In western North America, fire regimes are shifting towards more frequent, larger, and more severe wildfire. There is concern that this will shift the vegetation type in many areas, especially on the lower, drier slopes. In northern California, mature serotinous conifers and resprouting shrub species easily regenerate in severe patches of any size. There is no consensus, however, regarding the effects of shrub competition on conifer recruitment; conifer response to shade varies with shade tolerance and abiotic factors. Many conifers and almost all chaparral shrubs are shade intolerant, and we expect shading to be the main driver of the inter-species competition between these taxa on dry low-elevation, slopes We chose to examine early post-fire regeneration of knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata), a shade intolerant serotinous conifer, because (a) as a serotinous species we could be assured of a high initial density of recruits, and (b) it is mainly found on lower-elevation slopes in a matrix of chaparral. We examined the competitive interactions of the pine and shrubs within the 2018 Carr and Delta fires at the third and fourth post-fire years, as well as at the 2008 Motion Fire at the 14th post-fire year, focusing on two measurements of shrub shading: inter-shrub porosity (% shrub cover) and intra-shrub porosity (species-specific ground-level light availability). Our response variables included recruitment success (recruits per ovulate cone) and growth (height). We only chose stands where knobcone pine was a minor pre-fire component to ensure a high density of vigorously resprouting shrubs. We found (1) there were significantly fewer pine recruits under shrubs, with the bulk of the shrub-induced mortality of knobcone pine occurring before the third growing season; (2) knobcone pine averaged about six established recruits per burned parent tree by the third year following fire; and (3), extrapolating from height reconstruction of post-fire knobcone pine regeneration from the 2008 Motion Fire, the remaining tree recruits are expected to persist and dominate the stand within a decade of the fire. We conclude that competition with shrubs on low elevation sites in northern California does have a negative effect on knobcone pine density but is insufficient to seriously impede a dramatic post-fire increase in conifer density when conifer regeneration arrives promptly following fire.
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