Previous articleNext article FreeConservation BiologyClimate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet. By Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman. Princeton (New Jersey): Princeton University Press. $27.95. xiii + 250 p.; ill.; index. ISBN: 978-0-691-15947-8. 2015.Richard S. J. TolRichard S. J. TolEconomics, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom and Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Search for more articles by this author Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom and Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreMartin Weitzman’s papers are eloquent, precise, and insightful. He excels at taking pieces of mathematics and reinterpreting them to shine a new light on old questions. In Climate Shock, the eminent Harvard scholar teams up with Gernot Wagner, an environmental activist. Weitzman’s later papers are turned into a long essay, replacing the succinct and precise mathematics of the originals with woolly words. The style is eclectic. Parts of the book follow the standard in popular science writing, but Chapter 2 does not work without the hyperlinks and Chapter 7 starts with a poorly written script for a Bond movie. Fact checking was not a priority. The chronology of the discovery of the greenhouse effect is mixed up. Nixon’s amendments to the Clean Air Act are two years off. The first carbon tax was in Norway not Sweden. The volume argues for cap-and-trade and against a carbon tax, as if Weitzman’s seminal 1974 paper on that question was never written.The book barely scratches the surface on the subject of its subtitle, the economic consequences of climate change. Uncertainty dominates the discussion in the first half of the volume. We should proceed with caution if the effects of our decisions are uncertain. Climate Shock emphasizes the uncertainties about climate change and its impacts, but hardly discusses the uncertainties about the impacts of climate policy. It ignores that negative climate surprises are more likely than positive ones, and that climate change is irreversible. Both are good reasons to be extra cautious and reduce greenhouse gas emissions faster. Instead, the focus is on Weitzman’s Dismal Theorem, which states that the uncertainties about climate change are so large that it is not possible to do a cost-benefit analysis of greenhouse gas emission reduction policy.The Dismal Theorem was first published in 2009. We have since learned that this striking result comes apart if Weitzman’s analysis is generalized to include mitigation policy or the feedbacks of climate change on economic growth, or if his constant relative risk aversion is replaced by more realistic hyperbolic absolute risk aversion. Project evaluation methods that are robust to large uncertainties do not recommend policies that are very different from cost-benefit analysis. Unfortunately, Climate Shock omits these critiques.The second half of the book is about geoengineering. It is short on the technical aspects, instead focusing on one key characteristic: global climate can be geoengineered by a single country or even a mid-sized organization. The international policy response should therefore focus on stopping countries that deploy geoengineering against the wishes of the rest of world. Climate Shock correctly diagnoses the issue, but fails to suggest a solution.Altogether, the volume disappoints. If you want to understand Weitzman’s work, his papers are superior. If you want a popular discussion of the economics of climate change, William Nordhaus’ books are unsurpassed. Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The Quarterly Review of Biology Volume 92, Number 1March 2017 Published in association with Stony Brook University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/690865 For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.
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