Phase Of Demographic Transition Research Articles

Influence of demographic processes on multifunctional use of natural resources

It is on a daily basis that modern humankind encounters a challenge to provide basic resources for living. Population growth leads to the emerging need to use natural resources (fresh water, oil, natural gas, coal, arable soil, etc.). The supplies and use of these resources are a persistent problem. As the process of urbanization intensifies, the awareness of the limitations of specific commercially overused resources rises. These processes are tightly connected with environment impairment and sustainable development. New technologies do increase productivity but the ratio of labor force and job positions decreases, raising an issue of future working population. Population and human resources have a multidimensional impact on economic growth of each country, which also includes continuous use of natural resources. A balanced population distribution is one of the crucial factors of functional sustainability of space, natural resource use, and social prosperity. It is in late 2020 that our planet marks the population of slightly less than eight billion and the figures will grow up to 10 billion in 2050. Changes in the structure and number of population affect many aspects of our lives. It is of an utmost pertinence to understand modern demographic processes in order to meet many challenges regarding natural resource use as these challenges are directly connected with fresh water shortage, hunger and underfeeding, climate change, diseases, economic growth, energetics shortage, clashes and wars. Even though natural resources play an important role, it is the human resources that matter the most. The specificity and exceptionality of human resources make them more relevant than other resources and they are extremely pertinent for the economic growth of any given area. Investing in human resources is more effective than investing in any other resource because of the ability of self-renewal and growth. In addition, human resources may employ all their mental, physical, and other available potentials. Hence, special attention should be paid to demographic processes and other changes taking place in regard to population. The fast scientific-technological revolution transformed the relation between demographic processes and natural resources, i.e. natural resource management. Centralization and the introduction of the so-called agribusiness market approach based on new economic models resulted in massive increase of productivity and efficiency in natural resource use, which successfully met the needs of the growing population but also led to wealth accumulation. Nevertheless, the same process caused the vast decrease and degradation of arable soil and forests, over-usage of natural resources, and irreversible destruction of habitats. Humankind gradually entered into a vicious circle of demographic growth, urbanization, increased food demands and requests for natural resources on one side and the increasing degradation of these resources on the other side. Unsustainability of natural resource management based solely on agribusiness market principles (supranational or global framework, accumulation of private property or corporate wealth) is becoming more evident. The Republic of Srpska is currently employed in the final phase of demographic transition, which is conditioned by poor economic growth and tertiarization, inadequate use of natural resources, and favorable transportation-geographical position, which has already initiated biological disturbances. Given the population density and distribution, the Republic of Srpska is an extremely homogeneous area with pronounced regional and interregional disparities. One such unbalanced spatial population distribution has negative effects on natural resource use and the total socio-economic growth. Most areas are affected by depopulation. The situation is most alarming in undersized and mountain settlements and areas along the entity borderline. The negative demographic conditions are further complicated by the negative migration balance so a large-scale depopulation becomes an emerging problem. Negative demographic features resulting from the current socio-economic situation, historical factors, and geopolitical issues from the 1990s are typical of the Republic of Srpska. All these determinants clearly indicate the unbalanced concentration and the decrease in the number of population. Early 21st century is demographically challenging for the Republic of Srpska as the number of population decreases and birth rates are negative. We may infer that demographic resources of the Republic of Srpska are humble and insufficient in regard to potential use of main natural resources (arable soil, forests, hydropotential, and mineral ore). The renewal of demographic resources depends on the constantly decreasing birth rates and, unfortunately, increasing mortality rates. If we add negative tendencies of intensive population aging and emigration, we may infer that the future use of natural resources shall be a great challenge to the economic growth of the Republic of Srpska. Hence, a question remains how to most optimally use natural and demographic resources in order to achieve a more balanced socio-economic growth in the Republic of Srpska.

Health and Environment

Bangladesh is passing through the dividend phase of demographic transition, with 45 million (over a quarter of the total population) in the age group of 15-29 years and 52.8 million (about a third) in the 15-36 age group. Young scientists belong to the upper segments of the later age group (some may be somewhat older than 36), who will in the fullness of time, take up leadership positions in their respective fields. Whatever be the field of human endeavour, the capability of the protagonists, is certainly a pivotal key to success. Indeed, human capability depends on education, skill training and health services. The better the availability of these services, the better is expected to be the ability acquired by the people concerned. One of these key services, health, is included in the theme of this conference. This paper has proposed that a universal health coverage (UHC) system be developed in Bangladesh so that people from all walks of life can access at least primary health services. The UHC can be developed centering around the 14,000 or so Community Clinics in place all around rural Bangladesh. Bangladesh is pursuing the goal of sustainable development within the UN adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development framework. This agenda is anchored on three pillars-economic, social and environmental. Sustainable development can be succinctly defined as socially acceptable, environmentally sound economic growth. Also, a basic tenet characterising sustainable development is that nobody can be left behind, i.e., everybody has to be included. The theme of this conference consist of the environmental pillar of sustainable development. In fact, the environment is the ultimate resource base of all development. Climate change, a major sub-set of environmental issues, is fast deteriorating and becoming an existential threat to humanity. This paper has discussed what has been happening in relation to climate change and what is being done to combat the menace globally and in Bangladesh. The efforts of Bangladesh in policy, programming, funding, and action in the context of responding to the increasingly adverse impacts on the country caused by the worsening climate change have been reviewed. Also, since this problem is global and cannot be adequately combatted by any one country, much less by a resource-poor country like Bangladesh, what role the international community is playing in this regard has been examined. The final section relates the lessons from the above discussions and reviews the future roles that young scientists need to play. J. Bangladesh Acad. Sci. 46(2); 129-134: December 2022

PENGARUH TRANSISI DEMOGRAFI TERHADAP KEMISKINAN

Various studies have been conducted to create policies that can reduce poverty rates, and several researchers have tried to look at the role of demography on poverty. One of them is discussing the relationship between components of demographic variables in Indonesia; cross-national regression shows that high fertility rates increase poverty by slowing economic growth. Combined fertility and mortality are associated with reduced fertility and mortality rates that simultaneously produce changes in population growth as a model of the demographic transition. Indonesia has almost completed this first demographic transition even in several provinces and districts, has passed the first demographic transition and is currently in the second demographic transition phase. Secondary data is macro, in the form of Indonesian time series data sourced from the World Bank, and is annual data, namely 1998-2019. An interesting relationship between the dependency ratio and the poverty rate is related to the term jobless growth, the more working-age, the more jobs are needed, but if there are not many jobs, unemployment will increase even though the economic growth is quite good.

Population Composition and Its Effect on Economic Growth

Background: The relationship between population and economic growth has always been a subject of debate. There has never been any clear consensus amongst economists about the nature and extent of influence that population has on the economic growth of a country. Objective: This paper aims to explore the influence exerted by the age structure of the population on the economic growth of a country. Method: The paper uses secondary data to find the relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita levels of countries and their respective Age Dependency Ratio.Result: There is a significant negative relationship between them, which implies that, if a country has a rise in a high proportion of the dependent population, per capita income will tend to be lower. Conclusion: The paper then makes a special study of the prospect of demographic dividend in India. The country is in the third phase of demographic transition, implying that the proportion of the working-age population is greater than the dependent population. This provides an ideal condition for the Government to reap the benefits of demographic dividend and achieve higher levels of economic growth.

Migration Pattern across the Indian States—Analysis of Census 2001 and 2011

The main objective of this paper is to study the interstate migration pattern in India. The data is collected for 13 states of India classified as low, middle and high-income states. The study is conducted based on census data 2001 and 2011, and the net migration rate is computed. The research demonstrates that there is a positive relation between inward migration and development. To support this argument, the data for per capita income, literacy rate of the population age 7 years and above, and the unemployment rate for years 2001 and 2011 are collected from various sources. This paper will also highlight the four phases of demographic transition in India. The data from the World Bank is collected to identify any changes in the birth rate per thousand, the death rate per thousand, and the life expectancy at birth from 1901-2011. The age dependency ratio for 2001 and 2011 is compared for poor and rich states. The expected future consequences of changes in the age dependency ratio are also analyzed in conclusion. The paper also discusses the limitations of migration and the policies that can slow down the migration phenomenon.

Prevalence and Correlates of Mental Disability among Elderly Population Residing at RuralBlock of Cuttack, India

Introduction: India is in demographic transition phase with increasing proportion of geriatric population. Along with chronic ailments during old age, mental health is also a growing matter of concern and often neglected. Aim: The present study was conducted to estimate the burden of mental disability among elderly people. Materials and Methods: This was a community-based, cross-sectional study was carried out among the elderly people (aged 60 years and above) residing at villages of Barang block of Cuttack district, Odisha, which was a rural field practice area of Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS), Odisha from October 2013 to March 2014. The information regarding sociodemographic characteristics, family type, financial support, any existing disease was collected. Indian Disability Evaluation Assessment Scale (IDEAS) was used as a tool to assess mental disability among elderly participants. The data was entered into Microsoft Excel sheet and analysed using SPSS software 21.0. Chi-square test was used, and the statistical significance level was fixed at p<0.05. Bivariate analysis and odds ratio were calculated, and the statistical significance level was fixed at p<0.05. Results: Among 793 participants, majority were female (51.3%) and in the age group of 60-69 years (53.0%). The mean of total IDEAS score was 6.14±2.19 and global IDEAS score (total IDEAS score + duration of illness) was 9.38±2.44, which represents moderate to profound disability. The prevalence of mental disability was 16.1%. Mental disability was found 3.0 times more among 70 years and above aged people (p<0.001), 2.2 times more among those who had diabetes (p=0.007) and 8.5 times more among those who had respiratory diseases (p<0.001) which was statistically significant. Mental disability was found to be 1.4 times more in those whose spouses were dead or separated (p=0.0512), but was not statisticallysignificant. Conclusion: This study showed the prevalence of mental disability was more among females and it was significantly associated with increasing age and presence of chronic diseases. There is a need to raise awareness in public about unmet needs of geriatric mental health and an integrated approach should be taken regarding preventive and curative mental health care of geriatric people.

Demographic Indicators in the Registers of Marriages of the 18th Century Parish of Miholjac

This paper, using historical demography methods, as well as quantitative, analytical and descriptive methods, determines, analyses and interprets the demographic indicators contained in the registers of marriages of the 18th century Parish of Miholjac. In addition to identifying the corpus of the data contained in the registers of marriages, to be potentially used as indicators of certain demographic facts relating to the past of the population of the 18th century Donji Miholjac and its immediate surroundings, the paper also determines the annual, seasonal, monthly and daily distribution of marriages and examines the level of the impact which social, religious, cultural, and economic factors had on entering into marriage. The assumption that the population of the 18th century Parish of Miholjac did not enter the demographic transition phase, in other words that it exhibits characteristics specific to pre-transitional societies, is verified by determining the age of newlyweds when entering marriage and by analysing remarriages.

Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits.

Human populations in many countries have undergone a phase of demographic transition, characterized by a major reduction in fertility at a time of increased resource availability. A key stylized fact is that the reduction in fertility is preceded by a reduction in mortality and a consequent increase in population density. Various theories have been proposed to account for the demographic transition process, including maladaptation, increased parental investment in fewer offspring, and cultural evolution. None of these approaches, including formal cultural evolutionary models of the demographic transitions, have addressed a possible direct causal relationship between a reduction in mortality and the subsequent decline in fertility. We provide mathematical models in which low mortality favours the cultural selection of low-fertility traits. This occurs because reduced mortality slows turnover in the model, which allows the cultural transmission advantage of low-fertility traits to outrace their reproductive disadvantage. For mortality to be a crucial determinant of outcome, a cultural transmission bias is required where slow reproducers exert higher social influence. Computer simulations of our models that allow for exogenous variation in the death rate can reproduce the central features of the demographic transition process, including substantial reductions in fertility within only one to three generations. A model assuming continuous evolution of reproduction rates through imitation errors predicts fertility to fall below replacement levels if death rates are sufficiently low. This can potentially explain the very low preferred family sizes in Western Europe.

Determinants of quality of life among the elderly population in urban areas of Mangalore, Karnataka

Introduction: India is going through a phase of demographic transition progressing to population aging. Poor health-related quality of life (QOL) among the elderly is often associated with physical deterioration, psychological trauma, and mental weakness. The rise in the social and health requirements of older adults has to be addressed optimally and comprehensively. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out on elderly individuals of urban Mangalore to determine their QOL. The multistage sampling design was used to obtain 384 elderlies aged 60 years or older. Results: The average QOL was observed among 74.3% of the elderly (mean score: 80.28–91.1). The factors such as age of the individual, gender, marital status, living status, education, occupation, socioeconomic status, interaction with people, use of mobile phones, and social media determined the QOL of the elderly (P

Depression and its associated risk factors among elderly in an urban area: A cross- sectional study

Introduction: The world's population is ageing rapidly. India too, is in a phase of demographic transition and there has been a sharp increase in the number of elderly persons. Getting older can bring many health challenges to the elderly including neuropsychiatric disorders. Among the neuropsychiatric disorders, depression is the commonest and poses a substantial public health problem contributing significantly to the global burden of the disease. This study was conducted with the objective to determine the prevalence of depression among the elderly and to find out the associated factors. Materials and Methods: A community based cross sectional study was conducted among the elderly residing in the Urban Field Practice Area of Community Medicine Department, RIMS, Imphal from October 2014 to September 2016. Data was collected by interview method. Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) was used as a screening tool to rule out dementia. Geriatric Depression Scale-30 (GDS-30) which was translated into the local language was used to identify those individuals having depression. Descriptive statistics such as percentages, mean and standard deviation were used to summarize the data. Chi-square test was used for testing the association between depression and selected socio demographic variables. Results: The prevalence of depression was found to be 29.4% in this study. In Univariate analysis age, education, occupation, marital status, type of the family, financial dependency, health condition and limitation of daily activities were found to be significantly associated with depression. In multivariate analysis only age was found to be significantly associated with depression. Conclusion: Depression is common in this study area and more so among oldest old, illiterates and widowed elderly. These study findings can help program managers implement a more comprehensive strategy in this community for timely interventions to promote mental health and prevent geriatric depression.

Clinical and etiological profile of epilepsy in elderly: a hospital-based study from rural India.

To determine the clinical profile and etiology of epilepsy in elderly patients in rural population of India which is in a phase of demographic transition with steadily growing geriatric population. A cross-sectional, prospective, hospital-based clinicoepidemiological study was performed from October 2014 to November 2015. Patients having onset of epilepsy after 60years were incorporated in the study. We excluded the acute symptomatic seizures. One hundred and ten patients were enrolled and were divided into three standard subgroups: subgroup A (aged 60-70), subgroup B (aged 71-80), and subgroup C (aged 81-90). Out of 110 patients, 72 (65.45%) were male and 38 (34.54%) were female. The most common etiology was cerebrovascular disease (46.36%), followed by focal cerebral calcifications single or multiple (11.81%), tumors (9.09%), trauma (6.36%) dementias (6.36%) and unknown (16.63%). In our study, the frequency of epilepsy decreases with advancing age which was 77.27% in group A (less than 70years), 16.36% in group B and 6.36% in group C (70-90years).The most common type of seizure in the group studied was focal 59.09% followed by generalized seizures 37.27%. Hypertension was the most common co-morbidity found in 40 (36.36%) patients. The present study proposes that epilepsy in the elderly patients have etiological relationship with stroke, focal cerebral calcifications, tumors and dementias. CNS infections account for a significant number of cases of remote symptomatic epilepsy in elderly in our region where neurocysticercosis is endemic.

Women’s work in urban Bangladesh: do types of organizations matter?

Purpose Women’s participation in the formal labour force has increased over the past three decades and continues to do so in Bangladesh. This paper aims to look at trends in that phenomenon and how it has been influenced by privatization in the economy and the social transitions that have occurred during this process. Design/methodology/approach The findings are based on a survey of women in large formal sector organizations in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study focuses on the adjustment of women in various ranks to work in different organizations – public, non-profits, and private – and makes comparisons among these workplaces. Seven individuals were interviewed and filled out questionnaires on work–life balance and job satisfaction. Findings Results show that although private organizations pay better, non-governmental institutions evoke a greater sense of employee commitment to organizational mission and public organizations provide women with a greater perception that their work is valued and respected. It is found that stated and implemented policies with respect to family-friendly work environments are variable. Research limitations/implications The sample size has some limitations that were addressed through interviews. Practical implications Each type of organization has its own set of advantages and setbacks with respect to work-life balance and job satisfaction, pointing to the need for concerted policies that could encourage women to choose and remain in their professions. Originality/value Work–life balance is a new concept in developing countries. As they go through the second phase of demographic transition, this is a key factor in stabilizing population growth. A comparison of the three types of organizations as workplaces for women has not been done. The phenomenon is not unique to Bangladesh and has lessons for many developing countries.

Quality of life and sociodemographic factors associated with poor quality of life in elderly women in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.

India is going through a phase of demographic transition leading to population aging and feminization of aging resulting in increased proportion of elderly women than men. Problems faced by the elderly women are more critical than men due to family and social conditions prevailing in India. The study made an attempt to assess the quality of life (QOL) using the World Health Organization QOL (WHOQOL-BREF) scale and sociodemographic factors affecting QOL of elderly women residing in a community setting in South Kerala. A community-based, cross-sectional study to assess the QOL of elderly women using WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire. Data were collected from 160 elderly women. 2.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.07-4.84) of the study participants were having "very good" QOL. 38.8% (95% CI: 31.2-46.4) had "good," 43.1% (95% CI: 35.4-50.8) had "poor," and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.98-21.22) had "very poor" QOL, respectively. QOL was least in the psychological domain followed by physical and health-related, social, and environmental domains. Logistic regression revealed age above 70 years (adjusted odds ratio [OR] - 11.3), nonpossession of property (adjusted OR - 8.99), neglecting attitude by family (adjusted OR - 6.9), and absence of visit by friends and relatives (adjusted OR - 9.9) as risk factors, whereas residing in the urban area as a protective factor (adjusted OR - 0.1) for poor QOL. It is possible to improve the QOL of elderly women by providing financial security, ensuring care, and by enhancing social relationships of elderly women.

Demografski razvoj otoka Brača i sklonost otočana iseljavanju

Demografski razvoj otoka Brača i sklonost otočana iseljavanju

A dinâmica demográfica e a produção do espaço urbano em Porto Alegre, Brasil

Resumo A dinâmica demográfica de Porto Alegre (RS) caracterizou-se, na última década, pela redução da taxa de fecundidade, o baixo crescimento populacional e o aumento do contingente de idosos, segundo os dados do Censo Demográfico do IBGE (2010), indicando, portanto, uma etapa de transição demográfica. Nesse sentido, o trabalho visa relacionar a transição demográfica com a produção do espaço urbano de Porto Alegre, no período intercensitário de 2000 a 2010. Procura-se analisar a produção do espaço urbano, especificamente da promoção imobiliária, identificando as relações entre o crescimento urbano e o crescimento demográfico com as tendências de configuração espacial da cidade.

SINGAPORE'S DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, THE LABOR FORCE AND GOVERNMENT POLICIES: THE LAST FIFTY YEARS

The trajectory of Singapore's population size and composition can be mapped out with its progression through the various phases of demographic transition from high birth and death rates in the post-war years to very low birth and death rates today, all within the context of rapid economic and social development that has taken place in the past 50 years. Population planning has been integral in Singapore's national development strategy, balancing the economy's needs for more and better qualified workers with social considerations such as the dependency burden and the integration of large numbers of foreigners in a global city-state. This paper considers Singapore's population and manpower planning policies, with an account of the country's passage through the various stages of its demographic transition, and how its working age population composition has evolved. Population and labor force policies are examined with specific consideration of the social, economic and political implications resulting from those policy choices. A final section considers the challenges for the future stemming from these demographic trends.

Population Distribution Pattern of 76 Provinces in Thailand: Application of Factor Analysis

Thailand is in the demographic transition phase. The shape of population pyramid is shifting from stationary to contracting pattern. Age-sex distribution may vary by province. This study explores and describes the population distribution pattern of 76 provinces in Thailand using data from 2000 Thai population census. Factor analysis, a multivariate statistical method, was used to cluster provinces, based on pattern of age-sex distribution of the population. The study found three distinct patterns of population distribution in Thailand. Twenty-seven southern and northeastern region provinces, mainly bordering Myanmar, Cambodia or Malaysia, share the classical pattern of population distribution. The majority of central region provinces, and also Phuket from the south share a similar population distribution pattern which peaks at the young age group. So too, most of the northern region provinces share another pattern that dips at the young age group. In conclusion, this study found that population distribution is not symmetrical across Thailand. The factor model approximated well this variation and clustered the provinces in three patterns. The method applied in this study is straightforward and can be used in future demographic studies.

The Peak Expiratory Flow Rate (PEFR): the Effect of Stress in a Geriatric Population of Chennai- A Pilot Study

India is in a phase of demographic transition and it has acquired the label of “aging nation”, with 7.7% of its population being more than 60 yrs old. Among them, 81 % complain of increasing stress and psychosocial problems [1]. The elderly people are subjected to varying levels of insecurity and depression. A stressful lifestyle, along with environmental pollution and respiratory infections, is known to have adverse effects on the lung functions. PEFR, as a measurement of the ventilatory function, was introduced by Hadorn in 1942, and it was accepted in 1949 as an index of spirometry [2]. The peak expiratory flow emerges from the large airways within 100-102ms from the start of a forced expiration and it remains peaked for 10ms [3]. The normal peak flow is 450-550 L /min in adult males and it is 320-470 L/min in adult females. PEFR is the reflection of the functioning of the larger airways and any amount of stress/ infection/ inflammation in these airways causes adverse reactions. This study hypothesized that stress has a negative effect on the PEFR in elderly subjects.

Demographic Consequences of the ‘Closing the Gap’ Indigenous Policy in Australia

The demography of Indigenous Australians is distinguished from that of other Australians by relatively high mortality and fertility leading to very different composition by age. This is beginning to change as movement towards a convergence in vital rates is observed. In the meantime, the Australian government has established targets for Indigenous socioeconomic outcomes that simultaneously impact on, and are affected by, the course of demographic change. This paper examines the relationship between these targets and projected Indigenous demographic outcomes that arise from incipient population ageing. The most likely scenario is movement into an indeterminate period of potential demographic dividend. If demand for Indigenous labour expands alongside reductions in age dependency this could provide for dramatic improvement in Indigenous economic circumstances. However, caution is warranted as disparities in adult mortality require long-term solutions and movement into a second phase of demographic transition appears likely to be delayed.

A single centre retrospective study to analyze and compare mortality amongst geriatric and non-geriatric population presenting to a tertiary care hospital in Delhi

Introduction: India is a country currently undergoing a phase of demographic transition. Increased fertility rate and decreased mortality rate due to advancing health care facilities have contributed to the aging population. The geriatric age group is vulnerable period of life and has health problems and related morbidity and mortality which are very different from other age groups. The present study was conducted to compare and analyze the causes of mortality among patients of geriatric and non geriatric age group admitted to medical emergency in a Government run tertiary level teaching hospital in New Delhi. Materials and Methods: The data for all the patients admitted in the medical emergency department from January 2008 to December 2008 were obtained from Medical Records Department. The age of 65 was used as a demarcation between geriatric and non – geriatric groups for the purpose of study. Total number of patients who died from different causes were noted and sub-classified according to the cause of mortality. The percentage mortality due to different causes was calculated for both age groups and compared and analyzed. Results: The study revealed that a total of 10,711 patients were admitted to the medical emergency of which 2035 were in geriatric group and 8676 were in non geriatric group. The mortality rate in geriatric and non geriatric population was 14.3% and 7.65% respectively which was significantly higher in geriatric population statistically. CAD and COPD were the commonest disease responsible for mortality among geriatric patients while the leading cause for mortality among non geriatric group was infectious disease. Discussion: The geriatric population because of its widespread economic, social and health care implications needs utmost care to decrease associate morbidity and mortality and to improve the quality of life. Geriatrics as a separate branch in not too much developed and much needs to be done in this aspect to improve the health care delivery.