Abstract Background The optimal dose intensification strategy to address loss of response associated with low infliximab levels remains uncertain. Favorable associations between higher infliximab levels and objective endpoints imply that post-intensification trough and treatment targets may have utility. This simulation study aimed to identify intensification strategies capable of achieving post-intensification trough thresholds associated with aspirational treatment targets in Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Methods A previously published infliximab pharmacokinetic model, applied to 200 simulated patients, identified those with subtherapeutic(<3.00mg/L) trough levels after 30-weeks of standard dosing, and subsequently applied ten dose intensification strategies (Figure 1) over a further 32 weeks. The proportion of simulations achieving infliximab trough thresholds associated with endoscopic remission (CD >9.7mg/L; UC >7.5mg/L) was the primary outcome, with clinical improvement (CD >7.0mg/L; UC >3.7mg/L) and perianal fistula healing (CD >10.1mg/L) representing secondary outcomes. Outcomes were stratified by intensity of dose intensification, with five deemed intensive (>10mg/kg 8-weekly). The impact of pre-intensification antibodies to infliximab (ATI) on post-intensification trough levels was also evaluated. Results The median pre-intensification infliximab trough level was 0.91mg/L (IQR 1.31). Intensive intensification strategies were more likely to achieve infliximab trough concentrations associated with endoscopic remission (UC: 34.76 v 10.56%, CD: 25.80 v 4.92%), clinical improvement (UC: 61.40 v 34.52%, CD: 39.58 v 12.12%) and perianal fistula healing (24.70 v 4.50%, all p<0.01) than standard intensification strategies (Figure 2). When controlling for cumulative (mg/kg) infliximab dose over 32 weeks, strategies that concurrently dose increased and interval shortened achieved the highest trough levels (all p<0.01). Patients simulated to have ATI prior to dose intensification had lower median infliximab trough levels at weeks 30/32 (3.38 mg/L, IQR 5.52 mg/L) compared to those without ATI (3.89 mg/L IQR 6.14 mg/L) across all dose intensification strategies (p=0.015). Conclusion This simulation-based analysis highlights the potential of using post-intensification trough level targets to guide dosing strategy and intensity. Combined high-dose, interval-shortened strategies appear to achieve higher infliximab levels, which may be important in the pursuit of stringent endpoints such as endoscopic remission and fistula healing. These findings require validation across real-world cohorts.
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