Plains Of Nepal Research Articles

ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Model to Forecast Average Annual Precipitation in Bharatpur, Nepal

Precipitation includes different kinds of moisture that fall from the sky to the Earth's surface, like rain, snow, sleet, hail, or drizzle. In places with flat terrain like Bharatpur, rainfall is the predominant form of precipitation. Therefore, in the plains of Nepal, most of the precipitation comes in the form of rainfall. Rainfall is a natural occurrence known for its unpredictable nature, making it difficult to predict accurately. However, there are statistical methods that can help forecast future rainfall using past data. This research focuses on developing a reliable forecasting model: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing for the prediction of average annual precipitation in Bharatpur, Nepal. The primary objectives are to develop, compare, and identify the superior model between these two approaches. Utilizing average annual adjusted precipitation data (PRECTOTCORR) obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration website for the period 1990 to 2021, both the models were trained and validated using distinct training and test sets. The comparison of these models is based on the minimum Mean Squared Error criterion. The findings reveal that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model effectively predicts average annual precipitation in Bharatpur for future periods, outperforming the Exponential Smoothing Model. The results indicate that the time series model for the studied area differs from those of previously examined regions, highlighting the need for a model tailored to the specific characteristics of this region. The research provides valuable insights for stakeholders involved in water management and agricultural planning within the region. Accurate rainfall predictions, as demonstrated by the superior performance of the ARIMA model, can empower decision-making processes related to water resource management and agricultural planning. This, in turn, has the potential to enhance productivity and sustainability outcomes.

Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a virtual antenatal intervention for improved diet and iron intake in Kapilvastu district, Nepal: VALID

IntroductionDespite evidence that iron and folic acid (IFA) supplements can improve anaemia in pregnant women, uptake in Nepal is suboptimal. We hypothesised that providing virtual counselling twice in mid-pregnancy, would...

Terai trajectories: Layering design action in the plains of Nepal

Terai trajectories: Layering design action in the plains of Nepal

Comprehensive Anaemia Programme and Personalized Therapies (CAPPT): protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial testing the effect women\u2019s groups, home counselling and iron supplementation on haemoglobin in pregnancy in southern Nepal

BackgroundAnaemia in pregnancy remains prevalent in Nepal and causes severe adverse health outcomes.MethodsThis non-blinded cluster-randomised controlled trial in the plains of Nepal has two study arms: (1) Control: routine antenatal care (ANC); (2) Home visiting, iron supplementation, Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) groups, plus routine ANC. Participants, including women in 54 non-contiguous clusters (mean 2582; range 1299–4865 population) in Southern Kapilbastu district, are eligible if they consent to menstrual monitoring, are resident, married, aged 13–49 years and able to respond to questions. After 1–2 missed menses and a positive pregnancy test, consenting women < 20 weeks’ gestation, who plan to reside locally for most of the pregnancy, enrol into trial follow-up. Interventions comprise two home-counselling visits (at 12–21 and 22–26 weeks’ gestation) with iron folic acid (IFA) supplement dosage tailored to women’s haemoglobin concentration, plus monthly PLA women’s group meetings using a dialogical problem-solving approach to engage pregnant women and their families. Home visits and PLA meetings will be facilitated by auxiliary nurse midwives. The hypothesis is as follows: Haemoglobin of women at 30 ± 2 weeks’ gestation is ≥ 0.4 g/dL higher in the intervention arm than in the control. A sample of 842 women (421 per arm, average 15.6 per cluster) will provide 88% power, assuming SD 1.2, ICC 0.09 and CV of cluster size 0.27.Outcomes are captured at 30 ± 2 weeks gestation. Primary outcome is haemoglobin concentration (g/dL). Secondary outcomes are as follows: anaemia prevalence (%), mid-upper arm circumference (cm), mean probability of micronutrient adequacy (MPA) and number of ANC visits at a health facility. Indicators to assess pathways to impact include number of IFA tablets consumed during pregnancy, intake of energy (kcal/day) and dietary iron (mg/day), a score of bioavailability-enhancing behaviours and recall of one nutrition knowledge indicator. Costs and cost-effectiveness of the intervention will be estimated from a provider perspective. Using constrained randomisation, we allocated clusters to study arms, ensuring similarity with respect to cluster size, ethnicity, religion and distance to a health facility. Analysis is by intention-to-treat at the individual level, using mixed-effects regression.DiscussionFindings will inform Nepal government policy on approaches to increase adherence to IFA, improve diets and reduce anaemia in pregnancy.Trial registrationISRCTN 12272130.

Addressing anaemia in pregnancy in rural plains Nepal: A qualitative, formative study.

Maternal anaemia prevalence in low‐income countries is unacceptably high. Our research explored the individual‐, family‐ and community‐level factors affecting antenatal care uptake, iron folic acid (IFA) intake and consumption of micronutrient‐rich diets among pregnant women in the plains of Nepal. We discuss how these findings informed the development of a home visit and community mobilisation intervention to reduce anaemia in pregnancy. We used a qualitative methodology informed by the socio‐ecological framework, conducting semi‐structured interviews with recently pregnant women and key informants, and focus group discussions with mothers‐in‐law and fathers. We found that harmful gender norms restricted women's access to nutrient‐rich food, restricted their mobility and access to antenatal care. These norms also restricted fathers' role to that of the provider, as opposed to the caregiver. Pregnant women, mothers‐in‐law and fathers lacked awareness about iron‐rich foods and how to manage the side effects of IFA. Fathers lacked trust in government health facilities affecting access to care and trust in the efficacy of IFA. Our research informed interventions by (1) informing the development of intervention tools and training; (2) informing the intervention focus to engaging mothers‐in‐law and men to enable behaviour change; and (3) demonstrating the need to work in synergy across individual, family and community levels to address power and positionality, gender norms, trust in health services and harmful norms. Participatory groups and home visits will enable the development and implementation of feasible and acceptable strategies to address family and contextual issues generating knowledge and an enabling environment for behaviour change.

Mitigating Natural Heat Stress for Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L) Production through Management Techniques

An experiment was conducted to identify suitable production management techniques for tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) cultivation during late winter-pre monsoon season in plains of Nepal. For this, organic mulches (rice straw, dried grass, and rice husk) were compared with SN (shade net) and no-mulch (bare field) condition for tomato yield in 2018 and 2019. The pooled analysis of all observed morphological and yield traits were performed and they differed significantly. Rice husk significantly affected number of fruits per inflorescence though number of inflorescence per plant and flowers per inflorescence were similar among organic mulches. The highest fruit yield per plant (4.44 kg plant-1) was obtained with rice husk, the other mulches and SN were at par but the lowest yield (2.75 kg plant-1) was obtained with no-mulch. Similarly, rice husk mulch contributed to the highest number of fruits per inflorescence (5.22), highest fruit weight (46.58 g) and diameter (4.99 cm).Fruit yield positively and significantly associated with fruit per inflorescence(0.78***), fruit diameter (0.65***) and an average fruit weight (0.56***).Organic mulches significantly (p=0.05) contributed to higher yield (86.01 t ha-1) over SN (76.55 t ha-1).Higher values for total soluble solid, Vitamin C and fruit firmness were observed under rice husk mulching. The result of the present study found rice husk mulching as better option for tomato production as compared to SN and no-mulch condition.

Volunteering for otter conservation in Nepal: communicating with local communities

Amongst three species of otters, the Asian Small-clawed Otter has not been recorded since Hodgson (1839). Since 1991, the Eurasian Otter has neither been photographed nor sighted in the country. Recently, the Smooth-coated Otter has been reported only from Bardia National Park and its west. In this chaotic situation, a volunteer project was initiated for otter conservation in Nepal three years ago. 1000 copies of an otter conservation awareness poster were printed in 2017 and a second set of posters in 2019. Posters were distributed to local communities while communicating with the local people along the way and during stays. Thus far, we have conducted awareness activities at selected sites in nine districts and four protected areas. Over three years, we have talked with more than 2000 local people about otters and disseminated more than 1300 posters. At all sites, local communities responded that they had not seen otters for 20 to 30 years or more and for the last 10 years, even in protected areas. However, there are hopes that the last scarce individuals or populations of otters remain at very few sites. Overfishing, river poisoning and pollution, hydropower dams and station construction, and sand and pebble extraction from rivers, are the major causes for depletion of otters in these areas. In the past, trapping by Tibetans for otter pelts and by nomads from the plains of Nepal and India were major causes for population declines. In conclusion, we convey a conservation message that humans must learn to co-exist with otters if the species are to survive.&#x0D;

Evaluation of fungicides to control potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in the plains of Nepal

AbstractFungicide application is an effective management option to control late blight of potato (caused by Phytophthora infestans). Field experiments were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of recently introduced and previously used fungicides on late blight management and potato yields in the western plains of Nepal in 2015 and 2016 crop seasons. Fungicides and a non‐treated control (NTC) were replicated three times in a randomized block design planted with late blight susceptible cultivar Cardinal. Chlorothalonil, copper oxychloride, dimethomorph, fenamidone + mancozeb, mancozeb and metalaxyl were sprayed in 2015. In 2016, carbendazim was used instead of chlorothalonil. The area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) was consistently reduced in years by dimethomorph (90% and 65% in 2015 and 2016, respectively), fenamidone + mancozeb (68% and 62%) and mancozeb (40% and 47%) compared with the NTC. Similarly, tuber yield was increased with the application of dimethomorph (266% and 146% in 2015 and 2016, respectively), fenamidone + mancozeb (211% and 155%) and mancozeb (136% and 116%) compared with the NTC. Chlorothalonil reduced AUDPC by 43% and increased tuber yield by 170% in 2015. Other fungicides either had inconsistent results or did not reduce late blight severity and consequent effects on potato yield. The overall benefit–cost ratio was highest for dimethomorph in both years. These results show efficacy of dimethomorph, fenamidone + mancozeb and mancozeb in reducing late blight severity and increasing potato tuber yield in the plains of Nepal.

Growth Faltering Among Pre-School Aged Children in the Plains of Nepal (P10-009-19)

ObjectivesGrowth faltering in relation to the WHO reference is common in the first 2 years of life in South Asia. Stunting, defined as an attained height/length-for-age (H/LA) < -2 Z, is limited in its ability to capture this dynamic process. Our aims were to (1) reveal distributions of growth faltering by age in a cohort of preschool Nepali children, and (2) propose a definition of growth faltering that represents early or continued deviated growth that precedes a child reaching < -2 H/LAZ. MethodsWe conducted a mixed longitudinal study in 21 wards of 7 randomly selected sub-districts across the Tarai (plains) of Nepal. Mid-year anthropometry was measured annually from 2013–2016 in children < 71 months (mo) of age. Children with paired data over a ∼1-year interval contributed to any of 6 age groups: < 6 mo [n = 645], 6–11 mo [n = 998], 12–23 mo [n = 744], 24–35 mo [n = 691], 36–47 mo [n = 730] and 48–59 mo [n = 637], reflecting age at the outset of the interval. Sex-specific, annualized growth velocities and incidence rates of growth faltering were calculated for each age. Growth faltering was provisionally defined as an annualized decrement (-△) in H/LA of >0.5 Z, corresponding to a ∼ >1 cm/year slower rate of linear growth than an estimated median velocity on the WHO referent growth curve for children < 6 months at the outset. A -0.5 △H/LAZ cutoff was applied to all ages. ResultsAnnualized △H/LAZ [mean (SD)] was -1.3 (1.2), -0.8 (1.2), -0.3(0.8), 0.0 (0.7), 0.1(0.6), 0.1 (0.5) at each age specified above. Incidence of growth faltering was 79.8%, 66.3%, 40.4%, 11.7%, 4.9%, 2.1% at each respective age. Among infants < 6 mo whose initial LAZ was -1 < x < + 1 (excluding extrema), a △LAZ of < -0.5 or >0 (acceleration) was observed in 85.8% and 3.6%, respectively. ConclusionsGrowth faltering, expressed as an annualized decrement in HAZ >0.5 likely reflects biologically relevant deceleration before children reach < -2 H/LAZ. Two-thirds to 80% of infants in the Tarai of Nepal exhibit growth faltering the year after assessment. By 36 months and older, linear growth, parallels the WHO median attained HA on average, with < 5% appearing to falter, an age at which WHO growth velocity standard curves are lacking. Funding SourcesThe study was funded by USAID via a subaward from Tufts University under the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Nutrition. Additional assistance was received from Sight and Life and the Gates Foundation.

Integrated Management of South American Tomato Leaf Miner [Tuta Absoluta (Meyrick)]: A Review

Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) is one of the newly introduced insect pest of tomato in Nepal, which was first detected by Entomology Division, Nepal Agricultural Research Council from a commercial tomato grower of Balaju, Kathmandu on 16th May 2016. The pest occurs all-round the year within the temperature range of 20-27° C, and therefore, the environment of mid hills and plains of Nepal is suitable for sustaining the pest except during the winter season. T. absoluta pest mainly attacks Solanaceous crops, especially evident in tomato, however, it is also found in non-solanaceous crops. Larva of the pest is devastating causing damage in fruit, leaves and stem, and reducing tomato production by 80-100% in open field as well as in plastic house, if no control measures are carried out. Chemicals, like Spinosad, Chlorantraniliprole and Novaluron are recommended in Nepal for controlling this pest, but studies have revealed the inefficacy of chemical control measures due to wide host range, faster reproducing ability and development of pesticide resistance. Therefore, Integrated Pest Management (IPM) with mass trapping of the pest using pheromone trap, biological control by predator, parasitoid, entomopathogenic microbes, including cultural practices are imperative for the effective control of this pest.

Revisiting the patriarchal bargain: The intergenerational power dynamics of household money management in rural Nepal.

Although power struggles between daughters-in-law and mothers-in-law in the South Asian household remain an enduring theme of feminist scholarship, current policy discourse on 'women's economic empowerment' in the Global South tends to focus on married women's power over their husband; this neglects intergenerational power dynamics. The aim of this study was to describe and analyze the processes involved in young, married women's negotiations of control over cash inside the extended household in a contemporary rural Nepali setting. We conducted a grounded theory study of 42 households from the Plains of Nepal. Our study uncovered multiple ways in which junior wives and husbands in the extended household became secret allies in seeking financial autonomy from the rule of the mother-in-law to the wife. This included secretly saving up for a household separation from the in-laws. We argue these secret financial strategies constitute a means for junior couples to renegotiate the terms of Kandiyoti's (1988) 'patriarchal bargain' wherein junior wives traditionally had to accept subservience to their husband and mother-in-law in exchange for economic security and eventual authority over their own daughters-in-law. Researchers, activists and policy-makers concerned with women's economic empowerment in comparable contexts should consider the impact of intergenerational power relations on women's control over cash.

Change in cost and affordability of a typical and nutritionally adequate diet among socio-economic groups in rural Nepal after the 2008 food price crisis

Diet quality is an important determinant of nutrition and food security and access can be constrained by changes in food prices and affordability. Poverty, malnutrition, and food insecurity are high in Nepal and may have been aggravated by the 2008 food price crisis. To assess the potential impact of the food price crisis on the affordability of a nutritionally adequate diet in the rural plains of Nepal, data on consumption patterns and local food prices were used to construct typical food baskets, consumed by four different wealth groups in Dhanusha district in 2005 and 2008. A modelled diet designed to meet household requirements for energy and essential nutrients at minimum cost, was also constructed using the ‘Cost of Diet’ linear programming tool, developed by Save the Children. Between 2005 and 2008, the cost of the four typical food baskets increased by 19% – 26% and the cost of the nutritionally adequate modelled diet increased by 28%. Typical food baskets of all wealth groups were low in macro and micronutrients. Income data for the four wealth groups in 2005 and 2008 were used to assess diet affordability. The nutritionally adequate diet was not affordable for poorer households in both 2005 and 2008. Due to an increase in household income levels, the affordability scenario did not deteriorate further in 2008. Poverty constrained access to nutritionally adequate diets for rural households in Dhanusha, even before the 2008 food price crisis. Despite increased income in 2008, households remain financially unable to meet their nutritional requirements.

Cost effective crop establishment method for increased and sustainable rice production in eastern Gangetic plains of Nepal

Cost effective crop establishment method for increased and sustainable rice production in eastern Gangetic plains of Nepal

Is conservation agriculture a potential option for cereal-based sustainable farming system in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains of Nepal?

A decline in land and water productivity, increase in the cost of cultivation, and labor-intensive practices are affecting the cereal-based farming system in Nepal, particularly in the Indo-Gangeti...

Paths to Development? Rural Roads and Multidimensional Poverty in the Hills and Plains of Nepal

AbstractWe examine the impact of rural road construction on multidimensional poverty by using Nepal's Demographic and Health Survey and a difference‐in‐differences approach. We find reductions in deprivation, mainly driven by asset ownership and dwelling infrastructure, and small or non‐significant effects on health and education. Results are robust to different specifications and estimation methods, although we find heterogeneity across groups and dimensions. We argue that the heterogeneity might be driven by labour characteristics, infrastructure requirements, time considerations; and risk assessment and decision‐making practices. Our work highlights the importance of multidimensional measures to assess poverty and to evaluate infrastructure projects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Formative qualitative research to develop community-based interventions addressing low birth weight in the plains of Nepal.

To explore the factors affecting intra-household food allocation practices to inform the development of interventions to prevent low birth weight in rural plains of Nepal. Qualitative methodology using purposive sampling to explore the barriers and facilitating factors to improved maternal nutrition. Rural Dhanusha District, Nepal. We purposively sampled twenty-five young daughters-in-law from marginalised groups living in extended families and conducted semi-structured interviews with them. We also conducted one focus group discussion with men and one with female community health volunteers who were mothers-in-law. Gender and age hierarchies were important in household decision making. The mother-in-law was responsible for ensuring that a meal was provided to productive household members. The youngest daughter-in-law usually cooked last and ate less than other family members, and showed respect for other family members by cooking only when permitted and deferring to others' choice of food. There were limited opportunities for these women to snack between main meals. Daughters-in-law' movement outside the household was restricted and therefore family members perceived that their nutritional need was less. Poverty affected food choice and families considered cost before nutritional value. It is important to work with the whole household, particularly mothers-in-law, to improve maternal nutrition. We present five barriers to behaviour change: poverty; lack of knowledge about cheap nutritional food, the value of snacking, and cheap nutritional food that does not require cooking; sharing food; lack of self-confidence; and deference to household guardians. We discuss how we have targeted our interventions to develop knowledge, discuss strategies to overcome barriers, engage mothers-in-law, and build the confidence and social support networks of pregnant women.

Crop Diversification Improves pH in Acidic Soils

ABSTRACTSoil acidification has become a major challenge for sustainable crop production in the subsistence farming systems of developing countries. Diversified cropping may reduce soil acidity and improve agricultural sustainability. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of crop diversification on soil acidity in the subsistence farming systems of the mountains and plains of Nepal. We monitored soil pH of 180 sites that included low-diversity farms (LDFs), high-diversity farms (HDFs), and natural forest in mountains of Nuwakot and plains of Chitwan, Nepal. Soils were more acidic in Nuwakot than in Chitwan. The soil pH in HDFs with a value of 5.19 (Chitwan) and 4.03 (Nuwakot) was significantly higher than in LDFs and forests. Soil pH was lowest (4.67) in LDFs in Chitwan and in forest (3.32) in Nuwakot. Crop diversification can potentially improve the sustainability of subsistence farming systems through improvement in pH of the acidic soils.

Typhoid versus typhus fever in post-earthquake Nepal.

Typhoid versus typhus fever in post-earthquake Nepal.

Myopic preferences or subsistence income among rickshaw cyclists

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate why poor people make decisions that at first sight appear irrational. The author stays within the realms of classical consumption theory, and investigates preference-based explanations. The author studies the case of rickshaw rental versus purchase. One-year rent is sufficient to buy a rickshaw in the plains of Nepal, while a rickshaw will last many years, so purchase appears very profitable. Still most cyclists rent the rickshaw. Design/methodology/approach – Based on choices made by rickshaw cyclists between hypothetical financing schemes for rickshaws we investigate whether the explanation is a high time-preference rate or a high elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, which in turn can be explained by preferences that are formed by consumption near a subsistence level. Findings – The authors find that subsistence constraints are more important than high time-preference rates. In short, many rickshaw cyclists switch from profitable investment decisions to myopic choices if the weekly payments are too high. Research limitations/implications – In contrast to standard bidding-forms, the methodology does not allow for exact estimates of the implied time-preference rate or the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Practical implications – Microcredit has no role if people are subsistence constraint, as they will need to save every day also to repay loans. Social implications – The findings indicate that myopic choices by poor people are not due to myopic preferences, but rather that the disutility of reducing consumption today is too high. Originality/value – The authors believe bidding-forms are too complex for field experiments among people with no, or minimal, education. The simple hypothetical choices we have constructed appear to work.

A proteomic approach identifies plasma proteins correlated with vitamin B6 in Nepalese children (804.14)

Vitamin B6 is a coenzyme for &gt;140 distinct enzymes involved in amino acid metabolism. In the plains of Nepal, we have reported 43% of children age 6‐8 years of age to be B6 deficient (pyridoxal‐5’‐phosphate, PLP &lt;20nmol/L), revealing a public health problem. This study identified differentially abundant plasma proteins in relation to B6 status in 500 6‐8 yr old Nepalese children that represent possible B6 biomarkers with the potential to predict B6 status. Plasma PLP concentration was analyzed by HPLC, and relative abundance of plasma proteins by isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification (iTRAQ) tandem mass spectrometry. A total of 87 proteins were associated with PLP (for all, q&lt;0.1, p&lt;0.008), defining a plasma B6 proteome: 39 and 48 were positively and negatively correlated (r from 0.51 to 0.29 and ‐0.56 to ‐0.21) with PLP, respectively. Identified proteins are involved in numerous metabolic pathways, including cell proliferation, proteolysis, adhesion, acute phase reaction, coagulation and transport. Linear mixed effects analysis estimated ~60% of the variance (R²) in plasma PLP could be estimated by the relative abundance of 5 proteins (complement 9, cyclin D‐type binding‐protein 1, dynein, axonemal, heavy chain 10, leucine rich repeat containing 47, and NOP2/Sun domain family, member 6). A predictive plasma PLP proteome may exist for assessing population B6 status.Grant Funding Source: Supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Grants 614 and 5241