Phenological Responses Research Articles

Toward understanding grapevine responses to climate change: a multistress and holistic approach.

Recent research has extensively covered the effects of climate change factors, such as elevated CO2, rising temperatures and water deficit, on grapevine (Vitis spp.) biology. However, the assessment of the impacts of multiple climate change-related stresses on this crop remains complex due to the large number of interactive effects among environmental factors and the regulatory mechanisms that underlie these effects. Consequently, there is a substantial discrepancy between the number of studies conducted with a single or two factors simultaneously, and those with a more holistic approach. This review focuses on how climate change factors will coexist across the viticultural areas of the globe and summarises the main interactive mechanisms affecting crop performance. We highlight how the rise in temperatures will be enhanced when dealing with specific periods, such as the ripening months. Changes in crop phenology in response to temperature have been a major focus of most studies. However, how these physiological shifts may result in deleterious effects on yield and quality deserves further research. Rising temperatures will most certainly continue to represent the most imminent threat to viticulture due to its effects on grape phenology, composition and crop water requirements. Nevertheless, elevated CO2 may offer some relief through increased water use efficiency, as recent studies have shown. Within the repertoire of regulatory mechanisms that plants possess, hormones play a major role explaining the effects of combined stresses due to their crosstalk. In fact, growth regulators fine tune stress responses depending on the multiple stresses present. The paper focuses on the multistress responses mediated by ABA and jasmonate, and on the intricate interconnections of signalling among the different plant hormones.

Living on leftovers: biomass management in annual grasslands may shift functional group dominance

Livestock grazing in North American rangelands has the capacity both to promote and control the spread of undesirable plant species. Within California annual grasslands, desirable forage peaks in spring and supports considerable livestock grazing. However, spring grazing appears to promote the invasion and spread of two late-season and unpalatable non-native annual grasses, Aegilops triuncialis and Elymus caput-medusae. We tested the hypothesis that grazing reduces the leaf area and water use of early-spring annuals, thus increasing residual soil water availability for the late-season species. We used grazing-exclosure experiments to examine the interactive effects of simulated grazing (i.e., clipping) and competition on soil moisture availability, and on physiological, phenological, and demographic responses. When compared to unclipped controls, spring clipping significantly increased late-season volumetric soil moisture by 13–24% in the top 7 cm of soil, and 8–11% in the top 20 cm of soil (p < 0.05, all sites), which supported significantly higher rates of stomatal conductance (73–100% increase) in both late-season invading species (p < 0.01, all sites). Flowering was significantly delayed in clipped plots for both invader species suggesting these species experienced a longer growing period (p < 0.0001 in all cases). In competition plots, the effects of clipping on the demographic response depended on neighborhood composition. When invaders were grown together, no significant effect of clipping on survival or reproduction was detected in either invader. However, when growing in mixtures with early-spring forage annuals or native species, clipping increased survival and reproductive output in late-season invader species by 3-fold. We suggest that strategies for arresting or reversing the dominance of these late-season invasive annuals must recognize the influence of current biomass management strategies on late-season resource availability.

Indirect effects of warming via phenology on reproductive success of alpine plants

Abstract Climate warming has induced pronounced shifts in the phenology of alpine plants worldwide, yet the impact of these changes on plant reproduction remains unclear, although phenology plays a vital role in reproduction. Based on a 7‐year field warming and altered precipitation experiment initiated in 2017, we measured three reproductive phenological events and seven reproductive traits of six dominant species, belonging to two flowering functional groups, to assess the effects of climate change on reproductive phenology and the reproductive consequence of changing the phenology in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau from 2021 to 2023. Warming significantly advanced the start of flowering in early‐spring flowering (ESF) and mid‐summer flowering (MSF) plants, while the fruiting period of ESF plants remained stable. Furthermore, warming led to a decrease in the number of seeds and productivity of alpine plants, while seed size remained stable. Phenological changes regulate the reproductive success of alpine plants. Specifically, the start of flowering for ESF plants and the start of fruiting for MSF plants regulated the number of seeds and productivity of the two flowering functional groups, respectively. The increase in phenological niche overlap and intensification of interspecific competition, caused by different phenological responses of the flowering functional groups to warming, also are key factors contributing to the decline in seed production of alpine plants. Synthesis. These results demonstrate that the reproductive success of alpine plants would be decreased by earlier reproduction under climate warming, and alpine plants tend to maintain stable seed size in response to climate change. Our study emphasizes the important regulatory and indicative role of reproductive phenology in the sexual reproduction of alpine plants under future climate change.

Predicting Wheat Potential Yield in China Based on Eco-Evolutionary Optimality Principles

Accurately predicting the wheat potential yield (PY) is crucial for enhancing agricultural management and improving resilience to climate change. However, most existing crop models for wheat PY rely on type-specific parameters that describe wheat traits, which often require calibration and, in turn, reduce prediction confidence when applied across different spatial or temporal scales. In this study, we integrated eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles with a universal productivity model, the Pmodel, to propose a comprehensive full-chain method for predicting wheat PY. Using this approach, we forecasted wheat PY across China under typical shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our findings highlight the following: (1) Incorporating EEO theory improves PY prediction performance compared to current parameter-based crop models. (2) In the absence of phenological responses, rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations universally benefit wheat growth and PY, while increasing temperatures have predominantly negative effects across most regions. (3) Warmer temperatures expand the window for selecting sowing dates, leading to a national trend toward earlier sowing. (4) By simultaneously considering climate impacts on wheat growth and sowing dates, we predict that PY in China’s main producing regions will significantly increase from 2020 to 2060 and remain stable under SSP126. However, under SSP370, while there is no significant trend in PY during 2020–2060, increases are expected thereafter. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers navigating the complexities of climate change and optimizing wheat production to ensure food security.

High voltinism, late-emerging butterflies are sensitive to interannual variation in spring temperature in North Carolina.

Climate change has been repeatedly linked to phenological shifts in many taxa, but the factors that drive variation in phenological sensitivity remain unclear. For example, relatively little is known about phenological responses in areas that have not exhibited a consistent warming trend, making it difficult to project phenological responses in response to future climate scenarios for these regions. We used an extensive community science dataset to examine changes in the adult flight onset dates of 38 butterfly species with interannual variation in spring temperatures in the Piedmont region of North Carolina, a region that did not experience a significant overall warming trend in the second half of the 20th century. We also explored whether voltinism, overwintering stage, and mean adult flight onset dates explain interspecific variation in phenological sensitivity to spring temperature. We found that 12 out of 38 species exhibited a significant advance in adult flight onset dates with higher spring temperatures. In comparison, none of the 38 species exhibited a significant advance with year. There was a significant interaction between mean onset flight date and voltinism, such that late-emerging, multivoltine species tended to be the most sensitive to spring temperature changes. We did not observe a significant correlation between phenological sensitivity and the overwintering stage. These results suggest that butterfly arrival dates may shift as temperatures are projected to rise in the southeastern United States, with late-emerging, multivoltine species potentially exhibiting the greatest shifts in adult flight onset dates.

Greening‐Induced Biophysical Impacts Lead to Earlier Spring and Autumn Phenology in Temperate and Boreal Forests

AbstractTree phenology, the timing of periodic biological events in trees, is highly sensitive to climate change. Previous studies have indicated that forest greening can impact the local climate by modifying the seasonal surface energy budget. However, the understanding of tree phenological responses to forest greening at large spatial scales remains limited. Utilizing satellite‐derived phenological and leaf area index data spanning from 2001 to 2021, herein we show that forest greening led to earlier spring and autumn phenology in both temperate and boreal forests. Our findings demonstrated that forest greening during winter and spring contributed to a reduction in surface albedo, resulting in biophysical warming and consequently advancing spring leaf phenology. Conversely, forest greening in summer and autumn induced biophysical cooling through increased evapotranspiration, leading to an earlier onset of autumn leaf phenology. Our findings highlight the significant impact of forest greening‐induced local seasonal climate changes on shaping tree phenology in temperate and boreal forests. It is crucial to consider these greening‐induced alterations in microclimate conditions when modeling changes in tree phenology under future climate warming scenarios.

Phenological response to climatic change depends on spring warming velocity

Climatic change is dramatically altering phenology but generalities regarding tempo and mode of response remain limited. Here we present a general model framework incorporating spring temperature, velocity of spring warming, and species’ thermal requirements for predicting phenological response to warming. A key prediction of this framework is that species active earlier in the season and located in warmer regions where spring temperature velocity is lowest show strongest sensitivity to climatic change and greatest advancement in response to warming. We test this prediction using plant phenology datasets collected in the 1850s and 2010s. Our results strikingly confirm model predictions, showing that while temperature sensitivity is higher in regions with low temperature velocity, the greatest realized change in phenological onset is northern areas where warming rates have been fastest. Our framework offers enhanced utility for predicting phenological sensitivity and responsiveness in temperate regions and across multiple plant species and potentially other groups.

Influence of vegetation phenological carryover effects on plant autumn phenology under climate change

Vegetation phenological carryover effects refer to the influence of previous phenological events on the current or subsequent ones. These effects can modulate the responses of autumn phenology to climate change, but the magnitude and duration of this effect remain poorly understood. Therefore, we employed multiple remote sensing datasets from 1982 to 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere (> 30°N) and partial correlation to investigate the influence of the carryover effect and environmental factors on the end of the growing season (EOS) over time. The importance of the variables in the projection score was used to quantify their relative importance. Our results showed that the previous year's EOS had a robust positive impact on the EOS for 40.02 % of the study area during 1982–2015, which was mainly located in the northern 50°N region. In contrast, the start of the growing season (SOS) was the main contributor to the EOS during 2001–2018, mainly at 40°N-50°N and in northern Russia. The carryover effect persisted into the subsequent year, but its strength and positive impacts varied dramatically in the next year. Concurrently, the mean correlation coefficient between climate factors and EOS rose from 0.20 to 0.22. Notably, the correlation coefficient for frost day frequency increased significantly (P < 0.05) from 0.15 to 0.36, with its influence area expanding from 10.29 % to 11.85 % of the study area. Compared with climate factors, the phenological carryover effect was the dominant driver of the EOS for each vegetation type, accounting for 72.8 % and 44.23 % of the total pixels during 1982–2015 and 2001–2018, respectively. Our study reveals a cascade of ecological consequences that extend beyond the initial occurrence and emphasizes the interconnectedness of growth stages in the plant life cycle, providing valuable insights into the adaptability and vulnerability of plant communities.

Evaluation of the spatial responses in vegetation phenology to drought and the analysis of their driving factors in China

The warming and drying trend accompanying climate change challenges global ecosystem stability. Vegetation phenology, which can serve as a sensitive indicator of climate change, is crucial in understanding ecosystem carbon cycling and climate-carbon cycle feedback. Therefore, assessing the phenological responses to drought is essential for addressing climate change. In this study, vegetation phenology data [including the start and end of season (SOS, EOS) and length of growing season (LOS)] and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were employed to analyze the impacts of drought on plant phenology in China by maximum Pearson correlation coefficients and partial least squares regression. The findings showed that drought significantly affected the timing of phenology, delaying senescence in approximately 62% of China and extending the growing season in about 53% of the country, indicating the critical role of water availability in vegetation biomass. Preseason nocturnal warming was found to advance SOS, delay EOS, and extend LOS across China, with significant effects observed in approximately 60% of the country. Meanwhile, daytime warming delayed SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in 50∼60% of the regions. Moreover, preseason precipitation is conducive to advanced SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in northern China and areas susceptible to drought. It is suggested that vegetation management should be strengthened to mitigate the impact of climate change in temperate and drought-prone regions in China since climate warming will lead to frequent droughts.

Flowering in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by frost after leaf-out

Late spring frosts, occurring after spring phenological events, pose a dire threat to tree growth and forest productivity. With climate warming, earlier spring phenological events have become increasingly common and led to plants experiencing more frequent and severe frost damage. However, the effect of late spring frosts after leaf-out on subsequent flowering phenology in woody species remains unknown. Utilizing 572,734 phenological records of 640 species at 5024 sites from four long-term and large-scale in situ phenological networks across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that late spring frosts following leaf-out significantly delay the onset of the subsequent flowering by approximately 6.0 days. Late-leafing species exhibit greater sensitivity to the frosts than early-leafing species, resulting in a longer delay of 2.5 days in flowering. Trees in warm regions and periods exhibit a more pronounced frost-induced flowering delay compared to those in cold regions and periods. A significant increase in the frequency of late spring frost occurrence is observed in recent decades. Our findings elucidate the intricate relationships among leaf-out, frost, and flowering but also emphasize that the sequential progression of phenological events, rather than individual phenological stages, should be considered when assessing the phenological responses to climate change.

Cross-continental comparison of plant reproductive phenology shows high intraspecific variation in temperature sensitivity

Abstract The success of plant species under climate change will be determined, in part, by their phenological responses to temperature. Despite the growing need to forecast such outcomes across entire species ranges, it remains unclear how phenological sensitivity to temperature might vary across individuals of the same species. In this study, we harnessed community science data to document intraspecific patterns in phenological temperature sensitivity across the multicontinental range of six herbaceous plant species. Using linear models, we correlated georeferenced temperature data with 23 220 plant phenological records from iNaturalist to generate spatially explicit estimates of phenological temperature sensitivity across the shared range of species. We additionally evaluated the geographic association between local historic climate conditions (i.e. mean annual temperature [MAT] and interannual variability in temperature) and the temperature sensitivity of plants. We found that plant temperature sensitivity varied substantially at both the interspecific and intraspecific levels, demonstrating that phenological responses to climate change have the potential to vary both within and among species. Additionally, we provide evidence for a strong geographic association between plant temperature sensitivity and local historic climate conditions. Plants were more sensitive to temperature in hotter climates (i.e. regions with high MAT), but only in regions with high interannual temperature variability. In regions with low interannual temperature variability, plants displayed universally weak sensitivity to temperature, regardless of baseline annual temperature. This evidence suggests that pheno-climatic forecasts may be improved by accounting for intraspecific variation in phenological temperature sensitivity. Broad climatic factors such as MAT and interannual temperature variability likely serve as useful predictors for estimating temperature sensitivity across species’ ranges.

Impact of Climate Change on Peach Fruit Moth Phenology: A Regional Perspective from China.

It is widely recognized that the phenology of insects, of which the life activities are closely tied to temperature, is shifting in response to global climate warming. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the phenology of Carposina sasakii Matsumura, 1900 (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) across large temporal and spatial scales, through collecting and systematically analyzing historical data on the pest's occurrence and population dynamics in China. The results showed that for overwintering adults, the first occurrence date in eastern, northwestern, and northern China has significantly advanced, along with the population peak in eastern and northwestern China. At the provincial level, the population peak date in Shandong province has also moved significantly earlier, as well as the population peak date in Shandong and Shaanxi and the end occurrence date in Ningxia. However, the population peak date in Jilin has experienced a delayed trend. For first-generation adults, the first occurrence date in northeastern, eastern, and central China has notably advanced, while the first appearance date in northwestern and northern China has significantly delayed. Additionally, the population peak in northwestern China has experienced significant delays, along with the final occurrence in northeastern and northwestern China. At the provincial level, the first occurrence date in Liaoning, Shandong, and Shanxi has significantly advanced, while Hebei has demonstrated a significant delay. The population peak time in Gansu and Shaanxi has displayed significant delays, and the end occurrence date in Liaoning, Shanxi, and Shaanxi has also shown significant delays. Furthermore, these findings integrated with the Pearson correlation results reveal spatial heterogeneity in C. sasakii's phenological responses to climate warming at both regional and provincial scales. The phenology of C. sasakii and their changing patterns with climate warming vary by geographical location. This study provides valuable information for the future monitoring, prediction, and prevention of peach fruit moths in the context of climate warming.

Phenological trends and associated climate drivers of a tree community in lowland dipterocarp forest, Western Ghats, India.

Understanding phenological responses of tropical forest plant communities is crucial for identifying climate-induced changes in ecosystem dynamics. Monitoring phenology across diverse species in natural habitats provides cost-effective insights for conserving both species and forests. We studied tree phenology in a lowland evergreen dipterocarp forest in the Western Ghats, India. About 719 tree individuals representing 95 species were monitored for their vegetative and reproductive phenology from April 2021 to September 2023. Circular statistics detected seasonality in phenological events and Generalized Linear Mixed Modelling (GLMM) identified influence of climate variables on the phenological responses of the tree community. We also assessed how the activity and intensity of phenophases vary over the study period. Our results showed that leaf flushing and flowering peaked during the dry season, with mass flowering observed in two dominant dipterocarps. Fruit production peaked before the monsoon. We also observed diversity in vegetative and reproductive phenodynamics across species groups (forest strata, sexual system, and seed size). Leaf flushing was positively correlated with maximum relative humidity and negatively correlated with maximum temperature and the number of rainy days. Flowering had negative correlations with maximum relative humidity, rainfall days, and maximum temperature but showed a positive correlation with minimum temperature. Fruiting was positively correlated with maximum temperature and negatively correlated with rainy days. This detailed phenological information provides critical knowledge on resource availability and insights into how climate and seasonal changes affect plant growth cycles thereby aiding reforestation and biodiversity conservation strategies in vulnerable forest areas.

Warming could shift the phenological responses of benthic microalgae in temperate intertidal zones

Intertidal mudflats colonized by sediment-dwelling microphytobenthos deliver a wide range of ecosystem services. Here we simulate the response of microphytobenthos, located on a temperate tidal mudflat along the French Atlantic coast in Northwestern Europe, exposed to changes in light, temperature, and sea level conditions predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Without sea level rise, microphytobenthos benefit from the balancing effect of net primary production fluctuations, experiencing an increase in winter and a decrease in summer. Under the worst emissions scenario, microphytobenthos bloom up to 14 days earlier in spring and 5 days later in fall, thereby extending the low-level microphytobenthos biomass period by an additional 3 weeks in summer. Sea level rise reduces light exposure leading to a pronounced decline in microphytobenthos under the medium-low emissions and worst emissions scenarios. We provide evidence that the anticipated warmer climate and sea level rise will have an impact on microphytobenthos, potentially triggering cascading effects across the entire food web and disrupting ecosystem services.

Pollination‐related plant traits under environmental changes: Seasonal and daily mismatches produce temporal constraints

Abstract Pollination is a key tenet of ecosystem sustainability and food security, but it is threatened by climate change. While many studies investigated the response of plant‐pollination traits to temperature, few attempted multifactorial and integrative approaches with multiple floral traits. We determined which plant‐pollination traits were disrupted by environmental changes and the consequence for plant fitness. We focused on the thermogenic plant, Arum italicum, which relies on floral scent and heat production to attract its pollinators with a deceptive strategy. In a field mesocosm, we measured the response of floral phenology, thermogenesis traits, scent and plant fitness to experimental changes in shade level, water supply and soil temperature. In the laboratory, we exposed plants to extreme heat to determine the thermoregulation ability at high temperatures. Plant fitness decreased dramatically in response to soil warming and the level of shade. While both factors caused a lower number of inflorescences, soil warming was mostly responsible for the crash in number of fruits. The plant traits related to thermogenesis and scent were relatively resilient to the environmental changes in the mesocosm and were unlikely to produce the observed decrease in plant fitness. First, environmental changes only weakly modified the scent composition. Second, the appendix regulated its maximal temperature almost perfectly, while stamen regulated imperfectly. In the laboratory experiment, the appendix maintained a thermal gradient supposedly to improve scent emission while stamen became cooler than ambient air, possibly preventing the pollinators from overheating within the floral chamber. By contrast, the phenology of flowering was drastically modified. Flowers appeared earlier in the season in response to soil warming (by 39 days) or absence of shade (by 19 days). At the daily scale, flowering hour did not change across the season resulting in plants flowering before sunset late in the season and before the pollinator activity window (mostly nocturnal). The strong shift observed in the flowering period may induce a temporal mismatch with this pollinator both early and late in the season when the insects may not be active so early in the spring and during daytime, respectively, thereby altering plant fitness. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Phenological response of plants of different biomorphs to climate change in Western Siberia

The results of a phenology study of 78 species of perennial plants from biomorphological groups of chamaephytes, hemicryptophytes and geophytes over a 20-year period (1996—2015) are discussed. Against the background of air temperature and precipitation changes of the warm season in Novosibirsk, the timing shift in phenological events have been analyzed using calculated linear trends. It is found that the trends for species groups are multidirectional and vary significantly in magnitude. At the same time, most of the shifts in phenology are due not to trends, but to the interannual variability of climatic indicators.

From Delay to Advance: The Impact of Increasing Drought on Autumn Photosynthetic Phenology in Subtropical and Tropical Forests

AbstractDrought dramatically impacts the autumn phenology of vegetation. However, the underlying mechanisms of vegetation autumn phenology responses to drought in tropical and subtropical forests remain unclear. Here, we employed three fitting methods to extract the end‐of‐photosynthetic‐growing‐season (EOPS) dates and quantified their responses to drought intensity using ridge regression and correlation analysis. Our analysis revealed a general delay in the trend of EOPS at an average rate of 3.6 days per decade from 2001 to 2020 in southern China. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) emerged as the primary influencing predictor of EOPS processes, surpassing the impacts of temperature, precipitation, and radiation. Notably, our analysis highlighted a shift in the response of EOPS to drought from delay to advancement when drought intensity exceeded 0.38. Incorporating this reversal phenomenon into EOPS models is crucial for accurately predicting autumn phenology under future escalating drought conditions.

Effects of Climate Changes and Crop Phenological Responses on Soil Organic Carbon of Cultivated Land in Fujian Province

Research on the mechanism of how climate change affects cultivated soil organic carbon is the basis for the management of cultivated land quality in the context of climate change. Crop phenological responses to climate change have an important effect on cultivated soil organic carbon as well. However, previous research primarily focused on the independent effects of climate change or crop phenological responses on the changes in soil organic carbon, and few studies have analyzed the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon under the combined influence of both factors or quantified their contribution rates to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon. Based on topsoil samples in 2008 and 2021, annual pre-season and mid-season climate data from 2008 to 2021, and the phenological parameters extracted from the enhanced vegetation index （EVI） time series from 2007 to 2022, a soil organic carbon predictive model was constructed using the random forest algorithm. The total change in soil organic carbon from 2008 to 2021, the change in soil organic carbon under climate change alone, and the change in soil organic carbon under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses were simulated. Furthermore, the contributions of climate change and crop phenological responses to the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon were distinguished and quantified. Moreover, the dominant influencing factors of soil organic carbon changes and their spatial distributions were identified and analyzed. The results were as follows： ① Under the synergistic influence of climate change and crop phenological responses, a decrease was observed in soil organic carbon in 74.15% of the cultivated land area in Fujian Province during the years 2008-2021, with an average decrease of 2.20 g·kg-1. Additionally, there was an increase in soil organic carbon in 25.85% of the cultivated area, with an average increase of 1.48 g·kg-1. ②The average contribution rates of pre-season climate, crop phenological responses to climate change, mid-season climate, and phenological changes resulting from cultivars shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures to soil organic carbon changes were 34.08%, 28.56%, 22.75%, and 14.61%, respectively. Overall, climate change had a greater impact on the changes in cultivated soil organic carbon in Fujian Province than the crop phenological response to climate change. ③ The regions where climate change and phenological response jointly acted as dominant influencing factors held the largest area, accounting for 47.06% of the total cultivated land area in Fujian Province, and the regions where climate change was the dominant influencing factor alone held the second-largest area, accounting for 28.64% of the total cultivated land area. ④ Higher contribution rates of pre-season climate factors and phenological changes resulting from cultivar shifts or other adjustments of agricultural measures tended to be distributed in higher-altitude areas, whereas higher contribution rates of mid-season climate factors and phenological responses to climate change tended to be distributed in lower-altitude areas. These research findings can provide a theoretical basis for decision making regarding the management of cultivated land quality and the safeguarding of food security in the context of climate change.

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability.

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

Assessing the phenology and reproductive output of loggerhead turtles in relation to climatic variables at Patara Beach, Türkiye

AbstractLoggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), being ectothermic organisms, could be especially susceptible to climate change effects, and may exhibit climate‐related variation in their reproductive behaviours such as phenology, annual nest numbers, clutch size, hatching success, incubation period and sex ratio. This study investigated the reproductive phenology and outputs of loggerhead turtles and their relationships with climatic variables over a 5‐year period (2019–2023) at Patara Beach, Türkiye. We found significant fluctuations in atmospheric temperature, sea surface temperature and relative humidity, and that female turtle emergences on Patara Beach could temporarily adjust their phenology in response to these minor environmental changes. We highlight the importance of understanding the impacts of phenological shifts on the ability to satisfy the conditions over the nesting season that determine reproductive output. Our statistical analyses also showed that increasing sea water temperatures and atmospheric temperatures, as well as decreasing precipitation and relative humidity, had direct and/or indirect effects on the nesting phenology and reproductive output of loggerhead turtles. The findings from this study indicate that atmospheric temperature significantly affected incubation period, hatching success rate, the number of dead embryos and the number of empty eggshells. Additionally, relative humidity had a significant impact on the incubation period and the number of empty eggshells. In this context, rising temperatures led to drier nest conditions, decreased incubation periods and increased nest temperatures, resulting in higher proportions of female offspring. In conclusion, there are still gaps in our understanding of the effects of climate change on the reproductive biology of loggerhead turtles, and more studies are needed at both the Mediterranean and global scales to better understand these effects.