This analysis aimed to (1) identify longitudinal joint trajectories of participation in organized and unorganized physical activity contexts, and level of daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and (2) assess whether basic psychological need satisfaction during adolescence differentiates between membership in different physical activity trajectories. Participants (n = 888; 56% girls) reported their involvement in 36 different physical activities, level of MVPA, and their perceived satisfaction of competence, autonomy, and relatedness satisfaction in physical activity up to three times per year, over 8 years (from ages 10 to 17 years). Group-based multi-trajectory models were used to identify longitudinal joint trajectories of physical activity participation. We estimated a multinomial logistic regression model for membership in a physical activity trajectory by including individual-level intercepts and slopes for each psychological need obtained using mixed models over the 24 cycles modelized as natural cubic splines. Five longitudinal trajectory groups emerged: Non-participants, Dropouts, Active in unorganized physical activities, Active in organized physical activities, and Active through a variety of activities. Relative to Non-participants, we identify a dose-response relationship in baseline competence and membership in the higher active trajectory groups. In addition, a positive change in competence in early adolescence predicted membership in all three Active trajectory groups.
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