Plate Boundary Research Articles

Geodetic Strain Rates for the 2022 Update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT Geodetic data in plate boundary zones reflect the accrual of tectonic strain and stress, which will ultimately be released in earthquakes, and so they can provide valuable insights into future seismic hazards. To incorporate geodetic measurements of contemporary deformation into the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022), we derive a range of strain-rate models from published interseismic Global Navigation Satellite Systems velocities for New Zealand. We calculate the uncertainty in strain rate excluding strain from the Taupō rift–Havre trough and Hikurangi subduction zone, which are handled separately, and the corresponding moment rates. A high shear strain rate occurs along the Alpine fault and the North Island dextral fault belt, as well as the eastern coast of the North Island. Dilatation rates are primarily contractional in the South Island and less well constrained in the North Island. Total moment accumulation derived using Kostrov-type summation varies from 0.64 to 2.93×1019  N·m/yr depending on method and parameter choices. To account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the strain-rate results, we use four different methods for estimating strain rate and calculate various average models and uncertainty metrics. The maximum shear strain rate is similar across all methods, whereas the dilatation rate and overall strain rate style differ more significantly. Each method provides an estimate of its own uncertainty propagated from the data uncertainties, and variability between methods provides an additional estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty in New Zealand tends to be higher than the aleatory uncertainty estimates provided by any single method, and epistemic uncertainty on dilatation rate exceeds the aleatory uncertainty nearly everywhere. These strain-rate models were provided to the NZ NSHM 2022 team and used to develop fault-slip deficit rate models and scaled seismicity rate models.

Heterogeneous Crustal Structure of the Hikurangi Plateau Revealed by SHIRE Seismic Data: Origin and Implications for Plate Boundary Tectonics

AbstractMarine multichannel and wide‐angle seismic data constrain the distribution of seamounts, sediment cover sequence and crustal structure along a 460 km margin‐parallel transect of the Hikurangi Plateau. Seismic reflection data reveals five seamount up‐to 4.5 km high and 35–75 km wide, with heterogeneous internal velocity structure. Sediment cover decreases south‐to‐north from ∼4.5 km to ∼1–2 km. The Hikurangi Plateau crust (VP 5.5–7.5 km/s) is 11 ± 1 km thick in the south, but thins by 3–4 km further north (∼7–8 km). Gravity models constructed along two seismic lines show the reduction in crustal thickness persists further east, coinciding with a bathymetric scarp. Gravity data suggest the transition in crustal thickness may reflect spatial variability in deformation and lithospheric extension associated with plateau breakup. Variability in the thickness of subducting crust may contribute to differences in megathrust geometry, upper‐plate stress state and high‐rates of contraction and uplift along the southern Hikurangi margin.

Late Quaternary deformation in the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault (North Evia, Greece): Insights from very high-resolution seismic data (WATER surveys)

Since the Pliocene, rift basins have developed in the North Evia region at the south-western extension of the North Anatolian Fault. North Evia, therefore, is a key area for investigating Plio-Quaternary deformation within the diffuse Anatolian-Aegean–Eurasian plate boundary. In this study, we present a detailed map of offshore faults in the North Evia region based on three seismic reflection surveys: an airgun (2004) and two very high-resolution Sparker (2017 and 2021) single-channel surveys. Careful and systematic interpretation of these datasets revealed i) the identification of a new basin (Skiathos Basin) located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault and ii) two main fault sets striking oblique to the active N–S-directed extension. The seismicity analysis of the study area reveals pure strike-slip displacements along faults previously identified as normal. The NW–SE-striking faults bordering the North Evia Gulf rift are characterised by left-lateral displacements, and the NE–SW faults present dextral focal mechanisms, following the kinematic character of the North Anatolian Fault. We show that dextral strike-slip deformation recently occurred (in the late Quaternary) in the south-western extension of the North Anatolian Fault, suggesting the significant role of this fault system in the complex structural development of the North Evia region.

Double distance dependence in high-frequency ground motion along the plate boundary in Northern Chile

In subduction zones, the forearc crust transitions from a highly fractured wedge near the trench to a less fractured basement near the volcanic arc. Here we study the role of wedge integrity on the frequency content of strong ground motion produced by subduction earthquakes in Northern Chile. Our data includes aftershocks from the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique earthquake and intermediate-depth seismicity, including the 2005 Mw 7.6 Tarapacá earthquake. We focus on the S-wave spectral decay parameter κ obtained from strong ground motion in the frequency band 2−40Hz, paying particular attention to how κ varies with hypocentral distance. We report two distinct trends of κ versus hypocentral distance. One trend applies to events near the trench, where we observe a rapid increase of κ with hypocentral distance. Another trend applies to events near the bottom of the megathrust and greater depths, where we observe a relatively slow increase of κ with hypocentral distance. We interpret this difference as resulting from a heterogeneous tectonic structure with lateral variations in anelastic attenuation (i.e., attenuation seems stronger in the fractured wedge near the trench). Our results improve our understanding of the role of high-frequency ground motion in seismic hazard analysis near the Chilean coastline. In addition, our results stress the need for a better characterization of anelastic attenuation in the Chilean subduction zone, specially close to the highly fractured wedge near the trench.

Decoding subcontinental lithosphere processes: The key role of fractional crystallization in Central Andes monogenetic volcanism - Insight from El Negrillar volcanic field, Chile

Subduction zones are complex geodynamic settings in which volcanic arcs form due to the interaction between subducting slabs, water, and continental materials. Investigating this extensive Earth recycling system offers valuable insights into the exchange of materials between the crust and mantle. While previous research has primarily focused on analyzing polygenetic volcanoes to explore this interaction, monogenetic volcanic fields (MVF) present an opportunity to delve into the mechanisms operating within the upper and lower mantle. Monogenetic volcanoes are a class of volcanoes that are typically smaller in size but showcase a range of eruptive styles and compositions. These volcanoes can be found in various locations along the arc, including the main Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) (arc-front volcanoes), and even far from the tectonic plate boundaries in the back-arc region (intraplate volcanism).We carried out a detailed geochemical study of El Negrillar (EN) MVF, located in the Central Andes main-arc, on the Altiplano-Puna Plateau's southwestern border. The volcanic field has 35 eruptive centers and a total of 86 eruptive phases originating from its three clusters: Northern, Central, and Southern. EN magmas range in composition from basaltic andesite to dacite and have produced over 6.8 km3 (DRE) of lava and pyroclastic material, which makes it the most voluminous volcanic field in the Central Andes, and therefore, an excellent example to study MVF in arc-systems. We have conducted an extensive study encompassing major and trace elements, as well as isotopic analysis using whole rock Sr-Nd-Pb. We also present an analysis of our results with available geochemical data from the back-arc and main-arc volcanoes, including other monogenetic volcanoes near EN (<80 km, EN's neighbors). The results revealed that EN magmas and their neighbors are strongly related and exhibit a clear similarity in major and trace element compositions and isotopic ratios, indicating a common source and origin of their melts. Our comparison across the arc surprisingly reveals similarities between EN and back-arc monogenetic volcanism. Both regions indicate geochemical signatures that do not support melting via slab metasomatism, typical of subduction zones. Instead, they show low Th/Ce (<0.1 ppm) and Ba/La (<30 ppm) and high Ce/Pb (>6 ppm), Ba/Th (>100 ppm), high 143Nd/144Nd > 0.51240, and La/Yb ratios at a given La/Sm compared to the main-arc polygenetic volcanoes. Interestingly, EN also exhibits adakite-like signatures with increasing SiO2 content (high Sr > 600 ppm, Sr/Y > 40, and high La/Yb > 20), a term used for igneous rock suites with chemical characteristics that are identical to those of adakites but produced through petrogenetic processes that do not include a slab component. We explore how fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation participate in the development of monogenetic volcanoes, and our findings underscore the significant influence of fractional crystallization on the monogenetic volcanic processes in the Salar de Atacama region. The geochemical changes observed in this area can be attributed to a combination of varying degrees of fractional crystallization within magmas generated through the partial melting of a garnet-enriched environment, which could be primary lower crust or partial melting of a peridotite mantle that has later equilibrated with garnet-bearing crustal melts.

Crustal block-controlled contrasts in deformation, uplift, and exhumation in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California, USA, imaged through apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology and 3-D geological modeling

Deformation along strike-slip plate margins often accumulates within structurally partitioned and rheologically heterogeneous crustal blocks within the plate boundary. In these cases, contrasts in the physical properties and state of juxtaposed crustal blocks may play an important role in accommodation of deformation. Near the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA, the Pacific−North American plate-bounding San Andreas fault bisects the Santa Cruz Mountains (SCM), which host numerous distinct, fault-bounded lithotectonic blocks that surround the San Andreas fault zone. In the SCM, a restraining bend in the San Andreas fault (the SCM bend) caused recent uplift of the mountain range since ca. 4 Ma. To understand how rheologic heterogeneity within a complex fault zone might influence deformation, we quantified plausible bounds on deformation and uplift across two adjacent SCM lithotectonic blocks on the Pacific Plate whose stratigraphic and tectonic histories differ. This was accomplished by combining 31 new apatite (U-Th)/He ages with existing thermochronological datasets to constrain exhumation of these two blocks. Additionally, surface exposures of the latest Miocene to late Pliocene Purisima Formation interpreted in 18 structural cross sections spanning the SCM allowed construction and restoration of Pliocene deformation in a three-dimensional geologic model. We found that rock uplift and deformation concentrated within individual Pacific Plate lithotectonic blocks in the SCM. Since 4 Ma, maximum principal strain computed for the more deformed block adjacent to the fault exceeded that computed for the less deformed block by at least 375%, and cumulative uplift has been more spatially extensive and higher in magnitude. We attribute the difference in uplift and deformation between the two blocks primarily to contrasts in lithotectonic structure, which resulted from diverging geologic histories along the evolving plate boundary.

A 5000 yr record of coastal uplift and subsidence reveals multiple source faults for past earthquakes on the central Hikurangi margin, New Zealand

Prehistoric records of subduction earthquakes are often distinguished by evidence of synchronous widespread coastal deformation, the extent of which negates the plausibility of alternative source faults. At the Hikurangi subduction margin in New Zealand, untangling the record of subduction interface ruptures is complicated. Large earthquake age uncertainties inhibit unique solutions of along-strike correlations, and complex patterns of coastal deformation caused by upper-plate faulting prevent reliable indication of source faults. In this work, we improved paleoearthquake reconstructions on the central Hikurangi margin with a new, well-constrained 5000 yr earthquake record from Pakuratahi Valley near Napier, North Island, New Zealand. Evidence of laterally extensive paleoenvironmental changes is consistent with coseismic subsidence and coseismic uplift in large earthquakes. Radiocarbon dates on fragile terrestrial macrofossils and tephra isochrons were used to construct robust age models that yielded earthquake ages of 4839−4601 calibrated (cal.) yr B.P., 3630−3564 cal. yr B.P., 2687−2439 cal. yr B.P., and 1228−823 cal. yr B.P. Integration of these ages with refined earthquake chronology from nearby Ahuriri Lagoon indicated that the next large earthquake impacting the Napier area is more likely to cause coastal subsidence than uplift. Drawing on correlations with cotemporal evidence elsewhere on the central margin, we infer that the overall patterns of coseismic deformation could be generated by either rupture of the subduction interface or upper-plate faults, or both. This inability to separate source faults for past earthquakes limits the efficiency of forecasting future earthquakes. Similar problems of intertwined paleoearthquake signatures likely apply to other plate boundaries, where we recommend cautious interpretation of coastal deformation to accurately address the hazard from both types of source faults.

Thermodynamics of continental deformation

Continental deformation is known to be controlled by the interplay between tectonic and gravitational forces modulated by thermal relaxation-controlled lithospheric strength leading to oscillations around an equilibrium state, or to runaway extension. Using data-driven thermomechanical modelling of the Alpine Himalayan Collision Zone, we demonstrate how deviations from an equilibrium between mantle dynamics, plate-boundary forces, and the thermochemical configuration of the lithosphere control continental deformation. We quantify such balance between the internal energy of the plate and tectonic forces in terms of a critical crustal thickness, that match the global average of present-day continental crust. It follows that thicker intraplate domains than the critical crust (orogens) must undergo weakening due to their increased internal energy, and, in doing so, they dissipate the acquired energy within a diffused zone of deformation, unlike the localized deformation seen along plate boundaries. This evolution is controlled by a dissipative thermodynamic feedback loop between thermal and mechanical relaxation of the driving energy in the orogenic lithosphere. Exponentially growing energy states, leading to runaway extension are efficiently dampened by enhanced dissipation from radioactive heat sources. This ultimately drives orogens with their thickened radiogenic crust towards a final equilibrium state. Our results suggest a genetic link between the thermochemical state of the crust and the tectonic evolution of silicate Earth-like planets.

Proposal of a modified classification for hilar cholangiocarcinoma

Abstract Hilar cholangiocarcinoma is a malignant tumor that originates from the left and right hepatic ducts and their confluence. It is highly malignant and associated with a poor prognosis. Surgical resection is the only available curative treatment option. A scientific classification system can aid in the preoperative assessment of resectability and guide the development of appropriate surgical strategies. Several classification systems are available, with the Bismuth-Corlette (BC) classification being the earliest and most widely used. Similar to many other classifications, the BC classification relies on the secondary branching of the bile ducts as an important anatomical landmark, making it unsuitable for cases with variations in the bile duct anatomy. With advances in understanding the hepatic plate and anatomical structures at the hilum, the secondary bile ducts are no longer considered important anatomical landmarks. Therefore, modifications to the BC classification are needed to align with modern anatomical improvements and advancements in surgical techniques. Herein, we propose a modification to the BC classification. In this new system, the boundary of the hilar plate is considered as limit of the proximal ductal margin and used as an anatomical landmark, rather than the concept of “secondary bile ducts” in the BC classification.

Co-seismic surface displacement of the June 21, 2022 MW6 Khōst, Afghanistan earthquake from InSAR observations

A robust estimation of the earthquake location, seismic moment, and fault geometry is essential for objective seismic hazard assessment. Seismic events in a remote location, specifically in the absence of seismic and GNSS networks, can be investigated effectively using the InSAR-based technique. This study adopts the Differential Interferometric SAR (DInSAR) technique to quantify the co-seismic surface displacement caused by the June 21, 2022, Khōst MW6 earthquake that occurred along the western plate boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plate. The interferograms show that the maximum surface deformation occurred on the northwest and southwest of the fault line. From coherence, the Line of Sight (LOS) displacement, and the co-seismic surface displacement analysis, it has been observed that surface deformation was most pronounced in the southwest region of the fault line, and the surface has moved to the opposite direction along the fault line, which indicates a sinistral slightly oblique strike-slip movement. This InSAR-based observation appears consistent with the seismic waveforms derived from co-seismic surface displacements. Further, it has been argued that the slip deficit accumulated during the period of the last about 48 years along the frontal region of the northward extension of the Suleiman range and associated fault zone is qualitatively estimated at about 1.5 m, which is consistent with the seismic waveforms derived finite slip model.

An adjoint-based optimization method for jointly inverting heterogeneous material properties and fault slip from earthquake surface deformation data

SUMMARY Analysis of tectonic and earthquake-cycle associated deformation of the crust can provide valuable insights into the underlying deformation processes including fault slip. How those processes are expressed at the surface depends on the lateral and depth variations of rock properties. The effect of such variations is often tested by forward models based on a priori geological or geophysical information. Here, we first develop a novel technique based on an open-source finite-element computational framework to invert geodetic constraints directly for heterogeneous media properties. We focus on the elastic, coseismic problem and seek to constrain variations in shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio, proxies for the effects of lithology and/or temperature and porous flow, respectively. The corresponding nonlinear inversion is implemented using adjoint-based optimization that efficiently reduces the cost function that includes the misfit between the calculated and observed displacements and a penalty term. We then extend our theoretical and numerical framework to simultaneously infer both heterogeneous Earth’s structure and fault slip from surface deformation. Based on a range of 2-D synthetic cases, we find that both model parameters can be satisfactorily estimated for the megathrust setting-inspired test problems considered. Within limits, this is the case even in the presence of noise and if the fault geometry is not perfectly known. Our method lays the foundation for a future reassessment of the information contained in increasingly data-rich settings, for example, geodetic GNSS constraints for large earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki M9 event, or distributed deformation along plate boundaries as constrained from InSAR.

Persistent asperities at the Kermadec subduction zone controlled by changes in forearc structure: 1976 and 2021 doublet earthquakes

To what degree large earthquakes are ‘characteristic’ is a critical question in understanding the fundamentals of earthquake physics and the seismic cycle. Here we study the ruptures of the 2021 Mw7.4 and Mw8.1 doublet earthquake sequence in the Kermadec subduction zone and compare them with the 1976 doublet that occurred at the same location. We find that although the 2021 mainshock likely re-ruptured the same asperity as the 1976 Mw7.9 event, the detailed slip distribution is different. Other ruptures in the doublets also differ in character and location. Our observations indicate the variability between large earthquakes on the same segment of the plate boundary in each earthquake cycle. All earthquakes occur in an isolated area of the megathrust, which is bounded by changes in the lithospheric structure of the overriding plate as indicated by bathymetric and gravity data. This high-seismicity region is coincident with an isolated forearc sedimentary basin, possibly formed by basal erosion related to seismogenesis, suggesting that seismic slip has persisted here for several million years. Refined up-dip aftershock and background seismicity focal mechanisms have a steeper dip angle than the slab interface, suggesting these events are located within the subducting oceanic slab, possibly forming a rougher plate interface that facilitates basal erosion. We conclude that the stress heterogeneity within this bounded seismogenic zone is long-lived and has produced a rich spectrum of earthquake ruptures.

The 2021–2022 Genoa seismic sequences reveal distributed strike-slip deformation in the Alps-Apennines transition zone, NW Italy

The complex tectonic evolution of the Alps-Apennines transition zone in NW Italy is still a matter of debate. In this work, we analyze the 2021–2022 seismic sequences around Genoa to understand how convergence between Africa and Europe is presently accommodated across the Alps-Apennines transition zone. The map-view distribution of HypoDD-relocated seismic events reveals a NE-SW alignment for the Savignone seismic sequence, and NNW-SSE alignments for the Borzonasca and Bargagli sequences. The Borzonasca seismic sequence plots in correspondence of the Villalvernia-Varzi-Ottone Fault, which is often considered as the boundary between the Alps and the Apennines, whereas no seismicity is documented along the Sestri-Voltaggio Fault. The main-shock focal solutions are invariably strike-slip, with near-vertical NNW-SSE and NE-SW to ENE-WSW nodal planes. The evident earthquake alignments in the study area mark active, km-scale fault planes in the upper crust, pointing to a scenario of distributed strike-slip deformation in the transition zone between the Alps and the Apennines. The NE-SW faults are inherited structures that underwent major Neogene rotations and are no longer suitably oriented to accommodate the northward motion of Adria relative to Europe. The Bargagli seismic sequence may reflect the formation of new NNW-SSE strike-slip faults in the upper crust that are more suitably oriented to accommodate the present-day stress field, consistent with the seismotectonic framework outlined by recent works in the nearby regions of the Adria-Europe plate-boundary zone. Our results highlight the important role of strike-slip faulting in the Adria-Europe plate boundary zone not only in the past, but also during its present-day evolution.

Deformation of the Juan de Fuca Plate Beneath the Central Cascadia Continental Margin (44°-45°N) in Response to an Upper Plate Load

A 3D crustal model for the central Cascadia continental shelf and Coast Range between 44°N and 45°N shows that the crystalline crust of the forearc wedge beneath the coastline is characterized by a NW-trending, vertical slab of high-velocity rock interpreted to represent the dike complex that fed the Yachats Basalt, which was intruded into the forearc approximately 37 million years ago. A spatial correlation is observed between downward deflection of the crust of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, inferred from inversion of PmP arrivals to image the Moho surface, and the high velocity (and consequently high density) anomaly underlying the Yachats Basalt. Apparent subsequent rebound of the subducting plate at greater depth suggests a primarily elastic response of the subducting plate to this load. Calculations for a range of plausible values for the magnitude of the load and the width and depth of the depression indicate that the effective elastic thickness of the subducted Juan de Fuca plate is &amp;lt; 6 km. Although our simple analytical models do not include partial support of the load of the slab by the adjacent upper plate crust or time dependence to account for the motion of the slab beneath the load, incorporation of those effects should decrease rather than increase the apparent strength of the subducted plate. We conclude that the subducted Juan de Fuca plate beneath the central Oregon margin is elastically thin and has the potential to store elastic strain energy before rupturing. Our model of a well-defined, focused and static upper plate load that locally deforms the subducted plate within the nominally seismogenic or transitional part of the Cascadia plate boundary may be unique in providing a relatively straightforward scenario for estimating the mechanical properties of the subducted Juan de Fuca plate. We extrapolate from these results to speculate that elastic deformation of the subducting plate may contribute to the low level of seismicity throughout much of the Cascadia forearc in the inter-seismic period between great earthquakes but note that our local results do not preclude faulting or elasto-plastic deformation of a thin and weak plate as it subducts. These results also suggest that the subducting plate should deform in response to larger scale variations in upper plate thickness and density.

Lower Crustal Rheology Controls Strain Partitioning and Mode of Intracontinental Deformation

AbstractThe factors that control strain partitioning along plate boundaries and within continental interiors remains poorly resolved. Plate convergence may be accommodated via distributed crustal shortening or discrete crustal‐scale strike‐slip faulting, but what controls these differing modes of deformation is debated. Here we address this question by examining the actively deforming regions that surround the Tarim Basin in central Asia, where deformation is uniquely partitioned into predominately strike‐slip faults in the east and distributed fold‐thrust belts in the west to accommodate Cenozoic India‐Asia plate convergence. We present integrated geological and geophysical observations to elucidate patterns in crustal deformation and compositional structure in and around the Tarim Basin. The thrust‐dominated western Tarim Basin correlates with a strongly‐magnetic lower crust, whereas strike‐slip faulting along the eastern margins of the Tarim Basin lack such magnetic signals. We suggest that the lower crust of the western Tarim is more mafic and stronger than in the east, which impacts intra‐plate strain partitioning. A stronger lower crust results in vertical decoupling to drive mid‐crust horizontal detachments and facilitate thrust faulting, whereas a more homogenized crust favored vertical transcrustal strike‐slip faulting. These rheological differences likely originated from the impingement of the Permian Tarim plume focused in the west. A comparison with the Longmen Shan of eastern Tibetan Plateau reveals remarkably similar strain partitioning that correlates with variations in foreland rheology. Our results highlight how variations in lower‐crust viscosity impact strain partitioning in an intra‐plate setting and how plume processes exert a strong control on later continental tectonic processes.

Deep Seismic Reflection Imaging of Mesozoic Kachchh Rift, NW India: Implications for Evolution

AbstractDeep crustal seismic reflection profiling is carried out for first time across various tectonic domains of seismically active Mesozoic Kachchh rift basin, formed during the breakup of Gondwanaland. The seismic data, processed using the common reflection surface stack approach, provided maiden images of the shallow and deep sub‐surface structures in the region. These images reveal a 15 km thick subhorizontal lower crustal reflection fabric and crustal‐scale domal‐type structure extending from the surface to the Moho. We interpret the earlier structure represent magmatic underplating and the latter as the Kachchh Mainland uplift. We find large variations in the thickness of sediments from 150 m to 6.5 km and crustal thickness from 45 to 35 km from north to south, with a Moho up warp of 4 km beneath the Kachchh Mainland fault. The Kachchh rift basin exhibits an unusually thick crust of 45 km, contrary to many rift basins. We interpret the syn‐rifting and the Reunion mantle plume activity, manifested as Deccan volcanics, are responsible for magmatic underplating and crustal thickening. Uplift in the region is multi‐genetic in origin. Present study illuminated new faults and nature of various other faults. Moderate to large earthquakes in the region are attributed to the regional and local stresses resulting from the plate boundary and heterogeneous crustal structure. Based on the mafic lower crust and distribution of aftershocks through the entire crust, we interpret the lower crust is brittle, contrary to most models of continental rheology.

The role of continental lithospheric thermal structure in the evolution of orogenic systems: application to the Himalayan–Tibetan collision zone

Abstract. Continental collision is a crucial process in plate tectonics. However, in terms of the evolution and the controlling parameters of its lateral heterogeneity, our understanding of the tectonic complexities at such a convergent plate boundary remains largely unclear. In this study, we conducted a series of two-dimensional numerical experiments to investigate how continental lithospheric thermal structure influences the development of lateral heterogeneity along the continental collision zone. The following two end-members were achieved. First, continuous subduction mode, which prevails when the model has a cold procontinental Moho temperature (≤450 ∘C). In this case, a narrow collision orogen develops, and the subducting angle steepens with the increasing retrocontinental Moho temperature. Second, continental subduction with a slab break-off, which generates a relative wide collision orogen and dominates when the model has a relatively hot procontinental Moho temperature (≥500 ∘C), especially when the Moho temperature ≥ 550 ∘C. Radioactive heat production is the second-order controlling parameter in varying the continental collision mode, while it prefers to enhance strain localization in the upper part of the continental lithosphere and promote the growth of shear zones there. By comparing the model results with geological observations, we suggest that the discrepant evolutionary paths from the continuous subduction underlying the Hindu Kush to the continental subduction after slab break-off beneath eastern Tibet may originate from the inherited lateral inhomogeneity of the Indian lithospheric thermal structure. Besides, the high content of crustal radioactive elements may be one of the most important factors that controls the formation of large thrust fault zones in the Himalayas.

Present-Day Crustal Deformation of the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau Based on InSAR Measurements

In this study, The ENVISAT advanced synthetic aperture radar observations from 2003 to 2010 of a descending track covering an area of 100 km × 300 km were used to map the surface velocity field in northwestern Tibet. The derived line-of-sight (LOS) velocity map revealed that interseismic deformation was mainly located on the Altyn Tagh Fault (ATF) and other four immature subsidiary faults (i.e., Tashikule Fault, Muzitage-jingyuhe Fault, Heishibeihu Fault, and Woniuhu Fault). A 2D elastic screw dislocation model was used to interpret the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) velocity profiles, which revealed the following results. (a) The oblique movement is partitioned between left-lateral slip at a rate of 6.3 ± 1.4 mm/y on the ATF and 5.9 ± 2.8 mm/y on the subsidiary faults. The low slip rate of the ATF indicates that the ATF does not drive the northeastward extrusion of material, with most of the extrusion occurring in the eastern interior of the plateau and the four subsidiary faults localizing the oblique convergence partitioned in the west. This can reasonably explain why catastrophic earthquakes and rapid slip do not occur all over along the ATF. (b) Based on the four subsidiary faults accommodating the oblique movement and the traces amalgamation with the EKLF (delineated Bayan Har plate boundary to the northeast), we concluded guardedly that the four subsidiary faults are the evoluting plate boundary of the Bayan Har block to the northwest. (c) The Tanan top-up structure had an uplift rate of ~0.6 mm/y at the south of the Tarim Basin.

Long-term patterns of earthquakes influenced by climate change: Insights from earthquake recurrence and stress field changes across the Korean Peninsula during interglacial periods

This study examined the temporal patterns of paleo-earthquake recurrences on the Korean Peninsula, situated near the Eurasian Plate boundary, by using electron spin resonance (ESR) dating to ascertain the ages at which fault gouge patches were reactivated. The findings reveal that the paleo-earthquakes in each of the fault zones (Keumwang, southern part of Wangsukcheon, Yangsan, and Ulsan) display quasiperiodic patterns. The observed patterns align with a time-dependent earthquake recurrence model. A periodicity of approximately 100 kyr could represent a regional baseline for fault activity. Over the past 650 kyr, the periodicity of paleo-earthquakes has coincided with the interglacial periods of marine isotope stages (MIS) 15, 13, 11, 9, and 7. On the Korean Peninsula, it is hypothesized that long-term differential stress changes, resulting from sea-level rises in the Pacific Ocean, have played a significant role in driving Quaternary fault activities during these interglacial stages. Consequently, this study suggests that the ongoing global warming trend could potentially increase the earthquake frequency on the Korean Peninsula.

Planning for the Lake Izabal Basin Research Endeavor (LIBRE) continental scientific drilling project in eastern Guatemala

Abstract. As Earth's atmospheric temperatures and human populations increase, more people are becoming vulnerable to natural and human-induced disasters. This is particularly true in Central America, where the growing human population is experiencing climate extremes (droughts and floods), and the region is susceptible to geological hazards, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and environmental deterioration in many forms (soil erosion, lake eutrophication, heavy metal contamination, etc.). Instrumental and historical data from the region are insufficient to understand and document past hazards, a necessary first step for mitigating future risks. Long, continuous, well-resolved geological records can, however, provide a window into past climate and environmental changes that can be used to better predict future conditions in the region. The Lake Izabal Basin (LIB), in eastern Guatemala, contains the longest known continental records of tectonics, climate, and environmental change in the northern Neotropics. The basin is a pull-apart depression that developed along the North American and Caribbean plate boundary ∼ 12 Myr ago and contains &gt; 4 km of sediment. The sedimentological archive in the LIB records the interplay among several Earth System processes. Consequently, exploration of sediments in the basin can provide key information concerning: (1) tectonic deformation and earthquake history along the plate boundary; (2) the timing and causes of volcanism from the Central American Volcanic Arc; and (3) hydroclimatic, ecologic, and geomicrobiological responses to different climate and environmental states. To evaluate the LIB as a potential site for scientific drilling, 65 scientists from 13 countries and 33 institutions met in Antigua, Guatemala, in August 2022 under the auspices of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) and the US National Science Foundation (NSF). Several working groups developed scientific questions and overarching hypotheses that could be addressed by drilling the LIB and identified optimal coring sites and instrumentation needed to achieve the project goals. The group also discussed logistical challenges and outreach opportunities. The project is not only an outstanding opportunity to improve our scientific understanding of seismotectonic, volcanic, paleoclimatic, paleoecologic, and paleobiologic processes that operate in the tropics of Central America, but it is also an opportunity to improve understanding of multiple geological hazards and communicate that knowledge to help increase the resilience of at-risk Central American communities.