Phase Of Quasi-biennial Oscillation Research Articles

An empirical model for the tropical Indian region using in-situ and space-borne observations taking into account of tropical oscillations

An empirical model of temperature is developed using long-term observations of radiosonde (52 years), M-100 Rocket (17 years), and Sounding of the Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) (22 years) data. The dominant oscillations such as Annual Oscillation (AO), Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), Terr-Annual oscillation (TAO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) variability has been incorporated into the temperature to obtain the empirical atmosphere. The monthly mean of temperature obtained from radiosonde from 0 to 25 km, M-100 rocket from 26 to 80 km and SABER from 26 to 109 km has been subjected to the Fast Fourier Transform technique to retrieve the amplitudes and phases of AO, SAO, TAO, and QBO. The amplitudes and phases obtained are put in an empirical formula along with the temperature obtained from the observations to retrieve the empirical temperature. The empirical model is developed for two epochs (1971–1990, and 2002–2023). The amplitude is similar in both epochs for the TAO, and it is high in the first compared to the second epoch for SAO, AO, and QBO. The peak in the amplitude (3–4 K) is obtained between 80 and 90 km for TAO, and between 70 and 80 km (2–3 K) for SAO. The amplitude is less than 1 K for AO in both the epochs. The peaks in the QBO are observed between 20 and 30 km (2–3 K), another between 60 and 70 km (3–4 K) in the first epoch and above 80 km (2–3 K). Downward phase propagation is dominant for all the oscillations observed below 50 km, and upward propagation above. The empirical temperature obtained compares well with the observations below 20 km (RMSE <1 K) and shows differences above it (RMSE ∼ 4–6 K). This is due to the fact, that the amplitude of the oscillation is more in the stratosphere and mesosphere which results in perturbation of the background temperature.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Long‐Term Trends in Extratropical Wave Forcing, and the Observed Strengthening of the QBO‐MJO Connection

AbstractA modulation has been identified of the tropical Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) by the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) such that the MJO in boreal winter is ∼40% stronger and persists ∼10 days longer during the easterly QBO phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase. A proposed mechanism is reductions of tropical lower stratospheric static stability during QBOE caused by (a) the QBO induced meridional circulation; and (b) QBO influences on extratropical wave forcing of the stratospheric residual meridional circulation during early winter. Here, long‐term variability of the QBO‐MJO connection and associated variability of near‐tropopause tropical static stability and extratropical wave forcing are investigated using European Center reanalysis data for the 1959–2021 period. During the most reliable (post‐satellite) part of the record beginning in 1979, a strengthening of the QBO‐MJO modulation has occurred during a time when tropical static stability in the lowermost stratosphere and uppermost troposphere has been decreasing and extratropical wave forcing in early winter has been increasing. A high inverse correlation (R = −0.87) is obtained during this period between early winter wave forcing anomalies and wintertime tropical lower stratospheric static stability. Regression relationships are used to show that positive trends in early winter wave forcing during this period have likely contributed to decreases in tropical static stability, favoring a stronger QBO‐MJO connection. As shown in previous work, increased sea level pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia produced by Arctic sea ice loss may have been a significant source of the observed positive trends in early winter wave forcing.

The Key Role of the Vertical Structure of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in the Variations of Asian Precipitation in Summer

AbstractBased on observations and numerical simulations, this study explores the responses of Asian precipitations in summer to the vertical structure of Stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and the relevant mechanisms. Compared to the QBO phase defined by a particular level traditionally, considering QBO's vertical structure leads to more significant precipitation responses. When the tropical zonal winds exhibit easterlies (westerlies) at 70 hPa and westerlies (easterlies) at both 30 and 50 hPa, there are downwellings (upwellings) over tropics and upwellings (downwellings) over mid‐latitudes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The meridional movement of the subtropical westerly jet is related to this secondary circulation, accompanied by anomalies of the South Asian High. These circulation anomalies lead to anomalous lower tropospheric circulations, causing abnormal vertical velocities and moisture transports, resulting in increased precipitation over South Asia and decreased precipitation in the Yangtze River basin.

Role of Quasi-Biennial oscillation on the link between sudden stratospheric warming and tropical weather events

This paper illustrates the modulation of meteorological parameters over the tropics in the east and west phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Twenty years composite of SSW episodes have been analysed, and the results show a teleconnection between northern polar SSW and changes in meteorological parameters throughout tropical troposphere to stratosphere during both the phases of QBO. The tropical troposphere shows different temperature pattern in the two opposite phases of QBO during polar SSW. The lower tropospheric temperature decreases about five days prior to the onset day, persisting as such as for about five days post-onset day, and increases rapidly during the east phase whereas a sudden dip in temperature is observed in the west phase. The easterly wind at the upper tropospheric region is observed to be coupled to the easterly wind in the QBO core region of stratosphere during the easterly phase of QBO whereas they are decoupled in the westerly phase. Prior to the peak polar warming, a strong convective cell develops over the southern hemispheric tropics, and a convective cell develops over northern hemisphere during the peak warming period. This study indicates that during the easterly QBO-SSW period, increasing tropopause easterly wind causes tropopause cooling due to easterly wind's coupling with the QBO core region around the onset day of SSW. As a result, the changes in the tropopause strengthen the Hadley cell circulation thus enhancing the convective activity over the tropical region associated with northern polar SSW. Contrary to the prior knowledge of convection being centred mostly along 5°S–10°S, it is found that other convection band located at around 10°N also produces rainfall in the tropical region.

Projected Strengthening Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Southern Hemisphere by CMIP5/6 Models

Abstract Using 20 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-resolving models from phases 5/6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6), this study examines the projected Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical response to the QBO. Nine of the 22 models simulate decelerated circumpolar westerlies during easterly QBO (EQBO) in the historical climate as is observed, though only ∼30% of the observed change is reproduced in the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of these high-skill models. These high-skill models project an enhanced stratospheric QBO teleconnection for both emissions scenarios. Further, the stratospheric wind anomaly in high latitudes is projected to move to midlatitudes in future scenarios. The climatological subtropical jet is projected to strengthen, while tropical easterlies are projected to weaken. As a consequence, upward wave activity in the future appears to become more sensitive to the QBO phase. Enhanced upward propagation of waves in mid- to high latitudes during EQBO are much stronger in future scenarios than in historical simulations. The anomalous downwelling over the Antarctic, as part of the Brewer–Dobson deep branch response to EQBO, is also projected to strengthen, corresponding to increased warm anomalies. In future scenarios, the areal extent of the deep convective response to EQBO over the Maritime Continent widens and includes a sharper reduction in outgoing longwave radiation, albeit with southward expansion from Indonesia to Australia. The enhancement and spatial shift in the stratospheric polar vortex pathway and tropical convection pathway subsequently lead to changes in the tropospheric QBO signal. An annular mode–like response forms in the troposphere and near-surface in the present climate, whereas this pattern shifts farther equatorward in future projections with circulation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean amplifying. Significance Statement The influence of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been reported to intensify in the Northern Hemisphere under climate change, even as the QBO wind magnitude weakens. It is still unknown whether the influence of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere intensifies or weakens in a warm climate. Using simulations from multiple models, this study finds that the influence of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere is projected to strengthen in most models even as the QBO weakens. Two QBO pathways are explored, including the stratospheric polar vortex route and the tropical convection pathway, both of which are projected to amplify in both the moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. In addition to the amplification of the QBO signals in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, an equatorward shift of the maximum anomalies is also projected. That is, the maximum easterly anomalies in the Antarctic stratosphere during easterly QBO and the annular mode–like pattern in the troposphere or the near-surface shifts farther equatorward.

Understanding the Mechanisms for Tropical Surface Impacts of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

AbstractThe impact of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical convection and precipitation is investigated through nudging experiments using the UK Met Office Hadley Center Unified Model. The model control simulations show robust links between the internally generated QBO and tropical precipitation and circulation. The model zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere was nudged above 90 hPa in atmosphere‐only and coupled ocean‐atmosphere configurations. The convection and precipitation in the atmosphere‐only simulations do not differ between the experiments with and without nudging, which may indicate that SST‐convection coupling is needed for any QBO influence on the tropical lower troposphere and surface. In the coupled experiments, the precipitation and sea‐surface temperature relationships with the QBO phase disappear when nudging is applied. Imposing a realistic QBO‐driven static stability anomaly in the upper‐troposphere lower‐stratosphere is not sufficient to simulate tropical surface impacts. The nudging reduced the influence of the lower troposphere on the upper branch of the Walker circulation, irrespective of the QBO, indicating that the upper tropospheric zonal circulation has been decoupled from the surface by the nudging. These results suggest that grid‐point nudging mutes relevant feedback processes occurring at the tropopause level, including high cloud radiative effects and wave mean flow interactions, which may play a key role in stratospheric‐tropospheric coupling.

QBO Phase Synchronization in CMIP6 Historical Simulations Attributed to Ozone Forcing

AbstractTropical stratospheric variability is investigated in ensembles of historical simulations performed by nine models for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Realizations from all the models feature a reasonable quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Variability in the zonal mean zonal winds at the equator is found to be coherent among realizations when a model prescribes the CMIP6 ozone forcing. No such coherence is found when a model simulates ozone. The coherence results in an ensemble mean QBO signal with amplitude, depending on the model, 50%–80% of the mean QBO amplitude from a single realization from the same model. The ensemble mean signal is due to synchronization of QBO phases, attributed to the CMIP6 protocol including a QBO signal in the ozone forcing. Coherence in models using the CMIP6 ozone is, therefore, artificial and individual realizations from these models are not completely independent.

Evaluation of Processes Related to Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in GEFSv12 Subseasonal Hindcasts

Abstract The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured.

Decadal changes in the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone and sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific

Using multi-source observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study found that the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone in March and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in April shows dramatic decadal changes, and it significantly weakens since the 2000s. By enhancing the stratospheric circulations, a decreased Arctic stratospheric ozone favors tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO)-like anomaly during PRE eras (1979–1999), with positive geopotential height (GH) anomalies over high-latitude Asia. The stratospheric ozone anomaly also favors the Asian positive GH anomalies via modulating high cloud and its related longwave radiation. According to geostrophic wind relationships, the Asian positive GH anomalies are accompanied by easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia in late March, which further extend eastward and thereby induce easterly anomalies over the midlatitude North Pacific. The North Pacific easterly anomalies result in negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like anomaly via vorticity forcing of zonal wind and the interactions between synoptic-scale eddies and mean flow, forcing significant SST anomalies. However, during POST eras (2000–2019), firstly, the +AO-related positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia are relatively weak, accompanied by weak easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia according to geostrophic wind relations, which induce weak easterly anomalies over the North Pacific. Secondly, a westerly anomaly occurs over the midlatitude North Pacific, which partly offsets the easterly anomalies from Asia, weakening the North Pacific easterly anomalies. The weak easterly anomalies further induce weak –NPO and SST anomalies during the POST eras. Our analysis further indicates that the North Pacific westerly anomalies and weakening of the positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia associated with ozone are related to the interference of the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation and the weakened stratospheric ozone anomaly over high-latitude Asia, respectively.

Global monsoon systems and their modulation by the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Monthly-mean data of ERA-Interim reanalysis, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and sea surface temperature(SST) are investigated for 40 years (1979-2018) to reveal the modulation of the global monsoon systems by the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), focusing only on the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods (in total 374 months). First, the climatology of the global monsoon systems is viewed with longitude-latitude plots of the precipitation, its proxies and lower tropospheric circulations for the annual mean and two solstice seasons, together with the composite differences between the two seasons. In addition to seasonal variations of Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs), several regional monsoon systems are well identified with an anti-phase of the annual cycle between the two hemispheres. Precipitation-related quantities (OLR and specific humidity), surface conditions [i.e., mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and SST] and circulation fields related to moist convection systems show fundamental features of the global monsoon systems. After introducing eight QBO phases based on the leading two principal components of the zonal-mean zonal wind variations in the equatorial lower-stratosphere, the statistical significance of the composite difference in the precipitation and tropospheric circulation is evaluated for the opposite QBO phases. The composite differences show significant modulations in some regional monsoon systems, dominated by zonally asymmetric components, with the largest magnitudes for specific QBO-phases corresponding to traditional indices of the equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind at 20 and 50 hPa. Along the equator, significant QBO influence is characterized by the modulation of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific. In middle latitudes during boreal summer, for a specific QBO-phase, statistically significant modulation of low-pressure cyclonic perturbation is obtained over the Northern-Hemisphere western Pacific Ocean associated with statistically significant features of heavier precipitation over the eastern side of the cyclonic perturbation and the opposite lighter precipitation over the western side. During boreal winter, similar significant low-pressure cyclonic perturbations were found over the Northern-Hemisphere eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans for specific phases.

Development of a Statistical Subseasonal Forecast Tool to Predict California Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Based on MJO and QBO Activity

AbstractThis paper examines the empirical relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and atmospheric river (AR) activity and precipitation in California on subseasonal time scales. We introduce an experimental forecast tool that uses observed anomaly patterns during a 38 yr period to predict the probability of above‐ and below‐normal AR activity and precipitation at lead times of 1–6 weeks based on the phase and amplitude of the MJO and QBO. The hindcast prediction skill of probabilistic AR activity and precipitation forecasts is evaluated for Northern, Central, and Southern California, as well as two sets of smaller geographical domains. These smaller domains are more relevant for water resource management and allow us to investigate the sensitivity of prediction skill to domain size. Consistent with previous studies, our results demonstrate that subseasonal AR activity and precipitation in California are strongly modulated by the MJO and QBO. The anomaly patterns of AR activity and precipitation vary considerably throughout the cool season, with a tendency toward below‐normal AR activity and precipitation during easterly QBO and above‐normal AR activity and precipitation during westerly QBO in JFM. The opposite patterns are generally observed in OND, but the anomaly signals are weaker and less coherent for AR activity. Certain combinations of MJO phase, QBO phase, lag time, and season yield notably higher skill scores, reinforcing the notion of “windows of opportunity” for skillful subseasonal‐to‐seasonal predictions. In California, these forecasts of opportunity are predominantly associated with easterly QBO in JFM and FMA.

The role of Antarctic sea ice in modulating the relationship between September–October Antarctic Oscillation and following January–February wet and cold weather in southern China

AbstractA previous study found that the September–October (SO) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) shows an out‐of‐phase variation of late January–February (JF) wet and cold weather (wet–cold) in southern China. This study explored the underlying mechanism and found that Antarctic sea ice may be responsible partially for such a relationship. The SO AAO stimulates the Antarctic sea‐ice dipole pattern (ADP) anomalies, which induce the anomalous convective precipitation of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in Latin America‐Atlantic (LAA) and Western Pacific (WP) in following JF. The anomalous convections over the ITCZ regions trigger planetary wave dispersions from the tropical LAA and WP to adjust the East Asian atmospheric circulation. Through the bridge of anomalous ITCZ, an increased JF ADP decreases the invasion of both northerly cold air flow and southwesterly moist airflow into southern China, resulting in the dissipation of wet–cold and vice versa. Furthermore, the variation of JF ADP is well correlated with the in‐phased polar vortex, connecting to the stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The variation of JF QBO induces the anomalous convection over the tropical North Atlantic and ITCZ in LAA and WP, in turn modulating the contemporary invasion of cold and wet airflow into southern China by Rossby wave dispersion, subsequently wet–cold in southern China. To summarize, JF ADP affects the simultaneous wet–cold in southern China through the anomalous ITCZ. The turning phase of QBO modulates such correlation by inducing the anomalous ITCZ correlated with ADP and the anomalous convection due to QBO itself over tropical North Atlantic.

Summertime ozone pollution in China affected by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

Abstract. In recent years, the near-surface ozone (O3) level has been rising fast in China, with increasing damage to human health and ecosystems. In this study, the impact of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on interannual variations in summertime tropospheric O3 over China is investigated based on GEOS-Chem model simulations and satellite retrievals. QBO has a significant positive correlation with near-surface O3 concentrations over central China (92.5–112.5∘ E, 26–38∘ N) when the sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, with a correlation coefficient of 0.53, but QBO has no significant effect on O3 under the cold SST anomaly. Compared to the easterly phase of QBO, the near-surface O3 concentrations have an increase of up to 3 ppb (5 % relative to the average) over central China during its westerly phase under the warm SST anomaly. O3 also increases above the surface and up to the upper troposphere, with a maximum increase of 2–3 ppb (3 %–5 %) in 850–500 hPa over central China when comparing westerly phase to easterly phase. Process-based analysis and sensitivity simulations suggest that the O3 increase over central China is mainly attributed to the anomalous downward transport of O3 during the westerly phase of QBO when a warm SST anomaly occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the local chemical reactions and horizontal transport processes partly offset the O3 increase. This work suggests a potentially important role of QBO and the related vertical transport process in affecting near-surface O3 air quality, with an indication for O3 pollution prediction and prevention.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Numerical simulation of stratospheric QBO impact on the planetary waves up to the thermosphere

With the help of numerical simulation, a detailed analysis of the dynamical effect of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial zonal wind on the planetary waves (PWs) up to thermospheric heights is carried out for the first time. The 3-dimensional nonlinear mechanistic model of middle and upper atmosphere (MUAM) is used, which is capable of simulating the general atmospheric circulation from the surface up to 300–400 km altitude. The amplitudes of stationary and westward travelling PWs with periods from 4 to 10 days are calculated based on ensembles of model simulations for conditions corresponding to the easterly and westerly QBO phases. Fluxes of wave activity and refractive indices of the atmosphere are calculated to analyze the detailed behavior of the PWs. The important result to emerge is that the stratospheric QBO causes statistically significant changes in the amplitudes of individual wave components up to 25% in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere and 10% changes above 200 km. This change in wave structures should be especially noticeable in the atmosphere during periods of low solar activity, when the direct contribution of solar activity fluctuations is minimized. Propagating from the troposphere to the upper atmosphere, PWs contribute to the propagation of the QBO signal not only from the equatorial region to extratropical latitudes, but also from the stratosphere to the thermosphere. The need for a detailed analysis of large-scale wave disturbances in the upper atmosphere and their relationship with the underlying layers is due, in particular, to their significant impact on satellite navigation and communication systems, which is caused by amplitude and phase fluctuations of the radio signal.

Phase Unlocking and the Modulation of Tropopause-Level Trace Gas Advection by the Quasibiennial Oscillation.

Open questions about the modulation of near-surface trace gas variability by stratosphere-troposphere tracer transport complicate efforts to identify anthropogenic sources of gases such as CFC-11 and N2O and disentangle them from dynamical influences. In this study, we explore one model's modulation of lower stratospheric tracer advection by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal winds at 50hPa. We assess instances of coherent modulation versus disruption through phase unlocking with the seasonal cycle in the model and in observations. We quantify modeled advective contributions to the temporal rate of change of stratospheric CFC-11 and N2O at extratropical and high-latitudes by calculating a transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) budget across isentropic surfaces from a 10-member WACCM4 ensemble simulation. We find that positive interannual variability in seasonal tracer advection generally occurs in the easterly QBO phase, as in previous work, and briefly discuss physical mechanisms. Individual simulations of the 10-member ensemble display phase-unlocking disruptions from this general pattern due to seasonally varying synchronizations between the model's repeating 28-month QBO cycle and the 12-month seasonal cycle. We find that phase locking and unlocking patterns of tracer advection calculations inferred from observations fall within the envelope of the ensemble member results. Our study bolsters evidence for variability in the interannual stratospheric dynamical influence of CFC-11 near-surface concentrations by assessing the QBO modulation of lower stratospheric advection via synchronization with the annual cycle. It identifies a likely cause of variations in the QBO influence on tropospheric abundances.

Zonally asymmetric influences of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), as the dominant mode in the equatorial stratosphere, modulates the dynamical circulation and the distribution of trace gases in the stratosphere. While the zonal mean QBO signals in stratospheric ozone have been relatively well documented, the zonal (longitudinal) differences in the QBO ozone signals have been less studied. Using satellite-based total column ozone (TCO) data from 1979 to 2020, zonal mean ozone data from 1984 to 2020, three-dimensional (3-D) ozone data from 2002 to 2020, and ERA5 reanalysis and model simulations from 1979 to 2020, we demonstrate that the influences of the QBO (using a QBO index at 20 hPa) on stratospheric ozone are zonally asymmetric. The global distribution of stratospheric ozone varies significantly during different QBO phases. During QBO westerly (QBOW) phases, the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high in the tropics, while in the subtropics they are anomalously low over most of the areas, especially during the winter–spring of the respective hemisphere. This confirms the results from previous studies. In the polar region, the TCO and stratospheric ozone (50–10 hPa) anomalies are seasonally dependent and zonally asymmetric. During boreal winter (December–February, DJF), positive anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are evident during QBOW over the regions from North America to the North Atlantic (120∘ W–30∘ E), while significant negative anomalies exist over other longitudes in the Arctic. In boreal autumn (September–November, SON), the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high from Greenland to Eurasia (60∘ W–120∘ E) but anomalously low in other regions over the Arctic. Weak positive TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies exist over the South America sector (90∘ W–30∘ E) of the Antarctic, while negative anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are seen in other longitudes. The consistent features of TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies indicate that the QBO signals in TCO are mainly determined by the stratospheric ozone variations. Analysis of meteorological conditions indicates that the QBO ozone perturbations are mainly caused by dynamical transport and also influenced by chemical reactions associated with the corresponding temperature changes. QBO affects the geopotential height and the polar vortex and subsequently the transport of ozone-rich air from lower latitudes to the polar region, which therefore influences the ozone concentrations over the polar region. The geopotential height anomalies associated with QBO (QBOW–QBOE) are zonally asymmetric with clear wave number 1 features, which indicates that QBO influences the polar vortex and stratospheric ozone mainly by modifying the wave number 1 activities.

Differences in Satellite‐Based Latent Heating Profiles Between the 2015/2016 Disruption and Westerly Phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

AbstractLatent heating (LH) profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) were employed to examine the LH distribution during the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption in the 2015/2016 Northern Hemispheric (NH) winter. We used the LH anomalies from the observation era climatology to compensate for the discontinuity between the TRMM and GPM LH. The difference in the LH anomalies (LHd) between the 2015/2016 winter and the typical winter coinciding with the westerly QBO phase revealed that deeper convective systems in the 2015/2016 winter shifted to the equator, releasing more latent heat relative to the convective systems in the winters coinciding with the westerly QBO phase. Comparison of the LHds calculated for each winter of 1998–2019 shows that the changes in the convective systems in the 2015/2016 winter were statistically exceptional among the changes in other winters. Inside the convective systems, stronger latent heat release and more frequent occurrences of deep convective and deep‐stratiform rain cells made up the total LHd during the 2015/2016 winter. Specifically, convective rain cells mainly derived the LHd of the convective systems in the 2015/2016 winter, except in February 2016. The results suggest that the LH increase from the typical winter with the westerly QBO phase may be considered an unusual equatorial wave source during the 2015/2016 QBO disruption. The signatures of the LHd profiles in the 10°S–10°N zonal band are sourced from the abnormal convective systems that were shifted from the western Pacific to the central‐to‐eastern Pacific.

Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable?

The predictability of Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 16 major SSWs that have occurred since 1998, a larger sample size than has been considered by previous works. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish those SSWs with above average predictability are a preconditioned vortex prior to the SSW, an active Madden‐Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, and the vortex morphology (displacement more predictable). Two of these factors appear to not have been considered in previous works focusing on a large sample of events. Most of these effects are not statistically significant at the 95% level due to the still relatively small sample size, though all would exceed a 90% criteria at least marginally. Combined, however, they account for 40% of the inter‐event spread in SSW predictability, thus indicating that SSWs with favorable precursors are significantly more predictable.

Long‐Term Variation of Lunar Semidiurnal Tides in the MLT Region Revealed by a Meteor Radar Chain

AbstractWe present a study on the long‐term variation of lunar semidiurnal (LSD) tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The study is based on a meteor radar chain along ∼120°E meridian, which consists of five stations located at Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 114.6°E), Sanya (SY, 18.3°N, 109.6°E), and Ledong (LD, 18.4°N, 109.0°E), respectively. Using the Lomb‐Scargle spectral analysis and least squares fitting method, strong quarter‐annual oscillations in the LSD are found at the three midlatitude stations and their magnitudes are comparable. The LSD magnitudes exhibit clear seasonal and latitudinal differences. The monthly mean magnitudes of LSD reach the maximum in January at all five stations but in other seasons they behave differently at different stations. Besides, the effects of polar vortex weakening (PVW) and quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) phases on the LSD are discussed. Based on the 12 PVW events, our study observes that the enhancement of the LSD is not always related to the commencements of PVW events. The enhancements of the LSD during the easterly QBO phase are generally stronger than those enhancements during the westerly QBO phase in the MLT region. The easterly QBO phase could modulate the mesospheric zonal mean zonal winds at low latitudes during the PVWs, which is in favor of amplifying the LSD. Our results suggest that the QBO phase is an important factor in enhancing the LSD in the MLT region during PVW events.