Prescribed burning as a silvicultural tool may be effective for achieving various management objectives, yet some practitioners have concerns about inadvertently increasing overstory tree mortality. Using extensive data from a long-term, ongoing study in northcentral Alabama, USA, that systematically applies a variety of thinning and prescribed burning disturbances on mixed pine-hardwood stands, we assess survival trends for different groups of trees. The primary research question is whether more frequent prescribed burns adversely affects overstory survival versus infrequent or no burns; secondary questions explore whether overstory survival trends differ based on thinning level, species group, or size class. Interest is in broad groups of trees, not individual tree survival or mortality; consequently, survival analysis methods are used, including nonparametric Kaplan-Meier (KM) techniques for examining single grouping factors, and parametric accelerated failure time models for analyzing simultaneous effects of multiple covariates. Leveraging relatively recent methodological advances, the statistical techniques are adjusted for interval censored data. KM survival curves showed that more frequent prescribed fires did not result in differing survival trends. Also, trees in unthinned stands had the lowest 14-year survival compared to thinned stands, oaks had the highest survival compared to pines and the others species group, and the smallest size class of overstory trees had the lowest survival. These results support managing transitional mixed pine-hardwoods using thinning and multiple prescribed fires to restore specific species composition and structure.
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