Physical Characteristics Of Land Research Articles

Analyzing the Factors of Vacant Home Occurrence for Urban Sustainability: A Case Study of Medium-Sized Cities Focusing on Asan City, Chungcheongnam-do

This study aims to enhance urban sustainability by analyzing the spatial distribution and underlying causes of vacant homes in Asan, Chungcheongnam-do. Various statistical methods were employed to analyze date concerning the number of vacant stores, population changes, land use complexity, and the physical characteristics of land and buildings; these factors were found to influence the prevalence of vacant homes across Asan. Additionally, it was found that distinct factors differentially affect specific regions, such as old downtown areas versus rural villages. This indicates that reducing vacant homes in these areas requires distinct policies tailored to the unique circumstances of each region. For instance, in old town areas, small lot ratios and land use complexity are significant, while in rural villages, the average number of floors and land use complexity play a major role. This study highlights the diverse factors influencing the prevalence of vacant homes and suggests that to effectively address this issue, policies should be developed that are tailored to the unique characteristics of each area, categorized at both the city and local levels.

Soil suitability assessment for sustainable intensification of maize production in the humid Savannah of Ghana

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), food security is a significant challenge due to unreliable rainfall and depleting soil fertility. Most of the soil resource in the sub-region which constitutes majority of the fields of smallholder farmers is degraded. Hence, there is a need to identify suitable soils for sustainable intensification. The objectives of this study were to: (i) evaluate the suitability and fertility constraints of soils and (ii) discuss the influence of soil properties on maize production in the Nkoranza (north and south) district. A total of sixty (60) soil samples were sampled from smallholder farms under careful consideration of topography and the spatial pattern of land use systems. The evaluation of soil suitability was carried out using climate (temperature and rainfall) and physico-chemical characteristics of soils for maize (Zea mays) production. The results indicated that soil texture varied from sandy loam to sandy clay loam. Soil organic carbon concentration (SOC) ranged between 0.55 and 2.02%. Total nitrogen (TN) and SOC were low in all soil types except in the Bediesi series (Haplic Luvisol). Base cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, and K+) were low and varied between soil types. Although climatic factors and physical properties were highly suitable (S1), more than half of the pedons were moderately suitable (S2). The soils functioned at a moderate capacity for maize production. The major limitations identified were sub-optimal and related to soil fertility (CEC). Pearson correlation revealed a relationship between parametric actual index (PAI) and parametric potential index (PPI; r = 0.940, p < 0.003) and between soil resilience index (SRI; r = 0.768, p < 0.037) and the relationship between these variables is a perfect correlation. Soil management is required to increase maize yield in the study area. Soil erosion prevention measures such as cover crops, mulching, organic manure (poultry), and mineral fertilizer application are recommended to improve soil fertility in the Nkoranza (north and south) district. This study can inform policies and interventions geared toward sustainable agricultural intensification. Land and soil are heterogeneous and any decision on intensification in this study accounted for the prevailing local conditions of the study area. Therefore, indexing soil suitability using climate (rainfall and temperature), physical land characteristics (topography, drainage) and chemical properties (pH, SOM, SOC, TN, Av. P, Av. K, etc.) of soil resources for sustainable intensification of maize is proposed for smallholder farming communities of Nkoranza (north and south) districts in the Forest-Savannah Transition Zone of Ghana.

Assessment of Urban Mapping Index Accuracy in Relation to Physical Land Characteristics in Humid Tropical Areas

Settlements and built-up areas can lead to the degradation of ecological systems. Good quality and efficient regional planning is therefore needed for urban areas. Spatial data and satellite imagery can be used for mapping and monitoring urban growth. Unfortunately, mapping urban areas can sometimes be difficult due to local variations, and different algorithms can provide varying results. Urban indices often rely on remote sensing reflectance, the accuracy of which can be influenced by land characteristics. No studies have examined the impact of land characteristics on the accuracy of remote sensing urban indices in the humid tropics. The purpose of this study was to compare urban and built area indices, namely EBBI, NDBI, UI, and IBI, in two climatically and topographically different cities. This study also examined the stability and relationship between these indices with environmental factors such as slope, elevation, and temperature. The results showed that EBBI was the index with the highest accuracy in both study areas: 85% for Batu City and 89.17% for Pasuruan City. Also, EBBI was the most stable index for the temporal studies. Environmental factors, especially slope and elevation, had a strong relationship with the index value applied. Therefore, these findings need to be considered in applying the index in areas that have topographical variations.
 Keywords: built-up land, landsat, EBBI, NDBI, UI, IBI, topography

Geo-economic Feasibility of Apple Orchards Across Physiographic Divisions in Kashmir Valley, India

Financial investments in apple cultivation in Kashmir valley are increasingly recognized as key drivers of economic growth and employment creation. This paper presents a comprehensive economic analysis across physiographic divisions using precise economic indices that include cost-benefit analysis, project evaluation method and other socio-economic determinants. It relies on a primary survey of 866 farm-households selected across four physiographic divisions of the Kashmir valley viz- valley floor, karewas, foothills and side valleys. Results reveal that the karewas fetch the highest returns from an investment owing to its ideal geographical conditions. On contrary, the non-karewas belt was found to be trailing in one or more economic indices although the financial feasibility of investment in apple cultivation was still found satisfactory. The study affirms that agricultural land-use decisions at the micro-scale should be determined by the site-specific attributes and that economic indices are largely dictated by physical characteristics of land itself. While demonstrating the utility of land-use decisions in light of geographical factors, our results can assist both farmers and policy-makers to design a more adapted land use strategy for fostering financial investments in apple cultivation in the valley.

Identification, Characterization and Mapping of Potential Irrigable Areas in Ziway Micro Watershed

Irrigation land suitability assessment and mapping for irrigation purpose is important to utilize the land resources efficiently. This study was initiated to assess, evaluate and develop map of the land resources which is potentially suitable for surface irrigation in ziway micro watershed by using Geographic Information System (GIS). The evaluation of land in terms of the suitability classes was based FAO guideline for land evaluation. Multi-criteria decision evaluation method and suitability factors were used such as, soil data, slope, land use/cover for evaluate the physical land characteristics of the study area of surface irrigation and suitability map was developed. After evaluating the physical land capability for surface irrigation, irrigation suitability map was developed. The weighted overlay analysis gave 70.1 and 13.3% of the study area is lies in the range of very high suitable to marginally suitable for irrigation. Thus, the overall suitability shows that potentially irrigable land suitable for surface irrigation is about 83.4% of the area. Therefore, based on results, farmers, decision makers, investors, planners and policymakers at the local, regional and national levels and the government should invest in those suitable areas for irrigation.

Mechanization and efficiency in rice production in China

Agricultural mechanization and custom machine services have developed rapidly in China, which can influence rice production efficiency in the future. We calculate technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, and scale efficiency using data collected in 2015 from a face-to-face interview survey of 450 households that cultivated 3096 plots located in the five major rice-producing provinces of China. We use a one-step stochastic frontier model to calculate technical efficiency and regress the efficiency scores on socio-demographic and physical land characteristics to find the influencing variables. Variables influencing technical efficiency are compared at three different phases of rice cultivation. We also calculate technical efficiency by using the Heckman Selection Model, which addresses technological heterogeneity and self-selection bias. Results indicate that: (1) the average value of technical efficiency using a one-step stochastic frontier model was found to be 0.74. When self-selection bias is accounted for using the Heckman Selection Model, the average value of the technical efficiency increases to 0.80; (2) mechanization at the chemical application phase has a positive effect on technical efficiency, but mechanization does not affect efficiency at the plowing and harvesting phases; (3) machines are overused relative to both land and labor, and high machine input use on the small size of landholding has resulted in allocative inefficiency; (4) rice farmers are overwhelmingly operating at a sub-optimal scale. Future policies should focus on encouraging farmland transfer in rural areas to achieve scale efficiency and allocative efficiency while promoting mechanization at the chemical application phase of rice cultivation to improve technical efficiency.

Proyeksi kebutuhan lahan padi sawah dan evaluasi kesesuaian lahan padi sawah dalam mencukupi kebutuhan pangan di provinsi Papua Barat

This study aimed to predict the need for lowland rice land, and evaluate the suitability of the land to meet food needs in the West Papua province. This study used a descriptive method with food demand projection techniques to predict the need for lowland rice land; and the technique of matching data on physical characteristics of land with land suitability criteria for lowland rice plants based on the Land Evaluation Technical Manual to evaluate the suitability of lowland rice fields. The projection result showed that the demand for food and land tends to increase every year, therefore, based on the comparison between food needs and the production, the West Papua province tends to experience a food deficit. An alternative to increase rice production is the extensification of paddy fields. The results of the evaluation of actual land suitability for lowland rice in the West Papua province ranged from the suitability class moderately suitable (S2) to marginally suitable (S3), with the limiting factor in the S2 land suitability class were nutrient retention (KB, CEC), available nutrients ( P2O5, N-total) and soil texture; while the limiting factors in the S3 land suitability class were slope, temperature and soil texture. If improvement efforts are made by adding organic matter and fertilization, then the distribution of potential land availability (available and suitable) is spread in very suitable land suitability classes (S1) and quite suitable (S2), with the largest land area being in Teluk Bintuni district.

Assessing potential land suitable for surface irrigation using groundwater data and multi-criteria evaluation in Xinjiang inland river basin

In the present study, suitability of land for irrigation based on groundwater in Xinjiang inland river basin with GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques was evaluated with the aim to promote the development of regional agriculture. The critical elements that relatively large impact on the evaluation of irrigation suitability contain physical land characteristics (land use, soil and slope), climate (rainfall and evapotranspiration) as well as groundwater data (natural recharge modulus and aquifer productivity). These factors which adopted 1 km resolution were weighted by a pairwise comparison matrix and then reclassified and overlaid to identify the appropriate area suitable for groundwater irrigation. The current work also attempts to explore weight sensitivity initiated by both direct and indirect weight changes through applying the one-at-a-time (OAT) technique in a GIS platform. The weights in association with all criteria employed for suitability modeling were changed one-at-a-time (OAT) so as to study their relative influences on the ultimate evaluation results. The groundwater irrigation potential for farming was assessed using preliminary result of land suitable, suggesting that 519,292 km2 of land which is the sum of levels S1 and S2 could be used for irrigation directly and the rest needs to be diverted from other areas. A large portion of the irrigable land is located in the Ili river valley, south of the Altai Mountain, both sides of the Tianshan Mountains and north of Kunlun Mountains, which has access to shallow groundwater making it easier to extract. Through conducting field investigation, the groundwater alone might not be abundant to support all suitable land. Nevertheless, groundwater can be used for the supplementation of surface water resources for irrigation in the area.

Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Agricultural Drought in Upper Progo Watershed Based on Remote Sensing and Land Physical Characteristics

Agricultural drought is alarmed by meteorological drought characterized by lower year-to-year rainfall. Under long period and continuous water deficits, plants may demonstrate stress symptoms and wilt or die. Furthermore, agricultural drought leads to crop failures and threaten the food security of an area. Progo Hulu sub-watershed is a major agricultural area in Temanggung Regency. Spatial-temporal pattern-based information about agricultural drought can be a basis for decision making in drought mitigation. This study aims to analyze spatial and temporal distribution patterns of drought, analyze the physical characteristics of land and their influence on drought pattern, and establish a prediction model of drought distribution patterns based on four physical characteristics of the land. Landsat 8 imagery is used to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought in Upper Progo watershed using an improved Temperature vegetation Dryness Index (iTVDI). Slope, land use, landform, and soil texture are the physical characteristics of land as the variables to determine the most influential factor of drought pattern. They are analyzed using multiple regression analysis techniques. Pixel samples are obtained through purposive sampling method based on land units. The results reveal that the spatial-temporal distribution of agricultural drought occurs rapidly on the slopes and foothills of Sumbing and Sindoro. These areas have the highest average value of the iTVDI index. Agricultural drought extends gradually in line with the number of days without rainfall. Landform is a physical characteristic that most influences the distribution of agricultural drought. The established model by utilizing four variables of physical characteristics generates an average value which almost similar to the iTVDI value produced by remote sensing data. The model can be useful to estimate drought distribution based on the number of days without rainfall.

A Review of Parametric and Physiographic Approaches Land Classification for Land Evaluation and Land Use Planning

Knowledge of physical characteristics of land is fundamental for rational land evaluation and land use planning, both in developed and undeveloped regions. A review of two land classifications, parametric and physiographic approaches, is carried out. The parametric approach classifies on the basis of selected land attributes determined by land use or uses in question. Its employment may range from general purpose surveys which are considering many attributes, to classification on narrower basis for special purposes. The physiographic approach, on the other hand, classifies land rather than its specific attributes. Each land unit identified in this way is therefore considered to be relatively homogeneous in overall characters. Both approaches have had varying merits depending on the goal and circumstances of the land evaluation. On a detailed study required by most practical purposes, both approaches theoretically meet the requirements of land classification. Of both approaches, it was concluded that physiographic approach had the advantage of being rapidly implemented whereas, the parametric approach, whilst slower in use and applicable only in localized studies, yielded more reliable results. In reality, however, distinction between both approaches is not so clear-cut because they can be combined with advantage. Their advantages and disadvantages relative merits also be assessed in related to three problems of land classification: (1) complexity of land, (2). extent of land-units, and (3) associations of land-units. The two approaches are really not alternatives and can, in fact, be combined with profit, since the relative advantage of each varies with circumstances. Physiographic approach offers a possibility on more rapid survey at relatively low cost, as needed in most undeveloped regions. Its reliability is consistent for reconnaissance investigation and, with moderately close sampling, for semi-detailed surveys. It has an additional advantage of enabling a survey with diverse specialists. For a detailed survey, however, greater precision and reliability of parametric approach is preferable. In practice, therefore, both methods are best combined to reinforce each other.

Conservation Management of Agriculture Land using Geospatial Approach (A Case Study in the Bone Watershed, Gorontalo Province, Indonesia)

Bone Watershed is one of the major watersheds in Gorontalo Province. Bone watershed has a very important role for the people of Gorontalo Province. The role of Bone Watershed is mainly related to the providing clean water, producing oxygen, controlling flood, providing habitat for endemic flora fauna and other environmental functions. The role of Bone Watershed for the community’s economic sector is also very important, the Bone watershed provides livelihood for surrounding communities includes fertile land resources for agriculture and plantations, forest products, and livestock feed. This research is important considering the Bone watershed has limited availability of land for agriculture and the high risk of natural disasters such as floods and landslides. Geospatial data includes topography map, landform map, soil map, integrated with field survey results and soil properties were analized to determine conservation management of agriculture land in the Bone Watershed, Gorontalo Province, Indonesia. The result of this study shows that based on soil properties and physical land characteristics, land use for agriculture should consider appropriate conservation techniques, land capability and respect to local wisdom.

KARAKTERISTIK LAHAN DAN KONSTRUKSI TABEL KEBUTUHANNYA BAGI PENGEMBANGAN ATUNG (Parinarium glaberimum Hassk) DI NEGERI HARUKU

This research was conducted on sample area where Atung plant grow, focused on the Land “Petuanan” of ​​Haruku village in Haruku small Island-Central Maluku Regency, from December 2016 till May 2017. The aims of this research were: 1) to assess the physical characteristics of land affecting the growth and production of Atung plant at the study area; 2) to elaborate the physical essential information and necessary data on the basis of literature and field review in constructing the land suitability table for the Atung Plant (as a preliminary approach); 3) to implement or test the appropriate land suitability table for the land suitability evaluation of Atung based on available biophysical land characteristic data. The method used in this study was a library study and field survey using the distance of flexible transect observation in accordance with the conditions where Atung grows. The results of this study consisted of the land characteristics data for Atung plant; i.e. climate, topography, and soil. The study of land characteristics obtained from the literature, field review and knowledge of the local community and construction of the land suitability table for Atung, an appropriate test in the Waai village showed that the land suitability category as the S3 class with the limiting factor was pH value that was easily improved and upgraded to the suitability class of S2/S1.

TEMPORAL VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN PEAT SWAMP AREA USING MODIS TIME-SERIES IMAGERY: A MONITORING APPROACH OF HIGH-SENSITIVE ECOSYSTEM IN REGIONAL SCALE

Peat swamp area is an essential ecosystem due to high vulnerability of functions and services. As the change of forest cover in peat swamp area has increased considerably, many studies on peat swamp have focused on forest conversion or forest degradation. Meanwhile, in the context of changes in the forestlands are the sum of several processes such as deforestation, reforestation/afforestation, regeneration of previously deforested areas, and the changing spatial location of the forest boundary. Remote sensing technology seems to be a powerful tool to provide information required following that concerns. A comparison imagery taken at the different dates over the same locations for assessing those changes tends to be limited by the vegetation phenology and land-management practices. Consequently, the simultaneous analysis seems to be a way to deal with the issues above, as a means for better understanding of the dynamics changes in peat swamp area. In this study, we examined the feasibility of using MODIS images during the last 14 years for detecting and monitoring the changes in peat swamp area. We identified several significant patterns that have been assigned as the specific peat swamp ecosystem. The results indicate that a different type of ecosystem and its response to the environmental changes can be portrayed well by the significant patterns. In understanding the complex situations of each pattern, several vegetation dynamics patterns were characterized by physical land characteristics, such as peat depth, land use, concessions and others. Characterizing the pathways of dynamics change in peat swamp area will allow further identification for the range of proximate and underlying factors of the forest cover change that can help to develop useful policy interventions in peatland management.

Analysis Physical Characteristics of Land for Estimated Runoff Coefficient as Flood Control Effort in Comal Watershed, Central Java

Watershed conditions in Indonesia have been degraded over time, which is marked by increasing area of critical land. The vast area of critical land was evidenced to be a serious threat for watershed carrying capacity which eventually affected the hydrology imbalance in the watershed area. One among watershed with degraded lands which seriously requires priority handling is Comal watershed. The purpose of this study is to identify the physical characteristics of Comal watershed which have significant influence in determining the runoff and calculating the runoff coefficient by taking into account the parameters of watershed’s physical characteristics. The method used in this analysis is Cook method, which is done through the estimation of runoff coefficient by evaluating the parameters of slope, infiltration, vegetation cover, and drainage density. The unit of analysis in this study is land mapping unit. Results of the four parameters are classified and the classification is done so that the scores of the runoff coefficient are figured out, while the peak discharge determination is performed by using the Rational method. The analysis showed that runoff coefficient of Comal watershed is 61.63%, which can be categorized as high. The runoff coefficients and peak discharge calculations of each sub watershed, respectively, Comal Hilir of 52.65% with peak discharge 505.68 m3/sec, Genteng of 65.04% with peak discharge 542.44 m3/sec, Lomeneng of 64.00% with peak discharge 194.23 m3/sec, Srengseng of 64.10% with peak discharge 270.46 m3/sec, and Wakung Hulu of 62.34% with peak discharge 686.64 m3/ sec. The most influential runoff coefficient factors are, respectively, infiltration rate, slope, vegetation cover, and drainage density. Flood control priority in Comal watershed should be preoccupied to increase the infiltration rate through a combination of three conservation techniques of mechanical, vegetative, and biology.

ZONASI TINGKAT KERENTANAN BANJIR DI KOTA BANJARBARU KALIMANTAN SELATAN

Zoning Level of Flood Susceptibility in Banjarbaru City, South Kalimantan. This research aims to formulate the control guide line of flood susceptibility in Banjarbaru, South Kalimantan Province. The goal is ac hieved through thest ages of study as follows: 1. Analyzing the characteristics of Banjarbaru City consisting of a) the use of land; b) rain fall; c) physical characteristics of land (infiltration); and d) on steepness, 2. Conducting the zoning level of flood susceptibility in Banjarbaru City, and 3.Producing a chart of flood susceptibility for Banjarbaru City. This research applies descriptive method that consists of data gathering, data processing and data analysis. Determining the high suspectibility of flood is done by weighting indicators of flood through the closing of land, the rain intensity, the physical characteristics of land (infiltration), and the tilt of slope. uper weighting, classification of flood susceptibility is carried out. Thecategory of level is done by multiplying variable values with the variable weight. Of fload susceptibilityis divided into four categories: very fragile, ,fragile, somewhat fragile, and not fragile. This research results flood susceptibility zoning level that aims to identify the areas that are fragile to flood, so this region can be analysed to prevent and handle flood. Based on the result of data collection ,data processing and data analysis, it can be concluded that: 1) based on the results of the analysis toward the flood susceptibility variable, it can be concluded that the cause of flood susceptibility in Banjarbaru City is the change in the landuse because it has great weight beside the topography of the area. Banjarbaru City also has the tilt tendency to beflat (0-8%), so the water from a higher place then will gather in this area. 2) Based on flood susceptibility zoning level in Banjarbaru City ,it is discovered that an area of 16,810 hectares or 51% of Banjarbaru City's width is located in the level of somewhat fragile, then an area of 13,118 hectares or 40% is not fragile and 3,156 hectares or 9% is fragile to flood. 3) The chart of fload susceptibility in Banjarbaru City has shown that almost all parts of areas in Banjarbaru City are zones with high flood susceptibility level with the criteria of not fragile ,somewhat fragile and fragile.

The physical, economic and policy drivers of land conversion to forestry in Ireland

Land use change is fundamentally a product of the interaction of physical land characteristics, economic considerations and agricultural and environmental policies. Researchers are increasingly combining physical and socio-economic spatial data to investigate the drivers of land-use change in relation to policy and economic developments. Focusing on Ireland, this study develops a panel data set of annual afforestation over 2811 small-area boundaries between 1993 and 2007 from vector and raster data sources. Soil type and other physical characteristics are combined with the net returns of converting agricultural land to forestry, based on the micro-simulation of individual farm incomes, to investigate land conversion. A spatial econometric approach is adopted to model the data and a range of physical, economic and policy factors are identified as having a significant effect on afforestation rates. In addition to the financial returns, the availability and quality of land and the implementation of environmental protection policies are identified as important factors in land conversion. The implications of these factors for the goal of forest expansion are discussed in relation to conflicting current and future land use policies.

Hydrological Services of Forests and Their Compensation Initiatives

Rapid decreas of natural forest, and more frequent disaster related to the roles of forest on precipitation, flood, drought, erosion, and sedimentation as well as landslides, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration have driven initiatives to find out economic instruments for raising incentives for better land rehabilitation and forest management. Payment or compensation for hydrological services of forest is one of economic instruments that was initiated to address water availability, flood and drought, erosion, and sedimentation issues. Hydrological services of forest to some extent are still debatable, and the magnitude of the services or influences of forest varies depending on the quality of forest cover and soil, climate, and physical characteristics of land. In most cases, payment or compensation schemes of forest services to the land owner or manager that have been implemented already, do not consider the actual forest hydrological services yet. Nevertheless, those payment schemes have been driving the activities of better land and forest uses, although they are still limited to small scales relative to the whole required area to produce forest hydrological services. This article reviews the hydrological services of forests and their compensation scheme developed in Indonesia.

Physical Landscape Correlates of the Expansion of Mechanized Agriculture in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Abstract Mechanized agriculture is rapidly expanding in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. In the past five years, land area planted with soybeans, the state’s principal crop, has increased at an average rate of 19.4% yr−1. Drivers of this large-scale land-use conversion are principally economic and sociopolitical, but physical properties of the landscape make some areas more attractive than others for expansion of mechanized agriculture. The goal of this study is to evaluate several physical characteristics of land in Mato Grosso and to quantify their respective weights in determining the likelihood of land-use conversion to crop production. A 2003 land-cover classification at 250-m resolution was compared to maps of five physical landscape characteristics (surface slope, soil type, total November precipitation, distance from paved roads, and previous land-cover type based on a 2001 classification). A land-cover transition matrix was generated to inform analysis of the role of previous land-cover type, and statewide distributions of the other four landscape characteristics were examined across agricultural and nonagricultural land. Finally, logistic regressions were performed to quantify the respective correlations of these various characteristics with the probability of conversion to mechanized agriculture. Areas of new cropland in 2003 (converted since the 2001 classification) were nearly 3 times as likely to have been converted from pasture/cerrado as from all other land-cover types combined, but in terms of class original extent, bare soil was by far the most likely class to be converted to cropland, with 56% of its 2001 land area being converted by 2003. The physical landscape parameter found most highly correlated with conversion to mechanized agriculture between 2001 and 2003 was that of the previous land-cover type, followed by topographic slope and distance from paved roads. Soil type and total November precipitation were poorly correlated with mechanized agriculture. Findings from this study suggest that holistic, spatially explicit models of likelihood of conversion to mechanized agriculture should consider land cover, slope, and proximity to main roads in addition to political and economic parameters to generate realistic scenarios for sustainable land-use planning.

Identification of potential conflict areas between land transformation and biodiversity conservation in north-eastern South Africa

Transformation of natural vegetation to other land-uses, such as crop cultivation and urban development, presents the most important threat to biodiversity. Plant and animal species distribution data were employed to identify areas of high biodiversity value in the major summer crop production region in north-eastern South Africa. These areas of biodiversity conservation importance were then evaluated in terms of their (1) potential overlap with areas currently transformed by land-uses in the region and (2) potential co-occurrence with areas of natural vegetation cover likely to become cultivated. Integrating species distribution, land-cover and land capability data allowed for potential conflict areas, i.e. areas with a high biodiversity value facing large current or future land transformation threats to be identified. Areas of potential conflict appear to be central Gauteng, the KwaZulu-Natal coastline, Maputuland and the escarpment of Mpumalanga. Most of the arable areas, that are not currently under some form of land-use, are marginal lands where the physical land characteristics demand high input costs, give rise to low yields and are thus not suitable for full scale commercial cultivation. As the results indicate some of these areas have a high biodiversity value, land reform programs should therefore refrain from promoting cultivation on marginal lands in these conflict areas, as they provide the last safe havens for many species. The proportion of bird, butterfly, mammal and plant species’ ranges remaining in an untransformed state was quantified. Animal species with less than 60% of their natural range remaining, referred to as impacted species, comprised 63 bird, 207 butterfly and 15 mammal species. The grid cells containing these impacted species were identified as additional potential conflict areas. This study presents evidence that there is significant overlap between areas of biodiversity conservation interest and transformed or arable land in this region of South Africa and that there is an urgent need for the formulation of appropriate policies to promote biodiversity conservation on private farmland.

Integrating Urbanization into Landscape-level Ecological Assessments

Economists and ecologists are often asked to collaborate on landscape-level analyses designed to jointly assess economic and ecological conditions resulting from environmental policy scenarios. This trend toward multidisciplinary projects, coupled with the growing use of geographic information systems, has led to the development of spatially explicit models that can be used to examine and project land-use change. Although spatial land-use models are still evolving, most published efforts have modeled the conversion of nonurban land to urban uses as a function of explanatory variables based on population density and the spatial proximity of land to roads, markets, and population centers. In this paper, we use a gravity model to describe the urbanization potential of forest and agricultural land as a combination of population and proximity. We develop an empirical model that describes the probability that forests and agricultural land in western Oregon and western Washington were transformed to residential, commercial, or industrial uses over a 30-year period as a function of urbanization potential, other socioeconomic factors, and geographic and physical land characteristics. Land-use data were provided by the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program. We use this empirical model to generate geographic information system maps depicting the probability of future land-use change that can be integrated with landscape-level ecological models developed for western Oregon's Coast Range.