential be the largest PEV market in the world in future. Although China has the advantages of market volume, there are still severe challenges for the further mass adoption of PEVs in China. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation on the evolution of China's PEV industry and technology is desirable as a foundation for identifying key problems regarding market penetration, so as to devise a long-term national PEV strategy. This study are performed based on detailed PEV marketing and technological data to present an in-depth view. A three-dimensional (market penetration rate, constitution, and concentration) evaluation method is proposed, and the market-acceptance indicators and cluster analysis method are used to analyze the correlations between the all-electric range (AER) of PEVs and market acceptance. This research allows us to draw several conclusions: (a) initial PEV market penetration depends mainly on fiscal incentive policies, which also strongly influences the technological roadmap for PECs; (b) A0-and A-class sedans are the dominant models for individuals, and small battery electric cars (BECs) will hold a large market share for a long time; (c) range-extended-type plug-in hybrid electric cars (PHECs) are suitable and competitive for Chinese local companies; and (d) the acceptable cost-benefit AERs are 150–170 km for privately purchased BECs. Electric taxis, however, require the AER to be over 300 km.

Symbolism, signs, and accounts of electric vehicles in California

Conceptual frameworks regarding the spread of new ideas and products through a relevant social group posit communication is necessary between those few group members who are first to act upon the new idea or product and the many more potential later actors. In the case of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), achieving potential social goals regarding human health, climate, air quality and energy requires many more households become PEV owners and users than have so far. Workshops were convened with PEV owners and owners of internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles (collectively, non-PEVs) in three regions throughout California representing different levels of PEV sales and charging infrastructure deployment. Participants guided the creation of their workshop’s agenda: non-PEV owners stated their questions about PEVs; PEV owners added more they wanted to tell about PEVs and about themselves becoming and being PEV owners. In the subsequent conversations, PEV owners constructed “accounts”—both in the sense of (informally) tallying the costs of buying a PEV and in the sense of telling a story of their lives with PEVs. Their storytelling conveyed the signs of PEVs: how PEVs, charging infrastructure, and incentives are (to PEV owners) an obvious suite of symbols and what those symbols mean (to PEV owners). In effect, the PEV owners teach the owners of non-PEVs a new symbol system and in doing so enhance the non-PEV owners’ ability to see, hear, and interpret the signs of PEVs. Routinely, but not universally, among the non-PEV owners learning the symbol system of PEVs produces more positive evaluations of PEVs.

The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China

The Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation (dual-credit policy) was enacted by the Chinese government in 2017 to stimulate the fuel-efficient and electrification technologies in the China's passenger vehicle market. This study summarizes the dual-credit policy and develops the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits Model to quantify the impacts of this policy on consumer choices and industry profits, where internal subsidies as decision variables are used to represent industry responses to the policy. Scenarios in 2016–2020 are simulated and discussed. Key findings from the model results include: (1) the Corporate Average Fuel Consumption rules alone may stimulate more plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales than the dual-credit policy; however, (2) the dual-credit policy could stimulate more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in market, compared to other policy scenarios; (3) the industry could “lose” approximately $2122/vehicle by 2020 under the dual-credit policy; (4) battery electric sedans with a range greater than 250 km and plug-in hybrid SUVs could be popular under the dual-credit policy; (5) credit allocations for BEVs in the dual-credit policy can influence the PEV production; and (6) reduction of the fuel-efficient technology costs helps to minimize profit losses impacted by the policy.

Quantitative analysis of the public charging-point evolution: A demand-driven spatial modeling approach

The coverage standard of the current publicly accessible charging infrastructure is insufficient and considered as a major obstacle in the introduction to the market of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Therefore, it is necessary to establish a publicly accessible charging infrastructure that features an appropriate coverage standard. The aim of this study is to support a spatially differentiated and demand-driven infrastructure development that ensures a desired coverage standard. For this purpose, we developed a calculation model which is applied to cumulated PEV sales and the inventory of publicly accessible charging points, in Germany with the spatial resolution of administrative districts. The required public charging-point evolution until 2040 is calculated for a given PEV market diffusion. In 2015, an appropriate coverage standard was achieved in only some regions of Germany; this means that the probability of finding access to a free public charging point at the desired time of charging is at least 90%. When one considers the entire country, however, it becomes clear that an additional 3600 publicly available charging points are needed. By 2040, the provision of approximately 730,000 public charging points could ensure an appropriate coverage standard for an estimated 17.8 million PEVs. The study results show that the rate of public charging-point deployment can decrease once PEV sales increase. The economically feasible operation of public charging infrastructure highly depends on the average utilization rate and it appears to be challenging to reach profitability by only selling the electricity.